Near Death, Itch and a Downpour
8-6-25
Opening Comments
My last note was about how changing behaviors impact the economy. The feedback from subscribers was incredibly positive on the theme piece. The most opened links were the $80mm Hamptons home and the article about the internet celebrating the murder of the Blackstone partner killed in NYC last week.
I am back in Marion, MA until tomorrow and then in Southampton for a few days before heading to South Florida to pack up my son to drop him off at Wake Forest. He moves into his dorm on August 20th in what is sure to be an emotional day for the Rosen family. Hard to believe our oldest is soon to be out of the house and his sister will be one year behind him. I will be in South Florida a bit for the end of August and September but need to take my daughter to look at some colleges. I will also be heading to Park City, Utah to look at homes. Empty nest, here I come!
In light of the NYC mass shooting last week and the rise in recent incidents, I thought I would bring this story to the top of the report. It is an article about how to improve your chances in these frightening situations. Take two minutes to check it out.
I thought this stat was amazing regarding the number of millionaires who work at Nvidia. I love to see this. America is great.
Video of the Day-Credit Market Webinar with Leaders in the Market
Markets
Concentration Charts
Ethereum’s 10th Birthday
Federal Debt and Unfunded Liabilities
Consumer Confidence Today and Future in Charts
Tips Out of Control
Upper West Side Condo/$22mm Sale on Upper East Side
Goldman on Housing
Homeowners “Locked In” on Mortgages
Median Income to Buy a Home in Each State
Video of the Day-Credit Market Webinar with Leaders in the Market
Last Thursday, I moderated a credit panel with titans of the credit markets. Mitch Julis (co-founder of Canyon Partners), Steve Shenfeld (Chaiman of MidOcean) and Steve Hornstein (CIO Global Credit Advisors). We went over public and private markets in the one-hour webinar with the 3i Members community. All the panelists and audience were 3i members.
Near Death, Itch and a Downpour
The year 2006 was quite a memorable one for my family, as our first child, Jack, was born in January. Being a parent for the first time is incredibly exciting and all-encompassing. I was playing a bit less golf to spend the weekends with Jack. However, in July of 2006, I was invited to play the hot new course (at the time), Sebonack in the Hamptons. It was designed by Jack Nicklaus and Tom Doak and is a gem on the Great Peconic Bay with amazing views.
On that day, I played Sebonack with my father-in-law, John Magliocco, and Steve Witkoff. At the time, I was a member of another amazing golf course in the Hamptons, Atlantic, and was looking forward to playing the new course. I had taken delivery of my 1963 MB 220 SEB convertible just days before and was excited to drive it to the course.
It was a stunning day, and my car was not out of place with the fancy automobiles in the parking lot. The driving range was amazing, and the views of the water were stunning. We teed off of the first hole and I vividly recall hitting my 2-rescue right down the middle and a wedge to 15 ft only to 3 putt for a bogey given how fast the green was running. We were having a nice conversation, and we got to the fifth hole, and I hit a HORRIBLE drive right, into the trees. I went to find it and hit my ball back in play not thinking much about it.
By the time we got to the 9th hole, my legs were on fire. I thought I might have been bitten by ants, but there was something wrong, and just then, the sky opened up and it rained torrentially. We quit after 9 holes and had some food, and I was growing increasingly uncomfortable. It was my first time driving the old car (no anti-lock brakes) in the rain and did not realize how dangerous it was. The roof had a leak, and I was trying to get back into the garage before my car got damaged. I was going too fast, hit a puddle and skidded dangerously while making the right onto Tuckahoe Road. Had another car been on the road, I could have died.
When I got home, my leg was red and blistering. I went to the doctor, and it turns out my bad drive on #5 resulted in exposure to poison oak. Given Jack was 6 months old and there are serious dangers if he were to get it, I could not get too close to Jack for a week. What started as an amazing day of golf turned into a bit of a disaster.
Jack and I just played Sebonack again last week with one of my close friends and a big Rosen Report contributor. Thankfully, I did not get poison oak, get rained out, or nearly die on the way home. We had an amazing day at a remarkable course. By the way, having a bite to eat or drink after the round with the views is a must. If you get invited to play Sebonack, don’t delay, but also stay away from the trees on the right side of #5.
Quick Bites
Stocks bounced back Monday after a rough session Friday, and the S&P clawed back almost all of Friday’s loss on the day, despite no major news. On Tuesday, stocks sold off slightly as the ISM Services Index disappointed on the heels of the large payroll revisions Friday. As I better digest last week’s economic data and the major revisions to payrolls, I think the Fed needs to consider a cut. As you know, I have been against it given my fears of 2nd half of 2025 tariff inflation, but the slowdown was outlined by Jeffries economist, David Zervos has me changing my mind. The 258k downward revisions to May/June were the largest two-month revisions since 1968 outside of COVID. Wednesday saw the market rally (S&P +.8%) due to strong corporate earnings and Apple’s +5% stock move accounting for half the gain in the S&P. Treasury yields rose with the 10-year +3bps to 4.23% and 30-year +5bps to 4.82% post a weak 10-year auction.
I have written about stock concentrations and now tech stocks account for 55% of the market. The level is now 5 percentage points higher than the .com bubble. Does this mean impending doom? No, I don’t believe so, but it is something to consider when investing today. On a related note, the 10 largest companies have driven almost all of the EPS growth over the past couple years (2nd chart). This CNBC article suggests earnings growth for the 2nd quarter would be weak if not for the 26% increase from the Mag 7. The third chart shows the top 10 stocks make up 40% of the S&P relative to 27% during the 2000 .com era. Also of note, the last chart is yet another example of how tech has overtaken the market.
Given Ethereum is now 10 years old, I thought this CNBC article was interesting outlining how it has developed since inception. Ten years after launch, Ethereum has evolved from a scrappy experiment to the hidden infrastructure powering Wall Street’s next generation of finance. Major institutions from BlackRock to Robinhood are building directly on Ethereum’s rails, cementing its role as the backbone for stablecoins, tokenized stocks, and instant global payments. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin says the biggest disruption won’t come with fanfare — it will quietly reshape money itself as Ethereum scales to billions of users. Anyone interested in crypto will want to read this informative article that goes into detail about the history of Ethereum. In July of 2015, ETH was at 53 cents and is now almost $3,700.
I am always writing about fiscal responsibility and my concerns of massive deficits, growing debt levels, aging population, declining birth rates, and politicians unwilling to make tough decisions. Yes, the US has accumulated $37 trillion of debt, and it is growing at approximately $2 trillion each year. However, as I have written previously, that is not the full story. According to a Treasury report, the grand total of Uncle Sam’s obligations is over $150 trillion. Unfunded Social Security obligations are $105 trillion. Also, unfunded future federal employee and veteran’s benefits are $15 trillion. Note how spending has changed for the federal government over the last 60 years. Mandatory spending is dominating the budget due to entitlements and interest expense. The numbers are not sustainable, and I am not alone in my concern. Dalio, Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jone, Buffett, Fink, Sternlicht, Gross, and many others are in agreement. The fact that the US has gone from 16 workers per retiree in 1950 down to 2.7 in 2024 is a problem.
Interesting article on consumer confidence today and the future. The article suggests that consumers feel good today but are less confident of the futures as seen in the charts below. The current consumer confidence level is 133.5, well above the historic average of 103. But the future confidence index is 54.4, relative to the average of 90. The last chart is from Apollo’s Torsten Slok and outlines the share of housing, healthcare, and tuition spending growth for the last 60 years. I am constantly writing about housing affordability, ridiculous healthcare costs, and skyrocketing tuition.
I have written about my struggles with the expectation for tipping in my piece “The Rosen Report Tipping Guide,” and this article echoes concerns about the insanity of tipping today. I am all for tipping when you get amazing service, however, there are too many expectations for tipping that are unjustified. According to a recent survey by WalletHub, nearly nine in 10 believe tipping culture has “gotten out of control,” and 83% think automatic service charges should be banned. Nearly 3 in 5 Americans think businesses are replacing employee salaries with customer tips. When I go to the fish market, you are now expected to leave a tip. At one market in Florida, they flip the screen towards you, and the suggested tips are 20%, 25%, or 30%. Quite frankly, it is offensive, and it seems Americans are losing their patience on the tipping topic.
Tariffs
Tariff rates are "pretty much set," U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer says
Swiss tensions run high as clock ticks on U.S. tariff deadline
Switzerland was hit with rejigged 39% U.S. tariffs, which are set to come into effect later this week. Analysts at UBS said Friday that the direct impact on the overall Swiss equity market from the new duties would be “negative, but not destructive.” They flagged the worst-hit firms would include watch and machinery manufacturers, and some medtech businesses.
EU will delay planned U.S. tariffs for six months to allow for trade talks
Trump raises India tariffs to 50% over Russian oil purchases
Politics
Polls need to be taken with a grain of salt whether positive or negative. I happen to think Trump has done some good things recently despite not caring for him personally. A new poll came out showing a slide in approval.
Trump says JD Vance would be 'probably favored' for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
Suggests Rubio as running mate.
Trump tells Chuck Schumer to ‘GO TO HELL’ over Senate nominee deal after negotiations blow up
Trump had wanted the Senate to stay in session and clear up the backlog of presidential appointees, but a deal between Republicans and Democrats to push through the nominees fell apart. Senators went home for their August recess without confirming a slate of Trump’s nominees — leaving the president fuming.
Trump says Treasury Secretary Bessent ‘does not want’ to be Fed chair, but 4 others in running
Elizabeth Warren on Why Billionaires Are Doing All They Can to Stop Zohran Mamdani
I don’t believe Mamdani will get his agenda accomplished on raising taxes on the wealthy. Senator Warren, the reason billionaires don’t like Mamdani is not driven by taxes, it is his policies: hate of capitalism, love of socialism, bad ideas of freezing rents, defunding police, desire for “safe” drug sites, unwillingness to condemn Hamas, antisemitic comments/behavior, kicking ICE out and ending cooperation, abolishing private health insurance, spending $65mm on funding trans medical treatment, raising real estate taxes on the “richer and whiter neighborhoods,” government run grocery stores, raising minimum wage to $30/hr… Let’s not forget his desire to “Globalize the intifada.” His policies are awful, and he is bad for NYC. However, his campaign was brilliant and like AOC, he connected with the young voters though social media. I believe he will be your next mayor. Those who want to flee to Florida can call me and I can help you move down. Some interesting deals to be had in South Florida today.
Sen Adam Schiff under federal criminal investigation for alleged mortgage fraud violations
Bill and Hillary Clinton, former AGs and FBI directors subpoenaed for Jeffrey Epstein testimony
Diehard soccer fan kicked out of St. Louis stadium for wearing MAGA cap: ‘Trump is not welcome here’
UPenn Student Paper: School Caving To Trump Admin Over Men In Women's Sports Is "Fascism"
I don’t want my high school daughter sharing a locker room or shower with a biological man. I do not believe biological men should be in sports.
Middle East
Other Headlines
Not only is the labor market weakening, but consumer spending is flat while construction and manufacturing are shrinking, Mark Zandi warned, adding that the Federal Reserve will have a hard time reviving growth with inflation still above its target.
Contentious July jobs report confirms the U.S. economy is slowing sharply
Forecasts predict a dismal decade for stocks.
I have heard this before, and stocks perform. I am more concerned about the next 10 years, but who the hell knows. In recent forecasts, Vanguard projects the stock market will rise by only 3.3% to 5.3% a year over the next decade. Morningstar sees U.S. stocks gaining 5.2% a year. Goldman Sachs forecasts the broad S&P 500 index will gain only 3% a year.
Jim Cramer has an urgent message for Fed chief Powell after July’s terrible jobs growth
It’s a Scorching Hot Summer for Deals on Wall Street. Vacation Can Wait.
Busiest week for dealmaking since 2021 has bankers and lawyers scrambling
It's the Worst Time To Be an American Farmer in Decades
The current storm of rising debt, declining commodity prices and labor shortfalls has begun to echo the great Farm Crisis of the 1980s.
Palantir tops $1 billion in revenue for the first time, boosts guidance
Disney earnings top expectations as streaming, parks offset TV headwinds
Snap shares plummet 15% after weak second-quarter revenue metric
AMD reports weaker-than-expected earnings even as revenue tops estimates
Super Micro stock sinks 20% after earnings, outlook disappoint
Tesla awards Musk $29 billion in shares with prior pay package in limbo
Mark Zuckerberg Just Declared War on the iPhone
AI-powered devices, such as glasses that can see what we see and hear, what we hear will become the main devices we use, according to Zuck.
Here's How Much Palantir Pays Its Top Tech Talent, From Software Engineers to AI Researchers
I am a bit surprised by the list. Raleigh, NC, Nashville, TN, Austin, TX, Salt Lake City, UT, Portland, ME, Denver, CO, Omaha, NE, Charlotte, NC, Charleston, SC, Indianapolis, IN.
TSA preparing for "big announcement" that would radically alter the airport screening process
No longer having to take off shoes and now there is talk about changing the 3.4oz liquid limitation according to Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary.
How Florida quietly surpassed California in solar growth
For years, I was shocked that the “Sunshine State” had such little solar. Now it is far more prevalent.
Skechers is making kids’ shoes with a hidden AirTag compartment
The Full Breakdown Of Michael Jordan’s Still-Unmatched Nike Royalties In 2025
Article suggests Jordan has made over $1.8bn from Nike over the years and will make $300mm in 2025 from the shoe brand. I am thinking a line of Rosen Report shoes are in order. I am not convinced I can make $1.8bn, but maybe $100?
Here are the sneaky tactics restaurants use to scam customers: ‘It’s incredibly effective’
Whale killed off Jersey Shore after bashing boat, throwing passenger into water
Wild video shows sunbathers tackling migrants who jump off boat at a packed beach in Spain
This is an unbelievable story about drugs, crypto, hostages, partying, kidnapping, and more.
After blacks in Cincinnati beat white adults, why was there no nationwide, racial outrage?
Armed robbers target bar hoppers in ritzy blue city neighborhood: ‘Held the gun to my head’
Woman says Chicago attackers held gun to her head while demanding phone password and Cash App access
Possible mass shooting at major Florida airport stopped by sheriff’s deputies
Fort Stewart shooting live updates: 5 soldiers shot, gunman in custody
I do believe the universe is too vast for earth to be the only civilization. I am just mad that I am yet to see any UFOs myself or get abducted.
Clear video recorded earlier of a huge metallic orb hovering over a volcano.
Given AI and editing capabilities, anything is possible, but these look real. I am convinced we are not alone.
Health
NYC rehab centers overwhelmed as legal weed fueling higher wave of addiction: ‘I forgot who I was’
I believe weed is a gateway drug. I know too many kids who are addicted.
I’ve traveled the world to study brain health — here are 2 secrets to protecting against dementia
I’m a doctor — 3 toxic items in your bedroom that you should throw out ASAP, follow my 2-year rule
‘Japanese walking’ promises big health gains in 30 minutes. Health experts are skeptical
One American city has the worst air quality in the world amid alarming warning
Chicago and Minneapolis' air quality was in the "unhealthy" category, which ranks as level four of six on the Air Quality Index.
Real Estate
Looks like the Upper West Side will be getting some high-rise condos similar to Billionaires’ Row. Sounds as though it will be on West 66th Street and many residents are unhappy about it. A cond-op at the Stanhope at 995 Fifth Avenue sold for $22mm. The last purchase was $27.3mm in 2012. The 8,400 ft unit had been on and off the market for a few years. The building operates under a ground lease. I would never buy a unit in a building under ground lease.
Goldman believes housing will remain the weakest part of the economy in the 2nd half. Residential investment should fall 8% in the back-half of the year compared with the same period a year ago, Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, told clients in a Sunday note. Declines in affordability and immigration are among the key causes of weakness in the housing market, he said. “Residential investment is likely to remain the largest drag on growth,” Hatzius wrote. Hatzius said multifamily homebuilding is likely to continue to operate at depressed levels through December. At the same time, the number of new single family homes being started will contract, he said.
This article outlines how homeowners are locked in on mortgages given high rates today. Many cannot sell their homes because they have locked in lower rates, and then the new home would have a sharply higher interest rate than the current one. Per Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan, two-thirds of outstanding mortgages in the States now have a rate below 4%. Selling now would mean trading those low monthly payments for something far pricier, with today’s 30-year fixed mortgage rates sitting at 6.72%. According to fascinating analysis from Home Economics founder Aziz Sunderji, the gap between new and existing mortgage rates has grown to about 2 percentage points — the largest since the early 1980s. The bigger the gap, the harder the decision becomes to justify moving or refinancing.
Article about how much money you need to earn buy a home in each state. These numbers seem low to me. Not sure what $75k of earnings can buy you in CA or $115k in Florida.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #809©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
