Opening Comments
Picture of the Day-German Bond Yields
Boxing-Like a 4 Pack a Day Smoker
Quick Bites
Markets, Robinhood/Crypto/Bonds, Car Prices, Infrastructure Bill
Simon Property Group, Eviction Ban
Target Paying Tuition, GS Jr Banker Pay
Cuomo in Trouble, Big Tech/Anti-Semitism,
DC Murders vs Covid, Lab Leak Update
Transgender Olympic Loss, Gold or Else for Chinese Athletes
Virus/Vaccine
Data
Israel Data Is Concerning-MUST READ
Lambda Resistance
Interesting Australian Chart on Spread Despite Lockdown
Employer Vaccination Demands
NIH on Booster Shots
Florida Hospitals
Real Estate
Good NYC Update From Broker-More Strength
Central and West Boca Market Update-Insanity Continues
Miami $35mm Gloria Estefan Home Sold
Opening Comments
I was trying to take some down time, but so much going on, especially with COVID-19, I had to put a Rosen Report out today.
In PA right now and Tuesday am it was 56 degrees, while Boca was 27 degrees warmer a the same time. For those relocating to Florida, 8 months out of the year is a big win on the weather. Trust me, August-October is the worst from a temperature, humidity, rain, hurricane perspective as well as bad hair days. It is nice to be able to get out of Florida during the worst months and recommend it if you can. For some dumb reason, many of the schools start in Florida in mid-August during unbearable heat. It would be much better to start after Labor Day and go into June in my opinion.
Please take time to read the Virus section today. There is concerning data out of Israel which is imperative to understand. The section is expanded today in light of the data. I want to thank my readers for contributing to the Rosen Report and sending me tons of story ideas and market color and all the constant support. This report had input from the following readers: MD, RM, EK, JB, DG, JS and many more.
Picture of the Day-German Bond Yields
From time to time, I use DB charts in the Rosen Report. Today, I have a chart and explanation from Jim Reid which I find fascinating. People are buying German 2050 maturity bonds at negative yields and the chart shows how much you will lose based on different inflation rates by owning the bond over time. Wait. What? You buy an asset knowing you will lose money? Read Jim’s explanation below. I have been critical of the central bank actions as economies have come back to life after the shock of the pandemic. We are living in a crazy world of negative yields, rising prices for used cars and boats and people refusing to go back to work. I feel we are living in an absurd movie like “The Truman Show” and we will find out this is all a joke soon.
German 30 year yields (0% August 2050 bond) dipped into negative territory again yesterday for the first time since early February. This is not new as they spent the prior 18 months zig-zagging through zero on multiple occasions. However, during this period German inflation was generally trending down whereas today it stands at 3.1% - the highest rate for 13 years. DB Research has suggested it could top 4% before year end. Today’s chart shows what a zero coupon 30 year bond purchased at 100 today would be worth in real terms out to maturity given different average inflation rates.
Even a lowly 1% rate of inflation would lose you nearly a quarter of your money in real terms. For some perspective, an index of German government bonds has provided an average ANNUAL real rate of return of over 4% over the last 50 years. With inflation at 2% (around the new ECB’s target), this would see you get back 55 in real terms in 2050 relative to 100 spent today. Beyond this and you start to lose at least half your money in real terms. To be fair 25 year German linkers yield c.-1.7% so in some ways the holders accept that they will lose money in real terms. There are clearly other reasons for owning.
Boxing-Like a 4 Pack a Day Smoker
I pride myself on staying in shape and enjoy working out and given my father’s death at 40 of a heart attack, I have extra motivation. I was in the Hamptons a couple weeks ago and finding gyms proved challenging. With COVID-19 spiking again, many gyms required a full membership with no day passes. I found a boxing gym (Hill Street Boxing in Southampton) that allowed me to take classes. It is run by Avery Crocker and is a lot of fun and quite the work out. Although my jump rope skills are advanced, clearly, my potential as a professional boxer is on an asymptotic line approaching zero. I am pretty sure Floyd Mayweather is not concerned about hearing my footsteps to overtake him from his boxing throne.
On a Monday, I took a class at 5:30pm. It started with warm ups (stretching, jogging on treadmill, jump rope, footwork, shadow boxing and the speed bag. Well the first warms ups were easy. Based on my rope skills, one might think the speed bag would be no problem. Clearly there is no correlation between the coordination needed for rope skills and a speed bag. While on the speed bag, it looked as though my parents were brother and sister. Wow, that was hard and more embarrassing than I had hoped.
Now the gloves are on and I was hitting the heavy bag with an instructor screaming punches to hit, “1-2-3-2-1,” “1-2-1-2 roll-3,” “1-3-4-3-2.” I was confused as hell and again look like a complete idiot. Each # is assigned a punch. 1 is a left jab and 2 is a right jab for example. The people who take classes 3x week look like they know what they were doing, and I looked like a neophyte deer in the headlights looking for instruction, as I was struggling to follow. The instructor mixes boxing with calisthenics (jumping jacks, burpees, push-ups, mountain climbers and running around the gym). I started getting the hang of it, and the hour was up. I was soaked in sweat and a bit irritated I did not perform better. Truth be told, a little embarrassed as well that these twenty somethings made me look bad.
I am in the red on the right and if you look at the screen up top, you can see the # sequence of the punches you are supposed to be throwing. Let’s just say, I did not always follow the order, but it was not intentional.
Tuesday am, I woke up and was thinking, “What the hell happened?” My shoulders, forearms and back were incredibly sore, and I was laughing that I worked muscles I normally do not use.
To redeem myself, I did another class Wednesday at 8am. It was PACKED with 20 people. Again, the initial warms ups were easy and then I had to work the speed bag. I was nervous as the people on either side of me hit the bag more like Mike Tyson than I would have liked. I started off poorly again and was quite discouraged. All of the sudden, I looked less like the village idiot and actually worked the bag with a modicum of decency, pleasantly surprising myself. Then it was time to move to the heavy bag.
This class was a bit more advanced, and I was huffing and puffing like a 4 pack a day smoker (never smoked a stick in my life). The last 10 minutes was a combo of hitting the bag for 30 seconds with instruction such as “1-1-2-3-4-2,” and then 30 seconds of jumping jacks or burpees only to repeat for 10 minutes. The instructor came over a few times with pads on his hands asking you to hit using the numbers described above. When you let your guard down to punch his pad, he would smack you with the other pad to show you that you let your guard down. It was almost comical how hard it was to keep your hands up.
Holy crap. The Grim Reaper was calling my name. I was doubled over and sweating like I ran the Death Valley Ultra Marathon. I was begging for the clock to move faster to end my misery while the younger regulars looked on with horror. I think a wise man once said, “Getting old is for the birds,” (Rosen Report from 7/14).
On a side note, when you have boxing gloves on, trying to open a bottle of water is one hell of a challenge. Once opened, just holding the bottle and drinking is yet another challenge. Now I know why boxers have someone squirt water into their mouths. I was dying of thirst and struggled mightily to get any water. I’m grateful no one was taking video of this train wreck. Also of note, borrowing gym gloves is not wise. They smell like dirty gym socks. I used about a gallon of hand sanitizer after each class to get the stink off. I believe it is safe to say that my potential as a professional boxer is zero.
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday after the earnings of a major automaker and a private sector jobs report came in lower than expected. The Dow shed about 323 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.5% while the Nasdaq ticked up 0.1%. The dip for the broader market came after the S&P 500 broke a two-day losing streak on Tuesday to post a record close, bringing its 2021 gains to more than 17%. Shares of General Motors fell about 7%, weighing on the broader market, after the automaker missed earnings expectations for the second quarter. The ADP private payroll survey showed a gain of 330,000 jobs for July, well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department’s official jobs report, which typically has more impact with investors, will be released on Friday.
Robinhood shares soared again Wednesday, extending a wild rally in the newly public stock trading app’s stock. Trading was halted for volatility several times. Shares of Robinhood touched $85 at one point, an 81% gain from Tuesday’s close. In afternoon trading, the stock’s daily gain was 50% and is up 100% on the week after a rough IPO performance. The 10 year Treasury is suggesting inflation does not exist with a yield of 1.17%. I don’t get it. Despite some language in the Infrastructure Bill which could hurt crypto, Bitcoin is approaching $40k and Ehterum is back to $2,700.
New car transaction prices have reached record highs due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage affecting supplies, but don't head over to the used car lot expecting to find a deal. Prices on pre-owned models were up 32.7%, or $7,583, in June compared to last year. "While used car prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, we are waiting to see if prices are going to keep rising or if they will start to decline towards pre-microchip shortage levels," iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer. Here are the 10 cars with the largest price increases: Nissan Leaf-48.1%, Mercedes G-46.3%, Chevy Camaro-45.1%, Lincoln Navigator L-44.2%, Ram Pickup 1500-42.6%, Lincoln Navigator-42.4%, Audi A5-41.8%, GMC Sierra 1500-41.3%, Ford Mustang-41.3%, Chevrolet Spark-41.6%. What alternate universe do we live in that depreciating assets acutely appreciate meaningfully. It used to be if you drove a car off the lot, the price fell 20%, now with central bank accomodative policies and free money coupled with supply disruptions, prices of used cars are through the roof. Used boat prices are high as well given two year wait lists for new boats. I can now sell my boat for 15% more than I paid for it almost 4 years ago. No one else thinks this is a bit insane?
New cars will be required to have technology to detect drunk drivers and a system to keep children from being accidentally left in vehicles on hot days under a series of long-sought safety measures included in the infrastructure bill awaiting a vote in the U.S. Senate. Other provisions included in the 2,702-page bill are a mandate for automatic emergency braking and crash avoidance systems for new cars, and rear guards for semitrailer trucks to keep the passenger compartments of cars from being crushed in rear-impact collisions. I have not seen all the items in the bill and I am sure there is plenty of wasteful pork, but I prefer an infrastructure bill which will improve aging roads, bridges, tunnels… to government handouts paying people to play video games. This Reuters article suggests not all aspects of the bill have support. I cannot find the full $1.2 trillion breakout. It would be nice for a concise transparent report on where all the money is going from this bill and the prior bill. Make it easy for Americans to have an opinion on important matters. This is what I have uncovered, but I am sure there is a ton of waste in there too.
Power infrastructure, including grid authority: $73 billion
Passenger and freight rail: $66 billion
Broadband infrastructure: $65 billion
Water infrastructure, such as eliminating lead pipes: $55 billion
Public transportation: $49 billion
Resilience (preparing infrastructure for the impacts of climate change such as floods and other extreme weather events, and cyber attacks): $47 billion
Airports: $25 billion
Environmental remediation: $21 billion
Creation of an Infrastructure Financing Authority focused on clean transportation and clean energy: $20 billion
Ports, waterways: $16 billion
Safety, including grants to add bike lanes and other steps to protect vulnerable road users: $11 billion
Electric vehicle infrastructure, including chargers: $7.5 billion
Electric buses, transit: $7.5 billion
Western water shortage: $5 billion
Simon Property Group saw sales at its shopping malls and outlet centers bounce back to pre-pandemic levels in its latest fiscal quarter. CEO David Simon said that retail sales at the company’s properties during June were comparable to June 2019 levels, and up 80% from a year earlier. I am a bit surprised by this data point. I have been traveling extensively and when Jack is golfing, sometimes I find the local mall to get out of the heat. Every mall I have seen is very quiet. The one near me in PA has 80 stores with 20 vacancies despite the anchors (Fresh Market, Barnes & Noble and AMC Theaters) being in business. We do so much shopping on line now through our dear friend and astronaut, Bezos. No, I have never met the man, but he is handing out $100mm lately, so you can give him my # if you know him. I am available to take $100mm or any part of that to help improve the Rosen Report and buy me a new car and some fancy new shoes.
The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a new, targeted federal eviction ban to replace the one that expired over the weekend, setting up a potential clash with the Supreme Court. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new ban will apply to “counties experiencing substantial and high levels of community transmission levels” of Covid-19 and will last until Oct. 3, the agency said. The new ban would give state and local programs additional time to distribute rent relief and to increase vaccination rates, the agency said. The moratorium is expected to affect 80 percent of counties and 90 percent of the U.S. population, according to Democrats familiar with the details. It is clear Biden is not sure if what he is doing is legal as when he was asked about legality, he said, “I don’t know.” I understand what the government is trying to do here, but I am not convinced it is legal or fair. Most landlords are not super rich billionaires and receiving no or limited rent while having mortgages and R/E tax bills seems a bit unfair. Law abiding landlords will lose properties and face foreclosure given they are not receiving rent. Is this fair?
This is the headline of this CNBC story, “Target to pay 100% of college tuition and textbooks in bid to attract workers.” Target is rolling out a new education program that will cover the cost of associate and undergraduate degrees at select schools. It also will help pay for graduate school costs. The big-box retailer is the latest company to dangle perks to woo job candidates in a competitive market. Walmart, Chipotle and Starbucks offer similar debt-free education programs. This is fantastic for workers. I am not complaining. However, does anyone think such perks will not raise the price of goods? This does not sound “transitory” to me. In order to “woo” candidates, they are paying for tuition. No inflation to see here.
Junior bankers at Goldman Sachs are getting a big raise. The Wall Street firm is increasing base pay for its entry-level employees—first-year analysts—to $110,000, a nearly 30% increase from the previous starting salary of $85,000, according to a person familiar with the matter. Second-year analysts are set to make $125,000, up from $95,000. Salaries for first-year associates will jump to $150,000 from $125,000. For perspective, when I started 30 years ago, my salary was $26k in Chicago. Inflation adjusted, my salary would be $47k today for perspective. This article is interesting and hits on a topic I have written about extensively. A new survey shows that many Americans say they’d be willing to take reduced salaries, give up days off or put in more hours for a job that offers a fully remote option.
I pieced together a few sources for this story so it does not flow incredibly well, but wanted to get the info out there on Governor (for now) Cuomo. The New York attorney general's investigation into sexual harassment allegations against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo found that Cuomo sexually harassed 11 women, Attorney General Letitia James announced Tuesday after interviewing 179 people. The office found that Cuomo harassed current and former state employees, as well as a number of women outside of state government, James said, as the office released a lengthy report on the investigation. James said Tuesday that her investigation found that Cuomo engaged in "unwelcome and nonconsensual touching," and made comments of a "suggestive" sexual nature. James said that the conduct created a "hostile work environment for women." Cuomo's conduct violated multiple federal and state laws, James said. “This investigation has revealed conduct that corrodes the very fabric and character of our state government and shines light on injustice that can be present at the highest level of government,” James said. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo faced mounting pressure Tuesday to resign, including from President Joe Biden, after an investigation found he sexually harassed nearly a dozen women and worked to retaliate against one of his accusers. I just saw that the Albany DA is criminally investigating Cuomo and asked ‘any victim’ of New York governor sexual harassment to contact office. The Cuomo story is on the cover of CNN, WAPO, Bloomberg. Generally, negative stories of this magnitude about a Democratic leader would not be so prominent. Biden calling for his resignation as well as countless Senators, and others. Cuomo has been thrown to the wolves for good reason. Even his loving brother, Chris, can’t get him out of this mess. Will Chris even address it? NOPE. On Tuesday night, Chris did not mention his brother, but focused on COVID and hating on Florida/Desantis. I am fine with calling out Florida, but feel his unwillingness to discuss Andrew is ridiculous. He had no problem giving glowing reports when his brother gave a good press conference and have him on his show for countless hours giving free publicity. Now it is a “conflict” to say anything against big brother despite all of his shortcomings. Chris crossed countless journalistic ethics lines with his brother on numerous occasions, but will he suffer any consequences? Governor Cuomo, the time is now to resign after years of abuse and your decisions which caused thousands of nursing home deaths. Oh yeah, the cover up of your nursing home debacle was not so great either. What was the Governor’s response to these allegations? He made an embarrassing video which denied any wrongdoing. It is in a CNN story you can find here. Watch excerpts from the video. It is like watching a train wreck. Cuomo, resign now.
There has been a serious and systemic failure to tackle antisemitism across the five biggest social media platforms, resulting in a “safe space for racists”, according to a report. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and TikTok failed to act on 84% of posts spreading anti-Jewish hatred and propaganda reported via the platforms’ official complaints system. Researchers from the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), a UK/US non-profit organization, flagged hundreds of antisemitic posts over a six-week period earlier this year. The posts, including Nazi, neo-Nazi and white supremacist content, received up to 7.3 million impressions. Although each of the 714 posts clearly violated the platforms’ policies, fewer than one in six were removed or had the associated accounts deleted after being pointed out to moderators. Facebook was the worst offender, acting on just 10.9% of posts, despite introducing tougher guidelines on antisemitic content last year. In November 2020, the company updated its hate speech policy to ban content that denies or distorts the Holocaust. However, a post promoting a viral article that claimed the Holocaust was a hoax accompanied by a falsified image of the gates of Auschwitz with a white supremacist meme was not removed after researchers reported it to moderators. Write something against the Wuhan Virus origin or vaccine, it gets censored. Write something true against Hunter Biden and it vanishes. Write something anti-Semitic and it is all good. We are worried about using the term, “Pregnant Woman” on fears it might offend 2 people out of 8 billion. Writing anti-Semitic garbage and social media giants do almost nothing. Am I the only one beginning to feel we are living in an alternate universe? Hey Facebook founder, your name is ZUCKERBERG, what name is more Jewish than that?
The number of homicides in Washington, D.C., surpassed coronavirus deaths in the city by a nearly 3-to-1 ratio in July as the nation’s capital continues to grapple with an uptick in murders. There were 21 homicides throughout the month compared to eight coronavirus deaths, according to FOX5 DC. "We've put a lot of resources and time into the COVID pandemic," Trayon White, the councilman of Ward 8, said following the July 16 killing of 6-year-old Nyiah Courtney in his area, according to the station. "We're in a pandemic right now when it comes to crime in this community and we got to start acting it."
Couple related stories about the Wuhan Lab leak. As my readers know, I am a firm believer that the cause of the leak was not of natural origin in a “wet market.” I am sure China will welcome the US investigation with open arms and give up all data requested with no questions asked. My question is what are the consequences for China? Please tell me there are some major ones. COVID-19 leaked from the controversial Wuhan lab sometime before Sept. 12, 2019 — with China’s Communist Party keeping the deadly virus under wraps in the “greatest coverup of all time,” according to a damning Republican investigation into the origins released Monday. The report shows “a preponderance of the evidence proves that all roads lead” to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the bat-research lab already eyed as a source for the pandemic, according to Rep. Michael McCaul. Months ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Wuhan National Biosafety Lab requested bids for major renovations to air safety and waste treatment systems in research facilities that had been operational for less than 2 years, according to a new congressional report on the pandemic’s origins, obtained by Fox News. "Such a significant renovation so soon after the facility began operation appears unusual."
Laurel Hubbard’s groundbreaking Olympics debut didn’t quite go as planned. Hubbard, who made history as the first transgender athlete to compete at the Olympics, was eliminated after failing to record a single lift in three attempts in Monday’s over-87-kilogram super-heavyweights. For the record, I am adamantly opposed to men who have sex change operations and compete against women. I was happy to see Laurel lose handily in the Olympics. If you are unhappy with your born sex, feel free to change it. That does not bother me one bit. Competing against women when you were born a man just does not seem right to me. There have been incidents in MMA which are concerning where people were seriously injured including a fractured skull.
Be thankful to be an American for countless reasons. This article outlines the rough time Chinese Olympic athletes receive if they don’t bring home the gold. China's mixed doubles table tennis team made a tearful apology at the Tokyo Olympics last week - for winning a silver medal. "I feel like I've failed the team... I'm sorry everyone," Liu Shiwen said, bowing in apology, tears welling in her eyes. Her partner, Xu Xin, added: "The whole country was looking forward to this final. I think the entire Chinese team cannot accept this result." Their finals loss against Japan in a sport they usually dominate had left many online furious. On microblogging platform Weibo, some "keyboard warriors" attacked the pair, saying they had "failed the nation".
Virus/Vaccine
Data-I am not belittling the devastation of this pandemic when I say this point. This delta variant is contagious, but does not appear as deadly. Is part of it the virus and part due to vaccination, probably? Look at the explosion of cases vs the far smaller increase in deaths. Although the 7 day average for cases is 92k, August 3rd had 150k cases, levels not seen since January. Unfortunately, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all growing, but the good news is deaths are growing far slower than cases and hospitalizations as seen in the chart below. The good news is the latest surge has more vaccines and the US is now at 50% vaccination rate and 58% with at least one dose. More hospitals are suspending elective procedures due to the recent spike in cases. Here we go again.
Disturbing Israel Data-Alex Berenson
THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT READ. ALEX HAS BEEN RIGHT ABOUT A LOT OF COVID RELATED MATTERS AND HAS BEEN SHUNNED BY THE MEDIA. WHAT IS WRITTEN BELOW IS NOT OPINION, IT IS DATA FROM ISRAEL. I WISH THE US GAVE OUT QUALITY DATA IN A TIMELY MANNER. DOES THIS TELL US THAT THE ELDERLY IMMUNE SYSTEMS JUST DON’T ALLOW LONG LASTING IMMUNITY VIA VACCINE? ONE IMPRESSIVE RESEARCHER SUGGESTED TO ME THAT NATURAL IMMUNITY IS BETTER THAN THE VACCINE WITH RESPECT TO ANTIBODY RESPONSE AND THE BREADTH OF BOTH B-CELL AND T-CELLS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH NATURAL IMMUNITY. TO BE CLEAR, THIS IS ABOVE MY PAY GRADE, BUT FIND IT FASCINATING. IN LIGHT OF THE DATA BELOW, ISRAEL IS INSTITUTING NEW RESTRICTIONS. BELOW IN ITALICS IS ALL FROM BERENSON.
Israel has gone back to being more transparent, and the new data are now too bad not to highlight. A reminder - Israel and the United Kingdom were the two major countries that vaccinated earliest and most aggressively. And they are much better at providing data than the United States - they provide updates every day, which limits their opportunities to manipulate it. Israel is now segmenting the number of serious cases by vaccinated and unvaccinated and by age on its primary data dashboard, available here:
So here’s the chart of new serious cases each day:
As you can see, new serious cases have risen 10-fold since the beginning of July - from roughly five a day to about 40 over the last week. The overall number of patients has soared too - from 30 to more than 200.
But how many of those people are vaccinated? The vast majority. Israel has broken out the data in various ways at various times, but throughout July most new patients were vaccinated. In an effort to play down that reality, Israel has begun to provide data comparing RATES of serious illness in older people who were not vaccinated and those who were. And those show that as of now, unvaccinated people are still becoming seriously ill significantly more frequently than those who aren’t.
But that comparison hides a very big problem. Israel did an excellent job convincing people over 60 to be vaccinated. Only about 1 person in 15 in that age range didn’t receive at least one dose. Fewer than 1 in 10 is not fully vaccinated.
Why should you care? Because the tiny fraction of older people who are unvaccinated in Israel at this point are almost certainly materially different than the vast majority who are. As far as I know, the Israel government hasn’t broken out the differences. But given the pressure to vaccinate, a significant number of those older unvaccinated people are likely simply too sick to tolerate the vaccine - especially those over 80, where overall vaccination rates are even higher.
But if they are too sick to tolerate the vaccine, they are obviously at much higher risk from Covid than the vaccinate. In other words, ability (and propensity) to be vaccinated is likely a marker for overall health. Researchers know this is true of the influenza vaccine - once they adjust for the fact that older people who get the vaccine are healthier to start than those who don’t, the advantage the vaccine seems to offer mostly disappears.
So the comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated isn’t useful. What is useful is examining the trend among serious illness in older vaccinated people. And it is terrible. The rate of cases has risen 12-fold IN A MONTH. On July 4th, fewer than 1 older vaccinated person in 100,000 became seriously ill. Today the rate is 10 in 100,000.
Remember - comparing unvaccinated and vaccinated at this point hardly matters. THE DARK GREEN LINE IS THE ONE THAT COUNTS:
And though we cannot be sure what will happen next, it is worth noting that rates of serious illness among the vaccinated are now as high as they were among the unvaccinated only TWO WEEKS AGO. Perhaps that’s why the Israeli government is now predicting a further quadrupling of new serious cases by the end of August.
Back to Eric’s Thoughts-This bullet is better news when I consider the UK curve. I looked carefully at the UK curve and it was about 55 days before cases peaked. The UK has a slightly higher percentage of vaccinated adults than the US. Based on the UK curves, the US should peak within the next few weeks. I have articles about new vaccine mandates by many companies requiring employees to be vaccinated to come to work. I am not a believer that new lockdowns should take place or will. Vaccination rates are climbing again. It should be noted that the Delta variant appears more contagious, but less deadly. In watching videos from virologists, it seems this is what mutations do over time and deadly ones such as Ebola die more quickly because the hosts die so fast. Most adults should get vaccinated. My wife will finally be able to get her 1st shot after battling a crazy hive outbreak for 4 months which did not allow her to get one.
Interesting chart from Australia. Pretty self-explanatory, but concerning. When I look at the Sweden chart (Zero new infections on Aug 2nd), what is going on here given Sweden is mask free? Some countries are exploding and others are not? It is not clear to me what the biggest driving force is behind it. Sweden has a 40% vaccination rate, lower than the US and UK, but higher than Australia.
Concerning Newsweek story on Lambda. The Lambda variant of COVID-19 may be more resistant to vaccines and is highly infectious, researchers at Japan's University of Tokyo have warned in a new scientific paper published on July 28. The study is yet to be peer reviewed. Like the Delta variant, Lambda is highly transmissible but Japanese researchers believe that three mutations in the variant's spike proteins make it more resistant to antibodies induced by vaccination. Lambda, which is also known as the C.37 variant, is responsible for 1,037 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to data from the GISAID Initiative, which promotes the rapid sharing of information about influenza and coronaviruses.
One hospital CEO speaking in a roundtable said in his hospital(s), approximately 25 percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations are not from COVID. Several pediatric studies have found this to be 40-45% for child hospitalizations. This suggests to me, some people go to the hospital for a broken leg or a procedure and are tested and they happen to be positive, but are not in the hospital for COVID-19. Why not disclose more data to the public. Everything is intended to scare the crap out of people. I am not suggesting things are good, but I am suggesting the lack of transparency is bad.
Employers are losing patience with unvaccinated workers. For months, most employers relied on information campaigns, bonuses and other incentives to encourage their workforces to get the COVID-19 shot. Now, a growing number are imposing rules to make it more onerous for employees to refuse, from outright mandates to requiring the unvaccinated to undergo regular testing. Related Companies is the latest New York-based real estate giant to crack down on employees who are not vaccinated. The Manhattan-based firm — whose marquee properties include Midtown Manhattan’s Hudson Yards — told its 4,000 employees Monday that if they have not already been vaccinated they will be required to get at least one jab by Aug. 31 — or be fired. Last week, major companies including Alphabet Inc's Google, Uber Technologies Inc. and Facebook Inc said all their U.S. employees must get vaccinated to step into offices. McDonald's also said that masks were always mandatory for staff and customers who were not vaccinated.
The head of the National Institutes of Health said Monday there is no reason to believe at this point that Americans will need to get booster shots for the COVID-19 vaccines. “I would say right now, there is not evidence that we need to go ahead with boosters in the United States, but that’s an ongoing debate,” NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”
The number of hospitals reporting critical staffing shortages is climbing swiftly in Florida, where a highly contagious Covid-19 variant is filling beds fast. Florida has 13% of its facilities reporting a shortage of medical personnel, up from 4% a week earlier, according to U.S. Department of Health & Human Services data. The one-week jump of about 9 percentage points was the most in the country, the data show.
Real Estate
I received a NYC market update from Jared Halpern, a R/E broker from Douglas Elliman. As you will see, NYC is rebounding in many areas. Trophy penthouses continue to get snatched up through summer, leaving very few options now, and in the coming years for buyers. Jared shared this link with a Tribeca PH which is under contract with an asking price of $50mm.
The pipeline for new development downtown remains bleak, and domestic buyers recognizing the impending scarcity are taking advantage well before the international buyer pool hits the ground this fall. Now my last five deals under $4M have gone to bidding wars. Rental market is insane, studios and one bedrooms back to pre-covid pricing in a lot of neighborhoods and barely last a day on the market.
Central and West Boca Market Update-Edmund Bogen Douglas Elliman
This morning there were 799 homes listed for sale on the MLS in Boca Raton (a record low) at the same time pre-pandemic, there were approximately 3,500 listing. Today, there are over 7,200 real estate licensees who live in Boca (over 9 licensees per listing). This does not include brokers from other areas who sell in Boca. Yes, the market is over brokered. I am in shock at prices for Central and West Boca today. Pre-pandemic, there was a glut of homes on the market. I would never pay so much to be in these locations, but people are getting priced out of East Boca. When I moved to Florida exactly 4 years ago, you could buy a ton of homes in Central or West Boca for a fraction of today’s prices. Like it or not, people are moving to South Florida.
7709 Woodduck Drive in Boca West Country Club sold last Friday for $5.5M (by Bogen). In the clubs 30-year history (and nearly 3600 homes) this price shattered all previous records by nearly $2M. Home prices are going for a massive amount over previous records in virtually all communities. In my area, a home went for $24.5mm and I thought it was overvalued at $18mm. When I moved 4 years ago, you could have bought a house similar to the $24.5mm house for approximately $11mm.
Addison Reserve has two active listings (at the time of this writing). The market in that community last year at this time had 20+ listings.
St Andrews Country Club has 22 listings on the market - 12 of which are for $4M or higher. 6 years ago the highest sale in that community the previous 2 years was $2M. There are generally 65 homes for sale in St Andrews which has a total of 732 homes.
Boca Bridges (WEST Boca) just hasu a 7,500 sq ft. house list for $4.25mm which was $1mm more than it sold for less than a year ago and there is significant interest at these elevated levels. It is approximately 10 miles west of the beach. Today between Boca Bridges and the Bridges (two neighboring communities in West Boca), there are 1,300 homes and a total of 16 listings. That is 1.25% of the market listed and generally those markets saw approximately 8% of homes listed. Yes, this market is insane.
Miami Mansion
Gloria and Emilio Estefan sold their Star Island “guest house,” a nearly 8,000-square-foot estate at 1 Star Island Drive, to an LLC managed by Tri Star Sports & Entertainment Group in West Hollywood. The property traded for its most recent asking price of $35 million. The six-bedroom, eight-and-a-half-bathroom house is at the entrance to Star Island and immediately adjacent to Sean “Diddy” Combs’ mansion. The rapper and entrepreneur owns his home through an LLC that is managed by Tarik Brooks, president of Combs Enterprises. The buyer of the Estefans’ home is also managed by Brooks, as well as by Margaret Stephens, controller at Tri Star. The entity financed the purchase with a $20.7 million loan from Bank of America.