Opening Comments
Picture of the Day-The Fish That Wasn’t
My 1st Podcast-Crypto Sensei
Quick Bites
Markets, Inflation, Jobs, Evergrande
Can’t Fail, Smollett, Chicago Murder
US Homicide Rates, Non-Citizens Voting
CNN Producer Child Sex Training, Massive Storm
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Data-Significant Deterioration, but Recent Flattening-Charts
Omicron in 25 States
MI Worse Than Ever
Pfizer on Booster
Real Estate
Quick Comments-Aman NYC
Wealthy Moving to Puerto Rico
Retiring to Mexico on the Cheap
Murdoch Bought a $200mm Ranch
Opening Comments
The feedback has been solid on the recent Rosen Reports. Opens are hovering in the 60%+ range, and I continue to have deliver-ability issues for 20% or more of my readers. My loyal readers give me constant ideas for stories, and I try to respond to 100% of the emails, texts and calls I get after each report. If I miss you, it is only because your messages ended up in spam. Please remember that Gmail and others truncate the Rosen Report and you need to hit “view entire message.”
I have to take my son, Jack, to Memphis for a golf lesson on Sunday afternoon and will return Monday night in and out of Miami. The result is an abbreviated Rosen Report and an early send. Given there is a one hour podcast in the report, I hope readers listen as I believe it is informative on the crypto space.
Thankfully, Jack’s coach, Jeff Smith, is an amazing golf mind or trust me, I would not be going to Memphis for 19 hours for a total of 4 hours of instruction. Note to self, it would have been far cheaper if Jack stuck with chess. As an aside, Jeff Smith teaches Viktor Hovland (#7 in the world), Patrick Rodgers, Aaron Wise, Brandon Wu, Dylan Wu, Max Grayserman and other pro golfers. Quite frankly, it is a little irritating how quickly Jeff can diagnose your golf issues. In short order, he has Jack, my son, swinging like a pro. Jeff works with juniors through his Course Kings program for those who want to discuss it, reach out to me. I won’t dare let Jeff look at my swing, or he may make me cry. My days of good golf are in the rear-view mirror. However, Taylor Made sent Jack a new driver and despite me not golfing for 5 weeks due to arthritis in my foot, my 1st swing with his driver was not horrific. The smash factor was low given I did not hit the center of the face. Not bad for an old, injured, beaten man. My days of 109 speed are behind me, but 107 is not humiliating for first swings in 6 weeks due to injury. I just wish the smash was 1.5.
Picture of the Day-The Fish That Wasn’t
My FORMER fishing friend, Dustin, called me Wednesday to fish on Thursday am for two hours. I said, “Sure. Let’s do it. I will call you later to set it up.” I called him 3 times and texted him Wednesday evening and no word back. On Thursday, without me, my former friend caught 4 wahoo, my single favorite fish. He went to sleep early and turned off his phone. He texted me at 5am and I missed it. I would punch him, but would hurt my hand given his 485 lb bench press. It is wahoo season folks. Catching a big wahoo is exciting and Dustin caught a 51lb wahoo in my back yard without me. My record is 48 lbs and is below Dustin’s winning fish.
Crypto Sensei-My 1st Podcast-Please read below before watching
This Youtube link entitled, “Crypto Sensei,” is my first video podcast. I am not sure why, but when I click the Youtube link, it does not start at the beginning. You may need to click on the bar on the bottom to reset it to the start. The video was done in one take with no editing through the Riverside fm platform. Again, as always, the intention of the Rosen Report is to entertain, educate and discuss topical news in an interesting manner and the podcast is meant to be informative about the crypto world. If you want to make investments in the space, do your homework as this podcast and my comments are meant to be introductory. There is much going on incrypto and believe you will be more knowledgeable if you spend the time to listen.
The one more advanced area of the podcast is the staking section (5:30-20:00 minute) and in hindsight, I should have saved it for the end. So many readers contacted me about learning more about staking and after viewing the video, believe it would be best suited later in the podcast. However, there is much in the hour podcast which is basic. If you find the staking aspect too complex, skip it, but please watch the rest. I am fascinated by the implications of Axi International which is discussed in detail. The move to “defi” is picking up steam and will impact everyone. There is a chart below which outlines when and where in the video we discuss various topics.
My Sensei is incredibly knowledgeable on the space. I appreciate his time, help and assistance in navigating these complex matters. I am confident that crypto and the blockchain will be impacting us for years to come. We are closer to the 1st inning than the 9th in my opinion. I am hopeful that my readers have the mental fortitude to get through one hour of a podcast. I honestly believe there are some topics that you will not find anywhere else.
Unfortunately, I am a Crypto Idiot and a Techno Idiot and wasted almost one hour of time trying to get the sound and picture correct. Sorry Sensei. I will do 100 push ups for punishment. Are any readers Riverside fm experts? If so, please reach out as I need serious help on editing if I am to do this again.
Remember, hit the “heart” button if you enjoyed the Rosen Report and give the podcast a thumbs-up on you tube if you felt it was worthy of it. Below is the outline of the podcast which lasts one hour.
Quick Bites
Nothing could stop the market this week (inflation fears, geo-political risks, rising COVID cases, crypto weakness…). The S&P 500 closed at a record on Friday, capping off Wall Street’s strong rally this week, despite inflation hitting a 39-year high. The S&P 500 rose 0.95% to 4,712 to close at a record. The 500-stock average sits 0.7% from its all-time high. The Dow gained 216 points, or 0.6%, to 35,971. The Nasdaq climbed 0.7% to 15,631. The Dow rose 4% since Monday, snapping a 4-week losing streak. The 30-stock index had its best weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, this week — the best since February for both indexes. The chart below is S&P YTD.
Inflation accelerated at its fastest pace since 1982 in November, the Labor Department said Friday, putting pressure on the economic recovery and raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, rose 0.8% for the month, good for a 6.8% pace on a year over year basis and the fastest rate since June 1982. Excluding food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.5% for the month and 4.9% from a year ago, which itself was the sharpest pickup since mid-1991. The Dow Jones estimate was for a 6.7% annual gain for headline CPI and 4.9% for core. This article suggests prices for household related items are starting to go up significantly. Dollar Tree will increase prices to $1.25. This link sites the cities with the highest year over year inflation, and Tampa was tops at 8%. List is in the link.
Weekly jobless claims tumbled last week, reaching a fresh 52-year low as the U.S. jobs market climbs out of its pandemic-era hole, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 184,000 for the week ended Dec. 4, the lowest going back to Sept. 6, 1969, which saw 182,000. “A correction next week seems likely, but the trend in claims clearly is falling rapidly, reflecting the extreme tightness of the labor market and the rebound in GDP growth now underway,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The single most consistent themes I hear from employers is the difficulty/cost in hiring talent and time/cost of getting goods given supply chain issues. There is a large hotel near me which is behind budget, and I am told they cannot find construction staff.
China Evergrande Group has officially been labeled a defaulter for the first time, the latest milestone in months-long financial drama that’s likely to culminate in a massive restructuring of the world’s most indebted developer. Fitch Ratings cut Evergrande to “restricted default” over its failure to make two coupon payments by the end of a grace period on Monday, a move that may trigger cross defaults on the developer’s $19.2 billion of dollar debt. The downgrade came just minutes after Fitch applied the same default label to Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., which failed to repay a $400 million dollar bond that matured Tuesday. Together, the two companies account for about 15% of outstanding dollar bonds sold by Chinese developers. I have not been following this situation closely enough, but there are hundreds of billions in debt on Evergrande. I just feel this is another example of why it is hard to invest in China. I have zero percent of my net worth invested in the country.
New York City public schools aren’t the only ones getting lambasted over so-called “lax” standards. California school districts are being accused of coddling students after eliminating “D” and “F” grades in an attempt to reengage pupils amid floundering test scores during the pandemic. “Our hope is that students begin to see school as a place of learning, where they can take risks and learn from mistakes, instead of a place of compliance,” Nidya Baez, assistant principal at Fremont High in Oakland, told Bay City News of the new measure, which has been dubbed “mastery” or “competency-based” learning.
In accordance, Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Oakland Unified, Sacramento City Unified and other California districts are gradually phasing out sub-“C” marks for high school students. Meanwhile, pupils who flunk exams or fail to complete their homework are offered extensions or the ability to retake the rest. I want children to learn and be challenged. Dropping honors classes, giving everyone passing grades and not preparing students for the future seems like a losing proposition to me. At work, you do not get to fail and keep your job. Do you want your surgeon to be the person who received an “F,” but was given a passing grade? What about the mechanic fixing the brakes on your car? I do not want my children receiving participation trophies. Like it or not, performance matters, and teaching to the least common denominator is unfair to the children who want to learn and have the capacity for more.
Jussie Smollett was convicted Thursday of staging a hate crime nearly three years after he claimed two Trump-loving bigots beat him up, tied a noose around his neck and doused him in bleach in a misbegotten bid to raise his public profile. Twelve jurors in Chicago criminal court found the disgraced actor guilty of five of six counts of felony disorderly conduct for filing a false police report following testimony from 13 witnesses and more than nine hours of deliberation. Smollett is “100% confident that this will be reversed on appeal,” according to his lawyer. Good luck with the appeal. To me, this was a very clear case. The facts and testimony from the two actors paid for the attack were powerful. VP Harris, do you want to update your 2019 tweet? Smollett could serve up to 20 years for the crimes. BLM, stated We will never believe the police,” in reference to this case.
I will only stop writing about these horrific stories when the woke mob stops bail reform and starts being harder on violent criminals. Another bad actor with gun charges out on the streets killing innocent people. A Chicago man who loved ones said was the “epitome” of the American dream was shot dead while walking to buy a newspaper a block from his home Tuesday. Woom Sing Tse, 71, had just finished eating lunch with his wife at their Chinatown home, when he was executed by a man who pulled up in a silver car as he walked to his local store, according to WGN. Surveillance video obtained by the station showed the gunman opening fire from inside the car. The driver then got out of the car to fire another shot at Tse as he lay on the ground, the footage showed. The suspect, identified as Alphonso Joyner, 23, was later arrested and charged with first-degree murder, CBS Chicago reported. Joyner had previously been arrested four times, including two gun charges, one of which he had pleaded guilty to, the station said. No motive for the ghastly attack was reported.
At least 12 major U.S. cities have broken annual homicide records in 2021 -- and there's still three weeks to go in the year. Of the dozen cities that have already surpassed the grim milestones for killings, five topped records that were set or tied just last year. Philadelphia, a city of roughly 1.5 million people, has had more homicides this year (521 as of Dec. 6) than the nation's two largest cities, New York (443 as of Dec. 5) and Los Angeles (352 as of Nov. 27). That's an increase of 13% from 2020, a year that nearly broke the 1990 record. Chicago, the nation's third-largest city, leads the nation with 739 homicides as of the end of November, up 3% from 2020, according to Chicago Police Department crime data. Chicago's deadliest year remains 1970 when there were 974 homicides. This short video link is a must watch. It is the LAPD telling people not to come to LA. “We can’t guarantee your safety.” This is not exactly a resounding tourism advertisement.
A largely lame-duck group of city elected officials is about to saddle New Yorkers with yet another controversial measure that few have clamored for. The City Council on Thursday approved a measure to allow non-citizen, but legal, Big Apple residents to vote in municipal elections — despite vocal opposition to the “irresponsible” and “dangerous” legislation, a procedural obstacle and threat of a legal challenge. After an unsuccessful 11th-hour attempt by more than a dozen Democratic and Republican lawmakers to send the legislation back to a committee to be adjusted, the bill passed the 51-member body 33-14 with two abstentions, sending it to Mayor Bill de Blasio’s desk. I am opposed to allowing non-citizens the right to vote, despite the fact that they are legal. Once they are citizens, they can vote like the rest of us.
This is one frightening story about a CNN producer who worked with Chris Cuomo. The producer, John Griffin, solicited young girls to teach them “sexual subservience” training. Griffin allegedly sent messages to young moms telling them “a woman is a woman regardless of her age,” and that he should be the one to “train” their daughters sexually according to the indictment from the US Attorney of Vermont. The article included here discusses a 13-year-old who was directed to engage, and did engage in unlawful sexual activity. Yes, Griffin is a demented man, but what about the mother who went along? What kind of parent would agree to let their young daughter be sexually trained? In April 2020, Griffin allegedly suggested a “virtual training session” over a video chat, that would include him instructing a mother and her 14-year-old daughter to remove their clothing and touch each other. What is wrong with people? Griffin is in the hat and is pictured with Cuomo in the middle. Griffin was arrested Friday by FBI agents after a federal grand jury in Vermont charged him with three counts of attempting to entice minors to engage in unlawful sexual activity. Griffin has three kids according to his Twitter account.
A monstrous tornado, carving a track that could rival the longest on record, ripped across the middle of the U.S. in a stormfront that killed dozens and tore apart a candle factory, crushed a nursing home, derailed a train and smashed an Amazon warehouse. “I pray that there will be another rescue. I pray that there will be another one or two,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said, as crews sifted through the wreckage of the candle factory in Mayfield, where 110 people were working overnight Friday when the storm hit. Forty of them were rescued.
“We had to, at times, crawl over casualties to get to live victims,” said Jeremy Creason, the city’s fire chief and EMS director. In Kentucky alone, 22 were confirmed dead by Saturday afternoon, including 11 in and around Bowling Green. I read a CNN article which suggests the death toll could be over 100. Tornadoes scare the crap out of me. When I see a waterspout (tornado over the water) when I am fishing, I gun my boat in the other direction.
Other Headlines
Senate passes bill to allow debt ceiling increase without filibuster
Everbridge plunges by almost 50% after CEO resigns from software company
LVMH Has Thrived During the Pandemic. The Luxury-Goods Group’s Gains Can Continue
$75,000 Bonuses Are Headed Into the Pockets of Hilcorp Energy Workers
Elon Musk, Other Leaders Sell Stock at Historic Levels as Market Soars, Tax Changes Loom
Tesla's Elon Musk says he is 'thinking of quitting' his jobs
How to Lose $2 Billion in 10 Years: Unpaid Bills Pile Up for Former Hedge-Fund Star
There are countless incredible stories about this former high flyer, Phil Falcone. He was on the top and has fallen to new lows.
Spam sales hit record high for seventh straight year in 2021, says Hormel Foods CEO
2 Amazon warehouse deaths confirmed in Illinois after collapse during severe storm
G-7 warns Russia of ‘massive consequences’ if it attacks Ukraine
The Metropolitan Museum of Art is removing the Sackler name from galleries
Most of 54 dead in Mexico truck crash were from Guatemala, Mexico says
LAX-Bound Flight Makes Emergency Landing In OKC After Man Assaults Flight Attendant, Air Marshal
Brian Williams Quits TV: America In 2021 Is "Unrecognizable"
Eric Adams warns BLM leader Hawk Newsome not to mess with NYC
Biden, Harris led frenzy to amplify Jussie Smollett's false hate crime claims
The article shows tweets sent out by many when the “incident” took place
U.S. wins appeal to extradite Wikileaks founder Julian Assange from the UK
Virus/Vaccine
Data continues to deteriorate almost solely due to the Delta variant. Cases are averaging 119k/day, but appear to be leveling off as seen below. The case growth is +40% in the US over the prior two-week period. The top 10 states for case growth are (TX+162%, CT+155%, MO+123%, NJ+103%, CA+100%, RI+94%, OK+94%, NC+90%, SC+82%, KY+79%). Five of the top 10 states listed are above the US average vaccination rate of 61%. Hospitalizations are over 65k and are +23% over the prior two weeks. The states with the fastest growing hospitalization rates are (CT+81%, DE+71%, RI+67%, NJ+65%, MA+64%, IL+55%, DC+54%, MD +49%, NC+48%, MO+47%). Eight of the top ten states listed are above the US average vaccination rate. Daily deaths climbed 31% to almost 1.3k after a recent low of 918. On a regional basis, it seems we are peaking as the Midwest, Northeast and West are flattening, while the South is still climbing.
Several southern U.S. states, including Texas, Georgia, Louisiana and Florida, have confirmed cases of the omicron Covid-19 variant as the highly mutated strain takes root in half of all U.S. states. Twenty-five U.S. states have detected cases of the new strain, a number that health officials expect to increase in the coming weeks, Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a White House Covid briefing Friday. The first omicron cases in the U.S. were detected mostly in vaccinated people who experienced mild illnesses, with only one hospitalization and no deaths reported so far, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
This week Michigan had more patients hospitalized for Covid-19 than ever before. Covid-19 hospitalizations jumped 88% in the past month, according to the Michigan Health & Hospital Association. "Since January, we've had about 289 deaths; 75% are unvaccinated people," Dover said. "And the very few (vaccinated people) who passed away all were more than 6 months out from their shot. So we've not had a single person who has had a booster shot die from Covid." "We have more patients than we've ever had at any point, and we're seeing more people die at a rate we've never seen die before," said Jim Dover, president and CEO of Sparrow Health System.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said Wednesday that people might need a fourth Covid-19 shot sooner than expected after preliminary research shows the new omicron variant can undermine protective antibodies generated by the vaccine the company developed with BioNTech. Pfizer and BioNTech released results from an initial lab study Wednesday morning that showed a third shot is effective at fighting the omicron variant, while the initial two-dose vaccination series dropped significantly in its ability to protect against the new strain. However, the two-dose series likely still offers protection against getting severely sick from omicron, the companies said. Shocker. The guy who makes billions thinks we need more shots. When does it end?
Real Estate
Just a couple of quick thoughts. I am told the Aman NY has units officially for sale and one sold for $55mm. I can tell you that anything Aman tends to be amazing. The place looks remarkable and will include a hotel. It is on 5th and 57th Street, a location I would never want to live.
This is a Bloomberg article on the wealthy moving to Puerto Rico. To be clear, I have been to PR approximately 18 times, and there is nothing that could get me to live there. Many areas are quite concerning and having surfed much of the country, I have seen too many scary things to get me to consider living there despite the benefits. I get there are no taxes, but you have to live there. The article discusses the crypto wealthy moving there for taxes, sun and golf. Of all the people who I have spoken with who have moved to Florida in the past couple years (approximately 100), I have only spoken with one who would consider moving back to NY, NJ, CT, IL, CA. Back to the PR story. The influx of newcomers is causing waves in the real estate market, particularly in the resort communities. Dorado has seen the most growth, with prices almost tripling, according to Priscilla Ferrer, a Puerto Rican broker and appraiser. “It’s absurd,” she said. “These luxury properties are getting bought for an emotional rate and not an economic rate.” Francisco Diaz Fournier, founding partner of Luxury Collection Real Estate, said it’s now common to see properties sell for more than $20 million. “Right now we are selling a home in Dorado Beach for $27 million, and another one is going for $29 million,” he said.
I write a good deal about expensive homes and found this CNBC article about a low-cost retirement location fascinating. A 68-year-old woman lives on $620/month in Mazatlan, Mexico, and the article details her expenses. I am not suggesting my readers retire to Mexico, but do suggest people think outside the box as there are beautiful places to live in the world which are not as expensive as the US. The woman owns a 2 bed/2 bath home for $160k and her expenses are outlined below.
Media mogul Rupert Murdoch and his wife, Jerry Murdoch, have purchased a Montana cattle ranch spanning about 340,000 acres from Matador Cattle Co., a subsidiary of Koch Industries. The price was roughly $200 million, making it the largest ranch sale in Montana history, according to people with knowledge of the deal. Of Beaverhead Ranch’s 340,000 acres, 113,000 are deeded acres. The ranch includes grazing rights on around 226,000 leased acres. The property spans 50 miles, from north to south, crossing two separate counties. Mr. Murphy said the ranch is home to around 4,000 elk, 800 antelope and 1,500 mule deer. There is also a 28-mile-long creek stocked with trout. The property has 25 homes, mostly for employees. “This is a working ranch,” said Mr. Bernall.