Opening Comments
Today’s piece is special for me. My daughter wrote a song last year, and we had it recorded in a studio. We then made a music video, and it is the Video of the Day today. I ask you to watch and listen and help get the word out. We have not shared this video with anyone yet. Rosen Report readers are the first to see it.
My last few days have been quite tumultuous. The result will be an abbreviated note and hope it gives you more time to look at my daughter’s video. My fancy pants new computer blew up as I was replacing the video card with the assistance of the builders. No access to a computer despite spending 7 hours with tech support. My readers know about my ADHD and my legendary lack of ability to fix things. One could see that there would be trouble when my computer looked like the pictures below. I am sending it back to them and will be piecing together things for a while until I get it back. Remember, my laptop screen cracked and am without that too.
Additionally, I had a meeting near Boston and flew up Sunday am. I had written about ticket prices which were lunacy. Round trip I spent 55,000 miles and $450. The cheapest round trip I could find was basically $1,000. On a positive note, I rented a car for a day for $81. All the taxes and fees were almost $30 of that amount. I got to see some of my close friends, Newcomb and Chili and their incredibly cool sons. In a crazy story, I met them through the Rosen Report at the beginning of the pandemic and now we are as thick as thieves and some of my favorite people on the planet. Due to travel today, I am sure I missed a few news events. Apologies.
Video of the Day-My Daughter, Julia’s First Music Video
Dad, WHO Sings That Song?
Quick Bites
Markets
Powell Comments/Rates
Technological Innovation/Growth
Trump/Republicans
NYC Crime
Lightfoot/Chicago
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine-Case Growth Accelerating
Data
New Zealand Data Deteriorating for Vaccinated
COVID 3rd Leading Cause of Death in US
Real Estate
General Comments
$363mm Miami Land Sale
Best Job Markets
Video of the Day-My Daughter, Julia’s First Music Video
My 14-year-old daughter, Julia, wrote a song, I’m Not Even Sorry, and I had my friends at Insight Productions shoot and edit her first music video. Hopefully, this is the start of something for Julia who enjoys singing, guitar, piano and writing music. Her voice is really getting stronger. I hope you like what you hear and if you do, please forward to friends. If you have kids, get them to listen and make a Tik-Tok to it or whatever the hell kids do to make things go viral. If you know anyone who has pull in the music game, don’t be shy. I am looking for assistance from readers to help Julia get a push in the right direction. I had not sent the video to anyone prior to hitting send today. Our families are just seeing it for the 1st time with you. The link to the video is here or if you hit the picture below.
Dad, WHO Sings That Song?
My close friend, Rich, invited me to the WHO concert on Friday night. The band formed in 1964 and Roger Daltrey is 78 and Pete Townsend is 76! Some of my favorite Who songs are Pinball Wizard, Baba O’Riley and Eminence Front, My Generation and Won’t Get Fooled Again. I had forgotten that Townsend’s brother also plays guitar with the band and Ringo Starr’s son is the long-time drummer. As a kid with two older sisters, I listened to great music growing up. Our house played Aerosmith, Bob Seger, The Stones, Billy Joel, Steely Dan, The Who and many other iconic bands. My love of music stayed with me and despite not playing any instruments as a kid, I had always wanted to learn. My wife bought me a guitar and 10 lessons when I was 40 years old, and I started playing and was hooked. The who over 40 years ago below.
I was excited to go to the concert as it has been a few years since I have been to one given the pandemic. My expectations were low given the ages of the band members and the fact that it was the first stop on the tour. I was startled by the crowd who looked more like one heading to the Early Bird Special in Boca Raton than the crowd I recalled when I was younger. It looked more like a Lawrence Welk fan base than groupies. At 52 years old, I was the baby in the room. Gray hairs, walkers and canes with people wearing Who shirts from 30 years ago which no longer fit properly was the best description of the motley crowd. The venue was the Hard Rock Hotel in Hollywood. I had never been, and it is beautiful as I believe they spent approximately $1.5bn on it. To make up for the build-out, they over charge you for drinks at the restaurants surrounding the casino.
We had great seats and the concert was better than I would have thought possible. No, Roger Daltrey’s voice was not as it was 40 years ago, and he surely did not move super well in his old man, New Balance sneakers. His full face suggested to me he was on some medication and he looks far different from the last concert I saw, but I guess I look a bit older too. Yes, he forgot the words to a “Won’t Get Fooled Again,” and Pete jumped in and had fun with it. However, Pete can still play guitar quite well, and I enjoyed singing along with some of my favorite Who tunes. The band had a 50 piece orchestra behind them for most of the songs to take the pressure off the aging rockers. The review here is fairly accurate about an aging band who has glimmers of their old ways, but a long-way from their peak. The first picture was the band in 1969 and let’s just say, the 2nd picture is them a few years ago. Clearly no leaping splits for Pete and the shirt thankfully stayed on for Roger.
Back to my guitar. It was 2016 and I was working on learning Pinball Wizard by the Who. I was sitting on my couch playing it and singing along. I did not know that my son, Jack, 11 at the time, was watching. He said, “Dad, who sings that song, it is good.”
I said, “The Who.”
Jack said, “No, dad, who sings the song?”
My reply, “The Who.”
Jack asked, “Dad, seriously?”
I said, “Dude, the band is called the WHO.”
He asked me to play it again for him and I did. He then asked to have me play the song from the band on Napster. The little bugger then said, “Dad, give me the words, I got the song.”
I had been teaching myself for two weeks watching YouTube videos and had just gotten it down, as I am not exactly musically inclined. I gave him the lyrics, he grabbed my guitar and crushed Pinball Wizard on his first try-despite the fact that his tiny hands could barely fit around the neck. I was excited and embarrassed at the same time, as Jack is indeed musically inclined. I wish I got that on video, instead, this is from when he was 13 playing it. He is much better now at both vocals and guitar.
When I was leaving yesterday, I told my daughter I was going to a concert. She asked excitedly, “Who are you seeing, anyone good?”
I said, “The Who.”
She looked at me puzzled and said, “Who?”
Jack chimed in and said, “Come on Julia; it is a band called the Who. They play Pinball Wizard.”
Quick Bites
Stocks plunged on Friday, with the Dow suffering its worst one-day loss since the throes of the pandemic, as the latest raft of corporate earnings and the prospect of rising rates spurred a wave of selling. The Dow fell 981 points, or 2.8%, to 33,811. The S&P 500 was 2.8% lower at 4,272, for its worst day since March. The Nasdaq declined by 2.6% to 12,839. Friday’s loss was the biggest for the Dow since Oct. 28, 2020. UnitedHealth fell more than 3%, shaving more than 100 points off the Dow. Caterpillar also took out nearly 100 points from the 30-stock average, dropping 6.6% on the day. Goldman Sachs, Home Depot and Visa were also big downside contributors. Those losses put the Dow down 1.9% for the week, its fourth straight weekly decline and its ninth losing week of the last 11. The S&P 500 posted a 2.8% weekly loss, marking its third straight one-week decline. The Nasdaq was the laggard this week, losing 3.8%. The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 3% on Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s suggestion that a 50-basis-point rate hike could be in the cards in May. The 10-Year Treasury closed at 2.9%. Oil dropped over 3% to $101 and natural gas fell 7% to just under $6.5. Crypto fell in unison with the broader markets with BTC -4.5%+ to $39.5k and ETH -3% to $3k. The market does not feel good, but a loyal reader sent me the second picture about the results of an investor survey and the negativity is actually quite bullish. When everyone is negative, it is a shockingly positive indicator.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the central bank’s determination to bring down inflation and said Thursday that aggressive rate hikes are possible as soon as next month. “It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly” to raise interest rates, Powell said while part of an IMF panel moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “I also think there is something to be said for front-end loading any accommodation one thinks is appropriate. ... I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.” Powell’s statements essentially meet market expectations that the Fed will depart from its usual 25 basis point hikes and move more quickly to tame inflation that is running at its fastest pace in more than 40 years. However, as Powell spoke, market pricing for rate increases got somewhat more aggressive. Expectations for a 50 basis point move in May rose to 97.6%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Traders also priced in an additional hike equivalent through year’s end that would take the fed funds rate, which sets the overnight borrowing level for banks but also is tied to many consumer debt instruments, to 2.75%. I keep giving the Fed a hard time for leaving the punch bowl out too long. They were buying mortgage bonds a few months ago with housing out of control. I just believe they could have been aggressive sooner and now believe they are behind the curve and more Fed Presidents are coming to that conclusion. This Bloomberg article suggests the 75bp move that Bullard wants is not supported.
Matt, one of my biggest contributors, sent me this fantastic WSJ Opinion piece entitled, “The World Is in Crisis, and That’s Good for the Economy-The new cold war, like the original, will drive a new wave of technological innovation and growth.) The summary is despite pessimism due to a host of issues we all are familiar with, none will stagnate long-term global growth, they will accelerate it; the reason, the global commitment to invest in technology and innovation. I thought this section was most telling: Global gross domestic product in 1900 was $3.4 trillion (in international 2011 dollars). In 2020 the figure was $112.7 trillion. During the same 120-year period, the world population grew from 1.6 billion to 7.8 billion. Less than five times as many people produced more than 33 times as much output. Much was written about expanding global defense budgets. This article is worth the read.
This story on Trump and Republicans is a surprise to no one, but I found the details interesting. In the days after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol building, the two top Republicans in Congress, Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell, told associates they believed President Trump was responsible for inciting the deadly riot and vowed to drive him from politics. Mr. McCarthy went so far as to say he would push Mr. Trump to resign immediately: “I’ve had it with this guy,” he told a group of Republican leaders, according to an audio recording of the conversation obtained by The New York Times. The confidential expressions of outrage from Mr. McCarthy and Mr. McConnell, which have not been previously reported, illustrate the immense gulf between what Republican leaders say privately about Mr. Trump and their public deference to a man whose hold on the party has gone virtually unchallenged for half a decade. According to this AP article, Trump and McCarthy had a positive call after this came to light.
Virtually all of my NYC friends have complained about quality of life for some time and it continues to deteriorate. Elections have consequences. DeBlasio was horrible for NYC, yet he was elected 3 times. Adams impressed me during the campaign, but feel he has done far less than I would have hoped and Bragg has been a disaster. Just think, NYC could have had, Tali Farhadian as DA, but the people voted her down. Please look at her impressive background and tell me why she should have lost. Major crimes are surging in both the East and West villages, turning Manhattan’s once iconic arts and culture hubs into cesspools of rampant property thieves. The Sixth Precinct, which patrols the West Village, saw an 84 percent spike in major crime rates when compared to 2021’s year-to-date numbers — the highest increase among Manhattan’s 22 precincts and nearly two times the citywide jump of 44 percent — NYPD data shows. The Ninth Precinct, which serves the East Village, the Bowery and NoHo, is also seeing an uptick in property thefts and violent attacks with the total major crime rate jumping 54 percent so far this year compared to the same time period in 2021, police data shows. In Greenwich Village: Grand larcenies more than doubled from 147 to 308
Burglaries surged from 59 to 100, or 70 percent
Robberies rocketed from 47 to 69, or 47 percent
Vehicle thefts increased from 3 to 12
Felony assaults ticked up from 32 to 41
A reporter asked Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot during a press conference Tuesday how she could even consider running for re-election after all the "harm" she's caused. Chicago reporter William J. Kelly began by saying the mayor always starts her press conferences by saying that crime is down and the "economy is booming." Lightfoot said that this wasn't true and asked him to continue with his question. The reporter noted that a police officer was recently struck and injured in a hit-and-run and that Michigan Avenue "is now referred to as the mile of fear." Michigan Avenue is a popular stretch of the city with entertainment, attractions, restaurants, hotels and shopping. Again, I was born in Chicago and started my career there and went to the University of Chicago for business school. NOTHING could ever get me to live there again. My 63-year-old sister has never lived anywhere but Chicago, and after being robbed last week, has thrown in the towel. She is planning to leave the state. Elections have consequences. Anyone dumb enough to vote for Lightfoot again deserves the ramifications.
Other Headlines
Coca-Cola Hosts Earth Day Event With Democrat Who Says Jews Control Weather
This is amazing. 5’8” and 125 pounds and will do all your chores!
Twitter is reportedly taking another look at Musk takeover bid
One can dare to dream. This deal coming to fruition would be great for America.
Musk Tries to Sting Gates With Crude ‘Pregnant Man’ Tweet
One story suggested Musk is mad at Gates for shorting TSLA. Musk is just crazy, but I could not respect him more for all he has accomplished for the world. TSLA, Space X, Boring Company, Pay Pal, Neuralink, Open AI…. He should probably dial down some of his Tweets.
Concert Ticket Prices Soar on Consumer Demand, Not Just Inflation
LA Lifeguard makes over $300,000 a year. Dozens make $200,000 plus. This is not a joke.
France's Macron wins re-election, dodges political earthquake
Joe Biden met with Hunter Biden business partner at the White House
‘We need more protection’: Mail carriers sound alarm over surge in robberies
Between 2018 and 2021, robberies of letter carriers more than tripled, and robberies involving a gun more than quadrupled.
White House readies for tough probes that would follow a GOP takeover
Sanders' team says he has 'not ruled out' a 2024 bid if Biden doesn't run
How out of touch can you be? Do we really need a person who would be 87 years old in office and hates capitalism? Please make it stop.
Florida legislature passes bill repealing Disney special tax status
Too early to know the full impact of this bill, but I think there is a decent chance it gets repealed as it does not go into effect until 6/23.
Russia’s Kramatorsk ‘Facts’ Versus the Evidence
I had written about this missile strike a couple weeks ago as there was a suggestion that it was an inadvertent Ukrainian launch which struck its own people. This story suggests otherwise. I am confident there are many atrocities in Ukraine at the hands of the Russians. However, I remain concerned that everything we see and are told is not accurate.
I found this picture in at least a half dozen news outlets, but this one highlighted some focus points. I wrote in Hidden Fees from 2-27-22 I felt Putin was not well and remain convinced that is the case. I believe he has cancer and the treatments are making him appear bloated. Many suspect it is thyroid cancer. For a man who prides himself on strength, shirtless photo ops, hockey, judo and riding bareback, he sure does not look well.
Virus/Vaccine
Case escalation continues with +52% over the prior two-week period. Cases averaged 46k/day, up from 27k/day on 4/3/22. Thankfully, we are still 95% below peak levels from mid-January. Hospitalizations remain around 15k and deaths fell 33% to 369/day.
Concerning article about vaccinated hospitalization and death rates relative to vaccinated last month in New Zealand. The vaccinated population accounts for 79% of cases, 81% of hospitalizations, and 81% of deaths between March 24th and April 21st 2022
Real Estate
Despite the fact that I believe housing price growth will continue to slow and start to drop in some areas and price points, I believe one trend will continue around the move to more favorable states from a quality of life perspective. I have hounded the theme of the migration from Blue to Red states long prior to the pandemic and was an early adopter myself (August 10th is my 5th anniversary). Literally, every day, I meet or am contacted by a family who wants to leave the tri-state, Chicago, SFO, LA, DC… Just Friday, I met two more families. One from DC moving to Texas and one from NYC. The family from Chelsea was in their 70s and never lived anywhere but NYC. The small, elderly woman said, “You just cannot live in NYC anymore. It is just not safe for me to walk around there, and I have never lived anywhere else.”
Here is an example of what is going on in Miami.
Carbone is charging $3,000 a person to attend its four-night dinner party celebrating the Miami Grand Prix in May. Major Food Group, the creative force behind the famous New York City eatery, has partnered with American Express to launch Carbone Beach, a pop-up dinner party on the sand as Formula 1 takes over the coastal Floridian city. I have been asked by many if I am going. Clearly, you don’t know me well. I am far too frugal to pay $3k for dinner.
I will also note that as the wealth leaves the Blue states and heads to the Red ones, deficits will mount. When I think of the way CA was bailed out by the tech boom and massive IPOs and taxes which resulted in 2021, it is mind-boggling. What say you now that tech has crashed? IPO activity in the Americas region completed 37 deals in Q1 2022 raising US$2.4b in proceeds, a decline of 72% in the number of deals and a 95% fall in proceeds YOY. It is not only about the proceeds of the IPOs, it is the massive wealth and capital gains realized as original holders of the stock sell. When founders or early investors sell stock, it generates BILLIONS in taxable income. CA takes 13.3% for wealthy sellers regardless if it is short-term or long-term. Remember, there are proposals for ANNUAL wealth taxes of 1-1.5% starting at $50mm net worth in CA. Not to mention proposals raising the state income tax rate to 18.05%. Why anyone with means would reside there is absolutely beyond me and I love the weather and waves.
Devin Kay (Miami R/E Broker) sent me this Real Deal article entitled, Waterfront Brickell development site of planned supertalls sells for record $363M. The parking garage was 2.5 acres and sold for $3,340 per square foot, or about $145 million per acre. The site was long planned to be a major development with two supertall towers. Florida East Coast Realty, Corigin Real Estate Group and Frank McCourt’s McCourt Global Properties planned a 1,049-foot-tall two-building project designed by British architect Norman Foster’s Foster + Partners. The plot last sold 21 years ago for $15.5mm. I believe a large condo tower will be going up in the space. Also from the article: Development sites have been trading for record prices, as out-of-state developers flock to South Florida. In Miami’s urban core, which includes Brickell, 56 properties traded for over $1 billion in 2020 and 2021, according to Real Capital Analytics data previously provided by Colliers International South Florida.
This WSJ article chimes in nicely with my theme for the past 5 years on migration from Blue to Red states. The hottest job markets in America are in five different states, but they have a lot in common. They’re in midsize cities, all with a population under 2.3 million. They’re in states with fairly low income taxes, or none at all. And their climates allow for outdoor activities all year round. They are: Austin, Texas; Nashville, Tenn.; Raleigh, N.C.; Salt Lake City; and Jacksonville, Fla. To find the areas with the strongest job markets, The Wall Street Journal, working with Moody’s Analytics, assessed 300 metro areas. The rankings measured five factors: the unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, job growth, labor-force growth and wage growth in 2021. An average of those rankings was used to determine the hottest labor market in the U.S. Larger areas, with more than one million residents, were ranked separately from smaller ones. Good charts in the link.
Impressive Julia guitar music
GM Eric, Wow! Carol and I were so impressed with Julia's performance. She sings with confidence, her voice tone is beautiful, and it is very clear that Julia has great passion and talent for music. All the best from Carol and I to Julia. Your Rosen Report continues to be my main source to find out more about the world than anywhere else. What is so special is the extraordinary data, proof and the sources that you provide for every story. All good things, Jack