Delusion & Fantasy-The Smoke & Mirrors of Social Media
4-21-21
Opening Comments
Picture of the Day
Delusion & Fantasy-The Smoke & Mirrors of Social Media
Quick Bites-Markets, Fund Fraud, Inflation, Mortgage Rates, TSLA, Global Tax, Guaranteed Income, NYC Bail, NYC Shootings, Chauvin Guilty, NYC Relaxing Restrictions, DeSantis Riot Bill, Dementia & Sleep, Matsuyama
Virus/Vaccine
R/E-Miami Condo Market, NYC Foot Traffic
Opening Comments
A great deal of commentary from my last note about Brearley and an overwhelming agreement that the pendulum has swung too far. My inbox was full! Love that, but took some time to get through it all.
As I have mentioned recently, I have been inundated with comments about readers not receiving my reports, readers opening the first send only to receive the second one, and my growing frustration with the horrific editing function in Constant Contact. A few readers suggested Substack as a better way to reach my audience and archive old work.
Today is the first attempt using the new delivery mechanism, Substack. Feedback is appreciated. It appears as though through Substack, I do not have all the editing tools, so again, the format will change a bit. For example, links to stories are no longer blue, but underlined in black. Thank you for sticking with the Rosen Report as I try to determine the best way to reach my audience. Unfortunately, Substack has limited customer support and nor phone number. Given the limitations, the new format has bullets and the story is in standard type, while my opinion is in bold as I am unable to indent as I did previously. The italics in my last note went over like a lead balloon.
If you receive this and have not been receiving it recently, please let me know. There were a few dozen readers who signed up with Mail Chimp after I moved to Constant Contact and I just realized it. MY APOLOGIES. I added you to Substack so hopefully, you will be getting regular doses of the Rosen Report now. I believe 30% of my readers were not receiving my old reports due to Constant Contact and Mail Chimp issues. Also, I am told you can check for my work on Substack if for whatever reason you stop receiving an email. I believe my reports will be posted going forward. I tend to publish on Wednesday and Sunday evenings. In my next note, I will know more after posting this Rosen Report. Remember, Gmail and other carriers truncate the email and force you to click for more. Get the word out and let’s see if we can grow this thing on the new platform. Please mark this email as safe so it does not go to spam or junk.
I recently wrote about a hot new restaurant in NYC’s UWS. It is called Dagon and an avid reader and contributor called me raving about it. “Eric, it was packed from 6-9pm with no tables available and full seating. The food was spectacular and one of my favorites in the city now.” I am heading up to the area in late May and Dagon will DEFINITELY be on my list. The UWS and UES have historically been culinary wastelands. Yes, better than Boca, but that bar is so low, being above it is meaningless. Cant wait to hit some of my favorite places this summer assuming they are not closed: Marea, Babbo, Shuko-BEST sushi in city, Striphouse-GreenwichVillage, Felidia, Union Square Cafe, Pearl Oyster Bar, Burger Joint, Junoon-best Indian food, and many others.
Some shout outs today. I had a fun night out with two of my most consistent readers, MK and SK. A new reader, Tim helped me with my picture in my theme piece and thank all those who send me regular story ideas.
Caught a nice bass the other day, but fishing has been slow in the heat. I took a one hour tennis lesson at 10am and almost died. 84 degrees with 70% humidity. It felt like 100 degrees. I started like Nadal and finished as though I was a 90 year old with two fake hips. I called it after 53 minutes. Humiliation.
Picture of the Day
A crumbling late 19th-century log cabin that survived two massive fires but is now in 'considerable disrepair' is now for sale for $575,000 - mostly due to its prime Bay Area location. The rustic log cabin sits on property that includes three parcels situated on roughly 25,000 square-feet of land. The listing describes the cabin as being 'in considerable disrepair.' The housing market is on fire in most places which leads to crazy numbers being paid for crap. Clearly a tear down for the lot. Given lumber prices are going crazy, that old wood might be worth something as well.
Delusion & Fantasy-The Smoke & Mirrors of Social Media
I have often written about the unhealthy consequences of the absurd posts on social media. Photoshop, fancy clothes, professional hair, make up and lighting skews reality. In the last week, Khloe Kardashian had a bikini picture inadvertently posted which was unedited. Her team quickly attempted to erase it from the internet, as it showed that a Kardashian is not perfect despite all the flawless photo shops and surgeries. Khloe wrote a long post explaining her position and body image issues.
I have a 13-year-old daughter who asks me a lot of questions when she sees all the perfect pictures of models with toned bodies and make up done by Picasso. I always try to explain these photos take hours to prepare, shoot and edit. The end result is a bit of smoke and mirrors, but to a young child, I can see how it is confusing. This article outlines how Kim Kardashian spends $50k month on her beauty routine. The average family of four earns $65k/year Kim spends $50k/month on trainers, lasers, suntanning, hair, makeup, hair removal, vitamins…. I am not the biggest Kardashian fan and quite frankly, it is partially due to jealousy. These people are making hundreds of millions of dollars and are as fake as a $3 bill. Unfortunately, even if I pranced around scantily clad, I am not convinced anyone would pay me anything, or I too might give it a try. Maybe they would pay me to put on some clothes?
My wife, Jill, was a fashion editor for magazines and a celebrity stylist. She dressed stars for red carpet events and movie premiers and traveled with Uma Thurman for 6 weeks around the world to dress her for Kill Bill. I remember about a dozen years ago, I came home from work a little earlier than usual and a scantily clad woman was standing in my living room. We were both startled. It was a big actress that my wife was dressing for an event, but I did not recognize her at the time without make-up or her hair done just right. It was a well known actress who shall remain confidential. Previously, I had only seen this woman on the big screen with Tom Cruise or the cover of a magazine. I had no idea who she was until later when Jill told me. Yes, make up/hair, photo shop, fancy custom clothes make people look far different from reality. The experience made me look at everything a bit differently and am more skeptical after the incident. I was a bit disappointed after I learned who it was as I expected her (unfairly I might add) to look different in person.
Below are a couple examples where the end result is far different than the original. The 1st is Jennifer Lopez before and after and the 2nd is George Clooney. Flatter stomach, thinner thighs, different skin tone, no wrinkles, different hair color, perfect skin… Both these people are attractive with or without photo shop in my opinion, but sure does create a false sense of their image with all the trickery.
When people post on social media it is of a party, new car, trip, fancy restaurant, new outfit, puppy or something fun generally. It suggests that people only have good days and the sun is always shining. This link takes you to the Kardashian’s cars with many matching outfits. Makes sense to me. Have a $500k car and buy expensive outfits and shoes to go with it. Below is Kylie Jenner in an orange outfit to match her custom $400k Lambo and $250k G Wagon. Very practical. It creates an unhealthy narrative that their life is perfect and yours is far from it. Even young girls my daughter’s age are posting photo shopped pictures to give the appearance of perfection. How messed us is that? Hopefully, in my writings, my readers find me balanced in the sense that I expose my good days and bad days and am self-deprecating when things don’t go my way.
Last week, my daughter was perusing social media and found a good friend posting pictures having fun with another girl. My daughter felt excluded and was so disappointed that she was not invited. When I was 13, I was oblivious. There was no cell phone, social media, positing of pictures/videos. If I was not included, I did not know what I was missing as I sat home on Saturday night watching the Love Boat and Fantasy Island. Who does not love Ricardo Montablan and Tattoo? I feel it is much healthier that way.
Our kids were the last in their grades to get cell phones and I am glad we waited. Now they are crack addicts for social media and need to know what their friends are doing 24/7. Over time, I am convinced studies will be done to show how unhealthy social media is for all of us, especially children. At least the Kardashians and a bunch of others have made millions off of it, but at what cost to everyone else.
I can assure you, my readers, I would never deceive you in an effort to make myself look better. It would just feel wrong and I would not want to break the trust we have built. Did I mention now that my back, hand and Achilles have improved, I have been hitting the gym more regularly? See for yourself. You know, pictures don’t lie. Not bad for 51 years old. No photo shop here; just ask J Lo, George and the Kardashians. They don’t believe in it either.
Quick Bites
Wall Street notched its first back-to-back decline since late March on Tuesday as a number of factors disrupted the bullish mood seen last week. The declines came during what was forecast to be a bumper earnings season, but sky-high valuations and the lack of catalysts to improve upon lofty expectations may prove to be a stumbling block. Fears around global COVID-19 cases as well as inflation worries contributed. However, Wednesday, stocks rebounded as cyclicals recovered after the sell off earlier in the week. Broader indices were up approximately 1%. Companies have been handing in solid quarterly results, but the bar is high for earnings to lift the stock market higher after a strong rally to record highs this year. Plus, most analysts are focused on the outlook companies are willing to give. The Dow and the S&P 500 are still both up 10% for the year after hitting records on Friday. However, Netflix fell as much as 10% as subscribers fell short. Chipotle beat estimates and is expecting same-store sales growth as high as 30% in the 2nd Q. After a record of 109 new SPAC deals in March alone, issuance has now come to almost a standstill with just 10 SPACs in April, according to data from SPAC Research. Minerd from Guggenheim is warning of a 50% correction in Bitcoin. I hope this happens, I would load up on it. I feel absent some crazy regulatory issues, Bitcoin is well over $100k over the next 18 months.
A US mutual fund that suffered nearly $500 million of losses appears to have misvalued its large derivatives portfolio, according to an analysis of the fund’s disclosures by The Wall Street Journal, academics and traders. The Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund disclosed in filings with the SEC valuations of investments that in at least three instances were incorrect or inconsistent with market conditions. One valuation was mathematically impossible, said a former Morgan Stanley managing director who reviewed the disclosures. In one instance, the disclosures show, Infinity entered two nearly identical swaps contracts referencing the same index over the same period, yet booked a gain on one that was more than three times as large as the other. These events are bad statements on regulators, auditors, management and hurt the end investors? How can you value the same assets at such meaningfully different levels. NO firm I have ever worked for (Continental Bank, Bank American, JPMoragn, UBS, Reef Road), would ever allow this to take place.
Procter & Gamble — the maker of Tide detergent, Pampers diapers and Gillette razors — said Tuesday it plans to raise prices on a slew of products by September, citing the rising cost of raw materials and shipping. The price increases will affect baby products, adult diapers and feminine-care brands and will be in a percentage in the mid- to high-single-digits, the company said. I have written about price increases in many items, oil, gas, homes, cars, education, healthcare, lumber, food, labor and many others. Now mid-to-high single digit increases in consumer products as well. No inflation to see here. Kimberly-Clark made a similar announcement recently as well. This article suggests restaurants are dangling bonuses to attract workers given the limited availability of labor. I have spoken with multiple small business owners unable to attract talent despite raising wages and offering bonuses.
A sharp drop in mortgage interest rates sent homeowners and potential homebuyers to their mortgage lenders. Total mortgage application volume surged 8.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. That is the first overall increase in weekly applications since the end of February. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.20% from 3.27%, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 25 basis points higher a year ago.
There was no driver behind the wheel of a Tesla that last night crashed into a tree and burst into flames, costing the two occupants their lives, Texas police report. Investigators say the 2019 Tesla Model S was traveling at a high rate of speed when it approached a slight curve in Spring, a Houston suburb. Instead of navigating the bend, the fully-electric car drove straight off the road and struck a tree. The 2023 Lyriq will mark the beginning of the end of Cadillacs with traditional internal combustion engines when it arrives in dealer showrooms during the first half of next year. Cadillac plans to exclusively offer all-electric vehicles by 2030, ahead of GM’s plans to do the same by 2035.I am not ready for autonomous driving vehicles and will not get behind the wheel near term in one of them. I need more time, as does the technology. However, as I said, I feel TSLA will face far stiffer competition in the next 24 months.
There is a Biden proposal for a minimum global corporate tax rate of 21% and a system for insuring the world’s biggest companies pay more in places they actually do business. I am not opposed to this to level the playing field.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is proposing a guaranteed income program for poor residents, making it the largest U.S. city to test such a policy. Garcetti will ask the City Council on Tuesday to set aside $24 million in next year’s budget to send $1,000 monthly payments to 2,000 low-income families in America’s second-
largest city, the mayor said in an interview. Funds from council districts and other sources could bring the total to $35 million. Garcetti is targeting households with at least one minor, and suffering some hardship relating to the Covid-19 pandemic. Early last year, one of my predictions was guaranteed income and believe many other cities will begin this practice. I won’t be shocked if something happens on a national level as well.
The man charged with trying to shove an Asian undercover cop onto Queens subway tracks was cut loose without bail Sunday — as the judge claimed, “My hands are tied.” Suspect Ricardo Hernandez, 32 — who faces three hate-crime charges in the attack on the cop on a Long Island City train platform around 5:30 p.m. Saturday — has at least 12 prior arrests under his belt. At Hernandez’s arraignment over the attempted push onto the tracks, Queens Supreme Court Justice Louis Nock said the state’s bail-reform measures barred him from holding Hernandez in jail. Here is a link to two teenagers out on bail in NYC for attempted murder as well. This is not a one off situation. Are you serious? Where are we that scum like this get out without bail. Hernandez has 12 prior arrests. In an effort for “equality,” the safety of of law abiding citizens is not being considered. “That’s why you people are getting beat up,” Hernandez allegedly snarled. “I got nothing to lose. I will f–k you up!” Hernandez added. Yes, this is exactly the kind of person who should be set free. We have moved too far and hurting the masses to be “fair,” to career criminals which ties in with the bullet below.
NYC’s sharp rise in shootings this year continued to increase last week — as the number of shooting incidents and victims rose some 250% compared to the same period last year. In the seven-day period between April 12 and 18, some 29 people were shot in 28 separate shootings across the city, according to stats compiled by the NYPD and obtained by The Post. That’s an increase of 250% in the shooting incident category and an increase of 262.5% in shooting victims compared to the same period last year, when eight people were shot in eight incidents, according to the stats. The numbers of shootings and victims have risen drastically in 2021, with a 59.6 percent hike in the number of people shot and a 64 percent increase in the number of incidents compared to the same period last year, according to the stats. So, NYC has no leadership, soft on crime, bail reform and those tax paying, law abiding citizens are worse for it. Seems fair.
Former Minneapolis Police officer Derek Chauvin has been convicted on all charges in the death of George Floyd. Chauvin faces up to 40 years in prison for second-degree murder, up to 25 years for third-degree murder and up to 10 years for second-degree manslaughter. The sentencing is a couple weeks away. He is in max security on suicide watch. In the last piece, I wrote about Maxine Waters’ comments about the Floyd verdict. Well, you know its bad when CNN does a piece calling her out for making a “Volatile situation much, much worse.” Defense attorney Eric Nelson called for a mistrial, citing immense media exposure, particularly a comment by Democratic U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters over the weekend in which she said while in the Twin Cities that protesters should get "more confrontational" if there is no guilty verdict. The judge in the case said, “Waters’ comments could lead to the case being overturned.” The country needed this conviction. I am scared to think about the carnage which would have taken place had Chauvin been found innocent. I am happy that some news agencies and people on the left are calling out Maxine Waters for her commentary. We need term limits. There are far too many career politicians adding no value and milking the system. I believe 3 terms is enough for the House and Senate.
New York will boost capacity limits at museums and movie theaters starting April 26 as positive test rates for Covid-19 fall to pre-holiday lows, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo. Visitor capacity at museums and zoos across the state will increase to 50%, while movie theaters will be able to fill 33% of their seats, Cuomo said. He also added that capacity at large indoor arenas like Madison Square Garden will be lifted to 25%. Just in time for me to get back to the tri-state and consume some culture.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday signed into law a bill that aims to crack down on riots and property damage in the face of fierce opposition from Democrats in the state, who argue it will have a chilling effect on protests. The new law will increase penalties for assault, battery, burglary and theft, and battery against a law enforcement officer during a riot, as well as prohibit the damaging or defacing of memorials or historic property. DeSantis, a Republican, touted the law in a news conference Monday as "the strongest, anti-rioting, pro-law enforcement piece of legislation in the country." The difference between states such as NY, OR, WA, CA compared with FL are quite telling. Last night, in NYC, protesters told white people dining outside to “get the f—out of New York” and the crowd chanted along. For a city decimated, is this the best way to attract tourism back, Mayor DeBlasio?
Middle-age adults who sleep six or fewer hours a night may be at higher risk of developing dementia in later life, a new study suggests. People age 50 or 60 who regularly slept six hours or less each night were more likely than those who slept seven hours to be diagnosed with dementia, according to the study published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Communications.
Interesting stories on Matsuyama after his transformational Masters win. Some publications suggest the win could be worth $600mm to $1bn in sponsors over his lifetime. For perspective, Naomi Osaka made $34mm last year in tennis endorsements and according to Forbes was the highest paid female athlete. All I know, is if I had the chance to win a major with a few holes to play, I am sure I would collapse, especially with the weight of an entire country on my back. Congrats again to Matsuyama for the big win and now the huge spoils which come with it.
Virus/Vaccine
Cases in the US are down again, while hospitalizations and deaths are up slightly. Alabama has seen a 20% jump in hospitalizations in less than two weeks. Delaware, PA, Maine, Puerto Rico and Florida are all seeing material case growth in the past two weeks. Michigan, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maine, Puerto Rico, and Florida hospitalizations are up sharply as well. Cases in the US fell 9.7% and the 7 day average is now 64.5k. Hospitalizations are down slightly on actual hospitalized today, but up slightly for the 7 day average. Deaths fell 4.4% and the 7 day average is now 729/day. Peak was almost 3,500/day. After falling to 1mm tests/day in late Feb, it is back up to 1.7mm/day. The data is from the NY Times.
More than 925 million doses have been administered across 155 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 15.9 million doses a day. In the U.S., 213 million doses have been given so far. In the last week, an average of 3.03 million doses per day were administered. The dosage rates have ticked down due to J&J issues. The US was at 3.4mm/day for the 7 day average and now, just above 3mm/day.
Articles
COVID-19 infections have been rising at an alarming rate for eight consecutive weeks, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned, as the virus sweeps unabated through hotspots in several corners of the globe. More than 5.2 million new cases were recorded last week -- the most in a single week since the pandemic began -- WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing in Geneva on Monday. Deaths also increased for the fifth straight week, he said, with the pandemic now officially claiming more than 3 million lives. I checked Worldometer and the 7 day average for cases is at an all time high of 775k/day, while deaths are running at 12k/day relative to the late Jan peak of 14.5k/day.
A new study published this month by researchers from Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center and Carmel Medical Center in Haifa found that the risk of developing herpes zoster (HZ) infection following a vaccination in people with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD) increases. “We cannot say the vaccine is the cause at this point,” lead researcher Dr. Victoria Furer of the hospital’s Department of Rheumatology told The Jerusalem Post. “We can say it might be a trigger in some patients.”
The CDC is investigating a “handful” of potential additional cases of severe side effects involving the J&J vaccine, the agency’s chief said Monday. Use of the single-dose COVID-19 vaccine was halted in the US last week amid reports that six women in the country developed dangerous blood clots — including one who died — after receiving the immunization.
The US State Department on Monday said it will up its “Do Not Travel” advisory to about 80 percent of countries worldwide. “The Department of State strongly recommends US citizens reconsider all travel abroad,” the agency said in a statement. At least 34 out of about 200 countries were already listed as “Level 4: Do Not Travel,” the department’s highest warning. They include Russia, Kenya, Haiti, Brazil and Argentina. Getting to 80 percent would imply adding nearly 130 countries to that guidance.
Real Estate
Miami remains hot, even for condos. 278 condos sold last week for $242mm, up from 239 condos for $147mm the prior week. The PH at the Continuum sold for $35mm or almost $3,200/ft after 628 days on the market. I don’t love the building, but the location is amazing.
Interesting Bloomberg article about developers going full steam ahead on plans despite the carnage. Vornado recently said it will demolish the Hotel Pennsylvania and add an office tower taller than 1,200 feet (366 meters) at the site by Madison Square Garden. Near Grand Central Terminal, giant towers are sprouting, including a project to redevelop the Grand Hyatt next to the transit hub. The developers are proposing a 1,600-foot skyscraper that would be among the tallest in the Western Hemisphere.
