Opening Comments
My last note was about high-end R/E in South Florida and the asking price of $285mm for a new home in Manalapan. The most opened links were five foods that increase dementia risk and the video exchange of Bessent and Bernie Sanders on oligarchy comments.
I recently bumped into two friends that I did not recognize. I was in shock at their weight loss, which was a combined 180 pounds. Both have been taking GLP-1 drugs and both were obese by any measure. They looked so much better and were excited about their physical condition. One man lost over 12 inches in his waist size in 7 months. He was a heavy drinker and claimed to barely drink while taking Wegovy. I am not promoting these drugs in any way, but I have seen firsthand how quickly they can change people’s lives. I did not know there were so many different drug choices, as I was only familiar with Wegovy, Monjaro and Ozempic. Although I am concerned about the longer-term side effects, for people with a real weight problem who are facing diabetes, heart disease, strokes and other serious consequences, it is worth a conversation with a doctor.
I am in North Carolina for some meetings and the low temperature is 13 degrees. I do not miss this weather and am wearing my NYC winter coat, cashmere hat, gloves, and sweaters to keep warm. This CNN article outlines the “once in a generation” weather. Heavy snow fell in north Florida, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, and Louisiana.
Markets
Hedge Fund Fees vs Profits
Food Costs Rising
Raising Confident Kids
Trump Inauguration Speech Summarized
Underinsured Fire Victims
JLL Global R/E Outlook 2025
Trump’s Inner Circle Buying in DC
Video of the Day-Crazy Pizza Delivery
As a kid, I delivered pizza at a dozen South Florida restaurants and am well-versed in crazy delivery stories. In the story from Indiana last week, a big snowstorm made delivering pizza a challenge and a 20-year-old driver agreed to deliver a pizza in a blizzard. As the driver finally got close to the house, a bus accident prevented him from getting to the destination. As a result, he got out and walked 15 minutes to deliver the pizza in a snowstorm, only to be given a $2.15 tip. A police officer and content creator saw the incident, gave the driver $15 from his pocket, and then created a Go-Fund-Me Page raising a total of $16k as of Saturday. The driver lives with his grandmother and feels the money can change his life. Sadly, when I was delivering in the mid-1980s, there were no Go-Fund-Me campaigns to make up for bad tippers when I was struggling to get to homes during massive hurricanes. The video of the snowstorm delivery can be seen here.
Dilated in Delray
Every year, I go get an eye exam after learning I have some potentially concerning eye issues. Thankfully, my checkups have not shown continued deterioration for narrow-angle glaucoma. However, I get my eyes dilated and the entire process is a bit comical.
Let’s begin by the fact that I go to Delray Eye Associates on Military Trail and Linton. It is located within a short distance of numerous communities filled with retirees including Addison Reserve, Delaire, Bocaire, Boca West, Gleneagles, Saint Andrews, and Broken Sound. As a result, the average age of the patients is between 92 and dead. The fact that I don’t have a walker, oxygen tank, wheelchair, or cane makes me a kid on a relative basis. These doctors are amazing but cater to the geriatric crowd on Medicaid. Reception calls your name and announce your birthday. I am not lying when I tell you that a shocking number of patients were born in the 1920s and 1930s. I feel like a child when they call out “1969” after my name. The elderly patients all stare at me as I pop out of my seat without assistance and walk without aid to see the doctor. Welcome to Delray Beach.
For some reason, my recent experience had my eyes seeing blurry for far longer than normal. After the check-up, I got in my car to drive home and the sun was shining. I wore sunglasses and could see far, but my close vision was badly blurred. I needed gas, and trying to figure out the screen on the pump was impossible. The machine asks you about a handful of questions. Cash or Credit. Do you want a car wash? Are you using Shell Points… I could not read well enough to see which buttons to press. The result was over 5 minutes of just trying to pay while I was on the phone with a friend who was laughing. I needed to ask another patron for help as I could not see the digital screen and was becoming agitated. The person asked, “If you can’t see, should you be driving?” I then had to explain the dilation and the fact that I was just blind from up close.
I should be thankful that I am not in the condition of the other patrons of my eye doctor, but I wrongfully became agitated when I could not see well enough to hit the right buttons on the screen to turn on the pump. It would have made for a funny video, as I was swearing quite a bit.
Quick Bites
Everyone knows I am a huge fan of Stan Druckenmiller of Duquesne fame, and he is one of the best investors of all time with 30%+ returns for over 30 years with no down years. He said, “animal spirits” are back because of Trump and CEOs are giddy. Further he added, “markets are complicated - despite all the positives of the economy, one of the most unattractive earnings yield to bond yield in 20 years.” He doesn't have high conviction but there will be massive change with deregulation and private markets. Stocks rallied in the holiday shortened week and bond yields declined post inauguration. Stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time high again, as technology shares such as Oracle and Nvidia rallied on artificial intelligence optimism and President Donald Trump’s new term in office. Strong NFLX earnings helped to propel the stock +11%. The 10-Year Treasury is now at 4.6% after hitting 4.8% recently. Bitcoin hit $109k on Monday, a new all-time high. I have not sold one Bitcoin…yet. Trump’s SEC launched a “crypto task force” to develop a regulatory framework for crypto assets.
Hedge funds have long been regarded as notoriously expensive. New research reveals just how costly they truly are for their clients. Of the $3.7 trillion in profits they have earned as an industry since 1969, nearly half or a staggering $1.8 trillion was gobbled up as fees, according to estimates by LCH Investments, a fund of hedge funds. With soaring assets, hedge funds have raised their charges to 50.4% of gains, up from the roughly 30% they earned until the early 2000s. This is the first time LCH has ever quantified the high expenses that have become the bedrock of hedge fund firms and have helped mint multiple billionaires over the years. Warren Buffett once described those fees as “a compensation scheme that is unbelievable,” while Bill Gross, the co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., called them a “giant rip-off.” Such criticisms have largely been brushed off by an industry that researcher HFR says has grown sevenfold this century to manage a record $4.5 trillion.
The cost of groceries in the U.S. increased 1.8% from a year earlier in December, rising at the fastest pace in more than a year, according to Labor Department data released last week. The cost of food overall was 0.3% higher in December, after increasing 0.4% in November. There isn’t one factor. Bird flu is killing chickens, cutting egg supplies and sending wholesale prices to a record. Extreme heat and dry weather in the world’s coffee-growing regions have sent the cost of brews surging. Chocolate and cereal makers have raised prices for their products, too. It is a problem for consumers, who are still acclimating to a stretch of bruising inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic. Shoppers are picking up more store-branded groceries and scouring multiple stores for the best deals. Grocery prices in December were roughly 28% higher than they were five years ago, according to the Labor Department. I remain in shock when I go to the grocery store. I just don’t understand how people can afford everything today.
Most of my readers know my family situation. My father passed away at 39 years old of a heart attack. My mother worked hard to provide for me and her encouragement gave me the confidence to surpass my potential. I left my career very early to give my kids something I never had growing up, a father. I was fortunate that I was in a position to be able to leave the workforce and be a full-time dad. This WSJ article hit close to home for me. The Secret to Raising Confident Children? Quality Time With Parents. The prescriptions for helping kids become healthier, less anxious, and more self-possessed are as varied as the kids themselves. But what if the answer is simple? According to a growing body of research, one of the best ways to raise confident children is for parents to spend more quality time with them. “The child who feels secure, safe, and seen within their intimate home environment will be the one who can go out into the world, take risks, engage more fully, and form healthy relationships,” said Dr. Shefali Tsabary, a clinical psychologist and the author of “The Conscious Parent” and “The Awakened Family.” The key is to focus on quality time, not quantity. Instead of spending whole afternoons in the company of children while also cleaning the house and fielding emails, Tsabary said that setting aside just 10-15 minutes a day for an engaged interaction, such as going for a walk or throwing a ball, can make a big difference.
CA Fires
This is a concerning video about the condition of firehouses in California. Maybe if the politicians spent less money on illegal immigrants and homeless-related matters (no success), there would be money to help fight fires. Mold was so bad in some of the firehouses that people were in grave danger. Many are falling apart.
Bill Maher Backs MAGA’s ‘Woke’ Wildfire Claims in Fiery Rant
Maher is a Democrat who makes some great points about the failures of CA leadership. He speaks about sky-high tax rates and poor services. I write about this issue extensively. I feel the same way about NYC. If you want to charge me a ton in taxes, give me amazing services, keep me safe, clean up the city, provide ample police, improve infrastructure…
He pulled up to Palisades fire with a fire engine and an offer to help. It was fake, police say
Politics
Trump gave his 30-minute inauguration speech on Monday afternoon. I felt it was balanced about the opportunities while outlining many of the challenges the country faces today. It was a bit awkward as he eviscerated Biden’s policies while President Biden was sitting in front of him. Of course, it was full of false claims, and CNN pointed out 20 of them. I felt Trump outlined the reasons he won the election and spoke about “America First.” Trump talked about “common sense.” He received a standing ovation for his declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border and promised to return “millions and millions” of illegal immigrants. He also stated he would end the practice of “catch and release,” while sending troops to the border and designating cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.” Trump discussed drilling and energy independence while planning to fill the depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He is also revoking the EV mandate. He hinted at creating the “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs, but I still have concerns about the level of tariffs. Trump outlined DOGE and plans to eliminate government censorship. The new President outlined his merit-based system, something I have written about frequently, as the right path forward. He outlined that the government policy will include only “male” and “female” and will re-instate any service members who objected to the COVID mandate and will now receive “full back-pay.” He wants to be a peacemaker and a unifier and mentioned the hostage deal that was struck the day before his presidency. I am not convinced this was the most unifying speech of all time. He wants to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which seems silly to me and resulted in Hillary laughing. I was surprised that he brought up ownership of the Panama Canal and suggested he would “take it back.” Not sure how this happens. Remember, he said “Mexico will build the wall” during his last presidency. He talked about planting stars and stripes on Mars, and Musk cheered. A full transcript of the speech can be found here. NPR, NYT, Fox News, NY Post
Trump signs the first executive orders of his new administration
The first order revoked 80 of Biden’s executive actions.
Trump pardons 1,500 people charged with Jan. 6 US Capitol riot
I understand pardons on those who were not charged with violence, but I question assisting violent offenders.
Trump announces purge of over 1,000 Biden appointees: ‘YOU’RE FIRED!’
Trump announces AI infrastructure investment backed by Oracle, OpenAI and Softbank
SoftBank, Oracle, OpenAI leaders unveil AI investment at White House
This is another win in short order. Not bad for Day one. The prior administration vilified big business and did not partner with business leaders.
Musk undercuts Trump’s Stargate AI investment announcement
I continue to believe Musk will fall in and out of Trump’s orbit due to his aggressive commentary. It was one of my 2025 predications.
Trump says he’s thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Trump says he’s considering a 10% tariff on China beginning as soon as Feb. 1
Here are the products and companies most at risk from Trump’s tariff plans
Trump starts new term with 47% approval; Jan. 6 pardons unpopular, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Trump threatens Russia with sanctions, tariffs if Putin doesn’t end Ukraine war
Trump administration directs all federal diversity, equity and inclusion staff be put on leave
This 4-minute video features Bari Weiss and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. It concerns Johnson’s interaction with Biden and the administration's protection of a frail, old man with diminished capacity. I was sent much hate mail for calling out Biden YEARS ago for his condition. This story should concern you regardless of your political beliefs.
Biden pardons Fauci, Milley and Jan. 6 committee staffers in final hours of presidency
I wrote extensively that I felt Fauci was responsible for covering up the pandemic and lied under oath. Now Congress should subpoena Fauci, and he will not have 5th Amendment immunity. Biden used the power of the pardon to guard against “revenge” by Trump. Biden also pardoned his two brothers and sister. Democrats were very aggressive about the implications of preemptive pardons as seen here when Trump did it. Schumer was against preemptive pardons by Trump. Not so much when Biden does it. However, Biden just pardoned his family. Wonder why.
Biden Leaves With an Uncertain Economic Legacy. Not So in This Indiana Town.
The president leaves the stage Monday with dismal approval ratings and an uncertain legacy. But green shoots from his big initiatives are starting to pop—many in red states.
Trump administration could sell two-thirds of federal office portfolio
“Buildings will sell for 30 cents on the dollar. There will be a dramatic reset on property values.” The article suggests 200mm square feet could be for sale. For perspective, Manhattan has almost 500mm sq ft and LA over 200mm sq ft. I do not believe they can sell 200mm feet very easily.
Vivek Ramaswamy to leave DOGE and launch a run for Ohio governor
Elon Musk performs bizarre 'Hitler salute' at Trump inauguration rally
It made me feel uncomfortable, but the ADL suggested it was “not a Nazi salute.”
This kind of value on a crap coin concerns me about the industry.
Spain calls on world to fight against Trump’s ‘Silicon Valley techno-caste’
Middle East
Israel in crisis hours after ceasefire as far-right minister quits with chilling warning
He is upset over the ceasefire deal warning it will “destroy all of Israel’s achievements." I don’t understand why Israel gives so many Hamas hostages up for Israel civilians. In Phase One, Israel will release 1,700 Palestinian prisoners for 33 hostages. If the ceasefire holds, Israel will release 30-50 hostages for each Israeli hostage. How is this fair? Sounds like a crappy deal to me, but I am happy innocent civilians will be free.
Freed Israeli hostages given ‘gift bags’ by Hamas in horrific commemoration of their captivity
One Day After Trump Takes Office, Harvard Settles Two Antisemitism Lawsuits
I don’t believe this is a coincidence. Trump vowed to punish universities over antisemitism.
At Columbia, the pro-Palestinian Groups continue to run the place
In the short video link, masked students are passing out pamphlets that say “Crush Zionism.” Welcome to Columbia.
Other Headlines
Jamie Dimon says the U.S. stock market is ‘kind of inflated’
I cannot fathom the number of jobs that AI and robots will take over in the next 5-10 years.
Bank of America CEO says financial industry will jump into crypto payments if regulators allow it
Musk, Zuckerberg and Huang among 5 people now expected to become trillionaires within 10 years
Why do we allow anyone to have 30 arrests? Idiot politicians and judges continue to put criminals ahead of law-abiding citizens.
16-year-old girl randomly punched in face by deranged woman on NYC subway platform
NYC straphangers hug the walls inside subway stations in wake of spiraling transit crime
The picture in the article is exactly what I do. When I take the NYC Subway, my back is against the wall or column on the platform. Too many nut jobs and not enough cops to protect you.
Maybe parents should be involved and discipline kids for being truant. My mother would have crushed me for chronic absenteeism.
TikTok lover sparks blaze at congressman’s office in response to ban, police say
Wharton professor Adam Grant: This is ‘a neglected predictor of success and happiness’
32 best fitness gifts celebrities swear by, from apps to activewear
Of course, it was in Florida.
Real Estate
I have written extensively about the cost of insurance and the challenges of getting full coverage for earthquake, fire, flood, and wind protection. The massive fires in California will leave many homeowners unprotected or under-covered. Real estate investor Robert Rivani spent $27 million purchasing and renovating a luxury beachfront property on Malibu's renowned "Billionaire's Beach." However, after the mansion was destroyed by fire, he expects only a fraction of that amount from an insurance payout. Rivani revealed that no insurer would fully cover the Malibu mansion’s value, forcing him to rely on California’s FAIR Plan, the insurer of last resort. However, the plan caps residential coverage at just $3 million. Adding to the financial strain, Rivani said he faces combined mortgage and property tax payments exceeding $100,000 per month, even though the home no longer exists. (California offers temporary relief on mortgage and property tax payments for fire victims.)
A reader sent me JLL’s Global Real Estate Outlook for 2025. The year ahead looks set to be a pivotal one for commercial real estate. While performance is asynchronous across geographies and markets – and across asset types within markets – on balance we believe the real estate cycle has turned a corner.
Our recent Global Real Estate Sentiment survey is indicative of this shift. As of November 2024, we saw the strongest result in nearly three years. A majority of respondents are indicating they think conditions will improve further over the next six months. That’s not to say that 2025 will be an easy year. We are likely to see an unsettling level of uncertainty: economic, regulatory, fiscal and trade policies will continue to change and take shape, and we will be watching these closely. Interest rates in most markets will proceed on their downward trajectory, but expectations for the speed and magnitude of change have proven highly dynamic and we expect to see signals of continued volatility. Events can supersede plans at any point and alter rate-setters' expected decisions. And this is to say nothing of the ongoing and potential geopolitical conflicts around the world. Lots of info in the link above.
A Trump Oligarchy Is Moving to Washington, and Buying Up Prime Addresses
Billionaires and multimillionaires are flocking to a city where power has been more important than money, but is now deeply intertwined with it. On that front, this story suggests Musk was the highest bidder to buy the Line Hotel in DC and plans on turning it into a private social club.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #755 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
