Opening Comments
Picture of the Day
Donate with Caution
Quick Bites
Markets, Inflation, High Yield Market, Monopolies
Taxing the 1%, Household Net Worth
Labor Shortage, Millennial Bitcoin, RV Demand
NYC Mayor Race, Chinese Official on Leak, Bibi Out, Bank Heist
16-Year Old Gang Member Killer, Antisemitism Discussion
Virus/Vaccine
Data Improvement for the Most Part
Hydroxychloroquine
Heart Inflammation
Teen Suicides
Real Estate
Jon Grey Interview-Read this one. Informative
$48mm Coconut Grove Sale
Waterfront Prices in Palm Beach
$87.7mm Bel-Air Mansion
Top 10 Cities to Retire on a Budget
Opening Comments
Unfortunately, there was a bit of a mishap. Substack does not offer an “undo” button. I hit something on my laptop which erased my entire piece which was 85% done and had to start from scratch. I am sure in my recreation, I forgot something. I later came to find out there is a “Draft History,” which has old drafts saved. Would have been good to know before I redid everything. The lack of phone support strikes again.
I am in Southampton for a couple days. Smooth 5 hours to drive 189 miles. Serenity now. I have now driven 2,300 miles in 21 days with a lot of driving to come. At least I am out of the Springhill Suites for a few days.
I have been getting very positive feedback about the Rosen Report and am excited people enjoy my notes. I want to ask the readers for a favor in getting the word out and sharing my notes which resonate. I am clearly having deliver-ability issues as just this week, I heard from numerous readers who are no longer getting my reports due to firewall issues. If you like a report, you can click the heart button and the more likes it gets, it goes up the Substack chain. Thanks for reading and continue to send me story ideas. Today’s topic really has me irked, but you will know that from reading it.
Early send today, caddying for Jack in a practice round.
Picture of the Day-Man Eaten By a Whale
His name’s not Jonah — but this Cape Cod man sure has something in common with the biblical figure now. Commercial lobster diver Michael Packard was going about his business off the coast off Provincetown, Mass. when he was swallowed whole by a humpback whale — trapped in its gullet for nearly a minute before being coughed back up, according to a report. Packard, 56, was about 35 feet below the surface near Herring Cove Beach at 8 a.m. Friday when the massive mammal tried to turn him into breakfast, the Cape Cod Times reported. “All of a sudden, I felt this huge shove and the next thing I knew it was completely black,” Packard told the outlet. “I could sense I was moving, and I could feel the whale squeezing with the muscles in his mouth.” Experts suggested it was an accident by a juvenile whale. Sorry, that is crazy and I am struggling to believe this story.
Donate with Caution
I am a firm believer in the 1st Amendment which provides Freedom of Speech. Although I do not like some of the hate filled talk, absent screaming the equivalent of “Fire” in a crowded theater, people should be allowed to speak their minds in a democracy like the USA. Lately, we have seen a lot of hate filled speeches against Jews, Asians, Black or White people…. In my opinion, those people have the right to their views, but we have the right to vote them out of office and not donate to universities who give these people platforms. The distribution of the Rosen Report is wide, but includes a good number of affluent people and if I had to guess, over a dozen billionaires and other wealthy individuals who are very generous in the gifting department.
UCLA is viewed as a top 20 school by US News and World Reports and I concur it is a very good school. Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors was set to deliver a virtual commencement address for UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs on Friday despite scrutiny of her past critical remarks concerning Israel, the school's dean confirmed. Cullors called for an end to the Israeli state while participating in a 2015 panel at Harvard Law School. Her remarks resurfaced in recent days following intense clashes between the Israeli military and Hamas militants in Gaza. "Palestine is our generation’s South Africa," Cullors said at the event. "If we don’t step up boldly and courageously to end the imperialist project that’s called Israel, we’re doomed."
Do I believe Cullors has the right to have these views? Yes, she does. However, let’s take a look at the UCLA endowment and recent large donations. Let’s start with the department she was giving the commencement address for at UCLA. It was the Luskin School of Public Affairs. The Jew hating keynote speaker was brought on for a commencement address for a public affairs school named after a Jew given his substantial donation. That is fairly ironic. UCLA has billions in endowments. How many of those were donated by Jews? I have no idea, but I know the following people have donated: David Geffen ($450mm), Henry & Susan Samueli ($100mm), Eli Broad ($20mm), Meyer and Renee Luskin ($100mm), Michael Milken ($10mm), Ralph & Shirley Shapiro, Stewart & Linda Resnick, Agi Hirshberg, Anthony and and Jeneane Pritzker, Louisa Kerckhoff and many others. These people may have given more in other donations, but you get my point. Henry Samueli’s (founder of Broadcom) parents survived the Nazi occupation of Europe. It appears to me, that a majority of the school’s largest donations were given by Jews. Remember, Jews are only 2% of the US population.
Judea Pearl, a professor of computer science at UCLA and founder of the Daniel Pearl Foundation wrote the following: "For the thousands of Jewish students and faculty at UCLA, Cullors represents a bigoted sect of the BLM movement that criminalizes the core of our collective existence and calls for its destruction," "Inviting her as a keynote speaker without explicitly retracting or addressing that bigoted part of her ideology amounts to mainstreaming that bigotry and, by implication, expelling Jewish students and faculty from equal membership in the Bruins tent of ‘equity, diversity and inclusion."
Wealthy Jews are philanthropic in many cases and have helped countless schools, hospitals, parks, cultural endeavors…. Just look at NYC Hospitals (Weill Cornell and NYU Tisch). If UCLA wants to showcase Jew haters, should Jews continue to donate? Below are some of the named buildings at UCLA. Other named buildings include the Iris Cantor, Eugene & Maxine Rosenfeld Hall for Medical Research, The Wasserman Football Center (all Jews). In the Quad picture below, Luskin (2 buildings, Broad, Kerckhoff are Jews. In this article about a recent multi-billion fund raise at UCLA, a majority of the named donors appear to be Jews.
I get that today in the new “Woke World,” schools feel the need to give everyone the right to voice their opinions. Go ahead, have skinheads speak. However, as wealthy donors, we have the right to support causes which do not give haters such a platform.
I recently wrote about the psychiatrist, Dr. Aruna Khilanani, who spoke at Yale. Her lecture, “The Psychopathic Problem of the White Mind,” not only included daydreams of gunning down white people but also dismissed the possibility that any of her targets could empathize with people of color or understand racism. She said, “addressing racism assumes that white people can see and process what we are talking about.”
Does Yale have the right to give Dr Khilanani the platform? Sure they do. The Yale endowment is $32bn. What percent of the money raised was from the White people? Remember, Khilanani would fantasize about “unloading a revolver into the head of any white person that got in her way.” Charles B Johnson gave Yale $250mm, the largest donation ever to the school. He is a White male. If speakers at the school want to shoot him in the head, should he give more money?
To me, there are consequences for decisions. UCLA allowing a Jew hater to give a commencement speech for a department named for a Jew, the Luskin School of Public Affairs, is insulting. I am now spending more time donating my money and now feel the need to be doing more in-depth research on who will receive it. If you want to give a platform to hate anyone in the new “Woke World,” so be it. You won’t get my money and hopefully, you wont get the money of many others who take the time to carefully consider which good cause receives their hard earned donations. Here is some advice to the institutions who live off of donations; be careful of biting the hand that feed you.
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks rose slightly on Friday with the S&P 500 adding to its new record, as Wall Street wrapped up the week on a high note. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% to a fresh closing high of 4,247, a second record close in a row. The Nasdaq advanced 0.4% to 14,069 with Apple, Microsoft and Netflix all registering gains. The Dow gained 13.36 points to 34,479. In terms of weekly results, the S&P 500 posted a 0.4% gain and marked its third consecutive positive week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was the outperformer with a rally of nearly 1.9% and posting its fourth winning week in a row. The 30-stock Dow fell 0.8% on the week. The market built on Thursday’s gain as investors shrugged off a report showing inflation rising at its fastest pace since 2008.
Headline consumer prices rose 5% year over year in May, the fastest pace since August 2008 and higher than Wall Street expectations. The 3.8% rise in the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was the sharpest increase in nearly three decades. Surging used car prices helped drive much of the inflation gains.Initial jobless claims totaled 376,000, a touch higher than the estimate. Obviously, comparing it to 2020 is not apples to apples given the shutdowns. Yes, I believe some of this is transitory, but not all. Story that lumber prices fell 18%, the largest ever weekly decline as sawmills are catching up to demand. I remain surprised the bond market has been so uneventful. The 10 year traded as low as 1.43%, but closed at 1.45%.
A reader, BR, sent me this chart of historic high yield index yields from Citi. Yes, they are at or near all time lows. Part of this can be explained with a 10 year under 1.5%. For perspective, in June 2007, the 10 year yield was 5%+. Depending on the index, you get slightly different yields. For example, JPM HY index is at 4.4%, but the theme is the same. High Yield bonds, should be renamed, “Low Yield.” Zero/low rates for extended periods of time with accomodative Fed policy and QE lead to extremely low yields. The lack of yields pushes investors out the risk spectrum to find return. Well, it has worked.
Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google could be forced to overhaul their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms introduced by a bipartisan group of House lawmakers on Friday. The package of five bills, draft versions of which were reported by CNBC and other outlets, would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest. The legislation represents the most comprehensive effort to reform century-old antitrust laws in decades. The bills will need to be voted on favorably by the Judiciary Committee before making their way to the full House. They would also need to be approved by the Senate before they could be signed into law by the president. The measures come in the wake of a lengthy investigation by the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust into the four companies that was completed last year. The panel found at the time that Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google hold monopoly power and that antitrust laws should be revised to better deal with the unique challenges of competition in digital markets. Let me see here. Google has a 92% global search market share. What market share constitutes a monopoly? Facebook has 72% market share for social media. I do not like regulation for the most part and believe DC politicians are largely idiots. However, big tech has become too powerful and STRONGLY suggest everyone watch the Social Dilemma. The link is a 2.5 minute preview to the movie. Please take the time to click the link. The people speaking are former executives from Google, Apple, Microsoft….These companies determine what you read and who is allowed to post opinion. Lately, Hydroxychloroquine stories are harder to find on some social media outlets because a new study suggests it is effective. The power of these companies is scary and something needs to addressed in my opinion.
The top 1% of households would see a tax increase of more than $213,000, on average, in 2022 if Congress passes President Joe Biden’s proposed tax plan, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. The plan raises the top capital-gains tax rate and the top marginal income tax rate, for example. Low and middle earners would get tax cuts of about $600 and $300, respectively. Households with kids would get a bigger average tax break.
Household net worth rose to $136.9 trillion in the first quarter, a 3.8% gain from the end of 2020. The gain came amid a 7% increase in the S&P 500 that boosted equity wealth by $3.2 trillion. Household debt totaled $16.9 trillion, growing at the fastest pace going back to 2006. Homeowners are getting richer and richer as prices keep soaring – and the numbers are staggering. Those with mortgages — about 62% of all properties — saw their equity jump by 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to CoreLogic. This represents a collective cash gain of close to $2 trillion. Per borrower, the average gain was $33,400.
Now that most pandemic restrictions have been lifted, Americans are back to dining out and booking vacations — and business owners are looking to fill nearly 1.6 million openings, a 68% increase in openings compared to February 2020. Contrast that narrative with the manufacturing industry. Some 1.4 million people were laid off or furloughed from February to April 2020. But as of last month business owners are hiring for 851,000 positions — a record high for the industry and a 112% increase in openings since last February. The U.S. does not have enough high-skilled workers to meet demand for computer-related jobs, and employers are seeking immigrant talent to help fill that gap, according to a new report. For every unemployed computer or math worker in the country in 2020, there were more than seven job postings for computer-related occupations, bipartisan immigration research group New American Economy found in the study. I have written about the labor issue extensively. Yes, I believe some is transitory, but believe the wage gains will not go away quickly. Not one company I know looking for labor can find it. Restaurants, Country Clubs, Drivers, Manufacturing, Hotels…all seem to be looking for talent.
Nearly half of millennial millionaires have at least 25% of their wealth in cryptocurrencies, according to the CNBC Millionaire Survey. The results highlight a new generational divide in wealth creation from crypto, with younger investors able to earn vast fortunes from the surge in the prices of bitcoin, ether and other digital currencies. The importance of crypto to young millionaires could shift the wealth management industry, as private banks, brokers and wealth management firms scramble to cater to a new, crypto-heavy clientele. To me, this seems very high as a percent of net worth. I am at 1%, which is arguably too low.
Road travel skyrocketed in popularity during COVID-19, and many RV makers saw a boost in sales. Now the RV maker Thor Industries has a $14.32 billion order backlog, which is an almost 550% increase compared to the same time in 2020. Taking a closer look, Thor's backlog for towables and motorized RVs by the end of April in North America increased 766% and 548%, respectively, compared to the same time in 2020. The company is "pretty much sold out for the next year," CEO Bob Martin said on CNBC's "Mad Money."
The top five Democratic candidates for mayor tackled some of the biggest problems plaguing New Yorkers during a debate on Thursday night — zeroing in on surging crime and other quality of life issues. Asked how they would curb the recent uptick in violence, such as shootings and hate crimes, both Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and city Comptroller Scott Stringer said they would focus on reaching the Big Apple’s youth. “We must have an intervention and prevention,” Adams said on the WCBS-TV stage. Four of them — Adams, Garcia, Stringer and Yang — all pledged to let cops keep their guns. But Wiley wouldn’t say — even after being pressed at least twice on the issue by moderator Marcia Kramer. “I am not prepared to make that decision in a debate,” Wiley, a former de Blasio administration official and Civilian Complaint Review Board chair, finally conceded. Wiley, the following day, suggested cops would be allowed to keep guns. I am yet to speak with one person (left or right) who thinks DeBlasio has done a good job. One of these candidates is to replace him. I am not wowed by any of them, but thankfully, I don’t need to pay super close attention any more living in Florida. Too depressing. In the latest poll, 22% and Yang, 16%. Wiley was down to 9% after being has high as 17% at one point. This Atlantic article suggests the Progressives may be losing to moderates in the NYC mayor race despite AOC’s best attempts.
A top Chinese diplomat, Yang Jiechi, told Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday that the theory that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory in the city of Wuhan was an “absurd story,” the country’s state media reported. Yang Jiechi, the head of Beijing’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, also told Blinken that the US should approach issues surrounding the island nation of Taiwan “carefully and appropriately,” according to broadcaster CCTV. Blinken, meanwhile, “stressed the importance of cooperation and transparency regarding the origin of the virus, including the need for WHO Phase 2 expert-led studies in China,” a State Department press release said. My bad, nothing to see here. The corrupt Chinese government has called the Wuhan Lab leak story “absurd,” and these people don’t lie. I am not sure who I trust less, North Koreans, Iranians, Syrians, Russians, Iraqis or Chinese government officials. Remember, the Chinese government lied about human to human transmission, bought up PPE from multiple countries, lied about deaths and virus rates in China while crematoriums were working 24/7, allowed people to leave China to infect other parts of the world, “silenced” doctors trying to warn the world, steal our IP, pollute worse than any other country, have child labor, hack our infrastructure…..but I believe them this time, NOT.
Israel’s Parliament, the Knesset, voted in its new government — and a new prime minister for the first time in 12 years — on Sunday. The vote, ringing in the leadership of a very diverse and cobbled-together coalition of right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Islamist parties, ousted Israel’s longest-serving leader Benjamin Netanyahu. It also spared Israel from the prospect of a fifth election in less than two years.
An alleged thief was collared shortly after sticking up a Manhattan bank on Thursday — just one day after he was cut loose in an earlier bank heist, The Post has learned. Chi Ngo is accused of pulling off the robberies at two separate Chase Banks in as many days, according to sources and court documents. The sticky-fingered 52-year-old was first nabbed Tuesday after allegedly swiping $2,300 in cash from a Chase on Canal Street just after 10:30 a.m., according to a criminal complaint. “I got a gun with me,” he wrote in a note handed to a bank teller, the court document shows. “This is a bank robbery. Put the cash in the bag. I will use it.” Two bank robberies in two days. How many more times does he need to prove that he should be locked up for a while? What was his bail?
A reputed teenage gang member with three gun busts in four months had his bail reduced by a Bronx judge — allowing him to get out of jail and allegedly fire a random shot that killed an innocent father of two. Alberto Ramirez, 16, was arrested Monday in the slaying of Eric Velasquez, 34, who was struck by a stray bullet that the teen allegedly shot blindly into a crowd while on a rival gang’s turf, law enforcement sources said. He has pleaded not guilty. Ramirez was locked up on $75,000 bail when acting Supreme Court Justice Denis Boyle lowered the amount to $10,000 cash or $25,000 bond over prosecution objections on March 2, the Bronx District Attorney’s Office said Wednesday. His family bailed him out a few weeks later, a spokeswoman for DA Darcel Clark said — putting him back on the streets. Three gun busts in four months at 16 years old and kills an innocent father. At what point will the tax paying, law abiding citizens be protected? I sure hope the new mayor of NYC is a bit tougher on crime and supports the NYPD to put these violent criminals away. Bail reform works on non-violent crime, but for repeat offenders of violent crimes, I do not agree.
Reader, RM, sent me this interesting link to a discussion entitled, “The Mainstreaming of Antisemitism: How Should We Respond?” At AJC Virtual Global Forum 2021, Bret Stephens, Op-Ed Columnist, The New York Times, Bari Weiss, Journalist and Author of How to Fight Antisemitism, and Simone Rodan-Benzaquen, Director of AJC Europe spoke about rising Jew-hatred.
Virus/Vaccine
Data continues to improve in the US for most areas. However, cases have flattened in recent days as cases are at 14.4k/day after dipping as low as 12.9k the other day. Hospitalizations are at 20k and deaths are below 400 to 385 (7-day average) for the 1st time since the beginning of the pandemic. Unfortunately, on the vaccine, the US continues to hover around 1mm doses/day, down from a peak of 3.4mm.
A new study shows that the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine touted by former President Donald Trump increased the survival rate of severely ill coronavirus patients. The observational study, published by medRxiv, found that antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, along with zinc, could increase the coronavirus survival rate by as much as nearly 200% if distributed at higher doses to ventilated patients with a severe version of the illness. “We found that when the cumulative doses of two drugs, HCQ and AZM, were above a certain level, patients had a survival rate 2.9 times the other patients,” the study’s conclusion states. The study adds, “By using causal analysis and considering of weight-adjusted cumulative dose, we prove the combined therapy, >3 g HCQ and > 1g AZM greatly increases survival in Covid patients on IMV and that HCQ cumulative dose > 80 mg/kg works substantially better.
The number of cases of a heart inflammation condition in 16- to 24-year-olds was higher than expected after they received their second dose of Pfizer’s or Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines, the CDC said. There have been 275 reported cases of myocarditis or pericarditis, which are inflammation conditions involving the heart, in people ages 16 to 24 as of May 31, according to a CDC presentation.
Suicide attempts increased among adolescents aged 12 to 17, especially young girls, during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CDC data. Among the young girls, average weekly visits to the emergency department for suspected suicide attempts from February 2021 to March 2021 was 50.6% higher than the same period a year prior. The study likely underrepresents the real number of suspected suicide attempts because Americans were hesitant to go to hospitals during the pandemic, in fear of contracting Covid-19. There are so many unintended consequences of the lockdowns. Missed surgeries, chemo treatments, screenings, loss of education due to remote learning, loved ones dying alone, weddings and funerals cancelled…. Here is yet another one with a significant increase in teen suicides. When will the Chinese government pay for their actions, lies and deceit?
Real Estate
A loyal reader, PF, sent me this interesting Bloomberg interview with Jon Grey, President of Blackstone. It is quite interesting and for those interested in R/E, you should take a look. Far too much to cover for me. Jon Grey is a billionaire due to his R/E calls running the division at Blackstone for years.
A trust linked to private equity firm founder Nathan Leight sold a waterfront mansion in Miami’s Coconut Grove for $48 million. Leight, senior managing member and founder of Miami-based Terrapin Partners, was previously chief investment officer of Gabriel Capital. The 2.2-acre estate previously sold in 2011 for $13.4 million, according to Realtor.com. The property has two living units with 12 bedrooms, 12 bathrooms and three half-baths. Nearby in Coconut Grove, LeBron James’ former home sold in May for $12.8 million. In April, Miami businessman Jorge Mas sold his waterfront mansion to nutrition moguls Roger and Sloan Barnett for nearly $46 million. And earlier this year, an author sold her mansion for $8.7 million.
Waterfront real estate prices are rising across the U.S. in a frenzied pandemic-tinged market. During the first quarter of this year homes at high risk of flooding sold for a record 13.6% premium over less risky homes, according to brokerage Redfin. In Palm Beach the boom is being sustained by participants with short horizons and the security that wealth provides. Speculators are rushing to knock down the old and create spaces lavish enough to justify surging prices, and buyers are lining up. It probably doesn’t hurt that Florida law requires no disclosure by property sellers of past flood damage.
Real estate developer, Todd Michael Glaser, paid Epstein’s estate $18.5 million for the house in March, and now he’s imagining the future. Glaser has drawn up plans for a new house in the Art Moderne style, with curved corners, upper-story terraces with bronze railings and enough bedrooms for up to 12 people. Inside will be finishes of bleached driftwood and sand-blasted stone, while the outdoor spaces will include a kitchen, hot and cold spas, and hammocks stretched between coconut trees. He believes he will triple his investment. A sale price of, say, $70 million would be a boon for Palm Beach. “Because that’s $1.4 million in taxes,” Glaser said of his project. “The city is listening to the billionaires.”
777 Sarbonne Road in the Bel-Air section of Los Angeles recently hit the market with an asking price of $87,777,777. Many of the home’s architectural details were designed in measurements that are multiples of seven, and it took seven years to renovate the property. The Bel-Air mansion’s makeover was nearly a total teardown, its owner said. Only one wall from the old house is still standing. The home’s dramatic view of Los Angeles is protected by an easement. Check out the link. The house is quite tricked out.
This shows the top 10 cities with the lowest costs for retirees. I write a good deal about expensive homes, so I want to include more affordable places too.