Election Issue-World In Shock-I Called It
11-6-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about my most misunderstood lyrics of famous songs. It was a bit embarrassing and included my infamous “Mullet photo” from 1986. I received a lot of funny responses. Alex told me he thought the Stevie Nicks song, Edge of Seventeen said, “Just like the one winged dove,” but the song says, “Just like the white winged dove.” I thought it said, “Just like the ones we love,” and only realized it on Sunday when I received the email. Hunter, another reader, alerted me to the fact that mondegreen is the word that means a misunderstood or misinterpreted word of phrase from a lyric of a song. I had no idea there was a word for it. I am the KING MONDEGREEN. The most opened links were the Jerry Seinfeld story of him ripping the NYC private school, Fieldston, for being overly woke about the election. I commented how awful that place was nearly 15 years ago. We are raising weak children who are not prepared for the real world. The other most opened link was about the UFO story of a picture from the Pentagon Chief.
I went to an amazing party at a stunning house in Miami Beach last night. I got home around midnight and woke up at 4:30 am to write my election piece. I ate at Stubborn Seed last night and there will be a full review coming. The Michelin Star restaurant did not disappoint.
Markets
Private Credit Update
Homeowners Insurance
Social Crisis-Making Friends
Eataly Coming to South Florida
Office to Condo Conversion NYC
10 Expensive Homes for Sale in the USA
CMBS Delinquency Rates Rising
Tom Ford Spends $104mm on London Mansion
Proposition 33 (Rent Control Related) Rejected in CA
Picture of the Day-Boca Sunrise Over the Ocean
My readers know I fish quite a bit. I have always loved the water and have spent thousands of hours surfing and fishing on oceans all over the world. I have seen too many remarkable sunrises and sunsets to count, depending on which coast I am on at the time. All these pictures were taken with my new iPhone 16 Pro Max. Yes, I caught some fish (mahi, tuna, kingfish), but it was not an epic day of fishing. The most memorable part of the day was the sunrise and a massive leatherback turtle that swam by the boat. Any opportunity to throw in surf pics to make me look cool will be used, as was the case here.
Election Issue-World In Shock
One week ago, I wrote that I felt Trump would win and gave it a 70/30 chance of happening. I lowered the odds on Sunday, but suggested a Trump victory and received a lot of negative commentary for my call. The power of Musk, Rogan, Ackman and other leaders made a difference as did Twitter. In the end, too many mistakes by the Democrats allowed the incredibly flawed convict to shock the world. Harris has 15mm less votes than Biden did in 2020. Pretty strong message. Harris is expected to concede today.
Democrat Mistakes
Biden stayed in the race too long and the Democrats and popular media lied to protect him and justify his clear cognitive decline. I received a lot of hate mail for calling out Biden and suggesting he step down many months ago.
No Democratic primary-Harris never received a vote. I felt Dean Phillips was the answer for the Democrats. If he had more time to get the world to know him, he seemed a better answer than Harris. Phillips on the All-In Podcast was amazing. Even Right-Wing podcaster and investor David Sacks was impressed.
Harris ran on a platform of Trump hate, not sound policy.
Running on Trump as a Nazi while his rallies were filled with yarmulke wearing Jews did not pass the smell test.
Harris flip-flopped on too many issues and could not separate herself from the Biden/Harris administration’s policies as well as should could have.
The AWFUL border policies and mass immigration coupled with the issues of inflation and “are you better off” were more important to voters than Democrats believed. To be clear, I wrote about these issues in EVERY piece for years. Nearly 75% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. When asked what she would do differently, Harris responded, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.” WRONG ANSWER.
Lawfare on Trump and indicting him on many issues that were misdemeanors (NOT all), sent the wrong message and the voters saw through it. The NY case run by the awful man, Bragg, was weak and not what you go after a former President over.
The Democrats were generally not supportive of our greatest ally, Israel. The Squad hates Jews and Israel and Democrat House voting on pro-Israel issues was clear. More of my Jewish readers who were staunch Dems refused to vote for Harris.
The Democrats moved too far Left and this election disaster should bring them closer to Center. The Progressives had too loud of a voice in the Democratic Party. An open border, illegal immigrants voting, being soft-on-crime, the Green New Deal, 44% capital gains tax rates, taxes on unrealized capital gains, massive regulations that kill business, ending the filibuster, free money handouts, massive deficits, weak foreign policy, trans surgeries for five year olds and people in prison and large government are not the way forward. The election outcome was the strong message I hope the Democrats hear loud and clear to bring the party back to where it once stood. Musk Tweeted this cartoon done by Colin Wright in 2021. I agree. Too many people who once were registered Democrats feel this way. Big names such as Ackman, Rogan, Musk and many of my readers identify below. Another example is the awful soft-on-crime DA in LA County, George Gascon, who lost 61.5% to 38.5%. Yet another message Progressive policy does not resonate. Check out Illinois results. In 2020, Biden won by 17 and Harris is +4 with 91% counted.
Selecting a lightweight, Walz, as the VP was a mistake. He is a self-proclaimed “knucklehead” that was run over by Vance in the debate. Shapiro was the better call and would have given the Democrats Pennsylvania. I believe the Progressive hate of Jews and desire for the Muslim Michigan vote made for a bad decision.
The incredible Liberal polling suggested unrealistic Harris #s. Just the other day, a major pollster (Selzer) suggested Harris would win Iowa, a state Trump won twice before. The end result was Trump +14 in Iowa.
Moving Forward
Trump, you shocked the world with a victory. What do you do with the power of the Presidency, control of the Senate and potential control of the House? Will you do a better job of trying to unite a nation that has not been this fractured since the Civil War or will you continue to be divisive?
Ideas for Trump
Pardon the Bidens. Send a message. Talk about it immediately. He made the statement he would not go after Hillary after winning in 2016. I felt that was the right decision despite believing she violated laws.
Reach out to senior Democratic leaders - Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries and others - with an olive branch. If they don’t take it, that’s on them.
Your ideas of Musk as a cost-cutter and Kennedy as a health czar are brilliant. Expand your cabinet to include other out-of-the box, non-Republican thought leaders, too. Even though he probably won’t take the offer, ask Dimon to be Treasury Secretary. Send a message that you are trying to bring in the best, regardless of political views. Be strong enough to accept a “no-thank you” answer.
Do not go the massive tariff angle. It is a bad idea and will drive prices higher. Yes, to bringing back manufacturing to the USA but that will take a long time to do in any size. Do build a wall and have a strong border. Do insure the US in energy independent and rebuild the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Also, get nationwide election rules passed and have Musk come up with a better way to guarantee election integrity. Of note, Florida had votes counted within 45 minutes of polls closing. Why can’t this happen everywhere? Why will California take so long?
Work on lowering deficits between cutting spending and NOT massively cutting taxes. Our deficits are unsustainable. The last surplus was 23 years ago under Clinton. Taking income tax to zero is a bad idea.
Federal interest expense has surpassed defense spending. This has historically been a very bad sign, according to Niall Ferguson.
All races are not called for House and Senate. Markets have historically preferred a split Congress. If the Republicans win the House, I prefer it to be a small victory, as I fear Trump’s decisions with too much power. Make no mistake, the Democrats gave Trump this victory with bad policies. This was less of a vote for Trump than it was a vote against Harris and Left policies in my opinion.
My Out of the Box Calls
Trump will not stay four years. Trump, do your thing for 24-30 months and give the reins to Vance. Step down and use your age as an excuse. You are clearly not in the same condition as you were in 2016. Don’t make the Biden mistake. I also felt that Lara Trump did a good job as the RNC co-chair. My other call is Justice Thomas will retire during Trump’s term to allow him to elect a new Supreme Court Justice. I don’t think they make the RBG mistake.
Despite the incredible hate of Trump, the world will go on. This was the Trump acceptance speech. Many schools, especially in NYC and other Liberal cities will be in chaos today. They will have “safe rooms” and shrinks for the troubled students who are irate. We are creating the softest generation in American history. On that front, Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election. I would not live in any of the places listed below. I would consider Italy, Portugal or Spain to have a second home. I have a love affair with New Zealand even though I have never been there. Check out the exit tax rules if you are seriously considering renouncing US citizenship. You no longer have to pay US taxes once you leave and clear up prior tax bills. However, you do have a substantial “exit tax,” outlined below. I mistakenly thought you needed to pay for a number of years. The 2nd article on the citizenship topic is from Fortune and can be found here.
Quick Bites
Markets ripped on Wednesday (+2-4%) with the Trump victory as he is viewed as pro-growth, pro-business, pro-markets. Remember when Trump won in 2016 and overnight markets crashed before rebounding? Not this time. Tesla stock was +13% on Wednesday, while Trump Media was +38% despite losing $19mm last quarter and revenues fell 5.6%. However, Treasuries sold off sharply with the 10 year +18bps to 4.47%, now +88bps since the September 18th rate cuts. Fears that the Republicans will sweep helped to push Treasury yields higher. Also, crypto rallied sharply given Trump’s support of the digital currencies. Bitcoin hit a new record of $75k on Wednesday and Ether was +9% to $2.7k. Gold is -3% to $2.7k, while oil fell to $71 with the stronger US dollar.
I have often written about the growth in private credit. The market has exploded as banks have pulled back in lending and alternatives have boomed. This Bloomberg article outlines the growth in the space and gives examples in Brookfield and Blackstone The world’s largest alternative asset managers have gone deeper into private credit and other forms of lending, transforming themselves into financial supermarkets. Credit became Blackstone Inc.’s largest business in the third quarter, comprising more than a third of its assets. Brookfield expects credit to be its fastest-growing business, rising to about $600 billion of fee-bearing capital in five years from almost $250 billion today.
When you think of homeowner’s insurance issues, many people believe Florida (hurricanes) and California (fires and floods) are the only places to see drastic increased pricing in recent years. But homeowners have seen 300% or more in insurance prices increases recent years. An article published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis used data from S&P Global to determine that premiums have increased by 34% nationwide over a seven-year period. However, Upper Midwest states are dealing with drastic levels of inflation due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events in the area. "In Minnesota, for example, requests for premium increases filed by insurers are reviewed by actuaries at the Department of Commerce to ensure they're not too high and not too low," the Housingwire article stated. "Average homeowners insurance premiums have increased by 39% over the past seven years, and 15% in 2023 alone." My sponsor, Kevin Lang of Lang Insurance-866-964-4434, has helped dozens of my readers improve coverage, save money and protect their prized possessions. In October alone, 10 readers signed up with Lang. Reach out to Kevin and his team to help you navigate your property and casualty insurance needs. I did and saved a ton. He writes policies for Home, Auto, Jewelry, Fine Art, Wine, Umbrella, Watercraft, Flood and Excess Flood in all 50 states with the best insurance companies. He is creative in finding ways to reduce your premiums.
Having friends and a vibrant social life is critical to happiness in my opinion. There were times in my life that work and going to University Chicago at night for my MBA made a social life impossible and I was quite frustrated. This article outlines a concerning study about making friends. Social isolation didn’t stop with the pandemic, and a concerning new poll finds many Americans are still starving for human contact in 2024. Specifically, researchers found that more than a third of Americans feel their social life is “stuck in a rut” (37%). The survey of 2,000 adults who have traveled with friends in the past also found that 39% haven’t made a new friend in over a year, and a similar percentage haven’t gone to a party in at least six months (38%). For many, it’s also been at least a year since they’ve gone to a concert with a friend (59%) or been on vacation with them (44%). Conducted by Talker Research for CheapCaribbean Vacations, the poll finds that while most would describe their existing friendships as fun and ever-changing (58%), a quarter of respondents believe their social lives feel repetitive (26%). Thinking about the friends they do have, the average person who said they have a “best friend” would knight two of their lucky friends with that title. My friends in South Florida are amazing. We are always meeting, grabbing a drink, having dinner, golfing, fishing, padel or tennis, or having some other adventure. These relationships make for a far better life.
I have often written about new restaurants that have come to South Florida with the immense wealth migration. One of my all-time favorite high-end grocery stores, Eataly, is coming to Florida in both Aventura and West Palm Beach. I literally spend thousands of dollars each year on olive oil, canned tomatoes, pasta, pesto and other items from Eataly on-line. Looks like soon I will be able to drive 35 minutes to pick it up in person. World-renowned Italian food hall Eataly is coming to CityPlace in West Palm Beach next year. Eataly, the global Italian marketplace and restaurant space, will join the shops and restaurants within the experiential neighborhood of CityPlace, located in the heart of the city’s downtown, in the fall of 2025. They have amazing meats, fresh pasta and a huge selection of olive oils, canned tomatoes and everything else you need to prepare an Italian feast. Their annual “Sale-tember,” each September can’t be missed. I just crushed a big pasta order on Sunday, given there was a big sale. My olive oils are finishing oils used on veggies, meats, fish and to make salad dressing and marinades. Trust me, these are game changers. On the website, they describe the flavor and best uses for the oils to guide you.
Israel/Middle East
A reader sent me this link to Canary Mission. The site exposes people and groups that promote hatred of the USA, Israel and Jews. You can send them story ideas. I love this one!
We know the Squad sides with Hamas and hates Jews, so it should not be surprising that their donors feel the same.
UN peace exhibit features slogan calling for Israel to be wiped off the map: 'Shameful'
A Global Peace Flag exhibit at the United Nations New York City headquarters features a slogan that many Israelis regard as an explicit call to wipe Israel off the map. Welcome to the world where Jews and Israel are hated.
Other Headlines
US Manufacturing Activity Contracts for Seventh Straight Month
Fired CBS reporter Catherine Herridge reveals how network killed Hunter Biden story: ‘I felt sick’
I have a problem with bias. Whether from the Left the Right. As American citizens, we deserve better. The media clearly made a conscious effort around the 2020 election to block certain stories and promote others even though they were clearly not true. There should be consequences.
Illegal Immigrant Sexually Assaults 4 Minors in New Orleans Suburb
Minors were aged 4 to 13.
Suspected illegal migrant faces charges in death of 25-year-old Georgia mom
Americans Feel Pressured to Move Out of Ohio Town Overwhelmed by Migrant Arrivals
Drug gangs ‘threaten to turn France into Mexicanised narco-state’
Wait, open borders are hurting Europe too? Idiotic immigration policy strikes again.
29 children may be sentenced to death for protesting against cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria
‘Dawson’s Creek’ alum James Van Der Beek announces colorectal cancer diagnosis
My mother died of complications from colorectal cancer. Be sure to get your colonoscopy done. The cost of missing this could mean your life.
Novo’s New Obesity Drug Is Targeting the Most Dramatic Weight Loss Yet
At the rate we are going, there will be a big dent made in the obesity epidemic.
Students With Growth Mindset Learn More in School: Evidence From California’s CORE School Districts
Facial Recognition That Tracks Suspicious Friendliness Is Coming to a Store Near You
This technology shows you if your employees are “too friendly” with customers, which may lead to giving away to free stuff. Amazing.
Being a job hopper is a big red flag for me, too.
Why flights to Europe are the cheapest they’ve been in years
European Officials Allege Russia Is Plotting To Bomb US-Bound Passenger & Cargo Planes
Real Estate
We have not seen as many office to condo/apartment conversions as I would have hoped, but 2 Wall Street in NYC is moving forward with it. Newmark filed permits this week on behalf of 2 Wall Street owner Fieldston Capital, which is associated with Hong Kong-based firm Aegis Asset Management. Plans call for turning the eighth through the top floor of the 21-story tower, between Broadway and Nassau Street, into 121 apartments. The lower floors will continue to be office space. I just would never live in the Wall Street area.
There is an article outlining 10 expensive homes across the US ranging from $24.5mm to $108mm. Of note, 6 of the 10 are in South Florida. Pre-pandemic, there might be two Florida homes on the list. The $108mm house in La Jolla, CA is among the ugliest homes I have ever seen, but it is perched on a cliff overlooking the Pacific. The sunsets must be amazing. There are pictures for the homes.
I recently wrote about AAA securitized office bonds under pressure. This note shows that “Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after the Financial Crisis.”
Tom Ford bought a mansion in London’s Chelsea neighborhood for over $100mm. The transaction is one of this year’s rare high points for London’s property market that’s suffered a slump in luxury-home deals partly due to highly anticipated reforms affecting wealthy UK residents officially domiciled overseas, or “non-doms.” Last week, besides announcing the abolition of the preferential tax status enjoyed by non-doms, the Labour government also increased the stamp duty on second home purchases, further damping sentiment among wealthy, discretionary buyers.
Proposition 33, the rent control statewide ballot measure, is rejected by California voters
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #732 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
