Opening Comments
My last note was about escalating college tuition. I got a bunch of emails on this topic, and one stood out: someone pointed out that the money spent on private school for three kids in NYC and then college could have been invested in the S&P instead, turning into millions. The most opened links were the CNN weekly news quiz (I got 9 out of 10) and the best stretch for longevity.
A reminder that the Rosen Report growth is 100% word of mouth. I have never advertised, and after inviting the initial 18 readers, the rest of the growth has come from my loyal followers inviting readers to join the fun. The report has been read in all 50 states and 104 countries over the past 90 days. Please forward it around, hit the like button if you find it interesting, and help get the word out.
I went to a party in Miami Beach on Wednesday night. The drive should be an hour or less with no traffic. Trump was speaking at a conference near the location of the party. The last 1/10th of one mile took me 32 minutes bringing the ride to 1:53 minutes. When Trump is in town, it is an unmitigated traffic mess. Getting around Palm Beach Island when he is at Mar-a-Lago is a nightmare as well.
Videos of the Day-Whale Eats a Kayaker & The Chicago River is Frozen
Markets
Consumer Credit Stress
Career Advice
Bond Franchise News
49er’s Potential $9bn Valuation
Carmel, CA Housing
Madison Avenue Office Building For Sale
American Dream Mall in NJ
Video of the Day-Whale Eats a Kayaker & Frozen River
This is a crazy short video where a whale ate a kayak before spitting it out. Check out the short video. I would have crapped my pants. The 2nd short video is of the Chicago River that froze due to frigid temperatures. The video does not look real. How many reasons does one need to not live in Chicago?
Iceman
One of my loyal readers, Penelope, has sent me some great books and gifts. One of the books she sent was called, The Wim Hof Method. Hof is a Dutch motivational speaker and extreme athlete known to swim under ice for extended periods of time. His nickname is the “Iceman.” Through Hof’s breathing techniques and mindset changes, he believes you can overcome anything and push yourself to do amazing things. Hof's method seems to be inspired by thousands-year-old technique where the Indian Saints used to practice Yoga and Meditation in the Himalayas under extreme cold weather.
As my readers know, I have many ailments and, although I am a fit 55, the wear and tear on my body makes me feel 85 years old. My new padel/pickle/gym club, Replay, in Boynton Beach has two cold plunges. I was unable to go in them given how uncomfortable it was for me in the cold water. I lacked the mental strength to do it despite years of surfing in cold water. I would only be able to go into the cold plunge up to my calves and last 12-20 seconds. You heard that right. SECONDS. It was embarrassing. People would make fun of me and my inability to handle the cold plunge.
My friend Adam is far more accomplished at the cold plunge and coached me to get to a minute. It felt like an hour, but I learned a couple of things. One, jump in the tub quickly rather than slowly. And two, regulate your breathing, slowing it down as Wim Hof suggests.
After getting in for one minute, I made it to two minutes and I was beaming. It turns out after you can last one-minute, your body regulates itself and are not freezing. The next time, I did 2 minutes and 29 seconds and then 3 minutes and 34 seconds. Then on Tuesday, I got in for 4 minutes and 30 seconds and am legally changing my name to Eric “the Iceman” Rosen now that I figured it out.
My point is simple. Just because you are unable to do something today does not mean you can’t do it tomorrow. I love pushing myself to improve on everything I do. I like to be intellectually curious and learn new things and make small improvements each day. Learn from those around you. Set your mind to accomplish a goal and make strides to improve. Wim is able to do amazing things by intensely training, and I was convinced I could not go one minute in a cold plunge… until I did it, and now it is easy.
However, do be careful with these cold plunges. I am not convinced doing this for extended periods adds value and is incredibly dangerous. I will not go more than 5 minutes in the cold plunge, and be sure you do not do this alone in case you have any issues.
Quick Bites
Economic data, inflation concerns, and mixed earnings this week had stocks more volatile and weaker. Stocks sold off on Thursday post Wal-Mart’s lackluster earnings forecast. More companies are discussing tariff uncertainty on earnings calls and waning consumer confidence. Also contributing to the volatility was Palantir that was sharply lower (-12% on week) post an announcement of defense department spending cuts and the CEO selling stock. Defense stocks have been hit since Trump was elected through Thursday-Lockheed Martin is -20.6%, Northrup Grummon -15.5%, General Dynamics -17.1% and L3 Harris Tech is -21.8%. Markets do not like uncertainty, and Trump should quickly outline his tariff plans. Recent weak retail data and concern about consumers also sent bank stocks sharply lower on Thursday with GS -3.8% and JPM -4% on the day, while the KBW Bank Index fell 2.2%. On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell 10%, a steeper drop than expected. Also, US Services PMI fell to 49.7 from 52.9. On the week, the S&P was -1.6%, and Nasdaq -2.4%. It seems companies that give weak guidance, miss numbers, or have negative news are starting to really get hit harder this week (United Healthcare, Wal-mart, Block, Dropbox, Hims, Savers Value Village, Car Gurus, RealReal, Arbor Realty, Akamai, and others. Given the stock weakness, Treasury yields fell with the 10-year closing at 4.43% or -4bps on week. Gold is at $2,955/oz and hit an all-time high Thursday pushing the metal +12% YTD. Clearly, inflation concerns and the impacts of tariffs are part of the story on gold. On the overall market, famed investor Steve Cohen suggests tariffs and DOGE cuts are negative for the economy and there could be a market correction soon. Goldman is suggesting a correction may be coming as well.
Hedge fund manager, Bruce Richards posted this story on consumer credit stress. 90-day delinquency rates are approaching multi-year highs. This deterioration is particularly noteworthy given that 1) corporate default rates continue to trend downward, 2) investor appetite for credit remains robust with credit markets strong, 3) consumers enjoy strong with wage and employment gains. The New York Federal Reserve's Equifax data (chart below) reveals concerning trends in the auto loan sector. Current 90-day+ delinquency rates have reached 2.96%, the highest level observed in the past 25 years, excluding the Global Financial Crisis period. This time series data, spanning from 2000 to present, underscores the degree of severity. The consumer has been far more resilient than I thought possible.
Gen Z and millennial workers think job-hopping is the only way up the ladder these days. But Cisco’s U.K. CEO’s career journey proves that patience could be key to long-term success. Company loyalty is dying. Research has shown that 75% of employees leave their gig before ever getting promoted; They’re giving their bosses just 3 years to promote them before concluding the job is a dead end and jumping ship. But Cisco’s new U.K. chief has a word of warning for young workers who expect a raise and a shiny new job title every year: “You just need to be patient in the journey,” Sarah Walker tells Fortune—and middle managers need to be “really patient.” I am of the view that loyalty changed dramatically during the Global Financial Crisis when so many capable people lost their jobs. I feel you should give your company a chance and be patient up to a point. The onus is on you to work hard, have a positive attitude, find ways to add value, and generate ideas/revenue. If you are giving 110% and not making progress, ask for feedback. If you are not producing, you should not be promoted or paid well. I was the youngest MD at JPM Chase for a reason. I added a lot of value and worked my ass off. I stayed at JPM for 15 years. It was a great time in my career, but I had big job opportunities I should have taken – and one would have resulted in me owning an NBA team. Not taking the job in 2008 was the biggest mistake of my career.
The James Bond related saga between Barbara Broccoli and Amazon is over. The creative differences prevented new bond films and a lot of tension with Broccoli calling Amazon “F-ing idiots,” at one point according the WSJ. Under the terms of the agreement, Amazon MGM Studios will gain creative control of the James Bond franchise, while Wilson and Broccoli will remain co-owners of the 60-year-old property. In 2022, Amazon acquired MGM, including a vast catalog with more than 4,000 films and 17,000 TV shows. News of the joint venture comes amid continuing speculation about Bond 26, the next iteration of the 007 franchise, after Daniel Craig hung up the tuxedo for good in 2021’s No Time to Die. Barbara Broccoli echoed that it was time for her to step aside and allow Amazon MGM Studios to take over the creative reins. I love the Bond franchise, iconic soundtracks, and action-packed films. I look forward to the new film. For the record, I am officially putting my hat in the ring. Mr. Bezos, I want to be the next James Bond. As an aside, in 2013, the first trade in my hedge fund, Reef Road Capital, was buying MGM stock.
I have written about professional team valuations including my last note that had a section on the value of NBA teams. This article outlines the 49ers family which owns 90% of the team is considering selling a 10% state to private equity at a valuation of approximately $9bn. Recent articles from just a few months ago suggested the valuation was $6bn. Edward Debartolo Sr. bought the team for $13mm in 1977.
Politics
There’s so much on tariffs, and they change so often that it’s hard to keep up. I read an article that had some key dates to watch:
‘Mad as hell’ Canadians cancel US travel en masse as trade war escalates
Trump says deal with Ukraine for US access to its rare earth minerals is ‘pretty close’
Deals that help America are ones I support. Other countries made “loans” to Ukraine, and we just gave them hundreds of billions. We should be paid back for all our support.
NY Post Ridicules Trump’s Ukraine Stance With ‘THIS IS A DICTATOR’ Cover
Trump administration reassigning acting ICE director
I have been shocked at the slow pace of deportations after all the big talk from Trump.
Trump ousts Joint Chiefs chairman, other leaders in major Pentagon shake-up
DOGE-nearly $40 billion in spending linked to government-issued credit cards
Zeldin EPA discovers $2 billion stashed away by Biden admin for Stacey Abrams-linked climate group
I truly hope DOGE is successful in reducing government waste and makes a dent in the $2 trillion deficits.
Trump says he’s weighing giving 20% of DOGE savings to Americans
DON’T do this. Take all savings and reduce the deficit. Article that takes my side.
Postal Service braces for potential takeover by Trump’s Commerce Department
USPS is horribly inefficient and lost almost $10bn last year. I went to a post office the other day and waited 20 minutes to send a package with one employee and 15 people in line.
Surprising new poll numbers released on Trump's performance so far in the White House
Approval ratings are edging down and outlined in the link.
New York Gov. Hochul will not remove Mayor Eric Adams ‘right now’
McConnell won’t seek reelection to Senate
He has served since 1985 and is well past his prime. Term and age limits, please. He has had multiple freezing and falling issues in recent years and is not in a condition to serve the country. Sadly, he is #55 on the all time list of longest serving Congress or Senate members. The record is John Dingell at 59 years and 21 days and McConnell is a mere 40 years and 50 days.
On the border, federal agents now outnumber illegal crossers — and migrants cry when they get caught
Trump wants to ‘abolish’ the IRS and replace it with tariffs. Can it work?
I just do not see this happening (end of income taxes).
Americans Are Heading for the Exits
Article suggests an uptick in Americans wanting to leave the country with gun violence and the rise of “far-right” politics pushing people out. One country, Germany, seems to be getting incoming requests from scientists. Good luck folks. Nothing could ever get me to live in Germany.
Middle East
Hamas needs to be eliminated. There is not enough global outrage for what these terrorists have done. Murdering babies? Turns out Hamas did not initially release Shari Bibas’ body, but the body of a Gazan woman instead.
Hamas leaves sick message on Shiri Bibas’ coffin after her body is returned from Gaza Strip
Coffins of the victims had “date of arrest” on them. The US and Israel need to wipe out anyone affiliated with Hamas.
Israel vows revenge against Hamas for parading bodies of hostages: ‘We will settle the score’
Six ex-hostages freed from Hamas captivity, arrive in Israeli territory
This marks the first time in the deal that hostages were released in Rafah and in Nuseirat.
Israel delays release of Palestinian prisoners, citing ‘degrading’ and ‘cynical’ hostage handovers
Here we go again. Time for the US and Israel to end this for good.
Other Headlines
Warren Buffett amasses more cash and sells more stock, but doesn’t explain why in annual letter ($334bn of cash)
Cruise stocks tumble after Commerce Secretary Lutnick signals tax crackdown
The article points out that many cruise ships are domiciled outside the U.S. to avoid U.S. taxes. A potential crackdown on this practice sent cruise line stocks down 8-11% in a day.
Questions about Medicare billing practices. Stock -9% on Friday alone.
Alibaba shares soar nearly 15% after stellar earnings as China's e-commerce sector recovers
Amazon surpasses Walmart in revenue for the first time (for the quarter)
WMT was largest generator of revenue since 2012 after it edged out Exxon. WMT is projected for $708bn in annual sales and AMZN $701bn. From a market cap perspective, WMT $780 bn is AMZN is $2.4 trillion.
Meta approves plan for bigger executives bonuses following 5% layoffs
AppLovin Stock Tumbles As Short Seller Takes Closer Look At What's Driving Enormous Gains
Block shares fall on profit, revenue miss (-17%-Worst day in 5 years)
Rivian beats Wall Street’s fourth-quarter expectations, but expects lower deliveries in 2025
Energy drink Celsius up 29% on big quarterly results, Alani Nu acquisition
‘NJ Transit Is Ruining My Life’: Commuters Reach Breaking Point With Aging System
Riders air a range of grievances with New Jersey Transit as trains and buses are snarled by crumbling infrastructure. “Every day I go into the office my train is delayed and I risked being fired,” one complaint read.
Grand jury says police department should be 'abolished' as 5 officers charged
This is a crazy story about a corrupt and inept police force in Alabama. Five Hanceville police officers were arrested.
This workplace ‘superpower’ helped me rise to the top, says first Black woman CEO in the Fortune 500
Dave Ramsey says he can 100% tell who will stay middle-class by looking at the cars they drive
I am 100% in agreement. I drive a Kia Telluride (#1 Car & Driver). Cars are depreciating assets. Fancy cars are a crappy investment, and those who drive around in $100k+ cars far too often can’t afford them. Years ago, my daughter went on a playdate and the people had $400k in cars in a house worth $400k. Sorry folks, that is not a way to build wealth.
Pope Francis in critical condition after a 'respiratory crisis,' Vatican says
LIV players could return to PGA Tour by March as merger nears completion
Health
3 subtle signs you need time off from work, says psychologist—and how not to ‘waste’ your PTO
I went through a tough time at one point in my career, and I was not myself. In hindsight, I probably needed to walk away for a couple weeks and recharge the batteries. My ego would not allow me to do it. Mistake.
New test could detect Alzheimer’s sign a decade before it shows up on brain scans
Two Alzheimer’s drugs help patients live independently at home for longer periods
8 foods that are bad for your teeth, according to dentists
Sticky sugary candies, hard candies, crackers, hard chips, citrus fruits, dried fruit, ice.
The 25 things linked to a long life-and why having an open fire is one of them
I was surprised by things on the list. Also note, that the US life expectancy is far below other developed countries. Obesity, gun violence, and the fentanyl epidemic all play a role in lower US life expectancy.
Real Estate
I have played Pebble Beach about 10 times in my life. In a famous story, the first time I played in 1998, my playing partner was hit in the head by a golf ball on the 18th hole and rushed to the hospital in a crazy scene that closed the 18th hole. I feel the views and scenery are amazing in the area, but I am not a huge fan of the course. This WSJ article, “Inside Carmel-by-the-Sea, Where Small Homes Sell for Big Money,” outlines prices for homes in the area. Pebble Beach is 2 miles from Carmel by the Sea. The article shows a 2,020 square-foot home for $8.2mm that sits on a lot of 4,992 ft. I would recommend visiting Carmel, CA, and playing Pebble Beach. The town is quaint, and the homes and views are stunning. I would never live there, but to go for a long weekend would be great. Roughly 30% of buyers are from California’s Bay Area; 30% are from Texas; 30% are locals shifting around; and 10% is everyone else, says Jessica Canning, managing partner of Canning Properties Group with Sotheby’s International Realty – Carmel Brokerage.
The property at 590 Madison Ave is being priced at roughly US$1.1 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named citing private details. Eastdil Secured brokers Roy March, Gary Phillips and Will Silverman are marketing the tower. The tower, located on Madison Avenue between 56th and 57th streets, is one of New York’s biggest trophy assets to be actively marketed for sale since the pandemic, a period that has seen few major transactions. The best NYC office buildings are in high demand with sky-high rents and low vacancy. Some of the best buildings get over $200/ft in rent.
I had never heard of American Dream, a newer mall concept in that is in NJ. I am told it is a great place for kids to play with lots of activities. The website looks like it is a fun place to bring a family with no shortage of things to do. Multiple readers have mentioned it recently. There are restaurants, shops, and games, and it looks as though it is geared towards families and is located right next to the Met Life Stadium. Some high end stores in the mall in addition to activities with a full list here. Everything from mini golf and a wave pool to an ice rink, mazes, an aquarium, and more. When my kids were young and the weather was bad, we were always looking for an idea of something to do.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #764 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
Good coverage and a lot of topics. A true Renaissance man.