Fast Friends-How To Make Friends The Rosen Way

2-12-25

Opening Comments

My last note got a lot of responses as it was about my Facebook Reels addiction and getting sucked into awful movies. A reader sent me this story entitled, “Steamy Romances and Vampires: The Chinese-Backed App Appealing to American Moms,” which was appropriate given my last note. The most opened links were the video of Tom Brady’s Super Bowl preparations and the CNBC story of the study on successful kids and what parents did early on to differentiate them.

In a brilliant marketing move by my sponsor, Eight Sleep, the CEO offered free sleep pods to DOGE employees. I have now used my Eight Sleep pod for five months and my data continues to improve. For the first time, I had two perfect sleep scores on consecutive nights. I have seen many readers purchase the Eight Sleep products and all have been happy with it. One professional athlete told me that he now travels with his Eight Sleep, as it improved his outcomes so meaningfully. Check out my data for yourself. If you are interested, use CODE: ROSEN.

Today’s note is a bit abbreviated. I went to Bimini fishing Monday and Tuesday, and I will write about the disaster trip in an upcoming report. No fishing records were broken.

To make matters worse, I now get an error when trying to use ANY Microsoft products and am unable to uninstall and reinstall. I have no tech support. Unmitigated disaster. I have a better chance of winning Powerball than getting Microsoft on the phne.

• Picture of the Day-Global Venture Investments

• How to Make Friends the Rosen Way

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • Corporate Profits and Wages

  • Amazon Prime Chart

  • Teen Vaping, Drinking, Drug Use

  • Worst Super Bowl

• Politics

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Real Estate

  • Another Big Hedge Fund Manager Buys in Palm Beach

  • Most Expensive Cities for Housing Relative to Income

  • Best Cities to Own Short Term Rentals

Picture of the Day-2024 Global Venture Investments

Chamath Palihapitiya sent out this tweet that I thought was interesting. Sometimes I lose perspective on how important the US is globally to the investment world. This chart puts things into perspective. Most of the world’s largest venture firms and are US based.

Fast Friends-How To Make Friends The Rosen Way

I am not a shy person, and I find ways to connect with people wherever I go. When I was a tennis player, I would be mesmerized by one amazing player in particular at the Boca Resort. I would watch him smash the ball to the baseline every time with another impressive hitting partner and would be frustrated that my stroke was not nearly as polished, and my command of the game was a fraction of his despite being a similar age. At times, I would not pay attention to my own game to watch his great play.

I never spoke with the man but saw him in the gym one day on the leg press machine. I walked up to him and said, “I don’t like you. You make me look bad.” He looked at me perplexed and said, “What the hell are you talking about?” I explained his tennis prowess was offending me and that I prefer he play a few courts away so no one can see me and him at the same time, as it was ruining my tennis credibility. He got a good laugh out of it and a friendship was born.

It turns out Lorne and I have a lot of mutual friends. Also, he is from Montreal, while my entire family is from Montreal as well. Lorne went to high school with my former partner’s wife. Lorne and I have socialized and speak frequently. We played tennis one day and it was a disaster. He had me running the court like a 5 pack a day smoker. I quit tennis over 6 months ago given my full-time padel playing and I invited him to Replay a few weeks ago to introduce him to padel. I explained the game to him and showed him some moves. Given he is such an accomplished rackets player, he picked up padel irritatingly fast. His net play is remarkable given his hands.

In short order, Lorne has played nearly a dozen times and is hooked. So much so that he organized an event with a couple dozen very advanced tennis players to help convert them to the better sport, padel. We hosted it at Replay last week and it was a huge success with a bunch of clinics and open play. So many remarkable athletes that picked up the game quickly. If you are good at tennis or squash, give padel a try. If you play it a handful of times after a lesson or two, you will be hooked and never look back.

I made a new friend through tennis, but the real bonding is over padel.

Quick Bites

• On Tuesday Powell signaled the Fed does not need to move quickly to ease monetary policy and the 10-Year Treasury sold off 5bps on the day, but stocks were largely unchanged. On Wednesday, markets sold off after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped .5% for the month, which was higher than the .3% estimate. The annual rate of inflation is back to 3%, while Core CPI is 3.3% on annualized basis. I can tell you that grocery shopping or going out to a restaurant is shockingly expensive and it does not appear to be getting better anytime soon. Egg rationing at Costco and Trader Joe’s is taking place due to Avian Flu. Major indices sold off 1% on Wednesday but recovered to down .5% or less. I was a bit surprised the market recovered despite the hot inflation data. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 10bps and is back to 4.64% post inflation data. The US Dollar continues to strengthen and hit 108.5 against the basket (DXY), as the prospect for higher rates for longer continue to remain in place. For perspective, it was 100.8 in September.

  

  

• In a note that accompanies the charts below, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid notes that U.S. corporate profits and asset prices are near all-time highs, while the budget and trade deficits are near historic highs. At the same time, wages are near their lowest ever when measured as a share of gross domestic product. Reid breaks down how these metrics fit together. Much like in 2000, investors are now arguing that high stock prices are justified by high corporate profits relative to GDP. But the current situation is more extreme, he noted. As the first chart shows, between the end of World War II and around 2000, U.S. profits largely ranged between 5% to 7% of GDP, so the 2000 bubble peak wasn’t all that remarkable. “So for now the U.S. has very high corporate profits, very high asset prices, very high fiscal deficits, very high trade deficits, and very low wages versus history,” he said. “These five extremes together don’t feel sustainable but they’ve existed for several years already, so trying to work out the turning point is tough.”

• A reader sent me this chart of Prime users in the US. Remember, there are 335mm people and 127mm households in the US. Pretty impressive by Bezos. I believe we must be in the top 1% of Amazon users based on the number of boxes we get delivered each week. This story hit the tape today: Amazon opens beauty and personal care store in Italy as part of brick-and-mortar expansion.

• I am an adamant nonsmoker. I have never smoked a cigarette in my life and my kids now that there would be consequences for smoking and vaping. This NY Post article outlines teens and their smoking and drinking habits. According to University of Michigan researchers, use of nicotine pouches among American high schoolers has doubled since just 2023. Vaping nicotine still remains extremely popular, but it is actually on the decline in high schools. The number of high schoolers vaping peaked in 2019 with 5 million using nationwide. For older teens, vaping has since declined by 60%, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). High school kids are now hooked on nicotine and using Zyn pouches. According to a 2023 CDC report, vaping is on the rise among middle schoolers — 3.5% of whom currently vape nationwide. The article also suggests kids are drinking less alcohol and discusses the prevalence of marijuana now that it is so readily available.

• I love seeing sports dynasties. I loved the Lakers, and Bulls, amazing runs. The Patriot’s dynasty was remarkable, and I appreciate what the Chiefs have accomplished. However, the Chiefs did not have a great year despite a strong record. They barely won games, and Mahomes had an off year. I should not have been surprised by the outcome of the game, but I sure was. The Chiefs had 23 yards of offense in the 1st half, while the Eagles had 24 first half points. How is that possible? The Eagles outcoached and outplayed the Chief’s from every angle. Shockingly, the broadcast had 127.7mm viewers, a new record. Mahomes is a first ballot Hall of Fame QB already. However, how will he respond to this humiliation will be quite telling.

• Super Bowl food and drink prices as fans face shelling out $100 for salad and $17 for beer

• Super Bowl 59 ads recap: Watch the best commercials from the big game

• Tom Brady Gets Roasted After Flaunting 'Grotesque' $740K Watch At Super Bowl: 'Terrible Choice'

  

Politics

• CBS News poll: 70% of voters say Trump keeping campaign promises, 53% approval rating

  • According to the results, 59% of voters approve of his deportation operation and 64% support his decision to send U.S. troops to the U.S. Mexico border.

• Ken Griffin says Trump’s ‘bombastic’ trade rhetoric is a mistake that’s eroding trust in the U.S.

  • I agree with Griffin. I do not like the way Trump has handled the tariffs. I am all for tariffs to negotiate and get a better deal, but what Trump has done is confusing and inconsistent.

• GM expects to mitigate up to 50% of potential North American tariffs, which Ford describes as ‘chaos’

• Trump signs order to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum — here are the likely winners and losers

• Trump’s steel tariffs could trigger broader trade war as EU threatens ‘proportionate countermeasures’

• China imposes retaliatory tariffs on $14bn worth of US goods

• Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as nation's intelligence chief

• Trump says interest rates should be lowered to go ‘hand in hand’ with his tariffs

  • With the hot CPI data and persistent inflation, this is not going to happen. Also, make up your mind on tariffs. Too much uncertainty. Have them or don’t.

• Trump says he has spoken to Putin about ending the Ukraine war

• Trump insists he trusts Musk in sit-down with Bret Baier — while reaffirming what US depts. he will target next

• USAID Funded Massive 'News' Platform, Extending 'Censorship Industrial Complex' To Billions Worldwide

• EX-USAID Chief Samantha Power’s net worth skyrockets from $6.7mm to $30mm on a $180k Salary

  • Clearly, this warrants an investigation as to how it happened in three years.

• FEMA employees fired over ‘egregious’ $59M payment for NYC migrants

• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau staff told to ‘stand down’ from all work

• ‘Our Democracy Is Under Siege’ Former Treasury Secretaries Write Scathing NY Times Op-Ed Warning Against DOGE’s ‘Threat to America’

• Inside FEMA’s sickening history of misspending billions of taxpayers’ dollars — and going largely unchecked

• Trump fires USAID’s top watchdog after reports of billions wasted on educating al Qaeda terrorist and drag shows

• A tidal wave of resistance is coming for Elon Musk

  • I like a lot of what DOGE is doing. I would like them to be more focused and knock out each different segment one at a time. They are a little bit too all over the place. I know there are countless hundreds of billions of waste in the Federal government and hope it is uncovered and put in the public domain. I just want to be sure DOGE is not cutting critical departments as well.

• Sen. Elizabeth Warren: Current FDIC staffing shortages ‘threaten the safety and soundness of the banking system’

• Trump’s DOJ to toss NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ historic bribery case, agrees with Dem that charges were politically motivated by Biden admin

• Trump pardons disgraced former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich

• Trump Migrant Deportation Numbers Compared to Obama, Biden

  • Trump is off to a far slower start than I anticipated based on all his talk with respect to mass deportations.

• 2 Decades Ago, A Senator's Probe Of USAID Funding Led To Government Transparency Reform

• DOGE Cancels $180,000 Anthony Fauci Museum Exhibit

• Trump FBI pick Kash Patel accused of directing staff purge while still a nominee

• Social media erupts after Schumer opens tipline for whistleblowers to report government 'abuses of power'

• Reporter Barred from Oval Office Over 'Gulf of America' Clash, Outlet Says

• At least 200,000 protesters rally in Munich against far-right AfD ahead of German election

Middle East

• Hamas cancels all hostage releases until further notice

• Trump warns Hamas to free hostages by noon Saturday or he will ‘let hell break out’

• 'Not Possible': Jordan Would Seal Borders, Declare War On Israel If Gazans Forced Out

• Pale, gaunt Israeli hostages freed from Gaza captivity as scores of Palestinian prisoners released under ceasefire deal

• Hamas says Israeli military withdraws from Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor

• Now Columbia’s anti-Israel student protesters have the audacity to sue the school for suspending them

• AI-created clip featuring Jewish celebs takes swing at Kanye West over rapper’s blatant antisemitism

  • I could not tell if it was real. Someone had sent me just the clip.

• Australian healthcare workers threaten Israeli man, claim to have killed Jews in their care on camera

Other Headlines

• Musk-led investor group offers $97.4 billion for OpenAI — Altman declines

• Tesla drops 6% after BYD partners with DeepSeek, Musk adds to DOGE distractions with OpenAI bid

• Anduril to take over Microsoft’s $22 billion U.S. Army headset program

• Deepseek’s AI model is ‘the best work’ out of China but the hype is ‘exaggerated,’ Google Deepmind CEO says

• California Levies $1 Billion Assessment on Insurers for LA Fires

  • Good luck getting insurance in California.

• Many workers would take a pay cut to work from home — some would forgo at least 20% of their salary

• 'Work force is missing': Air traffic controllers in peril nationwide

• 3 ultra-processed foods these nutrition experts never buy—and the healthy alternatives they eat instead

• Quitting bad habits cold turkey makes you ‘miserable,’ says Buddhist neuroscientist—use these 3 steps instead

• How surgeons could soon be operating on you from a different country

• At least 8 states now have legislative efforts to ban COVID mRNA shots

• His company operates over 500 private jet flights a day: This is the No. 1 thing the very rich value most

• Looming $2.7 billion Pell Grant shortfall poses a new threat for college aid

• NYC dad of four tragically shot dead, girlfriend ‘badly beaten’ after confronting stranger parked in driveway spot

• Illegal alien charged in sandwich shop owner's murder caught and released into US under Biden

• The dramatic moment ICE grabs Tren de Aragua murder suspect hiding out in Houston

• Busted Fentanyl Super Lab In Canada Makes "Breaking Bad Look Minor League": Former Trump Official

• Air traffic controller shortage of 3,800 due to DEI practices cutting ‘too white, too elite’ candidates

• Man stunned when restaurant stranger pays $85 breakfast bill

  • Great story about a great dad. I wish we heard more like this one.

• New Zealand Changes ‘Golden Visa’ to Lure Wealthy Migrants

  • Never been to New Zealand but fantasize about living there for some reason.

• Asian airline named world’s best for 2025 by AirlineRatings

• Russia’s sick torture of Ukrainian POWs — including shocks to genitals, beatings, amputations — laid bare in ICC testimony

• NASA makes emergency call as odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid striking Earth increase

  • The likelihood of it hitting Earth went from 1% to 2.3%. NASA is not certain of the asteroid’s size at this point.

• How I know Trump is about to open the floodgates when it comes to UFOs

  • This is the day I have been waiting for. I want to know all. I am convinced we are not alone and someone knows about it.

Real Estate

• Another big hedge fund manager plopped down $20mm for a Palm Beach lot that comes with a Mar-a-Lago membership. Marathon Asset Management CEO Bruce Richards bought a non-waterfront lot in Palm Beach for $19.5 million, adjacent to President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and several of the Trump family’s island homes. The property was first listed in January as a spec home asking $45 million. The sale includes approved plans for a 13,400-square-foot mansion with six bedrooms, eight bathrooms and one half-bathroom, the listing shows. Richards is the co-founder and CEO of Marathon Asset Management in New York City. The firm works across asset classes in public and private credit and has more than $23 billion in assets under management, according to its website. Richards bought unit 12A in Central Park West for $19.4 million when the building was completed in 2008.

  • Separately, a large lot in front of Sloan’s Curve raised the price from $150mm to $200mm with “concept drawings” for an Italian-Style mansion. The lot is about 2 acres.

• Concerning CNBC article about the most expensive cities in the US from a housing as a percent of income perspective. ALL are in California that also has the highest tax rates, gas prices, electricity prices and a very high cost of living. Financial experts generally recommend putting no more than 30% of your income toward housing. But for many Americans, that’s next to impossible — especially if they want to be homeowners. Nationwide, Americans earning the median income need to spend 41.8% of their salary on housing to afford to own a median-priced home, according to a recent Redfin study. Redfin’s calculations assume a 6.72% mortgage rate and 15% down payment, and use household income data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2023, adjusted for 2024 wage growth.

  

• This CNBC article lists the 10 best places to invest in short-term rentals. Starting a short-term rental business in buzzy destinations like Destin, Florida or Vail, Colorado has a lot of appeal, but a new report says that some of the small and mid-sized cities across America might be the better place to start. In January, AirDNA released a report that ranks the best places to invest in short-term rentals and it found that small cities and rural areas saw a 16% increase in short-term rental listings, while mid-sized cities grew by 10.3%.

  

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #761 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.