Opening Comments
My last note was about the impact of influencers and the money they make. The most opened links were the game Uncovered Shorts and the article about the sorority student spending $200k at the University of Alabama.
There was some drama in Boca as my daughter’s former high school had a homecoming party off campus run by students. Boys from the school organized it and sold hundreds of tickets between $65-$100 a piece and announced the location the day of the party. Turns out, It was at a hotel where a man had previously murdered people; in other words, the aspiring “entrepreneurs” tried to save money by hosting the party at a gross location. No refunds were given and another student’s father saved the day by paying for the event at a far better location. It reminded me of the Frye Festival story. I don’t know if anyone showed up at the initial location. All of my daughter’s friends went to the other party.
My neighbor, Adam, got the new Tesla Cyber Truck. I had read awful reviews of it with owners citing all kinds of issues. He has not had any problems and took me and Jack for a ride in it to play padel. The car drove amazingly well and was quite nice. The bed of the truck is huge, and the backseat is roomy. Assuming the kinks are worked out, Musk did it yet again.
Video of the Day-Steve Jobs on What it Takes to be Successful
Markets
Treasury Market
Art Market/Sotheby’s
Hurricane Helene
Stalked by AI
Elliott Buys Miami Office Building
Greenwich, CT Update
Housing Inventory
Video of the Day-Steve Jobs on What it Takes to be Successful
A question was asked of Jobs on what it takes to be successful. He had a very eloquent answer about loving what you do and the need to have passion to keep going in the face of adversity. “It is so hard that any rational person would give up,” said Jobs. The video is less than two minutes. He suggested you need to love what you do to persevere because it is hard work. My sister sent me this article about Steve Jobs and his 10-minute rule, which is also interesting.
Fishing Near a Cat 4 Storm
I went to Venice, Louisiana Wednesday through Friday, just as Hurricane Helena was barreling down 250 miles away in Florida. The trip started off a bit rough. I left my laptop on an American Airlines flight and did not realize it until I was two hours away. I will spare you the details, but it was not returned to lost and found until Friday and I was in a panic. I had no laptop to publish on Wednesday, so I finished and published from my phone. Today’s note was written on Saturday as a result. One good thing of note; gas is super cheap in Louisiana.
I fished Wednesday afternoon with my friend, Alan, a local guide. The banter and jokes make for a fun time. My new friend, Tyler, also joined, and we had a blast. We caught 25 redfish, some flounder, sheephead, black drum, ladyfish, catfish, and a host of other species. Last year, I caught some MASSIVE bull redfish in the 40" range but this time, they were smaller. The weather in front of the storm was nice, but a bit hot.
We had a great shrimp boil with 30 pounds of shrimp on Wednesday night. There was some spice in there and despite eating a ton, I barely made a dent in the pile of shrimp in front of me. Given they catch shrimp in the Gulf, it is incredibly inexpensive down there.
We were up at 5:30 am Thursday to fish with m pal, Tom (host of the event), and the wind was blowing hard. Although we were fishing inshore again (not going out into the open ocean), it was rough with challenging conditions between wind and strong currents. Will was our guide and we had another fun time.
We started by catching some nice sea trout that are delicious eating fish. We were using light tackle and they hit our lures very hard.
I hooked into a 20lb+ jack crevalle that took me over 10 minutes to reel it in given the light tackle. The very next cast, I caught the tiniest jack of all time. Although we continued to fish until about 1pm, the wind was kicking up, making casting difficult and the fishing was cooling off.
As the hurricane was barreling down 240 miles away, the seas and winds continued to be challenging. We fished Friday but were unable to go 70 miles offshore due to the conditions.
The morning sunrise was amazing in the river before we went out to the open waters in the ocean. However, we did catch some decent-sized amberjack and a 45” swordfish. It was a long day that started at 5 am and included 11 hours on the water. The guide told me that business is down sharply and is the worst year for fishing charters in over a decade. His bookings were -30% YTD and other guides were in the same boat.
Despite the challenging conditions, I had a blast. I ran to the airport Friday night and found my laptop and just made the flight with minutes to spare.
The big takeaway of the trip for me was: life is short. Do some fun stuff, whatever that means for you. I made some new friends and had a blast, despite the conditions that were less than optimal.
Quick Bites
Micron posted guidance that topped expectations leading to a sharp rally in semiconductors on Thursday. The major averages each extended their gains to a third week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow rising about 0.6% for the period. The Nasdaq advanced nearly 1% during the week. Traders received encouraging inflation data that could give the central bank more reason to confidently cut interest rates further. August’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation — increased 0.1%, matching expectations from economists polled by Dow Jones. PCE increased 2.2% at an annualized pace, below the 2.3% forecast. Check out the move in USD/Yen that started with a big rally in the dollar and now a big sell-off to get back to almost unchanged on the year.
The Fed cut rates by 50bps last week, but the 10-year Treasury is +13bps since the cut. For now, bond market professionals are writing off a good portion of the move as a simple makeup for markets pricing in too much easing before the Fed meeting. But the trend bears watching, as it could signal something more ominous ahead. Other reasons cited for the move include the Fed’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation, as well as concerns over the precarious U.S. fiscal situation and the potential that an onerous debt and deficit burden could raise long-term borrowing costs no matter what the Fed does. We need more fiscally responsible politicians in DC. We must stop runaway spending and $2 trillion deficits in perpetuity.
This WSJ article is titled, “The Art Market Is Tanking. Sotheby’s Has Even Bigger Problems.” The sales downturn, driven in part by China’s economic slowdown, wars and volatile U.S. elections, has hit at a crunchtime for the auction house’s highly leveraged billionaire owner, Patrick Drahi, who is fighting fires amid restructuring in his broader telecom empire, Altice. Now, amid signs cash is running low, it is pushing off payments to its art shippers and conservators by as much as six months. Several former and current employees said Sotheby’s this spring gave senior staffers IOUs instead of their incentive pay. And at a meeting this month of higher-ranking executives, some executives expressed worries about whether the company would be able to keep paying its employees on time, according to a person familiar with the discussion. . Sotheby’s told its bondholders the auction portion of the business had a loss of $115 million in the first half of the year, compared to a $3 million profit in the first half of 2023, according to a copy of Sotheby’s unaudited financials for the first half of the year reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Hurricanes are no joke. I moved to South Florida in 1978 and went through countless storms in my now 21 years in South Florida. When a major storm is coming your way, you must evacuate, but not all people listen to reason. Hurricane Helene was a solid Cat 4 storm that created a 20 foot storm surge in some areas. At least 52 people died and the damage has been catastrophic. There are millions of people without power and there has been 25-32” of rain in places in North Carolina. The insurance industry has been slammed between fires in California and heavy rains/storms and hurricanes in Florida. As a result premiums have gone through the roof and many of those insured have been cancelled. This storm will only make matters worse on the insurance front. It is way too early, but I saw estimates as high as $26bn in damages from the storm. This link has a bunch of photos from the storm. A reader told me they saw a 67 foot wave height on a buoy in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
I need a new generator for the house. I called up a company that was recommended to me by a reader and they came out to give me an estimate. They were professional and answered my questions. I then received emails and texts every day for the next week asking, “How did everything go? Can I answer any questions? How did we do? Will you be using our services? Is the project still on the table? Were you happy with the estimate” Are you still looking to get the project done?” The company dared to follow up with a phone call and I lost it on the poor woman calling me to ask me for an update on my project. I said, “I will use anyone but your company given the constant pestering. If I were to hire you, I imagine I would get 300 follow-up messages after the installation. I will go in another direction.” She apologized and told me that there is an AI-generated system that does all the texting and emailing. Here is an idea, dial it down a bit.
2024 Election
The Walz-Vance V.P. Debate Rules Are Out—and They Guarantee Chaos
9pm on CBS Tuesday, October 1st for 90 minutes.
Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants with sexual assault, murder convictions roaming US streets
I have been incredibly critical of the Biden/Harris Administration for the handling of the border. The data released from ICE is damning to the assertions from this administration. Millions of illegal immigrants have come in and too many are dangerous criminals. Why is this good for Americans? I am a firm believer that a country without a border leads to chaos. Note how many Liberal media news outlets have run with this story.
At the border in Arizona, Harris lays out a plan to get tough on fentanyl
Where was this the last four years? Border Patrol union blasts Harris for ‘ignoring problem she created’ after her first visit in 3 years: ‘Where has she been?’
Why is it a debate? Noncitizens should not be allowed to vote.
Kamala Harris roasted for latest ‘word salad’ during softball MSNBC interview
The Economy Is Outperforming in Swing States — It’s Good News for Harris
‘Trump Has Given Her a Giant Opening’
James Carville sees an advantage for Kamala Harris to exploit on an issue that is supposed to be Trump’s strength. It’s the economy, stupid.
Jews and Catholics warn against Trump’s latest loyalty test for religious voters
For the first time in decades, more Americans now identify as Republican (48%) than Democratic (45%)
10 Democrats vote to censure Biden officials over Afghanistan withdrawal
13 service members were killed and billions of defense equipment was left for the Taliban.
‘Madly in Love’ Olivia Nuzzi Had ‘Incredible’ FaceTime Sex With RFK Jr
Israel/Middle East
I have been writing about the escalation in the Middle East and in the last piece, I wrote that I felt things are moving in the wrong direction. In recent days, Israel has significantly increased attacks in Lebanon in attempts to kill Nasrallah (Hezbollah Leader) and it was just confirmed that he is indeed dead. Nasrallah has been the sole Hezbollah commander since 1992. Check out the bunker where he was apparently hiding. Apparently, Israel dropped 83 bunker busting (1-ton) bombs on the bunker. All the impressive things the IDF has done make me wonder how in the hell October 7th happened without Israeli Intelligence in the know. This article is entitled, “How Israel wiped out Hezbollah chiefs one-by-one as ‘Assassination’ of terror leader leaves Middle East on a knife-edge.” I did think this post by Jared Kushner was an informative one from someone with perspective on the Middle East. In his view, Israel has done more damage to Hezbollah in 6 weeks than the U.S. has in 20 years.
Iranian embassy in Beirut warns attack on Hezbollah HQ ‘changes rules of the game’
Attack on Eilat: UAV explodes in port, second drone intercepted; Watch the videos
US warships come under attack in Red Sea as nearly two dozen incoming missiles and drones shot down
Man tied to company suspected of supplying explosive pagers to Hezbollah declared missing
Jews Targeted Significantly More Than Muslims Over the Past Year, FBI Data Show
Cornell Changes Its ‘Tone’ on Anti-Israel Student Facing Deportation, Allows Him To Appeal
Schools in the South are getting a lot more attention for good reason. They do not allow the idiocy of many of the Northeast schools with respect to hating Jews. This WSJ article is called, “Sorry, Harvard. Everyone Wants to Go to College in the South Now.” There are many schools that I will not allow my kids to apply to today. If the school hates Jews, the Rosen kids will not be attending.
Other Headlines
Goldman Says War Risk Premium Is Missing From Oil Markets
I have been writing about this extensively, including in my last note. Remember, the Biden Administration sold the U.S. Strategic Petroleum (SPR) Reserve down to levels not seen in over 40 years and has yet to replenish it.
Dockworkers likely to strike at East and Gulf coast ports
Watch this story that could lead to supply disruptions and price increases.
David Tepper says the Fed has to cut rates at least two or three more times to keep credibility
Sam Altman tells OpenAI staff there’s no plan for him to receive a ‘giant equity stake’ in company
Meta bets big on celebrity AI voices and augmented reality glasses
EchoStar nears deal to sell Dish to DirecTV with $2 billion debt payment looming, sources say
Elon Musk is $100 billion richer than in April thanks to Tesla's stock surge
Elon Musk is worth more than Salesforce or Pepsi after a $100 billion wealth gain since April.
The charges suggest a decade-long campaign contribution scheme including bribery and other charges. Adams is accused of taking of $100k in foreign travel benefits and illegal campaign contributions. When Bill Deblasio’s wife could not account for $850mm in taxpayer money nothing happened to her. When the powers that be turn on you, watch out. Adams changed the password on his cell the day before it was seized by the FBI and claims to have forgotten the new code.
Secret Service agent under investigation for alleged sex assault on Harris aide
The idiocy at the Secret Service continues.
Man threw explosive device inside California courthouse on day of arraignment
NYU softball player beats sicko who attacked her during jog, breaking her hand in brave fight back
I love this. I hope she broke his jaw.
A perfect example of soft-on-crime policies killing Americans. The murderer killed two people for “standing in her gang’s “territory.” Gascon did not want her tried as an adult and she killed yet again.
Restaurant Portions Are About to Get Smaller. Are Americans Ready?
Given obesity in America this is not a bad thing. The article blames economics, demographics and climate science on the shrinking portions.
Do this 1 exercise today to be happier and healthier, life coach says
Drinking alcohol is linked to six types of cancer, experts say: ‘It’s toxic’
4 friends spent $120,000 to launch a startup during grad school—now it brings in $670 million a year
I reached out to invest very early in Warby Parker and sadly, they were not raising funds at the time. I only buy my glasses from WP. The prices are reasonable and quality is amazing. The experience is easy. Well done.
Photo shows 'mind-blowing' great white shark predation event off California coast
Scary photos.
UK court hands prison terms to climate activists who threw soup on Van Gogh’s ‘Sunflowers’
Real Estate
Paul Singer’s massive hedge fund, Elliott Management is under contract to purchase the 33-story office building at 701 Brickell for about $450mm in Miami. The deal marks the New York-based hedge fund’s expanding investments in South Florida. Completed in 1985, 701 Brickell spans 687,000 square feet and was renovated in 2021, the property’s website shows. The building is more than 90 percent leased, with tenants including law firm Holland & Knight, IT and security management software company Kaseya, and Bank of America. Pura Vida has a restaurant at the tower.
Real Estate deals are slowing. I spoke with Mark Pruner from Compass in Greenwich. Inventory is increasing in the fall with more coming on. The weakest part of the market is anything that needs work (a common theme everywhere). If it needs serious work, “it needs to be priced very competitively,” said Pruner. He put a $21mm mid-country home on the market on Monday and it is getting a lot of activity in short order. It is 12,169 feet with 7 beds and 9 full/3 half baths and a 6,000-foot basement. It is on 3.6 acres and includes a tennis court. It was built in 2011 and has been gut-renovated recently. Mark told me 80% of the purchases in Greenwich are all cash (median price $2.9mm and average price is $3.1mm). Forty years ago, two-thirds of deals had a mortgage contingency.
Good article on home buying thoughts with respect to inventory levels. The metro map above—which is sized by total active listing count—removes some of the noise from the county map and shows that the biggest inventory jumps over the past year are concentrated across the Sun Belt.
Other R/E Headlines
Buyer Closes on Kanye West’s Gutted Malibu Mansion for $21M—and Says the Star’s Moves Were ‘Dumb’
I much prefer the way FL treats squatters to how it is handled in NY or CA.
The mortgage demand index reached 142 this month, recording the worst September since 1994.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #721 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
