Opening Comments
My last note was about the freedom of speech in light of the Kimmel situation and what happened under the Biden Administration. This short video suggests Hillary Clinton pressured the EU to use the Digital Services Act to pressure Musk into censorship at Twitter. Although the report received some very positive feedback, it also led to a decent number of unsubscribes, despite what many readers called a “balanced” note. The most opened links were the surprising cure for stress and the short video on work ethic by NFL QB Cam Ward.
News Quiz: Awful showing of 8 out of 10 this week.
Markets
YTD Hedge Fund Returns
Open AI $500bn Valuation into Perspective
Gen X College Debt Woes
Expensive Home Sale in East Hampton
Cracks in the Luxury Housing Market
LA Luxury Market Under Pressure
Housing Affordability in Numbers
Pictures of the Day-Campi Delray
Campi Delray is the sister restaurant to Campagnola on the Upper East side of Manhattan. Campagnola is a fixture in Manhattan and has been around for decades. The menu is much more substantial at Campagnola than at Campi, but I must tell you that I am yet to be disappointed dining at the Delray hotspot. The Italian food is consistently solid and the service is snappy. The crowd is a mixture of 30 somethings who are “dolled” up and the retired folks. Getting a table is challenging for a reason. The food is good and reasonably priced unless you get the meats, which are more fully priced. I started with the wagyu carpaccio and it was great with a healthy portion, and felt like the presentation was interesting. My wife had the yellowtail crudo and again it was a good portion presented nicely. She loved it.
I had the bolognese special and there was nothing left on my plate. If you want a good Italian restaurant with a lively scene, look into Campi at the Ray Hotel. Of note, the town of Delray was packed on this mid-September Saturday night. The traffic is crazy and parking offensive. Use the parking garage or pay a fortune at valet.
Food-7.7
Service-7.7
Ambiance-7.8
Cost-Reasonable-Meats & Valet Parking are Expensive
Forget About It
In January 2025, I wrote a piece on short-term memory that received a great deal of feedback, especially from the crowd my age or older. The story was about how when I am playing padel, I constantly forget the score, especially after a long point. In 2022, I wrote a piece entitled, “Lost Time,” about all the time wasted looking for lost items. This article suggests you get older and wiser and the mind’s peak performance is late middle age. I think I can take the other side of that one.
I am 55 years old and feel I am sharp, but this story brings everything into question. I surfed Tuesday morning, which is a rare occurrence. I mention this only because it is out of the norm. I showered at the beach and changed into jeans in the car as I advise a high school class on an investment project and needed to be there at 11:30 am.
On Wednesday AM, I jumped into my son’s car in the garage, as mine was being serviced. If the key is in the car, it will start. If the key is not in the car, you can’t get the car to start. Well, the car started, and I presumed the key was where I always leave it, in the console next to the gear shifter. I drove to Home Depot and got out of the car. I realized I did not have the key, and it was not in the place I ALWAYS leave it. No big deal, must have fallen under the seat or something. I took out my iPhone and turned on the flashlight. I checked under both sides from both the front and the back. I moved the front seats all the way to the forward position and did it again. I took out my backpack and tried to start the car, and it started, meaning the key was not in my backpack. I was on the phone with my sister, Shelley, and started using a litany of curse words out of frustration. We were now on the 10-minute mark with no key, yet the car started.
Obviously, this is my wife’s fault. When all else fails, she is the cause of any issue that arises in my life. I called her up, accusing her of doing something with the key to a car that she never drives. Nope. She had nothing for me. I uttered a few hundred more curse words and went back to my detective work. I am now sweating in the South Florida humidity, and my blood pressure was rising.
The contents of my car were now in the parking lot of Home Depot on Hillsboro Boulevard. I started the car for the 10th time, signaling that the key was still in the car. I rechecked the places I have already looked at countless times, and no joy. What I thought was a five-minute trip to Home Depot is now in the 25th minute, and I was yet to walk into the store to return $51 worth of goods. I would rather have thrown them away at this point.
Frustrated is insufficient to paint the picture of my mood. I am dripping sweat and livid. I went to the back seat to look for the 12th time, and the key was in the cup holder in the back seat. For the life of me, I cannot figure out why I would put the key in the cup holder in the back seat of a car. I do not recall ever putting it there. The only logical explanation is that it was my wife, Jill’s, fault.
I thought that would be the end of my senior moment for the day. I went to the golf course to hit a few balls and play 9 holes, as I am trying to be less embarrassing on the course. I lost my sunglasses. I had them at Home Depot, but they were nowhere to be found. I went back to my car three times, checked my locker, my backpack, the bathroom where I put on sunscreen, the gym where I stretched, lost and found… NOTHING. Impossible to blame my wife for this, as she had not been with me for two hours. I tried, but it would be a stretch for my creativity to find her to blame. After all the searching, the glasses were in my backpack under my computer. Within a one-hour period, I spent over 40 minutes looking for a key and sunglasses. What in the hell is wrong with me? Don’t answer that, it was a rhetorical question. I am fine, but clearly my memory, not so much. Jill, please don’t hide my stuff. It is frustrating.
Quick Bites
Stocks remain untouchable and produced another positive week despite mixed data and a government shutdown. Friday morning, stocks rallied but limped into the close with some tech stocks falling (Palantir, Tesla, Nvidia). Clearly, history suggests these shutdowns are short-lived, and the market is looking through it. On the week, the S&P was +1.1%, Nasdaq+1.3% and the Russell+2%. YTD, the S&P is +14.2%, Nasdaq +18.0% and the Russell 2000 +11.2%. US tech stocks now account for a record 56% of the US stock market cap, while defense stocks make up 16%, an all-time low. Even though so many signs are pointing to a sharply over-valued stock market, nothing seems to derail the rally. Despite weaker-than-expected services data on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield was +3bp to 4.12% and the 30-year was +2bps to 4.71%. Bitcoin rallied 12% on the week and is just under the all-time high of $124k and is now +31% YTD.
YTD hedge fund performance is outlined in this Bloomberg article. Bridgewater Associates’ flagship macro fund climbed 26.4% in the first nine months of this year as tariff-fueled market uncertainty boosted the firm and its peers. The hedge fund is on track for its biggest gain since 2010. Hedge funds overall have posted strong gains this year, aided by surging US shares and volatility in bond and currency markets spurred by President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
OpenAI just raised $6.5bn at a $500bn valuation, and I believe it was the fastest company to reach $500bn, as it took just under 10 years. Microsoft was the first company to reach a $500bn valuation, but it took over 20 years. Meta took 13 years, Amazon 23 years, Tesla 17 years, Apple 36 years, Nvidia 28 years. I did not account for inflation, but you get the idea. I also need to point out that there is a private market discount on OpenAI and many believe it will soon go public at a $1 trillion valuation. Coincidentally, Elon Musk became the first person worth $500 billion right around the same time as OpenAI. Musk’s net worth would make him as large as the 19th public company in the world on a market capitalization basis (just above Netflix at $493bn). On the wealth front, the top 1% reached a record net worth of $52 trillion by adding $5 trillion in the 2nd quarter. The divide between rich and poor is massive.
I have consistently commented that few kids should attend a traditional four-year college or university given the cost, debt burden, and lack of job availability. I wrote about this even before AI, and now I am even more adamant. This WSJ article, “Student-Loan Debt Is Strangling Gen X,” only furthers my thoughts. Free-flowing student loans promised upward mobility. Instead, they left the ‘forgotten generation’ with a mountain of debt and regret; ‘I’m going to be working until the day I die.’ Gen X is barreling toward retirement with an excruciating student-loan burden. The six million-plus borrowers aged 50 to 61 have the highest average balance of any age group, at $47,857, according to Federal Student Aid data. Now, as parents and grandparents, they are passing along a skepticism toward higher education and its hefty price tag. I am a big fan of trade schools or being an entrepreneur with the money saved from college. The CEO of Ford was on a panel about college, and he talked about his son who worked last summer as a mechanic. “Dad, I really like this work. I don’t know why I need to go to college.” Farley said he and his wife looked at each other and wondered, “Should we be debating this?” It’s something that’s happening in a lot of American households, he noted. “It should be a debate.”
Politics
Trump touts shutdown as ‘unprecedented opportunity’ to cut more Democratic priorities
Trump said he will meet with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, a Project 2025 author, to discuss cutting what he called “Democrat Agencies.” This article outlines two key dates (Oct 10th-federal worker payday and Oct 15-military payday) as dates to watch.
The USA is running $2 trillion deficits and has $37.6 trillion in debt. Federal interest expense has eclipsed defense spending. Illegal immigrants should not get healthcare for free.
The shutdown meant no jobs report. Here’s what it would have said about the economy
Trump says American flag burners will be ‘immediately arrested’ under executive order
Although I get upset at burning the flag, I am not convinced Trump should have you arrested for doing it. Something called the First Amendment.
Sinaloa cartel leader admits to CNN that Trump’s border crackdown is stiffling criminal operations
ICE Agents Ambushed In Chicago As Trump Deploys National Guard
Judge temporarily blocks Trump’s National Guard deployment in Portland
Most Voters Think America’s Divisions Cannot Be Overcome, Poll Says
I have written extensively about the biased media. This Gallop chart is telling.
Alabama man files lawsuit against immigration authorities after citizen’s repeat arrests in raids
Lutnick suggests Epstein gave up the tapes in return for a reduced sentence. It would not surprise me. I believe Epstein recorded his “friends” in compromising positions with underage girls and blackmailed them. The fact that the tapes are nowhere to be found is astonishing. Remember, Leon Black paid Epstein a total of $170mm+ (cash and loan not repaid) for trust and accounting services to Epstein, who was not a college graduate, not a CPA, and not a trust & estates lawyer. Are you kidding me? I have numerous friends who are billionaires. None has given me $170mm despite my pleas to do so.
Lawmaker reveals how Des Moines schools chief registered to vote despite illegal status
I am adamantly opposed to illegal aliens voting in elections.
Trump Admin Puts $18BN In NYC Infrastructure Projects On Hold Due To Shutdown
Mamdani Says He Would Phase Out N.Y.C. Gifted Program for Early Grades
Horrible idea. NYC has some amazing gifted and talented programs. These kids will not be challenged in a regular school. Why push the smartest down? Find ways to lift others rather than stifling the education of the gifted. I am constantly asked about Mamdani’s impact on Florida real estate. I do not think it will have a massive impact. I feel more people will leave NYC for the suburbs than move to Florida.
Schweizer Exposes Foreign-Linked Cash Funneled Into NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s Campaign
According to Schweizer, 78% of Mamdani’s funders are NOT New Yorkers, and include radical funders tied to the 1993 WTC bombing, a New Mexico school shooting plot, Hezbollah/Iran propaganda machines, and more.
Boston Mayor’s Blowout Victory Jolts CEOs Seeking New Direction
Wu is running unopposed in the Nov. 4 general election and is burnishing plans to temporarily raise commercial property taxes and defend affordability and climate requirements on real estate development. Business leaders are concerned that Wu’s second term will lead to policies that hurt employers, and are preparing for her to push harder for policies they believe will have negative impacts, including increased taxes and regulations. Wu is a progressive mayor. One reader who develops R/E in New Hampshire called Wu the best thing that ever happened to R/E in New Hampshire.
Chinese Scientists Simulate First ‘Triple-Nuke-Strike’ in Lab
Chinese scientists simulated triple nuke detonations in lab, finding multi-pulse strikes increase crater size, cratering efficiency versus single blasts.
Middle East
Netanyahu hopes to announce the release of all hostages from Gaza ‘in the coming days’
Israeli strikes kill 20 Palestinians hours after Trump urges Israel to ‘stop bombing Gaza’
Germany nabs 3 suspected Hamas operatives for planning to kill Israelis, local Jews
Six minutes that brought terror to Britain’s Jews
Sadly, one of the patrons killed was accidentally shot by police. Hamas unleashed global hate on Jews post the October 7th attack.
Hundreds Of Thousands Turn Out At Pro-Palestinian Marches In Europe
Many American Jews sharply critical of Israel on Gaza, Post poll finds
Other Headlines
Tom Lee sees S&P 500 topping 7,000 by year-end, says don’t be fooled by shutdown calamity talk
Goldman boss David Solomon warns of a stock market drawdown: ‘People won’t feel good’
Beef prices hit record highs as nationwide cattle inventory drops to lowest level in 70 years
Ground beef prices were up 12.8% on a year-over-year basis in August, while beef roasts were up 13.6%, and steak prices were 16.6% higher. Those inflation figures are well above the 3.2% year-over-year rise in all food categories, as well as the 5.4% rise in meat prices from last year.
The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing “Infinite Money Glitch”
The article is a must-read for anyone invested heavily into the AI space. It definitely brings up some questions, but those uber bulls don’t agree with the article.
Jeff Bezos says AI is in an industrial bubble but society will get ‘gigantic’ benefits from the tech
Google reveals ‘home AI’ that can see if your kids stay up past bedtime & even fix dishwasher
Perplexity AI rolls out Comet browser for free worldwide
I use Perplexity AI 30 times a week now. Although not perfect, it helps me fact-check info and is very quick with math equations.
OpenAI’s Sora 2 Generates Realistic Videos of People Shoplifting
Disney’s image tanks among Republicans, Democrats after Jimmy Kimmel controversy
Ultra-wealthy millennials and Gen Zers to displace baby boomers by 2040
Interesting data on those worth $30mm or more.
At 15, he waited tables at chain restaurant Friendly’s—22 years later, he bought the whole company
I love these stories. It is what makes America great.
Illegal immigrant tied to 17 rapes and deported 8 times, faces reinstated charges
I am not a fan of Diddy or whatever the hell is name is today. What he did is terrible and his treatment of women is disgusting. He was so confident, that he booked speaking engagements for next week before sentencing. I wanted him to get more than 50 months. I am not a fan. What impact will this weak sentence have on the willingness of future victims to come forward?
Harvard hires drag queen named ‘LaWhore Vagistan’ as visiting professor
So many universities have become a joke when you look at the majors and classes offered. Harvard now has a class on “Ru Paul’s Drag Race.” Here is your teacher for $100k a year at an Ivy League school. “My name is LaWhore Vagistan, my preferred pronouns are “she” or “aunty.” I chose ‘LaWhore’ because my family traces its origins to Pakistan: Lahore is an important city in Pakistan, and well, I’m a bit of a w*ore,” the drag queen said.
Bari Weiss to lead CBS News as part of major Paramount Skydance shakeup
She went from WSJ writer to NYTimes, quit publicly, founded The Free Press, sold it for around $150mm and will now lead CBS news. AMAZING.
Elon Musk is telling his followers to cancel Netflix subscriptions
2 regional Delta jets collide at LaGuardia airport with a wing slamming into a cockpit window
DoorDash unleashes fleet of delivery bots, called Dots, onto streets of Phoenix
Young singles are giving up on dating for this startling reason
Dating is too expensive.
Health
World’s oldest woman lived to 117 thanks to 6 healthy aging secrets
New, highly transmissible COVID-19 strain fueling wave of infections across US
Real Estate
A Home Sells for Nearly $67 Million in One of the Hamptons’ Priciest Deals of the Year. Known as Dune House, the roughly 110-year-old home came on the market for $79.5 million in April. The seller was a limited liability company linked to the late Polly Bruckmann, wife of the investment banker Donald Bruckmann. The deal follows the $31.5 million sale of a circa-1970s home in East Hampton village earlier this month. Sales volume in the Hamptons hit a 14-year low in early 2023 amid tight inventory and rising mortgage rates, but has since started recovering, according to a Douglas Elliman report by appraiser Jonathan Miller. In the second quarter, there were 26 home sales at or above $10 million, up from 22 in the same period in 2024 and just six in 2023, according to Miller.
The Bruckmann sale still pales in comparison to the Hamptons’ most expensive home sale to date: a 2014 deal in East Hampton for $137 million.
This WSJ article is entitled, “A Once Unstoppable Luxury Housing Market Is Starting to Crack,” and I agree that in spots, I am seeing weakness. Luxury homeowners who kept buying and selling real estate even as the overall housing market contracted in recent years are slowing their roll. The number of luxury-home sales nationwide dropped 0.7% during the three months ended Aug. 31, compared with the same period last year, according to data from real-estate brokerage Redfin, which said luxury sales nationwide dropped to the lowest level for that period since it began tracking the market in 2013. Price growth also slowed. During the three months ended Aug. 31, the median sale price for luxury properties—defined as the top 5% of the market—increased 3.9% year over year to $1.25 million, according to Redfin. But that is down from a 6.1% year-over-year price jump for the three months ended Aug. 31, 2024. “Buyers are being cautious about their investments,” said Kim Bedwell of Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International Realty in Dallas, who said there are more $5 million-plus homes on the market in the city’s affluent suburbs than she has seen in a while. Despite the national drop in luxury sales, for example, luxury home sales have increased in markets such as Indianapolis, Ind., where sales rose 19.1% year over year, and Fort Worth, where sales were up 14% year over year. Although the median luxury sale price rose 9.8% year over year to $4.2 million during the three months ended Aug. 31, sales dropped 19.4% year over year, Redfin data show. There are pockets of strength and weakness in the luxury market. Be sure to work with a good agent to help you through the process.
In LA’s ultra-luxury housing market, the bigger the mansion, the bigger the markdown. Recent sales and listings show marquee properties once priced like art pieces are being slashed by tens of millions of dollars, as noted by Mansion Global. Jennifer Lopez and her now-estranged husband, Ben Affleck, for instance, bought a sprawling Beverly Hills estate for around $61 million in 2023. Within a year, amid their split, the couple put the property back on the market at $68 million. It didn’t move. By this fall, the ask had been trimmed to $52 million — a $16 million haircut in barely over a year. They aren’t alone. Kanye West bought an oceanfront Malibu house designed by Japanese architect Tadao Ando and listed it for $53 million in 2024. It sold for $21 million, a nearly 60% discount. Milwaukee Brewers minority owner Robert Beyer once priced his Brentwood estate at $100 million. By September, it finally sold for $44 million, more than 40% off. Clearly, there is some weakness at the high end. I also of the opinion that the initial asking prices in many instances was not realistic.
According to a new analysis from Realtor.com, the threshold for entering the top 10% of US home listings has crept up to nearly $1.3 million, leaving $1 million properties stuck in the middle of the pack. In 2016, it took less than $800,000 to qualify for the same tier, and $1 million would have landed a buyer in the top 5%. Today, it would take closer to $2 million to achieve that distinction. The report notes that inflation in luxury pricing has been dramatic. A home that carried “luxury” cachet at $1 million nine years ago would now command about $1.6 million. At the extreme end, the top 1% of listings nationwide start around $5.4 million. When you factor in the price increases, higher rates, higher insurance costs, and higher maintenance costs, too many homes are unaffordable.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #824 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
