Four Twenty Five-Jean Georges Review
7-13-25
My last note was entitled, “Priced out of Paradise,” about the absurdity of the Hamptons. To be fair, readers pointed out other fancy hotspots are no different (Aspen, Nantucket, Jackson Hole, Yellowstone Club, South of France) are all overpriced. A big contributor sent me this article that suggests many US elite have moved on from the Hamptons. I am sure many have gone elsewhere, but crowds and prices suggest many are here. Just Thursday night, we tried to go to the Greek Orthodox Church Fair for a fun event. It is 3.2 miles from the house in Southampton. After 42 minutes, we turned around, as the traffic was so bad, we could not move. It was my 800th Rosen Report. I received hundreds of notes about my 800th newsletter. Thank you for your support and please continue to email me with feedback and story ideas. The most opened links were the Naval pilot video of the UFO and their reaction and the closing technique to nail your job interview.
I had some free time the other night and decided to get a last-minute Broadway show ticket for “The Book of Mormon.” The play is a Broadway musical satire about two Mormon missionaries sent to Uganda. The musical, created by Trey Parker and Matt Stone (of South Park fame) and Robert Lopez (of Avenue Q and Frozen), premiered on Broadway in 2011. It is funny, albeit incredibly silly (think of South Park). I don’t think the show is for everyone, but I had a handful of laugh out loud moments despite having seen it previously. Although I am not convinced, I will ever live in NYC again, I will admit that being here for a few days is enjoyable. With all the restaurants, shops, museums, music and shows, there is always something fun to do.
Markets
S&P 500 Concentration in Chart
Top States for Business
Foreign Crime Rates in Germany
Sports Franchise Prices
Condo Prices Falling
Mamdani’s Rent Rules and the Impact
Unsold Homes Surge Nationwide
Picture of the Day-Global Rates
Treasury yields are selling off in many countries simultaneously as outlined in the chart below. JGBs in white, German bunds in blue, French oats in orange, UK gilts in yellow US Treasuries in purple. All moving higher together. Debts and deficits matter around the world. Clearly there is aversion to duration with highly indebted countries. Germany has ratcheted up spending. The US deficits are running $2 trillion/year with no end in sight. I just thought this was an interesting chart of 30-year bonds. I received from my friend, Peter Boockvar.
Four Twenty Five-Jean-Georges Restaurant
Refined is the best word to describe everything about Four Twenty Five. The ambiance, bar, dining room, decor, service and food are all polished. The two-story stunner is on 55th and Park in the renovated office building that houses Citadel’s NYC office. Rents in the building have gone for over $200/ft for office space.
The moment you step into the restaurant, you are impressed. The bar is beautiful, and behind it is a large stairwell that takes you up to the impressive dining room with a glass wall to an open kitchen and massive ceiling heights.
Jean Georges never disappoints from a food perspective and starts off with fresh baked bread and butter. The sourdough was delicious. We shared a beet salad and despite not being a beet fan, I devoured it. The service was snappy and professional, even if I am not the biggest fan of the plum-colored uniforms. We decided to split the gruyere cheeseburger served with crispy onions as another appetizer. The burger was cooked to perfection and everything down to the bun was divine. It is not the kind of burger by a steak restaurant, but more sophisticated.
For our entrees, we each ordered fish. Rob (a longtime friend and colleague) had the Faroe Island salmon served with squash blossoms and lemon glazed summer squash. Again, the presentation was like a work of art. If there is anything I would like to improve in my cooking, it would be presentation, and I could surely take a class from Jean Georges. I had the steamed black bass over wild mushrooms and spiced broth. The sesame crusted bass was both tasty and beautiful. The sauce had a little kick to it which I enjoyed. The portions were good, as far too often these fancy restaurants give you tiny portions.
Let me be clear, Four Twenty Five does it right across the board and it comes at a steep price… but it is worth every penny. The restaurant is open for breakfast and lunch during the week and dinner every night. You won’t go wrong, and you will find everything that meets your lofty expectations including the fact that the dining room allows for conversation without screaming. I could see this being a power spot for any meal or drinks. In the good old days, it was the Four Seasons Restaurant for the power meal, and think, Four Twenty Five can get some of the big shot business.
Food-8.9
Ambiance-9.4
Service-9.3
Price-Very Expensive
Quick Bites
Despite negative tariff headlines from Trump, stocks hit fresh highs for the S&P and Nasdaq as well as for Bitcoin. However, Friday, markets pulled back slightly due to the larger than expected Canaian tariffs (outlined in tariff section). On the week, the S&P and Nasdaq were down slightly. Treasury yields are a bit higher over the past 10 days with the 10-year at 4.42% and the 30-year at 4.96%, partially on new tariff concerns. Thirty-year mortgages are approximately 6.8% on Mortgage Daily News, +15 bps from last week’s levels but nearly 28bps lower than May highs. Bitcoin hit new highs and is now 118k or +26% YTD as more companies are adding it to corporate treasuries and the likelihood of pro-crypto legislation. It was 75k on April 9th. Earnings season is coming, and expectations are for 4.8% earnings growth according to the WSJ, which is down from 13% from the 1st quarter.
I am a big fan of Torsten Slok’s “The Daily Spark.” A recent one had the concentration of the S&P 500. The concentration in the S&P 500 has returned to extreme levels, with the top 10 companies accounting for 40% of the index’s market capitalization and a record-high share of earnings, see chart below.
The extreme index concentration in tech is obviously not good for investors seeking to diversify their investments across 500 different companies. Anyone investing in the S&P 500 index today is basically making a bet on the Magnificent 7 stocks propelling even higher.
CNBC ranks America’s top state for business and North Carolina won in 2025. North Carolina’s biggest strengths are in the categories of Economy, Workforce, and Business Friendliness. But federal budget cuts, tariffs and the recovery from Hurricane Helene could threaten its dominance. Massachusetts is 2025′s Most Improved State. Alaska finishes last. Texas is #2 and Florida is #3. California and NY are #22 and #23 respectively. There are many reasons people have moved since the pandemic. Harsh COVID lockdowns, cost of living, taxes, crime/safety, woke policies, lack of a business friendly environment, and more. If you are starting a business or want to build one, why would you do it in a state that is not business friendly? Come to Florida. It is ranked #6 overall by US News. The full rankings can be found here.
I am fully supportive of LEGAL immigration. After all, my family are all immigrants from Eastern Europe. This article, “Gov't Report Exposes Astronomical Crime-Rates For Young Foreigners Compared To German Youth,” highlights the crime rates of immigrants who entered Germany relative to native Germans. The TBVZ ratio shows the total number of identified suspects over the age of eight and is calculated per 100,000 inhabitants per population group. It examines all crimes except for immigration law violations, and the data presents a concerning trend. For German suspects across all age groups, the TVBZ is 1,878. In contrast, Syrian suspects have a TVBZ of 8,236, and Afghan suspects are at 8,753 — more than four times higher. Algerian youth feature a TVBZ rate that is a tremendous 56 times higher than Germans. For Moroccans, it is 19 times higher.
The value of professional sports teams has exploded in the past 25 years. The Lakers just sold for $10bn and the Celtics for $6.1bn. I thought this CNBC article was interesting on the subject. CNBC’s Most Valuable Sports Empires 2025: Here’s how the top 20 empires in the world stack up.
Tariffs
Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada starting Aug. 1, warns of higher levies if Ottawa retaliates
Trump cited the flow of Fentanyl as the reason for the tariffs. Approximately 1% of the drug coming into the US is from the Northern border. I have not agreed with the way Trump has rolled out his tariff policy and this is another example. However, here was a large drug lab uncovered in Canada late last year.
Trump announces 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, starting Aug. 1
Trump announces 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro trial, ‘unfair’ trade
Copper now costs way more in the U.S. than elsewhere. This could hit its economy hard
Trump threatens to impose up to 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals ‘very soon’
Won’t go into effect for 18 months. Could you imagine the impact on families if this happened? It would crush Americans.
US, India in Talks on Trade Deal That May Cut Tariff Below 20%
Prices are now starting to rise because of tariffs. Economists say this is just the beginning
I agree that we may be in for a rougher 2nd half of 2025 IF the tariffs stick. Now that Trump has raised tariff levels again on various countries and placed 50% on copper, I struggle to see how this will not adversely impact inflation and earnings. Unless Trump caves (TACO), I can see challenges ahead.
Politics
Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge
With government red ink swelling throughout the year, last month saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May. That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago. The chart below is great and would like to see it coupled with less spending to make a debt in our massive budget deficits.
Trump calls on Fed to cut rate by 'at least' 3 percentage points
This is just stupid. With Trump’s new tariffs, they should not cut rates now.
Zohran Mamdani leads general election poll for NYC mayor
If the election were today, Mamdani would win in my opinion. For Adams to have a chance, these things need to take place: Cuomo and Sliwa need to step away, Ackman needs to raise big dollars to back Adams, and the 23% turnout from 2021 needs to be far higher. There are 750k Muslims in NYC and no voter ID requirements. In 2021, 1.15mm voted out of 4.9mm registered voters. If this antisemitic idiot wins and you did not vote, don’t call me to complain. Check out comments made by Mamdani’s father who clearly taught his son to the art of antisemitism. “Suicide bombing needs to be understood as a feature of modern political violence rather than stigmatized as a mark of barbarism,” the elder Mamdani wrote in his 2004 book “Good Muslim, Bad Muslim: America, the Cold War, and the Roots of Terror.”
NYC is not the same city I lived in for decades. IF this clown show wins as mayor, the city will deteriorate further with wealthy people including many Jews migrating to safer cities. Check out this article which suggests that inquiries by wealthy New Yorkers looking into Florida properties has jumped 50% after the Democratic primary. Mamdani has preached Jew hate, made fun of Jews, lied about his own ethnicity, clearly has an issue with white people, yet is the leading candidate for mayor for the most important city in the country and arguably the world. Ironically, the city was built on capitalism and gave me the opportunity to build multiple businesses and wealth for me and many of my colleagues. If Mamdani wins, in four years’ time, the new mayor will be governing from the right. I spoke with a large R/E owner from NYC and he is now relocating to South Florida given the rise of Jew hate and the fact that Mamdani has a serious chance of winning. He is not the only wealthy person who feels this way.
Jewish Democrats in Congress on edge after Zohran Mamdani’s NYC primary win: ‘Huge problem’
NYC Jewish pols urged to join ‘Jews for Zohran’ Mamdani and back Israel-bashing nominee for mayor
Polls suggest that 20% of Jews voted for an antisemite. What is wrong with people?
Dimon Blasts ‘Idiots’ in Democratic Party Focused on Ideology
Dimon said the Democratic Party went too far in its focus on diversity, equity and inclusion, prioritizing ideology over practical solutions. “I have a lot of friends who are Democrats, and they’re idiots. “I always say they have big hearts and little brains. They do not understand how the real-world works. Almost every single policy rolled out failed.”
Virginia AG Reveals Shocking Consequences of Democrats’ Soft-on-Crime Policies
Over 9,600 inmates were released early in fiscal year 2023 alone, with roughly 50% being rearrested—resulting in more than 4,500 new victims of crime.
Democrat bill would export Seattle's failed homelessness policies to rest of US
Awful idea.
Jerome Powell ‘considering resigning’ as pressure grows over lavish $2.5B HQ
Jeffrey Epstein Had 1,000+ Victims
I questioned the findings from the DOJ and FBI in my last report. Sorry folks, this is a MASSIVE cover up and we should know the truth. Kash Patel was singing a different tune in 2023 when he discussed the list that now mysteriously does not exist. In February 2025, Patel said the list is not disclosed “because of who is on that list.” Dershowitz claims he has seen the Epstein files. Now there is no list? Wired Magazine ran an analysis on the DOJ released “raw” 11 hours of footage and the findings suggest there were modifications done with Adobe. Although nothing is conclusive, it just adds to the uncertainty around the findings. Dan Bongino is considering resigning over the Epstein situation and had a blow up with AG Bondi over it.
Secret Service suspended six personnel without pay following Trump assassination attempt
Middle East
Israel Destroys Hezbollah’s Terrorist Buildup in ‘Rare’ Southern Lebanon Raids
Hamas rejects latest cease-fire proposal in Qatar, insists on IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip
80 Years Later, Global Jewish Population Still Trails Pre-Holocaust Levels
Welcome to the new world. Congrats to Hamas for unleashing the global hate of Jews. Do you think antisemitic politicians like Mamdani help or hurt the Jews? Watch the video. Jews have done more for the world than any other group of people on a population adjusted basis. .2% of the global population and 22% of Nobel Prize winners. Leaders in virtually every field (medicine, law, science, politics, finance, entertainment, academia, and many others), despite such a limited representation in the population. Deport the Jew haters. If this were done against any other minority group, there would be consequences. Not against the Jews. Could you imagine if someone were doing this at JFK against Blacks, Hispanics, LGBTQ? I want harsher hate crime laws. Threatening to kill Jews is a hate crime.
Iranian fatwa crowdfunding effort claims to have raised $40M for bounty on President Trump’s head
Watchdog backs Rubio’s sanctions on UN official over ‘shameful efforts’ targeting US, Israel
Other Headlines
A $500 billion wall of money will sweep the stock market higher in the second half, says JPMorgan
The article suggests retail investors will continue to put hundreds of billions to work in equities, driving stocks higher.
Amazon suffers huge Prime Day sales plunge as families hang onto cash amid recession fears
Pentagon to become largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials; shares surge 60%
I’m just surprised that Pelosi and her friends in Congress did not buy the stock and call options on MP Materials last week.
Delta shares jump 12% after airline reinstates 2025 profit outlook as CEO says bookings stabilized
Levi Strauss raises sales guidance, says it will absorb some tariff costs for now
Meta Poached Apple’s Pang With Pay Package Over $200 Million
Goldman Sachs is piloting its first autonomous coder in major AI milestone for Wall Street
Serial NYC shoplifter waltzes free despite staggering 254 arrests
Think Work-Life Balance Is Overrated? You’re Hired!
I don’t understand these young people who have no work-ethic. I stress being early, adding value, working late when needed and taking pride in your work.
'Big beautiful bill' changes the tax code on charitable giving: Here's what to know
Charitable giving was $590bn in 2024.
Remember, call Kevin Lang at Lang Insurance (866) 964-4434 for your property and casualty coverage. Virtually every reader who calls him thanks me. He saved me a lot of money. He focuses on higher end coverage.
A classified 'UFO' recording has been released – and it is concerning US intelligence
I appreciate Ackman for being vocal on many political issues, especially antisemitism on college campuses including his alma matter, Harvard. I also like what he is doing in speaking out against the awful candidate, Mamdani in NYC. However, Ackman is being ROASTED for playing in a professional tennis tournament at 59 years old and I agree that it was in bad form. Ackman should NEVER have been allowed to compete. Cheapens tennis.
Health
10 least healthy fast food chains revealed — here’s where your guilty pleasure falls
Everyone should consult with your doctor about a colonoscopy. My mother died of complications from colon cancer. I have had 7 colonoscopies and am due for another one. The prep is AWFUL. The drink tastes like chalk. I went to the pills and found it much easier.
The American diet is being blamed for a worrying rise in colon cancer
Nearly 53,000 Americans expected to die from colorectal cancer this year. Obesity plays a huge role as well as smoking, drinking alcohol, and a Western-style diet. 43% of Americans are obese and 31% are overweight.
Real Estate
Condo prices across the US are plummeting — with some areas seeing values sink by a staggering one-third in just a year. The average condo sale price in the US fell 2.2% ear over year to $354,100 in May, a new report shows — making it the second largest drop in records dating back to 2012. The biggest condo price drops are hitting Florida and Texas. In May, Deltona, Florida saw prices fall over 32% year-over-year — the steepest decline nationwide. Crestview, Florida (down 32%), Houston, Texas (down 23%), Tampa, Florida (down 19%), and Oakland, California (down 20%) also faced sharp drops. Seven of the top ten metros with the largest price declines were in Florida, two in Texas. Sellers in parts of Florida have had to drop prices below $10,000. Sales are sliding just as fast. Markets like Dallas, Palm Bay, Port St. Lucie, and Orlando saw condo sales drop over 30% year-over-year, with Florida again dominating the list of hardest-hit areas. Condo prices are falling for a number of reasons. One major factor is that the market is flooded. There are 80% more condo sellers than buyers. Many owners are racing to offload properties due to soaring HOA fees, skyrocketing insurance costs, and in some cases, hefty special assessments imposed by homeowners’ associations. In Florida, there are buildings going for $6,000 ft and others you can’t sell for $500/foot. The age of the building matters. Location matters. Amenities. Do not buy into an older building without having a strong understanding of the financial condition, where they stand relative to mandatory regulations, and how many units are for sale. There is one building near me with 30% of the units for sale and no one can sell. Proceed with caution. Lots of good info in the article.
I have written extensively about the absurdity of the 2019 NYC rent laws that have decimated landlords, taken inventory out of the market, and hurt tenants who cannot get their units fixed due to the idiocy of the new laws. This article outlying the rage from NYC landlords towards Mamdani’s moronic plan. The 2019 rent laws that prevent landlords from amortizing improvements by increasing rent has resulted in thousands of units remaining vacant, an unwillingness by landlords to fix problems, and tenants living in squalor. There are unintended consequences, and if Mamdani gets no rent increases for 1mm rent stabilized units (44% of NYC inventory), disaster will ensue. Who will ever build a rent stabilized unit? Who will ever repair problems? Banks will be overrun with landlords giving back the keys. I never like politicians, to me they are all degrees of bad. Mamdani is among the worst. If he hates capitalism and wealth, he should leave the US for Venezuela and see how he likes living there.
Inventory of homes in the US is building in more markets and there is data in this Newsweek article. In June, the total number of unsold homes in the country was up 20% compared with a year earlier, according to Realtor.com, while inventory was up by 28.9% year-over-year. In the same month, pending home sales were down 1.6% from June 2024. Even though the market did not by any standard perform well, prices continue inching up. In June, the median list price of a typical U.S. home was $440,950, up 0.2% since last year. In the four weeks ending July 6, pending sales in the nationwide market fell 3.5% from a year earlier.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #801 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
