Opening Comments
Pictures of the Day-NYC Crowds are Back
Garage Door Exorcism
Manchin & Carville on Election Results
$1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Passed
Quick Bites
Markets, Non-Farm Payrolls, Peloton Miss
Food Costs, Pizza Prices, Car Prices
$450k To Illegals Update, Steele Dossier
Students Attacking Staff, NYC Voter Turnout
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Data-Case Improvement Slowing
German Spike in Cases
Oxford Study on Genes and COVID
Biden Vaccine Mandate by Jan 4/Federal Court Blocked
SFO Vaccine Requirements for 5 Year Olds
Pfizer “Game Changer” Drug
Real Estate
My General Comments
Dustin Johnson Buys in Admiral’s Cove-$14mm Lots of Details
Jupiter/Hobe Sound/Discovery Update-Oh My!
Zillow Exiting Flipping Business-Sign Things are Slowing?
Housing Analyst, Ivy Zelman, Worried About Housing
Opening Comments
The last note received a lot of positive feedback and email traffic from Rosen Report readers. To follow up on the last piece, Ed Durr, a Republican truck driver, ended up being declared the winner defeating the state Senate president, Steve Sweeney. At the time of the last report on Wednesday, it was still too close to call. Durr spent $153 of his own money to defeat the longtime Democratic incumbent. However, on Saturday Steve Sweeney, claims to have “found” 12,000 votes and is yet to concede.
I am always an early riser, but with the fall time change, I wake up extra early and today, I was writing the Rosen Report at 445am.
The most popular link in the last report was the job interview questions by Bezos, which I enjoyed as well.
Pictures of the Day
I will be in NYC Monday and Tuesday for 36 hours doing due diligence on a company. Weather looks good, and I am looking forward to seeing the city as it gets its mojo back. A reader sent me a picture of Park Ave from 4pm on Friday, and it was crowded. This is far different than peak of COVID-19 when you could shoot a shotgun down the street and not hit anyone. Ill try to get something out Wednesday, but depends on my travel.
Park Avenue at 4:30pm on 11-5-21
5th Avenue at 4:30pm on 3-21-21
Garage Door Exorcism
I came home from the gym on Thursday, opened the garage door, and it would not close. It was acting strange, so rather than using the remote, I went to the wall and hit the button and the door closed. Or so I thought. I never wait to check if the door closes, so I just went into the house. It went down only to go back up, and of course, I did not realize it for a while. The garages have A/C, and I hate when I leave a door open letting out all the cool air. I went back and closed the garage again and the door would go down and then up and down over and over again. Sometimes, it would go down 99% and appear to close and then others it would go down 20% only to go back up. Initially, I thought something was blocking the door from closing, but that was not the case. Then, I was convinced I was being pranked. My vulgar mouth was in full bloom. Regardless of how many times or how hard I hit the garage door button on the wall or remote, I could not fully open or close the door. I decided to wait until the door is basically shut and then turn off the fuse at the fuse box. I would outsmart the system, but, that did not work either. The fuses do not control the garage door despite being labeled “garage door.”
The garage was possessed. I called the emergency number for the garage door company, left a message and continued to battle the possessed door for another 15 minutes. To be clear, I was adding no value, but was doing my best to overpower the system. My wife, Jill, saw a button flashing on a remote and I thought it meant to change the battery. That was not the case. Turns out, the button on the remote was partially stuck in the depressed mode which prevented the garage door from finished the task of fully opening or closing. It was a frustrating 20 minutes, but crisis averted. Next time, I will just unplug the garage door from the ceiling.
My resident expert and contractor for my house called me back as I left him a frantic message, and he was laughing at me, yet again. Son of a …. I cannot win. I may need to hire a full-time handyman to live with us to avoid all these embarrassing gaffes. Once I got the button “unstuck” from the remote, the door stopped acting like it was in a horror movie.
In a short separate event, I fixed something. My sliding glass door handle broke. I ordered a new one and actually installed it by myself. Generally, this would not be Rosen Report material, but given my legendary mechanical ineptitude, I felt it warranted a special mention
Manchin & Carville on Election Results
Commentary from Senator Manchin and Democratic Strategist, James Carville, was interesting regarding what happened in the elections last week. A lot of what you have been reading in the Rosen Report is outlined. My concerns about inflation, gas prices and over wokeness have turned off voters from the Progressive movement. "I just saw it to confirm that we have a divided country … I hope it's a wake-up call for all of us," Manchin said. "I'm concerned. I've been talking about our debt, I've been talking about inflation, [and] I've been talking about the [economic] fallout we may have [from the spending bills]." Democrats should pay more heed to the immediate needs of the American people, such as rising gas prices and infrastructure, according to Manchin. "Why don't we do more drilling and why don't we do more basically production in the United States? I'm not depending on OPEC. I'm not depending on other countries for energy anymore” Democratic strategist James Carville suggested during PBS NewsHour on Wednesday that progressives and "wokeness" were to blame for the recent Democratic election losses in Virginia. When asked how Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe lost to Republican Glenn Youngkin in a state that President Biden won by 10 points a year earlier, Carville replied, "What went wrong is stupid wokeness. Don’t just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Washington. I mean this ‘defund the police’ lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln’s name off of schools, people see that. And it really has a suppressive effect on all across the country on Democrats. Some of these people need to go to a woke detox center or something," Carville said. I feel strongly that these results were a vote against the Progressive movement. However, AOC does not agree with me. Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez blamed the Democratic loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial election on Terry McAuliffe failing to “energize a progressive base” through his “100% super moderated campaign.” She feels McAuliffe’s loss was because he was not Progressive enough. Here is a 27 second video of AOC speaking about it. AOC then riped James Carville for blaming the VA Governor loss on “wokeness.”
$1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Passes
The Biden Administration received a much-needed win by securing the votes to pass the Infrastructure Bill (228-206). I would like to see the new polls of Biden’s approval ratings post this win. The infrastructure bill had the support of 13 Republicans, but 6 Progressive Democrats did not approve the bill. “Tonight, we took a monumental step forward as a nation,” Biden said in a statement responding to the bill’s passage early Saturday. “Generations from now, people will look back and know this is when America won the economic competition for the 21st Century.”
I have been critical of the Biden Administration given I do not believe there had been enough accomplished and questioned much of his agenda and the polls agreed with me. However, this is a big win for Biden and Pelosi for a bill that had already passed in the Senate and now requires Biden’s signature. I was never opposed to this bill in principle, but my concerns were all the waste and non-infrastructure related matters which will be jammed through in the process. It is very hard to get the full details, but here are some frustrating things which were in previous iterations (not sure if they made the final bill): $10bn for a “Civilian Climate Corp,” $20bn to “Advance Racial Equity and Environmental Justice” and others which have nothing to do with infrastructure. Here is CNN’s take on the bill and here is Fox and here is Forbes so you can see all sides. I am yet to see the full details of the $1.2 trillion spending, which is concerning. I will outline what I have been able to cobble together from the dozen articles I read. This totals $544bn and the difference between this amount and $1.2 trillion is what is “normally” allocated to related projects over the years under this bill. I am sure there is plenty of waste and pork and woke causes. Also of note, governments (state and federal) have rarely come in on budget, and there are countless examples of massive cost over runs (Boston-Big Dig, NYC-East Side Access, Countless Federal Overruns…). I found major US government cost overruns dating back to 1817 for the Erie Canal and numerous other major projects. If the infrastrure money is wisely spent and refurbishes outdated bridges, tunnels, roads, railroads, powergrids, water supplies, airports…and does not end up being 3 times the stated, amount, I am in full support. I have no faith that will be the case. What do we get for $7.5bn spent on electric school buses in this plan? How many does that buy us (10,000, 50,000 or 100,000)? Details would be helpful. I don’t want to give credibility to a program if each bus will cost $700k while a regular school bus costs under $150k. Also, given the challenge of finding labor today, who is going to be doing the work and at what price? I may be coming out of retirement to become some form of construction worker.
$110bn for roads & bridges
$66bn for railroads
$65bn for power grid
$65bn for broadband
$55bn for water infrastructure
$47bn for cyber-security & climate change
$39bn for public transit
$25bn for airports
$21bn for the environment
$17bn for ports
$11bn for safety
$8bn for western water infrastructure
$7.5bn for electric vehicle charging stations
$7.5bn for electric school buses
Now the administration needs to focus on the Reconciliation Bill. Moderates demanded a CBO score to examine the likely effects of the proposed legislation. I understand that may take a couple of weeks and there is support to consider the bill the week of November 15th. From what I understand, Congress may pass a bill which will be sent to the Senate and changes will be made to send back to Congress. As discussed on the news, it seems as though Congress would be forced to accept the house changes in order to get something passed. Under the latest version of the Build Back Better legislation, the SALT cap would increase from $10,000 to $80,00 through 2030 before returning to $10,000 in 2031. Here is what is in the $1.85 trillion proposal as I understand it, and there are more details in this link. I listed it in order it by amount and took out the duplicate in the report.
$555 billion for clean energy and climate
$400bn for childcare & universal preschool
$200bn for child tax credit and earned income credit
$150bn for home care
$150bn for housing
$130bn for ACA credits
$100bn for immigration
$90bn for equity and other investments
$40bn for higher ed and workforce
$35bn for Medicare hearing coverage
What is Out of the Bill
Medicare dental and vision benefits
Free community college
Billionaires income tax
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks rallied to record levels on Friday after the October jobs report came in better than expected, boosting optimism about the economic recovery. A major development from Pfizer regarding its easy-to-administer Covid-19 pill fueled hope for a smooth reopening further, sending shares of airlines and cruise line operators soaring. The Dow rose 204 points, or nearly 0.6%, to 36,328. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 4,698 for its seventh straight positive day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq edged up 0.2% to 15,971. All three major averages reached their respective record closing highs.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 in October, beating the estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, a new pandemic low and better than expectations. Wages rose 0.4% for the month and were up 4.9% from a year ago. Leisure and hospitality led job creation, followed by professional and business services and manufacturing. This chart is incredibly impressive and far better than I would have thought possible in April of 2020. However, 4.6% unemployment and record prices on stocks, homes, cars as well as high commodity prices and wages suggests to me the incredible accommodation needs to slow sharply to prevent more inflation.
Peloton shares tumbled 35% Friday after the at-home fitness equipment maker slashed its annual sales forecast by as much as $1 billion. At least four Wall Street investment firms downgraded the stock following Peloton’s dismal fiscal first-quarter financial report released Thursday. Momentum is fading for its bikes and treadmill machines, and more consumers are heading back to gyms. Travel companies like Delta, Airbnb and Expedia pointed to clear signs of recovery in recent earnings reports. Stay-at-home stocks like Peloton, Zoom and Netflix sold off this week. Dr. Gottleib proclaimed new Pfizer drug marks the “End of the pandemic,” while on CNBC on Friday. It is bad to see a company miss, but the reasons behind it mean people are going back to the gym in my mind. I did not go to a public gym for almost 18 months and I enjoy working out. In the past month, I have gone no fewer than 5 times/week. If I had thought about it more, shorting companies like this would have made some sense. Since September 2019, the stock is up 120%, but it is down 40% in the past week.
Global food costs jumped last month, extending a march toward a record and piling more inflationary pressure on consumers and governments. A United Nations index tracking staples from wheat to vegetable oils climbed 3% to a fresh decade high in October, threatening even higher grocery bills for households that have already been strained by the pandemic. That could also add to central banks’ inflation worries and risks worsening global hunger that’s at a multiyear high. Bad weather hit harvests around the world this year, freight costs soared and labor shortages have roiled the food supply chain from farms to supermarkets. An energy crisis has also proved a headache, forcing vegetable greenhouses to go dark and causing a knock-on risk of bigger fertilizer bills for farmers. This Bloomberg article discusses milk and meat prices, which have increased significantly. I can only tell you that my grocery bills are far higher relative to pre-pandemic and more often what I am looking to buy is not in the store. On a similar note, cotton prices are up 50% YTD and will lead to higher clothing costs. Snarls in the global supply chain are making it more difficult for restaurants to find enough straws, iced coffee cups and takeout containers. What will this do to restaurant prices?
The price of pizza is soaring in the Big Apple thanks to a dyspeptic recipe of inflationary food costs, a global supply-chain crisis and national labor shortage. The sticker shock is hitting pizza-passionate Gothamites right in the gut. “It’s a little bit scary at times,” said Slone Elias, a customer at 2 Bros. Pizza on Eighth Avenue in Chelsea. “Eventually it’s going to reflect in rising food prices at every restaurant.” I am sorry, all these price increases are not transitory. Housing, cars, food, wages, commodities…
I thought this Bloomberg article was a good one and had especially impressive charts and graphs. The article is around prices, inventory, selling times… for autos. There are more charts in the link than included below.
Given I wrote a big section on this topic, I had to include this in Quick Bites, not Other Headlines. President Biden is claiming the reports of $450k payments to those separated at the border are “garbage” and “not true.” Well, the WSJ, ABC News and other confirmed that officials had considered payments. The ACLU responded to Biden's comments with a statement saying the president would be "abandoning a core campaign promise" if he doesn't make good on the payments. After the “garbage” and “not true” commentary, a White House Spokesperson said, President Biden is “perfectly comfortable” with his administration paying immigrant families to resolve lawsuits alleging they suffered trauma from being separated after illegally crossing the Mexico border. “Whether [the border crossing] was legal or illegal, and you lost your child,” Biden thundered. “You lost your child, it’s gone — you deserve some kind of compensation, no matter what the circumstance.
An indictment returned in federal court on Thursday casts doubt on the sources of a series of salacious and largely discredited reports about former President Donald Trump and Russia that the FBI ultimately used in support of a counterintelligence investigation into his 2016 campaign and associates. A Russia analyst who served as a central source for a dossier of opposition research material about Mr. Trump compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele was arrested and charged with lying to the FBI on Thursday, according to an indictment unsealed in Virginia federal court. He appeared before a judge on Thursday and was released on bond. Russian-born Igor Danchenko was charged with five counts of making false statements to officials of the FBI about the sources of the information he helped compile for Mr. Steele. I am not going to go deep on this subject given the length of the piece today, but all I can say is that based on what I read, it seems almost implausible that everything which happened around the Steele dossier could happen in the USA. Also, the media largely got this one wrong. Erik Wemple (Washington Post media critic) wrote, ”The indictment drives home what a rinky-dink operation was the dossier. A sham -- and *any* news org that attributed credibility to its ‘findings’ needs to go back and correct the record," Wemple added along with a link to a series of columns he previously wrote on the media's handling of the Steele dossier. The columns included criticism of CNN, MSNBC, Politico, Mother Jones and The New York Times, among other outlets. I understand being wrong, but in my opinion, news outlets need to cover the updated story given the new information. Covering a story 24/7 when it seemed bad for Trump is fine, but acting as though new information is not available which discredits the original story is weak. I would say the same thing when a news story does not fit Fox News or other right leaning media outlets. Multiple Pulitzer Prizes were awarded to the NYT and WAPO for coverage of this story a few years ago.
The Dr. William W. Henderson Inclusion School in Dorchester will be closed again Friday after a principal and another staff member were attacked by a student during dismissal Wednesday afternoon. When Boston Police arrived at the school, an officer found Upper Campus Principal Patricia Lampron unconscious on the ground being tended to by staff members. She was taken to a hospital for treatment of serious injuries. According to WBZ-TV I-Team sources, the 61-year-old principal suffered broken ribs and a head injury. A 16-year-old girl hit the principal. Who are her parents? What type of kid beats up the principal of the school as well as another staff member? She should serve time in juvenile detention and I hope charges are pressed. In another sad story, two teens have been charged with killing an Iowa Spanish teacher.
I have written extensively on my view that college tuition rates and starting salaries are making it less attractive attend a tradition 4-year-program. There is a WSJ Opinion piece in which the author ran the return on 30,000 different bachelor’s degree programs. The results show that 28% of bachelor’s degrees, weighted by enrollment, do not have a net positive return. More than a quarter of students are in programs that aren’t worth the cost. Though students often obsess over where they get in, their majors have the most sway over their future earnings. Programs in engineering, computer science, economics and nursing all yield a high return, often increasing their students’ net lifetime earnings by $500,000 or more. But a majority of programs in art, music, philosophy and psychology leave their average students financially worse off.
I wrote about low voter turnout in NYC in the past leading to the rise of DeBlasio. Although I feel the voters got it right this time with Adams as the new Mayor, the turnout is abysmal. Elections have consequences and 24% voter turnout is a joke. Less than a quarter of the registered voters in New York City decided who will be mayor, public advocate, comptroller and sit in every City Council seat come January. Turnout in New York City’s municipal elections continued its years-long flat line Tuesday with no more than 1.2 million votes cast — a turnout rate no better than 24 percent, an analysis of data from the Board of Elections shows.
Other Headlines
Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Exit Cedes Ground to Wall Street Rivals
100,450,000: More Than 100 Million Not in Labor Force for 14th Straight Month; No Job, Not Looking
Key Biden ally in Senate calls for abolishing filibuster to pass voting rights legislation
Rash of violence in Chicago's wealthy areas overlooked, have 'too much wealth': Lawmaker
Climate Change Protestors Confront Joe Manchin Driving Maserati: ‘We Want to Live!’
Manhattan DA convenes new grand jury in Trump Org. case to weigh potential charges
Andrew Cuomo court date delayed after prosecutor warns of 'defective' sex crime complaint
Harvey Milk: US Navy launches ship named for gay rights leader
The most shocking Holocaust item' was on auction. Auschwitz survivors are furious
Virus/Vaccine
Although the data continues to move in the right direction, case levels are dropping quite slowly. The 14-day change in cases was only -3% and you can see in the large chart that improvements have slowed sharply recently. Hospitalizations continue to improve and were -13%, while deaths fell 20% for the 2-week period. For cases and hospitalizations, we are now over 50% below the Delta peak levels, but for deaths, down 42% from the Delta peak. I took a quick glance at state cases rates to see if there was a direct link between colder temperatures and increased cases (more people inside) and could not find one. Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, New Hampshire, Maine all are heading in the right direction.
We are, once again, at the epicenter," WHO Europe director Hans Kluge told a press conference. He warned that according to "one reliable projection" the current trajectory would mean "another half a million Covid-19 deaths" by February. Alarm bells were ringing especially in Germany, the European Union's most populous country, where the number of new cases over the past 24 hours soared to almost 38,000 on Thursday . China is also seeing new lockdowns.
Scientists identified a specific gene that doubles the risk of respiratory failure from Covid-19 and may go some way to explaining why some ethnic groups are more susceptible to severe disease than others. Researchers from the University of Oxford found that a higher-risk version of the gene most likely prevents the cells lining airways and the lungs from responding to the virus properly. About 60% of people with South Asian ancestry carry this version of the gene, compared with 15% of people with European heritage, according to the study published Thursday.
This WSJ article outlines the new Biden administration mandate on vaccines and I fear it will lead to even more labor shortages. Many employers will have to ensure by early 2022 that their workers are vaccinated or tested weekly for Covid-19 under a set of new vaccine requirements by the Biden administration that will cover more than 80 million employees. The requirements released Thursday by the Labor Department implement a vaccine directive that President Biden announced in September. They take effect Jan. 4 and apply to employers with 100 or more employees. While the administration has said the requirements are necessary to curb the Covid-19 pandemic, they have drawn opposition from many Republicans. However, there is new news on this topic. A federal appeals court temporarily blocked the Biden administration's new vaccine rules that could apply to larger employers, certain health care workers and federal contractors. In the brief order, a three-judge panel on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals said that the petitioners in the case -- Republican-led states and private businesses -- "give cause to believe there are grave statutory and constitutional issues with the Mandate."
San Francisco will soon require children as young as 5 to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination to enter certain indoor public spaces like restaurants, entertainment venues and sporting events, public health officials said this week. The local mandate already requires children and adults over the age of 12 to show proof that they are vaccinated before entering those places. Now, city health officials are planning to extend the health order to children ages 5 to 11, the group newly eligible for the shot.
Pfizer said its Covid-19 pill, used with an HIV drug, cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in high-risk adults who’ve been exposed to the virus. It’s now the second antiviral pill behind Merck’s to demonstrate strong effectiveness for treating Covid at the first sign of illness. Pfizer said it plans to submit its data to the Food and Drug Administration “as soon as possible.” Former FDA Commissioner, Dr. Gottlieb, said, “The end of the pandemic is in sight. By Jan 4th, this pandemic may very well be over at least as it relates to the US.” Gottlieb is on the board of Pfizer.
Real Estate
I am hearing about bidding wars in NYC more frequently, even in co-ops. I asked the broker who sold my apartment in November of 2016 what it would be worth today, and he thought 20-25% below where I sold it. It was a full floor PH on Park Avenue which was redone meticulously, and the demand for PHs is high I am told. Compare this data point to homes in South Florida which are up 100-500% in that time period for high end product. If you talk about Palm Beach or Miami on choice water, you are at the higher end of the range I gave. Devin Kay told me of a Jupiter Island intra-coastal home which sold for $20mm in 1 day for full-asking price. Devin tells me on Jupiter Island, there have been more sales over $15mm in the past 18 months than the prior 5 years combined.
Two-time Majors champion golfer Dustin Johnson paid $14 million for a waterfront mansion in the Admiral’s Cove neighborhood of Jupiter. It was on .56 acres and approximately 10,000 sq. ft. in size. It sold in June of 2019 for $2.8mm and was clearly gut renovated at that time. Even if the contractor spent $3mm on renovations, it is up 250% in 2.5 years. For perspective, I believe this house in my community in Boca Raton would sell for over $23mm based on recent transactions. I have looked extensively in Admiral’s Cove. I believe it has some of the best amenities of any community in South Florida (45 holes of golf, massive marina, numerous restaurants, tennis, pickle ball, big gym, convenience store (amazing wine deals), security and many homes on the water.
On the topic of R/E in the Jupiter area, I have some general updates. This area will BOOM in my opinion and it remains far cheaper than Palm Beach, Miami or Boca despite being up sharply. There are a bunch of factors at play. There are 7 or 8 new major golf courses between Palm Beach Gardens and Hobe Sound with big developers over the next three years. You have Discovery building a new community up there. I have written extensively that Discovery Properties are in a class by themselves from a service, clientele and experience perspective. I am told there are 330 homesites for the Discovery project. There is already demand for over 600 homes. I was told the pricing for dirt was going to be $2-4mm as of about 18 months ago. Now I am told that the starting price of land is in the $5mm range and I do not believe they have started selling. Given building costs, it means homes should start in the very high single digit millions, but I presume most will be well over $10mm and there is far more demand than supply. Florida haters keep hating. When the alternative product is crime ridden, high taxes, cold weather and poor quality of life, Florida continues to bring in the wealth.
I am curious as to what went wrong for Zillow. Was it buying too aggressively? Was it the labor and materials shortages which made renovations challenging? Was it the market cooling off in some of their locations? The fact that they are offering the homes below what they paid and did renovations could be a signal of things slowing from a blistering pace. Zillow’s unexpected announcement in October that it was temporarily pausing its home-buying activities raised many analysts’ eyebrows. Now, the company is reportedly offloading thousands of homes at a discount. Some argue that more concerning trends could be on the way. The company’s Zillow Offers division is what’s known as an “iBuyer” — it purchases and sells homes directly to consumers, typically renovating them in between. Following a report in mid-October from Bloomberg, Zillow confirmed that its Zillow Offers division would not be signing any additional new contracts to purchase homes through the end of 2021. In explaining the move, Zillow said the company was facing a backlog of renovations and dealing with operational-capacity issues. Now, though, Bloomberg is reporting that the company is selling off roughly 7,000 homes, looking to claw back $2.8 billion in the process. A separate report from KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma found that two-thirds of the homes Zillow has listed for sale feature an asking price below what Zillow paid for the property, with the average discount being 4.5%.
Interesting article from the Real Deal about Ivy Zelman and her views on the hot housing market. I have said that I feel that many markets are not sustainable and are becoming unaffordable. A woman we know is moving from South Florida to Tennessee as she cannot afford anything down here. Everyone seems to be betting the house on a new home these days. Multibillion-dollar private equity firms. Joe Schmo house-flippers. Even savvy tech firms. Everyone except Ivy Zelman, that is. The analyst who called the top of the housing market in 2005 is once again waving a red flag. It’s beyond contrarian: She’s pretty much in a category of one. “The perception that housing is drastically undersupplied and that a strong demographic picture lies ahead is creating a false sense of security,’’ according to a report by Zelman’s firm entitled “Cradle to Grave.’’ “By our math, both single-family and multi-family production are already ahead of normalized demand and estimates of a housing deficit are grossly exaggerated.’’ Zelman said she recently spoke to a homebuilder in Boise, Idaho who is producing 2,000 homes a year. The builder said home prices are reaching unsustainable levels. “They said it was like a light switch, like the market just literally turned off,” said Zelman. Combine this with the near-certainty of rising mortgage rates and homeownership becomes even more unaffordable.