Holy GRAIL of Cancer Detection

7-30-22

Opening Comments

Today’s theme piece is important as it may save your life. Please take the time to read it carefully.

My son, Jack, and I drove from NYC to Marion, MA on Saturday morning, which should have taken 3:45. It too 5:45 minutes. From NYC to Stamford, CT was 1:45 minutes. I was in shock at the traffic which did not let up until New London, CT. A reader and good friend invited us to Nantucket for the night. I have never been there and am excited to experience it first hand.

• Mike Cembalest-Manchin-Schumer Bill Summary

• Holy GRAIL of Cancer Detection

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • Earnings

  • Recession

  • Misery Index Predicting Elections

• Other Headlines

• Virus/Vaccine

  • Data-Improvements

• Real Estate

  • General Comments

    • Boca Mandarin Oriental $2,000+/ft Condo Sales

    • Bezos Family Estate Miami

  • Mortgage Rates Fell Sharply

  • Idaho Boom/Bust

  • Other R/E Headlines

Mike Cembalest-Manchin-Schumer Bill Summary

• As usual, Cembalest does a great job of summarizing and explaining the facts and details. As a result, I am going to let you read his piece, which is far better than anything I could have done. He poses a lot of questions and is not convinced of the stated emissions declines related to the bill. I will say I believe this is a big win for Biden and he surely needed one. The bill will face opposition, and the passage of the $52bn semiconductor bill several hours prior to this bill announcement leaves Republicans fuming. Biden approves of the Manchin-Schumer Bill, assuming it gets through the House and Senate. I heard from both sides watching the news Sunday am and like usual, the Republicans think it is a disaster and the Democrats believe it is life-changing.

Holy GRAIL of Cancer Detection

I have an amazing ophthalmologist in Southampton, NY. His name is Dr. Peter Michalos. I always ask him about cutting edge medical advances during the exam. Dr. Michalos is an intellectually curious physician who is far more than an ophthalmologist and is basically omniscient on all things medical. He discussed two big ideas with me and today, I will be writing about the Galleri Blood Test for 50+ cancers today and the other breakthrough in an upcoming Rosen Report. Galleri is owned by Grail, hence the name on the report.

Early detection of cancer is the single biggest determinant of the ultimate outcome. I watched my mother die of complications from colon cancer and my step-father pass from brain cancer. Dr. Michalos was proudly telling me that he has had numerous patients find out about incredibly early stage cancers from this quick and easy test by Galleri, which saved their lives. The website is informative and highlights with two vials of blood they can detect 50+ types of cancer within 10 business days of receiving the specimen. 45 of the cancer types screened for in the test have no other recommended screening options today. It is remarkable that the test can detect cancers with a low false positive of <1%. When a cancer signal was detected, the test identified where in the body the cancer is located with 90% accuracy. The company has been live for end users for over a year, but completed clinical trials for years prior. Tens of thousands of tests have been completed for consumers and far more in trials. I believe the Galleri test is the only early detection multi-cancer test on the market today, but many others are in process of coming to market.

There is an article which was written about Grail/Galleri and the test. From the article which quotes Ofman, Chief Medical Officer of Grail: “Cancer is a disease of the genome. What this means is that cancer has specific genomic alterations — the DNA in the cancer cells carry cancer-specific signals. Tumors shed this DNA into the blood. We now know that these DNA fragments and their cancer-specific signals can be detected to identify cancer from a simple blood draw.”

In my case, Dr. Michalos gave me the box containing the paperwork, two vials for blood and the return box for FedEx. Quest draws the blood in minutes and sends the box back to Galleri overnight. The process could not have been easier. Insurance companies do not cover the cost of the Galleri test which would significantly reduce the cost of the care if a positive suspected cancer is found early. Please do not get me started on the absurdity of health insurance. I had to pay $949 for Galleri, but it covers everything (blood draw, shipping, lab work, results, customer service…).

My readers know about my customer service complaints and with Galleri I got someone on the phone quickly who spoke perfect English and was able to answer my questions. I let customer service know I was writing an article, and they were responsive and willing to give information to help my piece. This is the link to frequently asked questions.

From the website: The Galleri test is recommended for use in adults with an elevated risk for cancer, such as those aged 50 or older. The Galleri test does not detect all cancers and should be used in addition to routine cancer screening tests recommended by a healthcare provider. Galleri is intended to detect cancer signals and predict where in the body the cancer signal is located. Use of Galleri is not recommended in individuals who are pregnant, 21 years old or younger, or undergoing active cancer treatment.

I want to be clear that not all parties believe the technology is ready for prime time. I spoke with a handful of doctors who are excited about Liquid Biopsy technology, but want to see more data behind it. Given I am 52 and have a family history, I decided to move forward. I am sure that over time, the technology will continue to improve. To be balanced, this article is entitled, “Liquid biopsy: misplaced faith in early cancer detection?” It is from August 2021 and mentions Grail/Galleri. I just don’t see the downside in taking the test at this point, assuming you have the means to pay for it.

I sent my bloodwork into the lab on Monday, July 25th and am anxiously awaiting the results which I will share in an upcoming report. I hope many readers will take the test and receive “Cancer Signal NOT Detected.” I feel the new advances is testing, medicine and technology will help us live longer, healthier lives. Remember, early detection and treatment is the best way to get the desired outcome. I hope this Rosen Report can help save some lives. I have no affiliation with Galleri, but thought this could help my readers. If you want to wait for my results before moving forward, I should have them shortly.

Quick Bites

• Stocks climbed for a third consecutive session on Friday as investors digested strong tech earnings and looked past concerns about high inflation and a recessionary environment. All of the major averages rose to a winning week and their best month of 2022. The Dow advanced 316 points, or nearly 1%, to 32,845. The S&P 500 jumped 1.4% to 4,130, and the Nasdaq added about 1.9% to end the day at 12,391. For the week, the Dow ended higher by nearly 3%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained about 4.3% and 4.7%, respectively. The Dow rose to a 6.7% gain for July. The S&P 500 added 9.1% for the month. The Nasdaq Composite, while still in bear market territory, is up roughly 12.4%. Those were the biggest monthly gains for all three indexes since 2020. July was an impressive run in stocks and far better than I imagined based on the data and the VIX is down to 21 from over 36 in March. Art Cashin and other believe this is a “Bear Market'“ rally. Amazon & Apple rallied post earnings, as did Chevron and Exxon. The 10-year Treasury rallied again and is down to 2.66% yield relative to 3.5% in mid-June and the 2s/10s Treasury curve is -22bps. Bitcoin passed $24k, but settled just under.

  

• The US is in a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The 2nd quarter showed -.9% GDP after a -1.6% print in the 1st quarter. I have written about 2s/10s curve flattening and going negative for some time. Every time since 1976 that the 2s/10s Treasury curve has gone negative, we have had a recession and this time is no different. Interestingly, hours prior to the GDP announcement, Powell suggested we are not in a recession. Also, the White House has been suggesting the definition of a recession should be different. Janet Yellen also suggested the economy is not in a recession despite two consecutive negative quarters of GDP. It is pretty funny. If Trump were in the White House, the press would be going crazy about a recession and now we have the Fed, the Treasury Secretary and the administration suggesting we are not in a recession despite the GDP data. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research makes the ultimate recession call to include a host of factors. This is the WSJ take on the GDP data. Call it whatever you want. The economy is weaker and the Fed screwed up and more layoffs are coming. Amazon has 100k fewer employees than the last quarter? Tech's great layoffs: Over 30,000 tech employees lost their jobs as of July.

  

• Earnings

  • Amazon jumps on revenue beat and rosy guidance for third quarter

    • EPS loss of 20 cents, but revenue beat handily. Expects 13-17% revenue growth in 3rd Q. Claims consumer spending remains strong.

  • Apple beats on revenue and profit, expects growth to accelerate despite ‘pockets of softness’

    • EPS and revenue beat, but no formal guidance for 3rd Q.

  • Roku earnings Q2 2022: shares crater on 'recessionary fears'

    • Missed top and bottom line and stock was -25% post earnings.

  • Intel CFO says we’re ‘on the bottom’ after company misses earnings and stock sinks

    • Weak quarterly results and slashed guidance. Revenue -22%. Stock was -11% after earnings.

• A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting ballot outcomes — the misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects it forward through election day. The result: Based on past voting patterns, President Joe Biden’s party can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and a few in the Senate too, easily wiping out razor-thin Democratic majorities. I am no expert on election projections, but 40 House seats seems high to me despite the troubles of the Democrats. I also feel if they get the Manchin-Schumer Bill passed, it gives Democrats some much needed momentum going into the mid-terms.

  

  

  

Other Headlines

• China Warns: Pelosi Trip Marks ‘Invasion’ and Military Has Right to Fire on Her Plane

  • I want to remind everyone China is the WORST PARTNER EVER. They are responsible for the deaths of 6mm due to the pandemic and trillions of damages. They steal our IP, have labor camps, punish homosexuals... The South China Sea is heating up as well.

• Euro area GDP Q2 2022: Growth accelerates for euro zone

  • .7% growth vs expectations of .2%. I am a bit shocked given the energy situation in Europe. German city Hanover bans hot showers as Russian gas crisis begins to bite.

  • London's Record £9,724.54 per Megawatt Hour to Avoid a Blackout - Bloomberg (5000%+ higher than normal).

  

• Walmart demand is down, but America’s warehouses are still filling up on inventory of goods

• Best Buy cuts its outlook, joining other retailers as inflation pressures shoppers

• Gas prices aren’t the biggest inflation concern

  

• Rivian Automotive Lays Off 6% of Its Workforce

  • The stock is -68% in a year and -82% from November highs. Market cap was $155bn and now under $31bn after being as low as $19bn in May.

• JetBlue wins takeover bid for Spirit in $3.8 billion buyout

  • JetBlue was my favorite US airline and Spirit, my least favorite. I may do a report on my one Spirit flight from 5 years ago, which traumatizes me to this day. There ain’t no free lunch. The cheaper fares on Spirit are for a reason.

• How a Strong USD (DXY) Is Pushing the Global Economy to Recession - Bloomberg

  • I have written on this topic extensively. Good article. Dollar is strong.

  

• Pelosis sold $5M in Nvidia stock ahead of chipmaker subsidy vote

  • I am adamantly opposed to those in the Senate or House and their spouses being able to trade stocks. It is wrong and politicians have been getting away with insider trading for years. Countless millions have been made. It is illegal for you to do it, but not for them?

• Deloitte: 75% of retailers plan to accept crypto payments in 2 years

  • Seems high to me, but good for crypto. I would think it would make retail earnings far more volatile unless they have a very robust hedging program.

• 75% of Democrats want someone other than Biden in 2024, poll shows

• Biden: Americans ‘so down’ about economy due to inflation, lack of $8K checks

  • I read the article as Biden tried to suggest he needs to give more handouts to people to make them feel better. I disagree. The last handouts helped to contribute to runaway inflation and a desire to not work. Let’s not forget trillions in deficits.

• CNN focus group of Dems reveals Biden’s troubles go far beyond his age

  • This is CNN. Not sure how much more left you can be, yet they are ramping up negative stories on Biden.

• Alleged anti-Asian NYC pepper-spray attacker to be freed after DA scraps $20K bail

  • I believe a hate crime should result in mandatory jail time of no less than 5 years. The woman made xenophobic remarks and pepper sprayed 4 Asian women in NYC in June, yet her bail has been scrapped. Explain why this is a good idea please.

• New York City prosecutor defends going easy on teen who brutally attacked cop

  • The 16-year-old has racked up three felony arrests in less than four months -- including gun possession. I won’t stop writing about this topic. It is horrible for NYC. Please watch the video. Are you kidding me? He should rot in jail. Adams is livid. Fire Bragg.

• Experts call shootings in 75th Precinct a warning sign for NYC

  

• NYC's notorious squeegee men are back

  

• Recidivism rates for burglars and thieves soar: NYPD data

  • Wait. Let me get this right. Let repeat offenders out with no bail and no consequences and they go back to crime? Who could have possibly thought that could happen? Recidivism rates have tripled in since 2017 before the bail-reform laws. Bragg, Foxx, Krasner, Gascon must go as District Attorneys.

    

• Chicago prosecutor blasts Kim Foxx in resignation letter, can’t work for office 'I don't respect’

  • I hope more come to the realization that soft on crime policies hurt the law-abiding citizens, businesses, tourism and force those who can leave to flee. Ken Griffin and Citadel is a perfect example.

• DC Mayor Requests National Guard to Help With Migrants Bused to Capital

  • Open borders can result in issues? Again, remarkable.

• Andrew Yang and ex-GOP officials form new political party to appeal to moderates

• Who is Viktor Bout, Russian arms dealer known as the 'Merchant of Death', touted for US prisoner swap?

  • Apparently, Biden is willing to let the “Merchant of Death” out in exchange for Griner and Whelan. What happened to NOT negotiating with terrorists? I do not support this swap. Read the CNN article on Bout and why he was arrested on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, acquire and export anti-aircraft missiles, and provide material support to a terrorist organization.

• Asia's richest woman loses half her $24 billion fortune due to China’s growing real estate crisis

• Woman refuses to attend sister’s wedding due to major issue with her fiancé: ‘I don’t trust him’

  • Awkward.

• Man Drove Walmart Scooter While Drunk

  • Of course this happened in Florida. Where else?

• Russia hits southern Ukraine city, killing grain exporter, governor says

Virus/Vaccine

• The data is improving slightly. Cases actually fell 5% and hospitalizations, ICU and deaths are growing at slower rates. I added some data on recent low levels in the chart for comparative purposes.

• San Francisco and New York state declare health emergencies over monkeypox outbreak

Real Estate

• The Mandarin Oriental Hotel and Residences are under construction in Boca Raton, FL. There are approximately 164 rooms in the hotel and 85 condos in a separate tower connected by a 2 story bridge. Recently sales have traded in excess of $2,000 ft. Expected completion is 2023 and the Residences are approximately 90% sold. For perspective, prior to the pandemic, the best ocean front condos in Boca sold for low $1,000s/foot. However, the amenities at the Mandarin condos will include: spa, gyms, several restaurants (room service), shopping, a private golf club and city club, valet parking, tennis, a very cool rooftop with pools, bars and restaurants, club room, game room… It is not on the water but in the heart of the Downtown (Camino and US 1). The price per square foot is quite high for Boca, but the Mandarin name and extensive amenity package commands a higher price. The project includes more than 2 million square feet and has taken longer than expected to complete, but it will be a great addition to Boca Raton. I am very excited about some new high-end restaurants. The town sure needs it. I will be touring the course again in August when I get back in town. It opens soon.

  

• A company tied to the Bezos Family Foundation paid $34 million for a waterfront estate in Coral Gables, and is reportedly also the buyer of the mansion next door, sources told The Real Deal. Jackie and Mike Bezos, Jeff Bezos’ mother and stepfather, are linked to the entity that acquired the 12,829-square-foot, six-bedroom home at 9475 Journeys End Road. Bezos’ parents are also buying or have closed on the property next door at 9501 Journeys End Lane, sources told TRD. They are said to be paying roughly $40 million for the house. The high-end properties in Miami and Palm Beach, especially on the water, remain in high demand despite the broader market cooling off. Brokers have 10 buyers and limited inventory to show at these high price points. I wonder why Bezos did not buy in CA or NYC?

  

• The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.22% on Thursday from 5.54% on Wednesday. “This is an exceptionally fast drop!” wrote Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily. The rate fell even further Friday to 5.13%. The slide in mortgage rates came after a negative GDP report and the Fed’s latest interest rate hike. A few weeks ago, the average 30-year mortgage was over 6%.

• Boise’s Housing Market Boomed Early in the Pandemic. Now It Is Cooling Fast.

  • ‘Zoomtowns’ that drew remote workers are now expecting prices to fall as interest rates rise and companies call employees back to the office. According to the charts, inventory is up approximately 14 times since January of 2021 at the lows.

Other R/E Headlines

• It’s Only 4.56 Square Miles, But Sagaponack Is Home to New York’s Priciest Real Estate

  • About 100 miles east of Manhattan, 11962 is the state's most expensive ZIP Code

• California exodus continues, with L.A., San Francisco leading the way: 'Why are we here?'

• One Abandoned NYC Block Is "Frozen" In Peak-Pandemic Time

  • Note the location and impact of work from home, lack of desire for subway and crime. The impact to the local economy is massive.

• Foreign Purchases of U.S. Homes Fall to New Low

  • Foreigners bought 98,600 homes in the year ended in March, down 7.9% from prior year, National Association of Realtors says. Interesting data in article. The # of homes is down to foreign buyers, but the dollar volume is up.