Opening Comments
Clearly, I am not alone in my Wordle addiction. People were all over me about showing me high scores and giving me other ideas on derivations of Worlde including a game called “Quordl” and “Octordle.” I am not ready to move on from Worlde just yet.
The Rosen Family went to a fun concert on Friday night. It was called, “Postmodern Jukebox.” The band takes modern songs and re-arranges them into various genres from the past. Very talented musicians and singers. The founders are loyal Rosen Report readers who hosted us. It was different than I expected, but it was quite entertaining. They generally play a bunch of very popular songs, but this set had less numbers that I recognized. The founder, Scott Bradlee, had dinner with the us prior to the show and he is quite a composer and musician. He played on stage Friday in a rare outing and crushed a medley on the piano of bands requested by the audience. It was Queen, Wu Tang Clan, Hendrix and Neil Diamond mix which is incredibly impressive.
My cable has been acting up again with pixelated TV screens. I made an appointment with Xfinity. They give a 2-hour window. Of course, I sit around for the tech to show up and they came in the last 10 minutes of the window. Super frustrating. Cable companies are incredibly irritating on customer service.
Substantial Substack editing issues today. I kept making corrections and they did not stick. I am sure there are some serious mistakes today. Early send due to the Masters Golf Tournament.
Pictures of the Day-Masters Private Jet Traffic
I Won’t Choke Next Time
Quick Bites
Markets
Food Prices
Thiel on Bitcoin Haters
High Yield Update
Global EV Sales
WAPO on Musk/TWTR
CNN’s Stelter Eviscerated
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Data-Case Growth
Real Estate
General Comments
Crazy NYC Crime Story
Mortgage Rates=Lower Asking Prices
NYC Rental Market Bidding Wars
Skinny NYC Skyscraper/Condo-I’ll Pass
Picture of the Day
When the best talent in golf descend upon Augusta National every year, it turns Augusta Regional into an international hub. No week is busier for the quaint airport located about 13 miles from the world-famous golf course that hosts the Masters. Tim Weegar, the airport's director of operations, said they'll typically see about 1,500 to 1,600 "corporate" jets — i.e. private jets — land in Augusta for the Masters. I have been fortunate to attend the Masters more than a half dozen times. It is a very special venue and the condition of the course is remarkable. The operation is impressive, and it is something every golf fan should experience once. However, it is much better to see on TV in terms of catching action. I would go to a practice round before an actual tournament day as the crowds are so deep, you need to be Shaq on stilts to see anything.
Everything Could Go Wrong, Did Go Wrong
The spring in Florida tends to bring the best fishing of the year from my perspective. Big dolphin (mahi) and black-fin tuna migrate through our waters this time of the year while sailfish and wahoo are still around. The seas tend to get a little calmer and the fishing is close to shore in water depths of 80-300 feet (within a couple miles from shore). On Thursday, I went fishing despite 25 mph south winds. I was excited as we had a combination of live baits (goggle eyes) and frozen baits to troll.
I took out a package of bonita strips (6 in a package) and a massive gust of wind blew it off the boat and we could not track it down. We were getting tossed around on the boat pretty good and the wind was blowing the waves over the transom, and we were getting soaked. The weeds were plentiful which is generally a good thing, but they were scattered making it hard to fish without getting weeds on your bait. We quit trolling (dragging baits behind the boat) and started to use live baits.
I put a beautiful goggle eye on a hook and let out line. After a minute of line going out, I attached an 8 oz weight with a rubber band to send the bait deeper into cleaner water. Within a two-minutes, the bait gets WHACKED. I grabbed the rod and knew immediately it is a large tuna. I could tell by the way it fought. Tuna dive deep and shake their head in a manner which is clear. I am excited for my first substantial tuna of the season and what felt like could have been my record. Maybe my enthusiasm took me off my game. I fought the fish and I muscled it close to the boat. It flashed 12 feet from the boat (outside of gaff range) and it is a 40 lb monster. My arms are burning and I let the tuna’s head turn away from me. I lost right there. You have one shot at these things generally. It turned diving away from the boat and a shark crushed it. 100% my fault. It was a rookie mistake. These fish are shockingly strong. I weigh 4 times the size of the fish and it beat me up pretty good. I was dejected and should have landed the fish. Interestingly, the bite happened in 80 feet of water; I could swim to shore from there. My record black-fin was 34lbs in 119 feet two years ago, see below.
No time to waste, needed to get back out and do it again. We reset and this time also used a kite to get a line away from the boat. On the kite rod, we had a titanium leader in case a wahoo or kingfish bites given they have sharp teeth. Within 15 seconds, a massive fish hit the kite rod and in 3 seconds, broke the titanium. I have never once had titanium break on me. That means it was a BIG fish. Lost another one and my blood is boiling.
Yes, we caught some mahi, but nothing big. At this point, I felt I was zero for two on the fish that matter. The next time I put out a bait, I got weeded, I had to reel it in and take the weed off. In the weed was the tentacle of a man-o-war. It stung my hand badly and I inadvertently touched my face and am stinging in two places. I am soaking wet, my hand and face are burning, I lost the pack of bonita strips, and two massive fish. I wanted to go home and sulk given my poor showing.
Given the wind was so strong and the current pushed us north, we drifted over 12 miles and could not drive back in the ocean directly into the wind as it would be too rough. We went into the intracoastal for calmer waters and the drive took over an hour due to bridges and no-wake zones. In the ocean in calm seas, I could have made it in under 20 minutes.
I came to the dock a bit dejected and had to clean up the boat and a massive storm came as I was cleaning and got drenched. Everything that could go wrong did. I hate fishing….until I go out again next week for more punishment. I promise, I won’t choke next time. I want that tuna.
Quick Bites
The Dow climbed 230 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 was flat, after opening the day in the red. The Nasdaq fell 1%, on pace for its first weekly loss in four weeks. Despite a mild rebound Thursday, the major averages were headed for weekly declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1% and 2.6%, respectively, through Thursday’s close. The Dow was down 0.7% week to date. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on track for their first weekly losses in four weeks. Meanwhile, the Dow is headed for back-to-back weekly declines. Treasuries were hit this week with the 10-year yielding 2.71% (see chart of YTD 10-year Treasury yield). The 10-year yield increased by a whopping 38bps this week. on 12/31/21, the yield closed at 1.51% for perspective. Multiple Fed Presidents came out with concerning comments around inflation and the Fed being behind the curve. Note the 2nd chart (2s/10s) and the substantial move high after going negative. It now stands at positive 19bps. Again, each time we have had a negative close since 1980, we have had a recession. This went negative for a day and now move positive. Oil dropped almost 5% on the week and finished just under $98/barrel. Despite the fact that oil has fallen 20% from the recent highs, gas prices remain elevated and are only 4.5% off the highs from one month ago. US gas prices average $4.13/gallon.
Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever last month largely because of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the “massive supply disruptions” it is causing, threatening millions of people in Africa, the Middle East elsewhere with hunger and malnourishment, the United Nations said Friday. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of commodities, averaged 159.3 points last month, up 12.6% from February. As it is, the February index was the highest level since its inception in 1990. This Bloomberg article has similar conclusions and a good graph. The suggestion is the wheat disruptions in Ukraine will go through next year.
Billionaire entrepreneur Peter Thiel on Thursday called billionaire investor Warren Buffett a top “enemy” of bitcoin and part of a “finance gerontocracy” that has held back the cryptocurrency’s adoption. Bitcoin could have a market capitalization that matches the $12 trillion gold market and even the $115 trillion public equity market, Thiel said at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami on Thursday. But a group that the outspoken venture capitalist referred to as the “finance gerontocracy” has suppressed bitcoin’s adoption, said Thiel, who called Buffett a “sociopathic grandpa from Omaha.” Buffett is the chairman and chief executive of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Thiel’s list also included Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock Inc. “Why bitcoin has not yet gone up to $100,000 to a million dollars? Why has it not yet converged with gold or or even with the equity markets more broadly?” Thiel said. “It’s a movement as a political question, whether this movement is going to succeed, or whether the enemies of the movement are going to succeed in stopping us.”
Given the rates move and destruction in fixed income products, I wanted to highlight the High Yield market. This data is through Thursday, 4-7-22. The J.P. Morgan US High-Yield Index is -5.19% YTD. The yield to worst is 6.61%, and the spread is 404 bp. The par weighted average price decreased $0.21 to $94.57. The average price for BB bonds decreased $0.18 to $96.41, for Bs the price decreased $0.24 to $96.06, and for CCCs the price decreased $0.26 to $88.69. One year ago, the index was +9.5% YTD, the yield was 4.47% and the spread was 389bps with the average price of 102.36. In price terms, the average bond is down 6+ points in one year.
This Bloomberg article is about EV adoption globally with the projection that we will have 25mm EVs (5mm+ are hybrids in that #), will be on the road globally by the end of 2022. This is GREAT news and ahead of plans, but for perspective, there are 1.2bn cars on the road, which means approximately 2% will be electric according to BNEF. I would have thought more cars in the world given the US has 285mm. Interestingly, China and Europe are driving most of the adoption with North America a distant third. Again, reliance on fossil fuels is not going away anytime soon. Let’s be energy independent and control our own destiny while continuing to make strides in EVs and alternative energy sources. I thought the second picture was interesting around lithium prices and Musk’s comments on the subject. Prices are up 4.5 times in one year and 18 times in 10 years.
This story is comedy at its finest and is about Musk buying a 9% stake in Twitter. The Washington Post does not like a rich guy buying into Twitter to influence outcomes. The Post published a piece on Friday titled, "Elon Musk’s vision of ‘free speech’ will be bad for Twitter." In it, tech investor and former Reddit CEO Ellen K. Pao bashed the billionaire's bought-in "welcome" to Twitter, calling it "highly disconcerting — a slap in the face, even." The irony of The Washington Post publishing Pao's remark calling for "regulation of social media platforms to prevent rich people from controlling our channels of communication" was not lost among critics, who pointed out that the paper is owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos. WAPO has gotten so many things wrong, and is owned by one of the wealthiest people in the world and has the audacity to call out Musk for investing in TWTR? WAPO journalists won Pulitzer Prizes for work on the Russian interference in the elections. I call out hypocrisy and this Ellen Pao article and the next bullet are mind numbing examples of it.
CNN media reporter Brian Stelter looked uncomfortable during a conference on disinformation when a college freshman grilled him over his network’s record in promoting false claims. Christopher Phillips, a first-year student at the University of Chicago, confronted Stelter, who was invited to speak about the phenomenon of “fake news” at a seminar titled “Disinformation and the Erosion of Democracy.” Phillips, who is a reporter for the libertarian-leaning newspaper the Chicago Thinker, took to the microphone and reminded Stelter of CNN’s reporting errors. “They push the Russian collusion hoax, they push the Jussie Smollett hoax, they smear Justice [Brett] Kavanaugh as a rapist, and they also smeared Nick Sandmann as a white supremacist,” Phillips told Stelter. “And yes, they dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop affair as pure Russian disinformation.” He continued: “With mainstream corporate journalists becoming little more than apologists and cheerleaders for the [Biden] regime, is it time to finally declare that the canon of journalistic ethics is dead or no longer operative?” Phillips then added: “All the mistakes of the mainstream media and CNN, in particular, seem to magically all go in one direction. Are we expected to believe that this is all just some sort of random coincidence or is there something else behind it?” The link has the video of Stelter’s weak response. Media bias is something I write about often, and I feel happens on both sides. I just think it is comical that Stelter, who could be among the most biased journalists, spoke about the bias of everyone else and was properly confronted on it. It is akin to Jeffrey Dahmer calling Hannibal Lecter demented. Congrats to the young journalist for having the courage to ask a difficult question. University of Chicago, baby!
Other Headlines
A "recession shock" is coming, BofA warns
“Inflation shock' worsening, 'rates shock' just beginning, 'recession shock' coming," BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote.
As inflation bites and America’s mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too
A sour and angry America poised to punish Dems this fall
Good statistics in the link
Walmart Dangles $110,000 Starting Pay to Lure Truck Drivers
Many should not go to a traditional four year college when you can make 6 figures driving a truck after taking a 12-week training program. This is without going into 6 figures of debt for a traditional 4 year program.
Elon Musk says humans could eventually download their brains into robots
Senate confirms Ketanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court
Congrats to Brown and Biden for getting this done. I continue to contend that I would have liked a wider slate to see who the best candidate was for this life-time appointment, but what is done is done.
Old Enough: the Japanese TV show that abandons toddlers on public transport
I just don’t see Americans allowing kids to run errands at 2 or 3 years old.
Digging into the details on Chicago’s murder clearance rate
Concerning article about the murder clearance rate in Chicago. I lived there for a totals of 13 years in two stints and when I tell you NOTHING could ever get me to live there again, I am not lying.
Midtown merchants plead with Hochul to clamp down on skyrocketing NYC crime
These merchants are getting hit by high crime and far fewer paying customers as WFH has taken a big bite out of Midtown retail traffic.
Shoplifters busted by NYPD after nabbing $70K in merch in Soho boutique heist
Not the first time the “suspects” hit the store Kirna Zabete on Broome Street. In February, they stole $50k worth of handbags. Yes, AOC, the crime is to steal for baby formula. How about some jail time?
Man stabbed in head during ‘unprovoked attack’ in Manhattan, cops say
Addict’s mother slams San Francisco drug policies: ‘Let police arrest my son’
BLM’s LA mansion sold for 250 percent more than the price of similar homes in the area
Yet another article which does not read well for BLM. Donate with caution.
Read the facts here and tell me you are not concerned about the government involvement in this case. Substantial conflicts and influence by federal informants and the FBI.
Canada bans foreign home buyers for two years
You just don’t see this move often in order to curb home prices. Maybe we should prevent people from the Northeast, Midwest and CA from buying in Florida for a couple years, and the Florida market would take a healthy pause.
Time to Hit Pause on 'Pausing' Puberty in Gender-Dysphoric Youth
The article outlines 3 to 4 out of 100 teens in the US reported they may be transgender in 2017 and in 2021, it jumped to 9 out of 100. In 2013, the article suggests adult gender dysphoria to be less than 14 in 100,000. To me, these numbers are just not adding up. The growth is crazy.
New Jersey to require 2nd graders learn about gender identity in fall, alarming parents
Will Smith Banned From Oscars For 10 Years For Slapping Chris Rock
I do not think this is strong enough punishment. I ask one simple question. What would have happened if a White man, let’s say it was Christian Bale, Johnny Depp, Brad Pit, Timothee Chalamet… who struck Chris Rock. What would the punishment have been? I will never watch another Will Smith movie again in protest.
Hunter Biden frequently covered family expenses, texts reveal
This story was covered up by media for 18 months, but the more details which emerge suggests there should be a deeper investigation. Hunter’s texts to his daughter and records of paying for his father’s bills while he was VP is concerning.
US life expectancy continues historic decline with another drop in 2021, study finds
After falling nearly 1.9 years in 2020, life expectancy in the US decreased another 0.4 years in 2021 as Covid-19 continued to spread.
This one does not read well and the rocket has “For our children” written on the side of it in Russian. However, more readers are sending me stories that not all Russian attack news is as what it seems. Although there is no hard proof at this time, it appears we may not be getting the complete picture on the sources of all these rocket attacks. I am trying to spend time to better understand it, but I have lots of questions I would like answered. Are any experts here? Contact me if you have a strong view. Below is an example of what is floating around out there.
Virus/Vaccine
Over a week ago, I wrote about concerning case trends in some states, and things have escalated and for the first time in months, US cases are growing, albeit at a low pace. There are 19 states seeing upticks in cases to some degree. Good news is the hospitalization and death rates continue to drop sharply. I am getting more calls and emails from readers who are testing positive. One was quite sick last week. Mayor Adams tested positive today.
Second COVID booster shot extends protection for just a few weeks, study shows
China leading citizens to jump from balconies in quest to achieve ‘COVID Zero’
Read this link. No food and cannot leave your home.
Real Estate
I have so many stories today that I will keep my comments brief. I was sent this article by a reader, but I do not subscribe to the Sun Sentinel and can’t open it. I feel the title is pretty self-explanatory as the wealth which has descended to South Florida is amazing. “Billionaires pushing out the millionaires: South Florida’s oceanfront homes soar to record prices.” I have friends who were bid $25mm on a home and did not sell it despite making close to triple their money in a short period. Why not sell? There is nowhere to go. Inventory is so limited at every price point.
I have been speaking with a family from NYC with two children. Both parents are professionals and have been considering leaving NYC for all the reasons we have discussed including crime, cost of living, weather, taxes, quality of life, homeless… This picture of the family car on Saturday. Kids were playing tennis in the middle of the day and they came out to their car in NYC to go back to the apartment. Anything seem odd to you? For the life of me, I just cannot figure out why you would live in NYC unless you had to be there. Adams, Bragg, crime must be stopped. Those who are leaving the city are the ones you want to keep. Why would you not punish criminals and set the example. So glad I don’t live there, but for the good of the citizens, bring back a Bloomberg type of mayor who is tough on crime and get Bragg out of there. By the way, I drive my golf cart to the tennis courts all year round. The cost of tennis in Boca is less than 10% that of NYC and free parking. $11 for 90 minutes in Boca relative to $100-165/hr for NYC prior to initiation fees and annual dues.
I have written extensively that a combination of rising rates and home price appreciation have made housing far less affordable. This CNBC article is entitled, “Rising mortgage rates are causing more home sellers to lower their asking prices,” and there are some interesting figures in it. About 12% of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3. That’s up from 9% a year ago, according to Redfin. The number of new listings last week jumped 8% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com. This follows four straight weeks of annual declines in new listings. Buyers are sweating because the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage really took off in the past few weeks, surpassing 5%, according to Mortgage News Daily. In a separate article, I found this chart from the WSJ interesting.
Interesting article on NYC rental market being hot and leading to bidding wars. In February, 17.7% of all listed Manhattan rentals went into a bidding war, up from a comparatively normal 0.9% last February. In Brooklyn, it grew to 19% of all rentals, up from 0.7% the previous February — while in Queens, it increased to 9.6% from 0.3% year-over-year. “It’s not just the high end that’s seeing bidding wars, we’re seeing [them] everywhere, and that’s because inventory has fallen significantly — in the last six months especially,” appraiser Jonathan Miller, said.
The world's skinniest skyscraper has been completed, adding a new landmark to Manhattan's famous skyline. Steinway Tower, or 111 West 57th Street, has a height-to-width ratio of 24:1, making it "the most slender skyscraper in the world," according to the developers. The midtown Manhattan development includes 60 apartments spanning the tower's 84 stories and the adjacent Steinway Hall building. Steinway Tower is now opening its doors to new residents, but while the building's silhouette is skinny, the prices certainly aren't, ranging from $7.75 million for a studio apartment to $66 million for the penthouse. I do not like this location, despite the beautiful views of Central Park. I would never live in Midtown Manhattan. It is too commercial. If I am forced to live in NYC because I lost a bet or a company was so desperate for my services they made me an offer I could not refuse, I would live in the Village, Flatiron, Tribeca, not Midtown. I don’t know about you, but there is no universe I am spending $7.75mm for a STUDIO apartment. Maybe, the CNN article got the pricing wrong, as the 2nd picture is the pricing on the website which are less offensive than CNN suggests. I see $3,000-9,000/ft pricing depending on unit size and floor on the website.
