If Corn Hole Makes the Olympic games...
2-20-22
Opening Comments
Something happened today on the auto save and may have missed some edits. Apologies. I am jammed up, but hitting send.
I am excited to be involved with a dinner with 15-20 people down in Miami next Thursday. I helped to coordinate it for the 3i Investing/Networking group I have written about. It will be a great way to network and I set up some golfers at LaGorce with Devin Kay (R/E contributor to the Rosen Report) and Max Greyserman (Korn Ferry Tour). When I moved down here 5 years ago this type of a gathering of largely South Florida residents would have been impossible. Now, as people are leaving the tri-state, Chicago, SFO, LA….we have far more business leaders, fund managers, tech titans and successful entrepreneurs down here (list in the R/E section today). I also spoke about my newsletter to a group called the Strategic Forum which ended up resulting in a bunch of new readers and some good advice on how to get the word out on the Rosen Report.
As my readers, know, my wife was in a car accident in her TSLA Model 3 in October when a woman ran a stop sign. There was $27k of damage to the car and it was totaled. We ordered a new Model Y for her the next day and TSLA suggested we would not get the car until August of 2022. A reader, Josh, set me up with someone at TSLA who fast tracked us to get it sooner and we will take delivery in the next couple weeks. White with white interior and 20” wheels. Thank you! My wife has been renting a Camry for 4 months, so this will be a welcome change.
Things are heating up in the Ukraine as top Ukrainian military official came under a shelling attack during a tour of the front of the separatist conflict near the eastern border. A few days ago, it looked like there may be a peaceful solution here, but now, signs are pointing to more Russian aggression. I think we can see a big spike in oil/gas prices if there is any real conflict. I feel this CNN article entitled, What does Putin want in Ukraine? The conflict explained is a good one and goes into details and history and why Putin is so obsessed with Ukraine. I am reading that now 150k Russian troops are surrounding Ukraine on three sides as well. At 5pm Sunday, this story broke entitled, “New intel adds to US fears that Russia is readying for military action.” The US has intelligence indicating orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine, according to two US officials and another source familiar with the US intelligence. Another late story from CNBC, “Biden abruptly cancels Delaware trip after top level meeting on Ukraine crisis.” Based on headlines, I would assume to see risk assets sell off and see Euro Futures down a little.
Picture of the Day-Jeans on Your Wedding Day
If Corn Hole makes the Olympic games...
Quick Bites
Markets, Roku/PLTR, Ark Innovation ETF
Bullard Comments/Charlie Munger on Inflation
U3, U5, U6 Unemployment
DOJ-Looking into Excess Profits
EV’s, Gender Pay Gap
NJ Teenager Fight with Bad Outcome
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Data-Improvements Across the Board
Real Estate
General Comments-Panther National, Discovery Hobe Sound
Miami becomes least affordable housing market in the US
Worst Traffic Cities in the USA
Greenwich, CT Update
Picture of the Day
Some idiot got married in jeans and a T-shirt in the UK. This is more likely to happen in Central or North Florida. I question this man’s character. Why do this to your soon to be wife and family? I question her judgement. Why marry a tool? What the hell is wrong with people? Ok, don’t wear a tux. I wore a blue suit and tie. Here is Mr. Moron pictured and the 2nd one is of me and my wife on our wedding day. Jeeze, I look young as it was 18 years ago despite the fact that it is not the best pic of me.
If Corn Hole makes the Olympic games...
I appreciate how hard the athletes work to hone skills to compete at such a high level in the Olympics. They dedicate their lives to compete sometimes for a couple minutes or less. I vividly remember watching the 1976 Olympics on my tube TV and witnessed Bruce/Caitlyn Jenner win the decathlon. I also watched in amazement the 1980 US Hockey Team beat the Russians (Miracle on Ice) and then go on to win gold. The link is to the final minute of the USA vs. Russia game with Al Michaels commentating. I actually have an autographed list of all the players from the 1980 team which hangs on my son’s wall.
I loved watching the 1992 “Dream Team” crush the competition in basketball. The team won the 6 games by an average of almost 52 points.
One of my big regrets was not attending the 2000 Olympics in Sydney. Chase, the company I worked for at the time, was a sponsor, and my boss offered me 4 tickets to take clients. I was 30 years old and single. I asked all my biggest clients to join me, and they came back after asking their wives and said, “No chance. My wife won’t let me go with a single guy for 10 days half-way across the world.” The result was I passed on the tickets and watched in awe from 9,929 miles away.
However, I do not understand the economics of hosting the games and feel we have lost our way with some of the sports which qualify to be in the Olympic games. I have decided to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics over the fact that it is being held in China. They are an oppressive regime and murdered millions with the pandemic lies and buying up of all the PPE. They have cost the world trillions and face no consequences. The ratings are terrible, and I am happy about it. Also, the athletes have complained about the accommodations and food. What amazing hosts.
My first issue with the Olympics is as a capitalist, I do not understand the economics. Cities spend BILLIONS and lose BILLIONS to host the games. As a President or Mayor or Governor, I would pass. I know countries host for nationalistic pride, but the cost to not justify hosting in my opinion.
I read a half dozen articles and although the numbers all differ slightly, the economics make no sense to me. The Tokyo games cost in excess of $35bn, and due to COVID, tickets were not sold and tourists did not come. Any revenue is split with the IOC (takes over half of TV revenue) and the country lost countless billions. The 2008 Beijing games cost over $50bn and lost tens of billions. Tell me why this is a good thing? Do you know what kind of lasting infrastructure you could build for $50bn to improve the lives of the residents? This article is entitled, “The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal,” and suggests the bill was 13 times the original estimate. Many venues are dilapidated shortly after the games end, and this link shows pictures from 20 different stadiums or venues. In Brazil, the games were marred with Zika. Then recent games in Tokyo and Beijing had COVID resulting in little or no ticket sales.
Rio 6 months after the games.
Athens pool from 2004 games
Beijing beach volleyball stadium from 2008
Sarajevo from 1984 games-Ski Jump
Sochi stadium from the 2014 Olympics
My next issue is the absurdity of some of the sports included in the Olympics. Who comes up with this crap? In the summer, they have Canoe Slalom and Sprint. How many people in the entire world care about this? They have way too many types of cycling, (BMX-Freestyle, BMX-Racing and Mountain Biking) and then they have cycling for road and track. Rhythmic Gymnastics? Who came up with this ridiculousness? What about trampoline gymnastics? Solo synchronized swimming is near the top of the idiotic list and was a sport from 1984-1992. Thankfully that has been eliminated from the games. As if synchronized swimming were not bad enough! How did we get here?
Now the Winter Games are irritating me as well. What in the hell is the difference between a luge and a skeleton? One goes headfirst and one feet first? Who cares? Ice Dancing vs Ice Skating? How did it come to this? A better sport would be to oil you up in a bathing suit and dive down the icy run. Now that would be a sport I might watch. It takes athleticism and the ability to handle ice on your tush. All you have is a helmet, shoes and a swimsuit.
I know this won’t be popular with some readers, but I just don’t get curling. Why is this a sport? It is like shuffleboard on ice but with a broom. What athletic talent does this take? I know people love this one, but for the life of me, I do not understand why.
What about backgammon being in the games? Maybe I can get a gold. How about drinking a bottle of wine and then playing backgammon? Surely that will be a crowd pleaser and one I might contend. I always found Twister to be fun and interesting. Given it includes flexibility, strength, gymnastics, strategy…I feel that should be added to the mix and would be a hell of a lot more fun to watch than some of the current events.
At what point does the idiotic game, Cornhole become a Summer Olympic event? Tossing a bean bag into a wooden crate sure seems like Olympic material to me. It is on ESPN and I am told there are some schools giving scholarships for Cornhole now contests. What the hell?
Maybe I am old fashioned. I want real sports in the Olympics and I want the economics to make sense. Do you know countries spend hundreds of millions just to be considered for the Olympics? Surely the money wasted to win and then host and the ensuing loses could be better spent elsewhere (homelessness, feeding the poor, environmental issues, healthcare, education, infrastructure…). Just a thought. My solution, have 8 venues (4 summer/4 winter) which rotate so cities don’t bankrupt themselves building dozens of stadiums which will be used for two weeks.
Just please don’t make me watch Rhythmic Gymnastics, Ice Dancing, the Canoe Slalom or Curling. If Cornhole makes the Olympic games, I might shoot my TV!
Quick Bites
U.S. stock indexes fell Friday and notched a second consecutive losing week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict put investors on edge. Biden belies Putin has decided to attack the Ukrain in coming days. The Dow shed 233 points, or 0.7%, at 34,079. The S&P 500 lost 0.7% to close at 4,349. The Nasdaq retreated 1.2% to 13,548. The indexes each lost more than 1% this week. Below are the three major indices for YTD performance and they are down 7-14%+. The 10-Year Treasury rallied on geo-political concerns and is yielding 1.93% while the 2-Year is trading at 1.47% causing a 2/10s spread to be 46bps. Oil and gas were down slightly. I would have thought both would have rallied on Ukraine headlines. Crypto sold off with BTC -2% to $40k and ETH -3% to $2.8k. I would like to see crypto de-couple from the broader markets, but it just has not done so.
Roku shares closed down 22.29% on Friday after the streaming company reported fourth-quarter revenue on Thursday evening that missed expectations and gave disappointing guidance for the first quarter. It’s the worst day since Nov. 8, 2018, when shares also fell 22.29%. Shares of Roku are about 77% off their highs on July 27, 2021. The company posted revenue of $865.3 million, which fell short of analysts’ projected $894 million. Revenue grew 33% year over year in the quarter, which is slower than the 51% growth rate it saw in the previous quarter and the 81% growth it posted in the second quarter. Plantair stock was -16% on the week and is only 10% above the IPO price and 64% below the 52-week high. The company posted a larger than expected loss in the 4th Q despite 34% revenue growth.
There are multiple stories about the ARK Innovation ETF, but none are positive for the once high-flying ETF and fund manager. The fund is down 33% YTD and 58% in the last year. Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF has recently become 3 times as volatile as the Nasdaq QQQ—and even jumpier than Bitcoin. On TV recently she said, “We’ve had a significant decline,” Wood said, adding, “we do believe innovation is in the bargain basement territory.” She noted that while her ETF wasn’t performing at its best, her stocks were still “way undervalued” and the recent fund loss was only temporary. But a big part of the interview was focused on a more personal attack against Cathie Wood, who was named best stock picker in 2020 by Bloomberg’s then editor-in-chief Matthew Winkler, after she correctly predicted Tesla would one day be worth more than $1 trillion.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard cautioned Thursday that without central bank action on interest rates, inflation could become an even more serious problem. “We’re at more risk now than we’ve been in a generation that this could get out of control,” he said during a panel talk at Columbia University. “One scenario would be ... a new surprise that hits us that we can’t anticipate right now, but we would have even more inflation. That’s the kind of situation that we want to ... make sure it doesn’t occur.” I have written about Bullard in the last three reports as he has been vocal about his inflation fears and seems the most hawkish of the Fed Presidents.
In an exclusive interview Wednesday with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer, legendary investor Charlie Munger weighed in on the high stakes of soaring inflation in the United States. Citing examples from the Roman Republic to Adolf Hitler to Latin America, Munger said, “Inflation is a very serious subject, you could argue it is the way democracies die.” He notes that it was after of years of inflation when “eventually the whole damn Roman Empire collapsed, so [the current situation] is the biggest long-range danger we have, apart from nuclear war.” Munger, 98, is vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
Later on Wednesday during the annual meeting of the Daily Journal corporation, Munger’s publishing and technology company, he expanded on his inflation comments noting that he didn’t know how it would all work out in the U.S. context “but we are flirting with serious trouble.” Over the course of the conversation, Munger lightly criticized the U.S. government’s response to high inflation by pointing towards a reaction to the pandemic that was “was bigger than it’s ever been before in the history of the United States.” Munger says that, looking back, the government “probably overdid it a little, they threw so much money, so fast, that it is hard for the restaurants to get people to do the work.” I believe I have been among the most vocal on my inflation concerns for nearly one year. However, I do feel that things will start to improve in coming months and it will become less of an issue. Supply chains will re-open (signs already), tough comparables as we are back to pre-pandemic levels in many areas after being depressed and the less accommodative Fed will all help to moderate inflation. I hope we do not pass anymore stimulus bills or give away free money for people to sit home and play video games.
I wanted to go over unemployment jargon which I have done before. Yes, we have quite low levels of unemployment, but today, we have 3.5mm less jobs than April 2020 peak. We need more people to come back to work to improve the talent pools and cool the wage pressures. Definitions of unemployment rates:
U3 is the official unemployment rate. 4% today.
U5 adds on discouraged workers and all other marginally attached workers. These people are still unemployed, but not in the market for a variety of reasons. 4.9% today.
U6 adds on those workers who are part-time purely for economic reasons. 7.1% today.
The Department of Justice announced Thursday that it will begin investigating companies for earning what it believes to be excessive profits amid surging inflation and ongoing supply chain issues. In a press release, the department said its antitrust division would begin to "deter, detect and prosecute those who would exploit supply chain disruptions" to earn what the department calls "illicit profit." The goal of the initiative, according to the department, is to prevent companies from "overcharging customers under the guise of supply chain disruptions."
I received some mail from readers questioning why I was harsh on Biden’s oil policy. Let me be clear, we have owned an EV for almost 5 years. I think we were relatively early adopters. I can’t wait to take delivery of the new TSLA and would buy a truck if I could get it. However, I am attaching a good Reuters story from less than two weeks ago which suggests than than 1% of the cars and light duty trucks on the road are electric today. Let’s not even bring up heavy trucks. According to the article, in 2035, 45% of new car sales will be electric. That is 13 years from now and in the US today there are over 250 million cars on the road of which 99% are not EVs. I do not want to be reliant on Saudi Arabia or OPEC for our oil. I preferred when the US was energy independent. However, if you make more EV’s available, I will use them, but we need some serious charging stations. We have the longer battery model and cannot go on long road trips as it is just not practical. The one issue is in Florida is hurricanes and being without power. Same is true of fires and earthquakes in CA. I will have a gas car for the foreseeable future to help make sure my family is protected. I am all for going green and doing whatever we can. I also feel bad actors like China, India, Russia need to do their part as well. It should not just be the US.
The gender pay gap among top executives at S&P 500 companies in the first year of the pandemic grew to its widest since 2012, fueled in part by male executives’ disproportionate gains from stock-based compensation. In 2020, women in the c-suite earned 75% of what their male counterparts took home, a report released Wednesday by Morningstar found. That’s the widest the gap has been in nine years, and down from 88% — a high point — in 2018. There were slightly more women in the highest paying jobs at public companies than years prior and their salaries were about on par with men in similar roles. Yet, the bulk of executive pay comes from stock-related awards, and there, men outperformed women by 30-percentage points. Of 18 executives earning more than $50 million in 2020, only one was a woman, the report found. Although progress has been made, more needs to happen. There is no excuse for women to make less then men in the same roles. I don’t care your sex, race, religious beliefs, sexual preference… if you are good at your job, you should be rewarded for it. I have some very senior women on my distribution and trust me, they are brilliant and hugely value added to their firms and industries. They should be paid every bit as well as the best paid people in the business.
What are the ramifications of this trend for cities and office buildings? More people are choosing to work from home because they want to, even if their office is open and they’re less concerned about Covid risks, according to new findings from Pew Research Center. According to a January survey of 5,889 workers, 61% of people working from home today say they’re not going into their workplace because they don’t want to, and 38% say their office is closed. It’s a reversal from October 2020, when 64% of people were working from home because their office was closed, and 36% were doing so out of preference.
Even as more offices open up, “people are making a conscious choice to work from home, rather than just out of necessity,” says Kim Parker, Pew’s director of social trends research. I feel the hybrid model makes the most sense which gives the ability of workers to collaborate while allowing the flexibility to work from home and be more efficient.
This CNN article/video is quite concerning about a fight between teenagers. There are two boys approximately 14 years old fighting. When the cops come to break it up, the police gently place the White kid on a couch and handcuff the Black kid. The White boy was the instigator and was picking on a younger kid. The young Black man intervened to protect his smaller friend. Watch the video. Quite concerning. There needs to be real consequences here for the police given their action/inaction. The Black teen’s lawyer wants the cops fired. I feel at the very least, the cops should be suspended without pay and be forced to take 6 months of classes. What is the history of the officers? If they have an exemplary record, then I am fine with the punishment I outlined. If they have infractions in their record, then fire them. I do not believe you should have a system which lets violent criminals go and the same system fires cops for one offense. But make no mistake, I do not condone racist behavior from ANYONE.
Other Headlines
Massive Credit Suisse leak reportedly reveals possible criminal ties among 18,000 accounts
Fed approves rules banning its officials from trading stocks, bonds and also cryptocurrencies
It is about time. Now Congress must do the same.
Judge orders Trump, children to answer questions about their business practices under oath
Take the 5th? The choice could soon be Trump’s in NY probe
Oops. Trump, you were always critical of anyone who plead the Fifth. No, what are you going to do? “The mob takes the Fifth,” Trump told a campaign crowd in Iowa when running for president. “If you are innocent, do not remain silent,” Trump tweeted in 2014, offering free advice as Bill Cosby faced a flurry of sexual assault accusations. “You look guilty as hell!”
Donald Trump took classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, National Archives says
Larry Ellison pumps $15M into super PAC aligned with Tim Scott
Even before this $15mm, I felt Scott was on the short list for the Republicans.
I listed to the interview on CNBC and must say this is quite concerning. It is a 4 minute interview and suggest you watch it. Be careful what you say in the new world. She WAS on the short list to be CEO.
I want answers. How is this possible? The people involved are so powerful it is scary. The video proof is worth billions.
Restaurateur says he spends around $750,000 on security to deal with unruly diners
It is the inconsistency which bothers me.
Police arrest 47 of the remaining Covid-19 protesters in Ottawa
Chicago teen shot 24 times while buying snacks, family says
Jeeze, this kid looks awfully young. How sad. Mayor Lightfoot, what does it take to have a solution here? According to the website which tracks Chicago murder, Hey Jackass, Lightfoot has witnessed just under 2,000 murders since 2019 as Mayor. An amazing amount of data on the site about Chicago crimes despite the funny name, the data is no laughing matter. 850 homicides and 3,746 shot and wounded in Chicago in 2021.
‘Professional’ thief with 96 prior arrests busted again at NYC Target
What does it take to put a career criminal behind bars for 10 years to get him off the streets? Does it happen at 100? Who benefits from these policies? Surely it is not the tax payers and law abiding citizens of NYC.
NYPD arrest Babacar Mbaye for punching 4-year-old, kicking cop
Attack happened in the afternoon in Times Square and the assailant has a “history of attacking strangers.” Tell me why this is good for NYC? Tell me why he is on the streets. He has been arrested 51 times and was arrested two weeks prior for another assault. He has been arrested for assault on 1/20, 2/3 and 2/17 of this year. Here is what he said after: “I drank a whole bottle of hand sanitizer. I shouldn’t have done this,” the suspect told police while in custody at Bellevue Hospital, according to prosecutors.
Eric Adams to crack down on rule-breaking on NYC subway with new safety plan
Let’s see how this goes. Will people actually be sent to jail or will Bragg and his team refuse to prosecute?
A 12-year-old is charged with murder in the beating death of a 70-year-old man during a carjacking
Man arrested three times within 16 hours, Glendale police say
Amazon suspends Black Lives Matter from its charity platform
Interesting reason they were suspended.
This story is scary. A little girl was framed and spent time in juvenile detention for something she did not do.
MIT Researcher: Don’t Ignore the Possibility That AI Is Becoming Conscious
I am not sure I understand this one, but it seems pretty scary to me.
If you see me on the field next season, it is because I am leaving my lucrative job of writing the Rosen Report for water boy duties.
Florida ER doctor repeatedly slapped patient, accused her of 'faking'
Wow, I hope this guy is not my doctor.
Penn's Lia Thomas picks up victory in 200 free at Ivy League Championships, sets meet record
Lia won by almost 2 seconds which is like an hour. I am adamantly opposed to allowing these races to take place. Note, when she raced against men in college, she (he at the time) was uncompetitive.
So much for the Mr. Nice Guy routine. Walked away from a person in need? Really? The few second video is quite concerning.
I really did not see this one coming.
An Abandoned Cargo Ship Carrying Porsches and VWs Is Burning in the Atlantic
Under maritime law, it is abandoned any anyone can get the goods according to an article. My boat is not big enough or I might drive it out and pick up a new ride. 1,100 Porsches and 189 Bently cars on the boat.
Damaged 33 properties and entered 28 homes. If a 500lb bear comes into my house, I hope it is scared of the smell of poop, because I am pooping in my pants. We were golfing in Tahoe and a large black bear was on our hole. It could have easily outrun the golf cart.
How Bezos stacks up against other tech titans in super-yacht size race
Read the annual costs of running these yachts and you will throw-up.
Virus/Vaccines
Cases have fallen 87% from peak levels of just over 1 month ago and are now 107k/day. We have not been at this level of cases since early December of 2021. Hospitalizations fell 41% over two weeks and ICUs are -38%. Deaths fell 13% and are under 2.3k/day.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday his children “won’t be wearing a mask” when their local school district’s Covid face-covering mandate lifts later this month. “If it becomes optional, I think most kids won’t. Some will, and we need to respect that. Some parents are going to continue to wear masks,” said Gottlieb, a board member of Covid vaccine maker Pfizer and a former head of the Food and Drug Administration.
The omicron wave that assaulted the United States this winter also bolstered its defenses, leaving enough protection against the coronavirus that future spikes will likely require much less — if any — dramatic disruption to society.
Millions of individual Americans’ immune systems now recognize the virus and are primed to fight it off if they encounter omicron, or even another variant.
About half of eligible Americans have received booster shots, there have been nearly 80 million confirmed infections overall and many more infections have never been reported. One influential model uses those factors and others to estimate that 73% of Americans are, for now, immune to omicron, the dominant variant, and that could rise to 80% by mid-March. Seems high to me.
At the beginning of February, Denmark became the first major country to lift the last of its COVID-19 restrictions and effectively declare its part in the pandemic over. Around the world, and especially in the United States, Denmark’s “liberation” from indoor mask mandates, vaccine passports and nightclub closures was heralded as a watershed moment — the shape of things to come. Democratic governors across the U.S. started rescinding their own mask rules a few days later. “Not looking good in Denmark,” Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Translational Institute, tweeted Sunday, sharing several charts that terminated in near-vertical upward lines. “Deaths are now 67% of peak, with a steep ascent.” “The world is looking to Denmark as a guide to removing all restrictions,” Topol added in a subsequent tweet, “and it seems that we've seen this movie before.”
Real Estate
Tonight, I spoke with a Palm Beach realtor who told me two of his projects (pre-construction) have sold a total of 30 out of 32 condo units for $5-12mm+. Pricing is $1500-2200+/ft. These are in Delray on the beach.
Tuesday, I am going to Panther National for the “ground breaking” ceremony as construction begins on the project. I wrote extensively about this in the Puff Piece report last month. I put down a reservation, but am not sure the Rosen family could live so far west. We will check it out on Tuesday. A reader called me with information regarding the new Discovery property in Hobe Sound called Atlantic Fields. There are 400 people on the wait list. He said, "If you don't own in another Discovery Property, good luck." They have not started moving dirt and he expects it to be 3 years away! I believe there are 320 homes or so. He said there is golf, polo grounds, tennis, and a beach club. The demand for high end properties is crazy and I have spoken with people who are trying to buy and can’t even put their names on the wait list at Atlantic Fields. I do believe that Discovery properties are in a class by themselves and the service, residents and amenities are special. I personally do not love the location of this one as it is so far north, but I believe over the next few years that is were the growth will be as there are 10 new golf courses going in up there. I believe Atlantic Fields is almost 30 miles north of Restoration Hardware on Okeechobee in Palm Beach for perspective.
A reader told me about a new Real Deal article entitled, “Miami becomes least affordable housing market in the US.” A household in the city of Miami would have to contribute 78.7% of its income toward home ownership costs, according to RealtyHop’s February affordability index. That’s based on a median home price of $589,000 and a projected median household income of $43,401. New York became the second least affordable city in February. A household in New York City would have to spend close to 78% of its income on home ownership costs, including mortgage payments and property taxes. That’s based on a median annual household income of $68,259 and median home price of $970,000. In third-ranking Los Angeles, households can expect to spend 74.2% of their annual incomes on housing, based on a median income of $68,733 and a median home price of $925,000. Miami has moved higher in the ranking of least affordable cities for housing in recent months, eclipsing Los Angeles in October to take the No. 2 spot. I was an early adopter to South Florida buying in May of 2017. I looked extensively in Miami and I could not get comfortable for a host of reasons (traffic, lack of golf, prices, I do not speak Spanish) and prices are basically triple since then. If you are moving south, look between Fort Lauderdale to Jupiter area. Less money and far less congestion/traffic. When I look at prices in Miami, I am dumbfounded. I will never live down there, but like to grab a bite or a ball game. When I look at my life in total and cost of living in NYC vs South Florida, it is not even close. South Florida is FAR cheaper to live when you factor in all your costs and throw in the tax savings and quality of life and it is a no brainer. I spend now about 70% of what I did in NYC and my house is over 2x the size, have a boat, and my kids are far more expensive today than when we left NYC. This does not factor in the tax savings or the amount of money taken out of the R/E swap which is harder to do now. I don’t think Sternlicht, Icahn, Witkoff, Sundheim, Theil, Brady, Blumberg, Rabois, Schwab, Schleifer, Burch, Och, Paul Tudor Jones, Cooperman, Altman, and so many other wealthy people are leaving the tri-state, Chicago and CA for South Florida without good reasons. I do not believe it is only taxes which are driving people. Offices for GS, Elliot, Balyasny, Millennium, Citadel and others are all opening or have opened. Additionally, I looked at nice one bedrooms in Greenwich Village this morning. I lived at 20 Fifth Avenue for 10 years and a one-bedroom is $7,200/month. No gym. No pool. I can tell you right now that in Miami Beach, you can find a nice one bedroom for half that with a pool and gym and views. The Miami apartment has parking in the building.
This article outlines the cities with the worst traffic congestion based on GPS data. Note Miami is now #3. No chance I would live there. I left NYC for a lot of reasons and sitting in traffic was one of them.
New York City, New York: Drivers spent an extra 5 days and 3 hours sitting in rush hour traffic which was actually 20 hours less than in 2019.
Los Angeles, California: Drivers spent an extra 4 days and 19 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 2 days and 5 hours compared to 2019.
Miami, Florida: Drivers spent an extra 4 days and 10 hours in rush hour traffic which is down 1 day and 3 hours compared to 2019.
Baton Rouge, Louisiana: Drivers spent an extra 4 days and 8 hours in rush hour traffic which was 15 hours less than 2019.
San Francisco, California: Drivers spent an extra 3 days and 16 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 2 days and 11 hours compared to 2019.
Chicago, Illinois: Drivers spent an extra 3 days and 14 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 1 day and 5 hours compared to 2019.
Honolulu, Hawaii: Drivers spent an extra 4 days and 12 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 1 day and 12 hours compared to 2019.
Seattle, Washington: Drivers spent an extra 3 days and 10 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 2 days and 8 hours compared to 2019.
Riverside, California: Drivers spent an extra 3 days and 12 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 1 day and 2 hours compared to 2019.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Drivers spent an extra 3 days and 3 hours in rush hour traffic which was down 1 day and 6 hours compared to 2019
Mark Pruner who works at Compass on Greenwich, CT R/E sent me his latest market thoughts. Inventory dropped when it should be going up as it's now the start of the spring market. We went from a peak of 158 listings two weeks ago to 145 listings this week. The reason is clear when you look at the number of contracts signed this week. Three weeks ago we had 12 contracts signed, the last two weeks we had 22 and 23 contracts signed, so 45 listings off the market. Last year at this time we were looking at 133 contracts outstanding, now we are down to 95 contracts. The drop in contracts is not due to any lack of demand, Russ and I have multiple buyers lined up waiting for the right house to come on. The drop in contracts is due to the drop in inventory; from the aforementioned 145 this week compared to 286 listings at this time in 2021. Even that was low we should be around 450 contracts at this time of year.
If you are looking get a really good agent and communicate with them regularly, be ready to move quickly. It's not impossible 95 people got a house under contract and we have already had 79 sales, so 174 buyers have found their new home.
