Opening Comments
Happy Mother’s Day to all the fantastic moms out there who enjoy the Rosen Report. In today’s note, I am going over some of the lessons I learned from my mother, Pauline. If there is an amazing tidbit you learned from your parents, let me know. The Rosen’s are going to Alley Cat in Boca for dinner tonight in their new location to celebrate.
Reminder to hit “View Entire Message” as some servers truncate the Rosen Report.
Markets
Crisis at the Border
Harvard-Black Diamond Capital Investors-Impressive
Mortgage Rates are Down
NYC area Rents Climbing
Vornado Troubles Continue
Hamptons Rental Prices Lower
Pictures of the Day-Boca Raton Weather
The South Florida heat is turning on, and playing tennis after 10 am is getting harder to do without getting heatstroke. The crowds are thinning out, and traffic slowing down. The golf courses are no longer packed, as the Snowbirds have left or are packing their bags. If you did not have school-aged kids, to me, South Florida is amazing from November through May. June is livable, but not ideal. July-October is awful with respect to heat, humidity, rain, and hurricanes. When the kids leave for college, we will be somewhere in South Florida for 7 months in a smaller house and maybe have a place in the mountains. If there are only 3 months to avoid in South Florida, it would be July, August, and September, but October is pretty brutal too. The charts don’t lie.
Life Lessons From My Mom
As many of my readers know, my father passed away when I was 5-years-old. I have two sisters, but they are almost 9 & 11 years older than me, so from 3rd grade on, it was just me and my mom. We moved from Chicago to Florida in the middle of 3rd grade and lived in a townhouse in Pembroke Pines, FL. Although my mother never attended college, she had street smarts and worked hard to provide for me. She worked as a bookkeeper in a R/E Broker office. Although I may have touched on some of these teachings in prior notes, I am going to go over her main life lessons.
A Winner Never Quits and A Quitter Never Wins-Although this is a Vince Lombardi quote, my mother drilled this into me and I did not realize until later in life it was not her own saying. If I started something, I was never allowed to quit under ANY circumstances. I believe as parents, we have become too soft and a little tough love is necessary. My daughter was the lead in the school play last year and the practices were out of control. She had the audacity to talk about quitting, and I went ballistic using my mom’s favorite line over and over. She did the show as planned and was fantastic.
If You Are Old Enough to Make Adult Decisions, You Are Old Enough To Suffer Adult Consequences-Growing up, I did not always hang with the best kids. Turns out surfers are largely burnouts who like to do drugs and party. I was never into drugs, but many of my friends were. My mom made it CRYSTAL clear to me that if I got into trouble because I did something stupid it was on me. I should not call her to bail me out of jail, as she would let me rot in there. I believed her, and fear kept me on the straight and narrow. I had to bring back my mullet from 1985. What the hell was I thinking? I now have to suffer the consequences of that awful look.
Don’t Make the Rosen Name Mud-This was a driving principle in my life. Be the best you can be at whatever you are doing, and don’t put shame to the family name. My mother helped me get a job as a busboy at the restaurant, Chubby’s Too, and I was expected to be the hardest-working busboy in the history of the restaurant industry. I had to be on time, properly dressed and work hard to make sure the Rosen family name stayed out of the dirt. As an aside, Chubby’s Too specialized in the early bird special. You had to be seated by 6pm and had your choice of ribs, chicken, salmon, potato (fries, baked or mashed), veggie, dessert (cake, pie, sundae), coffee or tea and it was $4.95. I had to cover as the host a few times and almost cried. These old ladies were brutal. My mother’s lesson reminds me of a famously entertaining Bill Russell (13 x NBA Champ) story about being the best ditch digger you can be. You can hear it here starting at 19 seconds and lasting one minute.
If You Are 5 Minutes Early, You are Late-My mother was a stickler for punctuality, and therefore I am too. I don’t believe in being fashionably late, and I think I have my mom to blame. I once made the mistake of getting to work 5 minutes late for my busboy job and she found out. You would have thought I robbed a bank. I got home from work at 11:30pm and my room was tipped upside down. She took the mattress off the bed and all my clothes out of the closet and drawers. My room looked like a tornado hit it. Being a smart-ass 15-year-old, I left it that way for a week just to piss her off. I will hand it to her; it was a clever idea and I should consider using the upside-down room trick if my kids get out of line. When I ran the trading businesses at JPM, I was at my desk by 6:15am almost every day and believe being early set the proper tone for the floor.
Handwritten Thank You Notes are the Unwritten Law-For my newest readers, you may have missed my piece on this topic which was entitled, “Handwritten Thank You Notes…..Or Else!” My mom screamed to write thank you notes the second anyone ever did anything for us. To this day, I still write notes and in the new world of text and email with dumb abbreviations for Thank You (tnx, thanx, TQ…), a handwritten note has never meant more. I do believe a couple of my jobs came to fruition due to the personal touch of a handwritten note.
Anything Is Possible with Hard Work-My mother gave me the confidence to believe in myself. Growing up as a public school kid in a 1,500 sq ft townhouse with limited means was not exactly confidence inspiring. However, my mother made it clear that if I worked hard, created value, and treated people with respect, good things would eventually come. I never thought in my wildest dreams I would have had my career, traveled the world, and met such interesting people. My mother gave me the confidence to believe in myself, and that is something that really helped me in life. Fortunately, or unfortunately, my desire to be a pro surfer never materialized and was never close to coming to fruition. Anything to get another surf picture of my 53 year-old self last month at the Ranch. I am literally without shame.
Travel and Go to the Parties, NOT the Funerals-My mom did not like to miss a party, wedding, Bar-Mitzvah, or Anniversary… and loved to travel and experience the world. If she found out the most distant cousin was having an event, she would find a way to get involved. She loved to celebrate. Three-piece suit; I was born with style.
Grab What You Can When You Can-Life throws you curve balls and this saying was meant for you to take advantage of life and when an opportunity presents itself, you better grab it. Laugh when you can as there will be plenty of time to cry later. Her tombstone reads “Grab What You Can When You Can.”
When Entertaining, Have Too Much Food-A Jewish cook’s biggest fear in life is not having enough food for people. When people come to my house for dinner, I make 50% more than what I think I need and inevitably, it ends up all gone. My Thanksgiving dinners made Mom proud. I recently entertained a group of 8 guys for a wine dinner and made a ton of food. I was convinced I would not run out and did not have enough for everyone to have 3rd helpings. My mom must have been rolling over in her grave. Sorry Mom; it won’t happen EVER again.
Nice Cars Don’t Mean Someone Has Money-Growing up with mom’s Buick or Chevy Caprice classic had me jealous of fancy cars. When I was a kid, I thought if you drove a BMW or Mercedes you would be a millionaire and I was impressed. My mother educated me on the Smoke & Mirrors people used to live well outside their means. Back then, a leased car started with the letter, “Z” on the license plate. Leasing is far more prevalent today, but back then it was less common. I always lived well within my means, as I was a saver just in case. Mom would say, “The people who appear to be rich often owe the most money on their credit cards.”
Laugh and the world laughs with you. Cry and you cry alone. I enjoy having fun and don’t take myself too seriously. The Rosen Report is meant to be informative, but entertaining. I am not upset when someone laughs with me, and my mullet picture above is the perfect example. I tell these personal stories to make people smile and brighten their day. The news in the world is so awful, I think we all need a laugh and Mom loved to laugh. When she had a high-pitched squeal laugh, it meant she would pee in her pants. I kid you not, this happened a lot. Talk about embarrassing.
Unfortunately, my mother passed away from complications from cancer after battling for almost a decade. She died in July 2008. She did make it to my wedding and was able to meet both Jack and Julia (my kids). My mom had a hand in my success and taught me about hard work and doing the right thing. Thanks, Mom. What are your life lessons learned from your parents? If I get a bunch of life lessons from readers, I will post them in a future report.
Quick Bites
Markets sold off Thursday on the heels of Disney’s 2nd Q earnings and more volatility in the Regional Bank stocks, as Pac West stock fell 30% at one point on the day (see Other Headlines for details). Initial jobless claims grew by 22,000 for the week ending May 6 to 264,000, the Department of Labor said on Thursday. The latest jobless data was the highest reading since Oct. 30, 2021. The labor data drove Treasury yields lower between 6-8bps from 2-10 year Treasuries, but sold off Friday. The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%. With the first-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, the profits of S&P 500 companies are estimated to have dropped 3.7% on average, compared to a year ago. While data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that 78% of firms surpassed forecasts, that’s less impressive than it sounds, given analysts had slashed their expectations before the season kicked off. A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. After a brief rally, oil is -13% YTD to $70/barrel, largely due to broader economic concerns. A couple of charts below show some points of concern.
I am all for legal immigration (though I would prefer “reform” that made it merit-based vs the current system - I would note Canada, Mexico, the EU and China all have merit-based intake systems). After all, my grandparents came from Canada and Poland. America takes in more lawful immigrants than any other nation in the world (per usafacts.org and the DHS Yearbook of Immigration statistics. The lawful process in the USA takes roughly 1.5 - 3 years and is explained clearly on the USA website www.USA.gov/enter-us. DHS, prior to this year, estimated that there were over 11m illegal immigrants in the USA (many, of course, are productive, working, law-abiding, etc ); a recent Yale study put the number at over 22m (insights.som.Yale.edu). I believe we are at the higher end of the range. Remember, we have 9.5mm open jobs in the US and many of them are lower-skilled labor, so there are jobs for some of these workers, but they need to go through the proper vetting process. While every Administration in the last 50 years has struggled with the problem of illegal immigration across our Southern border, it has exploded to unprecedented levels almost immediately following the Biden Administration’s assumption of power and the Executive Orders which undid all of the prior Administration’s policies. We are in the 6mm range of illegal border crossings since Biden took office. The migrants have overwhelmed schools, emergency rooms, police, fire, and other public services on the local and State level…..Who will pay for these people to live as our deficits explode and debt levels approach $32 TRILLION? We cannot take care of Americans including US Veterans. We have almost 600,000 homeless in the USA and millions more in poverty. Now that Title 42 expired Thursday what will happen at the border? Now even the “sanctuary” cities (those that decided not to cooperate with ICE), such as NYC, are themselves overrun. NYC Mayor Adams is begging for an end to the migrants coming to his city. "New York City has cared for more than 61,000 migrants over the last year — sheltering, feeding, and caring for them almost entirely on our own. In recent days, we've seen upwards of 500 people arrive each day, and we expect those numbers to grow significantly as Title 42 lifts tomorrow.” Migrants who arrived at the border on Thursday were given court dates as late as 2032 and 2035. I am sorry, this process is broken and I have zero faith that this Administration is honestly trying to fix it. This article shows homeless vets being kicked out of NY hotels to make room for migrants. I am sorry, I put an American Vet in front of migrants when it comes to food and shelter.
It’s one of the most exclusive hedge funds in the world — and even harder to get into than Harvard. In fact, you have to first be accepted to Harvard to even apply to Black Diamond Capital Investors, a student-run money-management firm at the school. “It’s honestly very similar to the recruiting process that you would go through for a bank or hedge fund or private equity fund,” one current member, a senior, told The Post. Founded in 2012, the little-known fund gives the Ivy League undergrads — who are encouraged to invest their own dough — a chance to invest money and train alongside fellow future financial titans. Black Diamond’s members have impressive instincts, with the fund outperforming the S&P 500 “by an average of 7% annually over the past five years,” according to its website, though the returns could not be independently verified. I have made it clear that I am not set on a four-year degree for many kids today. The cost of an education is so high that I am certain many should go another direction such as a vocational school. However, for those who are focused on money management, clubs like this one at Harvard would be an amazing experience and the article goes into detail. I just thought it would be great for a student to experience it and it reads as though it were like working at a real hedge fund and you then get the Black Diamond AND Harvard alumni network of it. Impressive. Personally, I generally feel these Ivy League schools are far more about the network than what you learn in school.
Other Headlines
Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as U.S. approaches debt default
An actual default would be “potentially catastrophic” for the country, Dimon told Bloomberg in a televised interview. Dimon said he expects that worst-case scenario will be avoided, however, because lawmakers will be forced to respond to growing concern.
Biden draws first red line in debt ceiling negotiations with one law as untouchable
The debt ceiling has been raised 78 times and many of those included negotiations on spending. Biden’s red line is no changes in the “Inflation Reduction Act” which is clearly misnamed. Just think of what inflation would have been if Manchin did not stop trillions of additional spending.
PacWest moves to boost borrowing capacity; shares slump
Pack West lost 9.5% in deposits the week ending May 5th with the bulk happening on the 4th & 5th. This drove the stock -23% on Thursday after a sharp rally. Again, why leave money at a Regional Bank today? Stock is -80% YTD and was $30 in 2023 and is now sub $4.5/share with a market cap of $547mm. No chance I would leave money in this bank.
Ken Griffin's Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire
Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share.
SoftBank full year 2022 earnings: Vision Fund posts $32 billion loss
How can anyone allocate a dollar to this group of “investors?” Now, Softbank is moving to more AI investments.
Elon Musk confirms Twitter CEO hire: Linda Yaccarino
He cut the TWTR staff by 80% in short order and came up with innovative ideas on how to improve the product. One of the biggest names in the Media is now on TWTR (Tucker) and the company appears to be back on track. however, it is worth a fraction of what Musk paid for it.
Cord-Cutting Hits All-Time High in Q1, as U.S. Pay-TV Subscriptions Fall to Lowest Levels Since 1992
California’s Newsom Sees Budget Deficit Deepening to $32 Billion
The projected budget deficit increased by $10bn recently. The prior two years combined saw almost a $100bn surplus on the heels of big tech. Now wealth has left, IPOs are a thing of the past, and reckless spending continues. Fiscal responsibility is needed at the state and federal levels. Note, with zero state income tax, Florida is projecting another major surplus.
More Wives Now Outearn Their Husbands. They Also Stay Together Longer.
The share of marriages with women breadwinners tripled over the last 50 years.
I applaud Licht for trying to be more balanced at CNN, but I am tired of listening to Trump’s lies. I just wish the frontrunners were not named Biden or Trump. Lots of folks at CNN are livid that Trump was given the airtime.
House Republicans release probe into Biden family finances
Oversight Committee Chair James Comer said Joe Biden's relatives had used the family name to enrich themselves, and the president was "involved." The report itself does not substantiate these claims or implicate Mr. Biden. It does not allege illegal conduct. I would like to see the details and see how deep and far this goes. However, this report does not appear to have a smoking gun showing the President was involved.
I want you to look at the pictures in the link, and tell me she should be in the Senate. She looks as though she belongs in a retirement home with 24-hour care. AGE LIMITS and COGNITIVE TESTING should be required. At 27 years old, I had shingles and missed 1.5 days of work. At 89, she has missed months and still cannot work full-time. She is not running for re-election in 2024. She should not be in office and more Democrats want her gone. Her staff will not allow her to be alone at the Capitol out of concern about what she might say to a reporter. Seriously?
Months ago when all the lies were exposed, the right thing for McCarthy to do was push to have Santos step down. Let’s bring some credibility back to DC. Everything should not be partisan. People should do the right thing because it is the right thing to do. McCarthy would have gained so much credibility even if the seat turned Blue. The bar could literally not be lower. No wonder politicians’ approval rates are on an asymptotic line approaching zero.
Former US Marine to be charged in choking death on New York subway
The system failed the deceased man, Neely. He had attacked multiple people in the past and caused serious injuries. He was arrested at least 42 times and it is believed he tried to push someone onto the tracks the day prior to his death. Over $1mm has poured in to help the vet who is accused of murder. The DA goes after a man acting in self-defense but lets career criminals walk free. What is wrong with this picture?
California Vons autistic grocery clerk fired after being assaulted three times
Yes, crimes need to have consequences, and until DA’s do their job to put criminals in jail, innocent people’s lives will be irrepressibly harmed. This clerk was assaulted three times and less than three months and been injured. Watch the short video. He has been punched and stabbed.
Lori Vallow verdict: 'Cult mom' found guilty in murders of her 2 children, husband's first wife
Death Penalty Please. What parent can murder their own children?
Matt Araiza’s case is a failure of journalism across most of sports media
I am reminded of the famous Duke Lacrosse incident where the lives of three young men were irreparably harmed after being accused of a horrific rape that never took place. I hope another team gives Araiza a chance. I want to be clear that anyone who commits sexual assault should be arrested and put in jail. However, it seems that in this case, an innocent man was accused, and I too was guilty of assuming he was a criminal without all the facts. There is a civil case coming up against Araiza.
Italian pasta prices are soaring. Rome is in crisis talks with producers
Pasta prices are up 16.5% in the last year in Italy, double the broader measure of inflation and Italians are livid.
Inside America's most expensive grocery store that people work 'three jobs' to afford
The place looks amazing, but I am far too frugal to step inside. $10.25 for wheat bread and $13.99 for water. I’ll pass.
I despise smoking, and I hope this helps break the habit.
Baby born from three people's DNA in UK first
I had no idea this was possible. The article suggests it was to prevent mitochondrial diseases.
Sex? Sexual intercourse? Neither? Teens weigh in on evolving definitions — and habits
Teens having less sex. Less teens identify as heterosexual, as it was 89% in 2015 and 75% with this study. Those who identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual climbed from 8% in 2015 to 15% today.
China and Russia are increasing their military collaboration, Japan's foreign minister warns
Real Estate
Mortgage rates have come down from the highs and you can check out Freddie Mac rates in the chart below. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan was 6.35%, down from 6.39% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The 30 yr hit 7.08% in November of 2022 for perspective. Applications for purchase mortgages have climbed, suggesting house hunters are acclimating to rates that are stuck above 6% yet down from the highs reached late last year. Many would-be buyers, however, are struggling to find anything affordable among scarce supplies of listings. Competition for what is available is pushing up prices, even in weaker West Coast markets, such as San Francisco and Seattle.
Bloomberg article entitled, “New York City-Area Rents Surge by Most in Nearly Two Decades,” which outlines sharp rent increases in the NYC area. Rents for primary residences in the New York, Jersey City and Newark, New Jersey, region rose 6.1% in the 12 months through April, the biggest increase since 2005, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Wednesday. Renters in the New York area are confronting a heated market ahead of the busiest season, often in July and August for Manhattan leases. Apartments have been flying off the market and landlords are scaling back on incentives, according to reports from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The BLS figures underscore how renters in the area are getting squeezed even as overall inflation figures showed signs of moderating in April.
As Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) enters what chairman Steve Roth described as “the eye of the economic storm,” Goldman Sachs is issuing a warning. The real estate investment trust could come to the brink of default on $2.6 billion worth of loans, analysts at the investment bank warned, as rising interest costs and other expenses squeeze its debt buffer to a razor-thin margin. A whirlwind of rising interest costs, tenant departures and half a billion dollars in expenses tied to its massive redevelopment project surrounding Penn Station could bring the REIT’s debt coverage ratio dangerously close to its limit, the analysts wrote in a May 1 note. If the coverage ratio were to drop below that limit, Vornado would breach its covenants and trigger a technical default on its corporate-level loans and line of credit. Vornado suspended its dividend recently after cutting the dividend almost 30% earlier in the year. Remember, VNO owns 20mm feet of prime NYC office properties and more than 2.4mm feet of Manhattan retail. They also own marketplaces and 2,000 residential units in NYC. VNO is a large REIT and is considered one of the best run in the country. VNO stock is -37% YTD and -62% for the past year.
The heat wave in the Hamptons is over when it comes to summer rentals, real estate brokers told On The Money. The number of available rentals in the posh Long Island enclave out East is growing, even as demand for season-long rentals has fallen – and the market is taking a hit, Susan Breitenbach, a broker at Corcoran Group, told On The Money. “Over the last few years, the market has been insane — people would offer $100,000 over asking price for a summer rental,” Breitenbach said. “Now, half my days are people calling me asking they should reduce the price of their home to rent.” One big factor is people want to travel to Europe or elsewhere after having been in the Hamptons for a few years with the pandemic. According to the article, some homes have cut rents by up to 50%.
Thanks. I remember your mom and dad well. Remember when you broke your arm skateboarding and did not want to tell Fran? We then went surfing and you almost drown? Those were the days!
Thanks so much for the kind words. Feedback has been very positive. Thanks