Madness-Maan Oh Naan-Junoon Restaurant Review
8-22-21
Opening Comments
Picture of the Day-Insane Parallel Parking Job by Me
Cembalest Piece
Madness-Maan oh Naan-Junoon Review
My View on Afghanistan
Quick Bites
Markets, Bitcoin/Treasuries/Oil, Amazon, Toyota Delays
Jobless Benefits, Musk-Humanoid Robots
Hatchet Man, Dad Prank
Virus/Vaccine
Data
Jack & Julia One Shot
Lambda Variant
Vaccine Transparency Questions
School Mask Study-CDC
Hospitalizations Rise for the Young
Real Estate
NYC Market Update
$35mm Miami House
Back to Work Snag Hit Landlords-Amazing Charts
Opening Comments
Every time I try to take any reasonable time off of the Rosen Report something blows up. It is the market, pandemic or in this case, Afghanistan. I have outlined my thoughts in a different section on the debacle unfolding before our eyes.
I will finally be back home tonight after 91 days on the road. We are on a 3pm flight to beat the storm hitting NY tomorrow. I hit send early, as I won’t make it home until later. I drove 7,800+ miles and stayed approximately 80 hotel nights. The lowpoint was Motel 6 and disappointingly, the highpoint was Homewood Suites. Jack enjoyed the summer playing a lot of golf and working with his new coaches (Jeff Smith and TD Luten). I can tell you that Jack’s swing has never looked better and now it is time to put up some lower scores in the fall/winter tournaments as he becomes comfortable with the changes. Jeff coaches numerous pro golfers including #10 in the world, Viktor Hovland. Jack is part of the junior program called, Course Kings. Lots of solid golfers are commenting on Jack’s swing and am confident significantly lower scores are on the way. Here is Jack swinging the driver with Jeff this am just prior to the flight out.
Julia loved her first foray into sleep away camp and started in-person school for the 1st time in 18 months. She is adjusting to in-person learning and enjoying the socialization of school.
Lots of new subscribers. Remember, send me story ideas. Let me know what you like and don’t agree with, as it gets my creative juices flowing. I have countless loyal followers who send me all kinds of comments, stories and ideas. Some disagree with me, while others believe I am a diety. Today’s piece has some troubling photos between the Afghan situation as well as the hatchet attack in NYC. Apologies, but they needed to be shared. Given the volume today, Quick Bites is a bit shorter than usual. I am hopeful I will have spellcheck back when I get to my desktop. Expect some typos. Apologies.
Picture of the Day
For those long-time readers, you might remember that I worked for many years valet parking cars at Calder Race Track in Miami and it paid for much of my college. As a result of parking thousands of cars, I am feel my parallel parking skills are top notch. I was in NYC and found a tight spot and decided to give it a go. As you can see in the picture (silver Chevy), it was an insane parking job. The 25 second video shows a total of 1.5” of space between the cars and I did it on my FIRST TRY. I also have witnesses who saw the entire thing and were giving me high fives. I am not sure I could do it again, but damn, this one is impressive. If Jack goes on to win 100 times on the PGA tour and has 20 majors or Julia becomes a Rhodes Scholar, I am not convinced it will be as impressive as this parallel parking job. In a funny sidebar, the next day I was parked and on the phone in my car and a woman was trying to parallel park unsuccessfully in front of me. I decided to show her how it is done. I leaned in her car and took the wheel while I was on the sidewalk and parked her car from outside of it. Yes, I am that talented in this regard only. Basically no other skills. She was so humiliated, she jokingly called me a curse word and then thanked me profusely while her friends laughed hysterically.
Cembalest’s Latest Piece-Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. A grisly update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data.
Madness-Maan Oh Naan-Junoon Restaurant Review-Food Worth Fighting Over
I have received recent reader feedback, that people want more restaurant reviews, so I will try to add more as I experience additional dining experiences. I must admit, I love food and will try most (not all) and feel I have a fairly good sense of what constitutes a solid meal. If I am being intellectually honest, Indian food is not one of my go-to meals. I have eaten at Tamarind (NYC) which is a solid Indian restaurant a handful of times over the years. However, I fell in love with a place called Junoon, which means “madness” in Urdu and many other languages.
For 9 months around 2017, we lived in the Flatiron on 24th and Junoon was located just east of 6th on 24th Street. Some evenings, when the kids went to bed, I would sit at the bar at Junoon, have a glass of wine and order an appetizer or two. WOW, it was amazing. There was a fantastic bartender there named Christian with a big handlebar mustache, despite being a young man. He was a very good mixologist and now works there on Saturday nights I am told. Junoon is known for amazing drinks as seen by the pictures below.
In August of 2017, we moved to Florida and the pandemic struck. Junoon closed and moved 100 feet east to a smaller location (1/3 the size of the original). The spiffy new digs opened in June of 2021 and my 15-year-old son, Jack, and I ate there in mid-August. Jack loves good food, but given we do not partake frequently with Indian cuisine, he was hesitant. The trepidation did not last long.
The new room is very well done, but quaint relative to the massive former digs. I have a bit of a pet peeve when I go to a nicer restaurant. I expect you to dress appropriately. No, not a suit. No, not a dress, but no, not shorts and a t-shirt or Lulu leggings. Look presentable. This ain’t McDonald’s or Chipotle. A couple people at the bar were not dressed for the occasion in my opinion (shorts and t-shirts). I am not exactly a formal person as my readers can attest, but I believe you should be respectful.
Back to the food, I ordered a bunch of plates so we could try different things. The Eggplant Chaat is crispy eggplant, raita, tamarind chutney, red onion, chaat masala. I don’t think it is good. It is outstanding and a must order. The only issue is Jack and I were fighting over it as the portion is small despite the $16 price. Given Jack desperately needs to put on a few pounds (5’11” and 119 lbs), I caved and begrudgingly gave him the last piece.
We also had the Smoked Marsala Ribs which are Charcoal smoked pork ribs, vindaloo spice rub, chaat and masala apple. We both enjoyed them, but they have a bit of heat and hard to eat with a knife and fork. The sauce was good, but left a bit of a mess. I would not order this one on a first date, but would make a heck of a statement as the sauce will be everywhere. I went through three napkins eating two ribs and was conviced I still had sauce on my face despite rubbing it raw with the napkin.
For entrees, we ordered Chettinad Lobster Rasam which is Maine lobster, black pepper, and curry leaf as well as the Murgh Lababdar or Tandoor grilled chicken, tomato sauce, and fenugreek. Both are amazing, but it gets better. You must order Naan, which is an Indian bread. We had both the garlic and Junoon spiced Naan to dip into the sauces of the lobster and chicken. I have been trying to eat less bread and really had been doing very well until the Junoon Naan came along. I am pretty sure there are some highly addictive ingredients in there because Jack and I were crushing it and wiping the bread across the little remaining sauces until there was no more. The waiter was in disbelief that we could eat that much so quickly and brought us a few more pieces of garlic naan out of sympathy. I believe I used my carb points for a month.
Junoon is not inexpensive, but you get what you pay for and it is worth it. The room, service, food, presentation and wine list are all top notch. My biggest complaint is the portion control police are around and I wish they gave a little more, as we devoured our meals. Jack wanted to go back the next night despite his initial hesitancy. They did not have pictures of all the entrees on line, but here is what the presentation looks like in general. Quite impressive.
The wine list is solid and has won the Wine Spectator, “Best of Award of Excellence.” It is fully priced, but offers a variety of selections from a myriad of countries and also have solid selections by the glass. List is not massive, but something for everyone.
Food A+
Service A
Ambiance A- Great room, disappointed with some of the attire
Wine List/Drink List A
The Afghanistan Debacle
I am hardly an expert on Afghanistan or that region for that matter, but will give you my take. I would argue 20 years, $1 trillion+ spent (some estimates far higher), thousands of lives lost, tens of thousands of maimed and or PTSD issues and it seems it was time to go or at least have a reduced presence. However, I would suggest the manner of the removal of US troops was an unmitigated disaster and could have been handled in a more seamless way resulting in less chaos. Shockingly, both the left and right media is calling out Biden, so it must be bad. I would rate the handling of this situation a D- for the Commander and Chief at this point. I do not feel the President is alone to blame. Whoever the commanders were in charge need to take responsibility. I have seen countless articles from all angles attacking Biden for how this situation was handled. I watched the Biden press conference on Afghanistan on Friday and believe the President was at best disingenious on multiple topics about the evacuation with thousands of Americans remaining behind. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told members of Congress on a conference call Friday that Americans attempting to evacuate Afghanistan have been beaten by the Taliban, directly contradicting President Biden’s assertion that U.S. citizens were not being blocked from the airport. The President had clearly stated that if an American showed a passport the Taliban let them through. AP is reporting Democratic-led congressional committees are vowing to press President Joe Biden’s administration on what went wrong as the Taliban swept to power in Afghanistan and the United States left scores of Americans and thousands who helped them over the years in grave danger. I am pleasantly surprised at the bi-partisan questioning of the President and it is a sign that this was handled incredibly poorly in my opinion. President Biden also suggested the allies were supportive of his handling of this situation. I do not believe that to be the case from what I have read.
For those long-time readers, you know my saying, “I am pulling for the pilot.” I want the President to kick ass and be a strong leader and get to the right answer. I do not wish failure on any president (Clinton, Obama, Trump, Biden) even if I don’t care for their politics. I just do not feel Biden and the US played the Afghanistan situation properly. When I get on a plane, I don’t ask the pilot for their religion or political beliefs. What do I care; I am pulling for the pilot.
I am troubled by Biden’s insistence that this mess could not have been avoided. In multiple interviews, I feel Biden crashed and burned. The pictures from Kabul are devastating. People hanging on to the plane and falling off to their deaths, throwing babies over barbed wire fences...
Thousands of Americans and allies are trapped in Kabul and surrounding cities. Do people realize that much of the defense equipment (guns, helicopters, jeeps, ammo, rocket launchers, as well as night vision goggles, military vehicles, planes and others) were left for the Taliban? This CNN article is entitled, “Rifles, Humvees and millions of rounds of ammo: Taliban celebrate their new American arsenal” The links are quite concerning as the US gave tens of billions of weaponry to Afghanistan. The Taliban has millions of rounds of ammo, helicopters, planes and vehicles. How in the hell could this have happened? Are you telling me that the American troops could not have blown it up or removed it from the region to not get in the hands of the enemy if the exit were planned better? US diplomats warned Blinken of the Taliban advance and we did nothing to prevent it? I am not the biggest fan of Lara Logan who was accused of improper journalism on a 60 Minutes Benghazi piece some years ago, but found this interview quite informative. Logan had lived in the region and seems quite knowledgeable.
I am not smart enough to know if this is Biden’s Saigon moment, but it sure seems like an epic failure on many fronts to me. What does it say about our allies and how we treat them? President Joe Biden told key allies in June that he would maintain enough of a security presence in Afghanistan to ensure they could continue to operate in the capital following the main U.S. withdrawal, a vow made before the Taliban’s rapid final push across the country, according to a British diplomatic memo seen by Bloomberg. With the Taliban prisoners freed, coupled with the military equipment gifted by the US, military equipment from China, vast resources (poppy and rare earth minerals-$1 trillion), the Taliban is a well-funded killing machine. The region is home to potentially mass amounts of lithium which is critical for EV batteries as well.
The Taliban are searching for journalists who spoke out against them and despite the “nice guy” talk, we know they are cold-blooded killers and will wreak havoc for years to come. The Taliban hate Americans and women and now have the means to pull out one hell of another terrorist attack. With the US borders wide open, my fear (I hope I am wrong) is that the mess left in Afghanistan will led to serious issues over the next few years. We will be allowing all kinds of Afghans into this country while our southern border is wide open for terrorists to enter and damage what they hate most.
I was fine with exiting the region, I just wish it was done with a bit more thought, coordination and preparation to avoid the disaster unfolding before our eyes. I do not think that is too much to ask from the most powerful nation on the planet. Remember, Trump had negotiated with the Taliban and was going to have troops out by May 1st 2021. It is not the withdrawal of troops which is concerning to me, it was the careless manner in which it was done. One reader suggested there will be more murders in Chicago this weekend than in Afghanistan. Despite my dislike of Mayor Lightfoot, I fear the murders in Kabul will be multiples larger and the Taliban is just getting started.
Quick Bites
Major U.S. stock averages rebounded Friday, but closed the week in red amid fears of the Federal Reserve pulling back its stimulus. The Dow gained 225 points, or nearly 0.7%, to 35,120. The S&P 500 added 0.8% to reach 4,441. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose about 1.2% to 14,714. All three major stock indexes finished the week lower. The Dow dipped 1.1% this week, while the S&P 500 shed nearly 0.6% and the Nasdaq moved 0.7% lower. “With Fed tapering coming while delta variant keeps spreading, the transition away from liquidity/policy regime to more mid-cycle markets means we may experience a bumpier ride ahead,” Barclays equity strategists said in a note. “Market narrative may thus turn more cautious, as concerns about peaking growth rates, delta variant and policy mistake may prove headwinds, at a time when seasonality and technicals are unfavorable.”
Bitcoin hit $49k after being as low as $29k on July 20th. The 10 year Treasury is at 1.25%, while oil is back down to $62. Oil dropped for a seventh-straight session on Friday, falling to the lowest level since May as demand fears and comments from the Federal Reserve that it will suspend its bond-buying program sent prices tumbling.
Amazon plans to open several large physical retail locations in the U.S. that will operate akin to department stores, a step to help the tech company extend its reach in sales of clothing, household items, electronics and other areas, people familiar with the matter said. The plan to launch large stores will mark a new expansion for the online-shopping pioneer into bricks-and-mortar retail, an area Amazon has long disrupted. Some of the first Amazon department stores are expected to be located in Ohio and California, the people said. The new retail spaces will be around 30,000 square feet, smaller than most department stores, which typically occupy about 100,000 square feet, and will offer items from top consumer brands. Bezos is amazing. He bankrupts countless retailers and will go in and get space for cheap and give customers choices. If I were a mall owner, I would basically give Bezos free rent as it will be a monster anchor which will breathe new life into the mall.
Japan’s largest car maker said Thursday it was cutting production in the country by 40% in September because of a shortage of semiconductors, highlighting how the scarcity is hitting even the best-prepared companies. Ford and General Motors also said this week they are scheduling more downtime at several North American factories, in part because virus-related restrictions overseas are further adding to chip-supply constraints. What does this do to already elevated car prices?
The Biden White House on Thursday said states that want to provide extra jobless benefits to the unemployed beyond a September cutoff can continue to do so by drawing on previously approved federal stimulus funds. Millions of unemployed people are set to lose their benefits on Sept. 6 when a temporary federal program put in place during the pandemic expires. The federal program provides up to $300 extra each week in jobless benefits and also allows self-employed workers to receive compensation. Before the pandemic they were never eligible. The Biden administration has determined that $350 billion in relief money allocated to states and localities in March under a $1.9 trillion stimulus package can be used to pay for unemployment benefits. In a separate story, the nationwide need for school bus drivers is expected to remain at "critical levels" over the coming months, with impacts to the industry's ability to provide consistent service stretching well into the school year, according to the National School Transportation Association. Not sure what we are trying to accomplish with paying people to not work. Paying people to stay home and play video games and smoke weed rather than working is not right. This is destroying countless small businesses and driving up wages. I do not support this anymore. Based on the article below, pretty soon, people will be replaced by robots, so you best get to work while you can.
After dominating the electric vehicle market and throwing his hat into the billionaire space race, Tesla boss Elon Musk announced the latest frontier he's aiming to conquer: humanoid robots. The irascible entrepreneur said Thursday he would have an initial prototype of an androgynous "Tesla Bot" by next year. Based on the same technology as the company's semi-autonomous vehicles, the robot will be able to perform basic repetitive tasks with the aim of eliminating the need for people to handle dangerous or boring work, Musk said at an online event on Tesla's advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Another article I read suggested these humanoid robots will replace so many workers.
We now know what it takes to no get let go without bail in NYC. If you take an ax and hit somone multiple times at an ATM it seems you are denied bail. Rape, shooting, robbery, assault, drugs… don’t seem to meet the standard to be held without bail. The video is even more disturbing than the picture. In NYC, I have felt uncomfortable getting cash countless times as homeless people are in the ATM area. I have never once seen this in Florida where people who are not customers are in the ATM area.
Dad and prankster @rhythmlessman garnered over 20 million views and thousands of comments when he posted the videos to his TikTok account. And, like this security camera footage that exposed the true culprit opening a family’s door every night, the hilarious surveillance video is cracking TikTokers up around the world! In his on-screen caption, the funny dad explains, “When you watch your son and his friends sneak out, you kinda have to F with them when they return.” In the video, we see Dad’s teenage son, Jesse, crawl in through the window — then immediately turn around the Ring camera sitting on the coffee table. (We’ll later learn something very interesting about this camera’s placement.) One after another, like a clown car in reverse, teenagers pour in through the open window, unaware of the ever-watchful dad recording their every move. Suddenly, the lights flip on, and a lifeless Alexa voice greets them. The teens freeze as many of their hands fly to cover their mouths in shock. I love this father and have much respect for his prank. Jack and Julia, don’t get any ideas or this will seem like nothing.
Virus/Vaccine
Case growth continues to slow and was +37% over the prior two weeks. Recall that as of July 24th, case growth was 172% for the prior two weeks. I had written a couple weeks ago that I felt the curve would break in early/mid September based on the UK data and still feel that is likely the case. You can see the case chart growth flattening in the chart below. If you recall, some are suggesting case growth until November. I am just not convinced absent a new mutation (see Lambda bullet below). Hospitalizations are +47% and deaths +96% for the prior two weeks. As of late July, hospitalizations were +57% and deaths +19% for the prior two week period. Deaths were down to 175/day on July 6 and are now up to 975/day.
Both Jack and Julia were vaccinated last week. Each will get one dose of Pfizer, NOT two in the recommended 21 days. I will be monitoring antibodies and will give boosters as needed. What pushed me over the edge was Delta and back to school for Julia. Her 1st three days of school saw 16 confirmed cases for perspective. Although both had sore arms, there were no other side effects. I am not suggesting one shot for kids, but wanted to be transparent with what the Rosen’s did on this subject. The negative side effects tend to happen after the 2nd dose and feel one is enough for healthy children with no co-morbidities. I spoke with a bunch of doctors and virologists on the subject and feel good about the decision. Additionally, Jill received her first shot after battling hives for 5 months due to a thyriod issue. The doctors did not want her to get vaccinated while she had hives.
At least two new COVID-19 variants have hit the United States and they could be worse than the delta variant in their infectiousness and ability to stand up to vaccines, according to a top medical authority. The lambda variant, along with another one so new it doesn’t even have a Greek letter name yet, are the causes of concern, according to Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Vaccine Research Group at the famed Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. So far, the new variant has been called B.1.621. There now are about 1,500 known cases of the lambda virus mutation in the United States, Dr. Poland said on the PIX11 Morning News. “What makes it dangerous is that it’s highly infectious and can resist some of the vaccine-induced immunity and spread easily between people,” he said.
Transparency advocates have criticised the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) decision not to hold a formal advisory committee meeting to discuss Pfizer’s application for full approval of its covid-19 vaccine. Last year the FDA said it was “committed to use an advisory committee composed of independent experts to ensure deliberations about authorisation or licensure are transparent for the public.” But in a statement, the FDA told The BMJ that it did not believe a meeting was necessary ahead of the expected granting of full approval. “The FDA has held numerous meetings of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) related to covid-19 vaccines, including a 22 October 2020 meeting to discuss, in general, the development, authorisation, and licensure of covid-19 vaccines,” an FDA spokesperson said. “The FDA also has held meetings of the VRBPAC on all three covid-19 vaccines authorised for emergency use and does not believe a meeting is needed related to this biologics license application.” To be clear, I am fully vaccinated and everyone in my family has at least one shot. My kids have taken EVERY vaccination possible including HPV, so I am hardly an anti-vax guy. Today, we have many people who do not trust the vaccine or the US government with vaccination rates just above 51%. We had the fastest vaccine approval in US history and I feel strongly as much transparency as possible is beneficial to get the proper information out there to help those questioning the vaccine to be more comfortable. Why not? What am I missing?
I previously wrote that I am fine with kids wearing masks in schools even though I do not think they give much protection. These Costco-bought crap masks which don’t fit properly coupled with the fact that kids pull them down constantly render them largely ineffective in my opinion. My daughter feels more comfortable in a mask, so she wears them. Also, her school requires it now. This article is interesting and suggests a CDC study questions the efficacy of masking children in schools. Check it out for yourself. Remember, I am not a huge believer in the CDC or WHO. I have found them to be a humiliating mess of misinformation and deceit, but found it interesting the tone of this New York Magazine article.
U.S. health officials are reviewing reports that Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine may be linked to a higher risk of a rare heart condition in younger adults than previously thought, the Washington Post reported late on Thursday, citing people familiar with the review. The review was focused on Canadian data that suggests a higher risk from the shot than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, especially in men below the age of 30, according to paper. Things like this only make the FDA story more concerning. I want transparency and understand why people are reticent to take the vaccine given all the mis-information floating around. I am vaccinated, but understand why some are questioning it. What are the long term side effects? My view was the liklihood was low and I decided to vaccinate. Hopefully, there is a public forum for questions
The pace of Covid-19 hospitalizations is surging across the US, with the rates for children and adults under 50 hitting their highest levels yet, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Every age group under 50 has surpassed its previous record of hospitalizations, which were recorded in the first half of January. The biggest increase was in adults ages 30 to 39 and children under 18, both of which were more than 30% higher than their previous peak, according to the CDC data.
Real Estate
Spoke with a NYC R/E broker who said the last 5 units sold resulted in bidding wars in apartments between $1-5mm in various parts of Manhattan. The rental market concessions are gone for the most part. In many cases, rents are back to pre-pandemic levels. The excess inventory levels from last year seem to have leveled off for both the sales and rental market. In peak COVID-19 one landlord had 200 vacancies across three building on the UWS. Right now, 5 units are available to rent and all recently came on the market in the past week.
Russell Weiner, the billionaire founder of Rockstar Energy Drink, paid more than $35 million for two waterfront properties on Pine Tree Drive in Miami Beach. The controversial owners of the Centner Academy in the Miami Design District sold the historic home at 5011 Pine Tree Drive, as well as the empty lot at 5111 Pine Tree Drive, for $17 million and $18.1 million, respectively, according to property records. The properties total nearly 3.5 acres. I spoke with a broker who felt that pre-pandemic, the property would have sold in the low 20s.
Great Bloomberg article about back to work with many good charts. I have imported some. This is going to hit the landlords hard. The spread of the delta variant has forced many U.S. employers that had been hoping to get staff back to their desks after Labor Day to delay those plans until at least October—or even next year. In Europe, where restrictions on people’s mobility have been eased in recent weeks, many employees are waiting for the end of the school holidays before they head back. In Asia, authorities have been cautious about relaxing restrictions that have helped to suppress the spread of Covid-19. The statistics reflect this August lull. Workplace activity is still far below its normal level, according to mobility data from Google, which tracks the locations of its users.
