Mandolin Miami-Charming But...
10-26-22
Opening Comments
I flew to Austin, TX on Monday afternoon out of the disgusting Miami Airport. I walked over 20 minutes to my gate. This place is in dire need of a face-lift. For the life of me, I cannot figure out who in the hell would eat ceviche at an airport. My next piece is about the Austin trip, but in short, I really enjoyed my time there. The title is likely going to be “Austin, TX-Brooklyn Vibes with a Southern Flair.”
I flew back to Miami Wednesday am and left me with limited time, so I presume I missed some stories today. I did not have time for a podcast recording today, but the next one on Sunday come back with a little different than the prior ones. Substack crashed on me a couple times today, so I may have a mistake I did not catch.
Video of the Day-Transgender Sports Incident
Mandolin Miami-Charming But…
Quick Bites
Markets
Corporate Credit Concerns/JPM Pinto on Recession
National Test Scores-DISAPPOINTING
Censorship
New UK PM
NY Gubernatorial Debate and PA Senate Debate
Other Headlines
Crime Headlines
Real Estate
Housing Prices
Rent Declines
Fortunate Article with Great Charts
Virus/Vaccine
Video of the Day-Transgender Sports Incident
I have consistently been critical of the transgender sports situation where biologically born males compete against females. I feel it is unfair at best and unsafe at worst. I wrote extensively about Lia Thomas, the UPenn swimmer who was born male and competed against females, winning a national championship. Mind you, as a male swimmer, he was not a top competitor. After he transitioned, she became a national champion and record holder. We have seen biological males compete in MMA against women and other sports as well. This video (watch 10 seconds), shows a North Carolina transgender high school student slamming a volleyball into the face of a biological girl and causing serious injury. The injured girl still has concussion symptoms and vision issues. I may be wrong, but I am not aware of any sport which requires physical strength where women are faster or stronger than men. I feel it is unfair to the girls competing and unsafe to allow this to continue. Watch the video and you tell me. Check out Lia Thomas towering over her competition at nationals. Note, she never won nationals as a man. Check out the 3rd place finishers look towards Thomas.
Mandolin Miami-Charming But…
I feel expectations management has a big impact on what you deem as your ultimate experience. If you go in with low expectations, generally, you have a better experience than feared. However, if you go into something which huge expectations, it is hard for the experience to meet your lofty requirements. That was the case for me and Mandolin. I had heard from a dozen people on how it was a life-changing food fest and went in expecting the moon and stars. But I was a little disappointed. Getting a reservation at Mandolin is not an easy task, as it is one of the harder places to gain entry. I understand why, but think the food slightly underwhelmed. The website for Mandolin is here.
The experience is fun, and the ambiance can best be described as charming. Seating is largely outside, and they have tarps the staff can extend if it rains. The setting is a strong point of the experience, despite the fact that it is just a couple blocks away from the heart of the Design District.
The food is good, and the menu is an interesting combination of Greek and Turkish cuisine. However, it is not a top Greek experience for me. Don’t even think about comparing the food to a great Greek in NYC like Milos, Plyos, Periyali or others, but the food is good enough. The prices are fair relative to the higher-end dining experience at Milos, but the food is not as good.
One measure I use for Greek food greatness are the spreads. I am a lover of tzatzki, taramasalata and other spreads. I did like the tzatzki as seen below on the right. The nice thing about the service is they let you mix the spreads, so I went with tzatzki, hummus and eggplant and all were solid, but did not see taramasalata on the menu. When I have my spreads, I prefer warm, fresh pita bread and they gave cold bread in a nice, small bag, which proved to be a bit filling.
The fried calamari with almond tarter dip missed the mark, as it was over-salted. It is a rarity that my family would leave one piece of calamari on the table, and it was only half-eaten due to the salt factor.
To me, the best appetizer was the Ali Nazik, which is ground lamb over smoked eggplant yogurt. However, I would have preferred warm pita to use to eat it.
For entrees, my daughter, Julia, had the chicken kebab with orzo pilaf and maroulosalta. She enjoyed it, and it was presented well. The fries on the side were amazing.
My son, Jack, had the lamb chops which he enjoyed, but felt there was quite a bit of fat on parts and left more on his plate than I thought he would.
I ate the spicy lamb kebab of ground beef and lamb with onion, parsley, sumac and Greek yogurt. I thought it was quite good and would get it again. However, I ate too much bread with the dipping sauces, and I was full.
My wife, Jill, had the octopus for her main dish, but it was an appetizer. She loved it.
Overall, the prices were fair and the ambiance stole the show. It is quite casual, and people were in shorts and T-shirts. I wore a long sleeve shirt and was among the most dressed in the place. The food is good-but not outstanding-and I would 100% return, assuming we can get in again. The wine list was a bit weak in my opinion. The service was snappy. I think it would be a great lunch place and hear they pack them in during the day. They were out of a handful of dishes despite a 6:30pm reservation.
Food-B+
Service-A
Ambiance-A+
Wine List-B-
Price-Reasonable relative to the insanity. $350 for 4 people with one glass of wine. Four people at Milos would be at least double the price.
Quick Bites
The markets have been resilient and performed quite well over the past week. Wednesday saw some volatility after disappointing tech earnings which continued after the close today. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 slid Wednesday, with both indexes snapping three-day winning streaks, as traders assessed disappointing earnings from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet.
The Nasdaq dropped 2.04%, to close at 10,971. The S&P 500 lost 0.74%, ending at 3,831. The 30-stock Dow gained 2.37 points, roughly flat for the day and ending at 31,839.11. Alphabet missed and the stock was -8% at one point on Wednesday. Total growth was 6%, the slowest rate since 2013. Microsoft beat on earnings, but cloud revenue missed and the stock was -2% on the earnings. After the close Meta disappointed and the stock fell 16% and is now -68% YTD. Meta reported a second straight quarterly revenue decline and is forecasting another drop in the fourth quarter. The company’s Reality Labs division, which houses its VR headsets, lost over $9 billion in the first three quarters. Clearly, slowing ad spending hit the stock as well. After hitting 4.61% on 10/20, the 2-Year Treasury has rallied back down to 4.41%. I believe the Fed goes another 125bps this year (market predicting 100% chance) and either pauses or makes some kind of dovish statements and it appears the market is starting to feel that way with the moves in the front-end. Oil rallied $3/barrel to close over $88 and despite the aggressive moves by the administration regarding the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, oil is not cooperating.
Two interesting articles which show concern about markets. Corporate credit conditions are worsening, with the last of three key measures now “flashing red,” according to a traffic-light system used by Janus Henderson Investors. The outlook for cash flow and earnings was downgraded from amber in the third quarter, the $300 billion asset manager said on Monday. The other two measures -- access to capital and debt load -- were already red. Conditions are deteriorating globally as central banks around the world raise interest rates to try to reign in inflation, pushing the cost of refinancing debt to a record. The ability of companies to make money and service their debt are eroding as economic risks rise, but there’s no imminent risk of a crisis, the report said. While there is a growing chorus of voices who say that the Federal Reserve should slow or halt its rate increases, JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto is not in that camp. “I think putting inflation back in a box is very important,” Pinto told CNBC in an interview. “If it causes a slightly deeper recession for a period of time, that is the price we have to pay.” “I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of the market yet,” he said, adding that corporate earnings expectations were still too high. I reported to Pinto for about 18 months while at JPM. He is a very good risk manager and is pictured below.
I had written recently about lower scores for students and partially blamed pandemic related lockdowns and school closures. Here is another disappointing article from CNN on the topic of 4th and 8th grade students. Fourth- and eighth-graders fell behind in reading and had the largest ever decline in math, according to a national educational assessment showing the devastating effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on America’s children. The alarming findings are based on the National Assessment of Educational Progress reading and math exams, often called the “Nation’s Report Card” and conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics, a branch of the Education Department. It was the largest decline in three years since the first test in 1990. No state or large urban district showed improvements in math, the report said. There are so many costs for the lockdowns. We failed our children in an effort to stem the pandemic. When people spoke up about it, they were cancelled by Facebook, Twitter, Google…The numbers below are national and NY proficiency for 4th and 8th graders in math and reading. What a disaster. NY is largely behind the national average. I am quite concerned about the #s with 20-30% of students being proficient in math and reading.
This is a concerning article about censorship and government agency involved. A little-noticed federal lawsuit, Missouri v. Biden, is uncovering astonishing evidence of an entrenched censorship scheme. So far, 67 officials or agencies — including the FBI — have been accused in the lawsuit of violating the First Amendment by pressuring Facebook, Twitter and Google to censor users for alleged misinformation or disinformation. The censorship related to alleged “misinformation” about pandemic lockdowns, vaccines and COVID-19, and included material from the esteemed infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists associated with the Great Barrington Declaration, which proved over time to be correct and eventually much of which was adopted as official policy by the CDC. I don’t care where you sit politically. You should be concerned about such censorship. Please check out this link and take the time to read the allegations. These assertions are quite concerning.
Rishi Sunak on Tuesday became the U.K.’s third prime minister of the year following a meeting with King Charles III. “Our country is facing a profound economic crisis. The aftermath of Covid still lingers, Putin’s war in Ukraine has destabilized energy markets and supply chains the world over.” “I will place economic stability and confidence at the heart of the government’s agenda. This will mean difficult decisions to come. But you saw me during Covid doing everything I could to protect people and businesses with schemes like furlough. There are always limits, more so than ever, but I promise you this, I will bring that same compassion to the challenges we face today.” The 10-year Gilt hit 4.51% a month ago and is down to 3.58% now, so the market is trending in the right direction.
I was travelling and unable to watch the entirety of both the NY Governor Debate and the Pennsylvania Senate debate, but caught the highlights and read a dozen articles. These are close races where the Republicans are gaining ground in recent weeks. On the gubernatorial debate, the drama was around crime, and Hochul pushed on Zeldin’s support of Trump. I did not care for Hochul’s response on crime when Zeldin pushed her to talk about consequences for criminals and Hochul said, “I don’t know why it’s “so important to you.” Overall, both candidates bickered a bit and make some good points. On the Senate debate, Fetterman, to me, looked nervous and stumbled quite a few of the answers despite having a teleprompter to aid in his comprehension. This is understandable given the severity of his recent stroke, but to me highlighted the fact that he is not in the condition for the job. Many Democrats were upset that his team allowed him to debate. I am not speaking about their beliefs on issues, only the performance on the debate and it was not close in my opinion, as Fetterman looked lost and confused. Many left leaning media outlets called out Fetterman’s performance. I just don’t see how someone can vote for him in good conscience after that debate, and Fetterman refused to disclose medical records on his stroke. His fracking answer was incoherent. However, The Philadelphia Inquier’s editorial writers, columnists and contributors collectively thought Fetterman won the debate. The bias must stop. The abortion comments by Oz will definitely alienate the left-leaning voters. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight Polling now has the Senate as a “Dead Heat.”
Other Headlines
Inflation is dominating the conversation on earnings calls. Here’s what execs are saying
“If your deficit projection starts to get out of control and your real interest rates start to rise rapidly, you can get into a kind of doom loop.”
Yellen warns of ‘dangerous and volatile environment’ as she pledges to bolster Treasury market
Chamath Palihapitiya blames the Fed for ‘perverted’ market conditions that benefitted him
Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show
Musk has pledged to close the Twitter deal by Friday. I am watching the loans/bonds to see how big of a hit the banks take to sell down the underwritten debt.
Coca-Cola raises full-year outlook as earnings beat expectations
Comments from Peter Boockvar-The strong dollar clipped revenue by 800 bps. Of the 16% revenue growth ex FX (organic), 12 points of that was price and 4 unit case volume which is better than some of its peers.
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks drop after Beijing's power reshuffle makes the market 'uninvestable'
Crown Prince Mocks Biden As Mentally Challenged Amid Crashing US-Saudi Relations
Biden has had so many blunders. There is an Australian news show which seems to make fun of Biden’s gaffes regularly. The Saudi Energy Minister also crushed the US Energy policy.
Bad energy policy will put America behind the 8-ball. We need to do better.
Herschel Walker to face new allegations from woman who says he drove her to abortion clinic
This is yet another election with two awful choices. We need better candidates in America.
Adidas terminates partnership with Ye following rapper’s antisemitic remarks
More good news about businesses terminating relationships with the anti-Semite. I hope his 15 minutes of fame are up and never hear from him again. I believe JPM, Balenciaga, Adidas and Gap have all moved on from Kanye. I applaud them.
China tops U.S. for first time in this ranking of world's 'best' universities
German climate activists toss mashed potatoes at $110M Monet painting
These idiots are ruining incredibly important and valuable art and will damage the experience for the rest of us. I expect art will be forced to be behind glass as these media seekers become more prevalent. Serious jail time should result.
How many got through the porous border? We need a better border solution.
Mississippi River has dropped to record-low levels amid severe drought
‘World’s dirtiest man’ dies in Iran at 94 a few months after first wash
Did not shower for more than 50 years ate road kill and smoked a pipe with animal excrement. Lived until 94. How is this possible?
Crime Headlines
14-year-old girl stabbed on NYC train in latest subway violence
Career criminal, who's own family knows he's a menace, busted for NYC subway shove
62-year-old falls onto subway tracks in NYC during random attack
NYC hot spots cut hours as crime, staff shortages eat away at business
Another example of crime taking a bite out of the Big Apple.
Queens judge releases Haralabos Panagiotopoulos, accused of assaulting 3 cops
Not the first time he assaulted officers. People need to think about who they vote for in elections for governor, mayor, DA… The lack of consequences for bad acts is not working.
‘Brutal’ attack on pregnant woman at Publix ends when witness pulls gun, Florida cops say
I read the shooter had graduated recently, considered himself a loner and had 600 rounds of ammo.
Squatters move into Maryland home on same day couple buys it — and won’t leave
Real Estate
From Peter Boockvar. According to S&P CoreLogic, home prices rose 13% y/o/y in August, a downshift from the 15.6% pace seen in July. It’s the 5th straight month of deceleration and AGAIN, the only question is to what extent does this continue. Because of what will still be limited supply of existing homes (in contrast to new ones) with many wanting to hold on to their 3%ish type mortgage, it will be the number of transactions and everything associated with a move in/out that suffer the most in this housing recession. The plus side here is the slow down and possible price declines in some markets can help to mitigate the 7% sticker shock mortgage for many first time buyers. The sunbelt cities continue to drive the price gains with Miami, Tampa, Charlotte, Dallas and Atlanta leading the way. The price gain laggards were San Francisco, DC, Minneapolis, Portland and Detroit.
We have seen cracks in housing prices and sales and now are starting to see small declines in rents after a long period of rising rents. In October, the median rent for a one- and two-bedroom apartment fell by .08 and .07 percent from September, respectively — the first time in two years both metrics have posted declines, according to the rental platform Zumper. The drops come as more than half of the 100 most populous metro areas Zumper tracks saw month-over-month declines in median rent. Prices either fell or were flat in 9 of the 10 most expensive cities. In the New York metro area, which had the highest median rent last year, the metric fell 2.3 percent from September to October. San Francisco, which had the second highest rents last year, the median posted a 2.6 percent drop this month — falling behind Boston.
Interesting Fortune article on housing. The 2nd chart is the change in Mortgage Rates Year over Year. Amazing. It suggests last week, the 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.32%. Housing market activity is crashing—and it threatens to push the U.S. into recession just like it did in 1981 and 2008
These are the most popular neighborhoods in New York City—and the average rent among them is $3,377
I thought this Bloomberg chart showing Euro-Area Mortgage demand was interesting. Clearly, rising rates, inflation, energy disaster, UK political issues and the Ukraine War.
Virus/Vaccine
