Opening Comments
My last note was about my 2024 mistakes and 2025 goals. The most opened links were the biggest ways wine will change in 2025 and the rich skiers slam luxury resorts over 3-hour lines story.
My now 19-year-old son, Jack, was incredibly sick last week. He went to NYC and came back with chills, a fever, a sore throat, and a loss of appetite – but thankfully, no stomach bug. He had the night sweats so badly that his clothes were soaked. He tested negative for flu, norovirus, COVID, and anything else they tested him for. He never misses school, but he ended up missing the entire week because of his condition. His school has been riddled with illness since the return from the holidays.
On the inflation front, I went to get a car wash and vacuum the inside. The woman told me it was $51.99. It was a drive through car wash machine. I pulled away in disgust. Are you kidding me? The name of the place is Miracle Car Wash. It will be a miracle if I pay someone $52 to wash my car.
Markets
Politicians & Hedge Fund Returns
Plane Struck Object at 27,000 Feet
$1.3mm Tuna-Sadly Not Mine
Hudson Valley Mansion
State Population Changes
Best Cities to Buy a Home from Under $250k
Video of the Day
Mavericks is in California and can hold very large waves. A recent storm was all the rage in the surfing community with massive waves. A 23-year-old Californian, Allesandro Slebir, may have broken the record for the largest wave ever surfed. Check it out.
Musk-Man or Machine?
First and foremost, I am a fan of Elon Musk. I believe he’s the most influential person in the world today, given his business ventures and his position as the wealthiest individual on the planet, with a lead of nearly $200 billion.
His brilliance and engineering prowess are legendary, and he has built massive companies worth almost $2 trillion dollars (SpaceX alone is valued at $350bn). He is basically is doing NASA’s job. His recent rocket launch and landing back on the launch pad nearly brought me to tears. Under Starlink (subsidiary of SpaceX), Musk is doing amazing things by providing high speed internet access to rural areas. He has helped during major catastrophes as well as given aid to Ukraine through Starlink.
Musk sells approximately 50% of the EVs sold in the US and recently unveiled a new robotaxi. Tesla is collecting an insane amount of data from the cars and produces millions of batteries each year.
He is pushing the boundaries in all his companies, and his purchase of Twitter made a huge impact on the election. After buying Twitter, he fired 80% of the staff (6000+ people) and his critics said the company would collapse. He showed how bloated the staff had become, and other major tech companies followed suit. At $44bn, he massively overpaid for Twitter. It is worth less than half that today with Fidelity valuing it even lower.
After seeding Open AI and having a falling out with Sam Altman, he founded yet another company, X-AI, in the artificial intelligence space and raised $5bn at a $50bn valuation in short order. OpenAi is valued at $157bn.
With his Neuralink Company, Musk is inserting chips into animal and human brains to aid people with paralysis among other issues. It is very early stages, but the idea is incredible. Last valuation approximately $8bn.
Through the Boring Company, Musk plans to help alleviate traffic by building tunnels and high speed rails underground. For example, the Las Vegas Loop project will take people 4 minutes what can take 30 minutes in traffic. Let’s not forget the Boring flamethrower!
He entered the political arena backing Trump and donated $277mm to help him get elected. Musk is running the Department of Government Efficiency with Ramaswamy and claims to be able to cut as much as $2 trillion from the $7.3 trillion budget (as unlikely as I believe that is). He has been vocal on many issues in US politics including immigration, visas, and spending bills.
Musk has also joined the fray in European politics on topics including immigration, free speech, supporting the AfD in Germany, denouncing judges in Italy, and slamming the European Commission. Because of Musk’s Tweet regarding the systemic rape of children largely by Pakistani’s in the UK, I started writing about it as well. If not for Musk, I would never have known the story. He has become involved with commentary on Ukraine, Canada, Australia, Ireland, Romana, Denmark/Greenland, Netherlands, Venezuela, and Finland as well.
I have been writing for years that Musk is spread too thin, and I have questioned his ability to physically be everywhere and do everything. Shareholders should be concerned about Musk’s ability to continue to juggle his ever-growing list of companies and outside activities. Tesla stock has been on a tear post election but missed on 4th quarter deliveries with its first yearly sales decline.
The final straw for me was reading an article about a video game called Diablo IV. I don’t play video games and had never heard of it. Apparently, Musk is a top player in the WORLD. Major gamers suggest that reaching that level of skill requires constant practice and play How in the hell does Elon Musk have countless hours to play video games? Some gamers are accusing Musk of cheating and using other gamers to play in his place to improve his rankings.
Musk, your global impact is undeniable. You are a hero to many and you are literally changing the world. I just cannot comprehend how you have the time to manage all these companies, projects, interests, 12 kids, politics, DOGE, video games, European interests and more. A recent article suggests Musk is considering buying English soccer club, Liverpool. Please stop and be sure to focus on what is on your plate. I know you are now sleeping up to six hours each night, but don’t burn yourself out. It is physically impossible to continue at this pace. By the way, if you want a right-hand man to help you on your endeavors, I am available.
I am beginning to question if you are even human. Could we be dealing with Musk, the robot or alien? Brother, if you start one more company, I am going to demand a DNA test. If you are an alien, can you have your alien friends abduct me so I can write about it?
People have suggested Musk run for President, but he cannot as he was born in South Africa and the US Constitution requires you to be a natural-born citizen of the USA.
Quick Bites
Stocks plunged on Friday after a hot jobs report dampened Wall Street’s expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, while economists polled by Dow Jones expected to see an increase of 155,000. The unemployment rate, which was projected to remain at 4.2%, fell to 4.1% during the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked to its highest level since late 2023 after the report. Stocks took another leg lower on Friday after The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index signaled concern on the inflation front. The S&P was down as much as 111 points at the low before recovering to finish -1.54% or 91 points. The Russell 2000 was the big underperformer on the day, finishing -2.17%. The S&P has now given up almost all the post-election day gains and is just +.75% since 11/5/24. The last four elections saw the S&P +4% or more between election day and inauguration day according to CNBC. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are down just less than 1% YTD. The 10-year yield is now 4.77% or 115bps higher than prior to the September rate cut driven by inflation concerns and the lower likelihood of rate cuts in 2025. The market is now basically predicting one cut in 2025. Oil jumped 3.5% to $76.5/barrel on Friday after sweeping sanctions on Russian oil.
I have been extremely critical of politicians and Fed officials engaging in active stock trading, often using inside information. It is absolutely ridiculous. The 2024 trading results for politicians and many hedge funds are now out. It is interesting to see that many politicians, who should not have the time to trade and analyze companies given their day job, handily beat the market. Although both parties are at fault, there are more top-performing Republicans than Democrats. Many outperformed top hedge funds. Many of the Tiger Cubs (Julian Robinson protegees did well with many funds listed in this link. The 2nd chart has some of the hedge fund returns from the article. This article also shows some top and bottom performing funds.
The rise of drones is concerning. It is not confirmed what hit the engine of the plane, but a drone make sense. Given the height, it would need to be a military type quality drone. The FAA confirmed to AIN that a Gulfstream G550 experienced a midair collision with a mysterious object at FL270 in Miami airspace on December 11 during a flight from Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (KFXE) to New York’s Westchester County Airport (KHPN). According to the FAA statement, the twinjet diverted to, and landed safely at, Palm Beach International Airport (KPBI) “after the pilot reported striking an object in Miami airspace.” One of the G550’s engines failed after the encounter with “an unidentified metallic object…at approximately 27,000 feet. “We can largely eliminate the possibility of common objects because: a weather balloon would have been transponding; this altitude is too high for hobby drones and illegal for any drone; there is no biological indicator of a bird strike; [and] video of the engine shows metal damage.” In another incident, a “scooper” plane used to fight fires in LA was hit by a drone and is out of service. Something needs to be done to prevent these incidents
Readers seem to like my fishing pictures, and I was sent this story about a bluefin tuna that sold for $1.3mm in Tokyo. The 608-pound fish, equivalent in weight to a typical male grizzly bear, was caught off the coast of Oma in northern Japan’s Aomori prefecture on Saturday morning. The fish was sold to a Michelin-starred Japanese sushi restaurant chain. Oma tuna, a form of Pacific bluefin, is highly prized by sushi restaurateurs as the “black diamond” of tuna fish. A diet of squid and fatty saury fish, combined with its colder-water habitat, gives the tuna a unique balance of fat that makes it a favored sashimi ingredient. Sadly, my tuna are never worth $1.3mm, but I did catch my first bluefin in 2024.
California Fires
I have many readers in the LA area and have been speaking with with an LA firefighter regularly. The Palisades fire is 11% contained and Eaton is 15% contained. The total fires have burned burned 39,000 acres, destroyed over 12,300 structures, caused 16 deaths and displaced over 200k people. The forecast for damages in LA fires tripled to $150B — costliest blaze in US history. If the fires continue to burn, the damages could surpass Hurricane Katrina’s $186b in 2005. These numbers are the total economic damage including direct and indirect losses. The good news is Thursday, the winds died down and planes and helicopters were able to be used. However, Saturday, a headline showed “Significant” Palisades fire flare-up forces evacuations in LA neighborhoods as blaze heads east toward Bel Air. Brentwood and Encino are also on alert and shut part of the 405 Freeway as winds shifted again and are forecast to gain in strength (gusts up to 65mph Saturday night). My friend was evacuated from Beverly Hills Saturday after losing her home in Pacific Palisades. Biden has pledged federal support to California.
There are a lot of stories about LA running out of water, $750k/yr to the person in charge of fire hydrants, cutting the fire department budget, woke hirings, and sending firefighting equipment to Ukraine. This article suggest Janisse Quinones (water chief) knew about the empty reservoir and broken hydrants for months. This video has firefighters using women’s purses filled with water to put out flames. California is beyond screwed and only has leadership and poor policies to blame. The Governor, Mayor, Fire Chief and many others were negligent. Massive budget deficits forced cuts that ended up costing tens of billions of dollars. Woke policies and vaccine mandates did further damage to the fire fighter community as well. Newsom, cut the fire budget by $100mm months before the fires. I had written extensively that I felt Newsom was unfit for Governor or President based on his awful track record of destroying California, and these fires should put the final nails into his political coffin. How could you vote for him for President after how he is leaving California?
California was already under pressure with natural disasters, high cost of living, high taxes, overly woke policies, traffic, homeless, crime, and a wealth exodus. I believe these fires can be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Many of my readers are so frustrated that they want out of LA. Of note, January is one of the lightest months for fires historically, yet we have major fires burning. The police are investigating, but the current origin is unknown. I will be surprised if arson was not involved. One person was arrested for arson in the Kenneth fire. There is a scramble to find alternative housing for those who are displaced. LA officials are already discussing price gouging for rentals and goods and threatening to charge those violating the law. I can only imagine what people will need to pay to find a home or apartment to rent. Many schools were destroyed. Where will kids go to get an education considering families will be spread far and wide? This short video from Thursday afternoon is devastating and shows destruction of Pacific Palisades. We are seeing more celebrities turn on woke policies and poor leadership. Looting is discussed in this link. The rebuild will take many many years. Much of the Palisades was destroyed: homes, schools, shopping, infrastructure…
A month before fires, L.A. fire chief warned budget cuts were hampering emergency response
The Pacific Palisades reservoir was EMPTY AND OFFLINE when the firestorm exploded, per LA Times
Red flag warning points to new wildfire dangers in Southern California, lasts until Wednesday eve
Hollywood stars blast State Farm for leaving thousands without coverage amid Los Angeles fires
Some people received cancel notices December 23rd but were given 3 months to find new coverage.
Insurance commissioner issues moratorium on home policy cancellations in fire zones
A ‘firenado’ was just spotted near the 405 freeway in Los Angeles.
DeSantis calls for media to hold Democratic California leaders accountable for wildfires
How a ‘warrior’ brain surgeon saved his Malibu street from wildfires and looters
Election/Politics
In exclusive sit-down, Biden reveals his biggest regret and the compliment Trump gave him
DELUSIONAL. His biggest regret is failing to combat disinformation. No mention of the border disaster, massive deficits, inflation, weaponization of agencies, Afghanistan, foreign policy, DEI push, regulation… Come on, man!
Mar-a-Lago meetings to include an offer on SALT cap
I do not think the SALT deductions should change. States should run more efficiently. Note the deficits in the states with the highest taxes.
Trump sentenced to penalty-free 'unconditional discharge' in hush money case
Right outcome for what I thought was a weak case that should have never been prosecuted. There were other cases that seemed stronger to me, and many legal scholars agree.
Erik Prince Reveals Trump Was Closer To Buying Greenland Than Previously Known
This would be a huge win for America given the huge mineral deposits in Greenland. The idea as outlined in the article has the US spending all the money and splitting the profit 50/50 with Denmark. It cost Denmark billions each year to manage Greenland and the US would cover the costs. This article suggest Greenland leaders want to speak with Trump.
Senate advances 'Laken Riley Act' with bipartisan support, setting up final vote
The upper chamber cleared the vote 84 to 9. If passed, the act would mandate the detention of illegal immigrants charged with an array of crimes. How the hell do you vote against this bill?
Zuckerberg tells Rogan Biden admin would 'scream' and 'curse' at his employees, demanding censorship
Nothing to see here folks. The government intervening to influence outcomes. So many were cancelled by this administration. Ridiculous.
Foreign leaders desperately jockeying for invite to Trump’s inauguration: ‘They’re all going crazy’
How Argentina’s Javier Milei got governing right — and proved the elites wrong
Middle East
Watch this short video. This is what the Jews are fighting. People who have no regard for life and brag about killing Jews. Hamas “journalist” Ahlam Tamimi explains how she pleased Allah by blowing up Jews in Jerusalem after using her journalist ID to spy inside Israel and smuggle the suicide bomber into a restaurant. She is not in jail.
Bodies of Hamas hostages found in Gaza tunnel ID’d as father and son kidnapped from kibbutz
'Behead' and 'bury' Jews: Texas man arrested after threatening email to Jewish funeral home
Other Headlines
Janet Yellen: Covid stimulus may have contributed ‘a little bit’ to inflation
Yellen has a PhD (Yale) and, after years of telling us inflation was transitory, now concludes that awful free money policies “may” have contributed to inflation? Seriously?
41% of companies worldwide plan to reduce workforces by 2030 due to AI
TikTok ban likely to be upheld by Supreme Court, putting pressure on Trump
I want a ban. It is toxic and controlled by China.
Germany Faces Highest Number Of Bankruptcies Since Great Financial Crisis
Thank the leaders for awful policies.
One of my 2025 calls was a move away from DEI/ESG, and Blackrock just dropped the Net-Zero Asset Managers initiative.
US newspapers are deleting old crime stories, offering subjects a ‘clean slate’
There is a massive cover up going on in the UK with immigrants raping kids. This is blowing up and Musk is all over it.
John in Lancashire says his daughter was gang raped by Pakistani groomers in Oldham when only 13-years-old. "I phoned the police, a police constable told me to let it go, otherwise I'll get arrested for being racist."
Nothing like secure borders.
Mugger beats NYC food vendor with metal pipe, breaks his teeth, in brutal $3.5K robbery
Until there are consequences for crime and bad people are taken off the streets, there is no end in sight for these horrific attacks.
NY saw whopping 53% spike in homelessness in 2024 — largely due to migrants in NYC shelters
What the hell is wrong with people?
Meta terminates its DEI programs days before Trump inauguration
DEI is dead and was one of my calls for 2025 in my projections from last week. Hire based on merit. I have written about that topic for four years. In October 2021, I wrote a piece called, “The World Has Gone Mad” about merit and the absurdity of aggressive DEI programs. I was cancelled and received much hate mail on the heels of my newsletter. You owe it to your shareholders and employees to hire the best candidate. If you hire solely on diversity, you are hurting your company. If the best candidate is LGBTQ, Black, Yellow, or Green, hire them. If the best candidate is a White male who is 53 years old, hire him. Hire the best and your company has a far better chance of success. Meta is “totally disbanding” its equity and inclusion programs. Memo here.
China’s emissions have now caused more global warming than EU
I am for a cleaner environment, but we must address China and India.
Used vehicle prices expected to continue to stabilize in 2025
Good article with advice on how to email more efficiently.
I was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer at 44 — the 5 symptoms I ignored
My mother died of colon cancer. This is no joke.
CES 2025: Robot bartenders, flying cars, automaton cats and dogs lead way
Flight crew ‘astonished’ to see glowing objects ‘zig-zagging’ at 45K feet
The link has a lot of detail.
Real Estate
I was blown away by the house in the WSJ article, “Once Asking $45 Million, a Hudson Valley Mansion Relists for a Fraction of the Price.” When it first hit the market in 2021 for eye-watering $45 million, Monica and Jacob Frydman’s riverfront home in the Hudson Valley was lauded as a feat of modern engineering. Known as Ledgerock, the roughly 15,000-square-foot residence hugs the bank of the Hudson River, with a travertine patio that hovers just above the water. More than three years later, however, the limestone-and-glass house is coming back on the market for $11.25 million, a quarter of the original price. The house is stunning. I would far rather live here for $10mm than live in the Hamptons, where the same house would cost over $100mm. This house is amazing. 11 acre modern with a guest house and on the water. I’ll take it. The replacement cost is $30mm+. Here is the listing.
Check out this story of moves in the US. Why? Note the common themes with states gaining and losing population. The US Census Bureau’s most recent interstate migration estimates show interstate moves that occurred between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024. For the second year in a row, South Carolina saw the greatest population growth attributable to net inbound domestic migration (1.26 percent). Other states that saw significant domestic migration-related population growth were Idaho (0.83%), Delaware (0.79%), North Carolina (0.76%), and Tennessee (0.68%). At the other end of the spectrum, Hawaii lost the greatest share of its population to other states (0.65%). Not far behind were New York and California, which each lost 0.61% of their residents to other states, followed by Alaska (0.51%) and Illinois (0.44%).
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #752 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
