My 38 Special Delivery
7-29-26
Opening Comments
My last note was about the importance of work ethic as my mother taught to me. The most opened links were Trump’s Correspondent’s Dinner attack of Kaitlan Collins and the healthy trend that is working against your body.
Sending from a Delta flight from SLC to JFK. Spotty Wifi. Wanted to wait until Fed, but could have missed some afternoon news. Had to send a little early while I still had WiFi. Heading to Hamptons tonight until Aug 11th. Padel anyone?
Markets
Oil Market Explained
Executive Perks
Musk on Impact of AI on Civilization
Two Concerning Socialist Stories Around Education
Seattle’s Bad Policies and the Impact
R/E Tax Initiatives on Ballots in 13 States
Video of the Day-Bill Maher on Mamdani and Communism
Brilliant Bill Maher take on Mamdani and his communist colleagues. He crushes Cea Weaver, who was hired by Mamdani to “protect tenants.” Here are some if her thoughts: If you don’t believe in the government’s sacred right to seize private property, it’s over.” She claims, “home ownership is racist.” “Elect more communists.” Let’s not forget she said, “Private property, especially home ownership is a weapon of white supremacy.” This is sadly the direction of the country and major cities. When you elect communists, you have consequences that will last decades. Remember, Maher is a Democrat who calls balls and strikes. I love America and am proud and fortunate to be American. However, the future looks scary when this is coming out of leadership in the most important city in the world. America is the best country in the world thanks to capitalism, and socialism and communism will kill it.
My 38 Special Delivery
My son Jack and I attended an outdoor concert for 38 Special at the Canyons in Park City Utah on Friday, July 24th. The venue was walking distance from our condo. Additionally, a reader, Peter, joined us for the show. It was a beautiful night and the temperatures dropped as the sun went down.
Jack and I arrived a few songs into the opening act. It was strange as all-male band kept doing covers of women’s performers including Katy Perry and Chappell Roan, but in a rock format. Despite being as thin as I can recall in recent history thanks to my active lifestyle at elevation and eating healthier, I broke the chair. We were sitting on the lawn which is a ski slope and the angle made it hard to sit. In the middle of the concert, I fell as the small leg broke off the chair despite being sub 160lbs for the first time in years. The concert was fun and it was the 50th anniversary for the band. Only one original member is left, Don Barnes, who is now the lead vocalist and plays guitar.
Although I wrote a fun story about the band five years ago (pre-Substack), I thought I would remind people. On August 21, 1986, I was making and delivering pizza for Roseangeli’s on Hollywood Boulevard, just East of University. It was across the street from North Perry Airport. It was about 7pm and the phone rang. I spoke with the Ted Nugent’s manager who wanted 15 pizzas for the band who was touring with 38 Special at the Hollywood Sportatorium.
I told the restaurant owner that if I make these pizzas and deliver them, I am done for the night, as it was about a 10-mile drive on partially dirt roads. Yes, I am dating myself. He agreed. I immediately called up a cute rocker girl from my high school and told her we were going backstage. She needed to come to the restaurant, and she showed up with 1980s teased rocker hair, jeans, and a cut off T-shirt with big hoop earrings.
My car smelled awful, as it took about 30 minutes and the sausage, peperoni, and onions on some of the pies was wafting through my car. We got to the stadium and received directions from security to go in the back. She carried 4 pies, I carried 11, and the manager came out. He gave me a big tip and asked if we wanted to go backstage and party with the bands. My hot date looked at me as though I was the king of the world and we hung with the bands all night. It was a crazy time for two teenagers, but the bands could not have been nicer to us.
It was a Thursday night, and I ended up getting home incredibly late, as we stayed for a while after the concert. Friday, my date proceeded to tell everyone about my greatness and the legend grew. I was reminded of this story as I was listening to “Hold on Loosely,” on Friday night. I can’t believe it was 40 years ago that I went backstage. I remember it like yesterday. Sadly, this was 20 years before smart phones, and I have no pictures.
Quick Bites
Oil fell 7% stemming from a pause in hostilities, but stocks sold off due to weakness in chips. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF was -2.3%, while Sandisk, Western Digital, and Nvidia sharply lower. Despite the huge move lower in oil, Treasury yields were only slightly lower and remain elevated with the 10-year at 4.65% on Monday evening. Tuesday saw the Dow rally 1% on strong earnings and lower oil, but the Nasdaq underperformed and was -.22% with lower chip stocks. Oil fell 4% with WTI at $79/barrel on news that Iran had discussions about the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran launched missiles at US bases in Jordan on Tuesday evening for the 1st time since hostilities “paused.” Oil spiked 7% on the news and is back to $85/barrel. I continue to write about the fact that this war is not over despite Trump’s continued comments about MOUs and peace. Shockingly, equities were largely flat on the oil news initially, but sold off later in the day. The Dow underperformed -1%, while the S&P and Nasdaq were mixed after the mid day selloff. Semiconductor stocks were down again with the IShares Semiconductor ETF -1.2% as of 3pm. Treasury yields increased 2bps pushing the 10-year back to 4.62%. However, the 2-year yield fell 5bps post the Fed. Although the Fed held rates steady, three members voted to hike and it is clear that there is dissension at the Fed on the direction of rates. Warsh said the Fed will “not hesitate” to act on inflation. Here is what changed in the Fed Statement. Lots of tech earnings after the bell, but I cannot cover them today given travel.
Quick update on oil from my perspective that most people won’t get from the popular press. Oil rallied sharply on renewed strikes in the Middle East and has sold off in recent days on a temporary reprieve in bombing from both sides, only to rally again today. We have seen WTI fall from $93 to $79 to $85/barrel in days, which on the surface is a good thing. The issue is refining capacity has been decimated largely in the Middle East and Russia, and that has sent crack spreads through the rough. Oil is refined through the cracking process and turned into gasoline and other refined products. We are seeing a massive shortage in gasoline, while now there is a glut of oil given refineries are offline and cannot process the crude oil. Crack spreads are exploding, with the Brent-Diesel crack spread now at $83/barrel. The massive amount of offline refining capacity will create a major supply issue of gasoline and diesel. This oil story is not over. Note the 3-2-1 crack spread below, and how it is exploding. Note the 2nd chart with the diesel crack spread at $90/barrel. The market is not focused on this issue. Diesel is imperative to move products across the world and with these spreads climbing to historic highs it will impact the costs of goods.
Interesting WSJ article “See the $600 Million World of Executive Perks.” Perks—the often-lavish extras layered on top of executive pay—are booming. Among the 500 largest public companies, spending on four of the biggest-ticket perks has surged since 2021, according to research firm Equilar, led by a more than doubling in the median cost of executive security. Personal security topped the list, with Meta spending $22.5mm to protect Zuckerberg. Post the United Health CEO murder, security spend has increased. Relocation and expat support is another large expense alongside the big money spent on private jets. Alex Karp of Palantir received $160k for health and medical services. Marc Rowan from Apollo spent $790k for ground transportation. I do not even know how that is possible.
Elon Musk was interviewed about AI and the impact on civilization. “The future is going to be very, very different from the past and there is no analogy or metaphor that illustrates the magnitude of change we’re going to experience here,” Elon Musk said. He believes that within just a few years, artificial intelligence will exceed human intelligence, there could be as many as one billion humanoid robots, and an AI-fueled “age of abundance” will make cash meaningless. “I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years. The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of.
I have written extensively about how the socialists have taken over major cities and education in the United States. Here are two crazy stories that should open your eyes. Taxpayer-funded trans dolls with removable genitalia to hit classrooms this fall for kids as young as 4 to ‘learn about different options.’ The paper dolls, with gender-neutral names like “Sam,” “Rory,” “Avery” and “Parker,” have removable internal and external genitals, along with more than 100 interchangeable pieces of clothing, accessories and hairstyles — like a trans Mr./Mrs. Potato Head. Remind me why we are teaching 4-year-olds this stuff in school? Why not learn reading, writing, arithmetic, history, science… Now let’s look at NYC public schools and the horror that is taking over. Maureen Fadem — yet another nutty professor working for a CUNY school — called for kids to be educated in a “democratic socialist frame” and to be taught the Godfathers of Communism Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, despite their writing inspiring some of the most murderous dictators in history, from Stalin to Mao. “We need to overhaul the curriculum in a class consciousness frame. . .” In addition to students being schooled in “class consciousness” — the radical Marxist idea that business owners are at war with their workers and all private property should be revoked — Fadem also said that teachers must be educated in “race consciousness.” “We need to be teaching teachers about institutional racism in the training of pedagogy,” she said. The future is not bright, as our children are being indoctrinated. Be sure you understand what is being taught in your children’s schools. At the rate we are going, capitalism will be viewed a four-letter word. Yes, I am concerned.
Middle East
After 13 days of bombing, the US paused attacks. There is speculation that we are running out of munitions. Trump denies it. I do not believe it is a coincidence that the Fed meeting this week, and Trump wanted lower oil. I do not feel we are close to a deal when the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said this on Sunday: Today, as the nations of the world have grown weary of the tyranny and oppression of the US government and the criminal Zionists, who are the destroyers of lives and generations, there remains no path forward except jihad and resistance. Khamenei praised Hezbollah. On Monday, Iran leadership said it was still in control of the contested Strait of Hormuz, and was not seeking to resume peace talks with the United States. Then there was a video encouraging supporters of Iran to assassinate Melania and Barron Trump. Iran then put up another graphic billboard choking President Trump and saying “Revenge is inevitable.” It gets better. On Tuesday night, Iran struck US Military Bases in Jordan. Mr. President, they are playing you and you are looking weak. It is time to become more aggressive and give them 10 days of complete and total bombing. I am not opposed to using tactical nukes on their nuclear facilities to be sure they are rendered useless. As I have said for months, the IRGC and Iranian leadership are not to be trusted. They will never stop funding terrorism. I keep writing the market believes the war is over and Iran does not want it to be. Drop the hammer.
IDF confirms Hezbollah drone hit bulldozer, breaking Lebanon truce
Why Iran Is in No Rush to Return to Talks With United States
Amid a reprieve in the fighting, Iran’s leaders are betting that they can endure more pain than President Trump and have leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, analysts say.
The Houthis have hit Jizan and Yanbu, now the most important of all: Abqaiq. The extent of the damage has not been disclosed. Saudi Aramco is the largest oil and gas company in the world, with a market capitalization of almost $2 trillion. The last time Abqaiq was attacked, oil was +20% and Monday it was -7%.
Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties in quiet database update
Oil tanker explodes after hitting naval mine in Strait of Hormuz, IRGC-linked media claims
Israeli airstrike kills top officer of Hamas-run Palestine security service in Gaza Strip
Iran War Enters 6th Month and a Period of Greater Uncertainty
Here is a rundown of the major events of the war, as both sides consider their next moves. I am shocked that stocks are this high and oil this low 6 month into the war.
Continued closures at the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a super-spreader event of invasive species as marine organisms attach to the idle vessels and get transported to other ecosystems around the world.
Mamdani failed to name any Jewish members to his judicial advisory committee, law groups say
Mamdani said "the committee will help ensure that our judicial system reflects the city it serves." I do not know the percentage of Jews who are partners at law firms in NYC, but it is 20%+ in my opinion. One prominent lawyer suggested double that. So much for reflecting the city it serves.
Ivy League student who’s ‘not interested in working for a Jew’ says Cornell is welcoming him back
Austin Franco is the antisemite’s name, and he continued to stand by his comments while on Piers Morgan. No one should hire this idiot.
Dubai offers £600 rewards to residents who lure friends to visit as tourist numbers plumme
Politics
I have been clear on my stance that I believe in punishment for crimes. I have written extensively about my concerns around George Soros and his support of woke DAs who have let countless career criminals go only to commit more crimes. Cities such as NYC, Philadelphia, Chicago, DC, Seattle, LA, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and others have seen horrific DAs with policies that do not protect citizens and property. The tone for any state’s criminal justice system and critical policies and procedures in enforcement, like which cases to pursue, is set by each state’s “top cop” - the AG. In New York State, the AG is elected, and this year New Yorkers have a clear choice between Saritha Komatireddy (see her bio, incredible woman, very well qualified) and the highly partisan and controversial Letitia James for Attorney General. If you believe in the rule of law, support for the police, and punishment for crime, Komatireddy is the clear choice. If you live in NYS, and care about it, I am encouraging you do some work and really look at the two AG candidates. I do not care what party you support. Voters need to educate themselves on candidates and their views before electing important politicians into office. With Mamdani running NYC, we need a strong Attorney General.
Dr. Fauci’s bizarre fame fixation as COVID deaths mounted revealed in newly released diaries
I was very critical of Fauci and wrote countless pieces about his shortcomings including the June 2021 piece entitled “Fauci Ouchie-Time to Go.” Dr. Fauci pled the 5th during questioning by Congress. Nothing to see here folks. He has nothing to hide. YEAH, RIGHT!
Mamdani plans 30% discounts at city-owned groceries — but it comes with basket of questions
I have zero faith in the ultimate success of these stores. Who will they procure the food? How can they compete on purchasing inventory with Wal-Mart, Costco, and major grocers with 5 stores? Margins for grocery are single digits. If it is a 30% discount to retail, the shelves will be empty and only available for those camping out to gain access. Mamdani, let me guess, the employees of your stores will make $30/hr, while selling food at a 30% discount? Mamdani, I know you don’t understand basic economic principals or financial statements, but your idea is awful. Check out Boris Yeltsin’s amazement in 1989 when he saw a real American grocery store, as state owned in Russia SUCKED. Yeltsin was in such disbelief, he thought the store was staged. Welcome to capitalism, Mr. Yelstsin.
Mitch McConnell’s office releases new photo, statement that he’s still recovering
Time to step down. You are a shell of your former self, and it is embarrassing. You can no longer contribute. Term Limits Please! He has been in the Senate since 1985 but now is 84 years old and in diminished capacity.
Biden’s classified docs narrative crumbles amid release of ghostwriter tapes: ‘Be careful’
Recordings between Joe Biden and memoir ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer reveal halting speech and memory struggles during the 2017 sessions. I was critical of Biden’s cognitive ability starting in 2020 and was vilified for it.
More than 30 Minnesota water systems targeted in cyberattack
Russia wants 30,000 more troops from North Korea, Zelenskyy says
Major city launches harsh tourist crackdown as locals revolt over massive crowds
Barcelona voted to nearly triple the cruise tax for short-stay visitors
China lures away 105 top American minds in bid to dominate med, tech fields
French police arrest man after he attacked three women with knives in Paris
"It is Allah who commanded me," the man lying on the floor said. Why is it that radical Muslims try to kill Westerners all the time?
Drone Attacks On Wildberries, Russian Answer To Amazon, Bring War Home
Other Headlines
U.S. and Korean tech stocks are now tightly linked — and that could be a worry for investors
China memory chipmaker CXMT skyrockets 500% in blockbuster Shanghai debut
It is not just the grocery store. Go to a restaurant, hotel, buy a plane ticket, check out the cost of college ($125k for freshman year at Wake Forest), look at entertainment prices from movies to a concert to a theme park. Inflation remain a core issue for consumers.
Nearly one million people became new millionaires in 2025, averaging more than 2,680 every day.
From Silicon Valley to DC, the tech world is suddenly obsessed with one concept in AI: Distillation
Although the technology is a bit over my head, the ramifications are Chinese models such as Moonshot AI can be competitive with US models due to distillation. Interesting read.
Boring Company is looking for a $20bn valuation. Hand it to Musk, he has the Midas Touch between TSLA, SpaceX, Boring, Starlink, Neuralink….
Boom in tech wealth is fueling record prices for dinosaur bones, art and watches, auction houses say
Norway Tested a Chinese Bus Inside a Mountain and Found a Foreign SIM Card Holding the Kill Switch
MUST READ. I will not be buying a Chinese auto anytime soon.
LA’s burglary epidemic has Hollywood stars on edge: ‘Everyone I know has gotten robbed’
NYC promotes nearly 100% of students in grades 3-8 despite 40% of them failing standardized tests
For perspective, on April 12, 2020, just 46,294 global flights due to the pandemic.
Famed Polo Bar will leave its iconic NYC home for free rent — risking its exclusivity
Brilliant!
The No. 1 way Americans spend their free time: It’s ‘always been a huge part’ of our culture
Out of an average of five hours and 10 minutes of leisure and sports time per day, people ages 15 and older spend an average of about two and a half hours watching TV, and another 37 minutes on activities like video games and social media.
The real cost of being a pet parent in 2026
Orcas smash 4,000-pound fish to bits in never-before-seen killer behavior captured on camera
Health
‘Pandora’s box’: FDA peptide votes could open the door to more unproven drugs
An FDA panel with ties to the industry recommended loosening regulations on six peptides over objections from FDA scientists over a lack of data.
The Peptide Bodybuilders and Gym Bros Are Secretly Using to Recover Faster After Exercise
Alondra Sierra said she was just 19 when she noticed a freckle growing on her forehead. No one told her it could be a problem. It went untreated for too long.
Popular pastime sending more Americans to ER with devastating injuries
Trauma cases in NYC emergency rooms rose from less than 10% in 2018 to more than 50% by 2023, researchers found. E-Bikes.
Amazing new gel that can stop severe bleeding. Watch the video. The gel is made from algae and has the consistency of hummus.
Real Estate
Elections matter, as do policies that impact constituents and businesses. Look at the debacle of Seattle as outlined by Fortune. With Microsoft, Amazon, and Starbucks, Seattle was booming, adding 40,000 jobs per year at the peak. Now, the downtown area has been decimated with more than 1/3rd of the office space empty. Colliers is reporting Seattle office vacancy at 39.1% due to remote work, tech layoffs, companies leaving the city… Seattle metro job postings fell 35% between February 2020 and October 2025. The brilliant politicians in Seattle raised minimum wage to $20.76/hr, which has deterred hiring and new business formation. With other progressive cities in trouble, NYC is moving in the wrong direction under Mamdani. Even NBA star Kyle Kuzma blasted Mamdani this week. Companies have choices and bad policies will force major corporations to reconsider locations. Look at the disaster in Chicago. Ken Griffin moved the headquarters to Miami and recently said it was a great decision not to relocate to NYC. He is expanding the office in Miami and will be hiring more there than NYC going forward. Think of the impact on tax receipts and spending when Citadel will hire more in Miami. Many Citadel employees make many millions. Those high earners spend disproportionately and pay the lion’s share of taxes in NYC. Losing them to Miami is devastating to the NYC budget, but Mamdani does not understand. He is a communist. People need to use the demise of Seattle as a great example of how idiotic policies impact businesses and their decisions to stay and grow in a city. Soft-on-crime, vilifying the wealthy, high taxes, homelessness, anti-business rhetoric, regulations…. These policies impact business and wealthy which disproportionately pay taxes and spending.
Interesting CNBC article about upcoming midterm elections and voting on property taxes in 13 states. When they head to the polls in November, Americans will have a rare opportunity to use their voting power to directly shape tax policy. Ballooning government spending and growing tax burdens across the U.S. have led to the inclusion of 26 ballot initiatives concerning tax rates across 13 states. For 128 million American voters, particularly working-class and middle-class individuals bearing a significant tax burden, these ballot measures will test voter moods on increased government spending, as well as where that spending should come from. Although California’s “Billionaire Tax” is getting the most attention, many initiatives are attempting to roll back taxes. The article goes into details and is worth a look.
© 2026 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #911 ©Copyright 2026 Written by Eric Rosen.
