Opening Comments
Picture of the Day-Ryder Cup
Mike Cembalest Latest-Dude, Where’s My Stuff???
Quick Bites
Markets, Rates, Energy Supplies, Euro Energy Crisis
Dimon on US Default, WSJ on “Zero Cost” Bill,
Salesforce CEO on WFH, Fed Presidents Resigned
Homeland Security on Haitian Crisis, Aussie Lockdown Video
Generals On Afghanistan, ISIS-K Bomber
Can You Fit Into Your Jeans from 21 Years Old?
Virus/Vaccine
Data
Gottlieb on Delta and End of Pandemic
Harvard Breakout Despite 95% Vax Rate
Singapore Record Cases Despite 80%+ Vax
Real Estate
My General Comments (Miami/Jupiter/Miami vs NYC in cost)
Manhattan Breaks Luxury Records-Not Kidding
NYC Apartment Prices By Bedroom-Elliman
NYC Rents-Rising Sharply
Case-Shiller Home Prices Chart
Opening Comments
A great deal of feedback on the last piece about Term Limits with 99% of respondents agreeing with me that people are staying too long as politicians and need to get back to a real job. I went fishing this afternoon which explains the late send. Note how I called it “fishing,” not “catching.” I may have missed a late story as a result.
Throughout the piece you will find more information on supply chain and inflation issues. I spoke with a general contractor who told me he cannot finish houses as the appliances are on back order. Some are months late and they cannot finish the jobs as a result. He also told me costs for building are through the roof and that 4 years ago a high end house was $350/foot and now feels it is $550/foot. On a separate note, a part to my pool broke and it is back ordered for 3 months. It just does not end.
I was told I had a typo in the last report. Debbie (my sister and editor) you are fired. There are no days off at the Rosen Report. The news never sleeps. You need to cancel your daughter’s wedding and check the report for errors. Hopefully I caught them all today, but I doubt it.
Picture of the day-Ryder Cup
The Ryder Cup has largely been painful for Americans given the Europeans have dominated recently. Since 1995, the Europeans had won 9 of the last 12, but that all changed last weekend. The US eviscerated Europe in the most lopsided win in history, 19 to 9. It was a major statement and Dustin Johnson went 5-0-0, another very rare accomplishment. I love watching the Ryder Cup and the emotions which come out during the event. Rory Mcilory was crying after given he felt he let his team down with poor play. Also exciting was the play of many of the US rookies. Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay went 3-0-1 and Schauffele went 3-1-0. All around it was fun to watch the US finally play as a team. Remember the big Bryson/Koepka fued? They hugged it out and seem to have made up much to my chagrin. Sergio Garcia is now the all-time points leader with 25.5 points. Some pictures below.
Mike Cembalest Latest-Dude, Where’s My Stuff???
I have been speaking about supply chain issues for months. My last note had a large section on the topic as well sighting all kinds of examples. All the Rosen Report readers know about my admiration for Cembalest and I generally include his latest research. In Mike’s latest Eye on the Market, Dude, Where’s my Stuff, he discusses the supply chain issues in great detail. As always, amazing charts. Here is his opening: The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022. The CEO of SONOS said “The industry right now is probably in its most challenging time it’s ever been in terms of semiconductors and port delays and container shortages, you name it,” Spence said in an interview on “Mad Money.” “In my 23 years in tech, I haven’t a seen a period as challenged as this.”
My Best Fish
I have fished all over the world and think I have done pretty darn well. Today, I am showing off my biggest catch (when picture was available) in some major species with a few lines about each one. Hope you enjoy.
I went on a surf trip to the Maldives in 2010 with Dan Loeb and some friends and it was one of the all time best trips. I went off on a tiny dingy for fish. The guide spoke broken English and gave me some crap lure and rod. I was not convinced I would catch anything and I caught my biggest red snapper at 15 lbs about 2 minutes after dropping in my line. It made fresh sushi for the boat and it was delicious. I would surf 3 times a day and while I was not surfing, I was catching dinner of snapper, grouper and wahoo.
I went to Bimini on my boat with my son, Jack a couple years ago. Yeah, he was much smaller then. We went night fishing and a flying fish flew into my boat and hit me. I picked it up and dropped it down into the water on my hook and caught this 13lb Mutton Snapper.
Deep dropping is a form of fishing where you use an electric reel with 10lb weights to send your bait down 800-1800 ft. I caught this beautiful 8lb queen snapper in 1500 feet of water in the Bahamas. Note the eyes and the size of the pupil. They are huge given they are so deep, it is pitch black. I use lights attached to my bait. Also note the size of the reel behind me (lucky hat too). It has a few thousand feet of line which is needed to get to the bottom. I love eating these fish. These get 25lbs +, but I am yet to get one over 10 lbs. At 1500 feet, you catch some strange looking fish. I one time caught an oil fish and was told if you eat it plan on running to the toilet.
We went to Cabo and had an amazing few days of fishing. We were on a 24 ft panga and I caught this 35lb cubera snapper. My back was so bad after fighting it off the rocks right near shore, I had the boat captain hold the fish. I could not move my arms. Big teeth too. This guide knows how to catch fish. This day, I also caught a 25lb cubera and a 10lb cubera. All fishing right off the shore in the rocks.
The next day in Cabo, we went for yellowfin tuna and I caught 15 with my little spinning rod. They ranged from 50-70 lbs. While reeling one in, a 300lb black marlin at my tuna and I caught it, but refused to bring it on the boat due to safety concerns and I did not want to kill such a beautiful fish.
This is me fighting the black marlin which we brought near the boat. Too hard for pic. Look at the rod bending in half. For fisherman, it was a 7’6” St Croix three piece travel rod with a small Penn spinning reel and 20lb braid line. Yes, I touched the leader and it was an official catch of a 300lb black marlin. Likely would have been some kind of record based on the tackle, but I would not kill the fish to prove it.
In Cabo, I hired a different guide to take us fishing off the beach. Cabo is so fishy that you can catch rooster fish, sierra mackerel and mahi from the SHORE. Here are a bunch of sierra mackerel which make amazing ceviche.
On a separate trip to Bimini, we were going for wahoo (winter time) and caught this amazing 50lb wahoo. I catch wahoo generally between October and April. These things are beasts and was caught high speed trolling (18mph) using massive lures called Islanders. Wahoo can swim 60mph and when they hit the lure, it is like a freight train with line RIPPING off the reel and screaming. I have had three wahoo on at once and it was the most pandemonium I have seen in my life. This was my lucky fishing hat which fell off and is gone forever. My fishing has never been the same since I lost it. Yes, I bought the identical hat, but it does not have the same mojo. Wahoo just showed up for the season and some have been caught. Hoping to get some in the freezer in the next week or two.
As you can see by this picture, I was 1 mile off shore in Boca using a live pilchard as bait and caught this 35lb blackfin tuna. It is a brutal fight as it is May which means sharks are everywhere and I was lucky enough to muscle this one in the boat despite being surrounded by toothy predators. Yes, I had a lot of fresh sushi and a sore back. I prefer the taste of bluefin or yellowfin, but by me, you catch mostly blackfin. In the Bahamas in the spring, yellowfin run. It is about 80 miles from me to do a yellowfin run in May.
This is by no means my largest sailfish, but the best quality picture I have of one. I never keep them and some days catch 7 or 8 in the winter. Some people make smoked fish dip with it, but I think they are too beautiful to eat. I rarely pose for a picture with these beauties, but did this day. It was taken with an iPhone on portrait mode. My biggest sail was about 90lbs. The bill is incredibly rough and to hold the fish, you need gloves or will pay the price. It feels like 20 grit sandpaper. I generally catch them with live bait, but this one was caught trolling with a ballyhoo and a Sea Witch skirt.
Dolphin (mahi) fishing is a ton of fun. My biggest is 35lbs, but cannot find that picture. This one is less than 1/2 that size, but so colorful when they come out of the water. Look how close I am to shore in Boca. I caught 5 this day as well as the sail above. We had mahi ceviche and tacos for weeks even after giving away bags of fish to friends.
I have only caught two African Pompano which are amazing eating fish. This nice one was caught in Boca off of a shipwreck with live pilchard. Again, sharks tried to steal my dinner and my friend did an amazing job of gaffing it just as a bull shark tried to steal it.
I went striped bass fishing in the Hamptons with my son and my buddy, Mark, who has since passed away. I caught this 30lb bass and we had a great day with hundreds of fish swarming the boat in October of 2014.
I do a lot of bass fishing as well, but don’t always have my phone with me. I caught this 8lb bass a couple years ago. Not bad.
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with tech names dragging down the broader markets as Treasury yields traded near three-month highs and lawmakers in Washington continued their budget stalemate. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.83% to 14,546. for its worst day since March and the S&P 500 shed 2.04% to finish at 4,352. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 569.38 points, or 1.63%, to close at 34,299. The 10 year Treasury hit 1.56% after being 1.29% two weeks ago. The 10 year settled at 1.52% today. “The market’s been steadily coming around to the reality that yields were awfully low relative to the fundamentals. Now the Fed is shifting, and everybody’s shifting their positions, all at once, as we tend to do,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Wednesday, the markets rebounded slightly with the Dow and S&P up approximately .25%, but the NASDAQ was down .25%. I am not overly concerned. I feel a pullback is in the cards. I have spoken about it for a few weeks and the views of many strategists. A bit of uncertainty with rates, the debt ceiling/budget showdown, the infrastructure bill and oil/gas prices spooking markets. A bit on the energy markets below.
A shortfall in global energy supplies spilled into crude markets on Tuesday, pushing oil prices to their highest levels in three years. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, grazed the $80-a-barrel mark in early trading and was last up 1% at $79.54 a barrel and on course for its highest close since October 2018. U.S. crude futures were up 1.2% at $76.36 a barrel, also on track to close at their highest in three years. Both key benchmarks have jumped around 11% over the past month as part of a broader rally in energy markets, with depleted natural-gas inventories and resurgent economic activity sparking fierce competition in Europe and Asia for natural gas to feed their power markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that the causes of the recent rise in inflation may last longer than anticipated. The remarks are part of mandated testimony Powell must give to Congress regarding the Fed’s economic response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Senator Warren has vowed to oppose Powell’s renomination as she feels he has weakened the banking system. I have been writing about inflation for over 6 months. Yes, some of the price increases we have seen are transitory, but to me, not all. I believe we will be having inflation issues and the rates markets are starting to get nervous. Cotton futures were above $1 for the 1st time for 10 years. The price was up 14% in about a week. No inflation to see here. What does this do to the price of clothes?
Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop. The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut. Inventories at European storage facilities are at historically low levels for this time of year. Pipeline flows from Russia and Norway have been limited. That’s worrying as calmer weather has reduced output from wind turbines while Europe’s aging nuclear plants are being phased out or are more prone to outages—making gas even more necessary. No wonder European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record. I have been writing about all the inflation in the system and in recent reports have focused on oil and gas. Historically, prices rise in winter for heating oil as temperatures plunge. I am quite concerned about the direction of prices based on the season and what is likely to happen this winter. Don’t be surprised if you winter heating bills are through the rough this year.
JPMorgan Chase has begun preparing for the possibility of the United States hitting its debt limit, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told Reuters on Tuesday, adding he nevertheless expected policymakers to find a solution to avoid that “potentially catastrophic” event. The country’s largest lender has begun scenario-planning for how a potential U.S. credit default would affect the repo and money markets, client contracts, its capital ratios, and how ratings agencies would react, Dimon said in an interview. “This is like the third time we’ve had to do this, it is a potentially catastrophic event,” he said. “Every single time this comes up, it gets fixed, but we should never even get this close. I just think this whole thing is mistaken and one day we should just have a bipartisan bill and get rid of the debt ceiling. It’s all politics,” he added. I had the pleasure of working for Jamie and feel he is among the strongest CEOs in the world. I have many fun stories about him and was always impressed with his leadership and knowledge. I sure miss lunches with Jamie.
This is a WSJ opinion piece about President Biden’s comments around the proposed $3.5-5 trillion in spending package. “Every time I hear this is going to cost A, B, C, or D—the truth is, based on the commitment that I made, it’s going to cost nothing,” President Biden said at a press conference Friday, trying to restore momentum to the reconciliation package, “because we’re going to raise the revenue.” Instead of correcting his multi-trillion-dollar whopper, the President then took to Twitter on Saturday night to claim: “My Build Back Better Agenda costs zero dollars. And it adds zero dollars to the national debt.” I know there will be some positives which come out of the bill if passed, but I also know there will be massive waste and pork. To suggest it will cost nothing is crazy to me which is why I highlighted the comment from the President. The article is comical and calls out Biden and the media for cheering on the amazing “free” plan which merely takes money from the rich. Come on man!
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said Tuesday that there’s no returning to the pre-pandemic workplace. “I’m sorry to all my friends, but we’re not all going back,” Benioff said in an on-stage interview at the Code Conference in Beverly Hills, California. Benioff’s pronouncements on the future of the office are particularly notable since his company’s gargantuan 61-floor tower in San Francisco opened just over three years ago. The company also has large buildings in cities including Indianapolis, London, New York and Tokyo. “We have almost 75,000 people now,” Benioff said. “They’re not in their towers. We built these gorgeous towers. They’re mostly at home, and that’s fine.” Over one year ago I wrote that to me, the longest lasting impact of the pandemic may be WFH or at the very least, flexible work arrangements. It does not work for every industry, but it would be hard for me to ever consider going back to an office everyday again and know a lot of people agree. Major companies are permanently modifying working arrangements.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan became the second regional central bank leader to resign Monday, saying he was stepping down early following a recent controversy over stock market trades he made. Kaplan’s early retirement follows an announcement earlier in the day from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said he will leave as well but cited health concerns and not the issue over his investment portfolio activity. “The Federal Reserve is approaching a critical point in our economic recovery as it deliberates the future path of monetary policy. Unfortunately, the recent focus on my financial disclosure risks becoming a distraction to the Federal Reserve’s execution of that vital work,” Kaplan said in a statement. Controversy had swirled over the issue after disclosures that Kaplan in particular had been executing large-dollar trades in big-name companies such as Amazon, Apple and Delta Air Lines. The Wall Street Journal first reported the trades. Kaplan insisted he had done nothing wrong. “During my tenure, I have adhered to all Federal Reserve ethical standards and policies,” he said in his monthly statement. “My securities investing activities and disclosures met Bank compliance rules and standards.” I wrote about this situation a couple weeks ago. I am glad they resigned. The lack of judgement and ethics never ceases to amaze me. Let me get this right, you are making crucial decisions which impact markets, yet you think there is no conflict for you to trade stocks? For another time, I have a funny story about a case of mistaken identity at the Council of Foreign Relations between me and Eric ROSENgren, the Boston Fed President.
A California moratorium guaranteeing insurance in wildfire-threatened areas lapsed Saturday, putting 347,000 homes in Pasadena and other Los Angeles foothills communities at the mercy of the market. As many as 2.4 million homes are at risk of losing protection in 2021 as year-long grace periods expire – though new disasters may extend their shields. In all, 18 percent of the state’s households could effectively lose protection, the largest single group since the moratorium law took effect three years ago. It is becoming increasingly challenging for people to get insurance and some readers have reached out to me concerned. For those moving to Florida, be sure you understand the location and age of your home as it greatly impacts the cost. Older homes and those in flood areas cost far more to insure. A reader bought an older home in Miami Beach for $2mm and the insurance cost was about $40k for perspective. I have a newer house not in a flood zone and I pay less than half of the amount above for a more expensive home.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Monday that the “rate of illness” among illegal immigrants who have arrived at the US-Mexico border in recent months is “approximately 20 percent” — days after admitting that thousands of Haitian migrants who set up a temporary encampment under a bridge in Del Rio, Texas were not tested for COVID-19. “When one is speaking of 7,000 or 7,500 people encountered at the border every day, if one takes a look at that system, it is not built for that in a COVID environment where isolation is required,” Mayorkas said during remarks at the Immigration Law and Policy Conference. Mayorkas did not specify whether the “illness” he was referring to was COVID-19, though he also said that he did not expect “the tragic rise of the Delta variant” over recent months. The Federal Government has mandated employees must be vaccinated, over 1000 colleges have requirements, major firms do the same yet we are allowing hundreds of thousands of illegals into the country with no requirement? Makes no sense. I read that in the next couple weeks there will be a requirement for vaccination for immigrants. What took so long?
I have never been to Australia, but understand it is beautiful. I missed an opportunity to attend the Sydney Olympics (story for another report). The media is not covering the insane lockdowns and strict stay at home rules with 60% of the population (25mm) under lockdown. A reader sent me this 30 second video link of dozens of cops arresting a man for leaving his house. One would think there was an Ebola or Smallpox outbreak or Charles Manson escaping from jail. Yes, COVID-19 is bad, but lets remember, the survival rate in the 99%+ range and a majority who die are old or have underlying conditions. These tactics in Australia seem a bit over the top to me, but not stopping crazy initiatives to curb the pandemic. Sydney residents who are not vaccinated against COVID-19 risk being barred from various social activities even when they are freed from stay-at-home orders in December, New South Wales state Premier Gladys Berejiklian warned on Tuesday. Berejiklian said people who choose not to be vaccinated could be barred entry to shops, restaurants and entertainment venues even after the state lifts all restrictions against them on Dec. 1. "A lot of businesses have said they will not accept anyone who is unvaccinated," Berejiklian told Seven News on Tuesday. "Life for the unvaccinated will be very difficult indefinitely." There is a 30 second video here which an Australian leader speaks about the current situation. If I am hearing him right, he said that, 78% of the people requiring hospitalization were vaccinated and 17% were partially vaccinated. That is surprising to me. In the US, YouTube announced it is banning prominent anti-vaccine activist and all anti-vaccine content.
Top generals told lawmakers under oath on Tuesday that they advised President Joe Biden early this year to keep several thousand troops in Afghanistan — directly contradicting the president’s comments in August that no one warned him not to withdraw troops from the country. The remarkable testimony pits top military brass against the commander-in-chief as the Biden administration continues to face tough questions about what critics are calling a botched withdrawal that directly led to the deaths of 13 American service members, scenes of chaos at the Kabul airport, and the abandonment of American citizens and at-risk Afghans in the war-torn country. Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services in a hearing Tuesday that he recommended maintaining a small force of 2,500 troops in Afghanistan earlier this year. This link is to a CNN article which outlines 5 takeaways from the testimony: 1) The war in Afghanistan is not over. 2) Military leaders advocated for keeping trooops in Afghanistan, 3) Keeping al Qaeda & ISIS in check will be harder now, 4) Doha agreement “lowered morale” of Afghan forces, 5) US credibility has been damaged according to Milley. I have given my view here. I felt the Afghanistan situation was handled incredibly poorly and now the Taliban has billion of dollars of weapons and equipment. I would have preferred to see a small force left in place in Afghanistan. It is done now and just hope we do not pay a higher price over the next few years due to how this was handled.
People risk developing type 2 diabetes if they can no longer fit into the jeans they were wearing when they were 21, according to one of the world’s leading experts on the disease. And if people discovered they could no longer fit into the same-sized trousers then they were “carrying too much fat”, Prof Roy Taylor, from Newcastle University, said. Taylor was presenting data at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes’ annual conference on an early study that found that people of normal weight with type 2 diabetes could “achieve remission” by losing weight. Eight in 12 people managed to “get rid” of their condition by losing 10 to 15% of their body weight. I have written extensively about obesity and the related diseases of the heart, cancer, disabilities, stroke…..As a country, we need to be far more focused on diet, exercise, weight to improve health, increase lifespans, reduce health care costs….Despite being in shape, no, I do not fit into my jeans from 30 years ago. Sounds like a diet is coming my way.
A top Republican on a key military panel said he reviewed intelligence that the ISIS-K suicide bomber that killed 13 U.S. service members outside of Hamid Karzai International Airport in August was a prisoner released from Bagram Air Base after the Taliban seized control of the facility. "There were 7,000 prisoners housed there — terrorists, the worst of the terrorists — held separately from other terrorists," Calvert (Rep. R-CA) said. "We believe he was one of them."
Virus/Vaccine
Continued improvement in cases and hospitalizations, while deaths are growing, albeit at a slower pace (+7%). The charts are showing a clear peak in cases and hospitalizations and deaths are peaking in here now for this Delta wave.
The Delta wave of COVID-19 will be the last major surge the US sees in the pandemic and it will likely run its course by Thanksgiving, former FDA Chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb said on CNN Monday. "I think on the back end of this Delta surge of infection around the country, after we get through this, this may be the last major wave of infection and we're going to start to transition from the pandemic phase of this virus - at least here in the US - to a more endemic phase where the coronavirus becomes a persistent threat but you're not seeing levels of infection quite the same way that you've seen them in the past year and a half," he told host Pamela Brown. I hope Gottlieb is right. I did read there have been no new positive Mu tests lately. Seems as though he does not worry about other variants? He has been wrong a lot, but sure hope he is right about this one.
“With the support of Harvard University leaders, advised by city and state public health officials, we have decided to move all first-year MBA students and some in the second year, to remote learning for the week of 9/27 to 10/03,” HBS spokesperson Mark Cautela said in a statement on Monday. The move comes after “a steady rise in breakthrough infections,” the school admitted. “Ninety-six percent of Harvard University’s employees are vaccinated, while 95% of its students are vaccinated, according to the university’s COVID-19 testing dashboard,” MSN reported. I am surprised with so many vaccinated there is an outbreak.
Singapore's health ministry reported 2,236 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, the highest since the beginning of the pandemic. A recent rise in cases after the relaxation of some COVID-19 measures has prompted Singapore to pause further reopening. More than 80% of its population has been vaccinated against COVID-19. From this week, Singapore tightened some COVID-19 curbs such as limiting social gatherings to two people and making work from home a default. I am at a bit of a loss here. Over 80% vaccinated, yet Singapore has record cases? I do not see huge detail about how sick patients are in Singapore. It is a bit concerning that the US is at 55% fully vaccinated and Singapore is breaking records at 80%.
Real Estate
My General Comments
Devin Kay called to tell me that a 1,600 square foot, 1 bedroom apartment at the Surf Club in Miami sold for $3.6mm or 2,300/ft. It faces the city with no ocean views and it was on the 8th floor. The best units in the building have sold for $4,000/ft. $3.6mm for a one bedroom? I wrote about a house on North Bay Road (hottest street in Miami) and it was listed 18 months ago for $16mm and someone offered $17m and the owners took it off the market. In the past two months, it sold for $25mm (new ask) in ONE DAY. The house next door was listed and sold for $10.8mm a little over a year ago. It is now listed for $26.9mm and based on the lack of inventory. The house is dark and needs extensive renovation. It also has an awkward layout. It should not sell for near ask, but in this market, anything is possible with people desperate not to be short Florida R/E. A 4,700 square foot unit in the Surf Club which sold for $14.5mm in 2019 just listed for $24mm or over $5,200/foot. For comparison, I know of a sale in the building in 2020 for a 6,500 foot unit for $13.5mm as the pandemic struck. If the 4,700 foot unit goes for low to mid 20s, what is the 6,500 foot worth?
I was in Jupiter for a golf tournament with Jack and called up a broker who specializes in Admiral’s Cove properties. He had shown me homes before. I asked him if the market had cooled down yet. He had a profane reply and suggested there is basically no inventory and he was frustrated he had nothing to show his buyers. He mentioned 9 homes out of 893 are for sale. Two are tear downs and a couple are in process of being built. He had lived there for years and just sold his house despite loving the community. He said he was living in what had become a knockdown and was planning on doing it until someone offered him a full price, so he sold it. These communities always have 7-10% for sale. My community always had 55-75 homes for sale and today, 13. He also mentioned what is for sale is asking insane prices. One example was a house which was asking in the $7mm range has doubled in asking price over 3 years time. Lots of delusional pricing going on in this market. I would love to move to Jupiter on the water. Nothing is available. I think my house sells in 48 hours at full ask if I put it on the market.
Miami’s housing market has been one of the hottest since the start of the pandemic, as buyers from around the country have descended on the city for added space and warm weather in the WFH world. Strong demand for condos and single-family homes and dwindling supply pushed prices higher, and now Miami has overtaken Los Angeles as the second most expensive housing market in the U.S., according to the latest report from RealtyHop. A household in Miami should expect to pay $2,653 a month toward homeownership costs, or roughly 81.6 percent of median income, according to the October index. The monthly report analyzes homeownership affordability across the country’s 100 most populous cities. New York City is still the least affordable large metro in the nation. The average household in New York has to spend 82.2 percent of their income on home ownership costs.
NYC
It’s only September, but Manhattan’s luxury real estate market has already set an all-time record. Based on the combined asking prices, buyers have signed contracts to purchase $11.4 billion worth of luxury homes in the borough so far this year, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly contract report, which tracks homes asking $4 million or more in Manhattan. The year-to-date total surpasses the report’s annual record of $11.3 billion, set in 2014.
Jared Halpern from Elliman NYC sent me this chart.
This WSJ article outlines big rent increases after the dip from the pandemic. Multiple examples of increases of 25-35% in rent.
U.S. home prices surged 19.7% in July, once again posting the biggest jump in more than 30 years. The record gain in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values nationwide followed a 18.7% jump in June and was the 14th straight month of accelerating price increases.