My Favorite Restaurant in the Hamptons
7/14/24
Opening Comments
My last note was entitled, “My Love/Hate Relationship with Apple.” The most opened links were Jon Stewart’s take on Biden (hysterical) and the tech profit’s concerning predictions.
Attempted Assassination of Trump on Saturday Evening
Lots of unknowns, but I saw a video that shows a witness account of the shooting. In the video, a witness claims to have seen the shooter crawling on the roof with a rifle. The witness alerted the authorities, but it took minutes before the police and went after the shooter. Minutes later, 5 shots were fired by the man on the roof according to the witness that was interviewed by a BBC reporter. After the shots, the authorities “blew the shooters head off,” according to the eye witness. If this account is accurate, there are many people who should lose their jobs. Comer announced an investigation into the Trump shooting and will call the Secret Service to the hearing. However, I do want to give praise to those brave people who jumped in harm’s way as shots were fired to shield Trump from gun fire. It seems as though Trump was shot in the ear and it was a graze and not serious. A spectator was also killed, and another severely injured.
The shooter was identified as 20-year-old, Thomas Matthew Crooks. Records show he was a registered Republican that gave to Progressive causes? He was from Butler, PA. No motive was given and I was unable to find his social media information.
Post-debate, this was already Trump’s election to lose, as I felt he was in command. I believe this incident will only strengthen Trump’s chances. PredictIt had Trump jump by 6 points within hours after the shooting. Still months and a lot can happen, but this will be a tough event for the Democrats to overcome. The best chance for the Dems is with a new candidate. Post the shooting, but Musk and Ackman endorsed Trump.
Think of the message the assassination attempt sends to the world about how divided we are as a country. Yet another case of unnecessary violence.
Trump was airlifted to a hospital and appears to be in good condition.
Biden said a week ago: "So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.” Could you imagine the media if Trump said this, and Biden was shot?
According to the Reuters story, when Reagan got shot, he went up 22 points in the polls.
Markets
CPI
Nikkei All-Time Highs-Finally
Surging Homeowner’s Insurance Rates
Where Do Gen Z and Millennials Live Over Time
NYC Apartment Bidding Wars at Record Levels
Distressed Market Opportunities Brewing
Video of the Day-Bezos in the Beginning
I believe Amazon is the single most disruptive company in history and Bezos is a complete genius. However, this short video is quite funny as Bezos reflects on the early days when Amazon was 10 employees compared with 1.5mm today. Jeff talks about his logistics and packing issues in the earliest days of Amazon. He was packing boxes himself on the floor and there was a funny exchange with a colleague worth listening to in the video.
My Favorite Restaurant in the Hamptons
I have been critical of the restaurants in the Hamptons for decades. Yes, there have been some new edible additions, but given the wealth and number NYC foodies that descend on the Hamptons, it is effectively a culinary wasteland on a relative basis. The food tends to be VERY expensive and fine, but hardly remarkable. My favorite restaurant that his long since closed was in Water Mill and called Mirko’s. The family-owned operation was so good but sadly the family retired in 2013.
It is rare that a restaurant has good food, great views/scenery, fun vibe and snappy service and has reasonable prices when located in the Hamptons. Well, there is one place that checks those boxes, and it is Cowfish in Hampton Bays. The restaurant is casual and some wear shorts and flip flops. It is on the water with stunning views. Again, the food is not fancy, but tasty and well presented.
The menu has something for everyone and includes meat, fish, chicken, salads, raw bar, burgers and more. Kids are welcome. I have been a half dozen times over the years and have never once been disappointed. The service is quick, and they brought out our food and drinks in no time. Did I mention getting a table is akin to winning the Lotto?
On Wednesday, I started with a delicious Wedge Salad with sugared bacon. For the entree, I had the Lobster Roll which is served with chunks of fresh lobster flavored with tarragon and celery. Both were delicious. The bun on the roll was beautifully prepared and both soft and crunchy. The Crispy Brussell Sprouts with caramelized onions and Dijon ponzu sauce are another level and top three sprouts I have ever tried. The Spinach and Artichoke Dip did not disappoint, and the chips were fresh. Everyone always loves the Danish Baby Back Ribs and three people in the party ordered them. Not a rib was left. Tender and tasty was the review. I have had ribs before and loved them, albeit a messy meal.
I must say that the dish that stole the show was the tuna poke bowl, which is not traditional, as it is not served over rice. It inclded big fresh chunks of tuna, mango, strawberry, avocado and pineapple pesto with a chili wasabi sauce that result in your tastebuds doing backflips. It is not the highest quality tuna I have ever tasted, but the combinations with the sweet flavors made this a must-get appetizer. I am changing my poke recipe after eating this. It was that good.
Catching Cowfish on a beautiful night and sitting outside is always a memorable experience for me. I have never had a bad meal there and appreciate the casual vibe, views and great food. It is jam packed for a reason. They have some fun mixed drinks and a diverse (primarily American) wine selection. The overall food prices are reasonable for the Hamptons relative to the insanity in Southampton, Bridgehampton or East Hampton town.
Driving West in the evening is a nightmare with traffic. It is 8.2 miles from the house and took us almost 50 minutes at 5:10pm on Wednesday. Coming home took 20 minutes. If you can get in, go and bring your appetite and camera to snap beautiful pics of the water and boats. They have a sister restaurant called Rumba (Island cuisine and rum bar), where they shuttle you with a small boat.
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Quick Bites
All non-bolded text below is excerpted from the cited articles. Bold are my thoughts.
Thursday, the S&P 500 retreated from a record as investors rotated out of the big technology winners of the year such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta. The catalyst for the move was the lowest consumer price index reading in more than three years, which sent rates lower and investors into small caps and housing-related shares. In a rarity, the small caps outperformed. However, Friday, the market rallied, as Home Depot and Caterpillar rallied. Large non-tech stock performance gave the market a sharp boost Friday. I view the broader rally as a big positive. Finally, the Russell 2000 is moving up and is now +6% YTD but is still underperforming the S&P+18% and Nasdaq+24%. Oil prices fall to snap four-week winning streak as rally stalls out and is now trading at $82/barrel.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1 from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May and was flat on a monthly basis. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.1 % monthly and 3.3% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.4%, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Post the report, Treasury yields fell 8 and 12 bps respectively for the 2 and 10 year bonds. From Peter Boockvar: Bottom line, service inflation is further moderating, though still up 5% y/o/y, and goods prices continue to deflate (and we’ll see to what extent in the coming quarters the spike in shipping costs will have here in reversing this) and the Fed is being given a green light to cut in September. However, wholesale prices rose by .2%, slightly more than forecast.
The Nikkei had lost decades of performance after peaking in 1989. YTD, the Japanese index is +26% and hit record highs not seen 35 years. Earnings are the single driver to the current market rally, Jesper Koll, expert director at Tokyo-based financial services company Monex Group, told CNBC. “Corporate Japan is now benefitting from decades of operational restructuring,” Koll said, adding that “breakeven points are at world record lows, so even minimal increases in top-line revenues feed explosive profit growth.” When the Nikkei crossed the 40,000 mark in March, Koll told CNBC at that time that it was “perfectly reasonable” for the index to cross 55,000 points by the end of 2025. Koll told CNBC this week: “I stand by my forecast — the Nikkei 225 is poised to climb to 55,000 before the end of next year.”
I have written extensively about homeowners insurance, given the disaster it has become to get and keep insurance at any reasonable price in many markets. This Bloomberg article is entitled “Home Insurance Premiums Are Surging—and States Are Allowing It.” State regulators across the U.S. appear to be buckling to industry demands for fear that insurers will pack up and exit their regions, leaving residents with few coverage options. States are also giving home insurers almost everything they ask for on rates, an analysis conducted for The WSJ suggests. The average state-approved increase since the start of last year is just 0.2% below the increase requested by the industry, according to the analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Insurance giant State Farm last month asked Californian regulators for a 30% rate increase for homeowners, barely three months after a 21% increase came into effect. Insurance companies are taking massive losses due to hurricanes, flooding, fires, tornadoes and other natural disasters.
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Great and concerning article entitled “Who do Gen Z and Millennials live with in America?” In the late 1960s, nearly 40% of 18-24 year-olds lived with their spouse. Last year, just 6% did. Indeed, data plotted from the Census Bureau reveals how dramatically the living arrangements of America’s youngest adults have changed in the last 50+ years. Indeed, some 28% of America’s 25-34 year-olds also reported living with parents or other relatives in 2023, which is more than double the amount from 1968. Part of the reason, of course, is the crisis in housing affordability, as home-price-to-income ratios have increased in almost every single Metropolitan area in America since 1990. For both cultural and financial reasons, young people are waiting longer to take those big traditional steps in life: the average age of a first marriage is rising, and the median homebuyer age has risen by a decade, to 49, in the last 20 years. Think about the burden this puts on parents living with fixed incomes. Decades of bad fiscal and monetary policies are partially to blame for this disaster. We need to help our kids become independent and productive citizens. Parents, get that guest room ready, as it looks like the kids are moving back home. This headline is concerning as well. Nearly Half of Adult Gen Zers Getting Financial Help from Mom & Dad, According to BofA Study.
2024 Election (98% of this section was pre-assassination)
'It's already disastrous': Biden campaign fundraising takes a major hit
I do not see a path forward for Biden. I said this after the debate and nothing that has happened has changed my view. Interestingly, post the assassination attempt, Biden is doing better against Harris, but worse against Trump. Money is the oxygen that propels a campaign and the largest super PAC supporting Biden are withholding $90mm unless Biden is off the ticket. Biden has been a problem that was covered up by the party, Biden Administration, Biden family, and the left-leaning media. As Pelosi said, “time is running short for him to decide.” Biden had more horrible gaffes on Thursday calling Zelensky “Putin” and calling Harris, “Vice President Trump” during his disaster solo press conference (1st solo of 2024). Despite this, Biden vowed to stay in the race. I thought Trump was delusional, but Biden has him beat. This is now officially elder abuse. It will also impact the down ballot voting.
Biden and Trump tied despite debate, as 67% call for president to drop out
I just have no faith in any poll that suggests Biden and Trump are tied. I am more of the belief that Democratic pollster, Nate Silver is right showing Biden has a 27% chance and I think that is generous.
You know you are in trouble when the left-leaning media that has protected him for 4 years starts to turn. NBC-'No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path': Biden insiders say the writing is on the wall. CNN-Angry and stunned Democrats blame Biden’s closest advisers for shielding public from full extent of president’s decline.
This would have been helpful news to your party at the time. I was saying such things years ago and was villified for it. Now, all the media that was protecting him, lying for him, giving the President softball questions and making excuses for his gaffes despite video evidence are calling him out. It is about damn time! Todd, you are partially to blame for the Democrat mess. In an effort to protect your candidate, you covered up major issues. Think about how much more respected you would have been if you came forward two years ago. You would look like a real journalist.
Some of these ideas border on lunacy. Mayor Pete has been the single worst Transportation Secretary in history and another name in the article is Tlaib, the Jew hating Progressive. Buttigieg has a high IQ and is articulate, but he has had failure after failure as Transportation Secretary. Serenity Now. Serenity Now (famous line from George Costanza’s Dad on Seinfeld.)
This was over 2 years ago in June of 2022. He is unfit for office today, let alone four more years.
JD Vance Said He Believes Trump’s Sexual Assault Accuser in Unearthed Interview
Does not bode well for Vance as VP pick but he is still a front runner. It seems as though we will learn Trump’s VP pick over the next week. The Republican National Convention starts Monday.
63% of US voters see Biden, Trump as ‘embarrassing,’ most would replace them
Israel/Middle East
Israel Calls On Civilians to Leave Gaza City After Deadly Strike
Nearly half of Jewish voters believe NY is unsafe for them, shocking poll finds
The survey conducted for the pro-Israel New York Solidarity Network found that 44% of the 1,200 Jewish voters in New York City and other counties queried said they have felt unsafe, as did 67% of identifiable Orthodox Jews.
Three-quarters of Jewish people in Europe hide their identity
Israel Identifies One Hundred ‘Terrorist Operatives’ Working for U.N. Relief Agency
Other Headlines
Kolanovic Departure Triggers an Echo on Wall Street From 1999
Archegos founder Bill Hwang convicted at fraud trial over fund's collapse
Costco hikes membership fee for the first time since 2017
That is an increase to $65 from $60 for annual memberships. Its higher-tier plan, called “Executive Membership,” will increase to $130 a year from $120.
JPMorgan Chase tops second-quarter revenue expectations on strong investment banking
Wells Fargo shares tumble after net interest income falls short of estimates
Tesla shares close down 8% after report of robotaxi unveiling delay
The full list of states can be found here. Note, NY, CA, NJ are in the 20s.
Ocasio-Cortez introduces articles of impeachment against Supreme Court Justices Thomas and Alito
Lawsuit against Northwestern for anti-white, anti-male hiring reads like DEI horror story
Concerning accusations in this lawsuit. Given the state of the world today, nothing would surprise me anymore. Accusations of falsifying publication records for minority professors seeking tenure, improperly pressuring instructors to increase grades for favored minorities, threats to withhold staff bonuses if they don’t vote to hire unqualified minority candidates and other questionable practices litter the lawsuit filed against the school.
How decriminalisation made Vancouver the fentanyl capital of the world
The city is gripped in an opioid crisis worse than America’s. Locals say overly liberal drug laws have sparked a catastrophe. What idiots thought this was a good idea?
Grid operator tells Californians to prepare for power conservation
Remember, they passed a bill to require all new vehicles sold in 2035 to be EVs. CA lacks the infrastructure to handle the power requirements now, let alone if there were a lot more EVs.
Dartmouth student’s death prompts police hazing probe as university suspends 2 Greek organizations
Man stabbed at Port Authority Bus Terminal subway stop; 4 men wanted
New measles cases at NYC migrant shelter bring city count to 11
Open borders and bad policies have consequences and here is yet another one.
I have not had soda or diet soda in 40 years. I never drink it.
Las Vegas hits record of fifth consecutive day of 115 degrees or greater as heat wave scorches US
I have been to Vegas in July. NEVER again. Dry heat, my ass. It is disgusting.
NBA media rights deal finalized with ESPN, Amazon, NBC. What to know about megadeal
$76 billion in a 11-year deal – $6.9 billion per season – from Disney (ABC/ESPN), NBC and Amazon, according to The Athletic's Andrew Marchand.
Real Estate
Good article about how competitive the market is for apartments in Manhattan. A record-high 24% of leases were signed after bidding wars last month, according to brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. The firms started tracking the metric in 2021, when the rental market began heating up after the pandemic lockdown lifted. There were other signs apartment hunters were under intense pressure in June. Units were listed for an average of just 24 days before getting scooped up, an all-time low. And renters paid a record-high premium of 1.4% above listing prices on average, a data point that often reflects a discount. Even so, rents held fairly steady. The median on new Manhattan leases signed last month was $4,300, unchanged from a year earlier and $50 more than in May. An ample supply of available units — the third-largest amount for June in data going back to 2002 — helped keep prices in check, according to Miller.
Distressed investors see one of the best opportunities in a generation to buy troubled US real estate assets as the commercial property crash continues to roil the market. Private equity firms are already positioning to take advantage. About 64% of the $400 billion of dry powder that the industry has set aside for property investment is targeted at North America, the highest share in two decades, according to data compiled by Preqin. “Some parts of the market are facing declines in value that exceed those during the financial crisis, it said in a report Tuesday, raising the risk for commercial mortgage-backed securities. More than a quarter of CMBS tranches outstanding in 2020 have since been downgraded, the company said. Smaller lenders in the US look particularly vulnerable because of their real estate exposure, and there’s already been turmoil in the sector. New York Community Bancorp had to take a capital injection of more than $1 billion earlier this year after its financial challenges mounted. More regional bank failures are likely because of their property debt, according to Pimco. Based on Oaktree analysis, the number of US banks at risk would exceed levels seen in the 2008 financial crisis levels if CRE values fell by only 20% from their peak. Office values there fell 23% last year, according to the IMF.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #699 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
The best thing at cowfish is the skillet cookie dessert trust me