Opening Comments
My last note was about the reasons Augusta National is such a special place. It generated a lot of responses from crazed golf fans. The most opened links were the Phil Mickelson video about his power of Augusta National on the operational front and the health story about a man’s heart failure after a night of drinking. On the health note, a very healthy reader and friend in his 50s is having bypass surgery out of the blue. Even if you are thin, eat healthy, and exercise, you can have serious heart issues. Be sure to consult with your doctor/cardiologist.
Fraud story. I had been in the process of opening up a new bank account at JPM, and I received a strange call. A man, posing as Michael Miller, told me he was from JPM fraud prevention and suspected fraud in my new account opening. I did not recognize his name or number, but was concerned as I was trying to open an account. I asked, “What entity is opening an account?” He responded, “It is for you.” I knew this was a lie as my new account was under a business name. I put him on hold to get someone at JPM, and “Miller” hung up. My banker told me this was a fraudulent call trying to get information. Did they know I was opening an account, or was it a lucky guess? Either way, proceed with caution, and if you suspect something, do not give them ANY INFORMATION.
Markets
Fed/Trump/Rates
US$ Reserve Currency?
Private Equity Trapped Capital
Florida Michelin Star and Bib Gourmand Guide for 2025
Bezos Sells a $63mm Seattle Home
Ken Griffin Chicago Sales at a Loss
South Florida High End Transaction
San Francisco Commercial R/E Deals
Picture of the Day-The Flow is Back
I wrote a piece about the fact that my once flowing locks were starting to recede, and I was in panic mode. I have been on medicine for exactly four months. The protocol is a combination of a pill called Finasteride and a foam I put on my hair twice a day called Minoxidil. I was skeptical about the efficacy, but tried it, and the results are clear. My hair is growing in pretty well. Let’s not discuss the gray but not the area in the middle that was thinning relative to the picture four months later.
My Favorite TV Shows of the 70s, 80s & 90s
In the 1970s, there were very few TV station choices pre-cable TV. Some amazing TV shows from that era would no longer be politically correct today. Although there was some overlap between my 1970s and 1980s favorites, I only mention them in one decade. It was shockingly hard to narrow down the list, and I am embarrassed about how many times I changed it up. I will highlight a few shows from each decade as well.
When it comes to 1970s TV, MASH was my clear favorite, and I watched all 251 episodes. The series ended in 1983, and I remember being in tears. After school, I would like to watch Happy Days, and who was cooler than the Fonz? Redd Foxx killed me in Sanford and Son and who was a better character than Archie Bunker? I vividly recall the kiss with Sammy Davis. Archie Bunker’s face is legendary. Although I put it in notable mentions, I loved Welcome Back Kotter and Vinny Barbarino.
When it comes to the 1980s, Johnny Carson steals the show. He was my all-time favorite. The Carson Show ran from 1962 to 1992, and I believe he was the best late-night host of all time by a mile. I thought he was so damn funny, even as a kid. Although a lot of kids dream of being a movie star, I wanted to be Johnny Carson. His skits killed me, and my favorite was Carnac the Magnificent. Cheers was one of the funniest shows of all time, and the cast was just amazing. Growing up in Miami, Crockett and Tubbs were a staple chasing drug dealers on Miami Vice. Yes, I wore outfits including a white suit to emulate Crockett going to high school in South Florida in the 1980s.
When it comes to the 1990s, I had to include Sopranos given the debut occurred in January of 1999 and is my favorite TV series of all time. Tony Soprano might be the best character in the history of TV. Obviously, the cast from Seinfeld took comedy to another level. George Costanza was so irritating and funny. Friends was a show we all looked forward to each week, and again thought the cast was brilliant. I loved the cutting-edge show NYPD Blue and the character, Sipowicz.
I am sure you all have your favorites from past decades. What did I miss? What should not be on my list? I know I am going to hear from you.
Quick Bites
Another volatile week in stocks with the major indices losing 1-5-2%+ on the holiday-shortened week. Friday, the Dow underperformed as UnitedHealth stock fell 22% post earnings. The company slashed its forecast due to higher-than-expected medical costs on Medicare plans. Nvidia fell 10% in two days after disclosing a $5.5bn charge tied to exporting GPUs. The yield on the 10-Year was -6bps (4.33%) since last week but has been incredibly volatile. With respect to markets, uncertainty, and concern, this article outlines fears that a Trump social media post will send stocks reeling. President Trump, I know it is hard, but before you post, take a deep breath and consider the impacts. Real damage has been inflicted on confidence and the economy. It is hard to plan and budget when the goal posts move every 48 hours. Shortages of goods will start soon if the situation with China is not resolved.
The Fed is in a tough place. Growth is slowing, and the uncertainty due to the sloppy rollout of tariffs has created a litany of issues for consumers and companies alike. Powell admitted on Wednesday that the Fed could find itself in a dilemma between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. Post Powell’s comments, Trump called for the Fed to cut rates, saying Powell’s ‘termination cannot come fast enough. Additionally, Trump spoke with former Fed Governor Warsh about firing Powell. Given the uncertainty and rapidly evolving tariff situation and the potential impact on inflation, I am not of the view that rates should be cut today, but I do believe multiple cuts will be necessary in the coming months as the economy slows. I am also not supportive of the President trying to influence the Fed and rate decisions. I do not believe Trump will fire Powell, and I do not think Powell will resign. However, if Trump were to fire Powell, I believe the market reaction would not be a positive one. Last I checked, futures are pricing in 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Is the US$ losing its reserve currency status? If you read the press, there is a growing group that believes that is the case. I am convinced the US$ is losing its dominance, but not convinced there is any currency replacing it near or medium term as the reserve currency. I love this short video that shows the changes in reserve currencies since 1900. In 1947, the British Pound was at 83%. By 1973, the US$ $ had grown to 85% and the Pound was only 7% of reserve currencies. It shows how dominant currencies can become irrelevant over time. To all those US$ haters, what currency will take over and replace it? I don’t see the Euro, Yen, Pound or Yuan replacing it. However, recently, gold is acting as the currency of choice (+26% YTD, hitting all-time highs each week). Yes, I believe we will continue to see a deterioration in US$ dominance that has been happening for 50 years. Could I see it at 40% by 2050? Yes. Can I see it at 10% and some other country at 50%, unlikely.
A reader who runs a VC fund sent me these charts that show PE firms are sitting on a record number of companies they want to sell. Private equity firms are sitting on a lot of trapped capital. The amount of unrealized value the funds owe their investors has hit record levels, according to an analysis by credit-ratings firm Moody’s Ratings. Rising rates, M&A, and IPO challenges contribute to these charts. After peaking in 2021, MA& activity has been well below the 2021 levels. This WSJ article, “Private Equity World Engulfed by Perfect Storm,” outlines PE firms that have seen stocks underperform. Even before President Trump’s tariff chaos, buyout firms had been struggling to sell their portfolio companies and return money to anxious investors. Now, recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill. The amount of unrealized value the funds owe their investors has hit record levels, according to an analysis by credit-ratings firm Moody’s Ratings. Firms are sitting on a record 29,000 companies worth $3.6 trillion, half of which they have owned for five years or more.
The Florida Michelin Star guide came out last week. A few years ago, Florida had ZERO Michelin Stars. Today, there are 31 primarily in Miami, Tampa and Orlando with a few other cities having one. The massive wealth migration over the past five years significantly improved the restaurant game in Florida. No, we are not in NYC, but South Florida has come a long way. Of note, in 2026, Michelin will expand the reach to include all of Florida as they search for additional eateries to add to the list. In addition to the stars, Michelin also has a lower designation, “Bib Gourmand” for high-quality, flavorful food at a reasonable price. South Florida is no longer a culinary wasteland.
Tariffs
I thought it would be interesting to examine what is happening in freight markets after the ever-changing tariff policies. This CNBC article suggests major shipment cancellations, and the charts below tell you all you need to know. Another unintended consequence of tariffs will be the impact on port traffic, resulting in reduced crane operations, lower fees, truck transport, lower rail usage, and warehouse storage. Trump also announced fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports to bring back US shipbuilding. Again, the US will not be a major manufacturing hub using labor in my lifetime.
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump, Meloni optimistic a deal can be reached
The suggestion is that other deals are falling in place and numerous countries have reached out to negotiate.
First Shockwaves of Trump’s Tariffs Are About to Hit the World Economy
Hermès to hike U.S. prices for iconic bags and scarves in response to tariffs
Comments suggest Hermès will look to “fully offset” the 10% universal tariffs, but not yet cover the 20% EU tariffs.
‘We’re going to have to raise prices’ if Trump keeps tariffs, says coffee importer
My lifetime spend on coffee is ZERO, as I never tasted it.
Politics
At the beginning of the Trump Administration, I wrote that $500bn in savings by DOGE would be a win. According to the DOGE site, $155bn has been saved thus far. There is no chance to get to the $2 trillion goal Musk set out to achieve, and I have been consistent on that point. Waste, fraud, and abuse are being exposed while taxpayer money is being saved. These are good things, but I have not always agreed with the sloppy disclosures and roll-out of the DOGE program.
Trump’s approval rating on the economy drops to lowest of his presidential career, CNBC Survey finds
Photos Show Massive '50501' Anti-Trump Protests Across the Country
I am a bit surprised that so many are rallying around Garcia. There is mounting evidence of his involvement with MS-13. He is suspected of both human and labor trafficking. He is in the US illegally. His wife went to court twice, claiming abuse. Multiple courts have called him an MS-13 gang member, and he was found with other gang members. I am not sure why any politician would want to go all-in on this guy.
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,'
Trump promised he would end the war in 24 hours. Are they really throwing in the towel so soon? Lots of needless deaths and destruction due to this war. I believe that Putin would not have started this under the Trump administration.
Ukraine is ‘90%’ ready to agree to US peace proposal — now it’s up to Russia
AOC fundraising soars as the New York rep and Bernie Sanders barnstorm U.S. against Trump
Nate Silver thinks AOC will be the Democratic candidate in 2028. AOC drew a 3-mile-long line for her rally in California. I happen to disagree with most of her policies and I am not a fan of the fact that she hates Israel and literally cried when the US funded the Iron Dome. She voted against condemning Hamas, voted against condemning antisemitism on college campuses and voted against aid to Israel. Her “Green New Deal” would bankrupt America and cost countless trillions. However, she connects with people, she is savvy on social media and the media is obsessed with her. AOC’s growing support suggests she is doing something right.
Kamala Harris leads California governor’s race — but 50% say the former VP shouldn’t run
Middle East
A Depleted Hamas Is So Low on Cash That It Can’t Pay Its Fighters
Israel’s targeted killings, aid cuts have disrupted the militant group’s sources of cash and ability to distribute it in Gaza
Trump rejected Israeli plan for striking Iranian nuclear program
The president reportedly chose to pursue talks with Iran over supporting Israeli strikes and told Israeli officials he would not back them while negotiations are ongoing.
Iran and the US move to expert-level talks over Tehran’s nuclear program after negotiations in Rome
White House claims letter to Harvard with demands was an ‘unauthorized’ mistake
Jewish undergraduate enrollment at Harvard-from 25% to 5% in less than 20 years.
Other Headlines
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunges, signaling worsening conditions
The April Philly manufacturing index dropped sharply to -26.4 from +12.5. The index measures changes in business growth in PA, NJ and DE.
The number of Americans working multiple jobs jumped by 76,000 in March, to a record 8.94 million.
Approximately 163mm Americans are employed, and 9mm are working multiple jobs to get by.
Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years
Netflix posts major earnings beat as revenue grows 13% in first quarter
No tariff issues here!
Google hit with 2nd antitrust blow, adding to concerns about ads business
Musk's SpaceX is frontrunner to build Trump's Golden Dome missile shield
Hertz shares surge more than 50% after Bill Ackman takes big stake
Global Payments shares -17% after company announces $24 billion Worldpay deal
In China, 50% of new vehicle sales are EV or plug-in hybrid and was only 1% in 2014. In the US, the rate today is 11% and 23% in Europe.
More rich Americans are opening Swiss bank accounts fearing U.S. risks
Travel to the U.S. from almost everywhere is falling under Trump
FSU shooting: Six injured, one critically; man arrested; campus locked down
We send our kids off to school and now need to worry about them being shot. The world is a scary place. One of the shooters was the son of the sheriff’s deputy. He supported white supremacist views.
Straphanger, 21, stabbed multiple times with metal knife in random NYC attack
Mom was nearly 5 times legal limit when she drunkenly crashed car with 3 kids
Haley Joel Osment hurls anti-Jewish slurs at cops in shocking arrest video
Remember the movie where he said, “I see dead people?” When I look at this washed-up actor, I see an antisemitic loser.
Colossal squid captured on video in the deep sea for first time
The oceans are remarkable and must be respected. I have seen amazing things during my travels across the world, surfing and fishing. The lowlight for me was snorkeling in Fiji and seeing poisonous sea snakes.
Scientists find strongest evidence yet of life on an alien planet
I remain of the view we are not alone and feel the government should release all relevant files. I have spoken with pilots who have told me they have witnessed events that defy the laws of gravity.
Health
Want to reduce your dementia risk? A shingles vaccine could help
I had shingles at age 27 and it was shockingly painful. I am yet to get the vaccine. After the debacle of COVID vaccines, I am a bit gun-shy.
Americans Are Obsessed With Protein and It’s Driving Nutrition Experts Nuts
Sleep training is no longer just for babies. Some schools are teaching teens.
Real Estate
Billionaire Jeff Bezos Sells Seattle Mansion for a Record $63 Million—After He and Lauren Sanchez Relocated to Miami I am in shock. Bezos paid $37.5mm for the 9,240 foot property in 2019. The pictures look nice and it is on the water, but $63mm for that seems insane to me. There are a lot of other homes I would buy in a lot of other places before I would spend that kind of money in Seattle.
Ken Griffin’s losses on luxury Chicago real estate expanded to almost $30 million with sales of the final two floors out of the four he assembled within the No. 9 West Walton Street condo tower. The billionaire Citadel founder sold the 35th and 36th floors of the building Tuesday for $15.9 million, down from the more than $24.6 million he paid for the unfinished units as part of a package that also included the 37th and 38th floors he bought in 2017 for $58.75 million, according to public listing data.
Despite the slowdown in some markets, the high-end in South Florida has seen a fair number of deals in recent weeks. In the past couple of weeks, six homes in my community went under contract with asking prices between $5-23mm. I had shown homes a couple weeks ago in Jupiter at Admirals Cove. Two of the homes went under contract in recent days in the $15-16mm range. The season is ending, and I have seen some sellers more anxious to be sure they get out of properties to not have to carry it over the summer. Especially some builders. Loans, taxes, and maintenance costs are no joke on these expensive houses.
Interesting article about fire sales in San Francisco in the commercial real estate market. In San Francisco’s financial district, the One Montgomery building evokes the opulence of America’s turn of the 20th century gilded age. These days, the property exemplifies the city’s shifting fortunes: Ghazi Shami, chief executive officer of the record label Empire, bought it in January for $22.5 million, more than 70% below its selling price only six years before. Jony Ive, the former Apple Inc. executive who now runs the design studio LoveFrom, has spent more than $100 million buying and renovating property in the city’s Jackson Square neighborhood. Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry purchased a building near the Chase Center with intentions to redevelop it as headquarters for his Thirty Ink business. Neil Mehta, founder of tech-focused investment firm Greenoaks Capital, is the backer of several limited liability companies that purchased buildings on Fillmore Street in the storied Pacific Heights neighborhood. Venture capitalist David Sacks, recently named as President Donald Trump’s artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency czar, is a limited partner in projects by local developer Brick & Timber Collective. Wealthy and savvy business people getting involved is a positive development.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #779 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.