Opening Comments
Picture of the Day
Night Fishing for Yellowtail in Shark Infested Waters
Quick Bites
Markets, Nat Gas Falling, Gasoline Price Charts
Ray Dalio on Cash, Work From Home, Dorsey/TWTR/Crypto
Foods to Avoid, Lolita Express, Chris Cuomo Suspended
Harris Tweet on Smollett
Other Headlines-Expanded Today-Lots of Interesting News Stories
Virus/Vaccine
Data
Omicron Map of Countries
Per Capita States-Cases
Moderna CEO on Omicron
Aged 0-2 in Hospital in South Africa
MI Record Hospitalizations
Real Estate
My General Comments-Housing Prices
Most Expensive Cities In the World
Opening Comments
The first Omicron case in the US in CA. Discussed in markets and Virus sections.
Open rates are consistently in the 55-60% % range now. Remember, peak was 90%+ during the height of the pandemic when we were all locked inside with nowhere to go. I still hear a lot of people stopped receiving the report due to firewalls believing anything from Substack is spam. I am intrigued that many of the most opened links are in “Other Headlines” as the readers are taking the time to learn more about stories. Remember, if you like what you read, please hit the heart button.
Shockingly, this arthritis medicine, Meloxicam is good. Plenty of readers gave me crap about my old age incidents and latest diagnosis and they were well-deserved. On the medical front, it is very challenging to get good doctors in South Florida. So many new residents and not enough good doctors. It can take months to get appointments and many will not see new patients. Finding one who attended a real medical school is not easy. They studied in Central American and the Caribbean which is not exactly the medical schools I want my physicians attending.
A recent well-received report was entitled, “My Waist is Expanding Faster than Inflation.” In it, I disappointingly discussed a pair of fancy pants (Alexander McQueen) which still had tags and I was unable to button them recently. I found a use for them. My son, Jack, has zero dress clothes and shockingly, he fit into them perfectly. Jack, they are not yours. You are renting them. I will fit in those again even if it means seeing a surgeon.
Today was incredibly busy for me with meetings and tonight I have a concert for saxophonist Dave Koz, a platinum record recording artist. I plan on checking out Art Basel Miami on Thursday. It’s a huge, privately owned high-end art fair, held annually on Miami Beach. If readers are down there, let me know I will be walking around for a while. Everything there is incredibly overpriced, but I find interesting ideas. It is rare I can find interesting cultural events in South Florida, so two in less than 24 hours is a big deal. We ain’t in NYC anymore.
Picture of the Day
Every year, I plant my herb garden. Last year, I planted tomatoes which overtook my garden and destroyed everything else. It was an unmitigated disaster. I had never had success in growing tomatoes and they turned out to be Jack and the Beanstalk from a growth perspective. This year, I passed on the tomatoes, but planted rosemary, cilantro, parsley, chives, thyme, broccoli, cauliflower, pomegranate, strawberries, lettuce…. It is fantastic when I cook to go to the garden and get fresh herbs for seasoning. The growing season is October through May and then the heat and humidity come and only Rosemary grows.
Night Fishing for Yellowtail in Shark Infested Waters
My readers know I fish a lot and enjoy it. I tend to catch a good deal of fish and use a vacuum sealer to store them in the freezer. Sometimes, I have over 50 pounds of fillets of Mahi, Wahoo, Snapper, Grouper, Tuna, Lobster, Swordfish…depending on the season. I had not gone for Yellowtail in years and when I have done it near me, I am disappointed as they are so over-fished, they tend to be quite small. It is a good amount of work and will explain why.
Yellowtail fishing tends to be hottest at night. We left the dock at about 7:15pm on my boat and went to Delray (10 miles north from my inlet). It is pitch black (see the picture below.) Once you get to your destination, you anchor the boat and then use bags of chum (chopped up fish) to attract the big fish. It takes time for the chum to work. Yes, it smells disgusting and it gets all over your boat which makes it a pain to clean the next day. We fished in 87 feet of water and the depth chart picture shows you the fish coming up for the chum. You can fish on the bottom with a weight or free-line bait and let the current take it. I did both, but had more success with Yellowtail free-lining and letting the current take your bait rather than dropping down to the bottom.
Incredibly dark at 8pm. Eerie. I would not want to be swimming out here despite being very close to shore.
The red on the bottom is the sea floor. The squiggly lines are fish.
Unfortunately, the chum attracts the sharks, and our boat was surrounded. Given the lack of light, I was unable to photograph pictures of sharks this night. It is a race to try to overpower these SHOCKINGLY strong flags (nickname for Yellowtail, given the tail looks like a flag). Pulling in a 3lb flag is much more challenging than you would think it would be. I have caught massive fish which were easier to bring in than these beauties. Given it is relatively shallow water, I was dumbfounded about my inability to over power these small fish. If you pause for 2 seconds, the toothy predators lurking beneath the boat pounce. I only have approximately 20 seconds of video. The first part shows me driving the boat to our destination in pitch black conditions. The 2nd part is Dustin (expert fisherman who is 5’11” 200 lbs and bench presses 485 lbs.) losing a fish to a shark. Despite his skill and strength, you can see what happened and the dejection on his face. I say, “Uh Oh,” because it is clear a shark got his yellowtail. I caught about a half dozen snapper, but lost 10 or more to sharks.
Nice Yellowtail next to Dustin’s size 13 boots.
Some of the catch. More snapper in the cooler.
Yellowtail are nice looking fish and we had a big bucket of them.
We got back to the dock at 1:45am, and it was too late and dark to clean the boat. I went back Monday morning and spent three hours getting the stinky fish remnants off my deck and engines. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed myself, but the frustration of losing fish to the sharks and then the clean-up took some of the joy out of it. I made yellowtail ceviche with shallots, scallions, pomegranate, cilantro, lemon and lime juice…I also sauteed some as well. Fresh fish is delicious.
Now that the weather is cooling off, the Sailfish and Wahoo should be getting thicker and the real fun begins. I will soon have days where I will get 8-10 of these sailfish. Yes, you need a glove as the bill of a sailfish is like sandpaper. I know this as the first time my hand got chewed up, but good.
Quick Bites
Markets were volatile this week in both directions as I suggested. Monday rally and then Tuesday witnessed a sharp sell-off based on Powell’s comments that the Fed has shifted focus to fighting inflation and its negative impacts. He spoke of reducing monthly bond buying earlier than expected, which spooked the markets which have become addicted to the morphine drip of low rates and Fed support. I do not question his decision as I have been suggesting he do this for countless months. I do question the timing on the heels of Omicron uncertainty. To me, it means he fears inflation is worse than he thought or Powell would have waited a week to see the impact of Omicron. Remember, the Fed has used the word “transitory” when describing inflation for as long as I can remember and I suggested it would be sticker. Wednesday, the market started out hot and there was the 1st confined Omicron case in California and markets sold off sharply. The Dow fell 461 points to 34,022, after being up more than 520 points at the high of the day. The S&P 500 lost nearly 1.2% to end at 4,513. The broad-market index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 13. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.8% to 15,254 after rising as much as 1.8% earlier in the session Wednesday’s moves continue a volatile streak of the last four sessions as the omicron threat emerged. The 5 day chart for S&P is telling. This is the worst two-day rout for the S&P since October 2020. How did the market not believe Omicron is coming to the US? I remain less concerned despite the fact that it is early. I am not reading about people getting very bad reactions yet. The 1st case in CA was a double vaccinated person and is not hospitalized, but had traveled to South Africa. The VIX is up to 31 and was +14% today and is at the highs since February. The VIX was at 15 a month ago. Oil was down slightly and crypto gave up earlier gains. The 10-year treasury is now back down to 1.4%. I suspect some macro funds would have been hurt by these volatile moves.
Some good news on natural gas prices which have fallen sharply in recent weeks on more mild than expected weather forecasts. A mild winter would be welcome, but am concerned that one hearty cold spell in the Midwest & Northeast, will bring prices up sharply. Other commodities are off recent highs as of close 11-30 (Lumber -50%, Iron Ore-60%, Steel-30%, Soybeans -30%, Corn-20%, oil -16%). I am sure I missed some, but did it quickly. Point is some commodities are decently off the insane levels of months ago. However, Jefferies came out with an interesting report suggesting oil could hit $150/barrel given 84% of the world’s energy demand was met by fossil fuels and the “political attack” has removed the incentive to invest in them.
We all know gas prices have increased sharply and feel it at the pump. I found this WSJ article interesting, given the graphics. I attached a couple below to put the price changes into perspective. My readers know I like to call out hypocrisy. Pelosi and Schumer blasted Trump for high gas prices and things are worse under President Biden. Will they dare make a comment?
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) suggests cash is not a safe place right now despite heightened market volatility. I am not Dalio’s biggest fan, but his net worth is approximately $20bn, so he has done something right. “Cash is not a safe investment, is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation,” the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” All my readers know I have been all over inflation for almost one year. I agree with him about inflation, but finding places for cash is not super simple today.
I have written extensively on the fact that work from home, work from anywhere would be a big change due to the pandemic. I feel it will stick far more than many people believe. In a related matter, this WSJ article is entitled “Workers Quit Jobs in Droves to Become Their Own Bosses-Seeking flexibility or escape from corporate bureaucracy, employees discover their inner entrepreneur.” The pandemic has unleashed a historic burst in entrepreneurship and self-employment. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are striking out on their own as consultants, retailers and small-business owners. The move helps explain the ongoing shake-up in the world of work, with more people looking for flexibility, anxious about covid exposure, upset about vaccine mandates or simply disenchanted with pre-pandemic office life. It is also aggravating labor shortages in some industries and adding pressure on companies to revamp their employment policies. This is a link to a Bloomberg story about what Goldman Sachs is doing to keep employees. “We’re focused on delivering energy optimization, resilience and mental-health programs that support our people in caring for themselves and their families,” Bentley de Beyer, Goldman Sachs global head of human capital management, said Monday in an emailed statement.
I am spending countless hours each week on crypto to better understand it and the more time I spend, the more I realize we are in early stages. I had feared I missed the boat, but now do not believe that is the case. Jack Dorsey announced he is leaving Twitter (-21.5% YTD) and it appears it is because of his believe in crypto and Square’s role in the space. Dorsey changed the name of Square to Block. I presume it is around the Blockchain theme. I will be writing more about crytpo and am planning on sharing my findings. My mind has been blown by what I have learned thus far. I will say that I am disappointed in the customer service of Coinbase, and from the reviews, virtually everyone else agrees. Below Dorsey is a picture of my phone holding for almost 3 hours for Coinbase support and wrote the Rosen Report while on hold. I was told, “Due to high call volumes we cannot help you at this time,” and it hung up on me. I have never seen worse customer service of any company, EVER. The company has a market cap of $68bn. I do not know how this is possible. I set up an account with Blockchain.com quickly instead. I will be allocating more capital to fund managers and doing some myself. I just have no call on these emerging crypto currencies and which will win. Coinbase would not allow me to wire money from any of my banks and I was unable to contact support despite multiple attempts and a total of 5 hours of hold time.
Interesting article by a Harvard doctor on foods to avoid. Some of these are easier to avoid than others. Wine would be my downfall. Details in the article on each item listed. No matter how old you are, it’s never too late to start eating in a way that gives you the best possible chance of staving off dementia as you age and making sure that you feel focused and sharp every day. As a nutritional psychiatrist, faculty member at Harvard Medical School and author of “This Is Your Brain on Food,” I study how our gut bacteria can trigger metabolic processes and brain inflammation that impact memory. Existing studies point to the idea that we may be able to reduce the possibility of dementia by avoiding foods that can compromise our gut bacteria and weaken our memory and focus. Below are the foods the doctor tries to avoid.
Added Sugars
Fried Foods
High-glycemic-load carbohydrates
Alcohol
Nitrates
I would pay big money to find out who Jeffrey Epstein was blackmailing all those years. The list is long and distinguished with major businessmen and politicians. The Ghislaine Maxwell case is underway and the pilot of the “Lolita Express” testified as to who went on the plane. The pilot confirmed Trump, Clinton and Prince Andrew flew on the plane as well as Kevin Spacey, Chris Tucker, Itzhak Perlman, Senators John Glenn and George Mitchell. Articles over the year mention numerous people from Tom Barrack, Mort Zuckerman, Woody Allen, Alan Dershowitz, Bill Bar, Ken Starr, Harvey Weinstein and others as having some association with Epstein. Jes Staley just left his role as CEO of Barclays over his Epstein connection. Leon Black paid Epstein over $150mm for legal and estate services, and I also read large loans were forgiven on top of that. Mind you, Epstein never earned an undergrad degree, nor was he a lawyer. I am not sure how much Les Wexner gave Epstein, but it is in the many millions as well. I am looking for friends who want to hire me and pay me $150mm for services I am not qualified to offer. Someone knows all and hope at some point we all find out. I am shocked Maxwell and others have not let it out as to what really happened. I would have thought Jeff would have left instructions to lawyers to release information upon his “suicide.” This link has all kinds of pictures of the plane. Looks very dated to me.
There are multiple news outlets running stories about Chris Cuomo and his role with his brother’s troubles. On Tuesday, CNN suspended Cuomo indefinitely over his role in advising his brother. FINALLY! CNBC headline: CNN host Chris Cuomo used his media sources to find out info on brother Andrew’s accusers, records show.” This is a Fox headline: CNN’s Chris Cuomo snooped on Ronan Farrow’s reporting on his brother, relayed 'intel' to Andrew Cuomo aide. Here is CNN: CNN to conduct 'thorough review' of documents showing Chris Cuomo's intimate role advising brother Andrew Cuomo. I wrote about the conflict of interest here previously and felt it was inappropriate, but now it seems even more so than I previously believed.
Below was a Tweet sent out by Kamala Harris in January 2019 regarding Smollett. He is now on trial and the prosecutors have video of Smollett and his hired Black “racist muggers” doing a “dry-run” prior to what he claims was a racially motivated crime. This Post story details texts sent from Smollett to the “attackers” saying “I love you,” after the alleged incident. Remember, this event was national news with Chicago police spending 3,000 hours investigating the alleged incident in which a noose and bleach were allegedly involved. With all the crime in Chicago, those police should have been used elsewhere. Smollet’s lawyers claim he “is a real victim” of a “real crime,” despite the evidence to the contrary including the $3,500 Smollett paid to his attackers. VP Harris, any comment now?
Other Headlines
“Way overdue for a correction’: Long-time bull Jim Paulsen delivers a 10% to 15% pullback forecast”
Mortgage refinance demand plunged 15% last week, but could now reverse
Elon Musk has a $2.5 billion reason to move to Texas: avoiding California capital gains tax
Salesforce fourth quarter guidance misses Wall Street expectations
The stock was -7% despite broader market strength on Wednesday.
Elon Musk tells SpaceX employees that Starship engine crisis is creating a ‘risk of bankruptcy.’ “The Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago,” Musk wrote.
Facebook-Giphy: Meta told to sell GIF sharing site by UK regulator
Goldman CEO Warns NYC Must ‘Keep Itself Attractive’ to Workers
“New York has to be aware that there are good choices, and it’s got to keep itself attractive,” Solomon said in comments released Tuesday from a Financial Times conference. “Incentives matter, taxes matter, cost of living matters.”
De Blasio opening first legal shooting galleries for drug users in the US
Wall Street execs ‘pleading’ for JPMorgan to cancel event in crime-ridden San Francisco
Supreme Court signals willingness to uphold abortion limits in Mississippi case
Can Media Cover 'Build Back Better' Fairly When It Awards Them Gov Goodies?
Trump tested positive for Covid few days before Biden debate, chief of staff says in new book
Space Force Gen. David Thompson says US satellites are attacked on daily basis
According to the article, China and Russia regularly strike US satellites with lasers, radio frequency jammers and cyber attacks.
Tiger Woods says return to top in golf not realistic after car crash
I will be surprised if he ever truly competes again at a high level given his back coupled with his car accidents and age.
Shocking to me what an Athletic Director said to this young man.
Women’s Tennis Suspends Events in China Following Allegation Against Government Official
South Beach hotel rooms going for up to $27,000 amid Art Basel rush
No Omicron fears here. I am heading down tomorrow and will see for myself
‘West Side Story’ First Reactions: ‘Top-Tier Spielberg,’ Rachel Zegler’s Star Shines Bright
Virus/Vaccine
Cases are -2% for the two-week period and are averaging 83k/day. Hospitalizations grew by 15% and are 55k/day, but the best news is deaths which were -16% and are at 893/day. Just one week ago, we were at over 1,100 deaths/day. Separately, Omicron was found in Canada with at least two cases. The second chart shows declines by region. Unfortunately, all were going in the right direction and in the past couple days both the Northeast and South have ticked up.
This chart is from yesterday on where Omicron has been detected. The WHO suggests South Africa hospitalizations are rising, but impact of Omicron is still not certain.
I thought these stats are interesting. Florida now has the lowest cases per 100,000 at 6, while Michigan has the highest at 68, New Hampshire is at 67 and Minnesota is at 60. The Florida vaccination rate is 62%, while Michigan is at 54%, New Hampshire at 65% and Minnesota at 62%. The national average is 59%.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel has left no doubt whether he’s taking a glass half-full or half-empty approach to the emergence of the new omicron coronavirus variant. He told the Financial Times there’s no world where current vaccines are as effective as they have been against the delta variant. And he suggested the drop-off could be significant. “I think it’s going to be a material drop. I just don’t know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I’ve talked to . . . are like, ‘This is not going to be good’.”
Children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane in South Africa, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. More kids are being admitted than during the early stages of the country entering the current fourth wave of infections, although a similar trend occurred during the third wave when delta was dominant, said Waasila Jassat, public health specialist at the institute. I checked for perspective. In total, less than 1% of hospitalizations were for age 0-4 in the US. However, today, ages 0-4 account for 1.2% of those.
Michigan reached a new record of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 on Monday with 4,181 hospitalized with confirmed cases of the virus, the most since the pandemic began. In the state, more than 80% of total hospital inpatient beds and 84% of intensive care unit beds are full, according to the state health department. Hospitalizations have been increasing for 19 weeks, and Michigan continues to have the most cases and highest inpatient bed use in the country. The Monday tally breaks the previous record of 4,158 adults hospitalized on April 19. The vast majority of COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated, according to the state. In the last 30 days of data (Oct. 14-Nov. 12), 72% of cases, 71% of hospitalizations and 75% of deaths were among individuals who were not fully vaccinated.
Real Estate
I wrote in the past couple months that the sustained gains in the real estate market are unsustainable. This CNBC article is suggesting some small reductions from prior months. I am thinking many markets will slow more. Home prices rose 19.5% in September year over year, down from a 19.8% annual gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. The 10-city composite rose 17.8% from a year ago, down from an 18.6% gain in August. The 20-city composite gained 19.1% year-over-year, down from 19.6% in the previous month. Cities with the highest price increases were Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami. Although inventory is limited at the high end in South Florida. I am seeing more outrageously priced homes sit unsold for longer. The house across the street from mine has an unbelievable lot (1 acre), but the house was built in 2003 and is tired in my opinion. It has now been on for 123 days with a couple price reductions. It is now asking $19.5mm which I believe is still too high by millions. Another high-end home was taken off the market after some outrageous asking price. “The market has cooled since the beginning of the year, when dozens of competing bids, contingency waivers and price escalation clauses made home shopping a struggle, especially for first-time buyers. A growing number of homeowners are preparing to list in the next six months, hinting at an uncharacteristically active winter season,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com.
Tel Aviv, Israel, is now the most expensive city in the world to live in, according to a biannual report by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Israeli city topped the EIU’s December 2021 worldwide cost of living index for the first time ever, climbing up from fifth place last year. The EIU said that Tel Aviv rose up the rankings mainly because the Israeli currency, the shekel, had soared, “buoyed against the dollar by Israel’s successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout.”
The most expensive cities in the world 2021
Tel Aviv, Israel
Paris, France
Singapore
Zurich, Switzerland
Hong Kong, China
New York, U.S.
Geneva, Swizterland
Copenhagen, Denmark
Los Angeles, U.S.
Osaka, Japan
Eric , I’m 62 & my shoulder is sore (3weeks) I’m going to look into purchasing some meloxicam . Since I’ve moved down to Delray, I swim everyday, healing time isn’t as rapid as when I was younger . Question : have you ever tried CBD as a health ingredient? I do & it helped with my high blood pressure. Thanks for sharing . Stewart