Opening Comments
Picture of the Day-Racial Equity for Drive By Shootings
Pandemonium at Sea-Tripled on Sailfish
Quick Bites
Markets, Bitcoin Milestones
Elizabeth Homes Guilty, Global Supply Chain
China/Russia Alliance
Crazy Excess Death Data due to Pandemic-MUST READ
Biden Disapproval Rating, New DA-NYC Crime Rules
Crypto Restaurant
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Data-1mm cases on Jan 2
New Variant in France
9% of Teens Getting Enough Exercise
CDC Data on Child Hospitalizations
COVID Deaths 18 and Under into Perspective
Real Estate-Expanded Section
South Florida Craziness from Miami to Palm Beach
Everyone Is Moving to Florida. What That Means for Financial Advisors and Their Clients
$133mm Bel Air Crypto King Estate
Austin, TX Rental Market
Easy to Follow Video on Real Estate in the Metaverse-I am at a Loss
Opening Comments
I hope everyone had a great holiday and spent quality time with family and friends despite this never-ending pandemic. I understand some schools and offices are remaining remote for a few weeks as well. Hopefully, that keeps you somewhere warm for another couple weeks. At my daughter’s school over the past 6 weeks, I would guess there were a 5 total of positive COVID cases. On Tuesday, there dozens. In a NYC school with 60 kids in the grade, 18 tested positive. Chicago public schools are going remote due to the pandemic.
I regularly receive great gifts from readers. I have been sent wine, liquor, pizza, books, candy, hats, T-Shirts, sweatshirts…. I truly appreciate all the generosity. Please be sure to have your name in the package. I am resourceful, but tracking down who sent me stuff is becoming a full-time job as half of it does not have any sender info.
Readers are sending me more story ideas, and it is greatly appreciated. The other day, I received over 150 ideas. It is overwhelming, but definitely helps me to write these long-winded stories about the world. One reader sent me this, “How in the hell do you write this much two times a week? It took me 30 minutes to read every word and I loved it.” Apologies. Read what interests you. I am fired up that many of the most opened links are in other headlines, which means I am covering what you want to read. My Quick Bites are summarized news with my opinion, so unless you are incredibly interested in that topic, no need to click the link.
Been jammed all day. I am sure there are a few typos. My apologies. I am having serious Substack issues and the customer service is challenging. No phone and email responses take time.
Picture of the Day-Racial Equity for Drive By Shootings
A reader sent me this story and I did not believe it was true, but double checked and found that the lunacy was accurate on at least four news outlets and the Washington State website. More and more cities and states are becoming uninhabitable for me due to the absurdity of laws, rules, regulations, taxes, quality of life, crime, cost of living… In this bout of absurdity, in Washington state, Representatives Tara Simmons (D) and David Hackney (D) proposed House Bill 1992. “HB 1692 - 2021-22 Promoting racial equity in the criminal legal system by eliminating drive-by shooting as a basis for elevating murder in the first degree to aggravated murder in the first degree.” Even if this bill does not pass, the fact that people bring it to be considered should concern everyone. Your vote matters. Think about who you are electing. Lori Lightfoot and Bill DeBlasio were elected officials who have done nothing but harm once great cities. Marjorie Taylor Green is another example of lunacy, and there are countless others. Think before you vote.
Pandemonium at Sea-Tripled on Sailfish
On Sunday, January 2nd, I went fishing on my boat in rough seas and heavy winds. The goal was to catch sailfish or wahoo by kite fishing which entails flying a kite and lines coming off the kite to present the bait fish on top of the water (picture below). Managing the kites is challenging as you need to keep the bait on top of the water. Winds blow the kite higher, the fish get out of the water and you need to let out line to get it back in. Conversely, the wind dies a little, the kite drops putting your bait well under the water, and you need to reel in the rods to get to bait back on top of the water. We use goggle eyes as bait, which are hearty and strong fish with big eyes. They are the most sought after and expensive bait in South Florida ($80-125/dozen).
We got soaked going out to fish, given the challenging conditions. Fishing started off quite slow and we were not seeing any action. Given my lack of patience, I was getting frustrated and was texting other fisherman to find out what was going on elsewhere. I received a text, “Sailfish are everywhere.” I responded, “Everywhere, but where I am right now.”
In the next 30 seconds, we hooked into three sailfish at once. The coveted, “Triple” is fun and exciting, but leads to chaos and pandemonium as lines are crossing and people are scrambling all over the boat. We were fishing 6 lines when it happened, and we needed to bring in the other lines to try to reduce the likelihood of tangles. Remember, these sails are 45-90lbs and strong fish which can run hundreds of yards, and we are using light tackle. Two of the sails went in the same direction, so we chased them down, while mine went the opposite way and almost took all the line off my spool.
As you can see in the video (profanity included), the sailfish were jumping and we landed the two going in the same direction (LINK HERE). You need to touch the leader for it to be a legal catch and we release them right away to focus on the last one to be sure we went three for three. I never keep sailfish or marlin as I don’t want to kill them even-even though some people eat these fish. I had given my rod to another fisherman after his was landed and only took over to avoid a tangle at times. I took back the rod towards the end, and the sailfish was tail wrapped, meaning the line was wrapped around the tail. We were unaware there was also the tentacle of a man-of-war wrapped around the tail, and you can see me in the video taking it off the fish. As we were trying to free the sail, I was grabbing what I thought was line, but it was tentacle. Within seconds, my hand was on fire. Two of us were screaming and realized it as a Man-O’War. We got the sailfish untangled and revived, but it was indeed no easy matter. We got the “Triple” and had a fun story to tell despite some solid stings. Peak sailfish season is now through mid-February with the peak around the Super Bowl. My record was 14 sails in a day in a tournament on a friend’s boat three years ago in 6-8 foot seas. I almost fell overboard, and there is a crazy video of me fighting a sail, but I will save it for another time. You can find the short video link above or by clicking the picture of me and the sailfish below.
Man O’War
Quick Bites
Stocks fell sharply Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its first decline of 2022, as Wall Street geared up for potentially tighter U.S. monetary policy. The Dow Jones ended the day down 393 points, or 1.07%, at 36,407. The 30-stock average hit an intraday record earlier in the session. The S&P 500 fell 1.94% to 4,701. The tech-heavy Nasdaq saw its biggest one-day loss since February, losing 3.34% to end at 15,100. The Fed is tapering its bond purchases now and has already indicated to the market that it will raise rates soon after it finishes that taper in March. But the market is awaiting indications from the Fed on what it will do with its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet once it’s done increasing it. The minutes show officials to be considering shrinking the balance sheet along with raising rates as another way to remove policy accommodation. The 10-Year Treasury closed at 1.7%. Remember, it was at 1.34% in December. I have been discussing this for months. I am not surprised at this action other than the timing. Crypto was hit hard with BTC -5.5% and ETH -6.3%. Oil was up slightly to $77 and Nat Gas was +3% to $3.8.
Thirteen years ago, Bitcoin officially launched after what’s known as the Genesis Block was mined. Though the bitcoin whitepaper was released by Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym used by bitcoin’s creator or creators, on October 28, 2008, many say its mint date of January 3, 2009 represents the cryptocurrency’s birthday. Despite another ban from China, increased regulatory scrutiny and wild volatility, bitcoin had a record year in 2021 on many accounts. This past year marked the start of mainstream adoption for bitcoin with several firsts, including all-time highs in its price and hashrate, among other things. I am getting hundreds of inquiries from my readers about crypto. This is a good article which will educate you on some of the things going on with BTC. I am a believer that crypto, smart contracts and decentralized finance are here to stay. Even old folks like me need to learn more, or we will get lapped by all the young folks. Another article is the young $30bn crypto investor, Sam Bankman-Fried, suggesting a “Tidal Wave” of institutions could jump into crytpo in 2022. Here are eight milestones achieved this year and the details can be found in the link:
Bitcoin surpassed $1 trillion in market value for the first time
Morgan Stanley offered wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds
El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender
The first U.S. futures-based bitcoin ETF launched
The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high
The first bitcoin upgrade in four years activated
90% of the total bitcoin supply has been mined
Bitcoin’s hashrate hit an all-time high
Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, the one-time billionaire and darling of Silicon Valley who promised a revolutionary blood-testing technology, has been found guilty of four charges in her criminal fraud trial. The jury of eight men and four women were handed the case in mid-December after three months of proceedings and testimony from 32 witnesses. Deliberations lasted more than 50 hours over seven days. In the end, the jurors convicted Holmes of one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and three counts of wire fraud against specific investors. U.S. District Court Judge Edward Davila will sentence Holmes at a later date. She faces up to 20 years in prison. Holmes was found not guilty on four charges and the jury determined there was no verdict on the other three. Jurors told Davila earlier on Monday that they were deadlocked on three of the 11 charges. I was involved with NY Hospital when I lived in NYC and was the Vice Chairman of the Children’s Health Council. It gave me access to top doctors and researchers, and I really enjoyed it. I met with a researcher who said, “There is no chance Theranos is legit. Zero. I do this for a living and her technology cannot work.” He was emphatic. Unfortunately, it was not a public company or I could have made a killing. The ex-Theranos employee who blew the whistle on fraud at the blood-testing company where his grandfather — former Secretary of State George Shultz — was a board member says he popped a bottle of Champagne when he heard of Elizabeth Holmes’ conviction.
The pressures on global supply chains that disrupted the flow of goods and fueled inflation may have finally peaked, according to the New York Federal Reserve. The Fed on Tuesday debuted a new metric, which combines several of Wall Street’s favorite supply-chain measures into one integrated tool. The new barometer, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, shows global supply chain pressures at dizzying levels but suggests they may have peaked. This would not surprise me. However, I am a firm believer the levels for shipping and importing will not go back to pre-pandemic levels for years. Shipping costs went from $3,000 to $27,000 from China to the Midwest for a 45-foot container. I do not see them going back to sub $5,000 for some time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping oversaw an ambitious joint military exercise in China this summer, which along with reported collaborations in aviation, undersea and hypersonic-weapons technology point to a solidifying defense alignment, according to military analysts. U.S. officials and military specialists say it is difficult to pin down the level of collaboration between two nations that tightly control information, and whose actions are increasingly opaque to outsiders. But Western officials and defense experts are growing more convinced of the closer relationship based on recent economic alliances, military exercises and joint defense development, as well as the few public statements from government leaders. While U.S. officials have long been skeptical of a unified threat from the two countries, some are now changing their tune. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported that Beijing and Moscow are now more aligned than at any point in the past 60 years. My level of distrust of these two countries is at an all-time high, and this development cannot be a positive one for the USA.
Although this likely belongs in the Virus/Vaccine section of the Rosen Report, I was so dumbfounded by the data, I brought it up to a more prominent section of the piece. I bolded the section in the middle to draw attention, but did not write it. The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people. “We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.” OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica. “And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said. “Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” “What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.” He said at the same time, the company is seeing an “uptick” in disability claims, saying at first it was short-term disability claims, and now the increase is in long-term disability claims. I would like to see more data here, but is this telling us lockdowns, missed doctor’s appointments/procedures, depression, more drug deaths… were to blame for these massive numbers? I don’t know, but it is quite frankly concerning and tells me public policy choices have unintended consequences.
President Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating reached a new high in December as more voters signaled their unhappiness with his handling of the economy and the Covid pandemic. Results from a CNBC/Change Research poll show 60% of respondents said they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy as he nears the conclusion of his first year in office. A 55% majority of survey respondents also signaled disapproval of his leadership during the pandemic, an area in which he previously excelled. Some 84% of those surveyed said the prices they see for everyday goods are higher than they were a year ago, while just 19% report earning more income over the same period. And only 23% say they believe inflation is starting to come down or will begin to decline soon.
Respondents tend to blame Biden (38%) for the price increases versus the global pandemic (26%) or corporations (23%). For their part, Democrats say the global pandemic caused the current rash of inflation and that it will calm down once supply chain disruptions are resolved. According to CNN, Biden’s net economic rating is the lowest of any president at this pont since Jimmy Carter in 1977.
I was at lunch with someone who left NYC recently and moved to Palm Beach as a renter. Within one month, his wife said, “Why would we ever go back to NYC?” I have helped or spoken with 100 families who have moved to South Florida in the past two years and struggle to find people who question their decision. Well, the new Manhattan DA is giving more reasons for people to leave NYC. Manhattan’s new DA has ordered his prosecutors to stop seeking prison sentences for hordes of criminals and to downgrade felony charges in cases including armed robberies and drug dealing, according to a set of progressive policies made public Tuesday. In his first memo to staff on Monday, Alvin Bragg said his office “will not seek a carceral sentence” except with homicides and a handful of other cases, including domestic violence felonies, some sex crimes and public corruption. “This rule may be excepted only in extraordinary circumstances based on a holistic analysis of the facts, criminal history, victim’s input (particularly in cases of violence or trauma), and any other information available,” the memo reads. He also does not intend to prosecute for resisting arrest, interfering with an arrest, marijuana possession, turnstile jumping, and trespassing. Criminals now know this and I wonder what happens when a police officer tries to arrest people with this information. I really don’t understand why these rules are good for the law abiding, tax paying citizens of NYC. Mayor Adams, I hope you do amazing things, but I don’t like some of what I am seeing so early in your tenure.
A new restaurant in Clearwater Beach, Florida wants more customers to partake in the crypto craze. Crypto Street Restaurant, located in the Residence Inn by Marriott hotel at 309 Coronado Drive, opened to the public earlier in December. The items on its menu, which are American and Hispanic staples, are tweaked to sound familiar to cryptocurrency enthuasists. "Crypto Cuban" sandwiches, "Nutty Protocol" salad, "DeFi Ceasar Salad," "Shiba Shrimp Cocktail," "Bitcoinana Split," and "To The MOOOONNN" brownie sundae are some of its quirky-sounding options. Its walls have art depicting Bitcoin and Ethereum symbols, a rocket headed to the moon, and quotes by Dogecoin advocate Elon Musk, according to local media outlet Tampa Bay Times.
Other Headlines
Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach $3 trillion market cap
I read an article which suggested that Jobs would be worth $330bn had he not sold any stock when he was kicked out of the company. For perspective, I looked up that in December of 2008, the market cap was $76bn. In 12 years it is up 40x.
Tesla stock closes up 13% after reporting record vehicle deliveries for 2021
DEAD FAST-New Mercedes could be Tesla killer with 47in TV on board and 620 mile range
The combination of look, speed and range make this very interesting. I am sure it is a fortune and it appears it is over $105k. This range is remarkable and 2x my Tesla.
China Evergrande shares reopen higher; developer says contracted sales dropped 38.7% in 2021
Evergrande Is Told to Tear Down 39 Buildings on Man-Made Island
China Is Haunted by Its One-Child Policy as It Tries to Encourage Couples to Conceive
Best of CES 2022: New Tech That’s Practical, Innovative or Just Plain Crazy
Insanely cool things in this link.
California twins born 15 minutes apart, but in different years
Motorists have been stranded on a major interstate in Virginia since last night
Flights carrying illegal immigrants now landing in Pennsylvania
Andrew Cuomo’s criminal sexual assault charges dropped by Albany DA
San Francisco man pistol-whipped during daylight robbery on New Year's Eve
Novak Djokovic: Tennis star's Australia entry delayed over visa row
Long Island teacher reassigned for illegally vaccinating teen
How is she not fired?
Testing Site in LA Says Child Tested Positive for ‘Flurona' Co-Infection
CDC panel recommends Pfizer boosters for 12- to 15-year-olds amid omicron surge
California Deputy DA Who Fought Vaccine Mandate Dies Abruptly After Falling Ill With COVID at Age 46
Virus/Vaccine
Cases exploded with over 1mm on Jan 3nd. There could be a little noise in the data due to the holidays. However, when I take the average of the 3rd and the 4th, the cases are 950k. Remember, the wave in Jan 2021 had a peak day of 300k. Even if Omicron is far less lethal and causes a fraction of the hospitalizations, we are going to be at case levels which dwarf the prior peaks and hospitalizations are climbing fast. I continue to believe that the peak is in weeks, not months.
Cases are averaging 547k/day or an increase of 254% over the last two weeks despite only a 26% increase in testing due to a whopping 23% positivity rate according to Johns Hopkins. For perspective, last January, the peak was 251k for average cases and the positivity rate was 7% a couple weeks ago. Look at the case chart below for the US or by region and it is crystal clear. Hospitalizations went up sharply by 51% and are now up to 105k on average for the past week, but actual hospitalizations are 114k. Last January, the highest peak for average cases was 137k, but the most hospitalized on any given day was 142k. If cases continue to grow at this rate for another week, we will surpass the last hospitalization peak. On a positive note, far less people are being hospitalized as a percent of positives relative to last year. The daily deaths over were -3% and average 1.3k, but the average of the past couple days is concerning. I am hoping it is data noise from the holiday closures. I have spoken with almost 200 infected people in the last ten days and know of only one hospitalization and she was an 83 year old. The last chart suggests less severe outcomes in this wave. However, we need to be mindful of the large number of cases. Even if there are significantly less severe outcomes, if cases are 4 times the last peak, it can still overwhelm hospitals.
Another Covid variant has been found in France, according to scientists. The mutant strain has 46 mutations that are thought to make it both more vaccine-resistant and infectious than the original virus. Some 12 cases have been spotted so far near Marseille, with the first linked to travel to the African country Cameroon.
Just nine percent of American teens are getting enough physical activity during the pandemic, a new study reveals. Researchers from the United States and Canada say that number has fallen significantly from the already paltry 16 percent getting enough exercise prior to COVID-19. Health experts have recommended that kids get about 60 minutes of physical activity per day, especially in the midst of the pandemic, which has increased the number of sedentary habits both children and adults participate in. Not unlike my expanded bullet in Quick Bites, policies have unintended consequences.
I found this CDC study interesting around COVID hospitalizations for children. This is CDC data. They did a study at 6 hospitals to check for children and underlying conditions. For kids 12-17 years old, over 60% of the were obese or severely obese. For kids 5-11 years old, 33.6% were obese or severely obese. Of the hospitalizations 32.5% had zero underlying conditions, 51.3% had one or two underlying conditions and 16.1% had three or more underlying conditions. The full charts can be seen here and are too big for me to include in the piece.
According to the CDC as of December 28th, 245 kids aged 0-4 and 558 kids 5-18 have died of COVID in two years. Yes, this bad and I do not want to trivialize any deaths. But how many had a co-morbidity of obesity, cancer, or other issues? I just do not feel many kids 18 and under who are otherwise healthy are dying. A total of approximately 800 in two years is not a huge number relative to many other causes as outlined below. There are approximately 74mm kids in the US under age 18 for perspective. Although these charts are a few years old, I think they offer a good perspective on leading causes of death among kids. I am not belittling the loss of life, but trying to put the COVID deaths into perspective. Healthy kids tend to do fine with COVID. I am not suggesting kids should take unnecessary risk, but also do not feel they should be boostered constantly and locked up either. Why as a society are we not more upset about over 3,000 kids dying a year of firearms relative to 800 dying in two years from COVID? Far more kids are dying of drug overdose, suicide, car crashes, guns, drowning, congenital abnormalities and heart disease and it gets very little attention. The pandemic deaths are two years and the death charts below are each one year.
Real Estate
The insanity in South Florida continues, and I am not sure what would cause the wealthy to stop leaving for the sunny skies any time soon. At the high end, a plot of land on North Bay Road in Miami has sold three times in a year between $9.6mm and over $20mm. The 25,000 foot water front plot will likely have a new modern house built on it shortly. For perspective, Dan Loeb bought a new house a little over a year ago for $20mm right near where the lot sold for approximately the same price. The lots are approximately the same size. In West Palm Beach, a record was set with the sale of an $8.7mm non-waterfront home. I don’t see a near term collapse, but the rate of growth will slow down sharply as South Florida is becoming unaffordable. On Palm Beach Island, I was just told of a crazy story. There is a small house (teardown) on an 11,000-foot lot. The ask was $4.8mm. They received 26 bids immediately and were telling potential buyers if it is not over $7mm, they won’t consider it. Someone suggested it could go for as much as $10mm. Let’s assume it goes for $8.5mm. Based on the lot size, you can put a 5,500-foot house on it and it will cost you $5mm to build it nicely. You are in a house with no land for $13.5mm, and it will take you almost two years to move in. Yes, Palm Beach Island and South Florida in general is crazy. I personally do not believe the premium to live on Palm Beach Island is worth it today and would not consider it. I spoke with a developer who told me Palm Beach Island builders are quoting $1,200-1,500/ft for high end and Off Island builder who want to get on the Island are quoting $700s. I can concur that building prices are up sharply over the past two years.
This Barron’s article is entitled, “Everyone Is Moving to Florida. What That Means for Financial Advisors and Their Clients.” I have been consistent about this theme. Florida provides a much better quality of life, cost of living, taxes, security and aversion from “over wokeness” than the alternatives of NY, NJ, CT, IL, CA, OR, WA… There is a reason for this chart below. Give people Taco Bell for $500/person and those who can leave will. How much wealth has left the Tri-State in the past 3 years? What has that cost those states in tax revenues? Florida is booming. You can’t buy a house, can’t get into a restaurant, can’t join a club, can’t find a parking spot… When I moved here in 2017, it was offered and now it is bid without. That is trader speak and I know some subset of my readers will appreciate that (Billy).
On December 22, a luxury Bel Air compound with a main house designed by the English architect John Pawson quietly traded hands for a smashing $133 million. The buyer was Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, the country’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The seller was Hideki Tomita, the Japanese founder of Dip Corporation, a job search agency. The sale marked a major score for Tomita, who bought the compound for $85 million in 2018. The sale was first reported by Dirt, and the buyer was first revealed by the Wall Street Journal. The nearly-five-acre property ranks among the choicest even in tony Bel Air, with one 19,000-square-foot main house and a 6,600-square-foot “guest mansion,” along with a tennis court, two pools, motor court and amenities that include a home theater and gym. I keep hearing about how crypto is not really creating wealth. Tell that to the guy who just bought a $133mm home. Last week I wrote about a $40mm Miami home to another crypto billionaire. Yes, the money is real and yes, they are spending it on homes, cars, art, real estate, NFTs and fancy restaurants.
I have spoken about the Austin, TX market at length. I was a guest on a podcast where I went long Austin and the moderator went short. This data and chart suggests I was right.
This WSJ Video is about the Metaverse Real Estate Market. It is 7 minutes long and informative for those “Crypto Idiots” like me. People are buying land and building it out only to charge rent. You seriously cannot make it up. Republic Rhealm, a firm that buys and develops paid $4.3mm for land in the world of Sandbox. The largest digital property sale to date. Ok, if you are willing to pay $4.3mm for digital land, please bid on my REAL house. You can live here, sleep here, eat here, watch TV, sit on the couch, get yelled at by your wife… Hey, maybe I should live in the metaverse! I am just too old to understand the real estate market in the metaverse. You actually hire an architect to develop it. Watch the video and scratch your head. Nothing complicated is discussed.