Passwords #$&!%&*@$$!#*

8-25-21

• Opening Comments

• Picture of the Day-Pictures from Afghanistan

• Passwords #$&!

• Quick Bites

  • Markets, Bitcoin, House Passes $3.5 Trillion

  • Restaurant Wages, COLA, Logistics Issues, Hedge Funds Dictating Terms

  • How to Retire with $1mm at $35k/year

  • 9/11 1st Responders, Fact Check, Broadway is Back

  • Diminished Water Supplies in SW-Crazy Pics, Remarkable CRT Video

  • Dangerous Alabama Love Triangle

  • Young Woman’s Spiked Drink-SCARY

• Virus/Vaccine

  • Data

  • FDA Approves Pfizer

  • NYC Schools/Delta Airlines $200 Employee Surcharge

  • UPenn Paper on Immune Response

  • Unvaccinated 29x More Likely to Be Hospitalized

• Real Estate

  • My general Market Comments

    • South Florida/Examples. Insanity Mounts.

  • 88% Discount on NJ Mansion

  • $79mm PH at Woolworth Building in NYC

  • New Home Price Record in July

Opening Comments

Nothing like being in your own home and bed. Don’t get me wrong, South Florida is horrible August -October from a heat, rain, humidity and hair perspective, but finally I am eating meals I make with good wine while sleeping in my own bed. If you can be in Florida November 1-May 30 or even mid June and then somewhere else for the rest of the summer, it is ideal.

When I returned my Budget Rental Car a few days early, I wanted to go speak with someone behind the counter at LGA Airport. The line at Budget was 44 people deep. I bypassed the line to see what was going on inside. ONE PERSON was behind the counter. I just left the car, as I would have missed my flight. There’s a consistent theme with businesses unable to find help.

Now that I am back in Florida, I need to stock up the house with food. Unlike NYC, getting high quality meat is shockingly difficult. I found Jimmy P’s in Naples which delivers and has VERY high quality Wagyu products. Given most are coming from Australia, they cannot get shipments and are out of stock of 50% of what I am trying to order. I fill up the freezer with amazing Wagyu burgers, hot dogs, and steaks. Big difference here in quality from your local butcher unless it is a crazy NYC place (Lobels) or the equivalent.

The spellcheck on my desktop is back so hopefully there won’t be so many BLATENT typos.

I received lots of positive feedback from the last piece and readers agreeing that the Afghanistan situation is a disaster. It seems to only get worse. I remain in shock that the Taliban was gifted countless billions in weaponry from the US. Cannot make it up. Of the hundreds of responses I received, 99% were critical of the situation in Afghanistan. No one was supportive, but a couple of people suggested there was no way it could have gone smoothly. The more I read from both liberal and conservative media outlets, the worse it gets. Now, the Taliban issued a death sentence for the brother of an Afghan translator who worked with US troops. Who will want to help the US the next time? I spoke with a former senior Department of Defense person. I asked him what he thought. He said, “unmitigated disaster.” He is one to quickly praise or criticize regardless of party.

Pictures of the Day

In one propaganda photo (1st picture), members of the Badri 313 Battalion are seen hoisting a Taliban flag in a similar fashion to the six U.S. Marines who raised the U.S. flag on Mount Suribachi during the Battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Worse yet, the Taliban are wearing gear left by the US given the poor execution of the plan to exit. The next picture is Taliban forces posing in US left gear and weaponry which was accumulated over the years. I don’t care what side of the political spectrum you sit, this is an unmitigated disaster. Nothing like the Taliban riding in a Ford gifted by the US government. Remember, millions of rounds of ammo, helicopters, planes, vehicles, rockets, night vision goggles….. were left behind for the Taliban. I cannot find any media outlets who have been supportive of Biden in this debacle. It is rare that the NYT, CNN and other left media outlets would be critical of Biden, but they have been with respect to the Afghanistan situation. Additionally, the last picture, is one of America's MOST wanted terrorists with a $5 million bounty on his head. He reappeared in Kabul as Taliban leaders gather to map out the future of the war-torn country. Right, left, I don’t care, this was a horribly executed plan.

The Taliban has issued warnings against the US for not finishing evacuations by August 31st. However, House Intelligence Committee Chairman, Adam Schiff, said it was “very unlikely” that the US will complete the evacuations by the Augusts 31st deadline. Then today, Blinken estimated there are approximately 1,000 Americans still wanting to leave the country. This story suggests the Taliban is aggressively seeking sex slaves and will kill women and then have sex with the dead bodies. What the hell is wrong with these people? Good thing the US gave them billions is weapons. The former interior minister of Afghanistan claims that Taliban militants have been killing children and the elderly as they seek to rule the country by terrorizing its people. I have read countless reports that many people attempting to get to the Kabul Airport are being beaten by the Taliban.

Passwords #$&!

Maybe it is my old age or the fact that I have over 100 passwords, but this is officially ridiculous. I left for 3 months and could not remember the password to enter my desktop. I have a sheet with all my passwords, yet the one listed did not get me into my computer. Thirty minutes of cursing, throwing things and yelling and I got in on 10th try. I have a piece of paper with my hundreds of passwords in a certain order. Computer related, email, home related, doctors/hospitals, travel, financial, random. I cannot keep them all straight and am constantly battling phishing scams trying to break into my systems.

Now, I have the most complicated passwords with all kinds of different symbols. I don’t care if you have an IQ of 220, you cannot possibly memorize my passwords. I want to go with a retinal eye scan or something. I can never remember my passwords to get into all my systems, emails, accounts… Serenity now. My eyes are also going in my old age, so if I do not have my reading glasses when looking at my password page, no chance I can read it. Getting old is for the birds.

Elon Musk, you are inventing everything. How about you create a solution to my password problem. If you can send rockets to space, build amazing cars, Neuralink, Hyperloop and others, surely this is something you can create for me over your lunch break.

Quick Bites

• U.S. stocks edged higher Wednesday, helped by banks and reopening stocks as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, and are both heading for their fifth straight day of gains. The S&P crossed the 4,500 mark for the first time earlier in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.34% Wednesday, its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.36%. That lifted4shares of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo 2%. Regional banks like Zions, Regions Financial and Fifth Third also added 2%. Travel and leisure stocks were higher too. Air carriers and cruise lines broadly added about 1%. Casino stocks Penn National Gaming and Caesars Entertainment gained 7.5% and 3%, respectively. MGM Resorts added 2.5%.

• Bitcoin prices continue to climb and hover around $49k after trading off as low as $29k in July. This Bloomberg article outlines the rally. Crypto’s latest swings are a sign that Bitcoin miners are back in business after a recent Chinese crackdown. At the same time, there is continued evidence of more mainstream acceptance. All of this is happening as the delta variant’s surge has muddied the timeline for a normalization of interest rate policy.

• The House narrowly passed a measure approving a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint and locking in a late September vote on a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill, ending a standoff between centrist Democrats and party leaders over their legislative agenda. Tuesday’s passage of the $3.5 trillion budget framework in a 220-212 vote unlocks a process, known as reconciliation, allowing Democrats to pass a broad package of healthcare, education and climate provisions in the Senate without GOP support, so long as all 50 senators in the Democratic caucus back it. The Senate passed the same budget blueprint earlier this month, and lawmakers are already working on drafting detailed legislation. The WSJ article attached goes into details. Part of this will be paid with higher taxes, but it is unclear to me exactly how high the new rates will become. I worry about the inflation ramifications here, but the market is telling us otherwise with the 10 year at 1.34%.

• Wages for hourly limited-service restaurant workers climbed 10% in the second quarter compared with a year ago, according to a new report from industry tracker Black Box Intelligence and Snagajob. Restaurants have turned to raising wages in response to difficulties finding enough willing workers to staff their businesses. Turnover rates are also higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to the report, putting even more pressure on restaurants. What does this do to small businesses? Prices for food? So many restaurants I went to this summer could not hire and were only using 1/2 to 3/4 of the restaurant as they lacked the kitchen and serving staff to handle the customers. A pizzeria in Alabama has offered to “literally hire anyone,” given they are struggling to find willing workers. I guess the bar is pretty low when people are paid to sit home all day.

• The estimated COLA for benefit Social Security recipients for 2022 is estimated at 6.2%, the highest increase in almost four decades, according to the Senior Citizens League. Nevertheless, this kind of raise can’t come sooner for many as the U.S. faces high inflation while the economy manages its recovery from the Covid-19 recession. 2021’s 1.3% COLA increase has trailed the massive year-over-year inflation that’s developed over the past few months. While a 6.2% benefit increase would be monumental, 2022’s COLA may actually end up higher. The index used to calculate inflation for Social Security Benefits, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), is heavily influenced by gasoline prices, which are already up more than 40% this year. This, combined with general rises in the prices of other goods and services considered in CPI-W, may result in even larger Social Security benefit increases in 2022.

• I have written extensively on the topic of shipping/logistics issues globally, both in terms of rising costs and delays. Interesting CNN article with an informative 2 minutes video on the topic. The vast network of ports, container vessels and trucking companies that moves goods around the world is badly tangled, and the cost of shipping is skyrocketing. That's troubling news for retailers and holiday shoppers. More than 18 months into the pandemic, the disruption to global supply chains is getting worse, spurring shortages of consumer products and making it more expensive for companies to ship goods where they're needed. Unresolved snags, and the emergence of new problems including the Delta variant, mean shoppers are likely to face higher prices and fewer choices this holiday season.

• Bloomberg story about how hedge funds are in such demand, a record number are closed to new investors. “The reality is the best performers are dictating terms,” Ivan Iliev, head of alternative funds at Julius Baer, said in an interview. For investors, “the easy way of making money by buying two or three multi-manager platforms is closed,” he said, referring to the the practice of investing with a handful of hedge funds that give clients access to an array of strategies. 

• Interesting CNBC article on how to retire with $1mm and the video outlines what percent of your income you need to save despite making $35k/year and retiring at 65. Shows how much you need to save depending on when you start and highlights the power of compounding.

• With the 20th anniversary of 9/11 weeks away, the number of cancer victims among Ground Zero responders and others who lived, worked or went to school near the World Trade Center has risen to 23,710, including 1,510 people who died, health officials say. Experts are not shocked at the rising toll, saying more cancers would normally be expected in the aging group. But they cite ongoing studies that raise red flags, and warn of a “third wave of disease.”  I have spoken with people who have not been given proper support by our government. How is this possible? Heroes who risked their lives to help NYC in a dire situation from horrible terrorists and the country cannot do right by them? However, we allow hundreds of thousands into our borders and give them free all kinds of support? Do we live in an alternate universe? I find myself saying this quite a bit recently. First, I want to thank all the first responders who risked their lives to help NYC in a time of need. I want to be sure the US government does the right thing by them. Seems like we do more for illegal immigrants than we do for our heroes. Just seems wrong.

  

• How do you get through all the misinformation in the world today? It is nearly impossible. Here is yet another example of massive conflicts. A so-called independent fact-checker website FactCheck.org is exposed to be funded by the same $1.9 billion vaccine lobby group that it is supposed to check. The site is a Facebook partner whose articles are used to censor critical voices on the social media platform. It is headed by the former CDC director, which is again a conflict of interest. A U.S. congressman Thomas Massie has pointed out a fact that a COVID-19 vaccination “fact-checking” project conducted by Facebook-partnered website is actually funded by a group that holds $1.9 billion in Johnson & Johnson stock. The group is headed by the former CDC director.

• This summer, New Yorkers were able to do just about everything they could in 2019: Eat in a packed restaurant, go to a ball game, get a shiatsu massage, sweat at a nightclub, freeze in a movie theater and jet off to Paris when they got sick of the disgusting summer in New York. The final step of reopening — and we always knew it would be — is Broadway.  The beating heart of Times Square — the 41 historic Broadway theaters — roars back to life this month. Bruce Springsteen has helped keep the lights on since late June, but a bona fide new play, “Pass Over,” opens Sunday night. I really enjoy going to see shows and have seen over 50 Broadway shows over the years including multiple viewings of many. Broadway was one of the few things I miss about NYC and now that it is re-opening, it will give me a reason to go back for a long weekend in the fall. I remember taking my niece, 5 years old at the time, to the pre-opening of the Lion King. She is now 29 with her PhD! I just think the actors, sets and productions are so remarkable and impressive.

• Interesting interactive link about diminished water supplies in the Southwest due to a diminished Colorado River and the impact on lakes and water supplies. Today, this river system supplies 40 million people in seven western states and Mexico, and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland on its way into Mexico and the Gulf of California. Las Vegas relies on the river for 90% of its water supply, Tucson for 82% and San Diego for around 66%. Large portions of the water used in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Denver also come from the river, and experts say these booming metropolises would not have been possible without its supply. But a crisis is unfolding, and farmers, scientists, water managers and policy makers across the Southwest are increasingly alarmed.

• I felt this video of a passionate speech about CRT was a remarkable one as presented by a Black man from Colorado. His name is Derrick Wilburn and outlines his slavery heritage. I really enjoyed this speech and felt it was quite powerful resulting in a standing ovation from an all-white crowd.

• This sounds like a story from Florida, but it took place in Alabama. You just can’t make it up. On August 15, 2021 at around 9 p.m., Mobile County Sheriff’s Office responded to a shooting that occurred at home on Skidmore Road in Creola. Two men had been shot and both were being transported to a local hospital to treat their injuries. The victim and homeowner, Frank Reeves, was shot in the chest by Michael Amacker, according to MCSO. Police state that Reeves then shot Amacker multiple times, striking him in the lower leg and elbow. During the investigation, MCSO detectives discovered that the homeowner’s wife, Tracy Reeves, alerted her husband that an intruder was inside their home. It was later discovered that Tracy knew the intruder and had been having a relationship with him for over a year. Tracy was also allowing Amacker to live inside the home, providing him food, and more. Frank Reeves had no knowledge of Amacker staying inside his home, according to MCSO.

Michael Amacker

Frank Reeves

• How is someone with 60 arrests across 5 states allowed to walk the streets? Shockingly, this career criminal was arrested for the 1st time in NYC after a life of crime elsewhere. He tried to blow up a cop car.

• This is a scary story for women across the globe and inserted it today to highlight how careful you must be today with perverts all around. An 18-year-old young woman was celebrating legal drinking age in the UK when a man offered to buy her a drink. She took only a few sips of the spiked drink and was rushed to the hospital by her friends as she was paralyzed. As you can see from the pictures, she looked possessed. Thankfully, she is fine physically after her hospital stay, but scared to leave her house for obvious reasons. As I think of my 14-year-old daughter going to parties in a few years, this scares the crap out of me. I hope they catch the demented person who did this and castrate him. I hope he meets some nice “friends” in jail. The young woman’s mother shared the story and said, “As disturbing as it is, if that saves one girl, just one, then it’s worth sharing.” Please share this with your kids or friends to be sure they understand the evil that lurks out there trying to hurt young kids.

Virus/Vaccine

• Although all the categories (cases, hospitalizations and deaths) continue to grow, all are now slowing relative to prior weeks. In late July, cases were growing at 172% and are now +28%. Remember, as of my last report, growth was +37%. Hospitalizations grew at 35% relative to +57% in late July and +47% last week. Deaths grew at 84% relative to 96% last week. I continue to believe the Delta variant case growth peaks in weeks, not months as some “experts” have suggested. You can see the case chart below dramatically flattening after a scary period of growth.

• The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine has been known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee), for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older. The vaccine also continues to be available under emergency use authorization (EUA), including for individuals 12 through 15 years of age and for the administration of a third dose in certain immuno-compromised individuals. “The FDA’s approval of this vaccine is a milestone as we continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While this and other vaccines have met the FDA’s rigorous, scientific standards for emergency use authorization, as the first FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine, the public can be very confident that this vaccine meets the high standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality the FDA requires of an approved product,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock, M.D.

• All New York City public school teachers and other staffers will have to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, officials said Monday, ramping up pandemic protections as the nation's largest school system prepares for classes to start next month.  The city previously said teachers, like other city employees, would have to get the shots or get tested weekly for the virus. The new policy marks the first no-option vaccination mandate for a broad group of city workers in the nation's most populous city, though Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Friday that coaches and students in football, basketball and other "high-risk" sports would have to get inoculated before play begins. 

• Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian notified employees Wednesday that they will face $200 monthly increases on their health insurance premiums starting Nov. 1 if they aren’t vaccinated against Covid-19, citing steep costs to cover employees who are hospitalized with the virus. Unvaccinated employees will face other restrictions, including indoor masking effective immediately and weekly Covid-19 tests starting Sept. 12, the Atlanta-based airline said in announcing new Covid policies for employees. “The average hospital stay for COVID-19 has cost Delta $50,000 per person,” Bastian said in an employee memo.

• A Preprint paper also out from UPenn which confirms impressive immune response from vaccine and natural immunity and further supports boosters probably not necessary for most. Interestingly, suggests basically no need for people who had Covid previously to get vaccine as it provides no long-term immune benefit (get short term protection). Also seems to apply to boosters in healthy people. This was seen across all variants including delta. Still not sure about lamda but so far no reason to think wouldn’t be the same.

• Unvaccinated people are about 29 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 than those who are fully vaccinated, according to a CDC study released Tuesday. The new study also found that unvaccinated people were nearly five times more likely to be infected with Covid than vaccinated people. The data is in line with comments from federal and state health officials, who have been saying for weeks that millions of unvaccinated Americans have been putting themselves at serious risk.

Real Estate

• Here is an example of what has happened in South Florida. There is such a big premium to finished/newer product rather than older product or a lot to build for yourself. In March of 2019, a house in my community sold for $3.5mm. It was older and needed work. Someone bought it, gutted it and put it on the market for $10mm. I do not know what they spent, but I assume no more than $3mm. Despite rising building costs due to inputs as well as labor, it still makes sense from my perspective to buy land and build the house you like and I believe it is a value creation trade. As long as you have decent taste. Don’t go and put in the crap Trump does in his apartments or it is not salable. Nice, clean modern is what people want.

  • For perspective, I just looked on Zillow and there are only 12 lots for sale in ALL OF BOCA RATON. Pre-pandemic, there were 30+ lots for sale. Builders buying up everything right now. Many of the lots for sale require the builder to build out the new house on it. I asked a builder and you can get nice for $450/Ft. Not insane, but nice. I did some extras on mine and he feels it would cost me $550/Ft+ today given how crazy costs are getting. Pre-pandemic, it would have been approximately $400/Ft for mine. Cost of materials and labor now up basically 40%.

  • I spoke with someone who bought two lots in on Palm Beach Island in 2014 for a total of $4.5mm. The built a nice house on one lot and left the other vacant. All in, they were in for under $10mm and believe they can sell the house and vacant lot for $25mm today.

  • Devin Kay had a client looking in East Boca for $4-5mm and found 5 homes the buyer wanted to see. Within 48 hours, three were under contract before his buyer could even look at them. This happened to me so many times, I stopped trying.

  • I spoke with a broker today about Boca high-end R/E. A home in Royal Palm recently sold for $24.5mm on a small canal, a price unheard of a short time ago. Three brand new homes are coming on the market on canals in the mid $20mms. A new level has been set. When I moved here, I looked at a 10,000 ft house on a canal, brand new at the time. I could have bought it for just under $10mm and it was tricked out. All that it needed was closets and shades (the way many new homes are delivered down here). All prices have moved higher, but the high end homes on the water are seeing insane demand and price appreciation.

  • I spoke with someone who bought in Boca Bridges (10 miles west of the ocean) in West Boca. He owns a 7,000+ ft home. He paid $3.5mm for the new GL home and put another $500k into it. He literally just moved in and believes he can get $6mm for it. This is WEST BOCA.

• The Woolworth Pinnacle Penthouse awaits a buyer with vision and $79 million. The five-floor spire located 727 feet in the sky is at the top of the Woolworth building, which was the tallest building in the world when it was built in 1913. Now, the 9,680-square-foot space with panoramic views is the definition of potential — just steel beams, unfinished interiors painted white and staging furniture to help buyers imagine the layout. This is a horrific location in my mind. I would not want to live here and I think the building is an eye sore, but the PH can be yours for a cool $79mm. Who would buy in this location and spend so much money? If you find the person, give them my #, they can wire me money to my checking account if they like to waste it.

•  In Englewood, New Jersey, the resplendent “Gloria Crest” mansion — once one of the Garden’s State’s most expensive listings at $39 million in 2013 — just closed for a mere $4.6 million, a staggering 88% reduction from its original asking price. It took a rotating cast of brokers and years of price drops — $25 million in 2014, $24 million in 2015, $12 million in 2018 and even $9.99 million in 2019 — to close the deal. I see this house and I think, “carrying costs” and throw up, not to mention the interiors are not my style.

• Scary WSJ article about all the corners cut with the Miami Condo Collapse.

• New home sales ticked higher in July while prices climbed to another record high, according to data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau. Sales of new single-family homes rose 1 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 708,000, rising from 701,000 in June. The median sale price for a single-family home rose to $390,500, and the average price reached $446,000 — each a new record.