Protocol For Accepting "Friends"+Restaurant Review
3-3-24
Opening Comments
My last note, “Size Matters,” resulted in a lot of chatter, emails, calls and texts. It was about desk size fostering communication and the title caught people’s attention. The most opened links were the hysterical SNL video about the new Trump shoes and the recent Trump blunders. In the last piece, I had an interview with Ted Merz but people did not see it. The podcast can be found by clicking on the picture below.
On Wednesday night, there was a 3i Members event in Boca at Farmer’s Table. About 30 people were in attendance and we sat outside on a spectacular evening (welcome to South Florida). I interviewed Brian Gaister (multi-family office CEO of Pennington Partners) and Kevin Lang (property and casualty insurance agent). The discussion was about tax optimization in investing and through insurance products as well as how to find the best property and casualty insurance coverage in today’s challenging market. Brian and Kevin are very knowledgeable, and it led to a great Q&A covering a lot of ground. I met Brian through 3i and we have become close friends. He stayed at my house on Wednesday night. The power of the 3i Members connections is real.
I am so excited for my good friend, Jordan Gumberg, who just won the DP Tour event, the SDC Championship. He has been grinding on mini-tours and working hard to improve his game. He is always so nice to my son, Jack, and has played golf with him countless times. I love when good things happen to good people. CONGRATS.
Pictures of the Day-Macchialina Restaurant Review South Beach
Markets
Buffett Indicator
You Actually Earn Money in Cash
What It Takes to Be in the Top 1% Net Worth by Country
Massive Wealth Transfer Getting Ready to Happen
Amazing Robot
Hot South Florida Examples
RICO Case at an UES Co-Op
US Housing Market Total Value
NYC R/E Family Portfolio for Sale
Freddie Mac Jump in Delinquencies-Chart
Pictures of the Day-Macchialina Restaurant Review South Beach
I went down to Miami on Friday for a meeting and had time before my dinner party at a beautiful home on Sunset Island. Readers know that the author of the Rosen Report does not like to miss meal opportunities, so I snuck into Macchialina at 820 Alton Road and grabbed a quick bite at the bar. I had not been in years and the food was delicious. Sadly, they did not have Gnocco Fritto in stock but my appetizers and entree had me wanting to come back again soon. The room is small and the reservation is challenging but worth it. I highly recommend the rustic Italian cuisine from Chef Michael Pirolo. The pasta never disappoints as they are homemade. The texture and taste of the Cavatelli and the Broccolini were remarkable. The prices were reasonable for the quality of food with appetizers $10-20, pasta $5-29 and entrees $31-46. The place gets packed and I had to leave the bar at 6pm given reservations were filling into the bar.
Protocol For Accepting Friends on Social Media
I need to make an admission; my social media game is not very good. I would say I am decent at LinkedIn and horrible at everything else (Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter…). In one funny situation, I rarely check Facebook. It turns out I had friend requests for 13 years that I did not ever see. I finally accepted them. Could you imagine requesting someone and not hearing back for over a decade? They probably think I am an ass. It was not done intentionally. I have been perplexed at the proper protocol for accepting all these “friend” invites. It is clear that if I know you or we share a decent number of contacts, I am going to accept the invitation.
However, what if I don’t know you and have no contacts in common? What is the proper course of action? Deny, accept, ask for more information, just don’t do anything? As my newsletter expands, I am getting hundreds of “friend” requests per week on LinkedIn/Facebook and I don’t know who these people are for the most part. I asked my son about it as I was being run over with requests from scantily clad young women. Jack said, “Dad, they are bots, most are not real people.” My 18-year-old son sure knows how to crush an old man’s confidence. I thought these requests were due to my stardom, celebrity status, great hair, and white teeth but Jack corrected me and my ego.
How the hell do I know? They look like real people. “Why do they want to be my friend,” I asked Jack. “Dad, they will ask you for money.” Wow, another punch in the face. Because of my interaction with Jack, I am limiting the acceptance of the overwhelming number of requests. If for some reason, I do not accept you, send me an email. My son scared the crap out of me.
At least on LinkedIn, a majority seem legit and show that I have some kind of connection with them. I have turned down countless “friend” requests recently. If they tell me they are a reader and I verify, it is one thing. If I see they are in business or seem to be legit, it is an easy decision. It is all these random people that are confusing.
What do people think the proper protocol should be here? Accept strangers? Reject? Are there general rules of the road? Any advice is helpful and I will post responses.
Quick Bites
On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq added 1.74% (all time high Friday), while the S&P 500, which also popped to a record close on Thursday, advanced 0.95%. Both indexes notched their seventh positive week over the last eight. The 30-stock Dow is the laggard, down 0.11%. Chipmaking giant Nvidia, which has led the tech rally by surging more than 260% over the last 12 months, was up another 4% Friday. Meta also jumped more than 2% for the day. Treasury yields fell with the 2-Year at 4.53% and the 10 year at 4.19% after the University of Michigan sentiment came it at 76.9 below the 79.6 estimate. Oil hit $80 for the first time since November in front of OPECs decision to potentially roll over its production cuts through the 2nd quarter and possibly the end of the year. Oil is +11.3% YTD.
The Buffett Indicator is the total market value of The Wilshire 5000 to US GDP. As you can see in the chart below, it is near the 50+ year highs. Today’s Buffett Indicator is approximately 184% or 50% (1.6 standard deviations) above the historical trend line. Buffett developed this in the midst of the 2001 tech crash, telling Fortune magazine at the time that his formula was “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” Although he has since walked that back in the years since, many pros still put the Buffett Indicator among the best tools for assessing how cheap or expensive the aggregate stock market is.
I am putting together my taxes and had JPM run my interest income data from 2022 and 2023 so I could compare apples to apples. It turns out my interest income went up 6.8 times in 2023 over 2022 as interest rates rose at my JPM account. Those consumers with savings feel much better earning money for a change. Fed funds were effectively zero through February 2022 and are now 5.33%.
This is an interesting CNBC article about what it takes to be in the top 1% club in various countries. The entry barriers to the 1% rich club have been getting tougher across the world. Wealth creation, largely fueled by a “robust performance” of the U.S. economy and a rebound in the equity markets, has pushed the minimum requirements for people to qualify as the richest in their respective countries, according to Knight Frank’s wealth report. The global consultancy notes that Monaco, which has the world’s densest population of millionaires, retains the number one spot for entry into the 1% rich club at $12.9 million, rising 4% from a year ago. Second in line is Luxembourg, which has an entry requirement of $10.8 million, followed by Switzerland at $8.5 million. The U.S. comes in fourth, with $5.8 million, up 15% from a year earlier. The number of wealthy individuals is expected to rise by 28.1% in the five years to 2028, which is much lower compared with the 44% increase seen in the five-year period to 2023, Knight Frank noted. I think this is a great article, but it also touches on the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Since 2020, the 5 billion poorest people lost wealth. What are the long-term ramifications and implications of such a wealth disparity?
In a related note to the bullet above, this CNBC article outlines that a substantial wealth transfer is coming. A gigantic wealth transfer over roughly the next decade will likely make millennials “the richest generation in history,” according to a report from global real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
The annual Wealth Report, which will be released publicly in its detailed format next week, examines the latest trends in property and economics across the globe.
It found that, over the next 20 years, the so-called silent generation — those typically born from 1928 to 1945 — and baby boomers — born between 1946 and 1964 — will “hand over the reins” to those born from 1981 to 1996 when they pass on their property- and equity-rich assets. The shift will see US$90 trillion of assets move between generations in the US alone, making affluent millennials the richest generation in history. I sure hope the people receiving all this wealth will be smart about spending and investing. This link is to a story on Dynasty Trusts used to transfer material wealth for multiple generations.
Given the speed at which AI has taken over the world, it is no surprise that a start up making humanoid robots raised $675mm from Bezos, Nvidia and others include Rosen Report readers. The company is named Figure and the new money valued the entity at $2.6bn. Figure, founded in 2022, is working on a faceless robot that can do tasks in the place of humans. The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company said this month that its robots could complete a real-world task like moving a box onto a conveyor belt. The startup has posted videos of its robots that look like something out of a sci-fi movie. As I understand it, the robot can watch you do a task and then learn from your movements to redo the task. It sounds as though the plan is for companies to use these robots to replace humans. Also, they can work almost 23 hours a day (need charging). Sure beats the average warehouse employee. Now factor in the amount of time/production for a robot vs a human (no time off, no lunch, no healthcare, no raises, no sick days, no overtime, no couch time…) and the effective cost is a tiny fraction of a human. Great for productivity and it is very deflationary. Not so great for unions and workers. Let’s just say I don’t believe the next UAW contracts will be so kind to labor.
Israel
US says Israel has agreed to the framework for a Gaza cease-fire. Hamas must now decide
450 Hamas terrorists killed in last few days, over 13,000 in total
Sadly, estimates were 30,000 Hamas in total when the atrocities started on 10/7.
What We Know About the Man Who Self-Immolated in Front of the Israeli Embassy
The Airforce confirmed that Bushnell was an active-duty member and was a cyber defense operations specialist. How did the Air Force not have any idea about this guy? Sen. Cotton Asks Pentagon Why Airman Who Self-Immolated Was Allowed To Serve
Grenade left in Uber as anti-Israel protesters march through NYC — as NYPD struggled to reach device
Why are school administrators allowing this? The list of schools I am willing to send my Jewish kids to is dwindling in a hurry. Remember, Jews are .2% of the Global Population and account for 22% of the Nobel Prizes.
Other Headlines
The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days
In 1980, after 200+ years as a country, the US had $900mm in debt. In 2000, it was $5.5 trillion. In 2010, it was $12.7 trillion. In 2020, it was $23.2 trillion and today it is $34.4 trillion. Does anyone else see a problem with the growth in the last 15 or so years? The CBO is projecting an additional $20 trillion over the next 10 years. I will take the over based on the CBO’s history and the recent careless spending.
Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago
I thought this chart showing Auto and Card delinquencies was interesting.
China's economy looks like a mess — but some sectors are quietly doing well in its '2-speed economy'
I would be pushing for Sundar Pichai to be fired if I were on the board. Great discussion on this topic on the All In Podcast.
Tech Layoffs Keep Coming. Why Is Head Count Barely Budging?
Dell shares soar 15% after beating earnings expectations, cites rising demand for AI servers
In 1999, every company talked about .com on the earnings call and some changed their names only to see the stock go higher until the bubble burst. Today, you need to change your name to .AI. Going forward, the Rosen Report is now Rosen Report.AI and I am going public at a $50bn valuation.
Salesforce beats on earnings but forecasts single-digit revenue growth for the year
Snowflake says Frank Slootman is retiring as CEO, stock plunges more than 20%
Shares of NYCB fall 25% after bank discloses ‘internal controls’ issue, CEO change
Elon Musk sues OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman over contract breach
The suit is because Musk claims Altman and others "abandoned the founding mission to develop artificial intelligence “for the benefit of humanity.”
Meta accused of ‘massive, illegal’ data processing by European consumer groups
Trump Warns of Big Losses From Asset Sales During Property Slump
Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous, Swing-State Poll Shows
The GREATEST country to ever exist has two leading candidates that are both clowns.
Karine Jean-Pierre Says Biden's Physical Didn't Include Cognitive Test Because He 'Doesn't Need' One
It is just plain insulting. The DOJ questioned Biden’s mental acuity, but the press secretary thinks Biden is a young Einstein. I want you to watch this 21-second video of Biden and Trump at the border. Biden looks like he is an old, frail man who can barely walk. Sorry, he is not in the physical or mental shape to be the President. This is hardly an endorsement of Trump, but anyone can see Biden’s frailty here. Bill Maher gave a blistering monologue on Biden’s age: : “Walks like a toddler with a full diaper.”
Ex-MLB great Steve Garvey leads Adam Schiff in California Senate race
This is for the late Sen. Diane Feinstein’s seat.
Joe Biden got $40K from China funds, brother James admits in bombshell impeachment interview
After years of denials, Hunter Biden FINALLY acknowledged Joe was ‘the big guy’ in $5M China deal
Border Patrol union chief explodes on Biden in fiery press conference
The border policy is awful. It will cost countless billions, and result in the death, rape, and assault of many innocent Americans.
This is a disgusting video of a man defecating in a garbage can in a NYC subway station. It is disgusting. Welcome to NYC.
Naked brawler fends off spiked club attack on LA beach as stunned bystanders film duel
This is how they do it in Vermont with shoplifters. Strong language.
Check out the comments and chart below about store closures in San Fran:
She had 8 prior arrests. NYC is embarrassing. I have dozens of amazing job candidates from NYC dying to get out of there for South Florida and more of them are young citing safety concerns and cost of living. They cannot take the subway and Uber/Lyft prices have gone parabolic.
University Of Florida Fires All DEI Employees: ‘No Place In Our Public Universities’
Ultra-processed food linked to 32 harmful effects to health, review finds
Excessive alcohol drinking drove about 488 deaths per day during the pandemic, CDC says
These 6 power foods can prevent cancer, according to various health experts
Caitlin Clark's last home game at Iowa shaping up as most expensive women's basketball ticket ever
Avg. ticket price was $546.
Beyonce Country Song Knocked Off Number 1 on iTunes by 21 Year Old TikTok Star Benson Boone
They had a dinner for 51,000 in the town. Rhianna performed and this is not even the wedding! My invitation was clearly lost in the mail.
A wildfire scorching the Texas Panhandle has grown to the largest in state history
Over 1,700 square miles or 1.25mm acres have been charred.
Biggest storm of winter to bury part of Sierra Nevada with over 100 inches of snow
Winds up to 143mph and up to 12 ft of snow. Let’s go skiing.
As Sweden joins NATO, it bids farewell to more than two centuries of neutrality
US Defense Secretary issues chilling warning on NATO's looming war with Russia
Real Estate
More hot South Florida Transactions
Brokers closed 100 condo sales totaling $60.8 million from Feb. 18th to Feb. 24th. The previous week, brokers closed 141 condo sales totaling $167 million.
Billionaire hedge funder Larry Robbins buys Palm Beach Gardens mansion. The $13.9mm price was for a 12.4k ft home in Old Palm. Nice community between I-95 and the Turnpike with golf (no tennis).
This house in Royal Palm in Boca just sold for $16.3mm. Sat on the market a while. Same community just sold for $16.85 (better location). Also in Royal Palm, a waterfront home asking $29mm sold at 514 E Alexander Palm Rd.
This is a wild story about a fancy Upper East Side Co-Op and a mob-style board as claimed in a RICO lawsuit. I was on the board of my Co-Op at 791 Park. I have said countless times that I would NEVER live in a Co-Op again given the absurdity of getting in, illiquidity of the apartment, lack of amenities and dumb rules. The board at 1120 Fifth Avenue took ridiculousness to another level. The Manhattan Supreme Court filing aims to use the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) — the law designed for prosecutors to use to go after the mob — to oust the board of ritzy 1120 Fifth Avenue, where apartments have been sold in recent years for $4-$15 million. The suit names 13 current and former members of the board as defendants.
According to Redfin data, the U.S. housing market gained $2.4 trillion in value over the last year. The total value now is $47.5 trillion. That's based on more than 90 million residential properties nationwide. Mortgage rates may drop this year, but buyers still face limited supply. "If you look at national listings across the U.S., we have 40% fewer listings today than we had in 2019. So if you're trying to shop for a home, don't think that you're going to be flush with options," said Ali Wolf, Chief Economist with Zonda.
This is a good story I found from CRE Daily. A New York family deeply rooted in the real estate market for generations is seeking buyers for a coveted portfolio of nine retail and residential properties with an asking price of around $300 million. Owned by the Duell family and marketed by Darcy Stacom of CBRE Group Inc., the portfolio encompasses seven properties in Greenwich Village and two in Midtown. The highlight of the sale is the "crown jewel" at 5 E. 57th St., home to a David Yurman boutique, located just steps from Fifth Avenue's luxury shopping corridor. The decision to offload these properties comes as the Duell family opts to diversify their investment portfolio beyond real estate. With the market showing increased demand for top-tier spaces, the timing seems ripe. real estate and sat on them for a really long time.”
A reader sent me this chart that I thought warranted a look. Freddie Mac Sees Jump in Serious Multifamily Delinquencies.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #661 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
