Rezdora-I Want Mora

11-10-21

Nov 10, 2021

Opening Comments
Video of the Day-Tree Planting Drone
Rezdora-I Want Mora
Quick Bites
- Markets, PPI, CPI/Supply Chain
- Sternlicht on Infrastructure, MA Truck Drivers $310/hr
- Tax Plan National/By Sate, State Street Diversity
- Seattle Teacher Shortage, Rep Gosar on AOC/Biden
- Women’s Soccer Attack on Teammate
Other Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
- Data-Please Read-Cases Increasing and Other Areas of Improvement are Slowing
- CA Hospitalizations increasing in spots
- Singapore Not Paying if Unvaccinated
- Italy Data

Real Estate
Hamptons Update from a Friend

Opening Comments

Given my travel and meetings, today’s note is a bit shorter than usual. I was unable to include bullets in formatting anywhere in my note today. Some bug in the system. Apologies as it does not look as clean as usual as a result of no bullets.

I went to NYC for 30 hours. I love Jetblue and am Mosiac which gives you privileges to improve your experience. Historically, I would fly Palm Beach to LaGuardia and land at Terminal A, Marine Air Terminal. It was remarkable despite flying commercial. Yes, the terminal was decades old, dirty and small, but the ease to get in and out made it worth the trip. I did not realize it, but the new $4bn Terminal B is now open. My plane landed at Terminal B. Yes, it is beautiful, clean and new with shoppes and restaurants, but the walk is about 10x longer than Terminal A. I ordered an Uber when I thought I was at the baggage claim area near where a car service would pick me up. Once you get to Uber/Lyft pick up, it is an easy process, but the distance traveled within the fancy, new Terminal B is frustrating. I also flew out of Terminal B and it really is stunning. Lots of good restaurants and a great Amex lounge, but again, the walk is far from security.

NYC is definitely getting its mojo back. Streets are packed and restaurants are crowded. The pot smoking continues to be rampant. In a 15 block walk on a Monday at 5pm, I smelled no fewer than 8 different groups of people smoking weed, something I have not encountered one time in South Florida. The streets were filthy and garbage was piled up everywhere. Thankfully, Mayor-Elect, Adams is coming to the rescue. Yes, everywhere masks are required and they check your vaccine card if you go to a restaurant.

I had to take a subway (6 line) on Tuesday am to get to a meeting. I was a bit concerned, but never felt uncomfortable from a safety perspective. I was not stabbed, slacked, mugged or accosted, so I have that going for me. In Florida, hardly anyone wears a mask and I am not accustomed to wearing one. I got on the subway and everyone was staring at me and had no idea why and I quickly realized it and threw my mask on to avoid the crisis.

Video of the Day-Tree Planting Drone

An avid Rosen Report reader, Oliver, sent me this remarkable video of a tree planting drone. It was developed by BioCarbon Engineering and can plant 100,000 trees a day. It is amazing technology doing great things for the planet. They are building 10,000 of them to plant 1bn trees a year. The video is nice and short. Please watch.

Rezdora-I Want Mora

27 E20thSt/New York, NY 10003/ (646) 692-9090

I was in NYC in a meeting with a young man on Monday and told him I am always on the lookout for good restaurants. He told me of an amazing Northern Italian restaurant, specifically the Emilia-Romagna region, on 20th Street between Park and Broadway (next to Sugarfish) called Rezdora. It is known for its home-made pasta dishes. I had a dinner date with my mother-in-law and we had planned on Junoon, but it was closed for a private party. I decided to grab a drink at the bar at Rezdora as I considered where to go for dinner. I ordered an appetizer (gnocco fritto) which knocked my socks off (more below) and a small pasta (pork ragu) and I was hooked and ended up eating there for my dinner.

For those Rosen Report readers who know me well, you understand that for me to eat twice in an evening at the same place in NYC it must be incredible. I like to try a variety of restaurants and given I rarely spend time in NYC, I am more apt to try two places in a night, but I was blown away by the food and ambiance.

Chef Stefano Secchi is a culinary genius and has a family history of cooking. He attended the Culinary Institute of America in Hyde Park, NY, and worked at acclaimed restaurants in Italy including Massimo Bottura’s Osteria Francescana. Rezdora means “grandmother” and there is a dish on the menu which sounded amazing called, “grandma walking through the forest in Emilia.” It is cappelletti verdi with roasted leeks, baby leeks and black mushroom puree. I did not try it, but was told it was one of the best dishes on the menu.

I finished up my first dinner solo, met my dinner date and ate another full meal. To be fair, I did not eat breakfast or lunch given my horrible travel day, but I made up for it with two dinners in an hour and a half. For perspective, Rezdora opened a couple years ago and already has Michelin Star and 3-stars from the NY Times. I enjoyed reading this Eater review which was also incredibly positive.

For my second dinner, again, I started with the gnocco fritto which is a strange looking pastry filled with air and topped with various forms of cured meats. It is breathtaking to look at and so spectacular to eat, I had it twice! I never had an appetizer like this one.

The restaurant is known for its fresh pasta and I had two which were both delicious. The 2nd one was nuovo dolcetto schezetto which was a brown pasta with brown butter and sage and not only was the presentation amazing, the flavors were down right incredible. The menu includes a steak, scallop and veal entree, but the pastas got my attention.

We also had the cacio e peppe in emilia salad which was very good.

For sides we tried the warm seasonal greens which were amazing and the cipolinni onions in sweet balsamic vinegar. I could have ordered three of those. The sides were perfectly seasoned. Everything is brought out freshly made to order as well. These were some of the best veggies I have ever tried.

When I tell you that Rezdora is something you must try immediately, I ain’t joking. But good luck getting a table. Of course, there is nothing like Rezdora in the Boca or Palm Beach area as there is a law against good food down here. Boca Raton law requires mediocre food at high prices within 20 miles of my house. Unfortunately, I cannot find a restaurant willing to break the law. I hope to get this law overturned, but in my 4.5 years I have had no luck. My one complaint about Rezdora was the portion of pasta is a bit small, but the overall food, presentation, and experience makes up for it.

The wine list is purely Italian with reasonable prices, but the selections by the glass are limited. I ordered a Barolo and they were out and had to settle for a Valpolicella.

If you go to Rezdora and don’t like the food, unsubscribe from the Rosen Report or go to the doctor as you have the lingering effects of COVID which eliminated your sense of taste and smell. Given my food intake, I left no room for dessert, but truth be told, as much as I love Italian food, I don’t love Italian desserts.

I enjoy cooking and make dinner 29 days a month. I feel I am damn good, but when I eat food like this, I realize, I am no where when it comes to the best chefs. This is what food was meant to be. Chef, if you ever need help in the kitchen, I work for free just to learn from you. I was very impressed as was mom who was raving about it. She knows if I am recommending it, the place is legit. She said, “Eric, ask your friend who recommended Rezdora if he has any other suggestions. I loved it.” Jeremy, what other ideas do you have??

I won’t be moving back to NYC for about 20 reasons, but experiences like the one I had at Rezdora make me want to come back to NYC to visit more frequently to uncover more gems. I guess I am not alone in my adoration for Rezdora. I understand Jimmy Fallon was there on Monday night when I was there and am told he speaks of the restaurant often. The no masks picture in the kitchen can’t be good given the strict NYC rules.

Food/Presentation A+

Portion of Pasta Entree B-

Service-A

Wine List B+

Quick Bites

Stocks retreated Wednesday after October’s consumer price reading showing the biggest annual jump in more than 30 years, triggering a spike in bond yields. The Dow shed 240 points, or about 0.7%, to close at 36,079. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 4,646. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 1.7% to 15,622. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which had trended lower in recent weeks, jumped by about 11 basis points and closed at 1.58%. As Treasury yields surged, investors dumped high-flying technology stocks and bid up bank stocks. They also sought refuge in gold and bitcoin. “The CPI report today contributed to the weakness,” Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab chief investment strategist, said. “And to some degree, the equity market will key off of the bond market, which has been the case for much of this year.” I remain surprised at how low the yield is on bonds. I have been preaching inflation for months and it is higher than anyone imagined, but bonds remain resilient despite today’s sell-off. The stock fintec stock, Upstart, was -18% today despite beating earnings. The stock is up almost 500% since the recent IPO.
Inflation across a broad swath of products that consumers buy every day was even worse than expected in October, hitting its highest point in more than 30 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago, the most since December 1990. That compared with the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% against the 0.6% estimate. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.6% against the estimate of 0.4%. Annual core inflation ran at a 4.6% pace, compared with the 4% expectation and the highest since August 1991. I have been consistently discussing the topic of inflation for almost 9 months. It seems to me it is virtually everywhere. Markets are not overly concerned. The S&P is 1.5% off the all-time intraday high. The rates markets are suggesting higher inflation for a few years and then a normalization. I just fear more of these price increases will stick. Yes, some is transitory, not all in my opinion. Inflation in Atlanta was 7.9% (highest in country last month).
Inflation at the wholesale level rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, matching September’s record annual gain and offering more evidence that inflationary pressures are not yet easing. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — rose 0.6% last month from September, pushed higher by surging gasoline prices. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, wholesale inflation was up 0.4% in October from September and 6.8% from a year ago. More than 60% of the September-October increase in overall producer prices was caused by a 1.2% increase in the price of wholesale goods as opposed to services. A 6.7% jump in wholesale gasoline prices helped drive goods prices up.
- The supply-chain crunch is about to hit another part of American life: Thanksgiving dinner. Supplies of food and household items are 4% to 11% lower than normal as of Oct. 31, according to data from market-research firm IRI. That figure isn’t far from the bare shelves of March 2020, when supplies were down 13%. I continue to cite examples of inflation and supply chain issues. I cannot think of many things I consume which are not materially higher in price than pre-pandemic. Federal Reserve’s Bullard expects two rate hikes next year.
On a call where Barry Sternlicht and executives at his Starwood Property Trust touted the strength of their portfolio and the global real estate market, Sternlicht took a minute to sound off on the government’s $1 trillion infrastructure bill. Sternlicht, chairman and CEO of the real estate investment trust, citing construction costs increasing 2 percent monthly, said the Biden administration–backed bill will push costs up even further for materials such as steel, concrete and piping. “Add that to the fact that the country seems to have lost a million construction workers and there’s mass labor shortages in construction, and now you’re going to try to fix bridges, roads and tunnels all over the country? Good luck finding people to do it,” Sternlicht said. I wrote about my concerns in the last Rosen Report. A tight labor market is getting tighter. NO INFLATION TO SEE HERE.
Massachusetts towns are offering snowplow drivers up to $310 an hour as officials worry that the national driver shortage could cause school delays and road closures this winter. "Considering that you have to bring your truck and have to stay up all night and have to be prepared, and the truck has to be running, I think it's pretty reasonable," Chelmsford resident Mike Ruby told NBC Boston. In a related story from the WSJ entitled, “Help Really Wanted: No Degree, Work Experience or Background Checks,” it shows how desperate employers are to find talent. Given all the shortages of different jobs with crazy pay, I can’t decide what I should do, but now it looks like I will be plowing snow in Massachusetts this winter.

I prefer the US to be as competitive as possible and this chart is concerning about the tax proposal. Yes, it primarily impacts the wealthy, but I don’t like to see the US lose competitiveness. Remember, with state taxes in CA, NY, CT, NJ, IL… the taxes are even higher. This article goes into details about the proposed cut off income levels. I am a little confused by the chart and how they get to 57.4%. If the federal rate goes to 39.6% and there is a 5% surtax over $10mm and another 3% over $25mm as well as the potential of a 3.8% net investment income tax, I get a total of 51.4% which is the number in the 2nd chart for states with no state income tax. I do not know if the tax foundation chart below is taking an average of states to get to the 57.4% top marginal rate. When you add the state taxes in high tax states, it gets ugly for the uber earners. Just what we need in Florida, more wealthy people coming down from high tax states and driving up home prices. At some point, I am just going to have to sell my house and live out of a car.

Leaders at one of the largest investment firms in the world, State Street Global Advisors, will need to ask permission to hire White men as it rolls out a diversity hiring initiative. "This is now front and central for State Street — it’s on every senior executive’s scorecard," said Jess McNicholas, the bank’s head of inclusion, diversity and corporate citizenship in London, according to the Sunday Times. "All of our leaders have to demonstrate at their annual appraisals what they have done to improve female representation and the number of colleagues from ethnic-minority backgrounds." The company aims to triple the number of Black, Asian and other minority staff in senior positions by 2023, the Sunday Times reported. If executives don’t meet the target, they will face lowered bonuses. I appreciate the intentions of firms trying to improve diversity. However, I have always believed in whoever is the best person for the job regardless of race, sexual orientation or religious should get the job. The way this article reads, it suggests you better think twice about interviewing for a job at State Street if you are a White male.
Seattle Public Schools says that classes are canceled for this Friday due to a shortage of teachers. In a letter sent to parents, SPS said there will be no in-person or remote instruction on November 11 or 12 as part of its effort to "ensure the highest quality environment for student learning." Both of my flights were delayed this week and when I asked about it, I was told a staff shortage of crew and maintenance were to blame.
I called out when Rutgers Professor, Brittany Cooper made disparaging comments about White people as hate and have been disappointed that the school did nothing until recently showing their unwavering support of the teacher. I also do not condone Representative Gosar (Republican) and his antics around AOC and Biden with threatening videos. I understand disagreements and not being on the same page, but believe all this violent commentary by each side to be offensive and all who do it should have consequences. I also called out Maxine Waters when she had threatening comments about Trump and other cabinet members. Sorry, it is just wrong. It cannot be wrong for one party and right for another.

This story reminded me of Tonya Harding. Paris Saint-Germain midfielder Aminata Diallo was arrested for her connection to an attack on teammate Kheira Hamraoui, L’Equipe reported Wednesday morning. After a team outing in Paris on Nov. 4, which both Diallo and Hamraoui attended, two masked men pulled Hamraoui out of her car and attacked her legs with an iron bar. The 21-year-old was taken to a hospital and required stitches for leg injuries, ESPN reported. She reportedly also sustained hand injuries. Diallo, 26, according to L’Equipe, allegedly orchestrated the attack in order to get more playing time. Both players are defensive midfielders and competing for a spot on the PSG team and French national side.

Other Headlines

Virus/Vaccine

Cases actually ticked up slightly, but hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline. For the two-week period, cases were +6%, while hospitalizations were - -12% and deaths were down 11%. Not only are cases up slightly, the rate at which hospitalizations and deaths are declining is slowing. The Midwest is starting to go in the wrong direction for cases with (MN+35%, WI+25%, MI+29%, IA+25%, OH+15%, IN+10%, IL+24%) and the Northeast (NH+63%, RI+46%, VT+55%) sharply. However, not all cold weather states are going in the wrong direction. AK-23%, ID-40%, MT-26%, WY-20% are down sharply. With Thanksgiving and the winter holidays coming, more large indoor gatherings could mean another spike. Based on my flights this week, I can tell you the airports were crowded and there were very few empty seats on the planes.

In line with the commentary above, parts of CA are seeing increasing hospitalizations. COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen significantly in the Inland Empire and Central Valley, bringing new concerns about whether the shift represents a precursor to a wider spike in COVID-19 in California as the winter holidays approach. Across the state, both cases and hospitalizations hit a plateau after months of decline. Hospitalizations have remained fairly flat in some areas with relatively high vaccination rates, including the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. But in some areas with lower vaccination rates, such as Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno counties, conditions are deteriorating, with hospitalizations up by more than 20% in recent weeks.
Singapore's government has been covering the medical bills of COVID-19 patients throughout the pandemic. But it says unvaccinated people will soon be on their own. Those who are "unvaccinated by choice" will have to start paying for their own COVID-19 treatment starting Dec. 8, the Ministry of Health announced on Monday, citing the strain they are putting on the nation's health care system. I read that approximately 85% of Singapore is fully vaccinated for perspective.
The Higher Institute of Health in Italy made headlines around the reclassification of some COVID-19 deaths. Initially, it seemed to be a bit aggressive, but as I understand it, the suggestion is the majority of the deaths had at least one comorbidity. Only 3,783 deaths out of the reported 132,161 in Italy were attributed solely to COVID-19, according to a Higher Institute of Health report. The virus was listed as the cause of death in cases where it was reportedly only “suspected” or if it “could not be ruled out.” Respiratory infections could have been contributing factors, the report said, but weren’t the actual cause of the deaths on their own.

Real Estate

A good friend of mine has bought and sold quite a few homes in the Hamptons and shared his perspective on the market out there with me today. Some crazy prices on properties in the Hamptons. Many of these were struggling to sell pre-pandemic. Below is from my friend.

The little area (that I define as Mecox Road to Ocean Road) is becoming teardown city with Sagaponack pricing. There have been six tear-downs on Summerfield since 2013 and three just starting. Most of them are custom builds so hard to figure out post-build market value, but if you look at the most recent trades, land is 5M/acre range, vs $2.5-3 even five years ago. The little house near me on 46 Summerfield sold twice….$3.4M in early 2020 then $4.6MM in late 2020 (only thing done was tear-down and plans). Now a huge custom traditional house being built by a soon-to-be empty nester.

Mecox Road is really interesting….808 Mecox (1.4 acres directly across from the farm stand, sold for $4.5MM in late 2020. The new build of 7,000 SF is asking $17.5. I’m guessing the build cost $4.5mm (contractor said the windows alone were 700K). On the other side of the street at 677 Mecox, 1.5 acres sold for $6.6M and they are marketing a new build with tennis at $27.5MM and are yet to break ground. The house has gorgeous unobstructed views to Mecox Bay. The price seems absolutely crazy given that the two 1.4 acre Farrell houses on Mecox sold in the $10-11m range. Then again, Farrelll just sold 851 Halsey (on corner of Mecox) north of the $14M ask. .92 acre, busy corner and disadvantageous double setback.

Another huge house on Horsemill lane sold for $28MM which was owned by the former CEO of Abercrombie and Fitch. Original ask was $40m, but that is a large house and property.

With the excerption of the house next door to me, everything is now modern, and becoming more Miami/Malibu looking. IMO that’s fine for oceanfront but I think it will make some of these houses look dated in 10 years. Another one to see is 1240 Ocean Road, 1.4 acres right by Ocean Road beach where you turn for BH Tennis club. Original house a Norman Jaffe design (prominent 80’s architect), now being marketed as a $37MM tear-down that looks right at home in Boca or Miami.

Rezdora-I Want Mora

11-10-21

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