Solid New Restaurant-Kasumi
11-20-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about my son’s broken arm in a go-kart accident 12 years ago. The most opened links were Dimon’s support of the “Buffett Rule” on taxing the wealthy and the five stupidest things Americans overspend on. The $100mm Big Sur, CA listing got quite a few opens as well.
My daughter Julia is 17 years old and is great at making connections. She had volunteered at a Senior Living Center for the last year. Her nearly 90-year-old friend, Leonard, made for a great weekly connection. Julia brought him lunch and sat and spoke with him for hours. She helped Leonard do things on his phone and always looked forward to their time together. Sadly, Leonard passed away this week and Julia is very upset at the loss of her friend.
I am in NYC for a few days for the 3i Summit. It will be a well-attended event with amazing speakers and a big focus on networking.
I have an amazing editor for my newsletter, but sadly she is no longer able to do it on the weekends and I am considering my options. If you know of potential candidates, let me know at rosenreport@gmail.com. Subject: Editor
I wrote a piece about the death of mainstream media and a reader sent me this picture as an example of just how bad they have become. On a related note, check out this headline, “Is this (finally) the end for X? Delicate Musk-Trump relationship and growing rivals spell trouble for platform.” I do not see X ending anytime soon but Bluesky hit 20mm users and has tripled in three months.
Markets
2001 Amazon Near Death Experience
Department of Government Efficiency vs Government Waste
The Power of AI Only Getting Better
Crashing Fertility Rates in Europe
Best Place to Live to Make $1mm (Great Chart)
Bill Ackman Selling 2 Units at the Beresford in NYC for a Loss
LA Office Tower -69% in 10 years
Video of the Day-1st Bitcoin Pizza Purchase in 2010
The man offered 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas in 2010. Another man from an online forum took the deal. The Bitcoin owner sent the 10,000 coins and the other man bought pizza with his credit card and took the Bitcoin as payment. At the time, the Bitcoins were worth $41 and today, it would be worth over $940mm! There is a short video that outlines the story. For perspective, in 2010, Bitcoin traded between about 3 cents and 40 cents and is $94,000 today.
Solid New Restaurant-Kasumi
Anyone who reads the Rosen Report knows about my love affair with food. Eating amazing meals brings me a great deal of joy and I travel to eat at great restaurants. After living in NYC for almost 25 years, it is hard to have any other city in the U.S. live up to that high standard. In NYC, you can find hundreds of amazing eateries for any cuisine.
When I moved to Boca Raton, Florida in 2017, I experience a bit of culture shock when I realized I moved to a culinary wasteland. In the past 7 years, South Florida has seen billions of dollars of wealth relocate from NY, NJ, CT, IL, CA and many other states. With the huge influx of wealth came an improved restaurant game. Miami now has 14 Michelin Star restaurants and 17 Bib Gourmand designations. Just a few years ago, there were ZERO Michelin Stars in Florida.
Boca Raton is about 45 miles north of Miami and has been incredibly disappointing from a restaurant experience perspective. Recently, a bunch of new places have opened up, significantly improving the choices in the area. No, we are not in NYC, but there are finally some decent restaurants in and around Boca. There is nothing NYC good, but we are finally able to go out to dinner without being livid. In Boca, the bar is low, but higher than it was when I moved here 7 years ago.
A new Japanese restaurant just opened called Kasumi in the Waterstone Hotel. James beard-winning chef Takashi Yagihashi and restauranteur, Jonathan Fox, opened their new eatery in the Waterstone Hotel just minutes from my house. I went in with low expectations, given my history of disappointment in local establishments. But I knew right away that something was going on, as the parking lot in the Waterstone is pandemonium, which has never happened previously. I went to the restaurant three times over the course of four weeks.
The restaurant exceeded expectations with everything from the food to the service and ambiance. The sea bass was light and delicate. I really enjoyed the spicy tuna handrolls and we ended up ordering four of them. However, I mentioned to the chef that the nori was not flaky and a little chewy. I also appreciated the salmon and golden eye snapper sushi. If anything disappointed it was the toro maki, which I felt underwhelmed for the price.
The best warm dishes we had were the beef short rib fried rice and the kinoko mochi. The kinoko mochi flavor and textures are amazing with root veggies, mushrooms and sesame. The noodle has the texture of gnocchi, but looks like solid ziti. The pork belly was strong as well, but a very small portion. The shrimp tempura maki was solid.
I felt the $12 haricot verts gomae was too small and covered in too much sesame sauce. I would never order it again. $12 for that dish is offensive. I would have been unhappy at $5. However, the crispy Brussels sprouts were solid. In general, the hot dishes were better than the sushi, but the portion control police were in full effect
Is Kasumi NYC good? Nope. For Boca Raton, Florida, it is an exciting addition and one I will return to soon. Prices were not offensive. For three people with tip it was under $300. Kasumi is another new edible restaurant that comes to a town in need of new choices, and for that, I am thankful.
Food-7.7-(For Boca, this is good)
Service-8.7
Ambiance-8 (great outdoor seating on the water on a nice night)
Price-High end of reasonable
Quick Bites
Walmart hiked its outlook, as soppers are spending more outside the grocery aisles. The stock popped 3.5% on the news, despite a weaker, broader market due to geopolitical concerns. Between North Korean troops fighting for Russia, Biden allowing long-range missiles from Ukraine and Putin lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike, Russian-US tensions have escalated. Also, Biden approved Ukraine’s use of land mines on Wednesday. Target missed and cut forecast pushing the stock -21% on Wednesday. Nvidia stock was =2% on Wednesday ahead of earnings after the close. Bitcoin continue to rally and was at $94.4k or +113% YTD and +38% since the election.
When we think of Amazon, we think of arguably the most disruptive company of our generation. However, this CNBC article, “Costco’s founder met Jeff Bezos for coffee—his advice helped turn a near-death Amazon into a $2 trillion business,” suggests Bezos was facing impending doom nearly 25 years ago. Back in 2001, Amazon’s very survival was in doubt after the dot-com bubble burst and Amazon’s stock dipped by 90 percent. Some critics believed Amazon was doomed to never recover, but founder Jeff Bezos turned things around — with some helpful advice from Jim Sinegal, founder of rival retailer Costco. That year, Bezos met Sinegal for coffee at a Starbucks inside a Barnes & Noble near Amazon’s offices in Bellevue, Washington, according to the 2013 book “The Everything Store,” by journalist Brad Stone. Bezos wanted to talk about using Costco as a wholesale supplier for some products, but the meeting’s key takeaway ended up involving pricing strategies. In short, it was the idea of the membership fee. I really enjoyed this article and the picture of “nerdy” Bezos from 2001. Now he is a jacked beast.
As we think about the role of Musk and Vivek in outlining cost savings efforts, I thought I would put things into perspective. The Federal budget is $7.3 trillion for 2025 (1st chart). When you look at the civilian employees by agency or military branch (2nd chart), it gives you additional perspective. There are 2.3 million Americans working for the federal government in civilian jobs, a tally that has steadily climbed as control of the White House has shifted between parties and presidents. Many of the jobs could become targets of the proposed Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has thrown around aggressive ideas about how much can be cut from the budget. I am a deficit hawk and am all for slashing the budget, especially given that government spending, coupled with an aging population and crashing fertility rates, is crowding out discretionary spending. I also believe the Federal government is incredibly inefficient and wasteful, and there is $1 trillion that can be cut, but I do not believe they will get to that number, despite Musk’s goals. I can see $500bn worth of cuts, but believe Congress will push back on many of the ideas in the end. In an old report, I wrote about gross examples of Federal, State and City government waste. I love this new headline, “Pentagon fails 7th audit in a row, unable to fully account for $824B budget.” What would happen to a company that failed audits for 7 years in a row? GO GET EM BOYS! Good luck! Check out Liberal comedian, Jon Stewart facing off against Deputy Defense Secretary about government waste. He CRUSHES her, as he should.
Good WSJ article, “A Powerful AI Breakthrough Is About to Transform the World,” that suggests that the next developments in AI will be even more impactful. Contextual understanding enables transformer-based AI systems to not only recognize patterns, but predict what could plausibly come next—and thus generate their own new information. And that ability can extend to data other than words. “In a sense, the models are discovering the latent structure of the data,” says Alexander Rives, chief scientist of EvolutionaryScale, which he co-founded last year after working on AI for Meta Platforms. EvolutionaryScale is training its AI on the published sequences of every protein the company’s researchers can get their hands on, and all that we know about them. Using that data, and with no assistance from human engineers, his AI is able to determine the relationship between a given sequence of molecular building blocks, and how the protein that it creates functions in the world. Too much to summarize in the article. In short, I am excited and concerned about AI and the impact it could have. I am fearful it will replace so many jobs and render tens of millions of employees obsolete. On a positive note, companies will be so much more efficient. When I give speeches, I often refer to this chart showing improvements in corporate efficiency in generating $1mm of revenue. Just wait until AI kicks in.
The crashing fertility rate in Europe is quite concerning. For the first time since 1960, the number of live births in the EU has fallen below 4 million, one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. In 2022, the number of live births in the European Union reached its lowest level since 1960, according to the latest available data. In 2021, the EU reported a fertility rate of 1.52, the lowest after the East Asia and Pacific region, which had a rate of 1.49, according to World Bank data. The global average fertility rate was 2.27, with North Africa and the Middle East reporting a higher rate of 2.63. North America's rate of 1.64 was just above the OECD average of 1.59. Since 1970, there has been a notable downward trend in fertility rates across almost all regions, although this decline has been significantly slower in Africa. For perspective, today, the USA is at 1.78 births per woman, which is at the high end of Europe (France), but low for the USA, which was at 3.65 in 1958.
Election
The announcement for Treasury Secretary has not been made but it looks as though the two current front runners are Marc Rowan (Apollo) and Scott Bessent (Key Square Capital)
Hacker Is Said to Have Gained Access to File With Damaging Testimony About Gaetz
Trump taps Brendan Carr to chair Federal Communications Commission
The market will applaud anyone but Lena Khan. Brendan has been critical of Meta, Google, Microsoft and Apple for censorship as well.
As Trump vows mass deportation, polls suggest growing support – but not a mandate
I would start with any criminals and deport them immediately. I cannot see 11mm deportations but can see millions in the cards. Americans made a clear vote against open borders in this election. Trump To Declare National Emergency To Conduct Mass Deportations. Tom Homan clarifies it here. LA declared itself and immigration sanctuary ahead of Trump taking office.
What’s taking California so long to count its ballots from Election Day?
'The longer this goes on, whether it's true or not, it sows distrust in the system,' says one state assembly member. All races were not called yet. How is this possible?
Pennsylvania's high court sides with Republicans on misdated mail ballots
Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss
Too many people let biases impact their data. Embarrassing. She was off by 16 points.
Jon Stewart slams ‘Morning Joe’ hosts’ hypocrisy over meeting with Trump: ‘You said he was Hitler’
Israel/Middle East
Hamas Guns Down 20 Palestinians After Over 100 Aid Trucks 'Violently Looted'
Democratic effort to block Biden weapons sale to Israel gains momentum: 'Congress must step up'
Senator Sanders, who introduced the proposal, says America is ‘complicit’ in ‘illegal atrocities’ in Gaza
Lame-duck Biden ramps up sanctions on Israelis — and eases up on terrorists
Chilling new report reveals just how widespread antisemitism is at US colleges, including in NYC
A staggering 72% of Jewish college students in the US feel “unwelcome” on their campuses, while more than half have been victims of antisemitism, a dismal new report shows. The group said two New York City schools — Cornell University and The New School — were slapped with a shameful “F” grade. Given Jews give disproportionately to the broader population, I truly hope schools that allow Jew hate are getting crushed as Jews pull back.
Jews are 2% of the US population. Maybe awful policies around the border, crime, energy, foreign policy, taxes, woke ways and another awful candidate had something to do with it. Take responsibility. Don’t blame Jews. How she is a Congresswoman is beyond me. She is a moron with strong social media skills.
Two very different headlines from reputable news organizations an hour apart
Other Headlines
Bank of America says S&P 500 is statistically expensive by almost every measure
On basic math, today’s price to normalized EPS ratio of 27x implies 1% price returns [per annum] over the next decade.” From the equity strategist.
European Stocks Are Losing to US by Historic Margins
Stanley Druckenmiller piled into regional banks and made this health-care stock his biggest bet
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Says Multistrategy Hedge Fund Boom Is Over
Fun link showing investor, Ron Baron’s take on inflation with examples
Restaurant executives can’t wait for 2025 after slow traffic and wave of bankruptcies
Walmart warns prices to skyrocket under Trump as CFO reveals how to cut costs
Concerns about tariffs.
Super Micro hires new auditor to maintain Nasdaq listing; shares pop 37%
Tesla stock pops after report Trump wants to relax U.S. self-driving rules
Novo Erases 2024 Gain, Wiping Out $210 Billion in Value
Controversial NYC DA Alvin Bragg favored to win re-election: ‘NYers are crazy’
How stupid are New York voters? The only people who should vote for Bragg are rapists, murderers, robbers, shoplifters and gang bangers. On what planet can anyone articulate to me what Bragg has done to improve the city? His awful first-day orders can be read here.
In my opinion, this is largely due to Bragg and the DA’s office unwillingness to do the right thing about criminals. This incident took place in three locations in NYC. The attacker said he did it because they were “alone and distracted.”
Prosecutor in Manhattan DA’s office robbed in her apartment building by perv doing lewd act
Bragg will probably buy the robber a car and give him an apartment. The migrant had links to the Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua.
Tren de Aragua has already set up shop in these 16 states
Let’s hope Trump deports every single one of them.
A $12,000 Surgery to Change Eye Color Is Surging in Popularity
I would love to have ice-blue eyes but there is a Bluto Blutarsky (0.0) chance I would consider this surgery.
Here’s why Americans are obsessed with iced coffee
I have never tried coffee and never will. I feel the amount of money wasted on store-bought coffee and tea is a complete joke. In Q1 2024, guests across the U.S. paid an average of $3.08 for a cup of regular coffee, $5.14 for cold brew, $5.46 for lattes, and $3.74 for tea. This report suggests the coffee market will be $38 billion by 2032 relative to $27bn in 2023.
Michelin Announces 19 More NYC Restaurants Up for Awards
There are approximately 70 Michelin Star restaurants in NYC. Only 5 have 3 stars.
Record 80 million Americans expected to travel for Thanksgiving holiday, industry group says
Scientists discover what caused the Roman Empire to collapse 1,500 years ago
The Romans miscalculated their Persian opponents which caused their downward spiral, leaving them weak and allowing Islam to rise in a manner that essentially wiped out the once-powerful civilization.
Russian Nostradamus issues ominous warning as 'extremely dangerous period is coming'
Russia grinds deeper into Ukraine after 1,000 days of grueling war
I wrongly suggested this war would last 3 weeks. Wow, did I miss that one.
Real Estate
I liked this Bloomberg article, “Want to Meet a Millionaire? Best Chance Is In Bay Area.” However, nothing within reason could get me to live in California or, more specifically, the Bay area. More than one in 200 workers in San Francisco earns at least $1 million a year, the highest share in the country by quite a distance, according to a new analysis of ADP payroll data. The study found that about one in 127 jobs in the US pays more than $500,000 a year. In San Francisco that ratio is less than one in 50 — which is also the biggest share in the US — with Austin and New York following, according to the research by Issi Romem, an economist at the ADP Research Institute, based on anonymized payrolls. Nationwide, the study found that more than 1 million people are paid at least $500,000 a year. The research is based on hundreds of millions of payroll records from the 12 months through July 2024, including other forms of compensation like bonuses, commissions and stock options. If you want the best chance at making big money, you need to consider the Bay area and NYC. However, that means you need to live there, and until those cities make some drastic policy changes, it will be hard for me to consider them seriously. That said, if you are under 30, I strongly suggest you live in NYC or the Bay area to make your mark.
Famed hedge fund manager and billionaire, Bill Ackman has listed two Central Park West apartments for $19.9mm. They were purchased for $22mm seven years ago. The two Beresford units are about 3,000 square feet each and the building is viewed as one of the nicest co-ops in NYC. I am convinced Ackman did work to the units. My point is simple, he spent $22mm, clearly improved the units and carried them for 7 years and they will sell for LESS than he paid. This listing can be seen here on Street Easy and the photos look as though a nice remodel was recently done. For perspective, the building is the Beresford at 211 Central Park West. Because it is a co-op with restrictive rules and NYC is a crime-filled mess run by complete idiots, the value of many high-end buildings has been hit. Some condos have done well, but not South Florida well. In Miami or Palm Beach, if you spent $22mm seven years ago, you would have $50mm or more in real estate today and it could be approaching $100mm, depending where you bought. Policies matter. Leadership matters. Bill, I was critical of you historically, but, given your support of Israel and calling out of woke teachings and policies at the Ivy League schools, you are my new hero. If you want to buy a place in South Florida, reach out to me and I will take care of you. Come on down like all the other hedge fund billionaires. Ackman owns two other apartments in the city (PH on 77th Street and is an investor in a tower on 57th Street).
The value of a downtown Los Angeles tower owned by an affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. was slashed 69%, the latest sign of troubles for offices in US central business districts. The Bank of America Plaza, a 55-floor tower that hosts the home office of asset manager Capital Group, was appraised at $188.9 million, down from $605 million 10 years ago, according to a filing last week for the property’s mortgage. In a related note, Pimco Landlord’s NYC Building Sells for Less Than Value of Its Debt.
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© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ 736 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
Chainsaw Al is a blast from the past. If you don’t think the US governement is bloated and wastes trillions, I don’t know what to tell you. The single most important person on the planet is Musk. He cut 70% of costs from Twitter and did not skip a beat. Google, Meta and others followed suit. The US government wastes so much money. There is a lot to cut. I do not think the compression to Chainsaw Al is fair, but would far rather see the government get hit by Chainsaw Al than continue to run $2 trillion deficits with reckless spending. Fiscal irresponsibility by big goverbement is real. America is on a bad path due to mounting deficits, runaway spending and an aging population. Thanks for the note.