Opening Comments
Picture of the Day
Latest Eye on the Market-Mike Cembalest
Some Like it Hot
Quick Bites
Markets, Robinhood IPO, Apple, Food Costs
Cattle Prices, Restaurant Prices, IMF on Inflation
Amazing Archegos Story/CS, SFO Commuter Wealth Tax
NYPD Officer Arrested for Capitol, Nikola Founder
Tom Barrack, Denver Police Chief on Bail Reform
Facebook Censoring Again, “Pregnant Woman” Term now Offensive
Virus/Vaccine
Data
My Take
UK Curve Collapsing/Delta
Mouthwash Test
Pfizer Effectiveness Wanes in Months (boosters)
Sinovac
LA County
Biden and WMT on Mandatory Vaccines/Masks
Real Estate
My General Comments
Miami Crazy Stories
New Miami Building Sold Out Pre-Construction
New Miami Condo near the Collapsed Building
June Sales of New Homes Fell in US
Opening Comments
I continue to struggle with delivery of the report and get dozens of messages a week that readers no longer receive it. If you receive this intermittently, please check Substack and search for me. My recent reports are archived on the site.
We crossed 6,500 miles driven since May 21st. Jill and Julia are heading back in mid August and Jack and I in late August or early September. Today’s piece has quite a bit of inflation examples in Quick Bites. On the topic, everywhere I go I see signs looking for workers. My country club sent out a note looking for 150 employees and they have closed restaurants as they cannot find people. As kids go back to college, the summer workers will dry up making matters worse. Also, an expanded Virus section given all that is going on lately. Might be back in the Hamptons one last time next week for a few days.
Jack and I were invited to Merion East (top 10 rated course) and I will tell you it is the hardest short course in America. WOW is it impressive. Yes, I shot a big # despite an impressive start.
There have been a ton of upsets in the Olympics: US Women’s Soccer, US Men’s Basketball, Djokovic, Biles pulled out of gymnastics, Barty and Osaka in Women’s Tennis, Ledecky in women’s swimming and many others as seen in this link. I thought this CNBC story on the value of medals was interesting. Olympians typically receive monetary, and sometimes non-monetary, rewards from their countries for winning a place on the podium. For example, a gold winner for Team USA would clinch $37,500 for their efforts while their counterpart in Singapore would receive $737,000 — nearly 20 times more.
Picture of the Day
This is not my typical picture, but enjoyed this Bloomberg story of a woman who befriended J.D. Salinger (pictured above from 1980) and secretly recorded him. She has been offered big money for the tape, but changed her will and decided to have it with her when she is cremated. I love the book, Catcher in the Rye, and the protagonist, Holden Caufield.
Eye on the Market-Mike Cembalest
The latest piece is entitled Red Med Redemption-Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery; big tech reliance on acquisition to fuel growth and others. As always, interesting and informative with good graphics.
Some Like it Hot
“Some Like It Hot,” Was a 1959 romantic comedy with Marilyn Monroe and Jack Lemon. I have some young readers who won’t recognize the title, but this story has nothing to do with the movie. I just thought the title was perfect for my story today.
I started my career at Continental Bank in the early 90s and went through a training class. I made a couple of very close friends from my time at the bank. One of my friends was named, Chris, and he played basketball at the University of Michigan where he won a national championship in 1989. Yes, he is 6’8”+, so slightly taller than I am. In the future, I may write about the low point in my life; standing up at Chris’ wedding with a bunch of basketball players, but that is for another time.
One weekend in the fall of 1992, Chris asked if I wanted to go to Milwaukee to see his folks. We took the train from Chicago to Milwaukee and on the way, Chris let me know his father is a bit strange about ordering his food. Chris wanted to “prepare me” for what was coming at dinner. He did not elaborate, but found the conversation a bit odd.
We pulled into the train station and Bruce and Helga (Chris’ parents) were waiting for us. We were in our early twenties with ravenous appetites and fast metabolisms. I was excited someone was buying me dinner and looking forward to our weekend. We went to a restaurant which was likely the equivalent of a Bennigan’s, but slightly better. By now, I had forgotten Chris’ sermon on his father’s ordering and was focused on my dinner.
We went around the table to order and Bruce went last. He asked about the daily soup special and the waitress said, “It is French Onion, and it is fantastic.”
Bruce replied, “I will take a bowl of the soup, but want it extra hot. When you think it is hot enough, put it back for three minutes on the heat and when you are getting ready to take it off, leave it on for two more minutes.” He then ordered his entrée, but it was not nearly as insane or impressive as the soup order.
Ok, that was strange. How the hell are you going to eat the soup with molten cheese on top? Bruce is going to need a plastic surgeon after eating lava.
Everyone else at the table received appetizers, but Bruce’s was late given the blowtorch needed to heat the soup would take a while. As we were finishing the appetizers, the waitress brought the bowl of soup out and it was steaming. Bruce proceeded to touch it to his lips and put the spoon down. “This is not hot at all, more heat.” He was not obnoxious, but it just sounded strange. The soup was literally bubbling. More heat would just make it evaporate. The frustrated waitress left with the soup as she shrugged her shoulders. Chris kicked me under the table. Now I could see that this was going to get interesting. We all finished our appetizers and the entrees were coming out as the waitress brought Bruce the soup the second time. Unfortunately, it was the same result and he sent it back. I was not mad at the situation, just in shock. Chris and Helga were clearly frustrated, but they had seen this movie before.
I almost did not want to eat for fear of missing what was coming next, but we all started our entrees and Bruce’s soup came out for the third time. The waitress was wearing two oven mitts. This was not for show. The waitress carefully took the soup off the serving plate and put it in front of Bruce. He touched the spoon to the soup and pushed the cheese aside. Shockingly, the spoon did not melt. He touched it to his mouth and finally agreed the soup is now hot enough to eat.
I watched in horror as I was convinced Bruce would have third degree burns, but he devoured the soup in an uncomfortable manner without further incident. I am told there are 7 wonders of the world. However, I disagree. I have seen 1st hand the 8th wonder; Bruce eating soup which might be the equivalent temperature of molten lava which is 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit. I wonder if his mouth was made of asbestos?
Thirty years later, Chris and I remain the closest of friends. Yes, unfortunately for Chris, I still do 360 degree tomahawk dunks over him when we play basketball. Yeah right!
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks fell on Friday amid a slide in Amazon shares, but the S&P 500 notched its sixth straight positive month. The broad equity benchmark fell 0.5% to 4,395, dragged down by the consumer discretionary and energy sectors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.7% to 14,672. The Dow dipped 149 points, or 0.4%, to 34,935. Amazon sank nearly 7.6% after it reported its first quarterly revenue miss in three years and gave weaker guidance. Bezos lost $13.5bn personally on the stock move. Pinterest fell even further, down 18.2%, after saying it lost monthly users during the three months ended June 30. The major averages managed to wrap up a solid month, although volatility has picked up amid concerns about the economic recovery in the face of the spreading delta variant. The Nasdaq and Dow added about 1.2% and 1.3% respectively in July, while the broad S&P 500 gained close to 2.3% over the same period. Utilities, health care, real estate and technology stocks have led the S&P 500 higher for the month, while energy and financials have lagged.
I am not here to be overly negative, but wanted to share some more in depth thoughts which were shared with me by an avid Rosen Report reader who sent me this from market research. Market indexes have made new highs recently, there is significant deterioration under the surface. For example, as of July 28th the 10- day moving average of stocks making 52-week highs is now at its lowest level in more than eight months while at the same time the 10-day moving average of NYSE 52-week lows is at a four month high and close to making a fifteen month high. Another blurb: Advance-decline line now sitting 2682 net advances below its July 2nd high. Breadth divergences can be and often are resolved in due time, but the longer they persist the more concerning they are. My point is, just looking at indices alone does not tell the whole story. Yes, stocks are effectively at highs, but breadth is in question.
Robinhood Markets Inc. wanted to make history with its initial public offering, and now it has -- for the wrong reason. Shares in the broker behind the meme-stock revolution fell 8.4% below the IPO price in the company’s first trading session. That’s the worst debut on record among 51 U.S. firms that raised as much cash as Robinhood or more, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Apple reported a blowout quarter on Tuesday, driven by sales of iPhones, which were up 50% annually to $39.57 billion in sales. That followed the March quarter, where iPhone sales were up 65.5% annually, and Apple’s holiday quarter, where sales were up 17% to $65.60 billion. But Apple now faces an issue that has ensnared everyone from game console makers to automotive companies to Microsoft’s PC business: An industry-wide shortage of chips and other components.
The world's largest food and beverage company is introducing even bigger price hikes as commodity and transportation costs surge. Nestlé, which sells everything from ice cream to coffee and cereal, said on Thursday that it would respond to higher input costs by raising prices in the second half of the year. "Inflation has been virtually absent for a number of years and then pointed up very sharply. It hit us directly," CEO Mark Schneider told reporters on a conference call. Schneider said he believes that inflation is transitory. But the owner of brands including Nescafe, Gerber and Cheerios said it would need to raise prices by roughly 2% to offset cost increases of 4%. Nestlé hiked prices by 1.3% in the first half of 2021. I spoke with a business man who told me the cost to bring a truckload of goods from Mississippi to Indiana went from $1,500 pre-pandemic to $4,200 today and it is hard to even get the trucks at the new high levels. No inflation to see here.
A little-known market, that of young cattle, is signaling that pricey beef could be here to stay awhile. Feeder cattle are animals that have not yet been fattened on corn for slaughter in feedlots. Prices for those on the futures market climbed to the highest since March 2016 in Chicago. Harsh weather and high feed prices have helped the trend, with abnormal cold killing calves earlier this year. Recent droughts and record-high temperatures have also forced cattlemen to send animals to slaughter earlier. The shift could mean that even higher beef prices are on the way for consumers, who have already seen increases on burgers and steaks in the past year after the pandemic threw supply chains into turmoil.
This Bloomberg article outlines how seafood prices have soared which makes it hard to sell in restaurants. For restaurants across the U.S., the re-opening from Covid lockdown has been anything but easy. They’ve struggled to hire back enough waiters and chefs, often being forced to dangle double-digit pay hikes, and have been rocked by cost increases and shortages on all kinds of items -- from condiment packets to takeout packaging and chicken wings. So the jump in seafood prices, part of the broader inflationary surge working its way through the U.S. economy, is only further squeezing restaurateurs just when they were supposed to be raking in cash as they recover from all those months lost to the pandemic. I have a lot of examples of inflationary items today and have been hitting on this topic for almost 5 months. Many small businesses can’t find workers. My last piece had the truck driver compensation examples and restaurants are feeling the pinch. I know Biden claims he was an 18 wheel truck driver (yeah right). Another false claim the media won’t press him on, but comical none the less.
The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that there’s a risk inflation will prove to be more than just transitory, pushing central banks to take pre-emptive action. The issue is currently dividing the investment community, which has been busy contemplating whether a recent surge in consumer prices is here to stay. In the U.S., the consumer price index came in at 5.4% in June — the fastest pace in almost 13 years. In the U.K., the inflation rate reached 2.5% in June — the highest level since August 2018 and above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. I have spoken with dozens of entrepreneurs who are unable to hire people despite increasing wages. Yes, I believe some of the price increases are transitory, not all. I believe wages increases will be sticky. According to CNBC, Federal unemployment programs that have paid jobless benefits since March 2020 are poised to end Sept. 6. It doesn’t appear Congress will extend them again. Roughly 7.5 million people will lose benefits entirely at that time, per one estimate.
For anyone who has interest in learning what really happened at CS during the Archegos debacle, you MUST read this Bloomberg Story entitled, “Archegos Was Too Busy For Margin Calls.” I wrote quite extensively that I thought places like CS, UBS, DB find ways to step in crap at every turn and the best people left those firms over a decade ago. However, this story paints a horrible picture. CS was actually SENDING MONEY to Archegos given the nature of the swaps days before the blow up WHILE CS was asking for more margin. Wait. What? When Archegos was asked for more margin, they were too busy to send the money over. No red flag to see here. The author brilliantly summarizes the report about the debacle. Must read in my opinion.
Online interior-design startup Havenly can’t compete with Silicon Valley heavyweights when it comes to compensation, but it used to have an effective weapon in the battle for tech talent: the Rocky Mountains. The 150-person company counted on Denver’s outdoorsy lifestyle to help lure people from more-expensive places. Since the pandemic spurred leading tech companies to embrace “work from anywhere” policies, that advantage is fading fast. I continue to believe one of the biggest long term impacts of the pandemic will be more flexible work arrangements and WFH. I understand more GS Securities professionals are moving to Palm Beach as well.
The San Francisco County Transportation Authority is once again eyeing a tax on drivers in the busiest parts of the city's downtown, and has launched a study into a so-called "congestion pricing" plan as traffic begins to pick up following 2020's pandemic-induced lull. The authority's Downtown Congestion Pricing Study team is still weighing different options, but all three of the scenarios currently being considered would charge a $6.50 fee to enter the congested pricing zones during weekday rush hours for folks who make $100,000 or more, with discounts for lower-income individuals, drivers with disabilities, and people who live in the areas impacted. The San Francisco Chronicle reported that commuters making less than $46,000 would not pay a fee at all. Taxing wealthy people is a common theme in CA and has lead many wealthy to move to NV, TX, WY and FL. Oh yeah, crime, homelessness and natural disasters not helping either.
Interesting and sad article about a former NYPD officer who was arrested for his part in the Capitol violence on Jan 6th. Thomas Webster was a decorated officer who surprised neighbors with his arrest due to violence at the Capitol. A former officer should know better and have no sympathy for him despite his years of service. Given the picture below, he is now known as “eye gouger” and deserves to serve time in my opinion.
Nikola Corp. founder and former chairman Trevor Milton has been charged by prosecutors with making false statements to investors in the electric-vehicle startup. The charges follow a difficult year for the company, which went public and almost immediately faced questions about its production and technology.Milton, 39, who stepped down from the company last year, is charged with misleading investors from November 2019 until around September 2020, according to a criminal indictment unsealed Thursday by federal prosecutors in New York. He voluntarily surrendered to federal custody and was freed by a judge on $100 million bail after pleading not guilty.
Tom Barrack’s defense attorneys have their work cut out for them, given the breadth and specificity of the evidence in the 45-page federal indictment against him filed last week. Prosecutors allege that Barrack secretly took direction from the government of the United Arab Emirates, and used his status as an informal advisor to the Trump White House on Middle East strategy to push for the policies that Emirati officials told him to. In a case that features a co-defendant who was working for the UAE’s intelligence service, and a sensitive subject like U.S. policy in the Middle East, experts say there are several unusual paths the defense could take.
Denver Police Chief Paul Pazen has had it. He says his officers are arresting a record number of armed felons, but the Denver County Court and Denver District Attorney’s Office are releasing them with low or no bonds. In a desperate attempt to address the issue, he’s forming a partnership with federal agents so the cases will be heard in federal court instead, where prosecutors and judges show less leniency toward violent offenders. I have written on this topic extensively. Violent felons are being released with little or no bond in multiple cities while the police are vilified and quitting at alarming rates. Does anyone else see a problem with this? Above, non-violent felon was released on a $250mm bond. I am fine with Barrack in jail if he is found guilty. I am not fine with letting violent criminals back on the streets under the guise of bail reform.
The Illinois Association of Chiefs of Police wanted more people to know about hero East Peoria Officer Jeffrey Bieber, so it planned to pay Facebook extra for a "boost" in distribution of its post, according to a report. But the social networking giant rejected the police group’s request, citing "sensitive social issues" connected with the ad that could spark controversy, the Journal Star of Peoria reported. Ed Wojcicki, executive director of the police group, told the newspaper he couldn’t believe Facebook would reject a tribute to a police officer."The way we see it is, Facebook thinks it’s wrong to honor a brave police officer who suffered serious wounds while protecting his central Illinois city. How is that remotely political?" Wojcicki asked. I cannot believe Facebook’s decision to not allow a brave police officer injured in the line of duty to be honored. Facebook allows all kinds of hate from Iran, Louis Farrakhan, Omar, and others. I am now offended by Facebook’s decisions and the woke crap that we deal with everyday. Sorry, I believe an overwhelming majority of police officers are good and risk their lives to protect people. It is a tiny fraction of bad officers which should be fired and charged for wrongdoing in my opinion. In the past year, I have seen dozens of teachers and priests accused of sex with students or kids in general. Does this mean we should cancel all teachers and clergy?
During a recent endocrinology course at a top medical school in the University of California system, a professor stopped mid-lecture to apologize for something he’d said at the beginning of class. “I don’t want you to think that I am in any way trying to imply anything, and if you can summon some generosity to forgive me, I would really appreciate it,” the physician says in a recording provided by a student in the class (whom I’ll call Lauren). “Again, I’m very sorry for that. It was certainly not my intention to offend anyone. The worst thing that I can do as a human being is be offensive.” His offense: using the term “pregnant women.” “I said ‘when a woman is pregnant,’ which implies that only women can get pregnant and I most sincerely apologize to all of you.” Is this really the direction we are heading? Teachers apologizing for offending someone because they somehow suggested that only women can get pregnant? Sorry, this is ridiculous. I am now offended that everything offends everyone today. I want to know what percent of the population is offended at what the professor said. If saying “pregnant woman” is offensive, we are screwed as a country. The USA should be renamed, WSA for Woke States of America.
Virus/Vaccine
The charts below show the growth in COVID-19 related cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The US is back up to 78k cases/day on average or +148% in two weeks. We were down to 11k in mid June. Hospitalizations are up to 40k which is +41% in two weeks. The level was 16k in June. For deaths, we are averaging 308/day or +13% over the prior two weeks. Deaths bottomed at 175/day in early July. Cases are up approximately 600% and deaths are up 76%. Yes, there is a lag in death data, but vaccinations are proving effective in significantly lowering the worst outcomes. We are seeing a slight uptick in vaccination rates after a sharp decline in the US. Peak was 3.4mm/day and we fell to 500k/day and are now up to 650k/day.
My take. I remain concerned about the lack of transparency on data and have lost faith in the CDC and the WHO. I want to know cases, breakthrough cases, who is hospitalized (vaccinated or not), who is dying… I believe the data exists and if it were actually more readily available, people would be far less stressed. My belief is for the most part, vaccinated people are not dying or becoming very sick. Yes, there are exceptions. One reader informed me his wife (35 and in shape) got hit hard last week despite being double vaccinated. My view is this is an exception. UK cases are collapsing again. Although I believe we may be living with this for years, I believe the vaccinations have proven effective and those vaccinated are not getting as sick as unvaccinated. The story of CA (24% of new cases are vaccinated) is irrelevant to me. How sick are they getting? Are they dying? Hospitalized? On ventilators? Why not disclose this information? I remain frustrated with the press and the lack of transparency from the government. I found this excerpt from a Yahoo News article: “While it’s as contagious as it is,” a federal health official told Yahoo News, speaking on the condition of anonymity, “and while these breakthrough infections are occurring — and they seem to be occurring more frequently than we once thought — the vaccine appears to be highly effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths, even against the Delta variant." There is much talk about new mask guidelines and potential lockdowns. I just don’t feel we need to over-react. Get vaccinated, use good judgement and unless you have a co-morbidity, you are most likely going to be fine. I am not belittling this virus. It can be serious. However, vaccines are effective and good judgement goes a long way. This NY Post editorial explains it well. America is in for "some pain and suffering in the future" but enough people have now been vaccinated to prevent a repeat of last winter's deadly surge," Fauci said on Sunday. "I don't think we're going to see lockdowns." The one bit of good news is the growth of the Delta variant is driving vaccinations higher. Florida passed 21k cases in a day (new record) and this AP story outlines some interesting data.
After surging for months because of the hyper-contagious Delta variant, COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom are rapidly plummeting, raising the question of whether America’s Delta wave could also peak sooner than expected. “In the United Kingdom … cases are clearly coming down at this point,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told CNBC. “If the U.K. is turning the corner, it’s a pretty good indication that maybe we’re further into this than we think, and maybe we’re two or three weeks away from starting to see our own plateau here in the United States.” I have copied some UK charts to show the decline. Delta hit UK prior to US and you can see the cases collapsing after a sharp increase. In the UK, cases went from approximately 1.6k/day to 44k/day and have fallen back to 24k in a couple weeks. Deaths climbed, but fractionally to cases. It seems the UK curve is collapsing which is promising for the US. I am not belittling Delta, it is very contagious, but the deaths are not spiking along with cases. Vaccinations are proving effective. This is a good thing. Let’s do deeper dives than just the headlines and the CDC can help by disclosing info they have at their fingertips.
In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots. Health officials on Friday released details of that research, which was key in this week’s decision by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the U.S. where the delta variant is fueling infection surges. I am shocked with the results of this study which show Ct scores similar for those vaccinated and unvaccinated. I would like to see a bigger sample size and better understand this data. Everything I have read suggests vaccinated people are less sick than unvaccinated.
Anyone who has undergone a SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swab test knows that they aren’t exactly a pleasant experience. Despite this “brain-tickling” test being quite uncomfortable, scientists still consider it the gold standard of COVID tests. That may soon change, however. New research indicates that a gargle lavage (mouthwash) test is just as accurate as a swab assessment and a much simpler process to boot. Among a group of 80 individuals, 26 tested positive for COVID-19 via swab testing. When that same group used a mouthwash test, the exact same 26 individuals tested positive as well. Importantly, both the nasal and mouthwash tests were of the polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) variety. Researchers say these tests are highly sensitive and capable of producing a result in real-time.
The effectiveness of Pfizer’s COVID-19 shot can drop to 83.7% within four to six months after getting the second dose of its vaccine. This is the latest indication that vaccine-induced immunity to the virus can wane and some kind of boost may be necessary in the future. New research published Wednesday indicates that the Pfizer shot provides 96.2% protection for the first two months, 90.1% effectiveness between the second and fourth months, and between 83.7% of protection for the fourth, fifth, and six months.
Antibodies triggered by Sinovac Biotech's COVID-19 vaccine declined below a key threshold from around six months after a second dose for most recipients, but a third shot had a strong booster effect, a lab study showed. Chinese researchers reported the findings from a study of blood samples from healthy adults aged between 18-59 in a paper published on Sunday, which has not been peer reviewed. Among participants who received two doses, two or four weeks apart, only 16.9% and 35.2% respectively still had neutralizing antibodies above what researchers regard as a detectable threshold level six months after the second shot, the paper said. Those readings were based on data from two cohorts involving more than 50 participants each, while the study gave third doses of the vaccine or placebo to a total of 540 participants.
0.27% of people who were fully vaccinated with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine tested positive for COVID
0.09% of those who were fully vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine tested positive for COVID
0.15% of those who were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine tested positive for COVID
President Joe Biden was well within his legal rights when he announced Thursday that federal workers will be required to be vaccinated against Covid-19 or abide by stringent testing protocols, experts say. But don’t expect the new rules to avoid court battles. Walmart is requiring workers in high risk areas to mask up — and will force all managers to get vaccinated by early October. The mask mandate was announced Friday and immediately implemented. It applies to all store workers, regardless of vaccination status, in high risk COVID-19 counties, as determined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Real Estate
My General Comments-The market in South Florida remains hot, absent older condos in Miami or buildings adjacent to the collapsed tower. Brokers are calling me constantly with more stories of tri-state residents wanting to establish residency in South Florida between Miami and Jupiter. I am hearing more stories of people who I believed would be unable to relocate given jobs (senior roles in the finance industry) who are indeed moving south. One acre vacant waterfront Miami lots being bid at $40mm (story below) tells you all you need to know about wealth relocating to Florida. One South Florida broker told me they sold $70mm in 2019, $100mm in 2020, and $190mm YTD 2020 for perspective. Inventory is down, but houses turn over quickly and average prices are up sharply. In 2019, his average sale was $7.5mm and this year, $13mm+. In 2019 for full year, he had 4 units sell for $10-30mm and YTD 2021 there have been 9 sold between $10-30mm.
Devin Kay, a top South Florida broker, bid $40mm on behalf of a client on a 1 acre empty lot on North Bay Road purchased for $18mm two years ago. The seller did not have interest in the offer and suggested $60mm would be the price he may accept. There was a 4 acre property in Coconut Grove which sold for $65mm, the highest residential sale in the history of Miami.
The Surf Club is building a new tower next to the existing one. The developer sold out the ENTIRE building with no marketing, no outside brokers and the building is not completed for years. The average sale prices are rumored to be $4,000/ft and the PH units are under contract for approximately $65-85mm, I am told. Almost all of the units sold are new buyers, not existing Surf Club owners. There is a new listing in the Faena for $22mm because the owner bought a house in Palm Beach for $50mm+. The Faena seems to have some lawsuits and a new building next door under development will block views. The new building is an Aman hotel. Ken Griffin, Leon Black, Jamie Dinan, Ed Minskoff, Alex Blavatnik all sold or are selling in the Faena.
I thought this article about 87 Park in Miami (next to the collapsed tower) was crazy. Despite it being a new building, since the collapse, the owners have not been able to go back to the condo due to fears it may collapse. Units went for $3-37mm in the building I am told. Who would buy in this building today?
A Malibu, Calif., spec home built with recycled concrete and sustainable timber is hitting the market for $32 million. The roughly 14,400-square-foot modern ranch-style house has all electric appliances and mechanical systems, and comes with an organic vegetable garden, orchard and apiary, according to marketing materials. In addition, the developer said it reduced carbon emissions during construction by using alternative building materials. “This home will have zero [carbon] emissions throughout its lifetime,” said Scott Morris of Crown Pointe Estates, developer of the home. The average U.S. home emits 8.3 metric tons of carbon dioxide a year, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data.
Sales of newly built homes dropped in June to the lowest level since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Monday. Sales of new single family homes fell to an annualized rate of 676,000, 6.6% below May’s rate of 724,000 and 19.4% below the June 2020 level of 839,000. Analysts were expecting new home sales to increase by 3.4% in June. After a year of frenzied buying and price gains in the double digits, newly built homes are now out of reach for much of the demand that remains in the market. The median price of a newly built home in June rose just 6% from June 2020, and while that is a large gain historically, it is nothing compared with the 15%-20% annual gains seen in previous months.