The Cost Of a Luxury Vacation Has Gone Bonkers
11-26-23
Opening Comments
I did not post on Wednesday given the holiday. I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving with family and friends. I went to my sister, Debbie’s house this year and definitely ate too much. The last piece was entitled, “My Wife Caused Biblical Rain in South Florida.” The most opened links were the #1 regret of dying patients and $17/gallon equivalent to charge an EV.
It was my 54th birthday on Saturday and we went to the new Meat Market in Boca. I will write something more complete later, but in short, good vibe, nice ambiance, a younger crowd (did not feel like typical Boca), pretty good food and service, FULLY priced. The Bar area is a bit of a scene and would be a fun place for a drink while watching a ball game. I will go back, but not sure how often. At that price point, Cafe Maxx blows it away, but the vibe is better at Meat Market.
I got some good gifts (new Apple earbuds, gym socks, boat shoes, my own Rosen Report Bobble Head, and a few other fun gifts. We also did our first “Escape Room,” which was a different experience, but sadly, we failed in the final room. It was shockingly complicated.
I wrote of the Brightline disaster where the train was 1.5 hours late with no notice. After 6 days, Brightline responded to my email and offered me a voucher with credit for my next purchase good for 90-days. On Saturday, my friend, Patrick, came down from Palm Beach to Boca on the Brightline to golf with me. They charged him $36 (one way) + $10 for his golf bag. The only problem is an Uber was $30! I dropped my friend off at the train and IT NEVER SHOWED UP. He had to take an UBER after waiting an hour. Brightline has a great concept….when it works, but many trains are delayed or canceled and the customer service is a 1 out of 10.
I love the All-In Podcast and I felt the team did a GREAT job interviewing Dean Phillips (D Congressman from MN). He is a businessman who started Belvedere Vodka with his adoptive father. Dean was adopted when his mom remarried after his dad died in Vietnam when Dean was very young. I am not here to promote Dean Phillips. I am here to help educate you on the possibilities other than the leading elderly candidates who have fatal flaws. Dean is 54, a businessman, articulate, has good ideas, and answered EVERY question asked (rare). Even David Sachs (R) had positive things to say including, “I would take Dean over Nikki Haley all day long if those were the two choices.” Sachs comments are at 1:21. No, I do not think Dean can get the nomination, but Dean educated me about the process. I was impressed by his demeanor, but sadly, the cards are stacked against him and he articulated the process which seems preposterous to me. I definitely do not agree with all of his positions, but his life story, business experience, presentation skills and the fact that he is not elderly had me listen to the entire interview.
Markets
Open AI Drama Resolved
Sniper Kill from Almost 2.5 Miles
Argentina Counts Votes Better Than USA
Real Estate-Expanded Section Today
$28mm Palm Beach Island Sale (NOT ON WATER)
High-End Residential NYC Discount
High-End Golf Communities In South Florida
Shell Bay, Panther National, Old Palm, Admirals Cove
Royal Palm
Interesting Housing Charts
Mortgage Demand Ticks Up
Picture of the Day-Byron Wien’s 20 Life Lessons
Byron Wien was an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley and was vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners. He had a fun spin on market predictions but passed away at the age of 90 last month. I really enjoyed his 20 Life Lessons which can be found here and I would say 18 out of 20 are spot on. My top five are below, but you should read the entire list. Each lesson is a couple of sentences, but I shortened them for this note. The link is a MUST OPEN and quick read, especially for my younger readers early in their careers.
Network intensely
Evolve
Handwritten Notes
The hard way is always the right way. Never take shortcuts.
Mentor
The Cost of Luxury Vacations Has Gone Bonkers
When I lived in NYC, we took a lot of vacations. In the summer, it was the Hamptons and we tried to get out of NYC every long weekend (MLK, President’s Day, Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving), spring break, and winter break. It was Costa Rica, Mexico, Florida, Bahamas, Arizona, California, Puerto Rico, Canada, skiing in Colorado, Utah, and Montana, Wyoming, … When you live in paradise (South Florida), the need to take many vacations disappears. My biggest annual savings from leaving other than taxes and housing costs (I moved 7 years ago), is vacation spending. You want to be out of the heat and humidity fest for the summer, but not so much from November through May, when the weather is spectacular.
Our last real vacation was to Casa de Campo in March of last year after a couple of years of no vacations due to the pandemic. We rented a villa and given the pandemic, there were still restrictions which gave us an incredible value. We were upgraded to a 5-bedroom villa for $1,500/night + fees to take us to $9,500 for five nights or $1,900/night. The price included breakfast served in your villa, cleaning, laundry, and two golf carts to navigate the 7,000-acre facility which is full of amazing amenities and restaurants.
When you look for December 22-27 in 2023 (5 nights, a four-bedroom is $29,620 including the massive taxes and fees ($6,494) which results in almost $6,000/night for Casa de Campo. With flights, food, and activities, you will spend over $40k for 5 nights.
Many require 7 or 14-night stays and given our kids are older, we need two rooms. Most places had rooms of $2,500-4,000/night per room and would result in $30,000-$45,000 in hotel room charges given the massive taxes and fees.
I looked everywhere including Cabo, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, and Barbados, and the prices were just downright offensive. I know there is a lot of wealth in the world, but how many people can afford such expensive vacations? Apparently, a lot more than I thought.
The Sandy Lane in Barbados is notoriously expensive but remarkable. They have been sold out for a while and I would imagine a 5-night stay would have been over $50k if available. They have a 14-night stay minimum even as of January 3rdand the cheapest room beginning on Jan 3 for 14 nights was $54,466 or $3,890/night PER ROOM. This is PAST the prime holiday period which is sold out. For a family of four, it is $8,000/night POST peak holiday. I know some of my readers will be at Sandy Lane over the holidays.
Five nights at the Montage in Cabo for two rooms would cost over $36,000 or $7,200/night for December 22-27th.
Want to go to Turks and Caicos? Check out the prices at Seven Stars Resort and Spa from December 22-27th. The cheapest room is $21,272.5 or $4,254/night. Wait, you want a 2-bedroom suite and it is $57,150 or $11,430/night. The Rosewood at Baha Mar in Nassau, Bahamas was $31,000 for two rooms for 5 nights.
The winners of the most expensive rooms are the Dorado Beach Ritz Carlton which would cost $104,003 or $20,800/night for two rooms between December 22-27th and the Eden Rock. The one room (1 King Bed) at The Eden Rock- St Barts is a measly Euro 48,750 for 5 nights or Euro 9,750/night for one room. How in the hell is this humanly possible? I did find one room for Euro 5,460/night at the Rosewood in St Barth. Two rooms would cost Euro 54,600 for 5 nights.
Yes, getting away is a great thing for the family, and with the kids leaving the house soon, we don’t have a lot of vacations together remaining. However, the costs are downright offensive and I just cannot understand how so many people can afford outrageous-priced vacations.
I had my friend, Jeremy Kenter, (reader of Rosen Report) from Flybizconcierge book everything as he recommended the resort and experience. He suggested Nizuc in Cancun over the holiday. The place looks beautiful and although hardly cheap is not as grotesque as the ones outlined above. If you are there over the holiday, I am sure you can find me sporting my Rosen Report hat and writing a report. I am told the food is amazing. You are going to hear about Nizuc good or bad in a little over a month.
Quick Bites
For the week, the Dow gained 1.27%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.89% in that time. It’s the fourth consecutive positive week for the major averages — the longest for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. The Dow, meanwhile, hasn’t posted a weekly run this long since April. The VIX has collapsed again to YTD lows of 12.46. I thought this chart on market expectations for Fed Funds by Charlie Biello was interesting and it shows a rate of 3.8% in two years’ time. On the week, the 2-Year Treasury was +11bps to 4.96% and the 10-Year was +2bps to 4.48%. _Oil prices declined again to $75/barrel as it appears OPEC will not cut production further. Also contributing has been weaker demand. Check out gas by me (2nd chart). Gas prices in the US average $3.27/gallon, down from $3.55 one month ago and $3.58 one year ago. Bitcoin was about $38k on Friday, and is +127% YTD.
Open AI has been in the news for the debacle surrounding the firing of CEO, Sam Altman. Initially, the board suggested they fired Altman given that “he was not consistently candid in his communication with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. Now, it has become public that staff members wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful AI discovery that could threaten humanity. As I understand it from the article, it is about Project Q* (Star) and its ability to perform certain math problems correctly. In their letter to the board, researchers flagged AI’s prowess and potential danger, the sources said without specifying the exact safety concerns noted in the letter. There has long been discussion among computer scientists about the danger posed by highly intelligent machines, for instance, if they might decide that the destruction of humanity was in their interest.
Open AI just raised money at $80bn valuation. It was announced Wednesday that Altman was brought back to Open AI, avoiding complete catastrophe. Many of the employees threatened to quit over Altman’s firing. Read this CNBC article. The new board includes Larry Summers and former Salesforce co-CEO, Bret Taylor.
I had to read this headline twice as I just struggled to fathom such a thing- “Sniper’s Lord of the Horizon rifle ‘takes out Russian soldier from 2.5 miles.” The shot was from over 40 football fields. For perspective, the shot would be almost from one end of Central Park on 59th Street to the top of Central Park at 110th. A sharpshooter tried to explain to me how this was possible, but I just don’t get it.
Argentina had a Presidential election recently and can you imagine they were able to count votes in one day? Argentina is a corrupt country where crazy things happen including 150% inflation right now and has been a hotbed of payoffs, kickbacks, bribery and fraud. In the USA which is considered the best country in the world by most people, many counties cannot count votes for days or weeks. Why? It is an utter embarrassment that Argentina can count 20mm votes so quickly and we have counties in the US that seem to take ages to get the results. Long delays in vote counting only bring questions regardless of the outcome. Take Maricopa County, Arizona and the constant delays and uncertainty brought by the process. As our President says, “Come on, Man.” Check out this link to recent election fraud examples. This is not a Left or Right thing to me. I just want to have more confidence in the process.
Israel
An Insider’s Guide to the Most Important Story on Earth
This article outlines how the press is covering the story of Israel and how they are biased and inaccurate and is recommended by Brit Hume. I feel it is a good read worthy of your time.
Israel-Hamas war live updates: 24 hostages and 39 Palestinians released in Israel-Hamas truce
I am happy to see innocent civilians go free, but letting go of jailed Palestinians at a ratio of 3 to one has me questioning the ratio. How will such deals deter future hostage taking? Some of the released hostages were presumed dead. 41 hostages held in Gaza have been freed in first 2 days of truce.
Overwhelming Majority Of Palestinians Support Terrorism Against Jews, Hate U.S.: Middle East Poll
This poll does not make me feel great and the #s are concerning. Given it was 688 surveyed, hopefully, the sample size is not reflective of reality.
Escalating Aggression by Yemeni Houthis Seen as Possible Spark for All-Out Mideast War
Key Israeli military base destroyed 'by Hezbollah rocket strike' as escalation fears surge
Hamas captives spill secrets about operating from hospitals: ‘We became their human shields’
How many aid groups knew Hamas was hiding in a hospital and lied about it?
NBC cuts ties with journalist arrested by Israel for glorifying Hamas attacks
Antisemitic 'Nazi' graffiti left on former Chicago mayor's home
Watch out! Antisemitism is soaring in US medicine
Just what Jews need now. You go to the hospital and the doctors are antisemitic.
UTA drops actor Susan Sarandon after comments at pro-Palestinian rally amid Israel-Hamas war
I love it. You can hate and there are actually consequences for your actions. Susan, good luck getting hired in Hollywood which is run by Jews.
John Fetterman Faces Revolt in Pennsylvania
The revolt is not due to the fact that his stroke left him incapacitated or the fact that he dresses like a high school kid in hoodies, shorts and sneakers. A newspaper in the state, Penn Live, published an op-ed Wednesday criticizing the Democratic senator over his support for Israel, calling his position "disturbing."
Other Headlines
Consumers Expect Further Decline in Credit Applications and Rise in Rejection Rates
From the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. Lots of good data. Increasing rejection rates for cards, autos and mortgage refinance applications were cited.
Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year
Washington blinks as debt costs begin to bite
Everything I have been writing about for two years about spending, entitlements, ballooning interest….all in there.
Nvidia’s revenue triples as AI chip boom continues
Revenues crushed it, but the stock fell 1% due to the negative impact of export restrictions affecting sales in China and other countries.
Scott Shleifer steps down as head of private equity at Tiger Global
I don’t blame him, but the reason given was weak (Florida vs NYC). Let’s look at performance. Maybe that played a role? I would love to see what the true value of all of the positions is today relative to the dollars invested and most recent carrying values.
Binance founder Chengpeng Zhao pleads guilty to money laundering charges
X sues Media Matters over report about ads appearing next to Nazi posts
Elon Musk addresses claims of antisemitism: ‘Nothing could be further from the truth’
The polls keep getting worse for Biden
Trump’s vote share in national polls is higher than at any time in the past year.
Letitia James Has Found 'Smoking Gun' Against Donald Trump—Attorney
Trump reviewed financial statements before they were finalized, contradicting previous testimony.
McCarthy makes stunning admission on Biden impeachment inquiry: The facts have led 'even closer'
In a shock for Europe, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders records a massive win in Dutch elections
He wants NO mosques or Islamic schools in the country. Some articles call him the “Dutch Donald Trump,” and I must say the guy has a crazy head of hair. Hard Right LePen from France, “Welcomed the win.” I spoke with people from Brussels who believe the move to the right will continue to happen, as people are frustrated over immigration policies and the cost of living.
Ireland’s prime minister condemns anti-immigrant protesters who rampaged through central Dublin
It seems Europe is turning on immigration and the videos attached show burning cars.
NY ranked ‘Least Free State,’ with high taxes, debt, regulation
The Empire State ranked dead last — 50th — for policies impacting economic, social and personal freedoms in 2022, the report claims. By comparison, Florida ranked 2nd after New Hampshire as the most free state in the union. NYC has so much potential, but idiot politicians keep getting in the way with bad policies on crime, taxes, covid mandates, regulations, low-income housing rules, gas stove bans, immigration, homeless, woke school teachings, overcrowded schools…. This headline, NYC Council to ‘roll over,’ accept Mayor Eric Adams’ budget cuts to NYPD, schools and more, does not give me a lot of hope for NYC. The new ruling in NY State on NYCRR 2.13 is worth a look as to what can be done if the state determines you have a communicable disease. Again, this suggests that the state is not free.
This NY Times article is entitled, “New York’s Era of Overspending Ends With a Shudder,” and outlines all the spending cuts under way.
Hold on. You make opioids legal and deaths increase? Wow, shocking.
Pentagon official from Georgia arrested in undercover human trafficking sting
He is a top education official with the Pentagon!
Eric Adams accused of sexually assaulting woman in 1993 in bombshell legal filing; accuser wants $5M
Accusations are coming out of the woodwork as the deadline for the Adult Survivors Act is upon us. At least 2,600 claims have been filed in state courts under the ASA, including several lawsuits brought this week against such high-profile defendants as Guns N’ Roses frontman Axl Rose, Academy Award winner Cuba Gooding Jr. and celebrity photographer Terry Richardson.
Man caught, ate two conchs in Key West, cops say. The decision landed him behind bars
The man is held on a $21.5k bond, while in NYC, men who beat up multiple cops walk free with no bail despite the DA’s plea for bail. Does anything seem amiss to you?
$300K Bentley which crashed and exploded on Rainbow Bridge may have experienced mechanical problems
Record crowds are expected to take to the air and roads for Thanksgiving
2.9mm travelers are expected to be screened by TSA on Sunday. For perspective, in April 2020, only 87k screenings. For Thanksgiving 2020, there were approximately 1mm.
NFL’s Black Friday game is the latest warning sign for traditional TV
The broadcast on Amazon Prime featured Black Friday deals and a performance by Garth Brooks. Yes, Amazon management is amazing.
Fauci is singing a different song on vaccine mandates
“I believe we should give the choice to people that are not in the high-risk groups, to have the vaccine available for them," said Fauci recently. Remember in 2021, Fauci said, “You can’t get COVID if you get vaccinated.” Lots of lies were told.
Putin says he is ready to end war as fighting with Ukraine is 'tragedy'
This is shocking, but a potentially amazing turn of events. Russia has been crushed in this war, as has Ukraine. One estimate has Russia with over 400k dead and approximately 500k in Ukraine. Obviously many were injured as well. After Putin’s comments, 75 drones attacked Kyiv.
Real Estate
I have suggested that in some markets I am seeing a slowdown with homes staying on the market longer. In short order, I have 5 pocket listings in Royal Palm between ($11-19mm) while public inventory is growing. Homes are on the market longer and more are seeing price cuts. However, Palm Beach’s high-end real estate remains hot. Check out what just sold for approximately $26.5mm on Palm Beach Island (not yet closed). When the price changed from $32.9 to $28mm, it sold in 17 days. The house is NOT on the water and has no water views. Built in 2016, it has 5 bedrooms and 5,869 square feet on a .4 acre lot. I think the house looks ok, but hardly remarkable at that price point. The house sold in 2010 for $3.25mm and was listed for $35mm in May of 2023.
This Curbed article is entitled, “Manhattan’s Trophy Apartments Are Gathering Dust. There just aren’t enough billionaires, and no one wants to live in Hudson Yards.” While the low-interest-rate-fueled buying spree of the past few years burned through most of New York City’s residential inventory, it barely touched Manhattan’s newly built trophy apartments. On Billionaire’s Row, 23 percent of sponsor units remain unsold, according to an analysis by appraisal firm Miller Samuel. And that’s not counting all the people looking to offload the ones they previously bought, which likely brings the total percentage of trophy apartments seeking buyers closer to 50 percent. “Many people thought the super-luxury market was wider and deeper than it actually was,” says Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel. There just aren’t as many billionaires looking for real estate to park $30 or $40 million as developers thought there were. The article gives a ton of examples of units selling at steep discounts. One of the co-op apartments I cited recently is now under contract. The amazing unit at 730 Park is filled with stunning furniture and art. Check out the pics in the link. The apartment sold after over 1.5 years on the market and was originally listed at $17.7mm but likely sold in the $8-9mm range (not yet closed). It has 4 bedrooms/4.5 baths, staff room, huge living room, dining room, library and massive gallery in the heart of the UES.
In an upcoming report, I write details of the various communities where I have taken clients recently to look for housing including Shell Bay, Panther National, Old Palm, Admirals Cove, and Royal Palm which are all in South Florida. I am well versed on the inventory, costs, amenities, and pros and cons of each. If anyone has questions, just email me and we can set up a call (rosenreport@gmail.com). I am helping friends and readers with their R/E needs from Miami to Jupiter, as I am an agent with Douglas Elliman. In short, the amenities at Shell Bay are remarkable, and I was shocked at what Witkoff (developer) did with the property (Condos $3-10mm 2026 completion). Of note, they have a Michelin Star chef from Alain Ducasse (Paris) and Annabel’s (London), for example, and my lunch was fantastic. Panther National has an amazing golf course and practice facility, but it is a bit too far west for me (single-family homes $6-15mm-2024/25 completion). Old Palm is centrally located and has nicely redone facilities, but lacks racket sports (homes $4-20mm). Admiral’s Cove has incredible amenities, 45 holes of golf, amazing marina, but some feel it is a bit big at approximately 900 homes (villas and homes $3-20mm). Royal Palm has a lot to offer in Boca and is a great location (homes $3-30mm+).
This NBC News article outlines five housing charts that explain the slowdown in sales. Existing home sales in October totaled 3.79mm, about 100k less than expected. Below are three of them:
Rosen Report™ #633 ©Copyright 2023 Written By Eric Rosen
Happy Birthday Eric!!