The Last Supper

8-24-25

Opening Comments

My last note was about taking my grandmother to the DMV in 1991 and her failed eye exam that ended her ability to drive. The most opened links were the NY Times article about my Park Avenue Apartment I sold in 2016 to Sandy Weill and Street Easy (for those that don’t have NYT subscription). The other most opened link was from a longevity expert about which exercises to do in your 40s, 50s and 60s to build strength.

I have often written about my Eight Sleep pod and how it has improved the quality of my sleep. I had been travelling for almost three months, and my sleep had deteriorated dramatically without Eight Sleep. I came back last Tuesday night, and the result was an amazing night’s sleep. The ability to control the temperature (my side is set to 67 degrees) makes it a game-changer for me. This summer, I was sleeping less than 7 hours/night. As you can see below, I was closer to 9 hours on my first night in my own bed. My wife bragged about how much better she sleeps using the Eight Sleep Pod and has seen a sharp improvement in her sleep quality since she returned home. If you use the code: ROSEN, you get up to $350 off your purchase. Interestingly, Eight Sleep just raised $100mm from major investors to continue to improve the product and integrate software and AI to track and enhance sleep quality.

I am on the advisory board of Pennington Partners (multifamily office), and they are having an informative discussion on thoughtful tax minimization strategies that offset ordinary income under the new tax bill. I am able to offer the webinar to my readers. I feel Pennington does a great job of being creative on tax solutions and am sure this discussion will be helpful.

Given I did not publish Wednesday, this note is a little longer and I could not get to every story. There is a reason I am so adamant about publishing twice a week!

• Picture of the Day-Cost of Parking In Manhattan

• The Last Supper

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • Yield Curve Steepening

  • AI Bubble?

  • Subprime Auto Delinquency Rates Rising

  • Estate Planning Mistake

  • Sam Altman on AI Job Impact

• Tariffs

• Politics

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Health

• Real Estate

  • Renting More Attractive Than Buying

  • The # of Americans Earning $1mm By State

  • Big Estate for Sale

Picture of the Day-Cost of Parking in Manhattan

I lived in NYC for almost 25 years and was ashamed of the cost of living, which was one of the reasons I “escaped” eight years ago. I was in NYC two weeks ago and used SpotHero to find overnight parking on the Upper East Side at a large discount. I found a lot on 65th just off Park for $31 using the app. Had I not used the app, it would have cost me $54.91+12.67 (SUV charge), +18.375% tax for a total of $80 for 12 hours. Wait, you want to park for the month with an SUV? It will be $950+200 (SUV charge)+200 (in & out charge) +18.375% for a total of $1,598. This does not include the tip or “Holiday Bonus.” By the time you are done, you will spend almost $1,700/month to park your car. I am sick of people telling me that South Florida is more expensive than NYC.

The Last Supper

It is hard for me to believe that my eldest child, Jack, is off to college. It seems like yesterday, he was crawling around and I could hear the pitter patter of his feet when I would put the key into my apartment. “Daddy,” he would say and give me a big hug. He would call me in the office, “Dad, when are you coming home to play with me?” Those days are LONG gone, and he starts college at Wake Forest this week.

Given I am a chef that has cooked his meals his entire life, I asked him what he wanted for his Last Supper before he left for college. He said, “Ribeye Wagyu steak, mashed potatoes, and veggies.” I bought level 8-9 Wagyu from the Australian farm, Margaret River.

We drove from Boca to Winston Salem in a Ford Explorer SUV stuffed with Jack’s dorm essentials. The 775-mile drive was over 11 hours, so we stopped in Savannah, GA for the night to break it up. We were told about a restaurant called Husk, and found it to be solid, although not off the charts.

The drive was long, and my mind was racing as my eldest was leaving the nest. It is all I have thought about for weeks as the transition for Jack and the family is the biggest one you face in my opinion. At times during the drive, I teared up and hid it behind my dark sunglasses.

The campus at Wake Forest is stunning with huge fields and beautiful trees in the school with 5,500 undergraduate students. The grounds are immaculate, and I found the kids incredibly friendly and well mannered.

Jack’s room is 12.5x8 feet or 100 square feet, but we tried to make it feel like home. I actually put together the stand for the fridge and his golf club/shoe rack. The chance of them falling apart is about 100% given my handyman skills.

Lots of tears flowed as I said goodbye to my eldest child. When the kids are small, it never seems as though they will be old enough to leave the house, and then it happens. In total, I drove 1,250 miles on the trip, and we drove back to Charlotte, NC to fly back home Friday morning.

I had not thought much about this day until the summer when the weight of my son leaving the nest started to weigh on me. When I left the house for college, that was it. I never came back for more than a couple weeks at a time. I am excited to watch Jack gain independence and fend for himself, make new friends, and thrive in a new community. However, he will be missed. I am reminded of when I went to school in 1988 and I dropped my mom at the airport. Lots of tears flowed and when I got back to my apartment, I was so scared, but I quickly found my footing.

I think this is hitting me harder than most. I left my career during my peak to be with my family. I did not have a father in my life, as he passed when I was five years old, so I wanted to be there for my kids. I never missed a play, game, or parent/teacher conference. Although my career trajectory changed for the worse, I do not regret all the quality time I had with my family. Julia is a senior in high school, and the empty nest is exactly one year away. I never thought the day would come.

Jack, have a great time and make us proud.

Quick Bites

• Thursday was the fifth straight losing day for the S&P, as some tech was under pressure and WMT dropped 4%+ after the retailer missed on earnings. However, Powell’s speech suggested conditions “may warrant” interest rate cuts and markets soared post the comments on Friday. In a tepid speech at the central bank’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Powell said that “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” The Fed chief added that “the balance of risks appear to be shifting” between the central bank’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices. Full speech can be found here and he did say, “The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts.” After the speech, the Dow was +1.9%, S&P +1.5% and Nasdaq+1.9%. Of note, the Russell 2000 massively outperformed at +3.9% on Friday alone. On the week, the S&P was +.3% and the Nasdaq was-.6%. The likelihood of a 25bps September cut was 91% post the comments. Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year -8bps to 4.26% and the 30-yeaar -5bps to 4.88% after Powell’s remarks. Although I believe a 25bps cut is now the right call, I remain concerned about inflation the 2nd half of the year with the impact of the tariffs and Powell’s comments did nothing to reduce those concerns. Interestingly, Ether notched its first new record in 5 years hitting $4.9k (+15% Friday), while BTC remains at $117k.

  

• The yield curve is steepening, and Apollo’s Torsten Slok discusses it in this short note. The US yield curve has started steepening, not only 2s10s but also 10s30s, see the first chart below. 2s10s was 2bps in December 2024 and now 58bps. There are three reasons why this is happening:

  1. The Fed is cutting rates. 2. If the market thinks the Fed is cutting for political reasons, it puts upward pressure on inflation expectations and ultimately long rates, which also steepens the curve, see the second chart. 3. Growing Treasury issuance is putting upward pressure on long rates.

  

  

  

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has reportedly said that he believes AI could be in a bubble, comparing market conditions to those of the dotcom boom in the 1990s.

  “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes,” he’s quoted as saying. Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai, Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, and Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok have all raised similar warnings. Another article outlines the poor returns of AI investments for most companies. In recent days, tech has lost $1 trillion (prior to Powell’s comments Friday). Reuters has a similar article. On a related note, I thought the chart of where AI sources its data was a bit concerning. Crazy story how AI models are blackmailing to get what they want.

  

• Fewer young adults are achieving economic and family milestones typically associated with adulthood, according to a recent working paper from the U.S. Census Bureau. The paper looked at nationally representative data from 2005 and 2023 to examine changes in young adults' experiences reaching major life events, such as moving out of their parents' house, getting married, and having a child. Researchers found a dramatic shift in the attainment of these milestones in recent decades. The reason for this, according to the paper, is that more young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 are facing economic barriers compared with previous generations. Changing societal attitudes around family formation are also contributing to the sharp decline in the share of young people reaching what the U.S. Census Bureau considers to be "key milestones." According to the working paper, "Changes in Milestones of Adulthood," almost half of all young adults in 1975 had reached four milestones associated with adulthood: moving out of one's parents' home, getting a job, getting married and having a child. Five decades on, that progression has changed dramatically. The share of young adults that have followed the traditional pathway to adulthood has dropped to less than a quarter, according to the paper. I recently wrote a piece about how changing behaviors are impacting the economy, and this article is yet another example.

  

  

  

• The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has surpassed 5% for the first time in HISTORY. They have DOUBLED over the last 4 years. They are way ABOVE the Great Financial Crisis levels. Higher costs for cars, higher rates, longer loan terms create negative equity, inflation, and the end of the student loan payment moratorium all factor into the higher delinquency rates.

  

• Sam Altman says we're worried about the wrong part of the workforce when it comes to AI. Sam Altman said if he were 22 right now, he would feel "like the luckiest kid in all of history." Altman says he's not as worried about entry level white collar jobs as some of his fellow tech CEOs. Instead, he's concerned about how much late-career employees will want to adapt to AI. "I'm more worried about what it means not for the 22-year-old, but for the 62-year-old that doesn't want to go retrain or rescale or whatever the politicians call it that no one actually wants," Altman said recently on Cleo Abram's "Huge Conversations" YouTube show. Kids, learn how to use AI to become more efficient. The old folks will never get up to speed.

Tariffs

• Higher tariffs are kicking in. Here’s what Walmart and other retailers said about their impact

• Trump tariffs: A grocery shopper’s guide

• Trump expands 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product types

• Japan’s July exports clock steepest plunge in over four years, dropping by a more than expected 2.6%

• Trump says furniture tariffs are coming later this year

Politics

Big news was around the meetings in DC in an effort to end the war in Ukraine. Numerous European leaders and Zelensky came to the White House and seem to have made some progress. Now, Putin and Zelensky are meeting in coming weeks to try to iron out a peace deal after 3.5 years of bloodshed and hundreds of thousands of lives lost. Apparently, Trump called Putin to set up the meeting with Zelensky. To Trump’s credit, he put the meeting together within 48 hours of his Putin meeting in Alaska and the feedback from European leaders was positive. Two big considerations are security assurances for Ukraine and which territory will be ceded to Russia. Trump has ruled out boots on the ground in Ukraine but will consider troops in Europe as well as air support. Putin has made it clear Ukraine cannot be in NATO, Ukraine needs to surrender Donbas while keeping Western troops out of Ukraine. Now Russia wants to be part of the discussions on Ukraine’s security. IF a deal is reached in coming weeks, Trump deserves a lot of credit for helping to bridge the gap and bring in European leaders to help make it happen. Of note, Russia bombed Ukraine within hours of the Trump/Zelensky meeting. Also, Russia is making threats of seizing more Ukrainian territory. Russian missiles hit US-owned factory in Ukraine despite the peace talks. Ukraine then obliterated part of Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline. Sadly, it does not look as though peace is near, and Trump’s proclamations were premature.

• FBI raids home of John Bolton, former Trump national security advisor

  • The speculation is Bolton may have sent confidential emails to his wife and daughter via email. I am supportive of this raid if it is fruitful. If the FBI comes up empty handed, it is an embarrassment. Trump claims he found out about it on TV and had no prior knowledge. However, it is clear there has been a feud between Trump and Bolton for some time. No arrests.

• Trump half-billion-dollar civil fraud fine overturned by New York appeals court

• Texas Senate Passes Congressional Map That’s Backed by Trump

  

• Ex-Biden White House spokesman says he only saw 46th president twice in two-plus years of service

  • Ian Sams was prognosticating on Biden’s mental acuity with almost zero interaction. His two interactions were “limited,” as the Biden team was protecting him. How is it possible that the White House spokesman had two limited interactions with the President in two years. What a joke. I was vilified for questioning Biden’s mental health in 2020.

• Federal judge orders some parts of ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ must be dismantled within 60 days – can no longer admit new detainees

• Trump administration is reviewing all 55 million foreigners with US visas for any violations

• $50,000 Signing Bonus, No Age Caps: The Blitz to Hire ICE Officers

• Rubio’s State Department yanks more than 6K student visas due to assault, burglary, support for terrorism

• President Trump has directed DNI Tulsi Gabbard to revoke the security clearances of 37 current and former intelligence officials, citing their alleged role in politicizing and manipulating intelligence related to the “Russia hoax.”

  • I have no problem with this action. If these people knowingly lied, they should no longer have security clearance.

• NYC could become a tourism hotspot – for sex – if socialist Zohran Mamdani becomes mayor, critics warn: ‘Shocks the conscience’

• Zohran Mamdani wants to end all misdemeanor charges

  • What could possibly go wrong?

    • Seems to me Mamdani is going to win handily absent a major shakeup.

      

• Billionaires For Socialism: The $2 Billion "Grassroots" Operation Behind Zohran Mamdani

  • Mamdani wants to do away with billionaires and is funded by Soros. The article details how money is funneled to Mamdani, the socialist clown. Another billionaire heiress donated $250k to a pro Mamdani Super PAC.

• Fed’s Cook says she will not be ‘bullied’ into resigning after Trump official accuses her of mortgage fraud

• U.S. government takes 10% stake in Intel, as Trump expands control over private sector

• Military Preparing Attacks on Mexican Cartels

• US seeks to deport Kilmar Abrego Garcia to Uganda after he refused plea offer in his smuggling case

  • I have zero problem with this one.

• Illegal immigrant trucker accused of killing three people failed English, road sign tests

  • He did not speak English, failed the test (2 for 12), only identified one of four signs, and was given the license to drive a truck in CA. The 1st Trump Administration rejected his work permit, but it was approved under the Biden Administration. Why would CA want this guy on the road?

• Loudoun County students suspended amid boys' locker room Title IX probe

  • This story is insane. A biological girl who identifies as a boy went into a boys’ locker room, and when the boys were uncomfortable, she videoed them (against district policy). The BOYS were suspended. It is unclear if the biological girl got into any trouble. Loudon County is a disaster. If a biological boy went into a girls’ locker room and started filming what would the response be. This entire idea of the opposite sex in bathrooms locker rooms is idiocy. In an effort to make the 1% feel safe, you are alienating 99% of the student population. I don’t want biological boys in my daughter’s locker room.

• Crime rates plummet in DC after Trump orders federal takeover

  • Stunning new data was just released showing that after President Trump’s Washington DC takeover, carjackings plummet by 83%, robbery by 46%, violent crime by 22% and car theft by 21%. In 7 days. Is Chicago next?

• Restaurant attendance takes a dive in DC after Trump’s police actions

  • Call me crazy, but if I lived in a high crime city and the federal government was trying to take criminals off the streets to make it safer, I would be happy about it. I was born in Chicago and have not been back in almost 10 years with zero plans on returning due to crime and safety concerns.

• Miami’s scooter boom fizzles amid Trump’s immigration crusade: ‘If you’re on a moped, they assume you don’t have papers’

• Florida beach cities ‘ghost towns’, local businesses down 30% this summer. Has the Sunshine State lost appeal forever?

  • The article outlines the sharp drop in tourism from Canada due to the Trump tariffs. I have heard from restauranteurs that business is down sharply in Miami this summer. Another reason is tourism from Latin Americans are down due to detention fears. The article also outlines families cutting travel budgets.

• Federal agents open fire at family truck in San Bernardino. But 2 different accounts describe what caused shooting

Middle East

• Queens bodega named ‘Gaza Deli and Grill’ ignites fear among Jewish New Yorkers — including Oct. 7 survivor: ‘I’m still not safe’

  • So the Washington Redskins had to change their name given it was offensive to Native Americans, but the Gaza Deli is ok? Last I checked, Hamas murdered, raped and beat many Jews while starving their own people. Let’s not forget, many countries now want to recognize Palestine as a state after the atrocities at the hands of Hamas.

• Huge crowds gather in Israel calling for hostage deal and end to Gaza war

• Neighbors hurl antisemitic slurs at father of Georgia woman killed working for Israel’s border patrol

  • Disgusting story. The bigot man was fired from the company he founded.

Other Headlines

• Why famed short-seller Andrew Left says he's betting against Palantir: 'It's become so absurd'

  • "Palantir at these levels isn't an "easy money" story; it's a high-multiple, hype-driven narrative," Citron wrote.

• ‘I almost fell off my chair’: Investors lose billions on meme stocks as ‘pump and dump’ scams multiply

  • Don’t play with these overvalued stocks. It’s a scam.

• Bessent says interviews for ‘incredible group’ of potential Fed chairs will start after Labor Day

• Electricity prices are climbing more than twice as fast as inflation

• Tiger Global Lags Behind Other ‘Cubs’ Even After Its July Gains

  

• Home Depot stock rises 3% as retailer maintains full-year forecast

• Target shares tumble as retailer picks new CEO, says sales fell again

• Walmart hikes sales and earnings outlook even as it says tariff costs are rising

  • Stock -5%.

• Moment Southwest pilot fails sobriety test before takeoff captured on bodycam footage

  • What about mandatory breathalyzer tests in the cockpit prior to takeoff?

• More Than Two Dozen People Linked to Jeffrey Epstein Have Died Under Mysterious Circumstances

  • I do not believe Epstein committed suicide. I also believe there is a massive cover up due to the people involved. Given the scope of the crimes affiliated with Epstein, the fact that only he and Maxwell have served time is a joke.

• Migrant allegedly scalded baby with hot coffee in sickening random attack after visa application was rejected

• Convicted rapist who assaulted Tinder date after SoHo House meetup skates with just probation thanks to lenient NYC judge

• How downtown Los Angeles became a boarded-up ghost town with hordes of drug-smoking vagrants and dozens of shuttered storefronts

  • I was in Downtown LA in April, and it is so different than it was 10 years ago. The place is gross now. Article lists store closings.

• Rich Londoners Hire Security, Leave Rolexes At Home Over Knife Crime, Robberies

  • Knife crime in London is +86% between 2014-2024.

• A cartel war bleeding Sinaloa dry: homicides rise 400% in the year after the fall of ‘El Mayo’

• The Bronx is learning! Charter kids excel on NY math and reading tests, surpassing public school students’ scores by whopping 25%

  • The public schools in NYC spend $36k/pupil and have awful results.

• Want your son to be a CEO? New study reveals the most powerful male name in the US — and you won’t guess what it is

  • Robert is the name of 21 Fortune 500 CEOs.

• ‘Pregnancy robots’ could give birth to human children in revolutionary breakthrough — and a game-changer for infertile couples

  • Maybe this helps solve the fertility problem, but at what cost?

• Ukrainian sniper claims world record kill shot from 2.5 MILES away wiping out two Russians with a single bullet

  • I want to put this into perspective. 2.6 miles is the distance between the GM Building on 59th Street and Washington Square Park in Greenwich Village.

    

Health

• Ivy League-trained psychologist: ‘A parent’s job is never to make their kid happy’—what to do instead

• I left the U.S. for Italy: 5 daily habits Italians follow for health, longevity and happiness

• The ‘Nordic diet’ can help you lose weight and prevent heart attacks — stock up on these foods

• Promising cancer vaccine could prevent recurrence of pancreatic, colorectal tumors

• This hidden heart condition is known as a ‘silent killer’ — how to know if you need treatment, even with no symptoms

• Cutting out one food type could nearly double weight loss, new study suggests

• These 10 foods are great for antiaging — including two blue zone staples and a dessert

Real Estate

• The rent vs buy decision weighs on many individuals. One of the biggest factors in wealth creation is home ownership. Home owner median net worth is $400k, while renter median net worth is $10k. However, today, it is far more affordable to rent vs buy as outlined in the chart below. High prices in recent years coupled with higher rates have made home ownership unattainable for many. The Goldman Sachs chart below suggests that renting is more attractive than buying today by one of the widest gaps ever recorded.

  

  

• The number of Americans earning at least $1 million a year has more than doubled in a decade—but these seven-figure households are far from evenly spread, with coastal states claiming the biggest share of the moneyed elites. Yahoo News recently examined the latest available income data from the Internal Revenue Service for the year 2022 to find out which states had the greatest concentration of households with adjusted gross incomes of at least $1 million. That figure does not include home equity, stocks, bonds, 401(k) retirement savings plans, or other types of investments, which are part of a person's net worth as opposed to earned income. The analysis revealed that nationally, roughly 800,000 taxpayers had an annual income of $1 million or more, up from 470,000 in 2013. Notably, even that higher figure accounts for roughly 0.5% of the 153 million income tax returns filed in 2022, according to TaxFoundation.org. Among all 50 states, Connecticut had by far the biggest share of affluent earners, boasting close to 90 million-dollar tax returns per 10,000 filers. Massachusetts had more than 76 million-dollar earners per 10,000 in 2022, while New York recorded over 71 seven-figure returns. On a related note, I have the number of billionaires in every state in the 2nd chart.

  

  

• Check out this post story of a huge estate 40 miles from NYC. A massive estate in the Hudson Valley village of Tuxedo Park is on the market for $29.5 million, the Wall Street Journal reported. The historic spread occupies a whopping 151 acres — nearly one-fifth the size of Central Park. Not only is the property the largest estate in the famously exclusive enclave, its listing price positions it as Orange County’s most expensive dwelling ever sold. The 16-bedroom property was last sold in the 1990s to the late Olympic fencer and investment manager Robert Dow and his wife, former asset manager Christina Seix, the Journal reported. The interiors of the mansion span 14,000 square feet. Guests are greeted with wood beams in the great hall, intricately carved mantels over wood-burning fireplaces, a banquet-sized dining room and a salon with gold leaf trim. Interior amenities include a yellow chef’s kitchen and a dedicated wine cellar.

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #813 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.