Opening Comments
Picture of the Week
Time Flies…In the Blink of an Eye
Quick Bites
Markets stocks, Oil/Gas/Treasuries, Retail Equity Investors, Bezos,
Didi, Biden Tax Plan, Labor Ransomware Attack-$70mm
Violent Weekend in US/Oakland/Chicago
Alvin Bragg NYC DA, SFO Shoplifting at Neiman’s
Spence School at it Again, Yale at it Again, Georgetown Kids Embarrassed
Adams Wins NYC Primary, Miami Condo, Biden Blunder
Trump on Charges, New Trump Book, Chip that Measures Cortisol
Virus/Vaccine
Data
Israel and Canadian Studies on Vaccine Efficacy
Lambada Variant
Singapore Not Counting Cases
Opening Comments
For those who loved the movie, The Wedding Crashers, I feel a little bit like Vince Vaughn’s character who needed to “recharge his batteries,” after a rough time at Secretary Cleary’s vacation home. I love that scene and cry from laughter when I watch the movie. However, for me, a few days of eating good (home cooked) food, exercise, tennis and sleeping in my bed was just what the doctor ordered. Not sure when I am heading back to relieve Jill from Uber duties, but it is in days. I had wanted to try to go to Bimini to fish, but the seas have not cooperated. Played 18 on Tuesday at Adios in 1:25. No one on the course. Summer in South Florida has some benefits. A little rain from Elsa, but nothing major. I thin I am heading back up tomorrow. I am well rested and sleeping on a nice bed and sheets is far preferred to the crap I am going to be on the next two months.
Picture of the Week
I try to find some fun and interesting pictures or videos and this one has been a bit memorized. This picture is of a rainbow python named MyLove. It is a motely-golden reticulated python at the Reptile Zoo in Fountain Valley, CA. Although this looks pretty, I sure hope I don’t find something like this one in my yard.
Time Flies…In the Blink of an Eye
I will be 52 years old in November. I remember when I thought people who were 30 were ancient. In my life, I have looked at things a bit differently than many other people. Part of my perspective helped me and part of it prevented me from being happy. I have never been completely satisfied in where I am in life. I was never one to “stop and smell the roses.” When I was a kid, I wanted to be older, bigger, stronger, faster. I wanted to be able to drive so I could get a better job to earn more money and be able to surf on my own. In high school, I could not wait to get to college. In college, I was dying to graduate to start earning real money. When I got a job, I wanted to be the first person promoted. I wanted to take on more responsibility and wanted raises and bigger bonuses. I made Managing Director at 28 years old at JPM and it was a big accomplishment and I did not even celebrate it. I wanted to know what was next. Yes, this helped me achieve some success, but in hindsight, I was never as happy as I should have been with my small or large accomplishments and I tended to focus on my failures to drive me. Trust me, there were plenty of mistakes and failures along the way.
Now that I am a parent with two teenagers, my head is spinning. I am not sure what drove it, but last night, I went through old pictures and videos of Jack and Julia over the years. I remember when they were born and could not wait until they could crawl, talk, walk, play ball…. Now, Jack will be in 9th grade and Julia in 8th. They are only in the house another handful of years. How in the hell did that happen? Now, I want time to stand still and wish I could have been more appreciative of my time with them when they were younger. Time flies.
Here are some pictures which I vividly recall of the kids and how they have grown. Sure does not seem like so long ago. Now Jack is bigger than me and Julia is no longer a little girl at 14 years old and 5’7”. I guess if I were giving a younger me advice, it would be to appreciate wherever you are in your life at the time you are there. You should not always be so focused on what is next, but enjoy today and know that over time, more things will come your way. Hope you like the pics.
In a related matter, I invited a friend over for dinner and drinks. I prepared a meal, made a big # of Hors d'oeuvres. Issue was, we planned for Wednesday and I made it Tuesday. I called and said, “When you coming?” He responded, “Tomorrow.” I checked my texts and indeed we said confirmed Wednesday. Yeah, getting old sucks. Sadly, I basically ate it all and felt like crap last night. Need to redo everything now. I really am losing it.
Jack in the tub. 2006
Julia in Costa Rica 2011
Kids in a hammock in Costa Rica 2011
Jack wore a suit like mine everyday to kindergarten. Holes in the elbows by middle of the year. I begged him to wear something else. He refused. Wanted to match dad.
Jack with his Chess winnings in NYC prior to becoming a golf addict
We were at Atlantis in Bahamas. Now, they can carry me. 2011
Julia surfing in Costa Rica at 6 years old
Jill and kids in NYC 2016
Swimming with dolphins in Cabo December 2016
Me and Julia at a party in NYC 2018
Queen snapper in Bimini. They live in 1500 ft of water, hence the huge eyes. 2018
Vail a few years ago just prior to Jill’s bike accident requiring emergency surgery. July 2018
Recent Julia photo
Jack at Kittansett last month
Quick Bites
The S&P 500 rose to a fresh record on Wednesday as investors poured back into trusty mega-cap technology stocks. The S&P 500 advanced 0.34% to an all-time high of 4,358 after the index ended a seven-day winning streak in the previous session. The Dow rose 104 points to 34,681. The technology-heavy Nasdaq closed flat at 14,665 despite hitting a fresh intraday record shortly after the open. With rates falling and Wall Street fretting about a peak in economic growth, investors have rediscovered their old Big Tech favorites. Apple and Amazon are both up about 15% over the past month, far outpacing the S&P 500′s 3.1% return. Apple rose 1.8% and Amazon gained nearly 0.6%. “As has been the case for some time, the direction of bond yields and tech stock have been joined at the hip,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Traders will be watching as the S&P 500 tech index moves closer to its relative price high established last September. A break above that level would certainly reinforce a sustained leadership cycle for tech.”
The 10 year Treasury is down to 1.32% as fell to under 1.3% today at one point. I do not understand these levels, but do believe the Fed has been buying a ton from what I have read and seen below. I wanted be short at 1.49% and still want to be short in here on the 10 year. At some point, the Fed will stop being so aggressive on QE and rate support.
As you can see in the crude oil chart below, it is up almost 50% YTD. The big dip was last spring during the storage crisis at the height of the pandemic. Remember, at one point, oil traded negative. Gas prices are roughly double the lows from last year as well. I paid under $1.5/gallon at one point and am paying above $3/gallon now. US Production will fall to 11.1mm barrels/day from 12.3mm in 2019. Article on gas prices in the US and the 2nd chart below is a good one for gasoline levels. Natural gas is +32% YTD as well.
Retail investors keep pouring money into markets, even as many of their favorite meme stocks and cryptocurrencies have languished. In June, so-called retail investors bought nearly $28 billion of stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis, according to data from Vanda Research’s VandaTrack, the highest monthly amount deployed since at least 2014. That even trumped the amount retail traders spent in January during the first meme-stock frenzy. The activity underscores the enduring influence of ordinary investors in markets. When the Covid-19 pandemic ushered in a wave of first-time traders, many market observers suspected these investors would retreat when the economy reopened. Instead, individual investors have grown in number: More than 10 million new brokerage accounts are estimated to have been opened in the first half of this year, according to JMP Securities. That is around the total for all of 2020.
The world’s richest man reached a record $211 billion net worth Tuesday after Amazon.com Inc. shares rose 4.7% after the Pentagon announced it was canceling a cloud-computing contract with rival Microsoft Corp. The rally raised Bezos’s fortune by $8.4 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. I think Bezos is an incredible visionary and everything I have read about his management style and long term view is remarkable. I am not hating on him, but want to put his net worth into perspective. The median family of 4 net worth is $121k and Bezos is at $211bn after a massive divorce. Bezos is changing the world and deserves his wealth in my opinion. His net worth is 1.7mm times the average American family. No, I am not suggesting he should pay some crazy incremental taxes as a result of his wealth.
Ride sharing giant, Didi plunged below the IPO price as China ordered the removal of the company’s platform from app stores while a cybersecutiry review of the company is completed. This is days after it raised $4.4bn in the second largest US IPO for a Chinese firm. ADRs fell as much as 25% to $11.58 wiping out $22bn of market value at one point. Readers, investing in China is not for the faint of heart. Proceed with caution.
This CNBC article questions if Biden will be able to get his tax hikes done for corporations and wealthy individuals. Blackrock and JPM opine on the topic.
American workers collectively saw a nice bump in their paychecks for June that may have to keep coming if conditions ever are going to get back to where they were before the pandemic hit. If there was one dark cloud over the month’s otherwise robust round of hiring, it was the tick higher in the unemployment rate and the stagnation of the U.S. labor force. Even as nonfarm payroll hires swelled by 850,000, the unemployment rate edged up to 5.9%. That was largely because the labor force participation rate, a key factor in devising the headline unemployment number, was unchanged at 61.6%. It all added up to more than 7.1 million fewer people holding jobs in June than in February 2020, the last month before the Covid-19 pandemic declaration. At the same time, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.6% year over year, both about in line with Wall Street expectations.
The boss of the company at the heart of a widespread hack that has affected hundreds of businesses said he briefed the White House and that attackers are demanding a single $70 million ransomware payment. The cyberattack that started to unfold Friday is estimated to have hit hundreds of mostly small and medium-size businesses and tens of thousands of computers. It quickly set off alarms in U.S. national security circles over concern that it could have far-reaching effects. There seems to be a recent sharp increase of ransomware attacks. It is scary. I get so much spam and so man phishing emails. I have been on the phone with a tech team at least a half dozen times in the past month given the # of potential hacks.
At least 150 people were killed by gun violence in more than 400 shootings across the country during the Fourth of July weekend as major cities nationwide confront a surge in violent crime, according to data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive. The data, which includes the number of shooting incidents and gun violence victims nationally over a 72-hour period from Friday through Sunday, is still evolving and will be updated. In New York, where gun violence has been rising to levels not seen in years, there were 26 victims from 21 shootings from Friday to Sunday, a decrease from the same period last year when 30 people were shot in 25 shootings, the New York Police Department said.
In Oakland, CA, the Fourth of July reeled into “12 hours of non-stop chaos” Sunday night with several victims wounded by celebratory gunfire, a homicide and a massive sideshow marred by gunfire. The night culminated at the sideshow, where more than 200 participants pelted police officers with debris and flashed them with hand-held lasers. Embattled Oakland Police Chief LeRonne Armstrong told reporters that the level of violence and gunfire overwhelmed his officers.
In the deadliest and most violent weekend this year in Chicago, 104 people have been shot over the long Fourth of July weekend, 19 of them killed. Among the wounded were at least 13 children and two Chicago police supervisors. Five of the kids were shot within nine hours Sunday evening through early Monday. Both the number of fatal shootings and the number of shootings overall are highs for 2021, according to a Chicago Sun-Times database of shootings. By 5 p.m. Monday, Chicago had recorded 2,000 shootings this year, the Sun-Times’ database shows. A University of Chicago student was killed by a stray bullet in the subway while coming home from his internship. Max Solomon Lewis, a 20-year-old junior from Denver, Colo., succumbed Sunday morning to injuries he suffered from the slug that pierced a window of the train at the 51st Street Green Line station, the Chicago Sun-Times reported.
Alvin Bragg appears to have won the Democratic primary election for Manhattan district attorney, making him the presumptive new leader of one of the most powerful prosecutor’s offices in the nation. Amid surging violence in Gotham, Manhattanites should be hoping that Bragg takes crime seriously. First, Bragg will immediately begin de-prosecuting certain offenses, refusing to punish violations of duly enacted criminal laws. These include resisting arrest, trespassing, fare evasion, marijuana possession, driving with a suspended license and any traffic violation. For those offenses that are prosecuted, Bragg announced plans to allow just about every offender to walk free the same day. “Non-incarceration is the outcome for every case, except those with charges of homicide or the death of a victim, a class-B violent felony in which a deadly weapon causes serious physical injury or felony sex offenses,” his campaign materials read. I have written extensively about growing crime in major cities. I have stated that I never once felt unsafe under Rudy or Bloomberg. NYC is now an unmitigated disaster for many reasons and the growing crime surge is playing a large part. After speaking with experts, I am supportive of bail reform in part. I am fine with it for 1st time, non-violent offenders and the statistics are compelling around recidivism rates. However, I am adamantly opposed to bail reform for violent offenders and repeat offenders. I do not know much about Alvin Bragg, but do worry his policies will not make a dent on the chaos in Gotham. I spoke with a person close to the matter who suggests Bragg is progressive, but not crazy. New York City police were trying to track down a man accused of dragging a tourist on the sidewalk as he tried to steal her purse last week. The 31-year-old woman from Russia and her friend were walking along West 15th Street in Chelsea on Saturday when the suspect grabbed the tourist and threw her into a scaffolding pole, according to police. The man then dragged the victim down the sidewalk in an attempt to take her purse. Before he fled, he punched the woman's 33-year-old friend in the face. Bragg, if you make DA, what do you do here? Remember, NYC relies on tourism. Innocent tourists being attacked is not exactly the tourism ad the mayor of the decade, DeBlasio is looking for today.
Police in San Francisco said late Monday they were investigating a brazen robbery at a high-end retail store in the center of the city. KTVU reported that the incident occurred at about closing time at a Neiman Marcus location. Citing witnesses, the outlet said display cases were smashed and items were lifted from racks inside the store before the suspects fled. Dion Lim, an anchor for KGO-TV, reported that city police confirmed the "shoplifting incident" at a Neiman Marcus at about 6 p.m. in Union Square. She tweeted that she was sent the video by a person whose wife works in the vicinity. The KTVU report said the suspects could be seen sprinting from the stores with some of the items, including what appeared to be handbags. They ran into getaway cars. Watch the video and see for yourself. I have been following shoplifting and crime in CA since the new laws made it a misdemeanor under $950. You cannot be charged with burglary for under the $950 limit due to Proposition 47. There are stories of shoplifters bringing calculators into stores to be under the limit. There are organized crime rings which focus on shoplifting in SFO and LA. Who benefits from this other than the criminals? The stores lose money and are required to raise prices for the hard working people who pay taxes. Seems unfair to me. I am all for giving some help to people in need. I am not in favor of allowing thieves to get off with no penalties of substance for stealing. The recent videos I have showed are pretty concerning. In a related story, Walgreens and Target are closing early in some areas of CA due to skyrocketing shoplifting. Click the link to read the story. Disgusting.
A furious group of parents at the exclusive Spence School in Manhattan have rejected an apology from embattled Principal Bodie Brizendine over a video shown to students that mocked white women — and are now targeting its board, too. The parent letter seething over the incident accused Brizendine of later issuing a mealy mea culpa that didn’t adequately address parental concerns. “This video is not part of the Spence curriculum,” the principal had assured parents in her note. “Our teacher and the School acknowledge that sharing a satirical video that made fun of white women was a significant mistake.” This is not the first time I have mentioned overly woke teachings at elite NYC schools. What am I missing here? Why is the teacher not fired? So you pay almost $60k (before donations) to send your daughter to the elite school and they teach you how to hate white people? 56% of the student body is White. The principal’s explanation was weak and showing anti-White videos to 8th grade girls is not high on my recommend list. More people are pulling their children out of these elite schools and many are finding their way down to Florida. No, it is not just one thing which pushes people out of NYC, but it is a combination of crime, homeless, drugs, filth, subways, overly wokeness, taxes, cost of living, weather, ability to work from home, quality of life and politics which have moved too far left for many to be comfortable. I love the fact that parents are speaking up and out about woke teachings. It will take strong willed people to fight against the movement of teaching hate in schools under the guise of inclusion. As an aside, in one school we tried to apply for pulled me aside and let me know they knew how much money I made and what I was expected to give if our child got into the school. I said, “Don’t waste your time.” Yeah, NYC schools expect you to give a fair amount.
Starting this fall, Yale University will be offering a course comparing prison systems in the United States, the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, and Communist China in the 20th century. Led by professor of history Timothy Snyder and professor of philosophy Jason Stanley, "Mass Incarceration in the Soviet Union and the United States," sets out to investigate the role that mass incarceration played in both superpowers during the latter half of the 20th century. "Incarceration is central to the understanding, if not usually to the self-understanding, of a society," reads a course description. "It is thus a crucial aperture into basic questions of values and practices." Do I feel the prison system in the US could be improved? Hell yeah. However, do I feel it is fair to compare it to Nazi Germany and Communist China, not so much. The future to me is looking bleak. Given the school teachings are increasingly become more and more left, the future generations will only know one side of the argument. I am not sure what pushed academia to left of AOC, but it is there. I want my kids to learn about everything and make up their own minds about what they believe in and what resonates with them. Forgot about my views or beliefs. Let’s teach kids how to learn and give them a broad array of views rather than hitting them over the head with hate, socialism and woke teachings.
A group of Georgetown University students said they were “embarrassed” to be American in shocking campus interviews ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend — but none of them could name a better country to live in. Ophelie Jacobson, a reporter for Campus Reform, surveyed students from the private college in DC Friday about whether they were “proud” of the stars and stripes. But instead of getting patriotic responses in the lead-up to America’s birthday, the reporter found that the majority of them struggled to say they were proud of being American — with several even admitting they were “embarrassed.” Students also admitted they would be willing to move out of the country — or even go so far as renouncing their citizenship because of how they felt about the nation. However, when asked if they could name a better country, nobody could come up with an answer. When we are teaching kids how bad it is to be American, no wonder why they are embarrassed. The education system is failing our children and the media is contributing as well. No, America is not perfect. Yes, we have more than our fair share of issues, but what country is better? Where can you come from nothing to be something?
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams has won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City after appealing to the political center and promising to strike the right balance between fighting crime and ending racial injustice in policing. A former police captain, Adams would be the city’s second Black mayor if elected.
San Francisco's lavish Millennium Tower, with soaring panoramic views and world-class amenities, opened to great fanfare in 2009. A dozen years later, it's still promoted "Your city within the city," a 58-story monolith with more than 400 multimillion-dollar units in San Francisco's tallest residential building. But, since it opened, the hulking blue-gray tower has sunk 18 inches into the soft downtown soil on which it was built -- and it's tilting, according to the Millennium's current engineer, Ronald Hamburger. There is a NY Times article entitled, ‘Should We Sell?’ After Collapse, Hot Florida Market Faces Uncertainty. With the catastrophe in Miami, there is increased concern both in Miami and in SFO for Millennium tower. Buildings similar in age to Champlain Towers are in question in Miami and the premium to buy newer will only expand. I am told the newer building, 87 Park, next to the fallen structure, has seen a handful of new listings since the collapse. No, I would not buy in an older building in Miami and there is ZERO chance, regardless of the engineering report, I would not buy in any of the buildings similar to Champlain. A broker told me today that he has a listing of a building built in 2009 and the buyer wants to do a full structural analysis on the building prior to closing. Building engineers in Miami are going to make money like Hedge Fund managers in coming months. Separately, I was told that insurance companies have contacted hundreds of buildings in Miami asking for various engineering reports and if they are not properly documented, the insurance will be void. I spoke with an owner of a condo in Miami and the building is getting all the engineering reports done to assist people in the sale of their units.
87 Park is the building above Champlain in the picture below. It was built in 2020.
President Biden struggled to answer a reporter’s question over the weekend on a topic he had just been briefed on, needing to reach for notes after being distracted by a cashier while checking out at a Michigan pie shop. The exchange reinvigorated concerns about Biden’s mental acuity. “Mr. President, let me know if I can ask you a question,” a member of the White House traveling press pool told the commander-in-chief. A smirking Biden — who was in the midst of paying for cherry pie at the register inside the King Orchards farm store in Central Lake, Michigan, Saturday — told the reporter, “Sure.” Watch the video. It speaks for itself. Remember, Biden is the President of the United States. This is not impressive.
Former President Donald Trump appeared to acknowledge the core facts in New York prosecutors' case against the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer even as he characterized the charges as a political attack aimed at him. Trump told a crowd in Sarasota, Florida, on Saturday night that "every company" does "fringe benefits," but he mocked prosecutors for pursuing the charges, saying it is "reminiscent of a communist dictatorship targeting your political opponents." The comments mark the former President's most substantial yet on the charges after they were unsealed last week in the first criminal case against his namesake company. "Never before has New York City and their prosecutors or perhaps any prosecutors criminally charged a company or a person for fringe benefits," Trump said. "Fringe benefits. Murders, OK; human trafficking, no problem. But fringe benefits, you can't do that."
In a separate matter, there is a new Trump book and there is a damaging allegation about a Trump comment. On a visit to Europe to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of the first world war, Donald Trump insisted to his then chief of staff, John Kelly: “Well, Hitler did a lot of good things.”The remark from the former US president on the 2018 trip, which reportedly “stunned” Kelly, a retired US Marine Corps general, is reported in a new book by Michael Bender of the Wall Street Journal. In a statement a Trump spokesperson, Liz Harrington, said: “This is totally false. President Trump never said this. It is made-up fake news, probably by a general who was incompetent and was fired.” I have said many times that Trump was the least Presidential President in American history. He said a lot of idiotic things. I would be surprised if he really suggested Hitler did good things, but anything is possible. He was a HUGE supporter of Israel and Jews during his Presidency and his daughter is Jewish.
A groundbreaking microchip that can measure stress hormones in real-time from a drop of blood has been developed. Researchers believe the innovation could drastically change the daily health of people without the need for cumbersome laboratory set-ups. Cortisol, and other stress hormones, regulate many aspects of physical and mental health including sleep quality. High levels of cortisol can result in poor sleep, which increases stress that can contribute to panic attacks, heart attacks and other issues. Researchers used the same technology used to make computer chips to build sensors thinner than a human hair that can detect biomolecules at low levels. I can tell you this, I have a great deal of respect for the scientists and technologists who are developing such remarkable medical advancements which will help people and save lives. The advancements coming at a rapid rate are amazing and collectively will be a game changer.
Virus/Vaccine
The increase in cases continues as seen in the chart below and is led by the Delta variant which now account for over 50% of the cases in the US. However, I want to put the cases into perspective. They bottomed at 11.1k/day on June 20 for the 7 day average and are now at 13k/day. Yes, this is an increase, but relative to 254k cases a day at peak, we remain in a much better place. I am questioning if the new data on breakthrough cases will slow down the back to work momentum, especially as the vaccination rates have stalled. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to trend in the right direction. Deaths are now at 250/day for the 7 day average after being 3.3k in January.
The Delta variant, a more transmissible and possibly more dangerous strain of coronavirus, now makes up more than half of all new US infections in the US, according to estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Delta accounts for 51.7% of new infections in the US, according to the CDC. The B.1.1.7, or Alpha variant, which has dominated for months, now accounts for 28.7% of cases, the CDC said.
Israel on Monday said the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was still very effective in preventing serious illness, while also reporting a decrease in preventing infections and symptomatic illness. The observation coincided with the ending of social distancing requirements and the spread of a new Delta variant. The vaccine effectiveness of preventing infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said, Reuters reported. The good news is the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing serious illness from the coronavirus, including hospitalizations. It should be noted, a loyal reader, MD, sent me a note clarifying the data. A Canadian study about Pfizer vaccine shows no decrease in efficacy despite millions of people participating relative to hundreds in the Israel study. Clearly, we need more info here.
The world's most transmissible Covid-19 strain has infected the UK with six cases reported and worrying research it may be more infectious than the Delta variant. The Lambda strain has puzzled World Health Organisation scientists after it spread to nearly 30 countries in the last four weeks. The mutation was originally discovered in Peru and is related to 81 per cent of the country's cases since April.
SINGAPORE could become one of the first countries to stop recording daily Covid case numbers in a bid to get life back to normal by treating the virus "like the flu". The south-east Asian country has recorded just 36 deaths since the start of the pandemic by implementing draconian rules to curb the infection rate, and officials now want to ditch measures such as counting infection numbers each day.