Twinning-Looking Up to the Gentle Giant, Rob Gronkowski, with Pictures to Prove it
1-15-23
Today’s Podcast-23 minutes long. Fun piece today. Improved sound and the link has a better look as I learned to edit it.
My last note was entitled, “Prevent Hacking-Also an Exclusive High-End WPB Intracoastal R/E Offer.” There is a high-end West Palm Beach R/E offering ONLY found in the Rosen Report.
Temperatures on Saturday hit the low-to-mid 40s in South Florida. This is rare and happened twice this winter. However, relative to Siberia where it is -80, South Florida looks pretty darn good.
I wrote a piece entitled, “Mr. Irrelevant” one month ago about the 49ers rookie back-up QB who is now 7-0. He won his 1st playoff game with 4 TDs and looks like an All-Star with a 131.5 rating in his 1st playoff game. What an amazing story, but we also need to give the 49ers defense some credit. Even Lebron Tweeted Purdy’s “got game.”
Pictures of the Day-I Made 71 Meatballs and Sauce
"Twinning" With Rob Gronkowski-Clearly We Were Separated at Birth
Quick Bites
Markets
Bank Earnings-Reserves Increasing
CPI
Natural Gas Prices in CA Skyrocketing
Other Headlines
Crime Headlines
Real Estate
Joe Sitt (Thor Equities) on Commercial and Ressie Markets
Manalapan, FL Mansion sold for $48mm
Greenwich, CT Market Update
Other R/E Headlines-Some Good Ones
Virus/Vaccine
COVID Deaths Overstated?
Pictures of the Day-I Made 71 Meatballs and Sauce
I believe my cooking skills are pretty solid. I can cook and bake most things and believe I can open a good (not Michelin Star quality) restaurant. I would liken it to a consistent local place in NYC. I cook 29 nights a month, as going out to dinner in Boca is anti-climactic and expensive. I like to make a lot of food and then just freeze and heat up leftovers. On Thursday, I used 7lbs of various meats (including wagyu) to make meatballs which included 380 oz of tomatoes (whole, diced and crushed), 13 onions, 60 cloves of garlic, 4 cups of Parmesan cheese, 3 cups of whole milk, 4 cups of breadcrumbs (3 cups of homemade and 1 cup of store bought), 6 eggs, as well as various herbs, pesto and balsamic vinegar. Here is what 71 raw meatballs looks like and photos of them cooking and sitting in Tupperware to cool.
Twinning-Looking Up to the Gentle Giant, Rob Gronkowski, with Pictures to Prove it
Kids can be quite funny. For example, my son, Jack, was convinced he was going to be the next Rob Gronkowski. For those who live under a rock, Gronk is a 6’6” 270 lb former NFL All-Pro tight end who won 4 Super Bowls with Tom Brady. He is viewed as one of the top tight ends of all-time.
Jack went as Gronk for Halloween most years and was playing receiver in flag football at Asphalt Greens in NYC under the “Friday Night Lights” program. He was telling anyone who would listen that he was coming for Gronk. Clearly Jack was well on his way to becoming the next All-Star NFL tight end.
I called in a favor from a dear friend (avid Rosen Report reader) from the Today Show, as Gronk was coming for an interview. We pulled the kids out of school for the morning and went backstage to meet with greatness. I thought Jack might pass out, and Julia was scared of the giant. Look closely in the second picture, as Gronk and I look identical. We look like twins separated at birth, just like Arnold and Danny Devito in the movie Twins. Gronk shook my hand, and I started laughing as it was as though I grabbed a handful of bananas.
Gronk could not have been nicer and autographed a few things for us. After all, Jack was his biggest fan. However, the in-person meeting did nothing to dissuade Jack from believing he could follow in Gronk’s size 16 shoes. Gronk continued his dominance in the NFL, and Jack eventually came to the conclusion that tight-end size might prove elusive for someone named Rosen with a father who is 5’9” and 165 pounds. Jack quit football to play golf after one practice of tackle football.
Jack and the rest of football fans are hopeful Gronk comes out of retirement. After all, he is only 33-years-old and could clearly help any NFL team. If Gronk does not come back, any NFL team can draft Jack Rosen. After all, he is now 6’ tall and 133 pounds soaking wet. He has not played football in years, but maybe his golf skills will transfer to the gridiron. He is also seeing a trainer 4 times a week, so in no time, he too might be 270 pounds. Yeah right. If not Jack, a team can draft me. Yes, I am old. Yes, I am injured constantly. No, I cannot take a hit, but I will look good prior to being killed by a linebacker. After all, Gronk and I are effectively twins, just as the picture shows.
Quick Bites
All of the major indexes fought their way into the green after beginning the day deep in the red. The Dow rose 113 points, or 0.33%, to 34,303. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 3,999, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.71%. The S&P and Nasdaq each posted their second consecutive up week and best weekly performance since November. The Nasdaq was the out-performer for the week after rising 4.82%. The S&P advanced 2.67%, and the Dow added 2%. YTD, the Dow is +3.5%, S&P is +4.2%, and NASDAQ +5.9%. The CPI came in as expected (discussed in 3rd bullet). On the week, the 10-Year Treasury yield fell 22bps to 3.5%, as inflation expectations are falling. The 2s/10s Treasury curve is -73bps today, close to recent lows of -84bps one month ago. Remember, a negative 2s/10s curve has been correlated to recessions since the 1970s as seen in the 1st chart below. The US Dollar continues to fall against major currencies, and after peaking in late September of 2022, it has largely been in decline (3rd chart), as US inflation is cooling and rate hikes are nearing an end. Oil was +8% on the week given the China reopening and continued dollar weakness. Bitcoin rallied 22.5% on the week to end at $20.8k. The VIX (S&P measure of volatility) is down to 18.4. It was 36.5 in March and 34.8 in May.
Bank earnings were heavily discussed on Friday as reserves increased due to recession fears. JPMorgan topped estimates for fourth-quarter revenue, but said a mild recession is now ‘central case’. Clearly, higher rates helped earnings. JPM took $2.3bn provision for credit losses, a 49% increase from the prior quarter and more than the estimated. Wells Fargo earnings were cut in half due to recent settlement, lower mortgage banking due to fewer originations and almost $1bn for credit losses. Last year, it reduced its loss provision by $452mm during the quarter. Citigroup saw 4th Q profit fall 21% and set aside $1.85bn for credit losses, slightly higher than estimated. All the stocks were down on earnings, but rebounded dramatically as the day went on along with the broader market. Also of note, Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America said, “the company expects a mild recession and is preparing for worse.”
The consumer price index fell 0.1% in December, meeting expectations, for the biggest drop since April 2020. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3%, also in line with estimates. On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 6.5% while core increased 5.7%. The biggest reason for the easing in inflation came from a sharp drop in gasoline prices, which are now lower on a year-over-year basis. The last chart shows seasonally adjusted changes from the prior month and if you add the prior six months up, you get .9% in total (red line in char). Inflation is going in the right direction, and the Fed needs to consider this when making rate decisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics chart can be found here. Wharton Profession Jeremy Seigel believes inflation has been dealt with and the Fed should no longer raise rates. Seigel believes inflation on a forward-looking basis is very low. I agree generally, but feel the Fed has more raises in them, but are nearing the end of the hikes given the collapse in inflation. Egg prices are +60% in a year and this article explains why.
Natural-gas prices have dropped around the world, but in California the cost of the heating and power-generation fuel remains aloft, threatening big bills for households and businesses. Spot natural-gas prices in southern California have this month averaged about $19.40 per million British thermal units. That is roughly five times the U.S. benchmark, which is set at a pipeline junction in Louisiana called Henry Hub and has traded around $3.75 this month. The premium was even greater last month, when gas in California at times exceeded $40 and Henry Hub spot prices dropped from more than $7 to less than $4. CA bills are doubling with the estimate of an incremental $120/month in January. Also of note, CA has the highest average gas prices at $4.4/gallon or $1.1/gallon more than the US average. Every day, there is yet another reason not to live in CA between natural disasters, taxes, high cost of living, homelessness, crime, woke policies….the migration to TX, NV, FL will continue. The substantial CA budget surplus is gone and 2023 will see a substantial deficit as I called multiple times.
Other Headlines
U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress
Given the reduced powers of McCarthy, I would not be shocked if things get testy over the debt-limit issue. The conservatives want to pull back spending, and this week can get interesting.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Rose in Jan
Nelson Peltz lays out his case for Disney proxy fight, slams Fox acquisition
Interesting CNBC article which outlines Peltz’ grievances with management, streaming and mistakes including the Fox acquisition.
The stock fell over 6% on the news before rebounding to -1%. Guggenheim downgraded TSLA to sell and suggested 4th Q estimates are too optimistic. Given the new vehicle price reductions, it is pressuring the TSLA used car market and buyers are upset.
JPMorgan shutters website it paid $175 million for, accuses founder of inventing millions of accounts and Dimon called it a "Huge Mistake.”
No excuses, this is sloppy. Thankfully, for a bank with an equity market cap of $400bn, this is irrelevant, but embarrassing. Dimon is a fantastic CEO and not afraid to make a mistake and learn from it. Now, please run for President.
Stripe’s internal valuation gets cut to $63 billion
Down 40% from highs. Think of the implications for all the funds who are long illiquid private companies.
Wall Street’s Lucrative Leveraged-Debt Machine Is Breaking Down
The article discusses banks unwillingness to make large loans in light of market conditions and being stuck with loans causing billions in losses. This is limiting M&A as well.
Global Debt Racing to 366% of Output Risks Next Crisis, S&P Warns
This is a concern, as in the US, think about the impact of higher rates on the deficit. In fiscal 2022, the US government debt interest was $399bn, and it is projected at almost $600bn in 2023. The chart below was from a WaPo article. Note the CBO forecast was from May of 2022.
The more time I spend on ChatGPT, the more exciting I find it. This thing is a game-changer.
96% of workers are looking for a new job in 2023, poll says: What to know before you job hop
This CNBC article shocked me. 40% suggest they need more pay due to inflation and others were looking for a better work-life balance.
A woman is ordered to repay $2,500 after her employer used software to track her time
Big Brother is watching you work and apparently firing you and asking for damages due to your work ethic.
WH admits more classified docs found in Biden's Delaware garage
I do not condone for Trump or Biden, but also don’t think it warrants crazy investigations for either. Plenty of other more material mistakes for each. Biden suggested the documents found in the garage were safe because they were next to his Corvette. Even more documents were found in his private library on Saturday. Articles suggested Hunter lived in the house which held Biden’s car and documents. If this is true, having a crack addict who once smoked Parmesan Cheese with access to classified documents creates a problem. Jim Jordan launched the first investigation as Judiciary chair into the Biden classified docs scandal. Garland also appointed special counsel to investigate Biden document scandal. If nothing else, I hope the classified documents make Trump and Biden not run in 2024. Trump did not give the documents back despite requests, but Biden’s team did. I was pleased that Don Lemon of left-wing CNN actually asked tough questions with Schumer on this topic. CEO, Licht wants more balance.
Trump Organization sentenced to maximum fine following tax fraud conviction
$1.6mm fine and 14 days to pay it.
Legal woes grow for George Santos as another watchdog files FEC complaint
Santos needs to resign, but remains defiant.
A corrupt file led to the FAA ground stoppage. It was also found in the backup system
Maybe Musk and Nick Cannon have it right and we each need to have 10+ kids.
UNC art club excludes white students
There are multiple examples of exclusionary policies at different schools.
University of Michigan protesters call for 'Intifada,' demise of Israel
UofM is 14% Jewish, and the name on the business school is Ross, as in Stephen Ross, who donated almost $500mm to the school. I wonder how he feels as a Jew about the protests against Israel. Protesters used the words, “one solution,” which is from Hitler. One would think with 145 DEI professionals and $500mm from a Jewish donor, UofM would be a little more respectful of Jews and the Holocaust.
People with diabetes struggle to find Ozempic as it soars in popularity as a weight loss aid
Unintended consequences due to the alternative use of a diabetes drug.
New UFO report shows hundreds more incidents than previously thought
Americans Rank Congressmen Lower Than Journalists and Car Salesmen for Honesty and Ethical Standards
It is a race to the bottom between Congressmen, Journalists and Telemarketers, and the politicians are winning. I wonder why. They are all so honest and trustworthy.
Crime Headlines
Woman, 23, found fatally shot in head inside NYC home by father, who is in “super pain”
Billionaire landlord Ken Griffin pushes NYC mayor to fix crime
Park Slope deli owner shames shoplifters with 'Thieves of the Week' video
I love this. We know the DA refuses to do anything about most crimes.
Florida hires more than 1,000 officers in six-month period, with bonuses totaling $5M
Real Estate
Joe Sitt, CEO of Thor Equities talks about the office market and Red states having a much more robust office market than the Blue states. He calls out SFO, NYC, and Chicago, while Florida and Texas are very busy. He also discussed the high-end residential market. It is a 4-minute video.
Rama Raju Mantena and Padmaja Mantena bought the mansion for $48.4mm, a steep discount to the asking price of $75mm. It is located in Manalapan at 1400 South Ocean Boulevard. The sellers bought the home for $25.2mm in 2016 from the builder. The 1.8 acre property has 200 feet of ocean frontage and a 16,200 ft home.
Mark Pruner of Greenwich Streets sent me his 2022 year-end review. Lots of amazing charts and information for those interested in the Greenwich market. Interestingly over half of 2022 sales were over list price.
Other R/E Headlines
Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet
Some economists are calling for a 20% drop in 2023.
S.F.’s largest landlord defaults on loan. Will it affect local real estate
Veritas Investments is in default on a nearly $450 million loan secured by 62 of its San Francisco rent-controlled apartment properties. The loan went into special servicing on Nov. 3, according to CMBS reports, and was not repaid when it matured on Nov. 15. The portfolio includes more than 1,700 rent-controlled units in San Francisco.
Under-Construction Penthouse to Become Priciest Home in Brooklyn’s Dumbo Neighborhood
The full-floor unit near the Brooklyn Bridge is in contract to sell for its full $17.5 million asking price. 4,270 sq feet with 500 sq foot terrace.
A Belgian Diamond Mogul’s Miami Beach Home Lists for $45 Million
Completed in 2022, the roughly 7,250-square-foot Venetian Islands property has a dock and a 57-foot-long heated pool
Virus/Vaccine
Data deterioration continues now that the holidays have ended. Deaths are spiking and back up to 567/day or up a whopping 79% from the prior two weeks. Now part of that can be explained by the slowdown over the holidays, when statistics tend to fall. Test positivity rates are falling from a recent high of 16% to 13% which hopefully continues.
Great article shockingly out of WaPo (opinion piece) around the over counting of Covid related deaths. If you don’t have WaPo, it is summarized here as well. The suggestion is deaths should be 30% of what is reported according to Dr. Wen. Many died with COVID, not of COVID, something I wrote about extensively.