You Know it is Bad When...

6-11-25

Opening Comments

My last newsletter was about the Michelin Star restaurant Nakazawa. The most opened links were the article outlining why to never charge your phone at an airport USB (I agree) and Auburn’s basketball coach accusing James Carville of spreading “hatred” with statements about Jews.

I have written extensively about the Greyserman family and their prowess in golf. The youngest son, Reed, just won the Florida Men’s Amateur last weekend - giving him his third start in a US Amateur. The rising sophomore at Princeton shot -8 on Saturday to put himself in contention and won in a playoff on Sunday. Remember, the eldest boy, Max, is #48 in the world on the PGA Tour. Max played in the Master’s and PGA and will be in the US Open this week and the British Open in July. Middle son, Dean, golfs at Stanford and also won the Florida Men’s Amateur in 2020. Congrats to the Greyserman family. Reed is turning into a monster on the course.

On flight back to Florida this afternoon until Friday. Friday-Monday mid-day in Hamptons. NYC Monday afternoon until Thursday morning. Then likely off to Massachusetts to watch Max Greyserman at the Travelers Championship June 18th.

Early send today due to travel.

• Pictures of the Day-Il Gattopardo

• You Know it is Bad When…

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • M&A and IPO Volumes and Impact

  • AI Impact on Website Traffic

  • NCAA Rule Changes to Pay Players

• Tariffs

• Politics

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Health

• Real Estate

  • Housing Inventory Building

  • $110mm Lot Sale in Indian Creek (Miami Beach)

  • Padel Associated with Wealth for Homes and Buildings

Pictures of the Day-Il Gattopardo

When I think of all the hot spots for restaurants in NYC, Midtown is near the bottom of that list. Downtown is where almost all of my favorite restaurants are located, especially south of 14th Street. However, Il Gattopardo on 54th never disappoints thanks to amazing Southern Italian food. The staff is virtually all from Italy and prepares dishes that make me feel as though I am in Italy. My friend and host grew up in Italy and speaks Italian. It seems every time we get together, we end up at Il Gattopardo and I never complain. There are generally powerful businesspeople there. The last time I went Howard Marks (Oaktree) and Joe Perella (Wasserstein Perella) were in the dining room. The restaurant is set in a townhouse built in 1897 by architect Henry Hardenbergh (Dakota Building and Plaza Hotel). If you want solid Southern Italian in Midtown, Il Gattopardo should be at the top of the list. We split a pasta pomodoro and full branzino and both were delicious.

• Food 8.1

• Service 8.0

• Ambiance-7.9 (I like the lunch vibe, and most men wear blazers or suits)

• Price-Standard Midtown Manhattan Pricing

You Know It’s Bad When….

I share a lot of things about my personal life with my readers, and it helps me to connect with many thousands of people across the world (50 states and 100+ countries). Today, I am sharing a painful experience from last week that is quite intrusive but may help you diagnose a serious issue if it were to happen to you or a loved one. One of my loyal readers and friends said something funny. “Eric, how is it possible you go through so many physical ailments? Do you do it just to have fodder for your letter?” Mitch, let me be clear, as much as I love new topics to discuss, nothing could get me to want to go through another kidney stone.

You know it is bad when I cancel dinner at Marea on Tuesday and Rao’s on Wednesday. I woke up on Tuesday, June 3rd as though everything was normal, but by 9 am, I started to feel pressure in my left groin area, starting just below the belt. Initially, I thought nothing of it, but as the day progressed, so did the pressure and my overwhelming feeling of needing to urinate. By 3 pm, the pain was getting severe, and my doctors thought going to the hospital was the right call. Some suggest passing a kidney stone is akin to childbirth. I am not sure of that but can tell you that at points my pain was an 8 out of 10. I assume if the stones are over 5mm, it would be brutal.

I gingerly walked to get cab on 26th and Madison after leaving the offices of 3i to head to Weill Cornell on 68th and 1st Avenue. The cab ride was brutal, and every pothole sent excruciating pain to my left groin. By the time I got to the hospital, I was unable to stand upright.

My mother-in-law met me at the hospital and helped me get seen in short order. I was struggling to answer the questions at points due to the pain. I was seen by an emergency room physician and checked into the ER. I gave blood and urine samples, and it was quickly determined that I had 4mm kidney stones.

I will spare many details, but the ER got a bit crazy during the 11 hours of my stay, and it was determined that the stone would pass on its own, so I left around 2 am Wednesday.

Although I was tired, I was nervous about how things would transpire and the potential pain in coming days. I slept between three to four hours a night Tuesday through Friday. To “flush” the stone, it is recommended that you drink a lot of water. The problem is it makes you urinate constantly, and it hurts to do that when you have a stone.

On Wednesday, the pain was intermittent. One moment, I would feel as though nothing was wrong and then moments later, I would be in severe pain, even requiring me to take pain meds at 4 am.

I went to see a fantastic urologist named Dr. Joeseph Delpizzo at Weill Cornell on Thursday morning. He walked me though what was happening. Apparently, the process of the stone moving from the kidney to the bladder through the ureters is the most painful part of the process. There are narrow openings in the ureters and the stone squeezing through those openings is when things get ugly. He suggested the stone would pass and I was to take Flomax and drink lots of water and stay hydrated.

I was very concerned about the ramifications if the stone did not pass. I will not go into details, but any man reading this can imagine why I will not discuss it. The surgery required is probably the most unpleasant thing I man can imagine happening to him physically.

After going through a couple more painful days, my anxiety was growing, and I was convinced the stone would require surgery. My pain started to be less regular by Friday, and I was confused but continued to urinate with discomfort. Magically, on Saturday morning, the stone ended up in my toilet. I felt it happen, but it was not nearly as painful as I feared or the process of it going through my ureter.

I left out plenty of details but can tell you the four days had my blood pressure through the roof at times, painful hours, limited sleep and fear of urinating. By Saturday afternoon, all was basically back to normal. How can something so small cause so much chaos? I felt the crystal-like kidney stone, and it was hard but brittle with sharp edges. No wonder it hurt so much. The labs are running an analysis on the stone and hopefully I can figure out how to avoid them in the future.

Thank you to all my readers who were sending me well wishes and checking in on me. It was thoughtful and appreciated. I hope none of you ever go through the kidney stone fun. Now, I need to make up for all those lost meals.

Quick Bites

• Tuesday, stocks rose as it appears US/China deal talks were progressing. Lutnick claims the talks are going “really, really well.” Trump claimed the US/China trade deal was done but that did not move markets materially on Wednesday. Also Wednesday, better than expected inflation data was unable to push markets in any meaningful direction. As of 1:15 pm, markets were up slightly. The consumer price index rose 0.1% in May from April, less than the 0.2% estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.1%, less than expected. The inflation data helped to lower bond yields with the 10-year -6bps to 4.41%. Bitcoin has been hovering around $110k and +17% on the year despite hitting $75k in April.

  

• I have written about the sharp decline of M&A and IPO activity since 2021. This Apollo chart outlines the decline in M&A activity. Measures of M&A activity are approaching the lowest levels in decades, driven by the double whammy of high uncertainty for business planning and interest rates staying higher for longer. The weak M&A environment will continue. Why? Because unsustainable fiscal policy is putting upward pressure on long-end rates, while inflation is putting upward pressure on front-end rates, driven by tariffs, reduced immigration, and housing affordability boosting rental inflation. Remember, the lower M&A and IPO activity crushes distributions for PE and venture funds. Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and NYC Pension Fund all have been under funding pressure and have sold or are trying to sell portfolios to raise cash. Both charts below outline the significant decline in M&A and IPOs.

  

  

• The disruption from AI is massive, and my focus has been on jobs and efficiency. This WSJ article outlines how traffic to news sites is crashing due to chatbots. Chatbots are replacing Google searches, eliminating the need to click on blue links and tanking referrals to news sites. As a result, traffic that publishers relied on for years is plummeting. Traffic from organic search to HuffPost’s desktop and mobile websites fell by just over half in the past three years, and by nearly that much at the Washington Post. Google’s introduction last year of AI Overviews, which summarize search results at the top of the page, dented traffic to features like vacation guides and health tips, as well as to product review sites. Its U.S. rollout last month of AI Mode, an effort to compete directly with the likes of ChatGPT, is expected to deliver a stronger blow.

  

• Big news in college sports that will change the landscape for paying student athletes. Judge Claudia Wilken announced the approval of the House v. NCAA settlement Friday in the U.S. Northern District of California. It’s a landmark decision that’s likely to usher in a revenue-sharing era among college sports, effectively allowing schools to pay their athletes. The ruling also created a clearinghouse for third-party NIL deals, which will have a say over NIL arrangements of $600 or more. Starting July 1, schools will be able to share $20.5 million with its athletes. Football is expected to receive 75%, followed by men’s basketball (15%), women’s basketball (5%) and all remaining sports (5%). Power Four football programs will have between $13 to $16 million to spend on rosters during the 2025 season under the settlement agreement. Paul Finebaum, known for his devotion to SEC football, views this situation as one that could jeopardize the momentum of women’s sports and non-revenue sports. “The real casualty of all this, I believe, is going to be the one part of college athletics that has grown so much,” said Finebaum. “We watched the Women’s World Series last night, a million-dollar pitcher, by the way, for Texas Tech. Women’s sports, I think, are going to suffer from this. If you’re one of these Ohio States or Alabamas, and you’re dividing up $20.5 million, you know where most of it’s going, it’s going to football. That’s really a major casualty.

  

Tariffs

• US-China trade deal is done, says Trump

  • Trump suggested it will open op China to American trade and would allow Chinese student to attend American universities. Also, American would be given access to rare earth materials.

• Trump tariff revenue soars 78%. Who's paying them?

• Dimon says Trump tariffs may make 'the soft landing a little bit softer' instead of making the 'ship go down'

  

Politics

The big news this week was about the protests in Los Angeles in response to ICE raids of illegal immigrants. The “mostly peaceful” (sarcasm) protests required police to use flash bangs, tear gas, and rubber bullets. Senator Cory Booker called the protests “peaceful,” as did Elizabeth Warren. Both were critical of Trump for his use of the National Guard and Marines who were called in to aid overwhelmed police officers. Cars were set on fire and the 101 was shut down. Governor Newsome dared Trump and Homan to arrest him, and Trump suggested Homan should arrest Newsom. The CA Attorney General announced a lawsuit against Trump for deploying the National Guard. A TV reporter questioned if there were riots as they were unfolding behind him. You just cannot trust the news. I just don’t get it. People are here ILLEGALLY, and protesters are burning cars, looting businesses, attacking cops and police cars, closing down highways, and overwhelming police to prevent ICE agents from doing their jobs. Why would you not want assistance if you were the governor or mayor? The cops sure need the help. These protests sure don’t look peaceful to me. Here is a video of a sicko throwing rocks at cars. He was identified, and the authorities are searching for him. I hate to think what a violent protest looks like. Footage shows anti-Ice protestors doling out tactical gear in LA. Who is funding this behavior? Where is the money coming from? A protestor set a trap for horse mounted police trying to light them on fire with gasoline. Anti ICE protestors burned and spit on an American flag while chanting “F#$@ Trump.” If you hate America, you can move to North Korea, China, Cuba, Yemen, Gaza, Venezuela, or a host of other places. Remember, CA is the largest Sanctuary State, and there are orders for the police to not assist ICE in detaining illegals, even if they are criminals. Check out this video of Newsom from 2024 asking for additional federal resources across the state due to border issues. CNN’s Brian Stelter is suggesting the videos of violence and riots may be altered and don’t believe what you see. Here are more “peaceful” protesters trying to break into a store while employees scramble to stop them. This is the Apple store in LA getting looted, but according to Stelter, it never happened. If things are fine, why did Newsom implement a curfew? Even CNN outlined Trump’s approval ratings on immigration issues has gone up “like a rocket.”

• National Guard deployed in Texas as protests sparked in 35 US cities

• LA deployments to cost $134 million and last 60 days, Pentagon says

• San Francisco police arrest more anti-ICE protesters than Los Angeles

• ‘Worst of the Worst:’ ICE Agents Arrest Convicted Killer, Child Molester, Domestic Abuser in Los Angeles Raid

• Mass shooter who opened fire at graduation party is just one of the migrants busted in LA ICE raids

• Newsom Tells Nation That Trump Is Destroying American Democracy

  • Gov. Gavin Newsom of California called on Americans to stand up to President Trump in a nationally televised address.

• Over 80 arrested during chaotic NYC anti-ICE protest as thousands flood the streets

• The Scholar Who Predicted America's Breakdown Says It's Just Beginning

  • Crazy photo of burning vehicles in the article.

    

• Trump Called Musk ‘Big-Time Drug Addict,’ Said Physical Fight With Treasury Secretary Was ‘Too Much’

• Gory details of Elon Musk's 'rugby tackle' of Scott Bessent spill out as White House leaks escalate

  • WWE meets the Oval Office. Read the details. Stunning. This is probably why Musk had the black eye as according to the article Bessent hit him after being checked.

• Trump says his relationship with Musk is over, slamming the door on the once-staunch ally who tried to de-escalate their feud

• JD Vance says the ‘blood feud’ between Trump and Musk is ‘not going to be good for Elon’ but admits he ‘suffered a lot’ for the White House

• Trump Confronted Musk in Private Before Their Blowout Public Fight

• Gabbard warns of ‘nuclear holocaust’ in ominous social media video

• Group Backed by George Soros to Plow Millions Into Turning Texas Blue

• Far-left NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani urges boycott of Cornell school with ties to Israel: ‘Blatant antisemitism’

  • Anyone who supports this candidate does not support Israel or Jews.

• The new Don Jr.-connected D.C. club has been a mystery. Here are the details.

  • Highest tier is $500k, but there will be cheaper options available.

Middle East

• Greta Thunberg shamelessly mocked as she’s deported from Israel after ‘selfie yacht’ seized

  • The Jew-hating Thunberg should move to Gaza for a year. Israelis wanted the people on board to watch October 7th footage, and they refused.

• Islamist terror leader calls for Trump, JD Vance assassinations over pro-Israel views in disturbing video

• Great video of a very articulate woman outlining anti-Zionist behavior.

• Dramatic footage captures moment body of Hamas chief Mohammad Sinwar is pulled from hidey-hole

• Iran says Israeli ‘treasure trove’ of secret documents to be unveiled soon

• Trump administration redirects 20,000 anti-drone missiles meant for Ukraine, Zelensky confirms

  • The anti-drone missiles were instead sent to US troops in the Middle East.

• Israel’s tourism industry remains on brink of collapse despite ceasefire, sector chief warns

  • Annual tourist entries are -80% from 2019.

• Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, on what happens to Pro-Palestine protesters at Florida Schools.

Other Headlines

• Inflation fears receded in May as Trump eased some tariff threats, New York Fed survey shows

• DoubleLine’s Gundlach says to buy international stocks on the dollar’s ‘secular decline’

• CEO recession expectations decline from April scare, survey says

• Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman shares the secret that got him through his lowest moments

• Apple’s WWDC underwhelms on AI, but software gets biggest facelift in over a decade

• Anduril tops 2025 CNBC Disruptor 50 list as interest and investment in defense tech booms

  

• Lawmakers Traded Stocks Heavily as Trump Rolled Out ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs

  • The fact that this crap is allowed is criminal. Lawmakers should NOT be able to trade stocks.

    

• Marine vet fighting for his life, paralyzed after being shot by illegal migrant who had been arrested and released 4 times

  • These stories make me crazy.

• Another Chinese scientist — from Wuhan — charged with smuggling illegal biological material into US

• Ever Wondered How Many Hands Touch Your Food at a Restaurant Before It Gets to You?

  • Having worked in dozens of restaurants, you don’t want to know.

• You’ve Heard of Fine Wine. Now Meet Fine Water.

• The salary a single person needs to live comfortably in all 50 U.S. states—it’s over $120,000 in 2 places

• Scientists make jaw-dropping find after drilling more than 1,500 feet into Antarctic ice: 'We even discovered a school of lobster-like creatures'

• What if your house changed color with the seasons? This ‘climate-responsive’ paint could make it happen

• Alcaraz produces another major comeback to win French Open final in five-set thriller against Sinner

  • This was an amazing match that lasted 5:29 and resulted in Sinner winning 193 points and Alcaraz winning 192 points. Sinner was up two sets to zero and lost the next three sets in a stunner. Amazing comeback by Alcaraz.

• Ultrarunner Will Goodge endured hallucinations and sleepless nights during 2,387-mile run across Australia in 35 days

• The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology

  • The Pentagon reportedly doctored UFO photos in the 1980s to distract from the real activity at Area 51, the development of stealth fighter jets.

Health

• I’m a heart surgeon — 3 warning signs you shouldn’t ignore, including a subtle red flag

• Little-known cells might be key to human brain’s massive memory

• Why men with broken heart syndrome are more likely to die, according to experts

• Dating apps might be messing with your mental health

• I’m a dermatologist — what you really need to know about picking a sunscreen, including 2 key ingredients to look for

• Jack Daniel's maker reveals surprising reason why Americans are drinking less whiskey

  • Cannabis, weight loss drugs, and lower demand from Gen Z.

Real Estate

• The housing market is slowing in more markets. There are approximately 1.9mm homes for sale in the USA and only 1.5mm active buyers. “The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar.” Sellers are already feeling the sting. Take a single-family home in Sonoma, California: once listed for over $3.5 million during the pandemic boom, the 3-bedroom, 4-bathroom property eventually sold for $1.86 million — nearly half its original price. I am seeing more inventory sit on the market, price reductions, and an increasing number of anxious sellers relative to how the South Florida market has been in recent years.

  

• While housing inventory is growing in many cities across the country, the highest end product from Miami to Jupiter remains in demand. The lot next door to Bezos’ property in Indian Creek was asking $130mm and just went under contract for $110mm. For perspective, the lot last sold in 2018 for $27.5mm. In some South Florida markets, prices have quadrupled since before the pandemic. The 2-acre lot has 200 ft of water frontage and views of downtown. Bezos bought the two lots next to the one that just sold for $78 and $79mm in 2023. Those prices were considered sharply higher than previous sales and now $110mm for one lot set the bar higher. Separately, a 4,640 square foot condo in the Four Seasons asking $19mm and went under contract last week as well.

  

• Readers know my love of padel, and this article outlines its status symbol for the wealthy for homes and buildings.

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #792 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.