Rosen Report Swag
8-30-23
Opening Comments
The last piece on Expectations Management was well received and the most opened links were the 2-minute video of me discussing the topic and the short video of the fight on the NYC Subway.
I flew out of Ft Lauderdale this am and may have missed some stories today. I am fishing 98 miles southeast of New Orleans the next couple days. The storm luckily missed South Florida but was very powerful and destroyed parts on the West coast of Florida. The CAT 4 Hurricane Idalia had sustained winds of 130mph and 160mph gusts. I am hoping people heeded the warnings and got out of harm’s way. I just cannot imagine the damage with the storm surge. Just want the insurance industry needed. Rates will continue to climb.
For some reason, people think I look like Matthew McConaughey, but I don’t see it other than the hair. A reader just sent me this picture of Garrett Stubbs from the Phillies and suggested that it looked like me. I do see the resemblance here and we are close in size. I just don’t think I can see a 100mph fastball, let alone hit it. Another reader was at the US Open and claimed I had yet another Doppelganger. No, I am not at the US Open or on the Phillies.
I am hosting a panel for 3i Members on September 21st with Alicia Levine (Head of Strategy-BNY Mellon) and Peter Boockvar (CIO-Bleakley), two of my good friends who are market experts. I have a wide array of questions on topics including: equities, the Fed, Consumer, China, AI, Government Spending, and more. I will put the recorded podcast in a future piece after the 21st of September. 3i Members are able to participate live and ask questions during the webinar.
Markets
China’s $10 Trillion Hidden Debts
Lithium Shortage/Components of an EV Battery
Cannabis Moves Today
How Couples Meet
Migration Patterns
$4mm+ Trailer For Sale In Montauk
R/E Lending Down Sharply
Bullish Zillow Housing Call
Picture of the Day
A reader sent me this chart of spoken languages which I found interesting which can be found in this article. There are over 7,000 languages in use across the globe, but for various reasons (like, for example, colonialism), some are spoken a lot more around the world than others.
Rosen Report Swag
I recently bought Rosen Report hats to show my appreciation to my most loyal readers and they were just delivered. Nothing makes a newsletter more official than swag and sponsorship. I am sending 25 hats to the most consistently helpful readers. They have contributed by getting me a lot of new subscribers, sending me story ideas, reading pieces in advance of publication, sending me thoughtful feedback and getting the word out about the newsletter.
The first batch of hats will surely become collectors’ items worth a small fortune in a few years’ time. Think about the value of an early Barbie Doll, Beanie Babies, Cabbage Patch Kids, GI Joe, or a great rookie baseball card. These sexy hats will surely be in the category of valuable mementos someday.
Going forward, I will be running contests with prizes being the most coveted hat in the country. I will be randomly sending hats to those who have consistently high open rates as well. I will also hold contests for those who help drive the most new subscribers through the end of September. It is impossible for me to keep track, so if you get a bunch of subscribers in the next month, send me the list and I can confirm who signed up and those with the most subs will get a hat. Check out the limited edition cap below. Come on, man, this is another level hat. I fear being mugged by a crazed fan who desperately wants Rosen Report swag.
Keep the ideas flowing and feedback coming. I am doing more speaking engagements, creating additional video content, and building the Rosen Report with your help. Wear your hat proudly and get the word out. I am yet to advertise, and this has grown 100% by word of mouth.
The most valuable Rosen Report hat will be this one of a kind. I did not like the color on the back of the hat, so only one in production. I think I might donate it to the Treasury Department to auction it off in 10 years to repay trillions in debt. In the meantime, I will proudly be donning the rare hat around town, but only on special occasions such as weddings, funerals, and Bar-Mitzvahs. The orange piping is legit.
Quick Bites
Stocks were off to a hot start Monday with the S&P and Nasdaq +1.4% and 1.8% respectively. The S&P 500 advanced Wednesday for a four-day winning streak, as investors assess new U.S. economic data. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index came in at 106.1. That’s well below a Dow Jones estimate of 116. The Conference Board also said average inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased, pressuring overall confidence, while the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions declined. Annual gross domestic product growth was downwardly revised on Wednesday to 2.1% from the previous 2.4% forecast. Treasuries rallied sharply on the news with the 2-year yield -16bps and the 10-year -10bps on Tuesday. Bitcoin rallied more than 5% as court sides with Grayscale over the SEC in crypto ETF case. Greyscale had wanted to turn its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF and was blocked by the SEC. Greyscale was +17% on the news Monday. Grayscale CEO lays out next steps after ‘huge victory’ against SEC.
I have been writing about China and growing concerns about the economy, deflation, youth unemployment, real estate, aging population… A new concern is China’s $10 trillion of debt from local governments which was used to fund infrastructure projects. The Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFV’s) are a for of off-the-books lending. This article outlines LGFV’s and how they work. The LGFV sector has grown exponentially since the 2008 global financial crisis, when the Chinese government made efforts to ensure that the nation's infrastructure and public services segments expand fast enough to sustain its remarkable economic growth, according to Bloomberg. As risks tied to the sector mount, banks are unwilling to lend more, investors are turning their backs on bonds, and viable projects are harder to come by, according to several anonymous employees interviewed by Bloomberg. Although none of the LGFVs have actually defaulted on their debt yet, the mounting stress in the sector echoes the crisis in China's real-estate industry, which began in 2021 and has reverberated around global markets ever since. In another area of concern is outlined in this CNN article, “The ‘curse of 35’: In China, millennials are already too old for some employers.” The term was originally coined on social media to describe rumored lay-offs of older workers by major tech companies, but it has since become so widespread it is referenced even by advisers to China’s ruling Communist Party. Also, China banks are cutting rates on existing mortgages on first homes to stimulate growth.
I am all for going green and have owned a Tesla for 6 years, but have been consistently questioning the ability of the world to aggressively go green given rare earths limitations and costs, not to mention infrastructure/charging stations and grid power. Remember, the grid in the US is powered 20% by coal and 40% by natural gas and we have seen many power grids struggle recently (CA, TX, AZ, PA, and others). This article suggests there could be a major lithium shortage as soon as 2025. The world produced 540,000 metric tons of lithium in 2021, and by 2030 the World Economic Forum projects that global demand will reach over 3 million metric tons. According to forecasts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, EV sales are set to reach 13.8 million in 2023, but will subsequently proceed to skyrocket to over 30 million by 2030. As an owner, we also need to see a longer battery range. I found the key minerals charts in an EV battery in a Govind Bhutada article from Visual Capitalist.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has recommended easing restrictions on marijuana, a department spokesperson said on Wednesday, following a review request from the Biden Administration last year. Nearly 40 U.S. states have legalized marijuana use in some form, but it remains completely illegal in some states and at the federal level. Reclassifying marijuana as less harmful than drugs like heroin would be a first step toward wider legalization, a move backed by a majority of Americans. Marijuana is currently classified as a schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act, meaning it has a high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use, along with drugs like heroin and LSD. HHS is recommending reclassifying marijuana to say it has a moderate to low potential for dependence and a lower abuse potential, which would put it in a class with ketamine and testosterone. If marijuana classification were to ease at the federal level, that could allow major stock exchanges to list businesses that are in the cannabis trade, and potentially allow foreign companies to begin selling their products in the United States. Some believe this is a step closer to passing the SAFE act. The MSOS Cannabis ETF was +20% today.
A reader and growing contributor, Ray, sent me the first chart about how couples meet which I found interesting and concerning. Even though it is dated by a number of years, I can only imagine the changes are more pronounced today. The days of meeting someone at school, through family, work, or a neighbor…are largely gone and Online is dominating the chart. There are 60 million people online today for dating in the USA and almost 400 million in the world. Dating app revenue was $5.6bn in 2021. Millennials swipe for 10 hours a week on average, a scary statistic and the average age of an online dater is 33 years old. I speak with teens who suggest they have close friends they have never met or spoken with on the phone; only Direct Messages, Snapchat have been used to communicate. I am a connector and like to meet in person. The new world is leaving my kind in the dust. When I was single, going to a small party, the gym, a restaurant or through friends was the way I met my dates. I guess it is swipe right or be alone today.
Other Headlines
A recession might have been simpler than what awaits the U.S. economy
Interesting Thoughts from Fortune Magazine.
Regional banks face another hit as regulators force them to raise debt levels
Labor unions are pushing hard for double-digit raises and better hours. Many are winning
Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon
How long can Solomon last?
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy warns remote workers: ‘It’s probably not going to work out for you’
‘Not just money and math’: Young people are willing to sacrifice returns for ESG
Vanguard joins BlackRock, cuts support for shareholder items on climate, social issues
August 2023 National Poll: Trump Debate Snub May Open Door for Other Candidates
One can dare to dream.
‘He Should Quit’: Donald Trump Just Got Hit With a Devastating New Poll
50% of those polled suggest Trump should quit the race.
Hunter was copied on some government business emails including ones about Ukraine. How much more evidence is needed to suggest that something is seriously amiss on the foreign dealings topic with the Biden Family? Comer wants the unredacted emails from the National Archives and I believe the public should know the truth. I have been clear that Biden and Trump are not my first picks for 2024. Find me new blood please.
Biden is widely seen as too old for office, an AP-NORC poll finds. Trump’s got other problems
According to the same poll: Democrats, Republicans and independents want to sweep a broad broom through the halls of power, imposing age limits on the presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court. In all about two-thirds of U.S. adults back an age ceiling on candidates for president and Congress and a mandatory retirement age for justices. The poll found Trump to be “Corrupt.” America, must demand better than Trump or Biden.
Judge rejects Trump bid to push federal election trial to 2026
But the judge also said that she would reject a proposal by federal prosecutors to bring the case to trial in less than five months. This is the election interference case and will begin one day prior to Super Tuesday.
Harris had the lowest net approval rating in recent history at -17%. For perspective, Pence was -4%. She has a a 51.3% disapproval rating. Who cares what she thinks. She is awful.
Mitch McConnell freezes, struggles to speak in second incident this summer
=
Credit rating agency anticipates ‘resilient’ Florida economy to outpace U.S. inflation
Fitch Ratings recently affirmed Florida’s AAA credit rating, the highest achievable among the credit rating organization. The U.S. was downgraded to AA+.
Rising Gasoline Prices Hit Inflation-Weary Americans
Mysterious new California city backed by some of the biggest names in Silicon Valley, report says
A former Goldman trader has spent more than $800mm on land to build Utopia and has backing from Reid Hoffman, Marc Andreesen, Michael Moritz and others.
Times Square back to the bad old days: ‘It’s a sh-thole’
I was there for a Broadway show last month and I agree it was disgusting.
Bat attacker who targeted good Samaritan during NYC fight over dog admits, ‘I beat his ass’
Read this story and look at these pictures and tell me this man should be out on $25k cash bail. The attacker was choking his dog and the good Samaritan tried to intervene.
Mob of masked thieves clear out shelves at LA Macy’s as stunned shoppers look on
Chicago TV news crew robbed at gunpoint while reporting on a string of robberies
Masked gunmen robbed the TV crew. I was born in Chicago and lived there after college. Nothing could get me to live there again.
San Francisco Nordstrom closes after nearly three decades in business amid rise in crime
There are actually people who feel San Fran is too tough on crime. I am not one of them.
Faculty member fatally shot in University of North Carolina building
Teen killed outside McDonald’s in ‘sweet-and-sour sauce’ dispute, police say
The attacker and victim were both 16-year-old girls and it happened in DC.
Most Americans don't understand this key metric when planning for retirement
I agree 100% with his advice.
Dave Ramsey: Stop Making Everyone Else Rich — 3 Expenses To Cut
Excessive credit card use and Expensive cars are two of the three. Check it out. I agree.
The world’s richest people use this top secret, ultra-exclusive app — we got access
Myria has only just launched, but it’s already becoming a must-have for the filthy rich, doubling as a private concierge service and an online social club for the 1%. How is it that I learned of this from reading the post?
Ozempic appears to curb patients' cravings for booze, cigarettes and even GAMBLING
France has too much wine. It’s paying millions to destroy the leftovers.
IF you are a good producer, you can send it my way. I can never have enough good vino.
Hurricane Idalia strengthens en route to Florida, threatening dangerous storm surge
Expected sustained winds of 115mph and stronger gusts with storm surge of up to 15 feet.
5,000 pilots suspected of hiding major health issues. Most are still flying.
I had dinner with a commercial pilot last week and he was complaining about the quality of new pilots. It was a concerning conversation.
Simone Biles Wins Record 8th All-Around Title at U.S. Gymnastics Championships
She is 26 years old. The women on the team average 21 years old.
California hits walk-off home run to win Little League World Series
Curacao had tied game up with grand slam earlier
Family found walking on all fours 'could be missing link between man and ape'
I thought this was a joke, but it was on 60 Minutes Australia. It is fascinating and the pictures are crazy.
Neil deGrasse Tyson on UFO claims: ‘We would know about it’
Very disappointing commentary from the astrophysicist.
Real Estate
Florida might be known as a retirement destination, but it’s attracting plenty of young — and wealthy — newcomers. Florida is the No. 1 state bringing in and keeping the young and rich, according to a recent analysis from SmartAsset, which ranked states based on net migration. The financial site determined the states netting the most young professionals, ages 26 to 35, who earn at least $200,000 per year in adjusted gross income, based on the most recent publicly available IRS numbers from 2021. That year, some 3,391 high-earning young people moved to Florida; 1,216 left, leaving the state with a net migration of 2,175 wealthy young people, as determined by SmartAsset. I loved my time in NYC from 27-42 but it became too challenging. I was not liking the direction of the city and it has only deteriorated since. I enjoy going back for a few days, but happy to be living in Florida. I would only move back for an amazing job opportunity that is too good to pass up.
This trailer park home is aiming to sell for the price of a luxury residence.
In Montauk Shores, the tony Hamptons trailer park where an off-market property sold for a record $3.75 million earlier this year, an abode is now seeking $4.4 million for sale. The 2,150-square-foot property, as it’s advertised in its listing, may appear humble for such a price — but should it trade hands for that sum, the trailer park will have another record on its hands for 2023. I have surfed here. Way too crowded for me, but the waves can be amazing.
As a wave of distress rolls towards commercial real estate, lenders are pulling back accordingly. Debt origination volumes in the sector fell 52 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, according to a capital markets report from Newmark reported by the Commercial Observer. The advisory firm also found there are 32 percent fewer lenders than a year ago. Lenders have grown more selective in recent months, demanding lower loan-to-value ratios amid the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. No sector was immune from the narrowed activity. CMBS and collateralized loan obligations originations fell by 79 percent from last July, while debt fund loan originations are down 73 percent annually. Lending volume among banks, a typical source of loans for the real estate industry, also fell 48 percent year-over-year.
Zillow economists are calling for a housing market rally due to limited inventory despite rates. Back in February, Zillow's housing economists made a bold call that U.S. home prices had bottomed and would proceed to climb 0.5% over the next 12 months. In the months preceding that call, U.S. home prices as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index not only began to climb again but also reached a new all-time high. This uptick was propelled by the tailwind generated from tight inventory levels, which proved strong enough to overpower the headwind caused by the mortgage rate shock. That U.S. house price rebound coincided with Zillow repeatedly revising its home price forecast upward. Its latest revision, Zillow predicts that U.S. home prices will rise 6.5% between July 2023 and July 2024—up from the 6.3% call it made last month. For perspective, U.S. home prices as tracked by Case-Shiller have averaged a 5.5% annual increase since 1975.
It is so frustrating. There is a story out about a town in Europe which banned phones for kids. Interesting read.
So true- my son who has his Bar Mitzvah invited girls he never met before. They just snap and dm. We thought they were from his school!! 🙄