Italian Wine Tasting at My House
10-11-23
Opening Comments
My last note was entitled, “Comical Misunderstandings.” The most opened links were Congresswoman Cori Bush calls to stop funding Israel and a horrifying video showing Hamas parading naked battered woman through the streets. In my piece, I wrote about United Hatzalah, which is an organization of 7,000 volunteers to help those in need. The supplies they had have been depleted, given the carnage. I was having trouble with the website, which had been cyber-attacked and many readers tried donating to no avail. Here is the site if you want to contribute. It is a good cause which is saving lives. The death toll in Israel is over 1,200, which equates to over 43,000 on a population-adjusted basis to the US. I believe 22 Americans have been killed and more are unaccounted for at this time.
If you read the Rosen Report, you know I am not a fan of many politicians and call out both sides. I have not felt Biden has done a great job on many fronts and have written about it. However, when he or anyone else does a good job, I feel the need to show appreciation and give praise. Biden made a short speech on Tuesday, which was good and showed his unwavering support for Israel. “We stand with Israel. We will make sure it has what it needs to take care of its citizens and to defend itself.” He called out the terrorists. I would have liked to hear Iran mentioned, given the country’s support of terrorists. Thank you, Mr. President. I hope this is the beginning of a new chapter of leadership. The world needs it. Don’t hide in the basement now. Time to lead.
I am in NYC and ate at Rezdora last night and will be writing about it in the next week. In short, the place is amazing. Not sure where I will eat tonight but we know it is going to be good.
Markets
Bank Mistakes
Israel/Iran
NYC Congestion Pricing
South Florida Housing Market
Urban Doom Loop
Country Garden-China
Video of the Day-Interview with Max Greyserman PGA Tour Player
Max Greyserman is a member of 3i Members and just received his PGA Tour card on Sunday after he finished 9th on the Korn Ferry Tour standings for the season. The interview is about 37 minutes in length and is informative and fun. Max is looking for sponsors and can vouch that he is a great young man who has serious game. He hits the ball about a mile and is always smiling. If you are interested in sponsorship, reach out to me and I will connect you. We discussed a host of topics as outlined below. It was filmed a couple of weeks ago, just before he received his PGA Tour card. The only problem with the picture below is he is not wearing a Rosen Report hat. You will want to listen to the part about our big match. I was absolutely robbed. The picture contains the link to the full video and some highlights are below it with specific links. Congrats, Max!
Italian Wine Tasting at My House
An avid reader, Joe, sent me an email from his Italian wine tour and introduced me to winemakers and distributors. They happen to be in Florida, and they agreed to introduce me to a bunch of Italian wines at a tasting at my house. I asked ten wine-drinking friends to come over to learn about Italian wines and eat a homemade feast. I started with seared tuna and charcuterie. For the entree, I made pasta Bolognese, Roasted broccoli as the side, garlic bread and apple/raspberry pie, brownies, and cookies. Enrico brought a braised lamb shank that was delicious as well.
One thing is for sure, I enjoy entertaining and seeing friends. Drinking wine and learning more about Italian wines all the better. It was a good group of people and we had a great time. The wines were surprisingly solid and shockingly great value. When Luciano told us the prices, people could not believe it. I am not sure how many cases were purchased, but I am suggesting well over 20, as I bought 3 cases myself.
Enrico (winemaker) and Luciano (distributor) came over as part of the crew had gathered in the kitchen. Enrico Cerulli’s family has been part of the Abruzzi region for centuries. His family prospered from wool sheared from local sheep and delivered to Florence, where it was woven into world-class textiles. However, Enrico’s grandfather started a wine cooperative, and now Enrico controls the family’s 60 hectares where they grow Trebbiano, Pecorino, and Montepulciano grapes.
We started with a beautiful Rose’ from France.
This Pecorino went very well with the tuna.
I am a big fan of Mario Batali’s cooking and would often go to Babbo which was two blocks from my apartment in the village. I found his Bolognese recipe online and tweaked it a little to make it my own.
Unfortunately, I was running around so much between cooking, plating, drinking…I did not take the best food pictures. Below is my Bolognese with roasted broccoli. I used NO tomatoes in this recipe, only tomato paste. The result is a meatier sauce, which I prefer. Enrico brought over a delicious braised lamb and roasted potatoes as well.
I have had French wines from the 1960s and 70s for decades and waited too long. We opened up all of these and they were ALL BAD. Such a shame.
It was a great night where new connections were made. We ate great food and drank amazing wine, which I feel is some of the best value in Italy. Enrico and Luciano could not have been nicer and everyone had fun. Trust me, if you end up in Teramo, Italy, go visit Enrico and his family. I know I sure will. When my kids leave for college, I am going to go to cooking school in Italy and Enrico promised me a pasta-making lesson from a woman who has been doing it for decades. Yes, I make my own pasta, but struggle with ravioli and can always improve my pasta game. I am counting the days until I make the trip. Thank you to Joe for setting this up, Enrico and Luciano for bringing beautiful wine and my friends for coming over to help me drink it.
Quick Bites
Defense stocks rallied sharply Monday (see picture below). Oil rallied 5% on one point Monday over fears that the Middle East conflict will persist and lead to supply disruptions, but has since fallen back down to the $83/barrel range after hitting $87. Treasury bonds rallied sharply on Tuesday with the 2, 10 and 30 years all lower in yield by 10-12 bps. Wednesday had bond yields ticking down again. Stocks have held up better than expected and in part, the performance was due to the sharp decline in bond yields. On Wednesday, wholesale inflation data showed +.5% relative to .3% expectations. Despite the stronger than expected inflation data, stocks were up slightly. It was the fourth straight winning day for the major averages. Again, in light of what is transpiring in the Middle East, I would not have thought that to be the case.
Good Bloomberg article, “Bank of America’s Wrong-Way Rate Bet Hurts Moynihan’s Growth Pledge,” outlines bad investments in bonds that have been hurt due to the rate moves. I blame poor risk management by the banks AND the ineptitude of the Fed for calling inflation “Transitory.” BofA piled hundreds of billions of dollars into long-dated Treasuries and mortgage bonds at low rates that prevailed during the pandemic. The decision is still the subject of finger-pointing within the walls of the second-largest US bank, say people familiar with the matter, now that those holdings are showing huge paper losses and missing out on some of the best rates since 2007. BAC stock is -22% in 2023 and underperformed the prior year as well. JPM is +7% YTD for perspective despite sizeable Treasury exposure.
In my prior note, I wrote that I felt that Iran was behind the horrible attack on Israel and nothing I have read suggests otherwise. Multiple media outlets have written about Iran’s involvement, even suggesting months of preparation. Iranian officers — as well as reps from Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — refined tactical and strategic plans for the assault during several meetings in Beirut, according to the Journal, which cited senior members of both terrorist groups. A Hamas spokesman says, “Iran gave support for surprise attack,” this should not be a surprise to anyone. This is the WSJ article entitled, “Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks,” is yet another example of the connection. I have been asked about the $6bn the US released to Iran. I have read that the money remains in escrow and has not yet been released. In my opinion, this money will eventually be used to fund terrorism, it is what Iran does for a living and has been doing for decades. Money is fungible and if this feeds Iranians, the money that was doing that will partially fund terrorism. There are dozens of articles suggesting that the billions of military equipment and munitions the Biden Administration left behind in Afghanistan were used by Hamas. I have no idea if that is true but wrote extensively that I felt we could have destroyed all the equipment prior to leaving. Giving terrorists billions in planes, helicopters, tanks, guns, ammo, night vision goggles… never ends well. The US put special forces on alert to help locate American hostages.
If I were Xi Jinping, I would be salivating over Taiwan right now. I will state again, the Hamas attack on Israel was an epic failure on the part of the Israeli Government and military. Awful photos from AP here.
Good Bloomberg article entitled, “NYC’s $23 Congestion Charge Stirs Debate in Every Neighborhood.” To reduce bottlenecks and raise billions for much-needed public transit improvements, the state and city are putting a ring around everything south of 60th Street in Manhattan (excluding the highways) and charging vehicles that enter. The once-a-day toll could be as much as $23 during peak periods and $17 off-peak, with higher rates for trucks and those without E-ZPass. Vehicles that enter the central business district—from the southern tip of Central Park to the Battery—could be charged as soon as the second quarter of 2024. NYC is struggling with work from home and a migration out of NYC. Today, NYC sees 58% of Manhattan workers are at their desks and many retailers and offices are struggling. Do we really need more taxes now which will dissuade some from coming to Manhattan to work, shop, eat…? Here’s how New York City is planning to spend $15 billion raised from a new congestion pricing toll. As an aside, I took a short taxi ride last night and it was $8 to start and $25 in total to go 2.4 miles.
Other Headlines
1970s-style stagflation may be at risk of repeating itself, Deutsche Bank warns
Paul Tudor Jones says it's hard to like stocks given geopolitical risks, weak U.S. fiscal position
Exxon to Buy Pioneer for $60 Billion to Dominate Shale Oil
‘Overhyped’ generative AI will get a ‘cold shower’ in 2024, analysts predict
Samsung Electronics expects third quarter profit to plunge 78% but shares surge
PepsiCo beats Wall Street estimates, raises earnings outlook
Average interest rate on #credit cards is now close to 23%
I have written about the consumer extensively. $1 Trillion in credit card debt and rising delinquencies with far higher rates.
Ex-Trump Org. executive testifies that Eric Trump led him to inflate values of some properties
Hunter Biden took thousands from daughter's college fund for 'hookers and drugs'
Hunter Biden withdrew $20,000 from his daughter Maisy's college fund and spent it on "hookers and drugs" after being warned he had just 44 cents left in his bank account.
George Santos charged in a new indictment with stealing identies of donors
White House announces new efforts to crack down on ‘tens of billions’ in junk fees
Violent Crime Is Surging in D.C. This Year: ‘We Just Stood There and Screamed’
A 38% spike in homicides is upending life for residents and businesses
Is Michael Lewis Throwing Out His Reputation to Defend Sam Bankman-Fried
The reigning financial writer's latest book, “Going Infinite,” is an eyewitness account of the fall of FTX’s founder, who Lewis said is “misunderstood.”
Discovery of improperly stored bodies at 'green' funeral home was 'horrific,' sheriff says
A CEO who replaced 90% of his support staff with an AI chatbot says copy-paste jobs are gone
Consumers starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns
Given the cost of school today, I believe approximately 50% of students should attend 4-year institutions and more should go to vocational school.
Steve Scalise nominated as House speaker candidate by GOP lawmakers
He needs 217 votes to secure the speakership.
Thirty-one Harvard organizations blame Israel for Hamas attack: ‘Entirely responsible’
Ilhan Omar stokes outrage with plea against sending US weapons to back ‘war crime’ in Israel
Keith McNally doubles down on Israel remarks that sent shockwaves through NY restaurant biz
He has since apologized after severe backlash. McNally owns many hot restaurants and I do not plan on returning to any of them and hope other follow suit. He has the right to his opinion and views and I have the right to take my business elsewhere. I was invited to a birthday party next week at one of McNally’s restaurants. I let the host know about the comments and the party has been moved. THANK YOU. McNally, you want to hate? I wonder how much this commentary will cost you and how many Jews will no longer support your eateries. On the other end of the spectrum, the Investment Bank, Jeffries, donated $2mm to United Hatzalah to help get critical medical supplies to help those in need.
Josh Gad Says He Was ‘Shamed, Unfollowed and Threatened’ for Israel Attacks Sympathy
Schools Cut Honors Classes to Address Racial Equity. It Isn’t a Quick Fix.
I would not allow my children to go to a school with this policy. Why should we do anything other than harness a child’s interest and love of learning? Why would we push the smartest down and not try to lift those in need up? This line of thinking is destroying America. Stifling learning and creativity is a sure way to race to the bottom.
San Francisco paying $12,000 per month for homeless RVs while tech workers sleep in $700 ‘pods’
There is a one-minute video showing how it works. I love this invention.
I am a hypocrite. I know this is right, but cannot bring myself to do it. The #1 lesson is time is finite, don’t spend it regretting things.
Simple everyday activity could slash heart disease risk by 20%, study finds
I have written about “Mr. Irrelevant” previously as he was the last person taken in the draft and has done very well. I love to see young people being frugal and living well within their means. I did the same.
How often should you wash your jeans? The Levi’s CEO settles the debate
Real Estate
A lot of readers are asking me about my views on the world and more specifically, real estate. In general, today there is a supply imbalance (too little) which is keeping prices higher despite high rates and signs of consumer pressures. Higher rates are perversely helping in one respect in that many people will not sell their homes because the new mortgage rates are too punitive. I feel in certain markets we are seeing a good deal of new builds in condos (Miami and Palm Beach for example) and I believe those markets will see softening. I am of the view that we will likely see some corrections in second home markets as well as a general rule. Thirty year Mortgage rates hit 8% this week and that is going to hurt. This article is from the NY Post and is entitled, “How South Florida is winning the nation’s real estate war.” Make no mistake, the migration will continue for all the obvious reasons and I am of the belief that taxation is not the biggest one. Safety, homelessness, crime, quality of life, weather, mandates, anti-business sentiment, cost of living and taxes all play a role. Indeed, Florida is the No. 1 destination for professionals aged 25 to 36 earning at least $200,000, according to a recent report by financial advisory SmartAsset. Most crucially, high-earners arriving in Florida have outnumbered those departing by over three-to-one in recent years. And along with youth and jobs, the newcomers are coming with cash, snapping up homes in a state that doesn’t have nearly enough of them. A market that keeps on crowning nearly every list of superlatives. Of the 10 most overpriced housing markets in the country, for instance, seven are in Florida, according to a monthly analysis co-published by Prof. Johnson. That means Florida buyers are paying the highest premiums for their homes nationwide when compared to price averages over the past 27 years. On high-end single-family in Miami and choice Palm Beach, I just feel that supply is too limited, but feel the aspirational pricing is no longer achievable. In Boca, my community went from 71 homes for sale in 2017 down to 4 in December 2021 and now back up to 39 with many sitting on the market for months. If you have a brand new house in a good location which is nicely done on a good lot it sells quickly if priced fairly. Other stuff, not so much.
This good 6-minute video on the “Urban Doom Loop,” which I have written about extensively. The discussion in the video goes over reduced tax revenues and the resulting budget cuts forcing more people to leave and yet more cuts. The video goes over alternative uses for offices as well.
Another one bites the dust in China. Chinese developer Country Garden says it can’t meet debt payment deadlines after sales slump. The article outlines the situation, but Country Garden is far smaller than Evergrande. This WSJ article is entitled, “Evergrande Investors Warn of Uncontrollable Collapse.”
Rosen Report™ #621 ©Copyright 2023 Written By Eric Rosen
thanks. lots of fun
Love the wine dinner!!