Taki Omakase-Definitely Worth Lunch
5-19-24
Opening Comments
My last piece was entitled, “Expectations Management,” and the most opened links were about Ultra processed foods to avoid and the video of the day regarding Kenny Smith and the advice from his high school coach. I beg you to share the short Kenny Smith video with your children. Yes, it is about basketball, but insert anything in its place and it still works. A reader sent me this lovely note about the piece, “Power read through this pretty quickly but best piece I’ve read from you so far. Well Done!” I appreciate feedback, both positive and constructive.
I have written about the shortcomings of EVs (Cost, range, lack of charging stations, repair costs….), but here is another one. My wife’s TSLA has 21k miles and needed new tires at $600/each including balancing. My car has 38k miles and needs new tires soon. KIA Tires are cheaper and need to be replaced less frequently than an EV due to the excessive weight of the batteries on EVs. A number of auto manufacturers have cut EV lines or delayed production (Ford, GM, Mercedes, Apple, Volkswagen, Jaguar, Land Rover, Aston Martin…)
Markets
Druckenmiller Investing Advice
Meme Stock Update
Gen Z is Doomed
Schools Get Failing Grades
New Project in Bimini
Indian Creek Off-Market Sale for $65mm & $152mm Palm Beach
Funds Jumping Into R/E Loans
Video of the Day-Scottie Scheffler Arrested
I have written about Scheffler and his dominance in golf. What I have not written about is how great of a young man Scheffler is known to be. Those who know Scottie called news of his arrest, “Unbelievable." His reputation is impeccable so when the news came across that he was arrested for felony assault on a police officer as well as reckless driving, I was astonished. The area was already in chaos earlier in the morning when a worker was struck and killed by a shuttle bus outside the golf course grounds; Scheffler was not involved in the tragic incident. According to reports, later on, Scheffler drove on a median and did not heed an officer’s order to stop as he was trying to enter Valhalla Golf Club for the tournament on Friday morning. The report alleged that Scottie “refused to comply and accelerated forward, dragging [the officer] to the ground.” Scheffler said, “There was a big misunderstanding of what I thought I was being asked to do. I never intended to disregard any of the instructions. I’m hopeful to put this to the side and focus on golf today.” The picture is Scheffler being led in cuffs by police officers. Shocking. He was taken to jail, booked and photographed before returning to the golf course to make his tee time. Yes, despite the chaos, Scheffler shot a smooth -4 to put himself into contention and actually made a birdie on his first hole after the incident. Check out his 2nd rounds of major tournaments. His third round on Saturday was not good with a +2. Charges are now expected to be dropped.
Taki Omakase
I want to start with the fact that food choices in South Florida have improved dramatically in recent years. There are now 14 Michelin Star restaurants and 18 Bib Gourmand choices in Miami today. We have come a long way and the wealth that has relocated to South Florida has brought with it better food.
I have often complained about the lack of quality sushi in South Florida, especially given the irony of the fact that so much fresh fish is caught right in our backyard. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about my great Sunset Sushi lunch in Boca Raton for $50. I found it to be a great value with high-quality sushi and went back on Thursday for a great lunch. I had been hearing about Taki Omakase in Boca but had yet to try it. My friend, Rich, his daughter Ashley, my son, Jack, and I went for lunch last Saturday.
There are approximately a dozen seats at the sushi bar and three different chefs were there to prepare amazingly high quality and fresh sushi flown in from Japan. Each seating has a custom menu that changes daily. Our chef worked at Masa ($950/person Omakase in NYC) for 9 years. Yes, I have experienced it when it was $600/person and no, it was not worth it. He was from Japan and a fantastic sushi chef. There was a bit of a language barrier but I believe he said they get shipments from Japan almost daily.
The 13-course Omakase lunch at Taki is $80+tip and tax and I found it to be an incredible experience. We started with a salad of seaweed, salmon, mackerel, and Japanese pear with an amazing sweet citrus sauce. The Bluefin Tuna with cucumbers was slightly cooked and served at room temperature. It too was delicious. Of the 13 courses, the only thing I did not love was the Monkfish Liver, as a combination of the taste and consistency was just not for my palate.
The Eel Tempura blew me away and up until that point, it was my favorite part of the lunch. It was followed by Japanese Yellowtail sushi which was quite nice and flavorful. I was then hit with an Ocean Trout with caviar and that took over as my favorite piece. Ocean Trout looks similar to salmon but has a milder taste.
We were about halfway through the lunch and I was excitedly watching the chef deliberately make our next course that included Snapper and Sea Bream. I can tell you that this sushi experience is NYC quality.
Now onto the Toro courses. O-Toro is the name of the fattiest part of a tuna. Chu-Toro refers to parts of the tuna that can be found on both the back and stomach of the fish. While not as rich as O-Toro, Chu-Toro has a moderate fattiness and a can be enjoyed for a reasonable price, which makes it a very popular cut. Both were magnificent and the Toro courses tend to be my favorite.
The courses ended with a Toro Handroll and a combination of White and Plum Miso Soup. The Toro Handroll was surrounded by crunchy fresh Nori and was very good. While the combination of White and Plum Miso Soup was the best I ever tasted, but served at about 200 degrees. My tongue almost burned off and I had to wait a few minutes before I could properly appreciate it.
Overall, Taki Omakase is among the best sushi I have had in South Florida. They do a $200 dinner as well with 18-20 courses that I have yet to try. The lunch was perfect and came out to $107/person with tax and tip. However, they only serve lunch on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and do one seating. They have two dinner seating options at 6pm and 8pm. There is a 100% chance I return for a Taki Omakase lunch.
Quick Bites
The Dow closed Friday above the key 40,000 level for the first time in history after hitting that benchmark in the previous session. Stocks finished the week strong, with the Dow up 1.2% to notch its fifth straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 1.5% and 2.1% week to date, cinching their longest winning streak since February. This week’s ascent has helped propel the three indexes into positive territory for the second quarter despite a tough start. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now each up more than 11% in 2024, while the Dow has climbed more than 6% this year. Treasury yields fell slightly on the week with the 2-year at 4.83% (-4bps on week) and the 10-year at 4.42% (-8bps on week). This comes after several key inflation readings earlier in the week. April’s consumer price index came in 0.3% higher from the previous month and rose 3.4% from a year earlier. The monthly figure was just below forecasts, while the annual reading was in line with expectations. Bitcoin rallied 9% on the week to $67k with Bitcoin ETF inflows.
I have been crystal clear that I have a great deal of admiration for Stan Druckenmiller. I believe he is the best investor of our generation. I met him once and was like a child meeting a superhero. I am not sure what I said, but it may not have been audible given I was so excited. This 2016 story, “Lessons From A Trading Great: Stanley Druckenmiller, is not too long and any investor should read it. Since he is the best investor of our time. If I meet him again, I promise not to drool on myself despite his 30%+ returns for 30 years with no down years. I am sure Stan was not buying the Meme stocks last week. A few takeaways:
The Fed policy is key
Focus on the Future, not the past
Concentrated bets when you have conviction
This is the most important lesson he can teach you and it appears he learned it from Soros. When you have conviction and have limited downside, go BIG (British Pound trade.) “I’ve learned many things from [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” -Stanley Druckenmiller.
Avoid losses
According to Druck, to be a winning trader you need to be “decisive, open-minded, flexible and competitive.”
If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.
In my last note Wednesday a.m., I called out Meme Stocks Game Stop and AMC for the utter stupidity of the trading levels because some clown sent a Tweet. After hitting $65/share on Tuesday, May 14th, GME is now down to $22 (-66% from Tuesday’s high) after it filed to sell stock and 1st q sales dipped. A pretty obvious move (stock sale and price decline) and Wednesday’s note made my views crystal clear on both topics. The $6.8bn market cap means the stock is trading at 300 times EBITDA while the S&P average is 15 times. GME stock is still way too high.
Great article by Peter St. Onge entitled, “Gen Z is Doomed,” and was sent to me by one of my biggest contributors, Robert. The instant gratification society is fiscally irresponsible. A new study from Transunion finds that since 2013 average debt balances for those aged 22 to 24 has risen by 40%, including a 14% rise in auto loans and a 26% rise in credit card debt. For those with a mortgage -- which is a vanishingly low percent of Gen Z -- the average mortgage debt is up by nearly half to $215,000. This debt has mirrored the savings rate, which plunged during Covid from an already abysmal 6% pre-pandemic to just 3.2%. So Americans are saving 3.2 cents on the dollar earned. For perspective, in the early 90's it was three times that. Note Gen Z has the lowest income -- therefore the lowest debt capacity -- of any generation. Yet here they are sporting multiple cards and giving them a good workout. All this debt, of course, is now driving delinquency rates, with auto loan delinquencies rising by half, and credit card delinquencies doubling since 2022 to over 6% of credit cards in delinquency -- not just carrying balances, but in actual delinquency. In a recent Harris Poll, one out of three respondents said they've spent more than $1,000 on buy-now-pay-later, and 54% of users admitted spending more than they can afford. One in four reported that buy-now-pay-later is making them fall behind on other lines of credit -- note a credit card charges 24% interest per year, which is slightly lower than the mafia.
I have been critical of the US education system and the awful results in many cities/states. We need leadership, accountability, and a new plan. This article is concerning. Education is key. I went to public school and can tell you it was not always pretty. The public schools in New York doled out $29,284 per pupil in “current expenditures” in fiscal year 2022. In the mathematics test of the 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress, only 28% of eighth graders in New York state public schools scored proficient or better. Only 32% scored proficient or better in reading. In our capital city of Washington, D.C., which the NCES lists with the states, the public schools had $28,128 in “current expenditures” per pupil. That was more than any state except New York. So, how did the students do in D.C. public schools? Only 16% of eighth graders in the D.C. school system scored proficient or better in math. Only 22% scored proficient or better in reading. Utah spent $9,496 per pupil in its public schools in fiscal year 2022. That was less than any other state. Only 35% of eighth graders scored proficient or better in math, and only 36% scored proficient or better in reading. Money alone does not solve the problem. A better plan and accountability would. This article outlines charter school results that seem to handily beat the NYC traditional public school results.
Israel/Middle East
Biden administration begins lengthy process to approve new $1 billion arms deal for Israel
The potential new $1 billion arms sale would include the potential transfer of $700 million in tank ammunition, $500 million in tactical vehicles and $60 million in mortar rounds, one of the congressional sources confirmed.
Helicopter carrying Iran’s President Raisi suffers a ‘crash landing’
I hope Israel had something to do with it.
Hezbollah Launches First-Ever Airstrike On Israeli Territory
Jewish children savagely beaten by man in New York City attack
Shocking video shows Jewish teen pummeled by a classmate in alleged antisemitic attack (Canada)
Man shot dead by police after ‘trying to burn down synagogue’ (France)
‘Tsunami of hate’ flooding Kentucky and its colleges as antisemitism rates soar
Harvard Was Unresponsive to Antisemitism, House Committee Finds
Other Headlines
Consumer Spirits Are Down for a Reason
Though inflation has slowed, high prices remain a heavy burden for millions.
Fmr. Obama Econ. Adviser El-Erian: Regulation, Spending Helped Create Inflationary Environment
It will be “very hard” to get inflation from its current rate down to the 2% target and doing so will require trade-offs because we have moved from a deflationary environment to an inflationary one because we’ve shifted from “deregulation, liberalization, fiscal prudence” to “industrial policy, government intervention, and fiscal irresponsibility.” And because of a lack of globalization.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reveals insurer Chubb as confidential stock it’s been buying
Citadel Securities Revenue Reaches $2.3 Billion in First Quarter
Griffin delivers at every turn. Revenue was +68% vs last year.
Morgan Stanley discloses $270 million investment in Grayscale Bitcoin ETF: CNBC Crypto World
Dell surges 11% on optimism it has secured big AI server orders
Netflix ad-supported tier has 40mm monthly users, nearly double previous count
Reddit soars after announcing OpenAI deal that allows use of its data for training AI models
Under Armour is laying off workers as retailer says North America sales will plunge this year
Cisco reports better-than-expected results even as revenue suffers steepest drop in 15 years
Walmart surges to an all-time high as earnings beat on the high-income shopper, e-commerce gains
Meta slapped with child safety probe under sweeping EU tech law
Donald Trump’s lawyer fighting to stop former president from testifying in trial
Democrats Batter Bank Regulator Over F.D.I.C.’s ‘Toxic’ Workplace Culture
I missed this story about Martin Gruenberg, the leader of the FDIC. There is enough here to have a serious investigation, but I would fire him based on what I have read. I think in a previous note I wrote about the FDIC, but don’t recall if I called out Gruenberg specifically.
Great defense. “My wife is the criminal.”
NYC's Congestion Pricing Is Coming Soon. Here's What to Know
A good summary of congestion pricing taking effect June 30th. Just what NYC needs, more taxes. Let’s make NYC less affordable.
I far prefer this outcome to innocent people being hurt. Bragg, you’d better not arrest the intended victims.
I will be riding the NYC subway this summer with my head on a swivel.
Serial rapist illegal migrant attacked woman in ‘rape dungeon on wheels’
Wait, a wide open border allowing millions of illegals per year is a bad idea?
The system failed this family. I don’t understand how bullying is tolerated.
Video of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs beating then-girlfriend Cassie Ventura in hotel hallway in 2016 released
Pretty concerning evidence here. No wonder Diddy paid her off.
I believe the Biden Administration’s biggest mistake has been allowing millions of illegal immigrants into the country including many criminals.
Google and Harvard unveil most detailed ever map of human brain
Drug overdose deaths fell in 2023, 1st decrease in 5 years
Elon Musk says humans 'will be living in city on Mars' in next 30 years
Musk is clearly a genius. However, Mars is 140mm miles from earth. I am not convinced there will be a city there in 20 years.
You need to read what took place. Seemed like a good idea but drunk people did a bunch of inappropriate things to ruin it for everyone.
Abnormally hot summer even more likely in latest NOAA forecast: Here’s where
Saturday, Boca had a 108-degree heat index.
I have been fascinated by ancient Egypt since I was a child when I saw King Tut and the Field Museum in Chicago in 1977. This article suggests Amenhotep III was the richest person ever. My research suggests otherwise, but his wealth would be the equivalent of over $4 trillion today (top 10 territory). Not bad and makes Bezos and Musk look poor.
Real Estate
I have been to Bimini over 20 times and must tell you that it is pretty disgusting. However, that may change soon if this plan comes together. Wall Street South is getting its Hamptons, and it’s not West Palm Beach. Developer Rafael Reyes, owner of Rockwell Island Development Group, is building an oasis on the Bahamian island of Bimini just 48 nautical miles off the Florida coast to serve the increasing number of moneyed professionals that call Miami home. First, he’s building a series of dining and beach clubs, including an outpost of Bonito, which runs the renowned spot by the same name in St. Barts and its sister restaurant Betula in Aspen, Colorado. Next will come a series of 54 waterfront mansions with prices to list upward of $3.5 million, each with a pool, 90-foot-plus dock and garages custom-built to fit Moke jeeps; the first are to be completed in early 2025. A beach club by Richard Branson to cater to guests of his Virgin cruise line joins the party nearby. The pièce de résistance is due in 2026: a Banyan Tree resort with the country’s first overwater villas, priced from $3,000 per night, on a series of four man-made islands facing a giant lagoon. All this will be part of a new master-planned community called Rockwell Island. This is very interesting to me. I love to fish and the fishing is 100 times better in Bimini and South Florida.
Dutch magnetic heir Geert-Jan Bakker sold an off-market house in Indian Creek for $65mm. The home last sold in 2010 for $9.3mm. It does not have good exposure (does not have skyline views). Welcome to the most exclusive island in Miami where a bad house sells for $65mm. On this Island are Tom Brady, Jeff Bezos, Carl Icahn, Ivanka Trump, Norman Brahman, David Guetta, Eddie Lampert, Julio Iglesias…. In another deal, Tarpon Island in Palm Beach closed for $152mm. The 2.3-acre private island had 11 beds and 15 baths. I am told it sold to a hedge fund manager, but no idea who.
I am a big believer that chaos creates opportunity. When traditional lenders pull back, you can generate excess returns by stepping into the mix and dictating terms. This Reuters article is entitled, “Big-name funds pile into real estate debt as banks retreat.” Some of the world's largest investors are making deeper inroads into lending to commercial property, as they snap up market share from retreating banks and bet on an end to the sharp drops in real estate prices. U.S. fund firms PGIM, LaSalle and Nuveen, Canada's Brookfield and QuadReal, Britain's M&G Schroders and Aviva and France's AXA all told Reuters they plan to increase their credit exposure to property. Most are focusing on lending to logistics, data centers, multi-family rentals and the high-end office market. The office sector more broadly continues to struggle, deterring funds.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #683 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
