Elastic Pants Needed-Eating My Way Through NYC
6-12-24
Opening Comments
My last note was a review of Rao’s in NYC and received a lot of commentary. The most opened links were the most popular song the year you graduated high school and the five times it is ok not to tip. Tipping expectations are out of control frustrating from my perspective.
Jack started his first summer internship Monday and was fired up about learning more about the R/E business from market leaders at Churchill Real Estate. We will be heading out to Southampton Thursday night for the weekend. I will be going back to Florida (weather permitting) to do a Yellowfin Tuna run to Walker’s Cay the 19th-24th. It is 155 miles and we hope to also get some big snapper. Here are pictures from other similar trips.
Markets
Buffett on Public Speaking
EU Elections Sending a Message
2024 James Beard Award Winners
Housing Affordability
Rising Cost of Home Ownership
Restaurants-The New R/E Darling
Another Distressed Office Sale
Picture of the Day-Funny Story About a Hole in the Floor
A heavy pan fell and cracked a porcelain tile on my kitchen floor recently. I reached out to my tile guy approximately 20 times to no avail. I asked my friend, (former friend when you hear this story), Billy, for help. In his infinite wisdom, he put my name, # and address on something called Angie’s List, seeking services for tile repair, but did it without telling me. My phone blew up with contractors and I had no idea how they all got my information. I kept telling them I did not know why they were calling me. I was getting frustrated and then Billy told me I might get a call because he gave my information out. Clearly, Angie’s List is effective based on the volume of calls I received in 72 hours. However, my tile guy came over yesterday and fixed the hole. Ironically, it was because Billy sent him over, so we are now friends again. The project is not done yet, but looks good.
Elastic Pants Needed-Eating Through NYC
The first step is admitting you have a problem. My problem is that I LOVE FOOD. If there were no consequences for my actions, I would eat 10,000 calories a day. I dream about food and making great meals. In NYC, there’s no need to cook, as you can find plenty of amazing places to eat, from cheap to uber pricey. In this note, I will outline a disgusting amount of food consumption in short order. Ladies and gentleman, I am a professional. Do not try this at home.
Everything in the outline below was eaten between Tuesday evening and Sunday evening. So much to review; I will keep them shorter:
Tuesday night, I ate at Noz Market. The real Sushi Noz is a $550/person Omakase restaurant with two Michelin stars. The Noz Market offers sit down Omakase for for $80 or $155 per person, or a stand up handroll bar. I tried the latter and recommend it. I started with the best thing on the standup menu, Toro Taku for $22. The sushi chef makes it right in front of you and I really enjoyed the toro handroll and should have ordered a second one. I was not blown away by the tuna or the salmon handrolls, but also liked the spicy rock shrimp and the yellowtail scallion. The fish was fresh and found an ample amount of protein in each bite. I ate 5 handrolls for $84. I will definitely go back and feel in general, the Upper East side is a culinary wasteland so this is a welcome edition. Overall B+
On Wednesday, I had lunch at Fish Cheeks in Noho with a new friend, Jonathan. It is a casual Thai restaurant with a good vibe and outdoor seating. The food was quite good and the presentation was amazing. We started with the highly recommended Zabb Wings with chili, lime and fried makrut lime leaf. They had quite a kick, but I have a low spice tolerance. I loved them. The Crispy Rice Salad & Pork with mint, chili, lime, ginger and peanuts had more of a kick and was very good. You wrap the food in lettuce and, although cumbersome to eat, it was amazing. For entrees, we ordered the steamed branzino with Thai herbs which was presented beautifully on top of a hot plate. The sauce-chili, lime, cilantro, and culantro in a cilantro lime broth-stole the show. Lastly, we ordered my new nemesis, Prawn Karee, which I would never order again. The prawns were on a lovely bed of soft scrambled egg, scallion, onion, micro celery and curry powder; however, the prawns were not peeled. I made a mess of my BRAND NEW Chervo golf shirt and am livid. Although the prawns tasted good, I felt they were overcooked and not worth the work. Overall, I enjoyed Fish Cheeks, and will go back. Although Thai food tends to be less expensive, this was fully priced, but worth it other than the prawn disaster. Overall A-
As I was leaving Fish Cheeks, I walked by Levain Bakery, a place I struggle to pass up. The decadent cookies are more like hockey pucks. They are dense and packed with amazing flavor. These cookies are top five in NYC from my perspective. My favorite flavor is the Dark Chocolate Peanut Butter Chip, but the Two Chocolate Chip is a close second. They cost over $5/each but are oh so good. Overall A
Wednesday evening, I had some appetizers at Fogo de Chao in Midtown. This is not a place I recommend but we went because it was able to accommodate 40 people for drinks and some bites. The food is fine, nothing more, and with all the better options in NYC, I would not go back. The service was very good and the waitstaff was friendly. Overall B-/C+
In my last note, I reviewed Rao’s which can be found here.
JG Melon is a 52 year old Upper East Side institution that requires a decent wait, but offers solid burgers for $13. I enjoy sitting outside and people watching as well as the solid value and good waffle fries. It is not the highest quality meat, but a good option especially given the choices in that neighborhood. However, the vinegar in my salad was so bitter that I was choking when I tried to eat it. Put your name down and walk around, as you will rarely just walk right in. Cash only. Overall B+
Milos was my favorite Greek restaurant in the city for over a decade. Post the Global Financial Crisis, they started a pre-fixe lunch for under $20 that was three courses and the best value in the city. Today, the lunch is $45 and still a value. You walk up to the “market” where they have a beautiful display of whole fish with prices by the pound, and pick your dinner. I measure Greek restaurants by Tzatziki and, although it was good, it was not elite. I felt there was not enough flavor outside of the yogurt, but the warm pita hit the spot. My appetizer was four pieces of sashimi (Magiatiko, Tuna, Salmon, Loup de Mer) and they were good, not amazing. There is much better sushi in NYC. The entree was calamari with squid ink risotto. The calamari was solid but the risotto was undercooked. Also of note, the portion control police were in full effect (see entree picture). For dessert, I had the chocolate mousse cake with black cherry. It was nothing special. Milos is solid, no longer great, and fully priced. If you go, go for the pre fixe lunch, not the over-priced dinner. The presentation of the meal was top notch, but I do feel overall the restaurant was not the same caliber it once was. Overall B. For years it was a solid “A.”
Saturday for lunch, I took Charlie, one of the young people I mentor, out to lunch. We went to Pizza Loves Emily in the West Village. I had heard they had the “Best Burger in the City.” It was very good, but not the best. I ordered the Emmy Double Stack Burger, which was a succulent delight, albeit very heavy, that weighed on me all day. The pretzel bun, sautéed onions and tender burgers, made for a memorable meal, but trust me, you feel the impact of this beast for a while. The waffle fries were solid as well. I got the sauce on the side. They do not offer mustard which threw me for a loop. How can anyone eat a hamburger without mustard? Outside seating is ideal, but hard to come by at this West Village pizza and burger joint. Maybe split the burger and order a small pizza and split that too. The burger held me down for days. Overall A- for the burger.
Sette Mezzo is an Upper East Side (UES) staple in what is generally a culinary wasteland and I ate there Saturday evening. The food is fully priced, but consistently good and the menu gives everyone options from pasta to fish to meat choices. I started with broiled calamari which was cooked nicely and tasted amazing. There was light breading on it. I had an Orata with caper berries (large capers) that was very good and a light, white, flaky fish. In the culinary barren food choices of the UES, I do recommend Sette. Just don’t forget it’s, cash only. I heard the long-time GM left and the restaurant lost some customers recently. I went on a Saturday night in June and it was slow. I am not sure if it was seasonal or the GM transition. Overall A-
On Sunday, I went for a long walk and saw a line outside a bagel place. I decided if there is a line, it is worth a shot. The Brooklyn Bagel and Coffee Company in the Village runs a tight ship and the line moved swiftly. I ordered a lightly toasted everything bagel with nova and cream cheese. The sandwich was HUGE. I would argue too much bread and too much cream cheese. However, Monday, someone brought me a half of a cinnamon raisin bagel from the same place and it was better. No need for an entire bagel when they are bigger than my head. Overall-B
The original La Esquina on Kenmare has always been a fun experience with good enough food. The walk downstairs and through the kitchen to get to the hip and cool basement eatery is always memorable. However, they now have small taco shops around the city and the food is good at those too. I went to the one on 73rd and 2nd again. The tacos do not disappoint, but the service was AWFUL. It took 45 minutes to bring me few tacos. If you go to the original, enjoy it. Seems like the offshoots are not worth the wait. Overall B+
Quick Bites
Positive news on the latest CPI report that showed prices were flat in May, but +3.3% over a year ago. These numbers are .1% better than expectations. From Peter Boockvar, “Bottom line, the goods disinflation continues on while services inflation does as well.” Stocks rallied on the news and the S&P hit a record (+13.5% YTD) but finished well off the highs, while bond yields fell sharply. S&P closed about 5,400 for the 1st time. The 2-year Treasury yield fell as much as 17bps but ended up -6bps to 4.77%, while the 10-year yield fell 7bps to 4.33%. The initial euphoria about the CPI print was dampened as Powell did not give the decisive clarity investor wanted to hear. The odds of a 2nd rate cut in 2024 jumped from 38% pre-CPI data to a high of 88% only to fall back to 60% after the Fed announcement and commentary. The so-called “dot plot,” which indicates how 19 FOMC members, both voters and nonvoters, showed four officials in favor of no cuts this year, while seven members projected one reduction. The remaining eight officials forecast two rate cuts for 2024. Apple shares jumped 10% (2 days) (all-time high), as the company announced its long awaited push into 1I which will result in users needing to upgrade phones. The VIX is down to 11.9, nearing the lows from the last 5 years.
I am a firm believer that public speaking skills are critical to success. This CNBC article outlines Warren Buffett’s story. Apparently, he was incredibly frightened about public speaking and the thought of it made him, “physically ill.” After graduating from Columbia Business School in 1951, Buffett became determined to overcome his fear. He enrolled in a $100 public speaking course at Dale Carnegie Training, an institute named for the influential speaker and author of “How to Win Friends and Influence People.” “The class certainly had the biggest impact in terms of my subsequent success,” said Buffett. The article goes into some detail on public speaking. I can tell you from experience I was AWFUL at public speaking early in my career and turned it into a core competency through hours of practice. I am now paid to moderate panels, do keynote speeches, webinars and podcasts across the country. Had you told me this was in the realm of possibility 35 years ago, I would have thought you were crazy. With deliberate practice and a desire to improve, you can turn a weakness into a strength. The majority of people rank fear of public speaking as their #1 fear (75% according to the National Institutes of Mental Health).
Far-right gains in the EU election deal stunning defeats to France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz Anti-immigration sentiment is leading the shift to the right in many countries. Also contributing are climate policies which are impacting the cost of living and starting to receive pushback. Overall, across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained the dominant forces. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature. Macron’s pro-business Renew group also lost big. This is CNBC’s take on the recent elections. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the country’s parliament, the National Assembly, and called a snap election after an exit poll showed his Renaissance party is set to be trounced by the far-right opposition in European parliamentary elections on Sunday. The first round will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7, Macron said. Also of note, French government bond yields rose to November highs after Macron’s announcements. Major French banks, BNP and Soc Gen stocks have tumbled and are -7% and 10% respectively over the past 5 days. This Telegraph article outlines younger voters in Europe moving to the right. Marie Le Pen’s protegee is a 28-year old named Jordan Bardella who is attracting young voters. Is the EU anti-immigration sentiment a foreshadowing for the upcoming US elections? My belief is the Biden Administration’s handling of the border has been his most glaring mistake and many voters believe illegal immigration and border security are the top issue. A CBS/You Gov poll showed that 62% of registered voters support a government program that would deport all migrants living in the U.S. illegally.
This CNN article outlines the 2024 James Beard award winners for chefs and restaurants for 2024. The Oscars of the food world — the James Beard Awards — were handed out Monday night to many chefs and restaurants reflecting cultures and regions that have long been overlooked when honoring culinary achievement in the United States. At Dakar NOLA, winner of Best New Restaurant, Chef Serigne Mbaye blends his West African roots with the ingredients of New Orleans on a modern Senegalese tasting menu. The Outstanding Restaurant winner, Langbaan in Portland, Oregon, transforms classic Thai food with Pacific Northwest ingredients on a five-course tasting menu. The 2024 finalists and winners are listed but there are too many to outline here. Check out the link for those foodies looking for the best of the best. When you travel, bring the list and you will uncover some gems, I am sure.
Israel/Middle East
Gaza journalist who wrote for Al Jazeera was holding 3 hostages in home with family, Israel says
Dramatic first-person video shows elite Israeli unit rescuing hostages in Gaza
Hamas is a terrorist organization that needs to be obliterated.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar believes Palestinian deaths are ‘necessary sacrifices’
Yet millions of people support Hamas over Israel.
Israel vows to press on in Gaza after UN Security Council approves ceasefire proposal
Other Headlines
Gold is getting harder to find as miners struggle to excavate more, World Gold Council says
Colorado’s Weed Market Is Coming Down Hard and It’s Making Other States Nervous
In 2020, the market soared to $2.2 billion. But just three years later, sales had plummeted to $1.5 billion, leading to layoffs, closures and downsizing. A glut of supply, coupled with neighboring states legalizing weed, has hit the Colorado market.
Of the minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey has identified as critical to the U.S. economy and national security, the U.S. was 100% reliant on imports for 12 of them. The US is reliant on China for 5 of the 12.
Apple Intelligence on your iPhone probably requires an upgrade
Affirm buy now, pay later loans will be embedded into Apple Pay later this year
Just what the world needs, an easier way for the consumer to buy things they cannot afford. The only path to financial stability is fiscal responsibility, saving and compounding your wealth.
Elon Musk threatens to ban Apple devices from his companies over OpenAI partnership
CrowdStrike rallies to record on cybersecurity company’s inclusion in S&P 500
GameStop shares slide 12% following Friday’s 40% sell-off
After hitting $65/share last week, the crap company stock was back down to $24 Monday. I have written extensively on these meme stocks and the lack of fundamentals. They can be elevated for a bit due to stupidity, but the valuations just don’t add up. The market cap was $20bn and is now $10bn.
Toyota lost over $15 billion in market value last week after being caught falsifying tests
GM trims 2024 EV sales forecast amid slower-than-expected demand
Nuclear power is ‘overblown’ as an energy source for data centers, power company CEO says
More than half of Biden supporters say main reason for backing is to oppose Trump
54% of those backing Biden are doing it primarily as a vote against Trump. In the USA, we have an uncanny ability to produce such flawed candidates that we end up voting against someone rather than for someone.
Top Dem strategist James Carville says Biden should not have run for re-election
“I thought that President Biden should not run for re-election,” the political guru said. “But he did — it’s him and Trump — and that’s where I am.”
Pollster Nate Silver warned Monday that President Biden’s approval ratings are so low, it may be time for him to reconsider seeking re-election in November. I am 100% in agreement with the growing drumbeat that Biden should not be running.
There was a $12mm fundraiser for Trump in Silicon Valley.
Hunter Biden trial live updates: Hunter Biden guilty on all charges in historic gun case
President Joe Biden's son faces up to 25 years in prison for three charges − lying on a federal screening form about his drug use, lying to a gun dealer and possessing the gun − although first-time, nonviolent offenders typically get shorter sentences.
Chicago progressive mayor spent more than 30k in campaign funds on hair and makeup in one year
The CNN article is quite concerning and scary about the gang and what they do. Human trafficking, forced prostitution, killing cops in NYC, kidnapping and murder of a Venezuelan cop…Maybe we need some stronger borders?
Robber takes 3 hostages in NYC, holds gun to victim’s head during 2-hour standoff with cops
Millionaire investment banker slugs woman on NYC street during Brooklyn Pride, shocking video shows
The Moelis & Company banker broke a woman’s nose. Hope he goes to jail.
Police arrest 11-year-old after month-long crime spree that included car thefts and shootings
San Francisco opens first ‘free food market’ where shoppers can leave without paying
NY’s insane climate law is getting costlier and costlier to ratepayers
Double-digit electric and gas rate hikes-the highest increases the utility has proposed in some 35 years.
Car insurance companies secretly collecting driver data with the help of phone apps
The subscription-based apps Life360, MyRadar and Gas Buddy are providing user data to an Allstate-owned company, Arity, which computes the numbers to create a “driving score” that takes into account any risky behavior behind the wheel, such as distracted driving, speeding and sudden braking. Remember, my sponsor, Lang Insurance is licensed in all 50 states and has helped dozens of Rosen Report readers improve coverages and save money. Call Kevin at (866) 964-4434.
Chicago public school spending is up 97% since 2012. Grades are down 60-80%.
So many major cities in the U.S. are failing our children despite throwing big money at the education problem. We need to see better results. The ramifications of an uneducated population are dire.
Plant-based ultraprocessed foods linked to heart disease, early death, study says
What science says about blue-light blocking glasses and eye exercises
The study is not sold on blue-light blocking glasses.
My readers know I am of the belief that we are not alone despite the fact that I have never seen a UFO or an alien. With the new information in the article, I might be living with aliens. If you are an alien, announce yourself. This includes my wife and children. I always suspected my wife and I were from different planets at times, and this just might be the proof I was looking for. Sadly, this article is a little bonkers and not giving me confidence.
Real Estate
I am not sure I am 100% in agreement with the thoughts outlined in this link, but fear it is directionally correct. A 7% mortgage rate in 2024 is like a 15% rate in 1982. When accounting for U.S. home prices, home insurance, incomes, property taxes, and a 10% down payment, housing affordability in 2024 is similar to 1982 (when rates floated between 13%-17%).
In a similar vein to the last bullet, this Bloomberg article outlines rising costs of homeownership in the US since the pandemic. The cost of owning a home in the US has increased 26% since 2020, as expenses including taxes, insurance and utilities all soared during a period of high inflation across the economy. The average annual outlay for owning and maintaining a typical single-family home — not including mortgage payments — totaled $18,118 in March, the personal finance website Bankrate found. That works out to $1,510 a month more than four years earlier, when pandemic lockdowns began. The calculation is based on Redfin’s March median sales price of $436,291.
I was surprised by the data in this WSJ article about the rise of the restaurant in terms of being a real estate darling. Property owners have long seen restaurants as risky tenants with a high rate of failure. Now, with Americans dining out more than ever, the restaurant business is emerging as the hottest corner of retail real estate. Food services accounted for more than 19% of all retail leases last year, rising in recent years to the highest proportion for any category since data firm CoStar Group began tracking the statistic in 2007. It is a far cry from the depths of the pandemic, when tens of thousands of restaurants permanently closed. Four years later, robust restaurant leasing has helped power the retail-real-estate sector to its strongest position in years. The average household spent nearly 53% of its food budget on food away from home last year, a record-high proportion and up 10 percentage points from 2003, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service. Total restaurant sales have never been higher. They are on track to top $1.1 trillion this year, a 5.4% increase from 2023’s record-high level, according to the National Restaurant Association, an industry group.
A New York City office building owned by a Related Cos. affiliate is set to be sold at a steep discount. Empire Capital Holdings and Namdar Realty Group agreed to purchase the property at 321 W. 44th St. for less than $50 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing private information. That’d be a roughly 67% discount from the nearly $153 million that Related Fund Management paid for it in 2018. How much money will regional banks and R/E funds lose over the next 36 months?
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #690 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
