25,834 Steps in One Day-NYC
6/16/24
Opening Comments
My last note was about eating my way through NYC and needing elastic pants. I have so many more NYC reviews, I do not know where to begin. The most opened links were about when not to tip and the millionaire banker who slugged a woman breaking her nose.
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads who deserve to be recognized for all they do.
As the Rosen Report grows, I continue to be amazed at the response from my loyal readers. I am humbled that so many people enjoy my shenanigans and appreciate by bi-weekly rants. I meet people constantly in the streets of NYC, on airplanes, busses, subways and anywhere else who recognize me or my Rosen Report hat and introduce themselves. I met friends at Il Mulino on 60th Street Wednesday night and arrived a little early. I sat down at the bar for a glass of wine and the bartender said, “a fan wants to buy you a drink.” Initially, I presumed one of my friends meeting me put the bartender up to it as a joke. It turns out, I have a BRILLIANT Wall Street reader named Mike who recognized me and bought me a glass of wine. I was thrilled and introduced myself to him and his friend. We had a nice chat and I truly appreciated his kind act and loved hearing his positive comments on the newsletter. By the way, full review coming, but I do feel Il Mulino is not as special as it once was. Still solid but fell a notch in my mind.
We drove out to the Hamptons on Thursday leaving at 3:30 pm as my son, Jack, had to work. Sounds funny that my soon to be senior in high school son had to work. Leaving on a Thursday afternoon in the summer is ill advised. It took 3:45 minutes to get to Southampton. I do not miss shuttling back and forth. Leaving Sunday afternoon on the Jitney. The Hamptons are beautiful, but too crowded. Friday, I ran some errands and the traffic was backed up for miles. Years ago, my kids played at Mecox Beach catching crabs for hours a day. Today, this story suggests it is one of the worst beaches for fecal matter in the nation.
In the Hamptons on Saturday, I had a 9am padel game for 1:15 and another one at 3pm for 1:45 for a total of 3 hours. It was so much fun and I played with a bunch of Rosen Report readers. Of note, to play with an instructor indoors for 1.5 hours in Florida costs $240 including court time despite not being a member. To play outside in the Hamptons, you need to be a member of the facility and pay $450 just for the pro. Anyone who tells you Florida is more expensive than NY is delusional. I played in the am at Brisas (3 padel courts) and in the afternoon at the Racket Lounge (4 padel, 4 pickle and a bunch of tennis courts) in Southampton. Both are very nice.
Upcoming Reviews include-Il Mulino, Fuku Omakase, Au Za atar Lebanese
Markets
Private Equity Impacting Pensions
Golfing Improves Career Options
EU on the Brink?
Dengue Fever
Crazy NYC and Hamptons Housing Prices from 50 Years Ago
Housing Foreclosures
Austin, TX Residential Market Cooling
Pictures of the Day-South Florida Decimated with Rain
I have often written about how miserable South Florida is in the summertime. It is hot, humid, raining, hurricanes… Parts of South Florida got up to 20’ of rain in 24 hours creating a “State of Emergency” last week. Friends told my wife that people were stuck at the Aventura Mall in such heavy rain that it required a hotel stay. Cars were underwater. With the warmer ocean temperatures, I am worried about a rough hurricane season. Crazy pictures of the Florida floods in this AP link.
25,834 Steps in NYC
On Sunday, June 9th, I was in NYC staying on the Upper East Side. It was the Puerto Rican Day Parade and I decided to escape the mayhem and head downtown on the subway at 9am before things got hectic. I got off at the Union Square stop to check out the farmer’s market and then just walked and walked. It was shocking to see the prices at the farmer’s market. Things were so expensive. I walked to the West Village and took my Brooklyn Bagel and ate in the park across from Magnolia Bakery. I sat in the sun despite a few homeless people nearby.
I weaved in and out of the streets of the West Village, then off to Soho and Noho and back to Union Square and up to Madison Square Park. I was wearing the world-famous Rosen Report hat and I was spotted a half-dozen times by readers who recognized me. I only knew a couple of them. Walking NYC on a beautiful summer day brought back some nice memories. In total, I took 25,834 steps that day for a total of 12 miles over 4 hours. I had never tracked my steps before but would bet I have not walked 25,000 steps in any given month in Boca Raton, Florida. In light of my non-stop eating in NYC, I burned off some calories. It was a great day and I now have a goal to beat my step count from Saturday. I wish I had read this article prior to my 12 mile walk. It outlines that walking with an uneven cadence in non-uniform strides can improve caloric burn.
When I was in the Village, just north of Soho, I saw two large lines and walked over to understand what was happening. There are two bagel places called “Popup Bagels” and “Leon’s Bagels” just feet part and next to Carbone on Thompson. My ADHD is too strong to wait in line for a bagel but am told Popup is amazing and a must try. Only in NYC. At Popup, it is a rip and dip method meaning you do not smear your cream cheese on the bagel but rip a piece off and dip it. I hear Popup Bagels are solid.
However, no Rosen Report is complete when writing about NYC without a few complaints and suggestions. Yes, I saw far too many homeless people, which is disappointing and sad. The streets are filthy (see below). However, my biggest pet peeve is the idiot dog owners who refuse to clean up the dog crap. When you walk over 25,000 steps, you are avoiding land mines, I mean dog crap, at every turn. I watched pet owners allow their dogs to relieve themselves and just walk away without cleaning it up. Where is human decency? Mayor Adams, I propose that any dog owner who does not clean up after their pet will lose their dog to the pound after the 2nd offense. The first offense should be a $500 fine. I want these people shamed and neighbors turning them in via video. Seriously, it is disgusting. NYC has so much promise. Let’s fix the small stuff.
Quick Bites
Wholesale prices fell .2% according to the report on Friday which sent Treasury yields lower initially but they ended the day slightly higher in yield. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week higher by about 1.6% and 3.2%, respectively. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed that consumer sentiment declined to 65.6 in June, down from 69.1 in May. This reading also came below the 71.5 Dow Jones estimate. Oil prices snapped a 3-week losing streak due to a tighter market around summer driving fuel demand.
I have touched on the topic of private equity recently, but this WSJ article entitled, “Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out,” goes into more detail. U.S. companies and state and local governments manage around $5 trillion in pension money. Large public pension funds have an average 14% of their assets in private equity, while large corporate pensions have almost 13% in private equity and other illiquid assets such as private loans and infrastructure, according to data from Boston College and JPMorgan Chase. Pensions, sovereign-wealth funds, university endowments and other institutions often promise their money to private-equity managers for a decade or so. Over that time, the managers draw down the cash and use it to buy companies, then overhaul and sell them. Those sales and the resulting cash distributions to investors have slowed markedly as high interest rates have made buying and owning companies more complicated and expensive. Unable to sell without denting returns, private-equity managers are keeping workers’ retirement savings locked up for longer—sometimes past the promised maturity date. The article outlines how more pensions are selling their stakes at discounts to raise cash, and the article suggests secondary market buyers paid an average of 85% of the market value in 2023.
I do believe golf helped my career. If you can play golf, it opens doors especially if you are a woman, so I pushed my daughter to learn golf. Now, both my kids can play, and my daughter even won a club championship last year. This WSJ article is entitled, “A Killer Golf Swing Is a Hot Job Skill Now.” The article suggests hybrid works allows more “schmoozing” clients on the course. I have literally spent thousands of hours on golf courses for business and believe that time allows you to get to know people very well. I have had crazy client stories on golf courses and those experiences solidify relationships. The article suggests 531 million rounds were played last year by Americans, double the 2019 levels.
I have written about the shift to the Right in Europe across many countries (France, Germany, Netherlands, Hungary, Italy Austria, Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Sweden, UK and others). This Telegraph article is entitled, “France is on the brink of all-out civil conflict.” The consistent themes driving the move to the Right have been immigration, inflation, and the rise of eco-friendly rules hurting businesses and driving up costs for consumers. This weekend, 500k Left-Wing supporters marched in France’s cities shouting anti-Facist slogans to oppose Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. The uncertainty in France has the yield on French debt over German debt to be the hgihest of the past 35 years (2nd graph). I do not reall a time in recent history where we have seen more geo-political risk issues (Middle East, Europe, Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, US elections and growing divide, debt levels…). The first French vote is on June 30 with the runoff July 7th. The issues are eerily similar by country and the move so far Left is facing extreme pushback. The growing debt levels in countries are weighing heavily on them as well. The rest of 2024 should be interesting, I just feel the markets are under appreciating the risks.
Four years ago, I was hospitalized for Dengue Fever. In my life, I have never been so sick. I had a fever of 104, chills, and excruciating pain. I lost 20 pounds in a little over two weeks. My sister and I got bit by mosquitos while in my backyard in Boca Raton. Most cases in Florida are due to international travel, but that was not the case with us. Florida’s Department of Health has reported 164 cases of dengue since the beginning of the year, with all but six linked to international travel. The CDC shows Miami-Dade as the US hot spot for dengue. The Pan American Health Organization has recorded 3,274 deaths and 7.6 million cases of dengue in Latin America and the Caribbean this year. That’s more cases than it reported in all of 2022 and 2023 combined. Dengue is spreading in Europe due to Tiger Mosquitos.
Israel/Middle East
IDF uses medieval siege weapon to fling fireballs at Lebanon
Watch this in NYC Subway-”Raise your hands if you are a Zionist.”
Nothing like feeling safe in NYC. They should be in jail for hate crimes. How come this is not so prevalent in Texas and Florida?
Could you imagine being a Jew and going undercover into a region that hates you and wants you and your country blown to bits? I would last somewhere between 1 minute and 7 minutes undercover in such conditions.
Kidnapped Nova festival guard revealed new details of Hamas torture
During the hottest time of the day, they would wrap hostages in blankets to dehydrate them. Lots of mental and physical abuse. I hope Israel catches every last Hamas terrorist and kills them.
Mother of rescued Hamas hostage says son described 'strange rules' while in captivity
Other Headlines
At the same time, only 10% of the S&P 500 firms and 20% of mid-caps are unprofitable.
French stocks take beating, risk premium rises under specter of possible far-right victory
The CAC 40 was -6% on the week and French banks were down more.
“Oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel in 2025 as world faces ‘substantial surplus,’ Citi says.
Saudi Arabia Ditches U.S. Dollar, Bringing End to America’s Global Dominance
Saudi Arabia will not renew its 50 Year ‘Petro-Dollar’ Agreement with the United States as it moves toward a BRICS Alliance, essentially ending the West and U.S. dollar dominance. This is on Biden in my opinion.
Adobe shares soar 17% on better-than-expected results
It also discussed AI.
Musk says Tesla shareholders voting in favor of his $56 bln pay package
I am not convinced Musk is close to right here but do believe we will see a proliferation of robots over the next 10 years. I do not know if it is Figure AI, Tesla or someone else who wins the robot race but I do believe millions of jobs will be replaced. The economics of a robot working 23 hours a day with no sick days, vacation days, training, couch time, lunch, healthcare costs, 401k matching… will make so many companies more efficient.
Larry Ellison is $19 billion richer after Oracle shares rally the most since 2021
Chinese EV stocks surge after EU slaps up to 38% additional import tariffs
Roaring Kitty’s GameStop stake grows to 9 million shares after selling his big options position
I truly hope this stock falls back to its fundamental value. The stock is now $29/share from $66/share last week and now has a $10bn market cap.
Tuttle ETF to Actively Track Congressional Investments
Brilliant. You can legally trade on inside information like the “pros.” These politicians are DISGUSTING. They sit on committees, get inside info and trade on it with no consequences. You do it and go to jail.
Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports
Supreme Court rejects bid to restrict access to abortion pill
Record Share of U.S. Electorate Is Pro-Choice and Voting on It
CEOs at Trump meeting: Ex-president ‘meandering’ and ‘doesn’t know what he’s talking about’
Biden’s condition shocks allies at G7 summit, with one saying it’s ‘worst he has ever been’
86% of voters — including 73% of Democrats — believe Biden is too old to finish a second term.
The dread election: Share of "double haters" hits historic high
"I grew up here. I'm a woman. I'm a gay woman. My mom's a Jew. My dad's an Arab. I have a Black kid. And believe it or not, my son is half Latin, even though he doesn't look like it," Michaels told host Sage Steele. "I hold a million cards in your game of woke victimology poker. And when I leave California, maybe you've lost your f---ing mind. Just maybe! Like when you have me running from home, maybe it's gone way too far." California has become uninhabitable on so many fronts. You know you are in trouble when Jillian Michaels is complaining.
Goldie Hawn says 'LA is terrible' after becoming victim to multiple home break-ins in 4-month span
New photos reveal mega-prison in El Salvador built to hold 40K inmates — with no prisoner ever freed
Call me crazy. These tactics seem to be effective. Maybe NYC, Chicago, LA, San Fran, DC, St, Louis, New Orleans… can learn something.
I continue to believe that the open border is Biden’s biggest mistake of many. We cannot handle the volume and too many criminals, gang members and bad actors are getting into the USA unchecked. This administration’s border polciy is AWFUL. How many innocent civilans will die before we do something?
Two people killed, multiple injured in shooting during Juneteenth celebration in Round Rock, Texas
Crime is not down. Crime reporting is.
I have written extensively on this topic. I need to be clear that I want crime to be down. However, we compare apples to oranges when publications suggest a massive reduction in crime when 6,097 agencies submitted no data in 2022 (32% of all police agencies).
Check out the picture in the link of the weapons, mask, vest… SCARY.
What is wrong with people? How can you have such little respect for authority?
Oakland homeowner arrested after fatally shooting burglary suspect
Whole Foods CEO shares the No. 1 red flag he sees in employees: I learned it ‘the hard way’
Interesting perspective.
Online passport renewal is now available for some applicants. Here's how it works.
A weaker dollar, skyrocketing prices and ‘record’ visitor numbers: Good luck in Europe this summer
Wells Fargo Fires Employees Over "Mouse Jigglers"
I never heard of a Mouse Jiggler. It seems as they make it look as though you are working at your desk when you are off at the beach. It was supposed to trick employers into thinking you are working when you are not. I am hearing about more firings over WFH employees gaming the system.
Transgender swimmer Lia Thomas fails in challenge to rules that bar her from elite women's races
Good. Biological men should not be allowed to compete against biological women at any level, in my opinion.
We need accountability. We are failing our kids and the ramifications are dire.
Rare white buffalo at Yellowstone National Park fulfills Native American prophecy
Ancient stone from ‘lost’ civilization discovered — dating back to 600 B.C.
Real Estate
I love connecting with readers and this weekend I did it a bunch of times in the Hamptons, including with a legendary reader from NYC. I met him due to the Rosen Report when he sent me a nice note introducing himself. He reminisced about the 1970s and told me some amazing stories that I enjoyed given how different business was back then. In the mid 1970s, he bid on a house in East Hampton on 3.6 acres with 225 feet of direct ocean frontage for $500k. Turns out it sold for $550k to someone else. The buyer did not like it and offered it within a couple years for $1.2mm and my reader bought it. My reader then sold it for $6mm in 1991. Legendary Private Equity investor, Tom Lee, bought it in 2001 for $16.2mm from Lee Radzwill (Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis’ Sister) and Tom redid the house. Tom died last year and it just got listed for $120mm. Although I am not convinced it is worth $120mm, it sure is worth a hell of a lot more than when my reader bought it in the late 1970s for $1.2mm! The other story my friend told me was from 1968. My reader bought a duplex in 784 Park for $125k. Remember, I had the PH in 791 Park across the street years later. After he purchased the co-op, markets imploded and he told me he could not get what he paid for it for years. Think about that. A duplex on Park that you could not sell for the $125k you paid. My have times changed. Will we ever see such carnage with nearly 10 years of depressed real estate markets? From Jan 1973 to Septemebr 1974, the S&P 500 went from 855 to 394 or -54%. NYC almost filed for bankruptcy in 1975.
Home foreclosures rose last month as budgets continue to get squeezed by higher prices that have lingered despite high interest rates and the housing market continues to be one of the most unaffordable in history with growing list prices and expensive mortgage rates. Foreclosures have been on the upswing in 2024 after cratering over the previous several years mostly due to eviction moratoriums put in place during the pandemic, but it comes at a time of low affordability in the housing and rental markets and after several years of significant price increases for necessities. A report released this week by real estate data provider ATTOM found there were foreclosure filings on 32,621 properties in the U.S. It was a 3% increase from last month, but a 7% decline from the year prior. More than a third of completed foreclosures were concentrated in five states: California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas.
I have often written about the Austin, TX real estate market. During COVID, it was booming and houses were selling quickly. However, we have seen things cool sharply in Austin recently. Potential homebuyers on the prowl for a house in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown area have a lot more inventory to choose from than usual. Active listings rose to over 12,000 residential properties in May according to the latest MLS report. The spike in active listings is a 37.7% year-over-year increase from May 2023, the report said, with more than 5,200 new home listings added last month in a 16.3% increase from this time last year. Median prices for homes in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA dipped to $459,450 in May after they reached nearly $470,000 in April. The article gives examples. If I was not a resident of FL, I would move to Nashville, TN.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #691 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
