Liverwurst-One Bite is All It Took
7-31-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about how I overate in NYC during Restaurant Week for a piece entitled, “I Failed You.” The most opened links were the orca killing a great white shark and the Florida squatter who got 40 years in jail.
I have written about PGA Tour rookie, Max Greyserman, and his golfing family many times. Well, he just shot a final round 63 (-8) on Sunday to come in 2nd place at the PGA Tour event in Minnesota. He had the low round Sunday and hit amazing shots-none better than an insane shot through the trees and over water on #18 from 256 yards (“stock 4-iron”). This article is entitled, “This PGA Tour rookie didn’t win the 3M Open. But stole the show. The video of the crazy shot is in the link. Clearly, being an avid reader and contributor to the Rosen Report has helped his golf game tremendously.
I have been back in the Hamptons for a week and am ready to go to Marion, MA for some golf and to see friends on Cape Cod… if it stops raining.
Markets
Insurance Markets
Accountability & Work Ethic by Kobe
Healthspan
US Office Pain-Only The Beginning
Fort Lauderdale High End Market
Best and Worst States to Retire
Pictures of the Day-Sag Harbor Tavern Burger
Sag Harbor is a quaint town in the Hamptons and the folks from Red Hook Tavern in Brooklyn opened the Sag Harbor Tavern recently. I had been dying to try the world-famous burger and finally did on Saturday for lunch. They have outdoor seating right in front of the marina which makes for a lovely setting. I ordered the burger medium-rare and it was one of the best burgers I have had recently. It comes with perfectly melted American cheese and sits atop a raw-white onion. I love onions and will caramelize them or at least throw them on the grill for 2 minutes each side to take the bite out of a raw onion for my burgers. Sag Harbor Tavern does not do that, allowing the burger heat and juices to cook the onion by setting it under the burger. It is a large hamburger that most people won’t finish, and it comes with cottage fries that are quite good. I highly recommend the $30 dry aged burger at Sag Harbor Tavern.
Liverwurst-One Bite is All it Took
I started my career at Continental Bank in Chicago at 231 South LaSalle in 1992. The first few months were spent in an amazing Credit Training program where college professors and bankers came in to teach the class about finance, modeling, credit underwriting, and presentation skills. I learned more in those months than I learned in college and business school combined. During this time, I became friendly with a few of my analyst classmates.
We were young and loved to work out. We ate constantly in an effort to gain muscle (as 21-year-olds with fast metabolisms, 4,000 calories a day was the norm) and would go to the gym after work, trying to outdo one another.
After the training program, my friend, Chris Seter, and I were placed on the same floor, but in different groups. Chris is 6’9” and 250 lbs and played basketball at the University of Michigan. In March of 2022, I wrote about my traumatic experience as a groomsman at his wedding and my conversation with Duke Basketball Coach “K.”
Chris and I each brought three or four sandwiches to work every day to augment our lunch, so we could eat something every couple of hours. I brought in things like PB&J, Turkey, Tuna…and always placed it in my lower left desk drawer. One day, I got up to go to a meeting and when I came back, I found my PB&J sandwich on my desk, reduced to nothing but the outline of a crust. Turns out, someone with a very large mouth had taken one bite and eaten everything but the crust. I looked over at Chris, who sat 8 desks down and was doubled over laughing, and I gave him my best “Manson Lamps.”
I waited a few days before seeking revenge, but when Chris got up from his desk, I ran over, grabbed one of his sandwiches and took the biggest bite I could muster. Almost immediately, I started to cry as I realized the German Giant had made a liverwurst sandwich, which is somewhere between disgusting and vile. I was gagging and ran to a garbage can to spit out what could be the single worst-tasting sandwich of all time. Everyone was hysterical and I was physically ill. Chris, came back to find me in tears, the team laughing, and his sandwich half eaten.
No, the picture below is not edited, and I am not a midget. Yes, Chris is actually that tall.
Even though Chris put me through this kind of trauma on too many occasions, I will still do anything to break bread with my dear friend, even if I have to eat liverwurst again. Well, maybe not liverwurst.
Quick Bites
The earnings season has been a solid one thus far. Of the more than 230 S&P 500 names that have reported, about 80% have beaten earnings expectations, according to data from FactSet. Tuesday saw tech under pressure with Nvidia -8% only to rally by 13% on Wednesday post AMD earnings which beat pushing the stock +4%. Meta, Amazon and Apple all report this week. MSFT shares fell due to disappointing cloud revenue despite better than expected earnings. However, stocks flew sharply higher on Wednesday with the S&P +2%, Nasdaq +3% and Russell +2.3% on the heels of AMD, Fed comments, and a broader tech rally. Nothing seems to detract the rally (geopolitical risks, higher oil, election turmoil…). The VIX hit 19+ one week ago and is now 15.7. As expected, the Fed held rates steady but suggested inflation is getting closer to target. “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance,” the Federal Open Market Committee’s post-meeting statement said, a slight upgrade from previous language. Treasury yields moved up slightly on the statement and fell during the commentary with the 2-year yield at 4.35% and the 10-year yield at 4.12%. Powell said in his speech that a September rate cut was ‘on the table” if inflation continued to cool helped to push stocks even higher. Oil was up over 4% on Wednesday due to deterioration in the Middle East. Check out the chart on construction job openings below showing less hiring in the space but markets don’t care.
I have written extensively on insurance costs skyrocketing on the property and casualty side. The U.S. homeowner’s insurance segment posted its worst underwriting results in over a decade in 2023, according to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The net combined ratio for the homeowners business, excluding policyholders’ dividends, was 110.5 in 2023, the highest since 2011 (121.9). S&P said inflationary pressures, the devastating wildfire in Hawaii and a record-breaking number of billion-dollar loss events from convective storms weighed on the industry’s results. Among the 20 largest U.S. homeowners insurers, only Chubb Ltd. and Amica Mutual Insurance Co. saw combined ratios under 100 in 2023. Chubb’s net combined ratio was 89.6 in 2023, while Amica posted a combined ratio of 97.4. Maybe this explains why Buffett was recently buying up almost $7bn in Chubb stock. Berkshire Hathaway also owns Geico and is a major re-insurance player. Florida and California are very challenging insurance markets between fires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and droughts… the damage in both states has been massive. Many people in Florida have seen rates skyrocket in recent years or even worse, been dropped by major carriers. This CNBC article suggests the average car insurance rate was +26% in 2024, with some states seeing nearly 50% increases.
Rosen Report sponsor, Kevin, Lang, of Lang Insurance (866-964-4434) has been helping me and many readers with their insurance needs in all 50 states for home, auto, art, jewelry, planes, boats, umbrella... There are a few testimonials below from RR readers who are now Lang clients as well.
When you interact with the best leaders on the planet, they will discuss accountability and work ethic. This is a short video of NBA great, Kobe Bryant, discussing holding people accountable. It is an amazing story that shows why he was such a great player. He outworked everyone, as former NBA player Jay Williams discusses in this video. Kobe expected greatness and believed that with hard work and dedication, anything was possible. I think these short videos are a good lesson for anyone trying to make it at whatever they want to do. Hold yourself accountable. Be intellectually honest with your strengths and weaknesses and outwork everyone. It won’t guarantee success, but it sure will improve your odds. Kobe discussed Shaq’s potential in many videos where he felt Shaq was lazy. He said, “If Shaq had my work ethic, they could have won 12 championships.” I agree. He was lazy and could not shoot free-throws. I outline Shaq’s work ethic in a short segment of a speech about living up to your potential. On a side note, I took a boxing class with a reader this week-something I had not done one in a year. I was not in boxing shape and found myself wanting to cut corners on the exercises. I recalled Kobe’s advice and pushed myself to complete the assigned tasks. I was only going to cheat myself.
I have a diverse reader group from CEOs of Fortune 500 companies to billionaire investors, elite athletes, school principals, college students and grandparents. One of my readers, John Coyle. Stanford educated and an Olympic medalist in speed skating. He is also a motivational speaker and sent me an article he wrote on aging. It is entitled, “How Old Are You Really.” Some of you may follow the nut job, Bryan Johnson, who spends $2mm a year on being biologically younger. I take my health seriously, given my father died of a heart attack at 39 years old, when I was 5. I feel John’s article has a lot of good thoughts and examples about “Healthspan,” and improving one’s quality of life. Eating properly, exercise, having solid mental health and life balance all play a factor. John’s article outlines studies on aging that are quite interesting. For all those who want to learn more, you should check it out. John’s bio can be found here. Pretty darn impressive. He is a loyal Rosen Report reader. What else would you expect?
2024 Election
By any measure, the race for the 2024 Presidential election is tightening, as seen in the charts below. Just 10 days ago, Trump was riding high after the debate, surviving an assassination attempt, favorable court ruling on the classified documents case and a successful convention. Then Biden announced he was stepping out of the race and the momentum clearly shifted toward the Democrats. The UAW union endorsed VP Harris over Trump on Wednesday. The major polls and betting odds are far closer than they were just days prior. Democratic Pollster, Nate Silver, still sees Trump with a 61% chance of winning in November, but Harris has improved over Biden. Also contributing is negative media around JD Vance with his net approval rating plummeting from -6 to -15 in the past week. Much of the media and social media is supporting Harris. Check out this WaPo story title, “‘Pure adrenaline’: Campaign reporters energized by remade 2024 race.” This link has a CNN panelist calling out the media for not scrutinizing Harris on her positions. Of note, PredictIt has Shapiro at 79 and Beshear at 10 for the Dem VP.
Obama Instigated Anti-Biden Coup With '25th Amendment' Threat
Multiple reports indicate that Obama threatened Biden with the 25th Amendment if he did not stand down on running for President. “Obama called Biden after breakfast [on July 20] and said, ‘Here’s the deal. We have Kamala’s approval to invoke the 25th Amendment,'” a senior Washington official told Hersh. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries were reportedly directly involved. Yes, they got to the right answer, and a lot of credit goes to Pelosi and Obama for playing hard ball.
This was an epic failure, and Americans have not had questions answered. We need transparency. These agents were protecting the former President and, at the time, the clear front runner. How was the shooter not approached and taken out in advance? I want answers. Acting Secret Service director ‘hurt’ by counter sniper’s email ripping leadership after Trump shooting. The acting director of the Secret Service was grilled in a Senate hearing on Tuesday.
D.C. is seeing more divorces and custody battles over politics
I have written about media bias before, but here is another example from CNN. Remember, the media told us you were an idiot for considering hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID. The same author from CNN crushed Trump for suggesting hydroxychloroquine but later wrote about how it helped patients. Do you think they did a retraction?
Israel/Middle East
The Middle East is escalating in recent days. Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Shukr was responsible for the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 307 people. The attack was in response to the IDF rocket that killed 12 kids in Israel. Then Israel killed Hamas Chief, Haniyeh in Tehran after he attended the President’s inauguration. At the inauguration, they were chanting, “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” Iran’s supreme leader is vowing revenge and I expect Israel will be hit with countless missiles in coming days. Energy markets are fearing escalation in the Middle East for good reason.
'Even the cockroaches won't survive': Expert discusses Hezbollah's new EMP weapon
Turkey’s President Says His Country Could Enter Israel to Help Palestinians
Hamas sends hostage torture video with direct warning to Israeli minister
Terrorist group warns harsher conditions for Israeli hostages if punishment of Palestinian prisoners does not ease
Sanders, Harris and Warren defend Ilhan Omar amid controversy over Israel comments
TikToker heads to Palestine to ask locals about Hamas, gets threatened to delete footage
Watch this short video.
I Never Thought I Could Be Attacked as a Jew in New York City—Until It Happened.
Scary story of a man in his 70s being attacked for being a Jew while walking a dog in Central Park. We need serious consequences for hate crimes of any kind, but woke DAs from major cities refuse to hold people accountable.
Judoka Shouts ‘Allahu Akhbar’ and Refuses to Shake Israeli Athlete’s Hand, Then Gets Humbled
The athlete from Tajikistan refused to shake the Israeli opponent’s hand. Sadly, the Israeli lost. In the next round, the Tajikistani lost badly and dislocated his shoulder. He was crying on the mat.
Is screaming "Heil H.tler" and making the N@zi salute during the Israeli national anthem acceptable?
Other Headlines
Investors Are Suddenly Getting Very Concerned That AI Isn't Making Any Serious Money
McDonald’s earnings, revenue miss estimates as consumer pullback worsens
More companies are sighting a weakening consumer in earnings reports.
Merck beats earnings expectations, raises sales outlook on strong demand for top drugs like Keytruda (Stock -9% post earnings)
Pfizer beats earnings estimates, hikes full-year outlook as drugmaker cuts costs
Stock +1.5% post earnings.
Procter & Gamble earnings beat estimates, but quarterly sales disappoint
Stock -4.2% post earnings.
Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo plunges 10% on full-year sales decline, but Guinness a bright spot
CrowdStrike shares plunge 10% to lowest level of the year on report that Delta may seek damages
The stock is -40% in a month driven by the epic software upgrade failure.
Starbucks revenue misses estimates as same-store sales decline for second straight quarter (Stock rallied on news)
Boeing reports wider-than-expected loss, weaker revenue
Stock was +2% on day with broad rally but is -24% YTD. New CEO hired.
Tesla Analyst Nearly Crashes While Using ‘Full Self-Driving’
Neuralink rival Synchron lets patients control Apple Vision Pro with their thoughts
More People Are Driving on Cannabis. Law Enforcement Is Racing to Learn Who Is High.
I do not do drugs and have never even tried a gummy. The proliferation of pot smokers is concerning from my perspective, and I fear we will see more driving incidents as more states legalize the drug.
Illegal immigrant in vicious Times Square attack on NYPD cops will spend year in jail with plea deal
3 children dead, 10 injured in mass stabbing at dance school's Taylor Swift-themed class (UK)
Open borders sure make America safer. NOT.
Short seller Andrew Left surrenders on securities fraud charges in L.A., due in court
Pretty serious accusations in the documents. However, his lawyer is vocal that they will not settle.
I’m a neurosurgeon — reduce your dementia risk in 10 simple steps
Alzheimer’s blood test catches 90% of early dementia cases, study finds
1 million people now owe more than $200,000 in federal student loans
I am not sure how well this invention will work, but it is a brilliant idea. Click the link to find out how this solar powered, self-cleaning, AI driven fake tree can kill the intended target species. The inventor better get into every college she applies.
The noon-to-4 is the new 9-to-5 for driving commuters, but it's not helping traffic congestion
The article outlines changing traffic patterns due to work from home.
Mercury may have 10-mile thick layer of diamonds beneath its surface, NASA craft discovers
For perspective, Mercury is 75.4mm miles away from the earth while the moon is 238.9k miles away. It seems it will take me a while to get to Mercury to get some diamonds.
Stiff-arms to wins: Highlights of Ilona Maher's rugby play at the Paris Olympics
She is 5’10” and 200lbs of muscle. She is running people over. She has been attacked for her BMI of nearly 30, suggesting she is near obese. BMI is not a good measure of health for many elite athletes. Are Lebron James or Travis Kelce nearly obese? The link has a video of her response to haters. It is amazing.
On Sunday night, the blaze was 562 square miles and started after a man pushed a burning car into a gully.
In show of growing ties, Russian warships make new visit to Cuban waters
Entrenched incumbent Maduro is declared winner of Venezuela’s disputed presidential election
Real Estate
Good Bloomberg article entitled, “US Office Loan Pain Is Only Starting to Ramp Up.“ Any hopes that falling borrowing costs would stem the pain from the US office downturn were swept away this week. Deutsche Bank AG set aside more money for souring US commercial real estate loans, while a Blackstone Inc. mortgage trust slashed its dividend. New York Community Bancorp’s shares then plunged the most since the last bout of CRE-related turmoil in March after provisions for losses came in at more than double the average expected by analysts. The announcements signal that lenders may not be able to just amend and extend loans in the hope that lower interest rates will ease borrowers’ pain and give property owners more time to refinance debt. More than $94 billion of US commercial real estate is currently distressed, according to MSCI Real Assets, with a further $201 billion at risk of slipping into that category. “As a $1.5 trillion wall of loan maturities hits over the next two years, the implications are profound,” John Murray and François Trausch at Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in a note this week. I am not concerned about the larger banks but feel some regionals and REITS should come under pressure.
Given the insanity of high-end home prices in Miami and Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale is getting the attention of more high-end buyers. A new mansion on the waterfront of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, has hit the market with a $47.9 million price tag. The contemporary-style mansion—designed by Dov Stark’s Prestige Homes—is entirely made of porcelain slabs, both inside and out, according to Rick Teed of the Agency, who brought the property to market last week along with his colleague Daniel Tzinker. While the exterior of Florida homes near the water often need to be restored and repainted, Teed said the porcelain construction will keep the house from requiring that kind of maintenance. This house in Fort Lauderdale has 298 feet of frontage on a .52 acre lot and is asking $50mm. I prefer the extra water frontage. 300 Feet on the water in Miami or Palm Beach is another level. It could be $100mm. Remember, if you are looking at buying or selling, I can assist you, now that I am working with Douglas Elliman.
This CNBC article outlines the 10 best places to retire and This CNBC article outlines the 10 worst states to retire in the US. The factors considered were Affordability (40%), Overall wellbeing (25%), Quality and cost of healthcare (20%), Weather (10%) and Crime (5%). Despite the recent sharp uptick in the cost of living, I think Florida is right there as the best, but Bankrate has it at #8. I was surprised Delaware and Iowa made the top list and Tennessee and North Carolina did not. I am not surprised by some of the worst states, but given the major migration to Texas, did not expect it to be #9 on the list.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #704 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
