Opening Comments
My last note was about the idiotic new sport of Hobby Horse Jumping. I received countless funny responses on the absurdity of the new sport. The most opened links were, the Hobby Horse Jumping video and the clarification link about improving battery charging.
I recently wrote about my 7 years in South Florida and concluded that I was very happy there. I did receive some negative responses from readers who feel as though Florida is terrible and some were not fans of DeSantis. I am definitely of the opinion that Florida is not for everyone. Stay where you are in NYC, Chicago, LA, San Fran and DC if that is the case. However, another ranking just came out showing Florida was the #2 state in the country to live in today. The full article and list can be found here. Florida has one of the lowest unemployment rates and one of the highest rates of job opportunities per capita, according to the study. It has some of the highest housing costs, but other factors like low tax rates and higher median household income growth “(make) it a great place to build and grow wealth.”
Gramercy Tavern
I am a big Danny Meyer fan, despite the fact that I do not care for Shake Shack. Union Square Cafe, The Modern, Maialino (Closed), Gramercy Tavern and others have been go-to restaurants for me. However, Danny is no longer the CEO as of a couple years ago and I can tell you his restaurants are no longer what they once were. When Union Square was on 16th Street, I ate there twice a month. However, I have had good, but not amazing meals recently at Union Square and again at Grammercy Tavern. I went to get the famous burger at Gramercy Tavern for $35 and, although it looked good, it fell short for me. The burger itself was solid and was cooked medium rare, as requested. The bread was far too big for the burger and it was overly cheesed.
I have not discussed COVID in a long time. However, it seems that dozens of Rosen Report readers have tested positive in the past few weeks. It seems as though we are seeing a sharp uptick in cases. This chart is a few days old, but you can see the sharp swing in positivity.
We are back in South Florida due to the idiocy of schools starting in mid-August. South Florida in August is awful. Getting off the plane, you could feel the heat!
Video of the Day-A Golden Retriever Acts as Mother to Tigers
Markets
Starbucks CEO Pay
Citadel Dominating
Private Clubs Through Credit Cards
Consumer Shopping Trends
New R/E Rules
Older Miami Condos Under Pressure
NYC Office In Building in Trouble
Video of the Day-A Golden Retriever Act as Mother To Tigers
I was fascinated by this video showing a Golden Retriever that raised tigers when they were abandoned at birth. Now that the tigers are grown, they think she is their mother. The relatively small dog controls the tiger’s behavior. It is truly unbelievable. The dog nursed the baby tigers and raised them. Now the tigers obey her every command despite being 10 times the size of her. Maternal instincts are incredible.
Jacked
On Friday, August 9th, I was scheduled to be at lunch in Sag Harbor with my friends at 3i. I enjoy these events and always make good connections. I was driving from Southampton town, which is approximately 30 minutes away. A few hundred yards from my house, a deer ran in front of my car, and I swerved to avoid the deer. However, when I swerved, I hit a curb and got a flat tire.
I have no problem changing a tire in a hurry so I thought I would make lunch. I was WRONG. I could not get the damn spare tire out of the rental car, despite having directions. I was getting quite greasy, so I took off my shirt, still thinking I was making the lunch. I finally called a friend for help. No joy. He could not get the jack out either. I called another handyman and, although he got the spare out, we encountered other issues.
The small jack that is meant to lift the car to change the tire was a crappy one. The Dodge Durango rental car was on a side street in Southampton Town and, when we jacked up the car, the jack did not hold. Someone could have been seriously injured. Thankfully, the flat tire was still on the car, so when it fell down, the tire prevented injury or damage to the vehicle. Phil, one of my friends, went back to get a more industrial strength jack.
Sadly, the entire ordeal took a couple hours, and I missed what I was told was a great lunch. The spare tire was tiny and felt uncomfortable driving around. I went to the rental car company, and they had no cars in stock. I had to go to a tire replacement center to get a new tire instead. I got the flat tire at 11:45am. I did not get the new tire until 2:30pm. Dejected, sweaty and covered in grease and dirt, I missed my fun date with friends and went home to take a shower. Sadly, I got jacked!
Quick Bites
This week had jobs and inflation data (discussed in last report), consumer spending and sentiment data. Consumer spending outpaced expectations with retail sales +1% relative to +.3% expected. The solid consumer spending coupled with strong Walmart earnings and outlook drove stocks higher as market participants believed it was a sign that a recession is less likely. The Russell and Nasdaq outperformed the Dow and S&P on Thursday’s move. Friday saw consumer sentiment rise to 67.8 from 66.4 according to the University of Michigan. For the week, the S&P 500 added nearly 3.9%, its best week since November 2023. The Nasdaq gained 5.2%. Shares of Nvidia are among the biggest winners in technology stocks on the week with a gain of more than 18%. Apple and Microsoft advanced roughly 4% and 3%, respectively, for the week. Oil fell back down below $77/barrel as Qatar prime minister urged Iran to hold off on attacking Israel.
I am a big believer in pay for performance. I believe if you add value, you should be compensated for it. Many CEOs are actually underpaid despite making countless millions, as they add a great deal of value. What is TSLA or SpaceX without Elon Musk? Would Apple, Amazon or JPMorgan have been world-class firms and had that stock performance without Jobs, Bezos, and Dimon, respectively? I think not. There was just a shakeup at Starbucks where the CEO (Laxman Narasimhan) was ousted after abysmal stock performance. He was interviewed and made it clear he does not like to work past 6 pm given work/life balance. During this time, Starbucks’ share price declined 23.9% following consecutive quarterly drops in comparable-store sales, including a notable 18% drop in China. This has led to a dismal $32 billion drop in market cap. Although the exact terms of his firing are not fully public, he stands to make between $10-21mm. I guess it could be worse, but given the destruction in his wake, I think the potential $20mm payout seems steep after being paid $14.6mm the prior year. Incoming Starbucks CEO, Brian Nicol’s massive pay package is outlined in this Reuters article and is quite substantial between cash, equity awards and stock grants to make up for his lost Chipotle stock. Nicol has been crucial in turning around Taco Bell and Chipotle and is known to look at ways to save money. However, Starbucks has some issues including inflation making expensive coffee challenging for many consumers. I know it is in a different price point, but I was with someone at Saint Ambrose in Southampton and the ordered a coffee. With tip, it was $12.80. Also, labor costs are hurting the company as are far longer wait times. Another issue is the health factor. So many calories and sugar in these coffees and with more of the global population on weight loss drugs, it poses a challenge.
This is an interesting WSJ article entitled, “Citadel’s Ken Griffin Has Remade the Hedge-Fund Industry, With Himself on Top.” “We made more money than any firm has ever made in the history of capital markets,” Griffin said of Citadel and a sister company, Citadel Securities. “This is where people come when they want to change the world of finance.” Last year the firm’s flagship fund was up 15.3%, outpacing the 7.4% gain in a broad hedge-fund industry index. It’s a big comeback from the firm’s near-failure in the 2008-09 financial crisis. Griffin, 55 years old, is known inside Citadel as an intense, demanding boss whose blue-eyed stare is a source of discomfort for employees. He is obsessed with guarding against complacency and said in a recent investor letter he wants to “create the most formidable team in the history of hedge funds.” Make no mistake, Griffin is incredibly impressive and what he has built is legendary. He started out of his dorm room at Harvard as can be seen in this 2-minute video. Citadel meaningfully outperforms peers and seems to have the recipe for success.
I have written about the growth of private clubs and how they have become increasingly challenging and costly to gain membership. This WSJ article is entitled, “The Hottest Club in Town Is… Run by Your Credit-Card Company?” According to the article, the AmEx Black Card has a 17,500 foot space right next to the Chrysler Building. Customers who pay $5,000 a year for the Centurion Card, better known as the Black Card, can walk into the lounge whenever they please and reserve meeting or event spaces. Everyone else needs a reservation. The Chase lounge at New York’s Madison Square Garden offers free food, water and soda, and a stand selling memorabilia that lets fans avoid the long lines at other merch sellers. The megabank took over what used to be the Knicks season-ticket-holder lounge last year and renovated it according to its 40-page branding guidelines for interior decor. Credit-card companies are willing to foot the costs of operating lounges and hosting special events because they need to stand out in an increasingly competitive market.
This is a good CNBC article outlining consumer shopping trends and includes great charts. 1) As prices rise, shopping behaviors shift. 2) Window shopping is out and intentional shopping is in. 3) Inflation drives up cart values. 4) Strategic splurging gives consumers access to luxuries. 5) Slight increases in advertiser spending add up.
2024 Election
There is good news and bad news around Kamala Harris and the recent policy announcements. The good news is she is starting to give us her policies, something that has been lacking. The bad news is some of her awful ideas are so bad that even WaPo and CNN are questioning them. The biggest issue facing criticism is price controls on groceries and massive handouts. The price controls are a horrible idea for a lot of reasons. Namely, they lead to shortages and more disruption than intended. Look no further than Venezuela, Argentina and the Soviet Union. Good short video from CNN on this topic. The country is coming out of massive inflation due to horrific policies by the Biden Administration and the Fed. We need sound policies for the next administration. Kamala, do you want to rethink anything? I love the All-In Podcast and Liberal, David Friedberg, eviscerates Harris as can be seen here. Great charts. David is incredibly articulate and outlines all the reasons the Harris “price control plan” is a bad one.
There are a lot of stories on social media about a host of the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump on ABC. Dana Walden, a debate host, introduced Kamala to her husband, Doug. "My best friend [Dana Walden] who is like a sister to me, called me up and she's like 'I need you go to out with this guy'. She's very bossy, as best friends should be." Does anyone else see a conflict here? Walden is also a Biden appointee and has been a major donor to Harris for years. Do you remember when CNN’s Donna Brazile gave Hillary the questions in advance of her debate with Trump? What are the chances Kamala gets the questions in advance here from her “Best Friend?” Why not have less biased moderators?
In my last note, I wrote of media bias around this election. A savvy reader sent me this with respect to polling. If your question is, do I feel the Harris campaign has the momentum right now, the answer is “YES.” The issue is, the polls are not all as they appear with big changes to the type of people being polled. See below:
JD Vance is now the least popular VP candidate in modern history – even below Sarah Palin
I am confused by this chart that claims it used the FiveThirtyEight polls. The 2nd chart shows Kamala’s approval rating over time on the 538 site. It shows Harris was -15.2 in November of 2023 and is now -7.
After record-breaking years, migrant crossings plunge at US-Mexico border
Where does Kamala stand on this topic? She did nothing as the Border Czar. Is the recent decline a ploy for the election or a change in policy?
Donald Trump asks judge to delay sentencing in hush money case until after November election
Trump diehard claims she was barred from wearing MAGA hat at Citi Field: ‘Discrimination’
Secret Service beefs up security for Trump, including with bulletproof glass
Tim Walz’s 2006 campaign falsely described details about his arrest for drunk driving in 1995
How is this even a discussion? How can we consider not having an ID to vote? To get into Kamala’s recent AZ rally, you needed a government ID!
Israel/Middle East
US ‘bridging proposal’ for Gaza deal said to exclude two of Netanyahu’s key demands
Palestinian whose name appears on terror watchlist captured at southern border
How many terrorists, murderers, rapists, gang members and bad actors have made it through the porous borders in recent years?
Over half of Hamas’ forces have been wiped out as Israel’s war goals are within reach
Anti-Israel protesters clash with law enforcement, unleash smoke bombs following Harris rally
Brave judge defends the Constitution in ruling on UCLA ‘Jew Exclusion Zone’
The judge denounced that the “Jew Exclusion Zone” at UCLA was a violation of the First Amendment. Wait, did we find someone who sides with Jews? Amazing. The school receives billions in state and federal funding for students and research and violated the constitution.
New York county signs first mask ban into US law, sparking controversy
The opponents suggest it is targeting protestors. I am all for this law that results in up to a year in jail and $1,000 fine.
Columbia University’s radical anti-Israel group seeks ‘total eradication of Western civilization’
Embattled Columbia president Minouche Shafik resigns months after anti-Israel student protests
Other Headlines
Goldman Cuts US Recession Risk Following Retail Sales, Jobs Data
Cut from 25 to 20%.
Could Hindenburg’s latest allegations have wider implications for India?
Gold rallies to record high on softer dollar, rate-cut expectations
Egg prices are rising once again as bird flu limits supply
I bought eggs Saturday night and did not feel they were ridiculous at $4.99 for a dozen organic eggs at Whole Foods. However, I have been in the Hamptons were I was being robbed at the store for three months.
Walmart says prices are coming down — except in one key area
Dry groceries and processed foods were mentioned.
New Breed of EV Promises 700 Miles per Charge (Just Add Gas)
It runs on batteries 95% of the time, but a gasoline engine can recharge them for longer hauls, easing range anxiety.
I have questioned the near term reality of self-driving cars for some time. Although I believe AI will make self-driving a reality, I feel we have a way to go.
Hong Kong Tycoon Adrian Cheng Expects City to Become Top Wealth Hub
This story is crazy. This mass murderer came into the US illegally on May 16th, was arrested and released. ICE found him after two months. One of the alleged killings is of a police officer in Peru. How are we ok with such an awful border?
The police believe a group of up to a dozen migrant boys or young men are responsible for roughly 10 robberies. There is a reason counties have a border.
Squeegee men have returned to Midtown West — and locals say they’re ‘getting aggressive’
George Santos Is Expected to Plead Guilty, People Close to the Case Say
Ex-University of Florida president gave former Senate staffers large raises, report finds
The University of Florida school newspaper broke the story and, it is a bit concerning. It suggests that former University of Florida president, Sasse, spent considerably more money than prior presidents. Overall, Sasse's office spent $17.3 million during his first year compared to the $5.6 million spent by his predecessor Ken Fuchs in his final year. "I am confident that the expenditures under discussion were proper and appropriate," Sasse said. I held Sasse in high regard for his leadership at the University of Florida. I hope that he is cleared of the accusations.
I’m a surgeon — you should go to the ER if you have this symptom
Lacking purpose later in life could signal cognitive decline
I am a big believer that being engaged, active and intellectually stimulated is crucial for your health.
Teens’ Energy-Drink Habit Is Amping Anxiety, Disrupting Class and Triggering Seizures
Young people are staying up late, consuming excess caffeine and crashing during school. We do not have energy drinks or soda in the house.
People leave New Zealand in record numbers as economy bites
For some reason, I have fantasized about living in New Zealand despite having never been there.
Top 10 Causes of Death in America
The possibility of life on other planets is more likely than we know
As the chief scientist of the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif. — the world’s leading center for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence — I am convinced that finding life beyond Earth is not a matter of if but a matter of when. I agree 100%. I am convinced we are not alone.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says Kyiv troops have full control of the Russian town of Sudzha
This is a tragic war with lots of death, injury, and property destruction. Who is going to pay to rebuild? Articles from months ago suggest $500bn to rebuild Ukraine. It seems Russia was caught flat-footed and Ukraine has made some recent progress. This article suggests Russia made the largest troop surrender since the start of the war.
Real Estate
There are changes to the process for buying and selling a home that went effective Saturday. I am digesting everything and will try to put something more concrete together next week. Below are some links outlining the new rules:
I have written about the impact of the collapse of Champlain Tower South in Surfside in 2021. The result is many old buildings require expensive work and residents are forced to pay for it. This article gives examples. In short, I would be careful before buying in an older building. Some of my readers have been accessed hundreds of thousands of dollars and have seen numerous apartments go for sale in the building pushing down values.
The jumbo loan backed by Times Square Plaza, an office tower in the heart of Midtown, transferred to special servicing this month for imminent maturity default after its owner failed to lock down new financing. Longtime landlord The Tamares Group started shopping for debt in January to replace the $365 million loan coming due in October at 1500 Broadway, according to Morningstar Credit.
The search came up short. Now, the London-based landlord is vying for forbearance, servicer commentary shows. Similar troubles have plagued office landlords with maturing loans citywide. Most owners facing a CMBS maturity this year got the debt well before the pandemic when interest rates were half of what they are now — Tamares is paying 3.8% at Times Square Plaza — and occupancy wasn’t a problem.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #710 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
Thanks for the comments. I appreciate it. Sadly, I think both sides are bad and want new candidates. They all suck. I call out both sides. I appreciate your comments and readership. Post election there will be far less political commentary. The fact that you think I am pro right wing is kind of funny. I stand for borders, tough on crime, fiscal responsibility and holding people accountable. If that is Right Wing, so be it. I have been a registered independent for 15 years and vote for the best candidates regardless of party every time. The fact that Kamala had the lowest VP approval ratings in modern history and is now the “Joy” of the party is a bit comical. WaPo, CNN and left most economists are crushing her for her recent policy release. I try to call balls and strikes. I called for BOTH parties to get new candidates in at least 20 reports. I call out Trump constantly. Good luck. Thanks for reading.
Eric
I think your uber blog, would be better if you can stop your pro right wing political views and stick with finance, economy, restaurant reviews and the best and worst of various cities/states.
I will say this: the price of the blog is worth the read sans politics.