Protect Yourself-My Data Was Compromised
9-8-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about our staycation in Miami at the Four Season Surf Club with restaurant reviews. The most opened links were about Trump’s sex life and Kalama’s being fair game and the video of the brain surgeon outlining the worst brain scan he has ever seen.
For those longtime readers, you know I tell personal stories and then go into the ongoings of the world. Many of my stories are fun and meant to be entertaining. Today’s is no laughing matter and hopefully, it will protect you from the evil people trying to steal your identity. Reach out to me if you have questions, as I feel this is quite important. rosenreport@gmail.com
Correction. I have written about Venezuelan gangs in Colorado and Chicago. It turns out the story in Chicago was NOT TRUE. At the Rosen Report, we make corrections. I apologize for the error. The story was widely reported that Venezuelan gangs took over a Chicago apartment complex. A reader, Bob, pointed out my error.
Markets
Domino’s vs Google Stock/Aerospace & Defense vs S&P
Ultra Wealth
Caitlin Clark Impact
CNBC NFL Team Valuations
Palm Beach Island Inventory
North Bay Road Miami Major Sale
Mandarin Oriental Beverly Hills Troubles
Other R/E Headlines
Pictures of the Day-Greenlane Salad with Gronk
My close friend, Chris Burch, funded an exciting new salad concept, Greenlane, with two stores in Tampa and one in St. Petersburg, FL. I drove over 4 hours each way to the Grand Opening on Wednesday to check it out. Gronk is an investor/spokesperson and he was there handing out food in the drive-thru to astonished customers. Word got out quickly and the place was a zoo. The drive through/walk-up only restaurants are stunning and offer amazing value. There is no dine-in service making for a very efficient restaurant. My ginger sesame crunch wrap was huge and very reasonably priced at $8.69. They offer salads, wraps, protein boxes, chips, warm pretzels and cookies. Unlike many other salad restaurants, this is priced incredibly competitively, and the storefronts are stunning. Chris has great style and it shows with the concept. They are expanding in Tampa and soon in Orlando. Check it out. As an aside, Gronk could not have been nicer. I met him at the Today Show with my kids 9 years ago and he signed everything my son brought. He was great with the staff and customers at Greenlane. He is an amazing person on and off the field.
Protect Yourself-My Data Was Compromised
In the late 90s, I had a crazy experience. I was planning on buying my first apartment in NYC. I met with a mortgage broker for a loan, and I was told that I own a house in Connecticut with a $2mm mortgage. To be clear, I had never borrowed a dollar or had a credit card balance, let alone a mortgage. I had to call the authorities, and it turned out someone borrowed money under my name and Social Security number. It was an epic disaster that scared the crap out of me and took years to clear up.
In about 2011, I was doing work on my apartment in NYC and received an email from my JPM banker, Chris. He said, “Eric, did you just request a $152k wire?” I had not requested anything. Hackers got into MY EMAIL ACCOUNT and sent my banker a note saying to wire money to a contractor. The hackers knew I was doing construction, knew my banker and almost pulled it off. Thankfully, Chris suspected something.
Just a month ago, another card was compromised after I used it to buy gas in the Hamptons. I found over $3,000 in airline transactions that were not mine including $1,700 from Spirit. Almost impossible to spend that much on the world’s worst airline.
And now, Wednesday, I received this email from Chase.
I immediately called Chase, as I figured it was a scam. NOPE. It was real. Remember that massive breach I wrote about recently? Apparently, my data was stolen. The breach was from National Public Data and had nothing to do with Chase, but they alerted me that my information was compromised. It is reported that 2.9bn people had data stolen including social security numbers. Chances are, you were compromised.
As a result, JPM suggested I reach out to the credit bureaus (Experian, TransUnion Equifax) and freeze my accounts immediately. I was easily able to freeze my account at Equifax on line in 2 minutes. It was far harder at Experian and it required a phone call. You need to fill out some basic information, which is a little irritating including using codes sent via text. I just want people to be protected in light of the data breach and these scumbags who try to steal from you.
We live in a world where bad people try to steal your identity and your data is everywhere. I STRONGLY suggest people use the “Freeze Account” functionality to protect yourself in light of the data breach that totaled 2.9 BILLION records. If someone tries to open an account in your name, the credit agencies will block it if it is on a freeze.
Quick Bites
Tough week for stocks as fears of an economic slowdown pushed markets lower for the worst week of the year. On Friday, August payrolls came in at 142k vs 161k expected and the prior two months were downwardly revised by 86k. Stocks sold off and Treasuries rallied. Tech was under pressure with Amazon and Alphabet down more than 3%, while Nvidia fell back down below $103 (-4.3% on Friday). Remember, Nvidia was $130 two weeks ago. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF was -11.7% on the week. On the week, the S&P was -4.1% and the Nasdaq -5-5%. YTD, the S&P is +13.6%, Nasdaq +11.6% and Russell +3.6% Also contributing to the Treasury strength was Fed Governor Waller suggesting he would support a 50bps cut. The 2-Year Treasury fell 9bps to 3.67%. Futures suggest a 30% chance of a 50bps cut in September. However, on Friday, at one point, the likelihood of 50bps was over 50%. Despite OPEC delaying plans to increased production by 180k barrels a day, oil was -8% on the week and traded as low as $67 before recovering to $68+.
Harris had stated she wanted to raise capital gains taxes to 44.6% prior to her new plan. I panned that as a moronic idea that is bad for growth and investment. Harris unveiled her new and improved plan on Wednesday suggesting a top rate of 28% on long-term capital gains with annual income of $1mm or more. The current long-term capital gains rate is 20%. The 28% is an improvement from the prior idiocy. Last I checked, her unrealized capital gains tax of 25% on Americans with a net worth of $100mm or more remained intact. Despite the fact that it would only impact 10,000 Americans, I believe this is one of the more idiotic tax proposals I have ever seen and would do far more harm than good. How do you value illiquid assets such as real estate, art, private equity, and venture? Goldman suggests Harris’ tax plan may cut corporate profits by 5%. Trump and Vance want to cut taxes and, although I prefer to pay less than more, I do not feel aggressive tax cuts are warranted given $35 trillion in debt and $2 trillion in deficits in perpetuity. We need to keep taxes as is or slightly raise them AND significantly reduce spending in my opinion. I believe 2028 will be all about the deficit, debt and entitlements.
I was shocked by this chart showing Domino’s Pizza outperformed Google since their IPOs 20 years ago. I would have thought Google massively outperformed Domino’s. I delivered Pizza for Domino’s in high school. Too bad they did not pay me in stock. On a similar note, (2nd chart), since 1989, aerospace and defense stocks have significantly beaten the S&P 500.
The wealth of ultra-rich families will likely swell to $9.5 trillion by 2030, according to estimates from consultancy Deloitte, as family offices grow and morph to rival hedge funds. The figure would mark a 73% jump from the current $5.5 trillion controlled by people represented by family offices, according to the report. The number of investment firms for the wealthy is expected to grow by one-third over the same time period, to 10,720. As of October 2023, there were over 28,000 centi-millionaires worldwide, more than double the level 20 years prior. CNBC is reporting on the story as well. Deloitte said the biggest trends for family offices in the coming years will be the continued move toward “institutionalization” — with more professional management, governance and technology. More than a quarter of family offices now have multiple “branches” to serve different parts of the family, often in other countries.
Individuals have had incredible impacts on a sport over time. When you look at what Jordan did for the NBA, Tiger did for the PGA Tour, Serena for tennis… it is remarkable. When you look at the TV ratings, almost no one watched women’s college basketball or the WNBA a few years ago. The Caitlin Clark impact has been ENOURMOUS, and I would argue the biggest impact of any athlete of any sport in history over a two-year period between the NCAA and WNBA. There is way too much hate from other players who are jealous of her accomplishments. She was not selected to the Olympic Team and she said to her coach, “They woke a monster,” after the snub. Despite a tough start in the WNBA losing 7 out of 8, Clark is on FIRE. Last year, the Fever went 13-27 and with 6 games to play the team is 18-17. Caitlin’s team clinched a playoff spot and Clark is clearly the front runner for Rookie of the Year despite so many in the WNBA suggesting she would get crushed by the tougher competition. Clark is on the internet more than any other athlete in recent months from what I can tell, and discussion of the WNBA has skyrocketed. There have been 16 WNBA games with over 1mm viewers this year and Clark has played in 14 of them. Viewership on ABC and ESPN of WNBA games has TRIPLED. WNBA attendance is +156% from last year and more than half of all WNBA games have been sell-outs. The final Fever game of the season vs. Chicago is the most expensive ticket in WNBA history (the average is $385). Viewership is through the roof, ticket prices are up massively, and interest in the WNBA is higher than ever. No, it is not just Clark, but she can explain a hell of a lot of the interest in the sport. Thank you, Caitlin. I actually look for your highlights now, something I have never done in my life for the WNBA. She quiets her haters with solid play and professionalism.
2024 Election
Reminder, must watch TV is the debate on Tuesday, September 10th at 9pm on ABC.
Liz Cheney says she is voting for Harris for president
This is a big flip from August of 2020 when Cheney said, "Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov't. She wants to recreate America in the image of what's happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won't give her the chance." —former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (WY).
Former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney says he'll vote for Harris
He said Trump "can never be trusted with power again."
Eighty-eight corporate leaders endorse Harris in new letter, including CEOs of Yelp, Box
Harris raised over $300 million in August, extending cash windfall
More than twice what Trump raised
48 days: Kamala Harris has yet to do formal press conference since emerging as Democratic nominee
I feel this is a big mistake for Harris. She has evaded tough questions. You are running for the highest office in the land. Take the questions.
Alan Dershowitz leaves Democratic Party, cites DNC: 'I was disgusted'
Trump Campaign Spent $32 Million More Than It Raised in August
Trump Media shares erase 2024 gains as key DJT sale date nears
I have crushed this stock for 6 months discussing how overvalued it was based on financial performance and user metrics. The stock is -78% from the 2024 high. Despite the sell-off, the market cap remains $3.4bn.
At least he is surrounding himself with strong people.
Election ‘Nostradamus’ predicts Kamala Harris will win 2024 presidential race
He predicted 9 out of 10.
Mike Cembalest of JPM sent out this chart comparing the political ideology of US Presidential administrations
Woman with Trump forehead tattoo begs for cash on streets as fans say one thing
The 21-year-old moron got Trump tattooed on her forehead and is now begging for money to have it removed.
Israel/Middle East
Israel’s Ultra-Orthodox Jews Are at a Crossroads as Military-Draft Orders Arrive
Push to enlist Israel’s Haredi Jews comes as the military struggles to boost its ranks while fighting a multifront battle
Hamas’ brutal new tactics signal new phase in war and hostage crisis
The militants were told to kill hostages if the IDF approached. In my opinion, the US and Israel are not being aggressive enough. Again, what would happen if some terror group came to the US and killed 40,000 Americas and took thousands of hostages?
Very powerful message supporting the murdered hostages from Cuomo.
Other Headlines
Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs
JPMorgan top economist says the Fed should cut rates by a half point this month
I would be concerned if the Fed cut 50bps. Would show they are behind the curve and the economy is deteriorating too quickly.
Goldman Sachs’ hundreds of laid-off bankers face toughest job market since early COVID era
Icahn Enterprises shares plunge to 20-year low after $400mm unit sale
I am a huge Icahn fan and should have gone to work for him in 2012. My famous dinner with Icahn was so memorable. I am sad that Icahn’s performance has been so awful in recent years. The stock was $144/share in 2013 and is now $10.6. The stock is -48% over the past year.
Snap sued by New Mexico AG over ‘sextortion’ of kids by predators
Advertiser exodus from X gathers pace with 26% ‘planning to cut spending’
NYC landlord case shows equal justice is a joke under DA Alvin Bragg
Chin is in trouble because he allegedly “pummeled” a violent vagrant who went at him with a wooden club that had a nail sticking out of it. I feel criminals need to face consequences for crimes and those protecting themselves should not be held accountable for defending themselves.
Feds raid home of NYPD Commish Edward Caban, other close Adams allies
Unhinged nut randomly punching people in NYC mall is stabbed by victim: ‘Punched the wrong person’
FBI reveals alleged Apalachee HS shooter Colt Gray, 14, was probed over 2023 school shooting threats
Another failure by the FBI. The alleged shooter’s father was arrested. He bought him an AR-15 and the boy’s mother was a drug addict. Also sounds as though he was bullied in school.
Suspect accused of shooting 2 Phoenix police officers has lengthy criminal record
NYC river water floods into Queens Midtown Tunnel, snarling traffic and terrifying drivers
The vast majority of dog owners care more about their pet’s health & happiness than their own
Researchers found 747 kinds of heat-resistant microbes flourishing in microwaves. Moral of the story=CLEAN your microwaves.
Florida ranked most fun state to visit in U.S., new study shows
I do not agree with the study based on the factors of weather, beach quality, fitness centers, arts, scenic views, attractions, golf…
EU faces fertility crisis: Births hit record low
Think of the ramifications in Japan, China, EU… with aging populations and crashing birth rates. The implications are serious.
Why The Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been So Quiet Recently
The predictions were for 17-25 named storms and we have 5 so far.
Real Estate
I am spending more time in Palm Beach and did some research about housing. There are approximately 2,300 homes and 6,000 condos on Palm Beach Island. Much of the housing market is older and, as of a few years ago, the median age home was built in 1971. Finding a newer home on the island is challenging and expensive. As of today, the Multiple Listing Service shows 7 homes for sale on the island that were built in 2023 or 2024 that are currently listed for sale. For perspective, in my community of 750 homes in Boca Raton, there are 10 homes for sale that have been built since 2023. The Palm Beach Island homes available today range in price from $15.7 to $45mm. What does $15.7mm get you on the island? It is a lot of 8,999 sq feet with 4,001 ft of living space, 4 beds and 4.5 baths. It is on the north side of the island, but you can walk to the beach. What does $45mm get you? An 18,661 ft lot with a 13,353 ft home. The house has 6 beds and 8.5 baths and is under construction (2025). It is more centrally located and walking distance to the beach. My point is, there is very limited quality inventory on the market in Palm Beach and you pay a big premium to buy there. The house at 1090 S. Ocean will be amazing when done.
I have written extensively about high end product being in limited supply, especially new builds. One of the most sought after addresses in Miami Beach is N. Bay Road. Many huge names own or have lived there, including Sternlicht, Gerber/Crawford, Orlando Bravo, Barry Diller, Matt Damon, J. Lo, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Gabe Plotkin, Ricky Martin, Alex Rodriguez, Phil Collins, Barry Gibb, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Shakira and many others. There have been no brand-new home sales on N. Bay Road in almost 4 years, but that changed in the past week. A home listed for $80mm went pending. I believe it sold for over $70mm to a very well-known athlete. The 9 bed/13 bath home is 12,552 ft and on a .58-acre lot. Although the home is stunning, as can be seen in the link, the views of downtown are not as strong as some of the other lots on the street. My point is simple-the lower end market has become challenging, especially older condos, as I have discussed. However, the high end remains in high demand and 4736 N. Bay Road is another example of it.
Another condo/hotel is close to default. Check out the Tweet below regarding the Mandarin Oriental Beverly Hills.
Other R/E Headlines
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #715 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
