Mahi-Mahi Time
9-11-24
Opening Comments
My last piece was about protecting your credit by “freezing” your accounts at the credit reporting agencies due to the recent massive data breach. The most opened links were Bill Ackman on the US debt crisis and the story of Andreessen Horowitz closing its South Beach offices.
Today is the anniversary of the horrific terrorist attacks from September 11, 2001. I was in NYC working at 270 Park Avenue and remember it like it was yesterday. My thoughts go out to the families who lost loved ones. This link has pictures from that horrific day. Let’s never forget it.
I took Jack to look at a college over the weekend and rented a Mitsubishi Outlander. I went to put gas in it and could not get the cover to the gas tank opened. I frantically searched for a lever by the driver’s seat and there was nothing. I went online and it suggested there was a lever by the driver’s seat, but there was nothing. When I pushed on the gas cover, it slightly opened, but would not fully release. I was there for 15 minutes and finally another patron asked, “Are all your doors unlocked? You need them unlocked to open the gas tank.” Well, I hit the “unlock” button and the gas door opened when I pushed it. Yes, it was embarrassing. Hopefully, my woes prevent it from happening to you.
Markets
The State of America’s Wallet
The High Tax State Brain Drain
Will Musk Become a Trillionaire?
Discounted LA Mansion Sold for 76% Off
Housing Affordability
Multifamily Insurance Issues
Hamptons Affordable Housing Project
Other R/E Headlines
Video of the Day-Japanese Children/Diet
This is an amazing short video outlining the independence of Japanese children from a young age as well as the balanced diets in schools. Kids walk to school ALONE from a very young age in Japan. Japanese schools also have a unique approach to nutrition. By law, every school employs a professional nutritionist who has undergone rigorous training, including three years of study beyond becoming a teacher. These nutritionists design meals that are entirely free of processed foods, with each meal prepared from scratch daily. Japan has fewer overweight children than any other developed nation due to healthy school lunches. Japanese children are obese at a rate of 3.3%, while in the US over 20%. In the US, poor nutrition, lack of physical activity and genetic factors play the largest role in childhood obesity. For adults, 7.6% of the Japanese are obese, while 41.6% of Americans are in that designation.
Mahi-Mahi Time
In South Florida when the weather is warmer, Mahi-mahi are among the most prevalent fish. Mahi-mahi is from the Hawaiian language and means “very strong.” They light up in the water with green, yellow and blue colors and look stunning for the first minute or two out of the water. I left the dock at 6:20 am on Tuesday with my friend, Derren, on what started off as a beautiful morning. The winds were out of the southeast, which is ideal.
I decided to head off shore, as I heard that there were fish in the 10-12 mile range from shore. In the spring, I can catch them 1-2 miles from shore. I set the boat on auto pilot with the throttle at 35 mph while we got the rods set up with lures. The goal is to find structure (weeds, floating buckets, lumber, trees, debris…), as bait fish hide from the birds under it and bigger fish come looking for the bait fish. We also look for birds diving which is a good sign bigger fish will be around. We did not see anything until 10 miles out when we saw some weeds and started trolling. Within minutes we were hooked up on small Mahi. In total, we caught a half dozen Mahi in short order. None of them were huge (4-5 lbs). Below are pictures from various trips, mostly in Boca, other than the massive one which was the Bahamas.
We had fun on light tackle, and the fish jumped and flopped with their beautiful colors. It was a fun and quick session. I eventually saw some storm clouds and when I checked the radar, it did not look good. I decided to drive to shore quickly to be safe. Thankfully, going fast on my boat is not a problem and I gunned it to shore as the sky darkened.
I had hoped for bigger fish like these from former trips, but we had fun and I made a nice dinner with the fresh fish. For one filet I went with olive oil, shallots and garlic; the other was done with breadcrumbs and panko.
Quick Bites
Markets recovered nicely Monday after the worst week of the year, with tech stocks outperforming. The VanEck Semi ETF was smashed last week and was -5% on Monday. However, Tuesday saw a sharp pull back followed by a rally on the heels of the consumer price data showing prices increased by .2% in August. Now, the 12-month inflation rate is 2.5%. After a rough morning session with indices down over 1%, markets rallied back led by tech. The Nasdaq outperformed and was +1.8% late in Wednesday’s trading. The likelihood of a 50bps cut fell post the data. Treasury yields rose on the day with the 2 year+4bps and the 10 year +1bn. Oil has been hit hard and on Tuesday OPEC cut its demand growth forecast again as softening demand in China is weighing on the market. As a result, oil was -4% to $66, the lows since December 2021.
This WSJ Article is entitled, “The State of America’s Wallet,” and had some amazing data and charts. Zooming in on the American wallet is a useful way to understand this moment of unease about the economy, and to think about how our own finances stack up, economists say. The mental anchor point many use to measure themselves against is 2019, because it was pre-pandemic and pre-inflation surge.
Americans make more money than they did at the end of 2019, even after adjusting for unusually high inflation since then.
Americans carried an average of $74 in cash in their wallets and purses in 2023, up from $60 in 2019, according to the Fed.
Americans have racked up more credit-card debt in the past few years, after paying down balances during the early part of the pandemic.
The price of a car and the cost of borrowing money to buy one have shot up since 2019. Homeowners got richer.
A surge in prices raised the net worth of both longtime homeowners and millennials who lucked into great timing.
Interesting WSJ Opinion piece entitled, “The High-Tax State Brain Drain.” I have written about this topic extensively. I am not in full agreement with the article. Yes, young, wealthy people are leaving high tax states in droves for low tax states, but I do not believe taxes are the strongest driver. When you look at quality of life, cost of living, crime policy/safety, weather, taxes, illegal immigration, woke teachings, homelessness… it gives you a fuller picture. The #1 reason why I left NYC 7 years ago was not taxes, as outlined below. The hardest hit states losing 26-35 year olds who made at least $200k in 2022 were CA, IL, MA, NY, & PA, while the biggest influx was into FL, TX, TN, & NV. I do agree with the article that the wealth migration will place a larger burden on those who stay. Taxes are a part of the issue, but not the driving force in my opinion. Good CNBC article on the subject.
There are multiple stories suggesting that Musk could be the 1st trillionaire. He is currently worth almost $250bn according to Forbes. If you are asking me if a trillion is in the art of possible, the answer is yes. If you are asking me if I think it happens, the answer is no. For perspective, in 1982, Forbes had Daniel Keith Ludwig as the wealthiest person in the world with a net worth of $2bn. My have times changed. This is a great link that shows what it took to be the world’s wealthiest each year or decade for the past 100 years adjusted for inflation.
2024 Election
If you recall, I crushed Biden after his debate performance and made it clear he needed to drop out of the race. Trump won that debate because Biden imploded. On Tuesday night, the fiery debate had a clear winner and it was Kamala Harris. She was composed and prepared, while Trump continued to “take the bait,” while not capitalizing on key opportunities time after time. Harris exceeded low expectations. When Kamala suggested people walk out of Trump rallies, he spent too much time arguing against that assertion in front of almost 58mm viewers. As a result, Trump ranted and defended his ego rather than attacking Harris on her performance as a VP and her flip-flopping on major issues. Also contributing to the Kamala crushing of Trump were the moderators, who continually favored Harris in the lopsided show. Muir fact checked everything Trump said and nothing of what Harris said. The moderators were blatantly biased. Harris hurt Trump on abortion, race and his constant lies. Trump did have a good response on the Biden Administration’s handling of Afghanistan and the border, but I feel he fell flat overall and was too negative. Neither candidate addressed many of the tougher questions. This debate went to Kamala and the betting odds moved sharply by the end of the show. Also of note, Trump Media shares fell 16% on Wednesday morning. The folks who prepped Kamala deserve a sizeable cash bonus, while Trump’s debate prep team should be fired! Remember, these elections take twists and turns. Trump looked unbeatable after the Biden debate and the assassination attempt and now Kamala looks stronger. There are 54 days until the election which is an eternity. Harris won this battle but the war for the presidency is far from over.
I was texting with a couple dozen readers during the debate (Republicans and Democrats) and some of the texts are below the betting odds. Below are stories from NY Post, CNN, NPR, Fox and CNBC on their takes on the debate.
Trump rattled as well-prepped Harris gets help from ABC debate moderators: ‘3 on 1’
Takeaways from the ABC presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
The debate between Harris and Trump wasn’t close — and 4 other takeaways
In the Trump-Harris faceoff there was a clear winner but don't believe this election is over
Presidential debate recap: Harris attacks Trump over abortion, immigration, crimes
After keeping it vague for weeks, presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has finally published an “issues” section on her campaign website. On the eve of her debate with Trump, the vice president emphasized middle-class tax cuts, action on price gouging, support for the bipartisan border deal, and access to abortion. But Harris has left out plenty of details.
New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August
Trump surges 14 points with independents, Latinos shift 19 points in ex-prez’s favor
Such a policy will only attract more border crossers. Too many cities are over run with people from bad border policies. Bad idea.
She has flipped on so many issues, I do not know what her plans are if she were to win. She has changed her stance on the border, fracking, health care, immigration, taxes and many other things in recent weeks. Is the move towards the center a ploy to get more votes or a head fake so she can go back to her time as the “2nd most progressive senator behind Warren?”
House GOP releases scathing report on Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan
350-page report calls out State Dept for failing to have evacuation plan despite clear warning signs.
Israel/Middle East
I went to a Douglas Murray speech on Sunday night in Fort. Lauderdale. It was a moving discussion of his time reporting from Israel and Gaza. He is an amazing journalist and news reporter. He is on tour across the country sharing his powerful experiences during his time in the Middle East on the heels of the Hamas Massacre. He interviewed many people on the ground and has some moving video and impressive takeaways. Despite not being a Jew, he has been a big supporter of Israel and Jews with amazing reporting of events. He has also called out many other journalists for their biased views against Israel.
PGA Tour player and Rosen Report reader and contributor is hosting a charity event to fund the Israeli Youth Renewal Fund. I have never seen better golf related auction items with some of the world’s best golf courses (Friar’s Head, Grove XXIII, Medalist, Riveria, Sebonack, Bear’s Club, Calusa Pines, Dallas National, East Lake, Hudson National, Oakmont, Piping Rock, Sleepy Hollow, Winged Foot and many others). You also get to play with PGA Tour players on some items. Support Max and the cause with the purchase of amazing rounds or lessons from PGA Tour teaching pros.
IDF video shows ‘horrific conditions’ in tunnel where 6 hostages were held, executed
Israel Offers Hamas Leader Safe Exit From Gaza in Bid to End War
I hope they agree and then kill him anyway.
Israel allegedly strikes Syria area believed to house Iran forces; 14 killed, 43 hurt
Greta Thunberg goes full in on Jew-hate because left politics is all one big blob
IDF soldiers believed to have unknowingly consumed drug-laced cookies mysteriously donated to base
Other Headlines
September Is Once Again a Tough Month for Stocks
Wall Street Traders Suddenly Converge on Economic Hazards Ahead
Iron Ore Tumbles Below $90 for the First Time Since Late 2022
Taiwan Exports to US Surpass China Record to Hit Monthly High
European Luxury Shares’ $240 Billion Rout Is Just the Beginning
Gucci-Owner Kering Slumps to 2017 Low on China Demand Fears
JPMorgan Chase shares drop 7% after bank tempers guidance on interest income and expenses
Jamie Dimon says ‘the worst outcome is stagflation,’ a scenario he’s not taking off the table
Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulations in victory for Wall Street
Nvidia stock sell-off is overdone, Goldman Sachs analyst says
Oracle reports better-than-expected quarterly results; shares rise
Palantir soars 14% on software vendor’s inclusion in S&P 500
Apple must pay 13 billion euros in back taxes, EU’s top court rules
Apple announces iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4 and more
Personally, the more recent series of products has been disappointing to me. I am not going to be rushing out to buy anything new unless readers tell me there is something amazing.
Huawei’s tri-fold phone gets 2.7 million pre-orders ahead of Apple’s iPhone 16
I do not like my iPhone, but my family and friends have them, which allows us to Facetime, otherwise I would switch.
The $100,000 electric truck market is here. A guide to pickups from Tesla, GM, Rivian and Ford
My neighbor just bought the TSLA truck and loves it. Has had no issues despite the horrific press on the vehicle.
House Speaker Johnson pulls government funding bill after GOP support collapses
I thought this was an interesting chart sent around by Elon Musk
Getting a rental car, getting on a plane, picking up tickets at will-call, buying a drink, opening a bank account, renting an apartment, or even applying for jobs all requires an ID. Why are people suggesting we should not need one to vote?
As the IRS targets wealthy Americans for audits, here are red flags for everyday filers
Harvard nutritionist: The No. 1 ultra-processed food I never buy—and what I eat instead
This could increase your risk of Alzheimer’s disease more than anything
Landlord agrees to sell Colorado apartment complex at center of Venezuelan gang problem
Policies have consequences and our border policy is idiotic, dangerous and expensive. Watch these attached videos from residents of a small community that have been overrun with immigrants.
That’s ill-eagle: Two Nebraska men charged after killing bald eagle to eat
Two Honduran nationals believed to be illegal migrants were arrested in Nebraska on Tuesday after gunning down a North American bald eagle with the intention of cooking and eating it.
"It's A Crazy Story": Illegal Alien MS-13 Gangster Kills Girl, Then Enrolls In Maryland High School
He was sentenced to 70 years in prison.
Large Palestinian flag unfurled on Williamsburg Bridge during rush hour
In Baltimore in recent years: Zero students at 23 public schools were math proficient. At some high schools, the average GPA was less than 0.13.
Baltimore spends $23,137 per student. How are we spending so much on students and getting such horrific results? This link shows spending per student by state.
Chicago enacts citywide hiring freeze to address 2025 budget gap
Wait, the overly woke city that is crime ridden and forced out much of the wealth and great companies is having financial difficulty? Who would have thought it possible? I am from Chicago and do not believe I will ever go back again.
Why Las Vegas might be the hottest family destination in America right now
Tom Brady’s Broadcast Debut Divides Fans: “Absolutely Atrocious”
I am a big Brady fan and believe he is the clear GOAT. However, in the 30 minutes of the broadcast I watched, I was underwhelmed with Brady. Don’t count him out, but he has a long way to go to deserve that pay.
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott becomes highest-paid player in NFL history
I have been writing about skyrocketing salaries. How does $60mm/year sound for ZERO Super Bowl titles. He is 2-5 in playoffs. For perspective, Aaron Rodgers salary is $37.5mm. Peyton Manning’s peak salary was $18mm a dozen years ago. Tom Brady’s peak salary was $44mm in 2021.
Despite all the success for the Chiefs, they do not make a lot of extra money from the NFL for playoffs/Super Bowls as a franchise. I had no idea. In the NBA and NHL, the teams get a larger share for the post season.
Tyreek Hill tells CNN he’s still shell-shocked after being detained by police ahead of NFL game
Real Estate
I thought this story of a house once listed for $100mm was interesting, as it just sold for $26mm in Bel Air. The Chalon Road mansion includes multiple bar spaces, a theater, wine cellar, putting green, enough parking for 60 cars, sport court and infinity pool, per marketing materials for the property when it was relisted for $65 million last year. Everyone needs a 41,000 foot house with 21 bathrooms, a full NBA court, and a 36 person theater. Think of what it costs to furnish, clean, maintain that beast. Over the last seven years, the house alternated on and off the market, each time with a reduced price. Don Bolin paid $1.2 million for the site in 2012, according to property records, and then spent the next five years building the property. These $100mm+ properties are so risky with so few buyers. The LA County tax laws have crushed R/E sales as well as the crime and quality of life in much of CA. Pictures in this link.
Good FT article, “Make Homes Affordable Again.” The article cites housing prices that are 25% higher than 2006 levels (seems too low to me). The article suggests household income has doubled since the year, 2000, but the average price of a home has tripled to $360k.
The U.S. multifamily and industrial real estate sectors are seeing stricter insurance terms after record losses in 2023. Increasing costs: In 2023, U.S. housing construction hit a 36-year high with 440,000 new apartments completed. Of those, 81% (356,400 units) were wood-framed, a material long considered higher risk by insurers due to its susceptibility to fire. With $10.8 billion in fire damages last year, insurers are increasingly reluctant to cover multifamily properties, driving liability insurance rate hikes of 10% to 20% for portfolio operators. Although many apartment complexes are doing well, rising taxes, insurance and maintenance costs coupled with higher interest rates are definitely hurting profitability despite higher rents.
The Hamptons have become so expensive and one major issue is finding workers who can live close enough to get to work given the horrific traffic. If you work in a restaurant, retail or maintenance work, or as a school teacher or fireman, it is very hard to afford to live anywhere close to your workplace. This article is entitled, “Hamptons Restaurants Embrace Plan for $850,000 Worker Apartments,” and is worth a read for all you Hamptonites. The average Hamptons home now costs nearly $3.3 million, up more than 40% from a year ago, according to appraiser Miller Samuel & brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.
Other R/E Headlines
Luxe homes worth $10M-plus soar in Palm Beach, Miami and New York despite global dip
Sales of homes priced $10mm or more spiked 44% in Palm Beach and 27% in Miami. NYC saw a 16% increase.
US Housing Market Hit by Shrinkflation
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #716 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.