A "Hairy" Situation

12-15-24

Opening Comments

My last note was about the crisis in healthcare and insurance in America. The most opened links were the video of the dancing high school kid made of rubber and the Rosen Report healthcare survey. I will be sending hats to random people who participated in the survey. In an upcoming report, I will share the results of the survey.

I got gas the other day and saw $2.89/gallon. I drove in and that was the cash price. Generally credit is +10c. This was +.90c. I never saw such a differential.

I have been asked why I have not sent around fishing pictures recently. This should address those questions. Seas have been brutal.

• Video of the Day-Interview of NYC Candidate for Mayor-Whitney Tilson

• A Hairy Situation

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • Cutting Bank Regulators?

  • $439 BN Man Buying Condo in WPB?

  • My Least Favorite Animals

• Election/Politics

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Real Estate

  • Rupert Murdoch NYC Condo Sale at Big Discount

  • Santa Monica Homeless Units for $1mm

  • NYC Office Market Rebounding

  • Gen Z Driving Mall Traffic

  • Lauder $56mm Hamptons Land Sale

Video of the Day-Interview of NYC Candidate for Mayor-Whitney Tilson

Thursday, I interviewed Whitney Tilson who threw his name in the ring for NYC Mayor. I asked hard-hitting questions on all the topics you would want to know. I left NYC in 2017 because I felt the city was going in the wrong direction under DeBlasio. The once great city of NY has become far more challenging due to horrific policies on crime, immigration, homelessness, regulations, rent laws, squatters’ rights, cost of living, weed, taxes, and many other factors. We can all agree on one thing; NYC is not what it once was, and we need to make changes to bring it back. Whitney had some interesting statistics about NYC, and the video is worth a look. Regardless of who you vote for, do your homework about the candidates who are willing to make tough decisions to bring NYC back. Only 21% of registered voters cast ballots for mayor in 2021. Don’t complain if you don’t vote. I do feel Whitney has moved closer to the center and has some good ideas.

A “Hairy” Situation

For as long as I can remember, my hair has been my calling card. I have countless photos over the years with my flowing locks as the center of attention.

When I was on Wall Street, I was known as the “guy with the great hair.” My business partner, Bryan Weadock, also had an amazing head of hair, but it was always clearly second best to my flow. When we would address our teams on stage in auditoriums, I am convinced there have never been two better heads of hair speaking together in the history of Wall Street.

Sadly, my reign as “King Do” is coming to a crashing halt. It is only a matter of time until I cede (pun intended) my thrown to Byran. I had a bad bout of COVID a few years ago and lost hair. It grew back but caused me to write about the great “hair scare.” In the past month or so, I have noticed some thinning, something I thought was IMPOSSIBLE. I was certain I would die with my full head of hair. I was sitting on the couch the other day, and my daughter said, ‘Oh my. Dad, you are losing your hair.” The ultimate insult. She is now out of my will.

I went to the dermatologist on Tuesday and told the doctor about my concerns. She looked at my hair with a magnifying glass and said the dreaded words, “Male pattern…” and stopped. I looked at her and said, “Are you telling me I have male pattern baldness?” She replied, “Yes. You have early stages on your forehead and on top of your head. I am seeing clear signs of thinning hair follicles.”

I was apoplectic. How can this happen to me? I am in a state of shock. I am now on Minoxidil foam for my hair and a pill. I refuse to do a comb-over or plugs. I promise no wigs. I will shave my head bald if the medicine does not prevent my hair loss.

I will go out fighting, but if the battle cannot be won, I will go Kojak. I fear the days of showing off my flowing locks are coming to a close, so I will enjoy it while it lasts. In an effort to see the silver lining in what I feel is a tragic situation, I will be spending far less on those expensive hair products if the meds don’t work. Jack and Julia, I apologize.

Quick Bites

• Wholesale prices (PPI) rose .5% in November relative to .2% estimate. Stocks sold off on the news, but the market still believes a 25bps cut is coming. On the week, the S&P was down .7% and the Nasdaq +.3%. Treasuries sold off and the 10-year is back up to 4.4% after hitting 4.12% one week ago. I thought the chart below was interesting on the history of bubbles. No, I do not believe there is impending doom coming. I do feel the animal spirits are alive and well post-election, but thought the chart was interesting. I feel this article about “Pent-Up Demand” for M&A is spot on. Lena Khan was a deal killer and Trump will have major deal flow in the coming years. Bitcoin hit a new high of almost $104k and settled around $102k. I hope we see a bit of a pull-back on crypto after an epic run, as we have seen previously. However, I do feel the Trump administration is incredibly supportive of the space and can see Bitcoin sharply higher over the next 18 months. The House Financial Services Committee selected French Hill (pro crypto) as the chairman. French Hill can be heard here. Oil is hoovering around $71/barrel. If the Middle East situation continues in the right direction, we can see another dip. However, sanctions on Russia and Iran are keeping prices higher than they might otherwise be today.

  

  

• Government regulations have become too big of a burden at the city, state and federal levels. The Biden Administration has added a great deal of cost to the system through regulations. However, this WSJ story, “Trump Advisers Seek to Shrink or Eliminate Bank Regulators,” is a bit concerning. The Trump transition team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate the top bank watchdogs in Washington. In recent interviews with potential nominees to lead bank regulatory agencies, Trump advisers and officials from his newfound Department of Government Efficiency have, for example, asked whether the president-elect could abolish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., people familiar with the matter said. Any proposal to eliminate the FDIC or any agency would require congressional action. While past presidents have reorganized and rebranded departments, Washington has never shut down a major cabinet-level agency and rarely closed other agencies like the FDIC that are not. Bank executives are optimistic that President-elect Donald Trump will ease a host of regulations on capital cushions and consumer protections, as well as scrutiny of consolidation in the industry. I am all for cutting burdensome regulations and shrinking the government, but bank regulators are important to protect depositors and prevent banks from being hedge funds. Yes, there are onerous capital requirements at banks that need to be cut back, but I fear the elimination of bank regulators will have unintended consequences. I am sure every agency can be smaller, more efficient and effective. Go DOGE!

• Elon Musk’s net worth has reached over $439 billion. Behind his nearly $20 billion jump in wealth was a deal that shot up Musk’s rocket company SpaceX’s valuation to roughly $350 billion, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. SpaceX and its investors agreed to purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares. Since the aftermath of the 2024 US presidential election, Musk has enjoyed a huge surge in his personal wealth (doubled). An alliance with President-elect Donald Trump has pushed his ventures to the forefront. Musk is the chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, as well as the owner of X and CEO of other ventures, including Neuralink, xAI and the Boring Company. Tesla shares closed at a record high on Friday, hitting $436 at market close. Musk, who is Tesla’s largest individual shareholder. Let’s put Musk’s net worth into perspective. The median net worth in America is $192k making Musk’s $439bn almost 2.3mm times more than the median. Elon, I am available to be adopted…or just cut me into your will.

  • Elon Musk’s Potential $100 Million Condo Purchase Would Be a Boon to West Palm Beach, Florida. The rumored condo is in the Bristol in West Palm Beach and was purchased for $42mm in 2019. The center of the universe has moved to South Florida.

    

    

• As a surfer, I do not like sharks. They also eat a lot of the fish I try to catch when I am on my boat. I would say sharks are my least favorite animal. A close second is a reptile called the iguana, which is not indigenous to South Florida but has overtaken the area. Iguanas eat plants and crap all over the place. They seem to eat some kind of red seed and the result is horrible on my pool tiles. The good news is, cold weather freezes these horrible animals. When it gets cold, they fall out of trees.

Election/Politics

• Few Americans approve of Hunter Biden pardon

• The NY Times finally tells the truth about Biden’s border failures — AFTER the election

  • “The immigration surge of the past few years has been the largest in US history”, and “the Biden administration’s policy appears to have been the biggest factor.” A little late. No?

• Biden commutes roughly 1,500 sentences and pardons 39 people in biggest single-day act of clemency

• Days After Trump's Victory, Biden-Harris Admin Granted Iran $10 Billion in Sanctions Relief, Congressional Notice Shows

  • WHY? Iran hates Israel, the US and the West. Iran is responsible for massive terror organizations. Trump will make this right.

• Biden admin quietly clears away border wall parts for auction ahead of Trump’s second term

  • Trump was right about building a wall and was vilified for it. We would be in a better place if the Democrats did not block the wall during Trump’s term.

• Trump assassination attempt was "preventable," House panel finds

• Nancy Pelosi hospitalized after she ‘sustained an injury’ from fall on official trip to Luxembourg

• The San Diego County Board of Supervisors just voted 3-1 to turn the county into a "super" sanctuary county by shielding illegals from deportation and preventing police from notifying ICE about dangerous illegals in custody.

• Trump rings bell at NYSE to cheers of ‘USA’ as Wall Street CEOs, business leaders look on

• Don Lemon rages against Time picking Trump as Person of the Year

• Bernie Sanders Proposes Taxing Income Over $1 Billion At 100% And Urges It's Time To Make 'Greedy Billionaires' Pay Their Fair Share

  • My issue with obscene taxes is the fact that the government is the single worst steward of capital on the planet. The Federal government wastes TRILLIONS. Until they can control spending and waste, stop talking about idiotic tax plans. Think of the innovation that would stop with Bernie’s idiotic policies. Just think, this clown was almost President.

• Trump pledges GOP effort to eliminate daylight saving time

  • I love this idea.

• ABC News, George Stephanopoulos agree to apologize to Trump, pay $16M in defamation case settlement

• Harvard president privately tells faculty university needs to rethink messaging after GOP victory

  • Wait. Is this an Ivy League school that is actually trying to become more balanced?

Middle/East

• Iran's Khamenei says toppling of Syria's Assad was result of US-Israeli plan

• The Biden Admin just released a senior Hamas terrorist, 16 years into a 20 year sentence, without securing the release of a single American hostage held in Gaza.

  • The foreign policy decisions of the Biden Administration have been awful.

• Israel preparing blitz on ‘isolated & weak’ Iran’s nuke bases after wiping out Assad’s military in wave of 480 strikes

• You MUST listen to this short speech by Douglas Murray about Jewish hostages. So true and so troubling about society.

• Gaza death toll inflated to promote anti-Israel narrative, study finds

  • I have written about this extensively. I received hate mail for writing about the bias in the death data.

• University of Michigan DEI administrator fired over alleged antisemitic comments plans to take legal action, attorney says

• California DMV apologizes for Cybertruck’s offensive license plate

  • The plate reads “LOLOCT7.” Release the owner’s name and job. They can have their opinion and rational Americans can boycott his firm and be sure he is never hired again.

    

Other Headlines

• A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

  • China has never lied. The Chinese government ALWAYS tells the truth about everything from Covid, the Chinese economy, the treatment of it citizens and everything in between. It would be shocking to find out they manipulated economic data. Yes, I am being sarcastic.

• Klarna Stopped All Hiring a Year Ago to Replace Workers With AI

  • Headcount is -22% and 20 people use AI for their core work. Over the next 10 years, how many jobs will be replaced by AI, self-driving cars, and robots?

• Egg prices may soon ‘flirt with record highs,’ supplier says. Here’s why

  • Bird flu coupled with high holiday demand is sending egg prices soaring.

• Broadcom stock jumps 21%, pushing company past $1 trillion market cap for the first time

• OpenAI emails show Elon Musk wanted for-profit structure in 2017

  • I feel Musk should be given ownership in Open AI for funding early.

  • OpenAI whistleblower found dead in San Francisco apartment

• Shipping giant Maersk expects strong demand and ‘another year of disruption’ for global trade in 2025

• Luigi Mangione, accused UnitedHealthcare CEO killer, was never a client of the insurance company: NYPD chief

• Florida mom arrested for saying ‘Delay Deny Depose’ on call with BlueCross BlueShield health insurer: ‘You people are next’

• McDonald's Workers Who Identified Luigi Mangione Get Private Security

  • What is wrong with people? The ones who turned in the accused murderer are heroes and may have prevented other deaths. However, they are being vilified for calling the police on a murderer. The world has gone mad.

• UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination Could Spark "Next Wave" Of "Occupy Wall Street 2.0," Warns Security Expert

  • There are wanted posters across Manhattan of insurance company CEOs.

• Luigi Mangione 'considered BOMBING Manhattan and penned sick to-do list before shooting healthcare CEO'

• “This Is a Warning”: Elizabeth Warren Reacts to UHC Shooting

• Stranger beats and rapes woman after following her in brutal NYC attack

• Capitol Police top cop caught cheating on timesheets, got promoted anyway

  • Why not get fired for stealing? Promoted?

• Mayor Adams, NYPD brass visited underground homeless wasteland inside NYC subways — and what they found is surprising

• Two-Hour NYC Tunnel Ordeal Shows Limits of Aging Subway System

  • How many reasons are there not to take a subway? Crime, homelessness, stench, and now two-hour delays?

• Twin real estate millionaires Oren and Alon Alexander, charged with serial rape, wear suicide vests to court

  • The stories going around go back decades. Very troubling.

• 3 men accuse Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs of drugging and raping them at NYC hotels

• Angry Subaru driver crashes car through dealership window after claiming he was denied refund: ‘Hit a breaking point’

• Crystal Mangum confesses to lying about being raped by Duke lacrosse players

  • Her lies ruined the lives of many nearly 20 years ago.

• Michelin stars shine bright in NYC: Manhattan dominates fine dining awards

• NY’s bogus legal costs hit a staggering $89B, as NYC ranked second-worst ‘judicial hellhole’ in US

• Food Stamps Accepted At Thousands Of Liquor And Tobacco Stores, Contributing To Healthcare Fiasco

  • Nearly 5,000 stores with words related to “liquor” or “tobacco” in their names accept food stamps.

• Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990

• People are living longer — But spending more time in poor health

• Incurable, 'highly contagious' STD affects nearly 900 million people under age 50

• Arkansas Rolls Out Pilot Program to Test Cellphone Ban in Schools

• I build doomsday bunkers for rich & famous – Brits are forking out TRIPLE in past fortnight alone for terrifying reason

• Belichick Agrees to $50 Million Deal With UNC, Athletic Says

  • Great coach. I just do not think his style is suited for college athletes.

• NJ drone mystery deepens as Pentagon denies flying objects are coming from Iran or any other ‘foreign entity or adversary’

  • White House security official dismisses NJ drone sightings — here’s what he claims they really are

  • Drones, planes or UFOs? Americans abuzz over mysterious NJ sightings

  • Unidentified drones sighted over U.S. air base in Germany, Spiegel reports

    • Aliens. I live in Boca and want to be abducted so I can write about it. IF you abduct me, let me take my new iPhone with a fancy camera and let me snap some photos. If your planet can help me grow my hair, all the better.

• Greece’s ghost towns offer a glimpse of a country struggling with ‘existential’ population collapse

• Crowned youngest world chess champ, teen prodigy eyes 'greatness'

• Launch code for US nuclear arsenal was ‘00000000’ until 1977

  • For 15 years, from the Cuban Missile Crisis through much of the Cold War, the launch codes safeguarding some of America’s nuclear missiles were distressingly simple: eight zeroes. This astonishing fact remained a well-kept secret until Bruce Blair, a former Air Force launch officer and nuclear policy expert, disclosed it in the 2010s. The reality, as he and many others attested, exposes the uncomfortable truth about the fragility of nuclear safeguards prior to 1977. This just does not seem possible.

• A crash in Texas involving a $400,000 McLaren killed two men after the luxury car was split in two.

  

Real Estate

• After a dizzying two years on and off the market and numerous price chops, Rupert Murdoch has finally sold his penthouse in New York’s Flatiron District to an as-yet-unidentified buyer for a speck under $24 million. The Fox News and News Corp owner bought the triplex at the One Madison tower in 2014 for a whopping $43 million, which means he took a stunning $20 million loss on the property, not counting carrying costs, improvement expenses and real estate fees. The nonagenarian billionaire originally aimed for a much higher (and profitable) sum when he first listed the apartment in 2022 for $62 million. Alas, failing to find an interested party at that sky-high price, the media magnate’s mansion in the sky received several price chops. It was last discounted in June to its final ask of $28.5 million. If you spent $43 million on multiple South Florida homes in 2014, their value would now be at least $100 million – and potentially $150 million or more if you made the right choices.

• I love the DOGE project by Elon and Vivek. The amount of government waste is staggering. The rocket scientist politicians in CA continue to amaze me with their stupidity. The city of Santa Monica is spending $123 million on building affordable/homeless housing (122 units) near the beach. The build cost of a Four Seasons hotel is ~$650,000 per key. Can someone tell me why CA runs massive deficits with the highest taxes in the country?

• Very positive article about NYC office space. I spoke with a Class A office owner who told me in recent weeks activity has picked up sharply with multiple tenants looking for large space. Legendary CBRE dealmaker Mary Ann Tighe crystallized the situation on a recent podcast, saying, “If you are a tenant of 100,000 square feet or greater, you should have done your deal already. By the time we get to 2027, you’re going to have a problem.” Every time we call for the death of NYC, it bounces back.

• Interesting article about Gen Z desire to shop in person that is helping malls make a comeback. I went to Aventura last week in Miami and was shocked at how crowded it was. The saleswoman at Adidas told me 70% of the shoppers were Hispanic. Gen Z plans to shop more in stores than online this holiday season, too. Nearly 63% of Gen Z respondents said they plan to make holiday purchases at physical stores, according to an annual survey by consulting firm EY. Only about 50% said they would make purchases on retailers’ websites and apps during the season, lower than any other generation besides baby boomers.

• Ron Lauder sold his 30-acre Wainscott (Hamptons) waterfront estate back to the town for $56m. The original ask was $66mm. The preservation fund does a great job of buying land to prevent development.

  © 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #743 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.