The Art of Cooking (and Pool Lights)
12-18-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about my sudden and concerning hair loss. The most opened links were the CA DMV apology for the “LOLOCT7” license plate and the concerning article about the STD affecting 900 million people under age 50 (herpes). I also interviewed Whitney Tilson (NYC mayor candidate) and the video is here.
We are in Mexico for a few days at the Banyan Tree in Mayakoba. If readers are there, let me know and you can buy me a drink! I will bring a few hats with me in case I see some loyal followers. They have padel at the resort, so you know where to find me.
Again, I want to thank my readers for contributing with ideas and feedback. Many email me at rosenreport@gmail.com with story links or comments. The RR is read in 50 states and 101 countries thanks to 100% word of mouth. Please forward to friends if you find the RR interesting. Also, don’t be shy with feedback on telling me what you enjoy or don’t care for on content, as it helps me consider what to include. Remember to hit, “View entire message,” as many servers truncate the report.
I watched the two hour interview by Bari Weiss of Marc Andreessen and found it powerful. Marc is one of the biggest names in venture investing and a lifelong Democrat who flipped to support Trump. His reasons for the shift and his experience with the Biden Administration are among the most damning I have heard. Please watch this video at 1.5x speed. Andreessen is extremely bright, covers all the topics you want to know, and now spends half his time at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. The center of the universe has shifted to South Florida. More of the Ultra High Net Worth population has moved to South Florida or has a home between Miami and Jupiter today than ever before, and the high-end migration has increased post-election. I have had calls with numerous people reconsidering moving down in the past month.
I often talk about inflation and the ridiculous cost of things since the pandemic. 9 out of 10 of my pool lights went out and the pool man (Kevin) dared to tell me they are $750/each and $250/each to install. I installed all 10 given the one good one probably won’t last. The bill was $10k for pool lights. I asked Kevin how much they would have been when I bought the house 7 years ago, and he said half that price. As a result of my spending, I am forcing my readers to look at some pictures of my pool lights as I turn them on four times a year. I need to start amortizing my $10k spend. Please tell me how amazing my pool lights look. I could have bought a car for the cost of 10 lights. As Frank Costanza said on Seinfeld, “Serenity Now. Serenity Now.”
Markets
Tom Lee on 2025 Stocks and Bitcoin
Musk on Deficits
Importance of Friendships Over 50
Office Market Impact on Regional Banks
Myrtle Beach Hotspot
Realtor.com Top Florida Markets for 2025
Net Worth of Renters vs Homeowners
Pictures of the Day-Healthcare Survey Results
Thank you to the readers who participated in the survey. Many of you are unhappy with your health coverage and what you pay for it. The fact that the young man who killed the healthcare CEO is now viewed as a hero tells you the high level of frustration. Access to doctors and claims administration were big frustrations as well. I have spent hundreds of hours on my health insurance options and am extremely frustrated with coverage and costs. For those that did not fill out the survey and would like to, you can do so here. Some lucky survey participants will receive the most coveted holiday gift ever: the Rosen Report hat. Here are some of the charts:
Recent Cooking Pictures/Kitchen Tips
All my loyal Rosen Report readers know how much I love food. I travel to eat at the best restaurants and often ask to speak with the chefs to learn how they did something. I have created many of my own dishes and feel I can handle myself in the kitchen. I cook or bake almost every day. Here are some of my recent meals over the past two weeks. I cook a lot and mix up what I make across fish, pasta, chicken, turkey, and steak.
My ginger-crusted salmon is shockingly easy and a fan favorite. The key is Dijon mustard and fresh ginger. Meyer lemons are sweet and a great…. Great for entertaining. The lobster with squid ink pasta is a bit complicated but doable. Lemon, lemon zest, white wine, tomato paste, cherry tomatoes, and basil make the dish with the sauteed lobster.
I like to make meatballs and when I do, I make 60-70 of them. I freeze it so when I am out, the family can just heat it up. I make a lot of the tomato sauce the meatballs cook in and use the overage for a marinara for my pasta or lasagna. If I do not make the pasta myself, I get it from Eataly. The pasta from Italy is so much better and has only a few ingredients. The pasta you buy from the US is awful and filled with crap.
The lemon pepper chicken is incredibly easy. My turkey is world-class and so tender. I just made it the other day and it always gets devoured. The fennel crust is always a hit. I also made it with cranberry sauce and cooked the bird over roasted veggies (mini potatoes, onions, garlic, leeks, celery, carrots, and shallots).
Depending on the steak, I may use a cast-iron skillet or hot grill. For the Wagyu ribeye below, I used a skillet with olive oil that I infused with rosemary, thyme, and garlic. I use olive oil in the skillet with fresh rosemary, thyme, and garlic bulbs cooked on low before putting up the heat when I throw the steaks on. I like the steak medium rare and as you can see, the outside is perfectly crusted and the inside is tender. Easiest to do this on a skillet. My skirt steak is always on the grill. If the steaks are very thick, I will reverse-sear them in the oven for 20-30 minutes on 275 on rack before searing in the skillet.
I bake bread, cookies, brownies, muffins, and other things from time to time. I think I have created the nearly perfect cookie with my sister’s help. I undercook the cookies so they are soft and chewy. I do not like crispy cookies. Always put the dough in the fridge with chocolate chip cookies as it helps the butter to form so the cookies are thicker. I like 24 hours in the fridge, but even a few hours is better than zero.
I have an organic herb garden at the house with scallions, basil, parsley, thyme, rosemary, cilantro, chives, and tarragon that I use when making my homemade dishes. The issue is much of it dies in the summer. However, the rosemary is indestructible.
Quick Bites
The Dow had a 9-day losing streak through Tuesday and it was the first time it happened since 1978. The Fed cut 25bps on Wednesday but signaled fewer cuts (2) in 2026 sending stocks lower again (-1 to 2%+). The Nasdaq underperformed today. Nvidia stock hit $149 six weeks ago and is now $131. Some articles suggest concerns over AI spending and competition. The 10-year Treasury yield has ticked up from 4.12% on 12/6 to 4.48% today due to the growing realization of only two cuts in 2025, sticky inflation with core CPI at 3.3%, and an increase in European yields. Since the September rate cuts, the 10-year yield is +89bps. The likelihood of a Jan rate cut fell to 11%. Bitcoin rose to new record above $107k before settling at $104k. Do not get fooled by these stupid alt coins like “Fartcoin.” I suggested my readers avoid NFTs and feel the same about dumb coins. Fartcoin hit a market cap of $889mm this week.
Two good articles that outline Tom Lee’s (Fundstrat Managing Partner) views on both stocks and Bitcoin. Lee, who has earned respect on Wall Street for some accurate S&P 500 index calls, has also been one of the stock market’s biggest bulls in recent years. But after two years of back-to-back 20%-plus gains for the index SPX, Lee is taking a more cautious stance for 2025, predicting a climb to 7,000 midyear, but a lower finish of 6,600. That end-year forecast puts Fundstrat’s head of research in the middle of the big bank outlooks that range from 6,400 at UBS to 7,100 at Oppenheimer. Lee lays out the tailwinds he sees for the first half of the year in Fundstrat’s 2025 outlook published late Tuesday. The first is the “Fed put” — the belief among some investors that the Federal Reserve will act to prevent a collapse in the economy or financial markets. As inflation cools, the Fed may shift focus toward supporting employment. Lee projects earnings per share (EPS) growth could reach $275 in 2025 and $300 in 2026, with a weaker dollar providing an additional boost. Lee also feels Bitcoin could hit $250k in 2025.
I have written volumes about my federal debt, deficits, and entitlement concerns over the years. We have been running deficits of almost $2 trillion during full employment, all-time highs in stocks and real estate. The deficits have been over 6% of GDP, unheard of absent a major recession or crisis. The single most important person on the planet and leader of the DOGE project just posted the comments and graph below. The CBO updated its 10-year deficit forecast to be over $22 trillion. The spending is unsustainable. I am hopeful DOGE comes up with savings that Congress will approve. I just do not see how we can go on spending like drunken sailors in perpetuity. The last chart is from the CBO and shows cuts required to balance the budget by 2032. US Federal debt is at $36.3 trillion and climbing fast. Massively underfunded entitlements as well.
I have an interesting perspective on friendships and work/life balance. I worked on Wall Street for my career working long hours between in office and client entertainment. I woke up at 5 am, went to the gym or pool 4-5 days a week, and was in the office by 6:15 am. I would sprint home after work to see my kids and run back out to have client dinners. I found it extremely challenging to see friends, given their full lives with work and family, as well as my own. There could be months that I did not see my closest friends due to busy schedules. I have since moved to Florida, and most of my friends have a far better work/life balance and are available more frequently than friends in NYC. I get texts virtually every day from friends asking to meet for a cup of coffee, drink, dinner, padel, tennis, golf, gym… My friend group in Boca is diverse with investors, musicians, developers, bankers, restauranteurs, family offices… This study shows the importance of friendships. For adults over 50, maintaining close friendships isn’t just about having someone to chat with over coffee – it could be integral to their health and well-being. A new study reveals a stark reality: while 75% of older adults say they have enough close friends, those saying they’re in poor mental or physical health are significantly less likely to maintain these vital social connections. The findings paint a concerning picture of how health challenges can create a cycle of social isolation, potentially making health problems worse. Interesting stats in the link.
Election/Politics
I have heard from numerous friends and readers about post-election deal flow picking up. Real estate deals that were on hold that have since commenced or major hiring that could not get across the finish line but is back on. The “animal spirits” are back and markets are cooperating, especially crypto. I expect M&A activity to be far more robust in 2025 and the Trump Administration to reduce regulatory burdens that stifle business.
Majority of Americans are ready to support Trump and large parts of his agenda, says CNBC survey
Harris debates her future: A run for California governor that would take 2028 off the table
I do not believe in Harris’ ability to win the Presidency in 2028, and there are others who will perform better on the national scale. The Governor of California is a perfect fit for her politics and policies.
Trump loses bid to toss New York hush money conviction on immunity claim
Trump files suit against Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and Des Moines Register newspaper
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy point to DOGE targets
Simplifying the tax code is being discussed. AMAZING. So much waste with the idiotic code. Department of Defense failing audits, Congress $516bn authorized for expired programs, federal workforce (WFH), modernizing government IT systems, and much more.
Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son to announce $100 billion investment in U.S. during visit with Trump
Softbank ill invest $100bn over four years and promise 100k AI related jobs in the US. Trump asked him to double the investment in a fun exchange at the 4:08 mark. Although the headline is nice, I am not convinced there is a lot of new info here and is more promotional than anything else.
House Ethics Committee secretly votes to release Matt Gaetz files on alleged sex misconduct probe
Good. That is the right call. Why not make it public?
Vietnam Won Big in Donald Trump’s First Trade War. Now, It’s a Target.
Israel/Middle East
Israeli jets obliterate Syrian weapon stockpiles in devastating weekend blitz
Candace Owens named ‘Antisemite of the Year’ by StopAntisemitism: ‘Poisonous hater’
Check out the list of NYC private schools in attendance and those part of the organization.
Israel to close embassy in Ireland as it criticizes 'anti-Israel policies'
Columbia adjunct professor resigns after academic who praised October 7 to teach Zionism course
I spoke with a Columbia grad student on Tuesday. He is mortified that he will have a degree from this school. NOTHING could get me to send my children to this Jew hating school and my wife went to Barnard. Do not donate to Columbia.
Other Headlines
Evercore ISI sees more S&P 500 gains next year on Trump and a bull case of 7,400
Food prices are on the rise again. What’s behind the increase
The marginal tax rate in CA is 13.2% and kicks in at $721k. Living in CA cost Zuck over $260mm in 2024 due to his stock sales alone. Mark, move to FL. I will find you a house. Be where the action is in South Florida and save hundreds of millions a year.
YTD Microstrategy stock is +500% YTD and has a market cap approaching $100bn. Bitcoin is +140% YTD. Microstrategy owns 439k BTC worth $46bn.
November Car Loan Rates (APR) in the U.S. for Used and New Cars
Great charts. Good news is new car borrowing rates are down. The 2nd chart kills me. Too many people spending over $1,000/month on cars. This Cox Automotive link shows delinquencies trended in the right direction.
U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019
Amazon and the endangered future of the middle manager
Interesting story about Amazon’s view on middle management and improving efficiency. It could be a script for many companies.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz loses confidence vote, clearing the way for February election
Europe is a mess with Macron under pressure, rise of populist nationalism, economy, Russia/Ukraine, immigration, budget issues, the rising divide between the Right and the Left, and public trust in government institutions at near record lows. France was downgraded by Moody’s as well.
Justin Trudeau 'is on brink of resigning' as his liberal government crumbles
Elderly straphanger injured in random Herald Square subway shove
The shooter was a student at the school. She was fascinated with other school shooters. Her manifesto cites a terrible relationship with parents.
Aurora police chief: Armed apartment invasion 100% gang activity
They found victims TIED UP AND STABBED. Another example of the dangers of open borders. How could anyone ever think this was a good idea?
The CEO of the backpack company alerted the authorities of the brand of the gear the shooter used, and the CEO is now facing backlash from the accused murderer’s supporters for being a snitch. You cannot make this up.
Suspect charged with killing UnitedHealthcare’s CEO as an act of terrorism
GoFundMe pulls all campaigns for Luigi Mangione as donations pour in for his defense
Michael Moore: Anger toward health insurance companies ‘1000% justified’
Study confirms link between cancer and at least 10 popular ultra-processed foods
As Fertility Rates Fall, Some Scientists Say Everyday Chemicals Are a Factor
Yes to Text Messages, No to Video: What Counts as a Will
I was surprised to read this article that outlined that video does not count as a will, but a text message could.
A monster diamond, ancient lipstick and erotic Roman frescoes: 15 remarkable discoveries of 2024
Feds to deploy high-tech system to NY as drone swarms have experts baffled
Robots making lunch deliveries turn heads in Downtown Dallas
Cool technology to deliver food in Dallas.
Google claims quantum chip may prove existence of parallel universes
Why the U.S. government is saying all citizens should use end-to-end encrypted messaging
90-hour-a-week Wall Street bankers snorting lines of Adderall at their desks
Dramatic Video Shows Black Sea Storm Splitting Russian Oil Tanker In Half
Real Estate
Slumping office property values are rippling through US banks, with smaller lenders in particular ramping up the use of loan modifications in their commercial real estate books. The typical bank with less than $100 billion of assets modified 0.32% of its CRE loans in the first nine months of the year, a Moody’s Ratings report found. That’s a big increase from the first half of 2024, when it was just about 0.1%. But it’s also a far lower percentage than other kinds of lenders have modified: for medium-sized banks, the share was 1.93% in the first nine months, and for the biggest, it’s 0.79%, the report found. The difference is probably not because smaller lenders made better loans, but rather, because they have been slower to confront declining commercial property prices.
Interesting WSJ article “Older Americans Are Moving to Myrtle Beach Faster Than Anywhere Else.” On South Carolina’s Atlantic Ocean coast, near North Carolina’s border, is the Myrtle Beach area. The 60-mile stretch, called the Grand Strand, comprises 14 communities. Its center of gravity is the city of Myrtle Beach, a centrally located entertainment hub with a population of around 40,000—a number that greatly swells in the summer. It is also a hot spot for retirees: Between 2020 and 2023, the area had the country’s fastest-growing population of adults aged 65 and older, up 23%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. There is something for every type of buyer: Planned communities with resort amenities; older established neighborhoods; condos or bungalows close to the ocean; Intracoastal Waterway homes and communities; and larger acreages a short drive from the beach.
Realtor.com came out with the top housing markets for 2025 and two Florida metro markets are in the top 10. The link has a lot of data.
This CNN article, “The median renter in America has a net worth of $10,400. The median homeowner’s net worth is $400,000,” shows the importance of home ownership.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #745 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
