Opening Comments
My last note was entitled Delayed Trains and Decapitated Winners covering my bad experience with Brightline trains and the Mayan ruins we explored in Mexico. The most opened links were Mike Cembalest’s (JPM) 2025 outlook and longevity expert advice for a long, healthy life.
Although I write the Rosen Report alone, I have many readers who contribute story ideas. Without them, I would struggle coming up with topics and stories to fill all the sections of this report. On this subject, I finally met one of my biggest contributors, Robert, over lunch in Jupiter on Thursday. We have spoken countless times and have a trove of email traffic. It was nice to meet in person. Of course, he got RR swag. For those who want to contribute, send story ideas to rosenreport@gmail.com. THANK YOU.
My kids went to NYC this weekend and went Chez Fifi on 74th and Lex. It was in my last note about hot new Upper East Side places. Jack had black sea bass while Julia had a chicken dish and both left beaming. The highlight was the bluefin toro with caviar and the salmon appetizer, according to my well-fed children. The potatoes with rosemary was a recipe from the owner’s mother and I am told were the best potatoes ever. The chocolate mousse was a big hit too. Chez Fifi is fully priced, but a great addition to the UES according to my kids.
Markets
Rich Get Richer
Gallop Poll on American Views of 2025
Terror Attack Updates
Rolex Prices
Restaurant Sales of Wine Plummeting
Nine Figure Home Sale Data
Housing Market Supply
House with Virtual Reality Windows
Mortgage Demand Fell Sharply on Higher Rates
Video of the Day-House Frequently Hit By Flying Cars
The video is incredible – it shows speeding cars flying through the air straight into a house. Seems like the drivers are literally going 100 mph. The house in in San Jose, CA and the owner has been hit 23 times since 1972. Many of the drivers were drunk and unable to navigate the highway off ramp.
Two Restaurant Reviews (Miami & Boca)
I have written about all the interesting people I have met through the Rosen Report. I heard from a NYC banker who wanted to get together for dinner with his Wall Street friends, as they are fans of the RR. Clearly, these guys are brilliant. I am suspecting Mensa based our their avid following of the best newsletter of all time. I excitedly agreed to grab a bite with them in Miami at the new hotspot, Sparrow in Wynwood.
First of all, the guys could not have been more fun, and we had a great evening. Thank you for hosting! Although getting down to Miami was a challenge after a delayed train and the worst Uber driver of all time, we made it in one piece.
Sparrow is definitely happening. The ultra cool setting was jam packed. The buildout was very nice (spent many millions), and the scene was a mix of hip and cool and not so much. Unfortunately, they sat us directly in front of the live music making it incredibly loud and a little challenging to converse with my new buds.
We ordered everything to share, and my friends did not skimp on the food. We started with the hamachi with lemon, cucumber, celery, red onion and Italian chili. It was delicious, and I would have had more. The B.I.G. meatball was a half pound A5 wagyu and was solid, even though I prefer meatball blends. I also enjoyed the grilled octopus despite my red pepper allergy. The octopus was tender, which is not an easy task.
For pasta, we had the amazing bone marrow cappelletti, which I felt was the best dish on the menu. The entire table was underwhelmed by both the truffle cacio e pepe (too saucy and heavy) and the pistachio pesto that just missed the mark.
For entrees, we shared the 34 oz prime fiorentina steak that was cooked to perfection (medium-rare) and full of flavor. We also had the chicken parmesan that was good, but not excellent despite being a massive dish.
Overall, despite the acoustic challenges, I had a great night with new friends. The food was good, but disappointed due to elevated expectations. Sit in the back or have a drink at the bar. Do not sit in front of the lively musicians or bring earplugs and throat lozenges as you will need to yell. Will I go back, yes, but Miami has so many amazing choices now, shockingly, I am not sprinting. Sparrow has plenty of competition in 2025. Prices were steep at $300 per person, which included two bottles of wine and drinks.
Ambiance-8 (LOUD, but loved the room)
Food-7.5
Service-8
For my second review, my wife and I went out to Eddie V’s after hearing positive feedback. It is one of the half dozen new steakhouses in Boca and is in Mizner in East Boca. It was New Year’s Eve, and the kids were in NYC seeing Grandma. We were living on the wild side and sat down for a 5:45 pm dinner as they told us we needed to be out by 7pm as the restaurant was full.
The large restaurant has a massive bar and ample seating. The build out is nice, not Miami or NYC nice, but good enough. To be fair, I rarely go out for steak as I feel my steaks are far better than any restaurant and a quarter of the price. I started with yellowtail sashimi with ponzu sauce that was good enough. For my entree, I had an 18 oz bone-in NY Strip Steak medium rare. Again, it was fine, but came with zero sides. I felt the cook was great, but the flavor was boring and would far rather eat my home cooked Waygu from Australia for a fraction of the price. The chimichurri did not dazzle. Mine is far better and less oily.
I ordered Brussels sprouts that sounded remarkable with honey roasted Siracha, but fell flat. They were hard, not crispy, and lacked any real zip. I steam mine first to soften them. My wife had the Gulf shrimp and she thought they were solid. It is cocktail shrimp, hard to make that super interesting. I had an awful glass of chardonnay and one glass of Cab.
The best dish was the warm Belgian chocolate cake. When you tell me “warm” AND “chocolate,” I generally am all-in and this did not disappoint. Quite moist albeit a little small. Our server was bubbly and attentive, but the food failed to impress. It would be hard for me to return to the scene of this crime at that high price point.
Ambiance-7
Food-6.5
Service-9
Quick Bites
Thursday, the first trading session of 2025, saw a 700 point swing in the Dow after a strong start and mid-day weakness creating a five day losing streak for S&P and Nasdaq. Tech giant Apple weighed on the market, falling 2.6%. Tesla fell 6% after reporting that annual deliveries declined in 2024. However, markets roared back on Friday with the S&P +1.3% and Nasdaq +1.8%. Tech stocks were a bright spot for the market on Friday. Chip giant Nvidia climbed 4.7%, while server maker Super Micro Computer jumped 10.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up to 4.6% after hitting 4.38% two weeks ago.
The world’s 500 richest people got vastly richer in 2024, with Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang leading the group of billionaires to a new milestone: A combined $10 trillion net worth. An indomitable rally in US technology stocks played a key role in turbocharging the trio’s wealth, as well as the fortunes of Larry Ellison, Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell and Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. The eight tech titans alone gained more than $600 billion this year, 43% of the $1.5 trillion increase among the 500 richest people tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Across the board, the world’s wealthiest benefited from a stock market that defied expectations in 2024. The S&P 500 Index gained 24% through Monday, powered by the small group of stocks dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,” including Musk’s Tesla, Zuckerberg’s Meta Platforms Inc. and Huang’s Nvidia Corp., which accounted for more than half of the stock benchmark’s performance. French luxury billionaires: The fortunes of Bernard Arnault, Francoise Bettencourt Meyers and Francois Pinault, whose wealth comes from holdings in the luxury goods sector, took big losses in 2024. After years of pandemic-fueled gains, when luxury shopping supplanted spending on dining and entertainment, slowing sales — especially in the key Chinese market — cost the three billionaires a total of $71 billion. I am all for capitalism and wealth generation. However, I do fear the growing gap between the haves and have nots will lead to turmoil.
Gallup polls show Americans concerns about 2025. Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.
The FBI is calling the incident in New Orleans as a terrorist attack. The attacker has been named as 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar. He was an American citizen who served in the U.S. Army and became radicalized. The FBI confirmed that Jabbar was carrying an ISIS flag in the truck, and authorities have said he was dressed in military gear. The FBI said they also found weapons and a potential IED were located in his vehicle. Fifteen people were killed and 35 injured in the terror attack. The Sugar Bowl was delayed one day, and there were many empty seats post the attack. In a separate incident in Vegas, a TSLA truck blew up filled with fireworks and the driver shot himself in the head just before detonation. Stories suggest he was a big Trump supporter. The investigation suggested the bombing was to “cleanse his mind” of brothers lost according to his manifesto. He struggled with mental health and wanted to gain attention for his struggles and concerns around US leadership. Lastly, this is a very frightening article regarding a former CIA officer’s concerns of 1,000 Al-Qaeda fighters in the US and expects a 2025 attack on US soil. The 8-minute discussion is SCARY.
The explosive rise in luxury watch prices during and after the pandemic, particularly for Rolex and other prestigious brands like Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, F.P. Journe, and Richard Mille, was driven by a combination of unique market conditions. These included heightened demand, supply chain disruptions, and speculative investment, all of which pushed prices to unprecedented levels. Clearly, government handouts played a part. By 2022, luxury watch prices had peaked. However, as the market began to normalize, prices in the secondary market adjusted. While some models saw price corrections, high-demand models like the Rolex Day-Date and GMT-Master II continued to hold their value, reflecting the brand’s strong position in the market. The first chart shows Rolex prices peaking in 2022 and coming down in recent years and the 2nd chart gives specific model pricing. However, Rolex just raised prices as much as 8% citing rising gold input costs.
This San Francisco Chronicle article outlines tanking wine sales at SF restaurants. A high end restaurant in San Fran, Acquerello, has seen wine sales -24% in 2024 with white wine -13% and red -27%. According to TOAST, alcohol sales in general are down, but wine has been hit the hardest. Red wine has such a bad rap right now,” According to Molly Greene, wine director at Michelin starred San Francisco restaurant Saison. When you consider higher labor and food costs while alcohol sales (highest margin) are slipping, restaurants are feeling the pressure. The article discusses price push-back as a glass of wine has become incredibly expensive. At times, when I go out to eat, a glass can be $50 for a bottle that does not even cost that much in a wine shop. Despite being a huge wine drinker, I have cut back on wine in restaurants due to the obnoxious pricing. Some restaurants are allowing dinners to split the wine pairing with dinner to give each a small taste to get some wine sales. Red wine sales are plummeting in France as well (-90% since 1970). Twenty percent of French teens have never tasted alcohol and the country’s consumption is moving to beer. “With every generation in France we see the change. If the grandfather drank 300 liters of red wine per year, the father drinks 180 liters and the son, 30 liters,” said CIVB board member Jean-Pierre Durand.
Election/Politics
Johnson tells Republicans Trump wants one big policy bill as party charts course on agenda
I think early wins are important. I would split the bill given the slim majority.
Trump sentencing set for Jan. 10, judge leans toward no jail, no probation, no fine
Democrats’ Problem With Big Cities, in Three Charts
Bloomberg article outlines the lack of affordable housing, a need for safe streets, and too many homeless.
The Levi Strauss Heir Elected to Save San Francisco
A mayor-elect with ties to the tech sector but no political experience plans to take a heavy-handed approach to turning the city around. He is focused on inefficiencies and improving public safety. Good luck.
Congress on edge after surge of threats, swatting attacks against lawmakers
Elon Musk told to stick to US politics after latest UK blast
This is a breaking story that is incredibly concerning if it proves to be true regarding “rape gangs” in the UK. This article outlines how the grooming gangs scandal was covered up. The stories are horrific. People should get the death penalty over some of these child rapes.
Washington Post cartoonist quits after drawing of Bezos, other billionaires with Trump rejected
I think the cartoon in the link is funny & accurate-makes Bezos look bad.
Middle East
Inside Israel’s daring raid that destroyed Iran-funded underground missile factory in Syria
Welcome to many Northeast colleges today. Jew hate everywhere.
Douglas Murray: From college campuses to Afghanistan, we let Islamic terrorism rise again
I met Murray and went to his speech. He is amazing.
China helping Houthis obtain weapons for unmolested Red Sea passage
Hamas releases video of hostage Liri Albag, 19. Parents: ‘This is not the Liri we know’
Other Headlines
U.S. dollar index hits more than two-year high as markets brace for Trump return
Ken Griffin’s flagship hedge fund at Citadel climbs 15.1% in 2024
Funny, Pelosi is a much better investor than Ken Griffin! Nothing to see here folks. US politicians trade on on inside information with no consequence. If you do it, watch out. Jail.
Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025
Hindenburg Research shorts Carvana, calling company’s turnaround a ‘mirage’
Biden decides to block Nippon Steel’s $15 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel
The prime-time TV numbers are in for 2024 - and there's plenty of proof America still loves its sports. 75 of the 100 most-watched telecasts over the past year were sporting events, including a record-breaking Super Bowl LVIII. I am not a Goodell fan, but the NFL is king.
Knife-wielding maniac with 87 priors on the loose in NYC after two subway stabbings, cops say
87 prior arrests? Why is the guy on the streets. Bragg????
Woman accused of stabbing postal worker over spot in NYC deli line has history of knife violence
Wait. The system failed us again? She had 5 prior arrests.
I want these kids to be put in jail. They beat up a 71-year-old woman. Of course, Bragg will probably not press charges and they will do it again if they are ever caught. Pictures in the link. Disgusting stretch for the NYC subway that the idiot Governor declared safe.
Desperately seeking NYC cops: NYPD applicants have plummeted as force tries to hire 1,600 officers
I wonder why no one wants to be a NYC cop? The # of prospective members went from 18k in 2017 to 8k this year. Maybe the awful crime policies and the vilification of police (Defund Police) is not the best way forward.
Morgan Stanley joins Goldman, Citi in exodus from UN-backed climate alliance
How many millions of jobs will be replaced by 2030 between AI and robots?
Obsession with healthy eating can lead to addiction and mental illness, study finds
Switching to a ‘clean’ diet following the excesses of Christmas may negatively affect your body and mind, warn experts
Teen condom use is falling for a disturbing reason
Concerning article suggesting the rise in pornography may be to blame.
U.S. surgeon general calls for cancer risk warnings on alcohol labels
NYers are so desperate for this pizza, they’re hiring TaskRabbits to wait in line
Hearing amazing things about Lucali.
Watch this short video of an 11-year-old who got a full scholarship offer for college football. The kid is JACKED and ran a 4.29 second 40 yard dash.
Archaeologists stunned as 115,000-year-old human footprints found in mysterious place
Polar Vortex Forecast Gets Worse as Meteorologists Sound Alarm
Cattle Futures Hit New Record High As Polar Blast Set To Hit Beef Supply
China downplays mystery virus deaths and claims safe to travel despite pandemic fears
Funerals are reportedly being performed en-masse as deaths mount from the mystery condition five years after the first cases of Covid were detected.
Scientists say they’ve deciphered ‘alien’ signals from outer space
Sadly, this is not the evidence I am looking for on alien life. The article suggests it could be coming from collapsed stars or black holes. Show me pictures of aliens already.
Real Estate
The WSJ claims the nine-figure home sale isn’t going anywhere in this article. Across the U.S., 2024 was one of the slowest years for home sales since the 1990s. But it was a banner year for the ultrahigh end of the market, where buyers are so wealthy that interest rates or market fluctuations have little impact. In 2024, there were at least seven single-family home sales recorded in the U.S. for $100 million or more, up from five in 2023, according to data gathered by appraiser Jonathan Miller and The Wall Street Journal. That’s just under 2021’s record eight deals, property records show. Miami and Palm Beach, Fla., continue to be among the most active markets for ultraexpensive deals, a trend that intensified during the pandemic, real-estate agents said. But the market in New York’s Hamptons has been slower than in the past, with no nine-figure sales in 2024 and just one sale over $50 million, according to Miller’s data.
There’s good news in the housing market to close out 2024: there’s a lot more supply. The bad news: a lot of that supply is stale, sitting unsold for much longer than usual. Active listings in November were 12.1% higher than they were in November 2023 and hit the highest level since 2020, according to a new report from Redfin. More than half of those homes (54.5%), however, had sat on the market for at least 60 days without going under a contract of sale. That is the highest share for any November since 2019 and is up nearly 50% from the year before, according to the report. “A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Redfin agent Meme Loggins, who was quoted in the report. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”
This is not the kind of home I would generally share on the RR, but the virtual reality windows were something I had never seen (see link for pics). A mind-blowing Florida mansion with 'virtual reality windows' that offers the perfect defense against storms has hit the market for $1.75 million. The extraordinary property located on the coast of Clearwater, Florida, is no ordinary home. Nicknamed the 'Race Car Mansion,' it was built in 2012 by an IndyCar team owner who spared no expense on design elements, according to its listing on Zillow. The windows take inhabitants to a 'space and time of your choosing,' the listing states, from a stunning beach at sunset to the Champs Elysées in Paris.
A sharp rise in mortgage interest rates toward the end of December took its toll on mortgage demand, hitting just as the housing market entered its typically slowest stretch of the year. Total mortgage application volume for the two weeks ended Dec. 27, 2024, dropped 21.9% compared with the week before that period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. An additional adjustment was made to account for the Christmas holiday. The MBA released two weeks of data after being closed over the holiday.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #750 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.