Opening Comments
My last note was about being Dilated in Delray with blurred vision. The most opened links were the five foods that increase dementia risk and the video of the pizza delivery in a snowstorm that led to a large GoFundMe page.
I have lived in South Florida since 2017, and the past week or so has seen some of the consistent coldest temperatures since I arrived. Lows in the 40s in the evening have resulted in me wearing long pants with regularity. It is funny that people are complaining while much of the country is 40 degrees colder. This week it warms up.
Cold fronts make the sailfish bite in South Florida. I did not go, but was told Friday was a record day as one boat caught 43 and another 37 sailfish in a matter of hours. Many boats caught 25 or more. Peak sailfish season is always right around the Super Bowl. Some pictures of my sailfish from prior days.
Markets
The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs
Shipping Rates Declining
Sexless Youth in America
Gender Dysphoria in Kids
South Florida Condo Issues
$150mm Miami Listing
Declining Home Sales (Graphs)
Video of the Day-Congress Insider Trading Video
I have been incredibly critical of Congress and Fed officials for trading with information not in the public domain. In this short video of AOC being interviewed by Jon Stewart, she openly admits how ridiculous the current policies are today. Yes, there is some profanity. Worth the 1.5-minute video. BOTH parties are guilty.
A Complete Unknown
I am a big Bob Dylan fan and believe he is one of the best songwriters ever. My favorite Dylan song is “Tangled Up in Blue.” I started playing guitar around age 40 and practiced a bit to get decent. Sadly, with all the demands on my time, I rarely play anymore. After watching the new Bob Dylan movie, A Complete Unknown, I think I will pick up my old Martin guitar and start playing again. I needed a bit of motivation, and watching Timothee Chalamet perform as Dylan was the spark I needed. Dylan plays guitar in a specific manner, and I felt the actor did a very nice job of becoming the world-famous musician. In the movie, out of nowhere, Dylan bursts on to the NYC music scene and changes the face of music forever. A Complete Unknown received eight Oscar nominations.
The film was entertaining, and the cast did a nice job, especially Chalamet and Monica Barbaro (Joan Baez). Ed Norton was amazing as Pete Seeger and Ellie Fanning played Sylvie Russo, Dylan’s love interest. She was excellent as well. I felt the set and costume designers did an amazing job recreating NYC in the 1960s. I am an adamant non-smoker who has never tried a cigarette. If for some odd reason the casting director had called me, I would have been a hard-pass as Chalamet must have smoked 100 cigarettes in the movie. Was it the best movie of all time? No, it was a bit long and did not touch on some of the things I would have liked, but I would recommend it.
I remember the first time I was able to play the harmonica and strum a guitar at the same time. I was living on the Upper East Side and sitting on my blue couch. It was one of the biggest accomplishments of my life. It took me months to play them simultaneously and enjoyed playing Dylan and Neil Young songs at one point. Sadly, my voice is awful, but that would not prevent me from belting out my favorite classic rock tunes. If I have a couple glasses of wine, I am convinced I am a rock star. Watching Chalamet play guitar, and harmonica effortlessly was remarkable and brought back some fun memories. Sadly, the last time I saw Dylan in concert in NYC at the Beacon Theater, it was disappointing, to say the least. Dylan will forever be known as a top songwriter and his songwriting catalog sold for over $300mm in 2020. Check out the movie, A Complete Unknown. It gets a 96% Popcorn Rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Quick Bites
All three major averages posted their second straight positive week, signaling that the bull market is back in full force after December’s pullback. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose around 1.7% this week, while the Dow climbed 2.2%. In addition to hitting fresh intraday records this week, the S&P 500 also notched a new all-time closing high on Thursday. Despite Friday’s retreat, excitement toward Trump’s pro-business policies has largely pushed risk assets higher this week as investors focused on his inauguration. The 10-Year Treasury yield was unchanged on the week and closed at 4.61%. Remember the yield was 4.8% two weeks ago. Bitcoin was also largely unchanged on the week closing at almost $105k.
I thought this tweet by Global Markets Investor was interesting. Yes, markets have been a bit choppy, but the market mood post-election has been fairly positive, and new highs have been set. Warren Buffet indicator hits AN ALL-TIME HIGH. The US stock market to GDP ratio reached 207%, exceeding the previous record of 200% set before the 2022 bear market. The ratio is also WELL above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble top. By comparison, the 20-year average is 120%. Does this mean a crash is imminent? No, it does not, but it is something to keep your eyes on.
I am a big fan of Peter Boockvar, CIO of the Bleakley Financial Group, and read his Boock Report. I found this commentary in Friday’s note and did some research to find the chart. As the Houthis said they were going to stop targeting ships in the Red Sea, for now, the Shanghai to Rotterdam container route price fell by 19% w/o/w to the lowest since October. They also fell for the trips to NY and LA but less so. The impact of Trump strikes again. Note the sharp declines in the past couple weeks for shipping routes.
I am 55 years old and can tell you things are very different today than in the 1980s and 1990s in many respects. I did not have a cell phone or computer until age 27. There was no social media and meeting a date meant going up to speak with someone in person, not Snapping, DMing, texting, swiping, or whatever the hell happens today. This article is about young adults having far less sex than prior decades. “In sum, for young adult males, sexlessness has roughly doubled across all measures over the last 10 years or so. For young adult females, it has risen by roughly 50 percent,” the Institute of Family Studies (IFS), which published an analysis of the study, reported. Besides the fact that virginity appears to be trending, the numbers also showed big jumps in the numbers of sexually active men and women in the 22-34 bracket reporting a serious lack of loving. A whopping 24% of males 22-34 had not had sex in the year 2022-2023 — up from 9% in 2013-15. For females, the number was 13%, up from 8%. And when asked if they’d had sex in the last three months, 35% of men said no — another big jump from 20%. Women didn’t fare much better, with 31% concurring this time around, up from 21%. The IFS said that across all categories, the data showed that the number of sex-starved young men had approximately doubled during the last decade. For women, the number was 50 percent. Is it the rise of social media and smartphones? Video games? Kids seem to “go steady” with people far less today.
I was blown away by the article about gender dysphoria in kids today. The number of children who think they are wrong gender surged 50-fold according to a new study. According to the study, girls suffer dysphoria twice as often as boys. Woke teaching in schools and social media are to blame for the unbelievable growth of gender dysphoria. I have spoken with dozens of parents of children going through this and the common themes are notable (school or social media). Note the charts from noted author Jonathan Haidt (The Anxious Generation) on the subject of the growth of issues in teens coinciding with the growth of social media starting in 2012. Not a coincidence.
Politics
Trump Davos remarks target big banks, oil prices, European regulators
Trump was quite aggressive in his comments and went after the CEO of Bank of America. I just feel Davos has lost its luster. Private jet usage at Davos was +170% this year. Glad to see all those environmentalists monitoring their carbon footprint.
Trump shuts off access to asylum, plans to send 10,000 troops to border
Trump's ICE racks up hundreds of arrests, including illegal immigrants arrested for horror crimes
'Deportation flights have begun' as Trump sends 'strong and clear message,' White House says
Trump suspends US foreign assistance for 90 days pending reviews
With the natural disasters and aid needed in our own country and the billions of wasted aid given out globally, I support this policy. Let’s be sure we know where the money is going and help our people first. If you take the time to look at the omnibus bills and where some of your hard-earned money goes, I promise that you will be livid.
Senate DOGE caucus takes aim at $1.8B government fund for candy, comic books: ‘Purely propaganda’
The Federal government is not the most efficient manager of capital. The waste is in the trillions.
Trump recommends ending FEMA ahead of California fire site visit
Denmark in ‘crisis mode’ after ‘horrendous’ phone call from Trump demanding to buy Greenland
President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
This kind of comment is stupid. The President should not be influencing rate policy. Having said that, I have little faith in the Fed, and they get it wrong a lot.
Hegseth confirmed as Trump’s defense secretary in tie-breaking vote despite turmoil over his conduct
I have no way of knowing which accusations of Hegseth are true or false. I feel there are better candidates for this job.
Trump signs executive order promoting crypto, paving way for digital asset stockpile
Trump sits down for a wide-ranging interview with Sean Hannity.
Can Trump force the hand of NATO allies to spend up to 5% of GDP on defense?
Trump orders release of long-secret final files on JFK, RFK, MLK assassinations
Next, I want Area 51 and all the UFO information.
Constitutional amendment to allow Trump third term introduced in the House
Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee introduced the measure, as the 22nd Amendment bars anyone form being elected to more than two terms.
CA Fires
However, firefighters gained ground on Thursday on the Hughes fire. Good progress had been made on the fires and heavy winds had new fires blazing. Rain came this weekend to help with the fires.
The recent wildfires in Los Angeles County put more than $40 billion of real estate value at risk, according to a new report from Realtor.com.® Since the Eaton and Palisades wildfires started on Jan. 7, their boundaries have expanded to encompass more than 15,800 residential properties, with a total value of $40.3 billion. The median home within the boundaries of the Eaton fire has an estimated $1.3 million value, while the typical home in the Palisades fire boundary has an estimated value of $3 million.
LA Mayor Karen Bass’s approval rating tanks, 43% in blue city would even vote Republican
Gavin Newsom says there’s not a “spigot” that can be turned on to solve California’s water problems.
Here’s a video of 20,000 cubic feet per second of water that is purposely being redirected into the ocean in California.
LA real estate agent reveals No. 1 reason why Pacific Palisades residents won’t return
Josh Altman suggests that people are underinsured and building costs will be too high.
Middle East
Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing’
Trump is asking Jordan and Egypt to take Palestinians. Historically, the countries have been opposed. The article suggests 1.5mm people.
Trump sending Israel thousands of 2,000-pound bombs despite cease-fire
As many as 1,800 MK-84 bombs will be shipped off to the Jewish state in the coming days — reversing a Biden administration hold on the explosive supply, Israeli officials told Axios.
What happened on day six of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip?
Antisemitic acts at ‘historic’ highs in France, Jewish council says
The Rosen family will be in Europe this summer. NO, I will not go to France. Too much Jew hate. Congrats to Hamas for unleashing global hate of Jews. Once the hostages are released, I hope Trump greenlights the end to Hamas and eviscerates Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Also, we need to put an end to Iran’s ability to sell oil to fund global terrorism through Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
NEVER AGAIN? Survey Finds Majority Believe A Holocaust-Scale Genocide Of Jews Could Happen Today
Other Headlines
Billionaire Frank McCourt is open to a 50% share of TikTok after Trump comments
Egg prices are soaring again. Here’s why and what to expect
Multiple grocery stores have been out of eggs in recent weeks.
Boeing expects $4 billion loss for fourth quarter after chaotic 2024
One of the worst-run companies of all time. Massive underperforming stock. Bad management. Bad policies. Go woke, go broke.
Novo Nordisk shares pop 14% on early-stage weight loss drug trial results
Twilio shares pop 22% and head for biggest gain since Covid pandemic
At age 24, he made a website out of pure ‘frustration’—now, it’s worth $9 billion
He lost his pen drive and was upset, so he created Dropbox.
Target rolls back DEI initiatives, the latest big company to retreat
7 cops shot in San Antonio while responding to call for help from an apartment
So NYC spends more per capita than any other city and has worse outcomes AND has rampant inappropriate student/teacher relationships? Who will be fired?
Adults With ADHD Have a Shorter Life Expectancy, Study Finds
Men die 6.8 years sooner, while women die 8.6 years earlier. Maybe the Rosen Report won’t last as long as I thought. My ADHD is serious.
New study uncovers the biggest risk factor for colon cancer in under 35s — and it will shock you
Calcium deficiency, alcohol consumption, and obesity were the top three.
Scientists Suggest Electrocuting Yourself at the Gym to Get Jacked
What could possibly go wrong?
Dementia hits clever people harder, study finds
This means politicians are very unlikely to get dementia.
DeSantis signs bill meant to release secret 2006 Epstein grand jury documents
CIA believes Covid-19 likely caused by lab leak, NBC News reports
This happens time and again. Consequences for crime will deter it. Look at the murder rates in El Salvador. Taking violent offenders off the streets makes them safer for law-abiding citizens.
'Evil' Southport killer jailed for minimum 52 years
Scary story out of the UK where a killer stabbed little girls resulting in multiple deaths. I don’t think he was sentenced for long enough.
Cloud seeding in the UAE: Could drones soon be 'making it rain'?
After College Football Playoff, Ryan Day should head to NFL and leave toxic Ohio State fan base
After losing to rival Michigan again, the coach needed an armed guard in front of their home. The article outlines the coach’s wife’s commentary about how her family and players were treated by fans. Ryan, you won the national title, get the hell out of that environment. Look at the way San Diego is treating Harbaugh after losing in the first round. You deserve better.
Oscars 2025: See the full list of nominees
Spain, the red-hot tourist destination that’s rivaling America’s economic growth
11-year-old spurns colossal Pirates, Livvy Dunne offer for ultra-rare Paul Skenes card
Despite crazy offers from the Pirates and Livvy Dunne, the boy will take the card to auction. Check out what they offered him in the article.
Real Estate
The Sunshine State's condo market, which once offered residents affordable housing options, is on the verge of a crisis that could bring owners to their knees. A new law requiring regular inspection and costly maintenance for older condos has recently triggered an explosion of sales in South Florida, where owners are trying to offload their properties before they're faced with a bill they can't afford to pay. Florida's new regulation on older condos is going into effect at the same time as the state, along with the rest of the country, is struggling with rising housing costs—including growing homeowners association fees, stubbornly high mortgage rates and skyrocketing home insurance premiums. I have written about this extensively. If you are going to buy an older condo, be sure you understand the financial position of the building, what work must be done, and what it may cost you. There are nightmare stories of condos being assessed more than the value of the unit. Do your homework.
On the other end of the spectrum, the high end remains hot with many $20mm+ deals done from Miami to Jupiter. This article shows a triple lot with three homes on Palm Island in Miami Beach. The real estate was acquired in three purchases totaling approximately $34mm. Spanning over 2 acres with 300 feet of waterfront, the compound offers an extraordinary 35,385 square feet of living space across its three homes. The combination is now listed for $150mm. Multiple $20mm+ deals have happened in Palm Beach, Boca, and Miami in the past 10 days. I am hearing about more people displaced from the fires looking in South Florida as well.
Interesting WSJ article on falling home sales. U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales due to stubbornly high mortgage rates. High costs related to homeownership sapped sales again. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered between 6% and 8% since late 2022, making it prohibitively expensive for many Americans to buy homes at current prices, which hit record highs last year. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to homeowners’ expenses. Unlike mortgage rates, which fluctuate, these costs are poised to continue rising. Elevated prices and high rates hurt affordability and were key factors in the declining sales. Sky-high insurance rates and the rising cost of maintenance due to inflation did not help matters.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #756 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
